tv Cavuto Coast to Coast FOX Business August 26, 2024 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
12:00 pm
1895. actually got it right. 1916 signed by woodward wilson, yesterday was a park services 108th anniversary. now you know 1916. was yellowstone the very first place designated as a national park. >> i think so. yogi bear, i don't know. >> you can always make me smile, that's pretty cool. were almost out of time thank you lord and ashley all good stuff, "coast to coast" rates right now. neil: thank you very much, were following a data record that is no longer a data record in the opening hour and a half or so it looks like we are going to be off to the races and all of a sudden after reaching the record we have since come down barely changed on the day, what to make of that, this is a time where a lot of traders are trying to reassess what happens next month with the federal reserve most
12:01 pm
everyone agrees that a rate cut is coming. what we don't know how big of a rate cut it'll be. kindly is now thomas hayes to answer those questions are brilliant young man, it's great to see you i have a twofer with you today. i'm excited, let me ask you how the market is digesting, all of this news on the fed and of course the intention on nvidia, about going on this week. >> i think friday at jackson hole that confirmed a regime change. with the fed cutting different groups in the stock market are going to be able to outperform. for example small caps the first 12 months after the first cut they tend to outperform large caps by 11 full percentage point. because most small caps have leverage on the balance sheet and when they can refinance at lower rates they have a higher propensity to survive. >> with a outperform by that much. >> this goes back to 1955. it is wild. >> haven't they had the transition going on.
12:02 pm
it's good to go beyond that. >> is started in july and cooled off with the carry trade for 24 hours. it's interesting the fed said the get a cut the bank of japan what did they say now we can start to raise again you're going to see groups like small-cap startup reform and international stocks start to outperform as the carry trade unwinds the dollar weakening and rates coming down dividend payers start to outperform. neil: what if again becomes the world's currency in this interim, how does that affect us wouldn't that be good for multinationals and their stocks in an environment like that. >> u.s. multinationals will do well. while become the premier currency because the demographics don't support it but constricted to the dollar in the near-term. we saw a similar situation in the early 2000 if you remember emerging markets were out, small caps were out and all of a sudden from 2002 to 2007 yet
12:03 pm
what are the biggest rallies in history in emerging markets in small-cap, and value overgrowth with the concentration of tech going into that. i don't think tech is going to crash i think they will underperform because their earnings growth is decelerating from 30% this year to 18% next year will then magnificent 493. >> i like that magnificence evident on magnificent they can be more magnificent. >> are going from negative earnings growth and inflected to positive earnings growth, that is going to continue into two 2025 you can see the weighting of tech. embassies are a little bit more subdued but under the surface there is a tremendous amount of money to be made in individual high-quality companies that are temporarily marked down. neil: nvidia reports wednesday after the closing bell and normally a good trade to buy up ahead of an earnings because it does very well afterwards i
12:04 pm
don't know how long to be honest, would you expect this time. >> is priced for perfection. i think you probably have good earnings but the analysts are saying they have to be revenue by $2 billion in order to move the needle they have to raise guidance by $2 billion people are a little worried about the blackwell delay the new chip delay by three months they want guidance on that. if you step back i was old school if you buy high-quality assets when they are reasonable valuation good things tend to happen over time. this is trading at 29 times sales. 3.2 trillion dollars valuation, just to put that into perspective the entire gdp is 25 trillion in nvidia is 3.2. neil: the upside potential is limited. >> what about those existing and nvidia shareholders and writing this wave would you tell them to cash out in part some of the shares. >> you will have time. even if the report came in poorly i don't know that it will
12:05 pm
because we did see from the hyper scalars a lot of demand for spend. what were also seen as margins are declining for the magnificent seven because of all of the spend and at some point, you remember mark zuckerberg with meta he said i'm going to invest this money in the metaverse and all of a sudden the shareholder said we don't like that and they took the stock tumbled a $100, all the sudden he said i'm no longer going to invest in the metaverse and the stock went back up. i think we see a similar situation. neil: he's one of the star performers of the magnificent seven. >> he stopped all the spend on meta. investors are asking where is the return on investment for all the a.i. spend and nvidia chips, that is not today's story but as margins decelerate a couple of quarters out i think the market is seeing that. we could see a situation where the spend for nvidia chips slows down and more competition comes up for the gpu chips and other companies. neil: real quickly on the political race and how that's factoring in gets to be a big issue after labor day and
