this 10-year plan is going to hurt rural communities because of these massive delays, anywhere from 12-24 hours in addition to the delays you're already seeing. charles: families going into debt, 34% visit disneyland. is it worth it? if yes or no? >> no way. >> go to a national park. charles: if you were 20 years younger, what would you say? [laughter] mom, dad, we haven't been to disney yet! >> no debt for me. if. charles: thank you both very much. really appreciate it. i've got to tell you, folks, it's been a really topsy-turvy weekend. again, it just shows you what i call the financialization not just of our economy but of our markets, free money, the friendly fed, all that that stuff. ultimately, fundamentals matter when it comes to to individual stocks, and someday the bill will come due. in the meantime, we've got kelly o'grady in for liz claman. over to you. kelly: i have to admit, i might go into debt for disneyland. [laughter] i'm too big of a fan. probably means i'm not ready to

have a family -- [laughter] all right. have a great weekend, my friend. charles: see you later. kelly: welcome to my favorite hour of the day, of the week, it is the final hour of trading. i'm kelly so gradely in for liz claman. markets higher across the board, you've got the dow flirting with that 411,000 mark. we could -- 41,000 mark. with today's gains, the nasdaq has a pushed into positiver the four for the week. you see the dow up a percent right now for the week, the s&p 500 also up a percent and the nasdaq as a well. they're all getting a powell push, right? this comes after fed chair jerome powell's highly anticipated speech sent the bulls into action. stocks charging higher when powell expressed confidence that inflation is on a stable path to 22%, and he -- 2%, and he signaled that rate cuts are just around the corner. >> the time has come for policy to adjust.

the direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. kelly: that is exactly what people wanted to hear, and we've got our own edward lawrence live in jackson hole, wyoming, with an interview from atlanta fed president rafael bostick. on a news city day, you find ways to advance the story. i'm always in awe. tell me what you're hearing. [laughter] >> reporter: i appreciate it. he made some major news here. the atlanta federal reserve president is a voting member this year, and he left open the door in this interview for three rate cuts. listen to this. it's almost the worst kept secret in financial history that there would be a rate cut in september. what's the destination? are we looking at a cut, pause, cut? >> i so i think there are two pieces. one is the longer term where are we trying to get to to. to me, i think it's somewhere around 3% but, to be honest, we haven't done the deep dive on it because we've had this inflation

issue we've had to teal with. i'll have a view on that, there's a lot of argument as going on on that. the second really is what's the trajectory to get to that number. and, you know, i'm really of the view i let's take it one step at a time. let's not get too far ahead of ourselves and lock ourselves in because you never if know what's going to happen. as we -- as you seen and reported, there have been so many unusual, unexpected surprises that if we're not ready for that, we're not living ready for that, we could be taken by surprise and then have to do more dramatic things. >> reporter: the last federal reserve projections were two rate cuts this year. is that where you are still? >> i was originally at one, and what i will say is the way the data has evolved, i think it's probably appropriate to pull that a forward. now, whether that is two, three, like, i don't know. >> reporter: the door's open. is so on the consumer he sees a split economy saying that the wealthy are making different spending choices, but they're

still able to spend. bostick add as it's a different story for middle and low income households where inflation has taken a toll. >> one, is there stress, and i think we're starting to see that. and the second is really how far up the income distribution it goes. right now maybe it's a third of the population. that's facing that a challenge. if it moves to 40%, 50%, then that's going to be a sign that the spending is going to drop off pretty significantly. let's understand this, the spending is one of the things that is keeping businesses from actually having to think about layoffs. and that's a very positive thing. we definitely want to see that continue, if possible. >> reporter: so the fed chairman also acknowledged that he got it wrong, calling inflation transitory, an important step for bostick. listen to this. >> i really appreciated sort of the openness. no rewriting history, what happened, happened. and that humility, i think, will

serve us well moving forward as we move into this next phase where there is going to be a lot of uncertainty in terms of the global picture, our labor markets and what's happening with prices. >> reporter: so again, kelly, he's leaving the door open for three possible rate cuts for this year. but i'm hearing from other fed presidents a slow and methodicae words they're using -- which could indicate a cut, a pause, cut. we'll have to see how the data comes in. kelly? kelly: yeah, edward. i wrote that down when he said that in the interview, appropriate to pull that forward. certainly, something thats investors would like to see, but we'll be watching. great job this week in jackson hole. always great to see you, edward. okay, let's take a look at how the market is digesting all of that news out of jackson hole, right? stocks are up. they're off session highs, but the dow is still less than a percent from a record close. it needs to close up 485, it's up 350 right now. we are going to be watching that number.

