stuart: american culture at stake. how much does the average american drink in one year? measuring this in gallons, 22, 30, 38, 44 gallons per person per year. what do you think? ashley: lahren is the inspiration, she says go big or go home. i'm going 44. 7 gallons. lauren: i said in the break i won't say what ashley says, i said 22. 8 gallons. stuart: i'm going in the middle, 38 gallons per person per year. reveal please. the answer is 44, that means altogether american consumers, 8.6 billion gallons of soda per year. we are out of time. thanks a lot.

ashley: we are looking at the busy shopper, complete 180 from where we were a week ago when we were worried about a recession. a lot of people thinking the shopper was done, the debt was so high, supposed to be the great capitulation. shopping activity the sharpest jump in the better part of the year and a half, walmart saying strong across the board, gave good guidance, for a lot of big retailers, 4%, don't know what it is now but following that the consumer is anything but dead. kelly o'grady following his that. we've done a full 180 on this. it's a remarkable turnaround based on, i think, us. >> reporter: there is a lot of anxiety about the health of the consumer. today's data shows you things are okay for now.

we got the read today, a big beat, we were expecting 0.3% excluding, it was one% fully instead and 0.4 if you exclude auto. it indicates the consumer may not be as bad as feared, same on walmart's earnings, economic bellwether, big beat on the top and bottom line, stock is getting fresh highs. the company raised guidance for the year, not something we've seen for many retailers or companies. and a deal conscious consumer, the expense of margins. they shared the game was driven

by upper income households indicating good news from all -- walmart but we spoke to folks, planning more diligently and conscious on big-ticket items. >> made the shot like secondhand. >> income is increasing so it helps me, the price of everything going up. >> going for school supplies, we won't do any big trips or anything for a couple months. >> we have spreadsheets. it is unmanageable if you don't have any spreadsheet or any sort of planning. >> reporter: i love a good spreadsheet. that the guy after my own heart. john deere reported earnings. i characterize this as the beauty of low expectations.

revenue dropped 17% but it was better than the street expected, you see the stock up today, kept for your guidance study which investors liked but they did already lower guidance earlier this year. if you are a necessity provider that can lower prices you are doing okay but if you are a bigger ticket retailer you are facing head wents today. neil: i love the guy who has a spreadsheet, got to have a spreadsheet. good stuff as always. kelly o'grady in midtown manhattan. good news is good news, get the read on that with ray wong, david asman, what do you think of that, good news is good news. david: you are not supposed to do that but i took a sneak peek. looking pretty good right now at least who knows what happens by the end of the day? don't want to be a debbie downer in all this because it's good news and tremendous news when your stock prices go up

but as we heard from kelly if you take autosales out, auto sales were bad in june, take that out of the picture and one% whittles down to 1.4%. not as good as the retail sales number, the walmart numbers are great, amazon is up 4% right now and a lot of good signs of what is going on. the other thing kelly said that was great from the man on the street interview. they are figuring out ways to cost as much, that's why amazon is doing so well. it is good news and great to see the market go up on good news but still a lot of uncertainties. neil: i knew you would find a wrinkle on this. what do you think?

the other issue is may be we were over crate hanging. the fed has to come to the rescue, and the employment report got that going from bark friday before, we had gains of one hundred 14,000 jobs. won't politicize it but it beats a meltdown and jobs and that according to ken fisher and others is not in the cards for the time being. once that starts happening all bets are off in the bull market but not yet. where are you in this? >> interest rates will come down over time and that's the catalyst that gives the consumer some breathing room. you can see pandemic savings have been spent. the substitution is happening,

going to costco, that's making a difference. the interesting piece, how fast to get interest rates down to give breathing room to the consumer and what happening in the economy. neil: the economy is doing just fine, wonder how the market sentiment changes if we don't see an interest rate cut in september. what do you make of that possibility? >> still have jackson hole and roof for a -- reflection on the fed. we are not overheating, job slowing down, they are still laying off 300 jobs per week. we see a transfer from the tech

side of more outsourcing into india and vietnam. a lot going on in the job market and that's not been propped up by these data points. neil: you are widely with money. question what have you done differently, they are being a little bit more choosy. when it comes to how you handle it, what did you do? david: there's a lot more than it used to be. part of it is a layover from the pandemic days when people couldn't go out but a lot of people decided to stay in that zone because of the uncertainty, i think of my own investments, they are not ready to get 100% in stocks. or just after the pandemic when

