you got it right. pennsylvania, in terms of electoral votes, not bad. thanks for being with me for the full hour. our show is live through the democrat convention was i will join dagen on the bottom i am at 6:00 eastern. also live from the convention i will be joining her and also jesse waters tonight at 8:00 eastern on fox news. fox business will air full speeches each night. show me the market. dow industrials down 47 points at this stage, the nasdaq holding onto a slim game. that's it for "varney and company". coast-to-coast will start in ten seconds. a little tap dancing to do. i am good for it. the chicago convention. neil is eagerly awaiting my pitch and here it is, it is yours. julie: sound awful.

are you okay? you sound awful. i hope you are feeling all right. neil: what the mean? neil: you sound awful and i am wondering if you tried that your for this in chicago, the deep dish pizza. if you haven't learned about it. madison: stuart: that would affect my voice. glad you are okay. i worry. a lot of people worried about big job revisions we saw in the last year. they look at this from april 23rd and looking at the numbers off by a little bit by 818,000. i will put it in another term,

going into a massive recession, 2.1 million. i don't want to get into the weeds, the ask matisse of a man who can speak english better than anyone i know. edward lawrence in jackson hole, wyoming where this kind of report is among the things the federal reserve chairman might touch on, might not. who knows? >> reporter: you definitely will talk about that. at the jacksonville symposium which will start in jackson hole, wyoming. people are arriving talking about these jobs reports, the benchmark that is changed as people show up to this venue. 818,000 as a revision down is the largest amount of revisions down in the last 15 years. this says the government overestimated the amount of people in the past 12 months. then 68,000 jobs per month.

the last jobs report showed a gain of 114,000 jobs but if you subtract the average, that means the report would be 67,000 jobs. >> the american economy performed a lot more, a lot weaker than we've been saying for the last couple years which i'm not accusing the bureau of labor statistics for fudging the numbers but i think there is something wrong in the modern age the way they calculate the jobs. >> the revision is done every year. this puts into play the election, vice president harris is half a brain trust behind bidenomics showing they didn't create as many jobs as first thought, averaging 174,000 per month rather than 200,000. jobs have been the focus at the convention in chicago.

>> kamala harris understands we need to help entrepreneurs turn good ideas into thriving companies. that we can create good paying jobs by helping manufacturers expand. >> reporter: when you look at the dual mandate, inflation risk for here, now they are looking at risks for employment outweighing the risks for inflation and that is where the debate will be later this week. also, locks in the rate cut in september at 25 basis points, it could be the talk here. i will ask a few people over the next couple days about that. neil: such a stunning backdrop. you've got to take a look

because there are stunning mountains. edward lawrence, best of the best. let's go to douglas holtz eakin for his take on this. this adds fuel to the fire, maybe a more aggressive cut out of love fed. face value, that wouldn't seem to be obvious. >> this is the biggest in 15 years but from five months ago to the most recent i don't think it will change views of the current status of monetary policy. the fed is looking at risks that are more balanced, need to move toward more neutral, they are planning to do this, nothing from five months ago tells you 15 versus 25. we will talk about it. in the politics, a big impact, you're missing 818,000 jobs you

claim you created, that shows up in the political battle and there's an element worth putting on the radar screen. a big part of this discrepancy has to do with illegal immigrants and them being at work. they show up in monthly payroll numbers. when they do these revisions they use data from state unemployment insurance and are not in the system so that they go away. part of this discrepancy is 300,000 illegal immigrants and you know that has tremendous political fuel in the fire. neil: the biden administration and kamala harris will carry the baton since we took over 15 million more jobs, more like 14 million. we can start bickering new jobs, returning after covid but that's how they are pitching this, it is 14 million, what do you say?