magic number is 485. the s&p 500 is just about a percent off from a record finish, and the nasdaq higher right now as technology leads today's bounce. now, i want to take a look at software provider workday because that's topping the nasdaq. it's up and on pace for its best day since november. the company posted strong earnings and announced a $1 billion share buyback. it is the up 12.5% right now. meanwhile, bond yields, they're diving as the futures market fully prices in a 25 basis point rate cut next month. futures traders see about a 35% chance for a 50 basis point cut in september. the 2-year treasury yield falling below 4% right now, and then the 10-year treasury yield, it's been holding right around 3.8% today. let's get right to the floor show for more on the market's reaction. joining me now are scott shellady and teddy weisberg. okay, so right off the top let's

start with what powell said, scott. the message was, basically, inflation stabilizing, the labor market isn't yo heated anymore -- overheated anymore. we're at that a sweet spot. do you agree with powell, scott? >> um, well, kind of. look, he's put himself in a bad position, and they do that a lot at the fed. he's got the problem of maybe cutting rates because the economy's not doing well. not only are we going to get rate cuts because the economy's not doing well, not because we have inflation under control, and he runs the risk of letting inflation get out of control again, so he's kind of in a damned if you do, damned if you don't kind of thing. inflation's been very, very stubborn. i have my own show here, i say all the time i'll have anybody -- i'll pay for they r -- their flight and hotel if they can tell me how cutting rates helps inflation go lore. i think he's in a bad spot -- lower. it all stems from the fact that he was too slow to to raise

rates the first time around. and now that he let inflation get to 9.111, he's got to put people out of work to cover up his mistake which is not a good situation to be in. ultimately, what's going to have to happen in order to beat this inflation bug is we're going to have to have some sort of mild recession to reset all these economic data points. i don't know, i think he's in a hard spot. i think he's huawei too transparent. -- he's way too transparent. he doesn't give himself any room to change his mind. too much information sometimes is a bad thing, and i think he should just do what he needs to do and stay out of the way because right now i think, again, they're in a damned if you do, damned if you don't problem. if they cut rates, we're going to have an inflation problem. if they don't, we're going to have a middle america problem. [laughter] kelly: well, to that point, teddy, let's carry that thread through. the markets seem to be very happy, okay, with the idea of a rate cut. but it does feel like there is absolutely no room for error

here if the fed doesn't stick the landing. you've got the s&p 500 trading at 20 times expected earnings. i'm looking at this going, okay, the valuations are already high. i expected the rate cut optimism to be baked in. what do you think, teddy? >> well, i'm inclined to agree with you. i would have thought it would be pretty much baked in also. but clearly, the market wants to see this. i mean, it is a little bizarre, and i agree, i agree with your other guest. i mean, the fed has sort of got themselves between a rock and a hard place. i mean, they're damned if they do and they're damned if they don't, and i suspect that they're trying to micromanage if everything. and the economy is like a giant oit sea, you know, you just can't stop it and tinter on a dime. it takes -- turn the it on a dime. it takes time. and there is, clearly, too much rhetoric. my concern would be, as you have just alluded to, kelly, that you can't help but think that the prospect of a quarter point cut in september and maybe one more are baked into the market,

therefore, what's the market going to do for an encore from here. i suspect we're probably a little overbought if not a lot overbought in the current environment. we'll just have to see what happens after the meeting, but it's quite possible that we'll get a negative reaction to any quarter point cut, not a positive reaction. kelly: yeah. well made point. i do have to say i'm very curious what the money market folks do if we do get a rate cut, right? you're going to have folks say, okay, maybe it's time to get back in. but we'll have to leave it there. scott, teddy, thanks so much for your time today. appreciate it. >> thank you. kelly: okay. ben franklin said there is nothing as certain as death and taxes, but i the makers of turbotax aren't seeing certainty in the market as their stock sinks to the bottom of the s&p 500 today. we'll tell you why intuit is being mauled by the bears. and former president donald trump is on the campaign that trail talking about lower taxes.