they seem to have a v-shaped recovery, they are still weighing good interest rates on bonds, not as much risk, being more cautious in the way they invest their money. they can still get those great interest rates. the word is caution. we see the government spending money leica drunken sailor, close to $2 trillion a year as far as the eye can see and there's a price to pay for that and that is inflation. there's a good chance there will be a cut in september. reaching for the 2% target, particularly with good retail numbers. neil: are you in the quarter point cut at the september

meeting which was the expectation throughout this, bumpy though it was? >> 1/4 point the prices aren't coming down but the rate of increase is. neil: thank you, two smart gentlemen there. if you are kamala harris, if you are focusing on the economy saying it's not so bad, she has wind in her sales but how are they going to present it? >> she will say that looking forward things will get better, for the first time president biden and kamala harris on the same stage in a public setting since president biden stepped away from the campaign talking about lowering costs, focused

on prescription medicine specifically the first 10 drugs selected for medicare for price negotiations with agreements to manufacturers, the white house says the medicare will savor $1.5 billion in out-of-pocket expenses for those drugs. those just on medicare, vice president kamala harris blaming companies for inflation but especially at grocery stores, she will announce friday as part of an economic plan a federal law banning price gouging with the ftc leading the investigation, meat processing middle men as egregious examples of rising prices. he will vow to increase competition. 23% since president biden and vice president harris took office. i asked the top economic advisor about all this. >> prices are not coming down, they are going up. debt is also rising. why should americans believe

the president or vice president? >> some prices are coming down. airfares, hold on, airfares, hold on, hold on. yes. airfares are lower now than when president biden took office. >> reporter: you can't eat a plane ticket, the price of groceries since president biden advice president harris got into office is up 21%, the price of food at restaurants since january 2021, electricity is up 23%. how many specific the vice president gives for economic plan, she will go after price gouging and the companies are doing it. neil: you might think you can't eat a plane ticket but if you've tried airline food it is a better alternative. i know you are flying private but i wanted to share that. >> we are flying to jackson hole and they said coast-to-coast.

is that okay? >> you are going by bus but i will tell you after the show. great job as always. sow bedford just steps back and takes a look at the big picture. you are a great political commentator and one thing we are hearing from the administration is an excuse. not here to politicize it but it is like saying blame my thyroid for my being overweight. it is not going to fly with people so this idea you go to grocery stores for gouging, they are trying to deal with rising prices. it seems a bit rich. >> reporter: this is a rhetorical ploy, the biden/harris administration trying to pin inflation on

someone other than them, there is some sort of conspiracy between food producers and grocery stores to cheat americans out of more of their money and this is the result of their own inflationary policies and deficit spending. a serious chance of becoming law, this is something president biden tried unsuccessfully to do earlier in the campaign, called it by another name, shrink inflation and tried to make fighting that part of his platform. voters didn't buy it, he continued to paul low on the economy. not sure this ploy will work with people who are suffering from higher grocery bills. neil: the grocery stores or food companies, thank god for shrink inflation for a lot of families, buying a product or food item or not, the food company's way of trying to deal with that without giving the consumer no alternative.

this costs something, less of a serving but won't cost as much. they were dealing with the same phenomenon we all are. >> reporter: that's right. across the board with kamala harris and all the policies she's trying not to take the blame for what happened while she has been in office but proposing solutions that haven't worked. we heard president biden criticizing companies for, quote, price gouging during this inflationary period for quite some time. people haven't bought it and kamala harris is trying to run as an outsider proposing this sort of solution even though she presided over what we've seen if this is the solution why haven't we seen her mention it before? it's hard for her to run away from the high prices, her

greatest vulnerability other than the border. neil: eventually have to recognize the obvious and separate yourself if you are not going to take the blame for it and that's an interesting moment. always great catching up with you. thank you very much. you've heard this expression. black swan developed that can change everything and alter the course of economic history. that has been out there for some time but with these talks going on to get a cease-fire, you have to wonder if that will move the needles when hamas, a sensibly part of these talks, are not in these talks after this.

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neil: a weird environment going on in the middle east, peace talks trying to get a cease-fire going with hamas and israel even though hamas technically not part of the talks for the time being, the dow racing ahead, concerns in the middle east that iran is poised to retaliate against israel may be single-handedly, alone or through and with its various proxies in the region. that's a big impact.

former nikki haley donor later on i should say but that might be interesting. what we are looking at, judging again, i apologize for my confusion, they seem to be ignoring the possibility of all-out war breaking out in the region as they consistently have in the past. what do you do? >> reporter: and incredible concern for people in the region. will tensions continue to escalate? will the potential cease-fire have any impact? there's the question, the fact that hamas has not formally showed up for these talks. we know representatives will be relaying the messages today and we will relay them to hamas later on.

cia director is among those representing washington. this includes us envoy mcgurk in qatar for these talks, supposed to stretch until tomorrow according to john kirby. these negotiations come in a new milestone, the health ministry in gaza, 40,000 people have been killed since the start of the war and 85% of the population in gaza is displaced. there's been a to medicine out of international pressure leading up to today that these talks would prevent iran from attacking israel and avoid a broader war although even today, during these peace talks washington says it's too for soon for any certainty. >> i won't speculate on what they may do. we know what they have said publicly and they have indicated they will retaliate. we need to take that seriously.