>> you shouldn't let presidents do that when they claim they created jobs, that's not what happens in the united states, they should be proud of the entrepreneurs that higher people, proud of the large globally successful companies but they can't resist the temptation to say i did this and the record is diminished by a million jobs and some that sounds like a great number doesn't sound as good at 14, if you take the credit you run the risk of taking the blame in this shows up in revisions like everything else. stuart: thank you very much, douglas holtz eakin following that, the federal reserve chairman addressing the world, when he sees things and this telegraphs what is expected to be 1/4 point rate cut. some say given the latest jobs data may be push them to do 1/2 point cut. extremely unlikely but some of

these numbers match the mood of americans who seem to get these reminders on a regular basis from retailers who are saying things are good, we are seeing a more cautious consumer. jeff flock is seeing it in philadelphia. >> reporter: a sunny day for folks behind me at target in terms of earnings but dark clouds for others. numbers don't necessarily translate to people's attitudes on the street, target, bigbee today, traffic is up at target, first time in a year that has happened, profit of 36%, stock up double digits, they raise guidance going forward, sales up 5% the last quarter, stock is up 5% to 6%, macy's on the

other side, tough months ahead, they lower their guidance, sales down 4% and that is matching more than we've heard from folks on the street. >> i cut back on clothes because clothes -- i shop secondhand now. vintage clothing and jewelry. >> technology is too expensive. >> i had to buy cheaper headphones because it was like mad money. >> reporter: electronics kind of down, clothes and food are what people are buying, the retailers had good numbers but not because they are raising prices. prices down 3.7%, increased traffic, they are buying cheaper stuff and who doesn't like a bargain.

neil: you talk to average folks, sometimes they say these, hearing from politicians, local or national saying we are doing great and there's a great disconnect, this is one of those days it begins to jibe with what they have been feeling but this is far from horrific news but what' s your sense? they seem to be more in tune with some of this before the numbers that cooperate it. >> reporter: people are like farmers, always having trouble. the reality, when you talk about the real economic system, depends on who they are. if the neighbor had a fire it's a fire. of the house burned down that is a conflagration. it depends on who you are.

neil: all of my relatives are always upset. jeff flock, great seeing you. delighted to have you with us. megan lynn, senior writer. when i was raising with him, i would like to raise with you this notion that the jobs revision seems like a big number but it's coming off an aggregate big number. putting it in perspective, we are still up looking for 2 million jobs a during this period but how do you look at it? >> this is kind of old news. it is funny we are talking about it. today is a big number. neil: you are right. >> it's a situation where as of march this goes back 12 months.

these are big numbers. we originally thought we had 2.9 million jobs, we are saying a little more than 800,000 in revision. maria: neil: does it carry into revised or likely revised data? >> a little bit of caution that we need to say from april to july, that is interesting. the previous guest talked about differences in immigration and how that can play into this. it does point to slowing job growth. it points to a cooler labor market. it is one of those things we have to put in context of the big picture and say things are not as robust as we thought they were and for little more scrutiny on the numbers we are seeing in the coming months. neil: i was looking at the

breakdown of where we were off in the jobs business. i could see the ones that were originally reported but leisure and hospitality is one of the stronger areas. are some of the stronger pockets of this growth giving up some air? >> interest you bring up leisure and hospitality, we see month-to-month big shifts, employment turnover is pretty high. i wasn't surprised to to see a different revision, it's an incredibly strong sector for job growth going back the past years so that was nice to see we didn't get a huge dip. it will be interesting in the coming months. we don't get final revisions on the 2024 numbers until next february.

we continue to see updates to this data. what this puts into play as the unemployment number. there was some idea among economists they were not sure how solid the unemployment rise was. that shows now that is exactly accurate what we are seeing in the employment situation. neil: the federal reserve moves more quickly, how would it handle it if it was the opposite. 815,000 more jobs that were recorded, it begs the issue again for the predicament the fed is in. every one says the september meeting accorded point after that but do you see any jostling in the strategy? >> we seen a very cautious fed. they've been clear they were not going to move on one month of data. they weren't even going to move

on three months of data so i suspect -- neil: date isn't what you thought. >> we've seen a difference in terms of survey responses, we have a lot of models they try to right size the data. they might be off like seasonal adjustments. what is seasonal after post pandemic? neil: how do you see the economy in the aggregate? >> i like to look at gdp. got a strong number in the second quarter, estimates for third quarter, we are normalizing and this is what we all expected to see. we are concerned about this but economists have been calling for slower back half of the year, consumer is being more cost conscious. it's one of those things, the

players that we called our coming down the field at this point. neil: some consumers, the overall numbers are more choosy as they are at home depot, and here we go. terrific job. you probably heard this but has a lot of people scratching their head. rfk junior might consider dropping out of the race, throwing his supporting according to his vice presidential running mate behind donald trump. trump upon hearings that said i could talk to him about a possible position in my administration but that's net got out of our skis, let's talk about the impact on the election. he really doesn't steal any election votes but in battleground states that 3% or 4% could be a decider after this. ♪