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kelly: fox business alert, let's get to to some stocks that are moving right now, warby parker shares up close to 12% after a they got an upgrade from jpm securities to outperform from market perform and a price target of $20 the a share. certainly well off that right now. analysts say the street's estimates for earnings and revenue in 2025-22 -- 2024 26 are -- 2026 are tattoo low. now let's look at intuit. this is what we teased during the last commercial. shares sinking to the bottom of

the s&p 500 and the nasdaq, they're down 6.5% right now. the turbotax maker reporting a top and bottom line beat but issued weaker than expected fiscal 2025 revenue guidance. the software maker said it forecasted adjusted earnings between $19.16 and 19.36 a share while analysts were looking for $19.30. let's look look at billy billy up over 14%, getting an upgrade from barclays to overweight from equal weight after its second quarter very strong results. barclays turned bullish on the stock after billy's successfully launched a new video game and shows continued growth in its advertising business. meanwhile, china is part of the reason las vegas sands shares are dropping down almost a percent, ubs downgraded the casino company from neutral to the buy and cut the price target to $49 from $70. the firm turning bearish amid a

lot of ongoing challenges with resorts recovery in macau, china. up next, supermodel influencer and reality star kendall jenner's latest venture is 818 dekeel a la. we'll talk to the ceo about his star ambassador and the intense competition in the tequila celebrity brand wars. "claman countdown" is coming right back. ♪ ♪ business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone.

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kelly: one of the top alcohol companies in the world warning consumer demand could moderate next year. the parent company of popular brands with like crown royal said it remains cautious in 2025 due to slowing consumer demand across the globe. i can assure you that is not because of me. [laughter] as one legacy brand braces for a possible blowback, another tequila name is rising in the ranks, 818 tequila. it's founded by supermodel and reality star kendall jenner, but what you might not know, it's one of the fastest growing liquor brands on the market. the company launched in 202211 and now has a top 10 best selling tequila in the u.s. with blanco. the brand is available worldwide, over 30 countries and china where it's actually the

number one premium tequila. joining me now in a fox business exclusive and ceo of calabasas beverage company, mike novi. welcome to the show. it is 5:00 somewhere, good to have you on on this friday. [laughter] >> thanks, kelly. it's great to be here. kelly: so, look, it certainly helps one of the kardashians behind the brand, but consumers seem to really like this tequila. and i was reading your note, in the four weeks through july 14th, 818 sales i grew by 221%. 21% versus 2% in the category. that's really impressive. i know you've cut prices which has helped that growth. how do you keep that going, mike? >> well, as you mentioned, we did a price reevaluation last year, and what we heard from our consumers is that they loved everything about 818, they loved the founder, the liquid in the bottle, the branding, but one of the things they couldn't do was

afford it every day. they couldn't buy it as frequently as they wanted to, so what they said is we need you to be more accessible. so we, we took a quick look at that. we're a small and very nimble company, and we made a quick move and brought our pricing down about a 25%. and as you noted, we're seeing great growth through the register as a result. the numbers you just noted are actually our dollar sales which, as you would expect, would be slightly muted relative to unit sales. we're up if you look at those same time periods between 600-70%. 60-70% of bottles off the shelves. so it's really been phenomenal. kelly: yeah. well, i mean, kendall jenner, the other than, the founder of 818, but there are a lot of celebrity-backed tequila brands out there, right? george clooney, eva longoria, you've got the rock having one. it feels like every day almost,, you know, a celebrity is stepping into the space. how do you navigate 818 standing out in a space that could be