>> reporter: explosions and sirens on the border of israel cross-border attacks with hezbollah. residents in northern israel have been told to stay near their shelters and in the ongoing tensions we have seen, the foreign minister of france is in lebanon speaking with counterparts urging restraint and the press briefing with the ibf spokesperson telling people across the country to remain on alert. neil: i want to go to the former israeli ambassador. i am wondering what you make of the tentative nature of the response, non-response from iran.

>> don't know what iran is going to do or the extent of the retaliation. israel, israelis are nervous. we need to be prepared for every eventuality and prepare for the worst, could be an onslaught missiles from iran and hezbollah, irani and back to militias in syria and yemen which can reach us. we had a man killed in tel aviv up the street from where i lived several weeks ago from a explosive their own sent from yemen to tel aviv. that the worst case possibility. we have antimissile defense system, we have arrow 2 and 3 and the american systems which are seaborne, the fastest system, the patriot system but talking as many as 6 to 8000 rockets a day fired at israel and that's a huge challenge to any combination of antimissile systems.

neil: i am wondering, ongoing talks to get a cease-fire going with hamas not participating and i find it ironic since hamas started this. what do you make of that? >> the messages get conveyed to them and they convey their responses back. the main issue is how much they want a hostage deal. the head of hamas what he would really like is a war between iran, hezbollah and israel, that would draw are all is really forces out of gaza and put israel under tremendous pressure, internal pressure, international pressure and maybe get a better deal. this was on the table from his relapse% of especially -- a permanent cease-fire means hamas wins. he declares victory, conquers gaza and stages the next october 7th. there's also the question of the border between egypt and

gaza. israel this week blue up 50 smuggling tunnels beneath the investment, wants egypt to take that over or hamas to take it over again. israel cannot allow that. if i had a war in the middle east, i could get a better deal on the table. neil: i get the feeling just striking a cease-fire deal isn't going to make iran go away or make houthi rebels stop attacking ships or hezbollah stop firing missiles into your country, this idea that i think has been born in the collective world media that a cease-fire ceases all those threats, this is not the case. >> let me dispel that idea. one way of stopping iran, de-escalating the middle east is escalating against the iran.

iran has mounted almost 200 attacks against american forces in the least, kill american service people, cut off shipping through its proxy, yemen shipping through major border races in the world and firing at israel on all fronts. alex hogan talked about rockets falling in northern israel today. iran has not paid any price. no one has exacted a single price or fired a single bullet at iran. the united states would say to iran, you pay a prohibitive price. you touch ships you are going to pay a prohibitive price and if you fire us forces in the middle east you will pay a prohibitive price and i guarantee it would stop. neil: you have to wait a long time to see something like that. an honor having you.

i prematurely was talking the political fallout of what is going on in the middle east, big donors have big concerns about that but their focus is not so much who they return to the white house but more to the point the makeup of congress, the push for down ballot seats in the senate, the map is changing a lot. ♪ ♪

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neil: a lot of donors are worried about what happens in the presidential contest but more than a few are focusing on down ballot races for control of the united states house of representatives and the u.s. senate and therein lies an interesting battle in and of itself where republicans stand to pick up a considerable ground in that body and maybe lock onto the senate as well. the former nikki haley donor very big in this business in supporting good causes and i guessing your view getting republicans to dominate in the house and senate would be a good start. >> thank you for having me. would be a great start. no guarantee donald trump will win the white house and got a

bid we have a trifecta of harris schumer jeffries trifecta, the country we love would be in peril. think for example what is going on in the world, we have, this is i believe either today or this week, third anniversary of the catastrophic surrender in afghanistan. vice president harris, what is her view that, the appeasement of iran, what is your view on that, this is directly led to october 7th. what is her view on that other she is sympathetic to the anti-semitic protests on college campuses and in the cities across the country, people calling for cease-fire now but from the river to the sea using israel being genocide, we need a senate and/or house that will stand up to a president harris should she win.