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(vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. during my entire life i have been somewhat of an outdoors person. golf, gardening around here. how can i stay out of the sun? so about two years ago i was diagnosed with basal cell carcinoma. when they discussed the mohs surgery on my face,

i was not really a fan of that because the scarring can be disfiguring. if you've been affected by skin cancer, surgery is no longer your only option. we chose gentlecure. gentlecure is a surgery-free treatment that uses low energy x-rays to kill skin cancer cells with a 99% cure rate. plus, there's no cutting, no surgical scarring and no downtime. the results are absolutely fabulous. see why so many people, including doctors, are choosing gentlecure. call today or go to gentlecure.com. neil: robert f kennedy could be dropping out of the race come he's not polling well

nationally but in battleground states including all but seven that are the real decider is in this race as to who gets 270 electoral votes he could be a big, in fact will develop into specially if he pledges all his votes to go to donald trump. too early to tell. mark, what's going on here? >> reporter: there is time both major parties were worried how robert f kennedy's campaign could spoil the race, those concerns are fading fast giving his running mate's comments, the campaign a struggling to get him on the ballot in multiple states. the campaign admits it may not make it to november. >> it's bobby's decision. i came into this supporting him wholeheartedly to win this election and i have to say only one party has obstructed their

fair election and it was the democratic party. they've done everything they can including pacs to prevent ballot access. >> reporter: the latest fox polling has kennedy in single digits, his popularity underwater, 54% have a negative view of the lawyer. donald trump's campaign says it is eager to see where things go from here. they would welcome kennedy's endorsement if he were to drop out of the race. >> we welcome anyone, donald trump is building a historic movement, the most diverse political movement in american history. we will see how the race shapes up. >> reporter: kennedy's campaign argues they were squeezed out of the race and the media is trying to stop them, kennedy was not invited 20 presidential debates with those device were based on polling and ballots to win the white house. we will see if this is a ploy to get his name back.

diane: meredith following that. former key campaign planner for robert f kennedy junior, the former mayor congressman dennis kucinich, great to have you. how are you doing? >> great to see you. neil: what do you think of this move on the part of rfk junior if he does bail out and throws his support behind donald trump, how could this change the race if it does? >> important disclaimer. i left his campaign in october of last year but i know full well that the dnc did everything they could to block kennedy from running as a democrat, frustrated efforts of

ballot access, dozens of ways who the dnc tried to exclude and protecting president biden whose campaign headquarters is the same place as the dnc. let's start with that. where we are now, it's manifestly clear the kennedy campaign is not going to win the presidency. it's also clear should he decide to throw support behind one candidate or another he may make a difference in some battleground states. neil: ralph nader, in 2000 chipped away from our gore, that was the thinking, we know how it worked out but it would have to be in battleground states because it won't get back but looking at the battleground states as you know, what do you think?

>> we are talking 15 electoral votes in michigan lodz michigan will be close. the middle east is a campaign issue there, could kennedy's support for trump matter, to help trump take michigan, it's a possibility, north carolina, 16 electoral votes, battleground state, looking at potentially close race which could kennedy's support to the election towards trump, possibly. let me point out what i saw happening at the beginning of kennedy's campaign is the people who were attracted to his campaign seemed to be coming from the trump republican camper. i don't know if that's consistent today but if it is, if he would suddenly announce

support for donald trump in a few states it could matter and this is not a national election, this is state-by-state election. neil: it is interesting robert f kennedy junior is persona non grata among democrats, even john f. kennedy's grandson, never mentioned his cousin. what do you make of that, forget fellow democrats. even rfk junior's family. >> when i was part of the campaign, there were people who supported them, they were newsworthy, there were those who didn't. in political families it is not unusual to have people on both sides of an election but because he's a candidate the extent to which there is opposition, people saying things that are uncomplimentary

it's getting a lot of publicity but not as telling as stories in left field about the election that got attention. bottom line, robert f kennedy junior, is not going to win the presidency, very well could if he throws his support to one candidate or another. neil: what cabinet position do you think donald trump would consider? that is what is up for grabs. >> that is so far away from my wheelhouse that i can't begin to get into that. i will say that one must be careful and discuss quid pro quo.

stuart: donald trump made clear that he is ready to quid pro quo. >> let me tell you, talking about quid pro quo, i see a flashing yellow light. i can't get into that. neil: good catching up to the year. we are getting new and disturbing news on that yacht sinking. the one that sank into the waters a couple days ago. four more bodies, the total found, two more today, still questions as to what happened after this. there are many ways to deliver a shipment. at old dominion freight line, we deliver them this way.