considered to be getting saturated at this point? >> i think one of the big differentiators there is that this is not a celebrity endorsement structure which many of the other brands are. this was an idea, a fantastic idea from a young, dynamic female entrepreneur who happens to be very well known. kendall, who also comes from a family of entrepreneurs if you think about it, you know, if the jenner-kardashians are anything, they are incredibly business oriented. so we took a listen to what kendall was talking about in terms of what was missing in the marketplace, we put a great group of people together, a talented group of people at 818. we organized kendall's thought into a business plan, executed it pretty well. i think we can always do better, but we're doing pretty well. is and it really unlocked incredible growth with a very young, dynamic social and very kind of curious and optimistic consumer. and that's a statement that's true around the world. you mentioned china.

you know,, the what the chinese consumer thinks of 818 is it's 818 first and tequila second. the same is true of london, dubai, monte carlo and here in chicago of we've really tapped into something special. kelly: i'm glad you wrought up the structure because she is the other than. it isn't just this endorsement. huge upside there, but i was thinking this through. the downside is it does feel like celebrities can get very easily canceled nowadays. things move very quickly. you've been in the space since '89 when she came to you. was there ever a concern in that, okay, now that essentially the 818 brand is her brand, it's very linked to that, did that ever become a concern? >> sure, it was a big conversation, and it actually was something that kendall offered up. one of her concerns was wanting to to take this great business idea and not have it appear if to be superficial, so have this combination of, you know, our brand platforms are creating

beautiful experiences and kind of magicalling moments. it's incredible craftsmanship, and it's social responsibility. and she wanted all of those things to shine through first and foremost. so she said if it can't be -- it's not something we're very proud of, if it's not a beautiful product, i don't want to do it. i want a brand that's going to do good. we're b corp. certified, part of 11 percent for the planet, so she wanted to be deeper than herself and her own name. she wasn't even sure she wanted her name on it. but it is, and she's an intrinsic part of the business and, you know, she's a part of our business team every single day. she's also just a fantastic person, so, you know, we hope for the best with kendall always. being in the spotlight is probably a difficult thing no matter who you are. kelly: oh, yeah, i can only imagine. okay, so admittedly, tequila and i had one great night in college, but we didn't hang out again. [laughter] however, vodka is my girl. that is a long-term friendship -- >> okay.

kelly: you launched sprinter vodka soda. kylie jenner, her sister, is behind that. but it does feel like that space is very competitive, right? you've got bud light, high noon, it does feel like also every day someone's coming out with a vodka seltzer. how are you going to break through? you just launched in march. >> yeah. well, first of all, i'd like to welcome you back to the tequila category when you get an opportunity. [laughter] first and foremost. we need to get your address so we can send you some 818. sprinter is a tough category. it's really tough but so was tequila when we launched in that. there was a a lot of competition, a lot of clutter. we have a really strong brand, it's a beautiful, well crafted, great tasting product, so once the consumer tries it, they lo it. the branding -- they love it. the branding is really bold, it's kind of fun. it's quite colorful which stands out on the shelf of a lot of white packaging that a tends the to be in the category and, of course, we have kylie.

and kylie is a wonderful business person who also happens to have a really incredible platform to communicate with consumers, and so that's obviously going to be a very important part of our marketsing mention. marketing mix. kelly: we mentioned off the top -- has lowered their outlook, and it's interesting because it doesn't feel like gen-z is becoming more social-curious, but i was looking, and you seem to be doing really well with gen-z and 8818 and hopefully the vodka product. i promise i will try tequila again. [laughter] >> good. thanks, kelly. cheers. kelly: coming up, presidential politics moving at light speed just hours after a vice president kamala harris accepted the democratic nomination last night. today there's one less candidate in the race. we'll get a live report on why robert f. kennedy jr. decided to give up his bid and how that could tip the balance of the 2024 the election.