may be -- neil: isn't that your bigger worry, she very well could win because your guys botching and so fixated on calling her names and trashing fellow republicans that a lot of your donors said you are botching it and all of a sudden control of the house and senate is in jeopardy so whatever your views on the middle east, the fact of the matter is a lot of your fellow donors are losing faith in donald trump to turn this thing around, he is sinking pretty fast. >> that is right but the point i'm trying to make is not so much the middle east per say about rather than talking about the race rather than insulting the governor, republican governor of georgia and his wife, he should be talking this week about the catastrophic surrender in afghanistan. he should be talking about the appeasement of iran, these are things he should be talking about rather than what he is

talking about and because he's talking about these other things, makes it unlikely, more difficult that he will win and we need a check against a potential president. neil: you are planning for the possibility he blows this thing, she gets in there and you have a checkmate in the house. that is what this is coming down to. >> 100%. i didn't event for mike johnson, very successful, october 1st i will do an event for the national republican senatorial committee. i do one of those every year. this is a big annual event, precisely to your point, we hope donald trump will win. it is far from a certainty that he will. i hope he changes his strategy in terms of how he is campaigning but should he fail we need a firewall and that is the senate and the house.

neil: great catching up with you. jake joins us now to weigh in on this. you heard a lot of what he said. this idea that a number of donors are trying to focus on the house and senate, i can understand that but it is happening among some republican donors. what do you make of that? >> i was laughing to myself listening to eric. it has been a decade and you have these gop donors and pundits, we need donald trump to focus on policy and stop insulting people and act more statesmanlike, it is not happening. he's a self-pity in a. all he does is moan about his own perceived grievances and it is boring and it is pathetic

and the american public are sick of it and they will vote for his future, not his past. neil: i'm going to put you down as a maybe on donald trump this election year. i want to step back and get your sense of this because obviously kamala harris is in this position a month into being a presidential candidate, she hasn't done any interviews. a good strategy to that because she's up in the polls. when do you feel she has to? >> i will defer to the harris campaign, they are doing a good job so far, seen a significant boost in democratic enthusiasm in battleground state polling, she's debating donald trump in september, an important opportunity for journalists and the american public to see the contrast and the contrast will be stark. donald trump will talk about in

1890s tax plan that would raise taxes by $2500, kamala harris will be talking about making prescription drugs and housing more affordable. this is about the economy. kamala harris has a vision for an economy with more breathing room for the average mercantile housing, energy, drugs, childcare, higher education, donald trump is talking about raising taxes on the average middle class family while giving permanent tax cuts to billionaires. neil: it is fair to say that she wants to keep some of those trump tax cuts especially on the lower to middle class realm. she's thinking he had some good ideas and is also supporting his efforts to remove the taxes on tips and all that. is very big for those audiences so she is copying some of his better ideas if you call them better ideas. what do you think? >> we can debate the soundness

of the tax on tips idea but the core point, kamala harris is not an ideologue, she's a pragmatist and what she cares about is the impact of policy on people. show her an idea and i the and she won't ask whose idea was it -- neil: she does have an ideologue past and so does donald trump. but the pragmatist you later out to be. >> look at her career as a prosecutor where she took on sexual predators on behalf of californians, her role as vice president to president biden, what did we get done? bipartisan infrastructure law, bipartisan safer communities act, reduce mass shootings, bipartisan act to close the january 6th loophole. neil: she will have to separate

herself from inflation policies and the rest, that's going to be a very delicate dance. >> she is not an ideologue, she was pragmatic alongside president biden to pass the most productive and bipartisan congress since the 1960s and on inflation prices have been higher but inflation is down by 70% since its peak in 2,022 and we've seen wages go up faster than inflation over the last several years. the average family's 900 real dollars more in 2023 than previously, prices are high, wages are going up even higher, we have more work to do. i would love to see strong democratic policies on housing, prescript and drugs, energy going into effect and to be expanded upon in a harris administration. neil: you described it more eloquently than her campaign has been able to do but still early, time to see if all of us

sticks, we will watch it closely, great having you on again. >> good to be with you. neil: we are following another trend that remains a friend, mortgage rates very low, picked up the tiniest amount in the latest week. if you are looking to refinance or to buy a home, it might be getting pricey but the cost of borrowing is not. ♪ investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. do you charge forward?