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neil: big busy day with jobs, fed meeting minutes from the last go around, the one right before the jobs report, a couple factors in the markets, no see you sawing in the bond market, lifting up bond prices and sending yields tumbling finishing the lowest level since july 2023 hovering in and out of 33/4 of 1%. i want to go to francis newton stacy.

why is that happening, these revisions or is there something else? >> we anticipate a fed cut because it is estimated gdp is going to slow. record amount of time with elevated interest rates and fiscal spending is holding us up which we think will continue but the jobs revision is a big deal. that's the reaction you are seeing in job markets. neil: we went for expecting 1/4 point cut, could you see a bigger cut next month or are we on course, you reminded me of that, another quarter point to the next meeting is one more at the final meeting. are you in that camp? >> they will do the least they

can get away with. they will wait until something happens that they have to react largely to. they will do the minimum they get away with. rates are selling off but they are slowly slowly in the background the demand for us debt going down across the world and they are incentivized to keep these rates, keep demand in the john -- in the bond markets and until they have something big to react to they will be slow and steady as they've been this entire time through the saving cycle. neil: all sorts of monday morning quarterbacking, postscript drama from the meltdown a couple weeks ago where the federal reserve was very close to looking at the possibility of an emergency meeting to cut rates project and imagine they would act before the meeting but it is

out there they were concerned about the markets tanking even though most central bankers say we don't pay attention to the markets but they do. what do you know about this? >> you scenario where i seen emergency cut is massive problems in the credit market, some massive default, huge selloff they have to stop that rating which will be a credit problem and there are cracks in the credit markets. we had an inflection in bankruptcy and default. 60% of the us consumers to rest but unless use something that could be systemic i don't think you will see has biggest selloff. there will be a lot of volatility into the end of the year around these narratives. neil: jerome powell is in jackson hole, wyoming. did this revised jobs data change the equation? will he discuss it?

>> he will bring it up but the slow and steady data, it behooves him in his position to do as little as he can as long as things aren't breaking because that is what puts more risk into the movement he's making. the markets are anticipating he is going to cut more than they think because they may see weakness in the credit markets. gdp is going to decelerate a little bit which could affect earnings. those are the things markets are trying to anticipate in advance. interesting to hear this inflation discussion politically. i'm not much of a political person as you know but it is funny because inflation has mechanics, tariffs is an issue with inflation and fiscal spending is a complete issue with inflation. one campaign is talking about tariffs at another talking about fiscal spending at both completely relevant. it is mechanical. i am a little bit excited

donald trump's thinking of having elon musk participate in his administration because the loan is a mechanical thinker in this way. neil: you are right. there is that. francis, newton, stacy, thank you. we are getting word that four more bodies have been recovered in the wreckage to search for missing passengers, let's get the latest from madison. >> reporter: there are two passengers missing at this moment, specialized the cave divers taking 12 minute underwater shifts with hopes of finding the. remote control equip it is helping with the search but what you are about to see may be disturbing. the video you are looking at on your screen right now is from

the scene a few hours ago. you see a body bag on the back of the rescue boat as the search continues for others missing. authorities believe a sudden powerful storm sunk the yacht, we don't yet know the identities of those found dead but people still missing when divers reenter the water today include british tech entrepreneur mike lynch and his daughter and morgan stanley international chairman jonathan blumer and both of their spouses. they were a part of a team that cleared lynch of fraud and conspiracy charges in the us related to the billion-dollar takeover. the law firm is devastated by

that, very active search. a diver unseen said the sunken yacht is on its side. neil: the latest on that, we are not getting the first white house response, goes back from april 23rd to march 24, 818,000 fewer jobs. edward lawrence looking at the council of economic advisers looking at the plus side of that, the pulmonary estimate doesn't change that the jobs recovery has been and remains historically strong delivering solid job and wage gains, strong consumer spending and record small business creation. at the outset of the show we were saying we look at overall job gains during that period of 2.1 million americans,

originally thought to be 2. 9 million. upshot from the white house not too shabby. ♪ ♪