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an increase in eye pressure has been seen there is an uncommon risk of heart attack or stroke associated with blood clots. the most commons side effects were blurred vision, cataract, corneal injury and eye floaters. and there's still so much to see. if you are on eylea or a similar type of treatment, ask your retina specialist about eylea hd today for the potential for fewer injections. kelly: okay, let's get to some breaking news. this is happening right now. former president donald trump is making remarks in las vegas. he's at the el toro mexican-italian restaurant off the vegas strip. he's using the campaign stop to talk about his plan to cut taxes on tips for workers in service industries. moments ago he said he plans to allow workers to keep 100% of their tips tax-free if he's reelected as president. meanwhile, robert f. kennedy jr. formally suspending his presidential campaign in phoenix earlier this hour.

now, in the latest fox news poll, he was only getting 6% of the vote while vice president kamala harris and trump were both locked in a tie at 45%. we've got fix business team coverage of all of the moving parts in the 2024 presidential race. grady trimble is live in glendale, arizona, where trump will speak later, and griff jenkins is in washington with more on rfk jr.'s decision. grady, let's start with you. >> reporter: and, or kelly, the trump campaign is teasing a special guest who will be here this evening. widely believed to be robert f. kennedy jr. after he just made the announcement that he's dropping out of the race and endorsing former president trump. it's important to note that in making his announcement, kennedy says he is staying on the ballot in many states and voters there will still be able to vote for him, but he's pulling himself from the ballots in ten key battleground states, and those likely will be the states that decide this presidency. now, the impact of this race

will, it's still to be determined, but the trump campaign is already out with a memo saying this is good news for president trump and his campaign, plain and simple. they point to their that internal polling about a how those rfk jr. supporters go over to former president trump in almost every case and in almost every key swing state. you mentioned that that event that former president trump is speaking at right now in las vegas is about his no tax on tips proposal but, of course, he couldn't ignore the major breaking news that just happened with rfk jr.'s announcement moment before he took the podium there. take a listen. >> we just had a very nice endorsement from rfk jr. concern. [cheers and applause] bobby. and i'll be talking about that, we're heading out right after this, we're going to be going to arizona. it was really very nice. that's big. he's a great guy, respected by

everybody. >> reporter: so trump mentioned that he's coming here to arizona, but he, again, didn't explicitly say that the special is going to be rfk jr. i want to show you some polling specific to arizona which kind of gives you a sense of how significant this development is today. it shows harris leading trump by 4 points, rfk jr. was at 5%. it's obviously unclear where those rfk jr. voters will go if they back either of these two candidates, but just assuming that every single one of them goes to former president trump, then that could tip the scales in the grand canyon state which is one of those key swing states where rfk jr. has taken himself off a of the ballot. it's a state that former president trump won in 2016, and it was a deice we've state which president biden -- decisive state which president biden carried back in 2020 to that helped him get into the white house. i will say this, kelly, to wrap things up, at the very at least

even if this does not have any major significance on election day, at the very least, it feels headlines away from vice president harris after the biggest speech of her career with trump taking the stage tonight in several hours from now presumably with rfk jr. kelly? kelly: grady, i think it's really interesting that you bring up that a 5% because i'm also thinking about rfk and trump. hay overlap on their crypto -- they overlap on their crypto policies, right? both very pro-crypto. do you think having both of them together -- or, rather, rf fk endorsing trump, could entice tice some of those voters to say, yeah, we're going to go with this because rfk is saying yes to trump? >> reporter: it's a great point, kelly. i think the crypto voters as of today are sort of siding with former president trump, but you'll remember that just a couple of days ago the harris campaign put out some information on crypto and, clearly, they're a making that a

part of their platform as a well. so, beginning or both of these campaigns now, the trump and harris campaign, are courting this tiny, tiny group of voters and a handful of states, and it is obviously way too soon to tell which way these voters are going to go, but they could be the ones who decide the outcome of this election for the entire country whether it relates to crypto or a whole host of other issues that rfk jr. stood for and now, of course, as he throws his support behind the former president. kelly: yeah. certainly, a lot of crypto money flowing into these campaigns. grady, let's hope the surprise guest is not a no-show -- [laughter] like that tease was last night. appreciate the report. okay, for more on robert f. kennedy's decision to drop out of the 2024 race, let's go to griff jenkins in washington. what have you gotsome. >> reporter: hey, kelly. we expected this all day. wasn't confirmed, but everybody knew it was going to be official eventually, and now just in the