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show me paris. xfinity internet customers can enjoy the ultimate entertainment experience and save on some of the biggest names in streaming, all for just $15 a month. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. neil: the news for social security recipients helping to contribute a booster cost of living adjustments of social security recipients looking at 8% surge in benefits in 2,022 after a five. 9% surge in 2021 looking at 3. 2% versus now, expectations that it is going get to go lower next year, 2.6%.

that is the flipside of inflationary pressures. the senior policy director for the committee for responsible federal budget. what do you make of it. if you get used to something, the last couple years as inflation has come down from its highs so too these poll adjustments. what do you think? >> seniors are better protected than any other group, they have gotten 18% worth in the last few years when inflation was 14%. prices aren't growing as fast and that's a good thing. neil: let me ask i know donald trump kicked around the idea just don't tax social security benefits. what do you think of that? that might be a case of be careful what you wish for. >> it would be incredibly costly. it would lose the trust, $1.8 trillion over the next

decade and bring medicare insolvency from 2036 to 2030, social security from 2032-2031 lodz it would be a mess, deep across-the-board cuts to these programs even earlier than they are. >> reporter: that on top of both campaigns the question of removing tax on tips and all that, very popular political appeal. i get all that. you have to adjust for life without that money if both get their way. what do you make of it? >> there's clearly a tit-for-tat, narrow groups to win the election. that's not how you make good tax policy by finding problems in the tax code, not how you make good budget policy because we are borrowing $2 trillion a year and these policies will put us deeper in the hole. neil: are you worried that

deficit and debt keeps growing and candidates plans aren't shrinking anytime soon. looks like we are looking at a day of reckoning. >> interest rates on 10 year treasury are 4%. if we don't get the debt under control they will keep rising, could be in a debt spiral situation, that is not sustainable. the only way out of it is a fiscal crisis. neil: hopefully doesn't come to that. the editor in chief, you heard this conversation we are having. the problems and concerns about government debt run amok, might be popular to talk about tax breaks for certain groups and

constituencies, everyone will want their share. >> deficit spending is at world war ii levels, we are seeing crisis level deficit spending in a time the fed is calling for a soft landing and the economic that is coming in strong. it is also inflationary. we need to find a better long-term solution. it is a crisis growing over the long-term. neil: mortgage rates have been coming down, wasn't long ago we were comfortably or uncomfortably at 7%. it ignited a lot of remortgage financing interest, cost of homes is prohibited no matter where you go. how do you see this sorting out?

>> a really interesting situation in the housing market. we are coming off of a period where interest rates were historically low, 60% of borrowers have a mortgage rate below 4% and meanwhile rates are starting to inch lower but it will be hard to find a point with interest rates where there is financial disincentive for existing homeowners to sell because you are sitting at 3 if rates call 26 or 5, most people are locked in a you are seeing for the first time since 2,005, new and existing home median prices is the same. existing homes are cheaper than new homes. you know something is wrong when they are selling for the same value and soon existing homes will be selling for more. i don't see that changing anytime soon as rates inch lower. on that basis if people start moving and selling their homes, what you need to see is homes

being sold. many investors having locked rates near 3% or 4% i don't think that will happen anytime soon. i don't think housing affordability improves to short-term. neil: the fact that people are showing an interest in refinancing is anyone's guess and they are shopping, walmart indicating latest retail sales figures showing that and retailers up nicely in the stock market today, the consumer might not be as top-down as earlier thought. >> it is definitely slowing. i don't think the consumer is collapsing but in the latest, 17. 8 billion, credit card debts over $1.1 trillion, so you have high credit card dates, in the consumer index, fueled by

leverage and borrowing rather than wage growth and strong consumer. we are brushing under the rug medium to long-term, definitely not a sustainable path we are on right now. neil: we are following ernesto, category one hurricane churning not too far from bermuda right now after this. that work better together. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. presentation looks great. thanks! thanks! voya provides tools that help you make the right investment and benefit choices so you can reach today's financial goals. that one! and look forward, to a more confident future. that is one dynamic duo. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. what the biggest companies deliver is exceptional customer experience. what makes it possible is unmatched connectivity and 5g solutions from t-mobile for business.

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ask your doctor about once-daily trelegy for copd because breathing should be beautiful, all day and night. so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. when you're planning for it all... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. (♪) when you get your tools from harbor freight something about the job feels different - your wallet. whatever you do, do it for less, at harbor freight. save even more at our parking lot sale this weekend

(grandpa vo) i'm the richest guy in the world. hi baby! (woman 1 vo) i have inherited the best traditions.

(woman 2 vo) i have a great boss... it's me. (man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. neil: ernesto now a category one storm with sustained winds of 75 miles an hour or more, could be a lot stronger after doing damage in puerto rico, heading to bermuda in its direct hit line. we will keep following all of this. it has been a busy hurricane season but really picks up steam in september. we are following that is are buddies on "the big money show" kick things off.