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neil: the third night of the democratic convention, the obamas put on a show. tim walz, the vice presidential pick for kamala harris, richardson here to lay it all out. >> reporter: it is tim walz at the headline spot at the democratic national convention for night 3. introduction of tim walz to the american voters. 16% of registered voters don't know who tim walz is. they try to boost his image as a teacher, football coach, giving okay have control students free lunches at school. >> with vice president harris and tim walz leading the way we will bring joy back to the

country and fight every day and sleep when we are dead and we will win this election this november. >> reporter: chad pergram is cleaning up inaccurate statements like claims about his family using in vitro fertilization, carrying weapons of war in minneapolis-st. paul, come from outside the state, number of students in minnesota who missed school during covid and references to text messages regarding infrastructure negotiations his office cannot produce. obama's headline address last night, michelle obama said trump's limited, narrow view of the world may feel threatened by the existence of two highly educated successful people who happened to be black. president obama said trump was a billionaire who hasn't stopped whining about his problems. tonight's speaker include bill clinton and we will hear from nancy pelosi.

neil: great reporting. you remember andrew yang, former cochair and presidential candidate. great having you. when you look at democrats gathering and gathering happily around kamala harris what do you think? >> fascinating to see everyone from bernie sanders -- that the economic bookend where they are talking about on fox business, the question in my mind is which party is going to make a better case that they will address folks day-to-day issues in terms of affordability, livability, food, fuel, the cost of the drugs, whichever party makes that case more convincingly is going to win.

neil: how do they handle the job biden thing, wasn't so much that he jumped, he was pushed and obviously a lot of the powers that be including nancy pelosi and others succeeded at pushing him off the stage and there was the opening night wherefore a variety of reasons his remarks were pushed off after 11:00 pm. what do you make of that? >> i was on team swap joe out neil, but a sitting president shows up to the convention day one and gets on a plane and goes on vacation. neil: i'm not here to take sides on this but i talked to many elderly voters, don't like the way this went down. i feel bad for joe.

they aren't done judging kamala harris one way or the other but the way this was done it is the way it is, the party seems a united but the whole thing is a little unusual. >> reporter: i was ceo of a company and we had a new ceo and you know who the old ceo does not want to bigfoot, if joe is there he naturally ends drying a lot of emotion. neil: there has to be a better way. >> it's a fascinating dynamic because we've all seen different versions of this in different places. i thought it was impressive the bidens took a victory lap and took off and said in the most visceral way possible this is going to be kamala's party now.

neil: i am sure you are aware of the news on robert f kennedy junior, supporting his running mate ostensibly back donald trump. he doesn't poll well nationally but does paul well in some battleground states as you did when you were running, considering a run for mayor and i just wonder what kind of impact that would have. pulling his vote invades states that are still tight, he garners 4% in michigan and gets 4.5% in pennsylvania, that could be a big impact, couldn't it? >> i think rfk's base is one of the major variables left in this race because the cake is increasingly baked, trump voters will be there for him, kamala's voters are consolidating quick, but 4% or 5% will be well over the margin

of victory in michigan, nevada, arizona. pennsylvania and wisconsin will be within 1% so if rfk's 4% or 5% heads in one direction that's probably the race. julie: are aware of this job number to the tune of one hundred thousand over the last year, at least year ending march. still robust job growth. not as robust -- rather than the 2.9 million new jobs the administration was crowing about. republicans not surprisingly seizing on this as proof we are going to hell in a handbasket, democrats saying it is still a very nice handbasket and we are still doing okay. how do you think this works out?

>> the question is when. i believe there's going to be a shoe that drops. there's a difference between the shoe dropping in october or december. the presidential race, i am someone who believes there is a certain law of gravity or physics to a lot of businesses. i have friends who have been tightening their belts or been stealthily laid off so there is some underlying weakness in the economy. the question is when that comes to the surface whether is this fall or next year. neil: thank you very much, some incredible races, history making races because you spoke to people without choosing one side or the other, hope springs eternal. i don't want to miss a big develop into regarding ford and

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so they can make every customer feel like they've arrived before they've left the ground. this is how business goes further with t—mobile for business. neil: i don't know if it was the downward revisions but look at the 10 year, the lowest in 18 months so obviously that has people thinking the federal reserve cuts more than we thought. don't want to get ahead of credit market skis but that drives at lower. let's go to "the big money show".