last hour rfk jr. did so citing the reasons for getting in and getting out and that he's joining forces with trump. listen here. >> it's with a sense of victory and not defeat that i am suspending my ca activities. three causes drove me to enter this race in the first place primarily, and these are the principal causes that persuaded me to leave the democratic party and run as an independent. and now, to throw my support to president trump. >> reporter: it's worth noting, kelly, kennedy waged a competitive campaign. at one point he was polling over 10%, nearly made it on the debate stage, but his campaign was mired in multiple lawsuits, and he was out of cash. question is now as you and grady were talking about, how there this will impact the race if even it will. part of our decision desk, darren shaw, had this

observation. >> assume they go 2-1, trump to harris. well, that's a 11-point margin -- 1-point margin. that sounds like nothing, but take a look at the margins we're estimating in places like wisconsin and pennsylvania and georgia and arizona. that 1% could be decisive. >> reporter: and get this, in fox's polling it shows kennedy voters breaking about 60-40 for trump over harris, by it also found 57% of them don't like either candidate. the dnc, meanwhile, is downplaying this saying in a memo the little support that remains is soft and disproportion nately among lower propensity voters with no meaningful base of supporters. rfk jr.'s threat to vp harris was neutralized. finally, we'll find out if, indeed, that special guest is kennedy at the trump rally as you and grady were surmising, but one thing is there's been a lot of rumors about kennedy finding a possible role in a

future trump endorse. i'd like to know if we'll hear more about that. kelly? kelly: me too, griff. that would be interesting. you know, i do want to ask you, i interviewed robert f. kennedy jr. just couple weeks ago, and he really focused in on how he felt essentially closed out from the democratic primary race. of course, that's why he chose to run as an independent. i know a lot of folks are, dependent voters are frustrated about that a lack of transparency. they feel like from the democratic party with vice president harris now being the nominee, do you think the fact that now rfk is endorsing trump that that theming is going to play a big -- messaging is going to play a big role in the next couple of months? >> reporter: i think it could be a significant factor, for sure, kelly, because we heard in and what really led us to believe that this was, indeed, going to be the dropout was his running mate, nicole shanahan, has done multiple interviews on podcasts this week talking about the multiple lawsuits driven by

the dnc to make kennedy's ballots ineligible in many of the swing states. and then you compare that to the push with what trump sees as a democrat effort to kick him off the a ballot through the multiple lawsuits and prosecutions he's facing. and so they found common ground there, and i think among even perhaps libertarian or even progressive democrats supporting rfk jr. they see a likeness and an effort for the democrat party trying to control things, trying to, as nicole shanahan say, obstruct a fair election. we'll see if it resonates going forward. kelly: we certainly will, griff. and we will see if this is an empty promise of a guest or if there is someone. [laughter] appreciate your report, griff. >> reporter: thank you. can. kelly: okay. the economy, still the number one topic for voters and one very important metric is moving in the right direction.

gas prices falling every day this week. one of the top -- the nation's top energy analysts is here to tell us what's behind the move and if the price of oil could play a big role in november's vote. and today's countdown closer is tightening his belt and picking one stock that's fattening up thanks to the weight loss drug craze. we'll tell you what it is when "the claman countdown" comes right back. ♪ (♪) you know, you only get one body. it might be the perfect size to do this. your body may take up a lot of space. or have to speak with its hands. but no matter what body you're born with,

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kelly: all right, fox business aelect we're just over 10 minutes away from the if closing bell, and oil is settling lower for the week. now if you want to stretch that out for this year, you can see the commodity has been on a bit of a roller coaster. crude made its way up to $86.91 back on april 5th, but since then oil is down more than 9 percent and hasn't even crossed that $80 threshold in over a month. so will the oil bulls ever come out of hiding, or are we looking at this lower trend for the rest of the year? if joining us now our fox business exclusive, analyst paul sanke. thank you for being on set with me on this lovely friday. do we get back to $86 at any point this year? >> we thought if we were going to get there, we would get there in q3, which would be now, so we

have peaked here, august, summer, driving globally speaking the strong time, so we've been disappointed as you've highlighted with the crude prices that you've seen, we thought we had a shot at $95 a barrel in this q3, before labor day, essentially, and it just hasn't showed up. things have been weaker than we'd anticipated this particular period. part of the problem is there's a lot of spare capacity not just in oil, but particularly in this case in oil and that's really an overhang for the market. and with demand weakening as you can see from the fed cuts that you referenced, it's going to be a tough, it's going to be a tough ride to the end of the year especially as opec wants to increase production. so the reason we've even held where we are is that saudi has cut back a lot and so has the the rest of opec, essentially, and they want to to increase. that's not what you need in a demand environment. to be honest, it looks like a bit of a rough run here. kelly: okay. i want the talk about the china piece of it all because that's a

big part around the demand. the first seven months of 2024 crude oil imports pell to -- fell to 10.9 million barrels a day. i think that was 3 20,000 fewer than the same time last year, right? you've got the chinese moving more and more towards electric vehicles, construction is lowering demand. they seem to be switching from diesel to lng for their trucks -- >> right. kelly: do you think that this is something that, okay, we could bounce back from in china, or is this evidence that there are actually structural changes that could mean demand stays lower for quite some time? >> yeah, i think structurally demand has reached something of a peak in china, and that's in the context of how much it grew over the last 20 years. so we just saw extraordinary growth. in one year, i think 2004-5, chinese demand alone grew 2 million barrels a day. that's significantly higher than all of global demand this year. so that driver, which was so powerful, that really caused the

whole boom that we saw in the 2000s ands has maintained the boom since even though it was offset by the u.s. production if growth, without that we would have been at $150 a barrel because of the strength of china demand, that, as you say, i think, is all maxing out. and i think what happens here with energy policy, a totalitarian, fascist state, that they can design exactly what they want to do with energy and apply if it. so you don't face the same problems that you face in the u.s. of local environmental opposition, nimby-ism, the chinese just designate, okay, we're going to to evs, and they go out and do it. and a great point you mentioned was the switch in trucks. that sort of came from nowhere. we were like, what? and they've done it in a very big way, and that's why i'm referencing their ability as a totalitarian government to say, okay, this is what we're going to do with energy. to be honest, i'd love to do it in the u.s -- [laughter] kelly: i would argue against that, but i hear you.

>> you get the idea though. and most people would say nuclear, you know? china's doing nuclear in a very big way. so all the logical, correct energy prices they're undertaking, they can just jam them through and force it to happen. kelly: yeah. so let's talk a little about the geopolitical risks, of course, because that's kind of the whole thing of it's not problem until it is. with the way that the news cycle goes, this weekend something could happen. earlier this week we had suspected houthi rebels attack an oil tanker. they were rescued by a european warship. we've been hearing for weaks99 -- weeks that the israel-iran tensions could explode. it doesn't seem to be priced into the market though. >> you know, we think it is. [laughter] we think oil should be $10 lower. kelly: okay. >> if you look at the refining margin, oil is actually high here, and any risk there is, which is quite muted in terms of oil supply, and the reason for that is the spare capacity i talked about that opec's holding. so the risk in oil is actually

quite low notwithstanding the scale of these issues. so obviously, you know, russia, ukraine, russia being invaded, stuff like that is crazy, right? and some of the iran and israel being all but at war, but if you look at it, we've sort of played out the russian outage, we've plaid out iran attacking saudi back in 2019, you know, israel versus iran is more about a human cost than it is about infrastructure over oil supply. and it's just difficult to see what's out there. i mean, you always assume there's something out there, we just don't see what -- kelly: just on that a point though, president biden just announced a $125million aid package to ukraine, so to me that does feel like this is going to go on for quite some more time. so that doesn't give you a weird way to put it, but any hope for oil? [laughter] >> it's difficult. i mean, i think, you know, we did think that a trump presidency would probably -- well, he said he was going to to get peace in ukraine which presumably would be to cut ukraine off for aid and force them to settle with putin and

that would have been bearish for oil, some very significant downside effects. i agree with you that the fact this situation looks like it's now going to continue, that the u.s. is going to continue financing this mess likely means that it remains a major problem in markets. but, again, it's already in the market if the marginal change is russia coming back, not russia a losing more. over time, gradually, because russia's such a disaster, i think what's going on internally there relative to people seeing them as more powerful than they are the really, i think. if you look at what's happening to oil infrastructure, refining infrastructure, been very material the, and we've lost a lot of supply as a result of that. you would also expect russian production to start declining naturally because they aren't investing as heavily as they would otherwise want to. think it's actually one of these ironic situations where we had perceived a democratic presidency would be bullish oil and a republican, bearish, and that's essential he morally what happens. to son tear to -- so contrary to

what you might expect, republicans are typically not so good for oil if you just looked at history --well cel drill, baby, drill. >> that's not what the companies want to do, and it's not really what we need. oil prices are relatively low, and this idea that companies are going to change their behavior because somebody says drill, baby drill -- kelly: and that's a fair point and requires a lot more infrastructure and a lot more certainty that it won't switch back in the future. but we're going to have to leave it there. paul, thank you so much. okay, folks, well, the closing bell rings in about three and a half minutes. markets are all in the green right now. major averages all looking at a positive week. their second straight week of gains. take a look at crypto currency, all the major digital assets charging higher across the board. bitcoin, ether, lite coin, xrp all up right now. let's break out bitcoin. look at the spike around the time when rfk jr. began speaking. some crypto experts believe the independent candidate suspending his campaign, endorsing former

president donald trump is a bullish case for crypto, so we're going to be watching that. wall street insiders are betting that the federal government will target mow slow nor disec -- novo nordisk's weight loss drug in 2027 the according to reuters. the drug cost medicare over $4.6 billion in 2022, novo nordisk is about gnat right now. today's countdown closer says one other drug maker might be better to add some heft to your portfolio. joining us >> all right, tom, which one is it? which is the stock that you're picking? >> well, we've been talking to our clients about eli lilly quite a bit, kelly and thanks for having me on the programmed to. one of the things you've got to take a focus on is lilly just released a study showing their drug was 94% effective preventing diabetes in overweight adults so if you keep this in mind there are over 100 million americans that have pre-diabetes. this is a game changer for people in their health going

forward. >> let's stay on the fit train because i was looking at your picks and i know you like dick's sporting goods. >> we do. >> are you worried though that in that retail space, they could struggle with consumers pullback? >> you know, we're not worried about the retail space in struggling with dick's sporting goods. if you look at the health and wellness kick people are on and you take a look at dick's the effective glp drugs is already ripping across the economy and we're seeing it in other companies that we own, even including some of the downstream companies, including the pharmaceuticals but in health and wellness but dick's is positioned well because millions of americans are trying to get out of being fat, obese, or healthier size, excuse me for using the word "fat" but in the obesity side, the demand for athletic equipment is going to be huge so the ability to exercise more easily is going to be dick's is the advantage there.

>> kelly: it's up close to 64% this year. really quick you also like walmart. they've been able to bring in that upper end consumer. are they able to keep them if prices do come down in the future? >> well, walmart's been very fast to discounting some of the inventories that they have, so you want to expect to see discounts when you go into a company like walmart. in retail sales in general, they've slowed but in response to that that's the price competition so you don't want to see price fixing. you want to see competition, and that's how walmart has been gaining share over others like target and we really like walmart right now. >> kelly: tom we'll have to leave it through thank you so much. >> thank you, kelly. >> the dow oh, so close to a record but it's too close to call. >> [closing bell ringing] >> that will do it for the "clayman countdown" all averages in the green today. we needed 45 for a record but that's going to do it for the "clayman countdown." kudlow starts now. larry: hello