12:06 pm
october. we were getting a lot of that earlier this year but don't know if that has to do the race, what do you think. >> election seasonality going back to world war ii we see strength an average through early to mid september, the issue that happens to coincide with the first cut which historically it is sell the first cut young the election seasonality choppy late september early october until the first cut. we think we will cruise along for a few weeks and maybe get to new highs across the board and get a little conservative before the election and year-end rally after the election. neil: hang onto that i want to pursue the election thing there is a raging debate going who takes credit when the market goes up and who gets it when it goes down more of thomas hayes in just a second. we were meant to be the presidential race and where it sorts out we are getting indications right now that donald trump might be looking at rethinking the september 10 debate with kamala harris we don't know all the details but we can tell you this aishah
12:07 pm
hasnie has more from detroit. what is going on. >> let me pour cold water on that. he hasn't come out and said he is doubting that he would attend the debate is questioning whether he wants to attend the abc debate calling the network fake news after big interview with senator tom cotton on the network over the weekend on sunday that he did not like. he called a biased interview. but he just spoke a few short moments ago will offer you some cameras when he was departing the cemetery today, arlington cemetery and he basically told reporters that he would be open to leaving the microphone on which is what the harris campaign is now requesting. this is all request coming after the rules have already been made, we will get to that in just a second. we are at this event that trump is going to speak at the national guard association conference here in detroit and
12:08 pm
you can see behind me things are filling up pretty fast. you would be surprised to know and learn that some of the troops actually want the former president to talk about the economy and that tells you what is on their minds, they're not thinking about defense. that's also undermined but at the forefront as the economy and obviously their families and how their families are going to be able to feed themselves when this election is over. that will happen shortly in just a few hours but i want to talk about what the former president is doing today before he hits the trail in michigan he was at arlington cemetery, he was honoring and remembering the 13 service members who were killed at abbey gate in kabul at the cabal airport three years ago. andy took part in the riesling ceremony, very, very important to those families to mark the three year anniversary of that terrible day, he called it the most embarrassing moment in the history of our country.
12:09 pm
the father of one of the troops told fox that the abbey gate families have never gotten any accountability for what happened from the biden and harris administration and their focus is to try to prevent the tragedy from happening again. listen to this. >> they don't know what the heck they're doing and that terrifies me. we know we can bring our kids back but what we want to see is a military that is in the field right now, those families are never going to be put through what we've been put through. it's been absolutely shameful. >> that is at the forefront. on the backend of the campaign trial, the two candidates as i mentioned are arguing over the upcoming september 10 debate. team harris wants the microphone to be on and live throughout the full entire debate the trump campaign says that her esteem is trying to change the rules last-minute to get out of debating trump. the former president spoke about this and virginia.
12:10 pm
listen to what he said. >> we agree to the same roles, it doesn't matter to me, i would rather have it -- the agreement that it would be the same as it was last time. in that case it was muted. i didn't like it the last time but it worked out fine. ask biden how it worked out. >> you hear the former president is open to leaving the microphones open but he doesn't like the fact that the harris campaign is trying to change all the rules last second. >> if you had to be a betting person it looks like the debate would still go one a little back and forth even before the last trump and biden encounter. some people thought this will never come to pass. in retrospect the biden folks probably wish it never did. >> some of it is really good for their campaigns because the harris campaign skits come out and say if he doesn't agree to
12:11 pm
these rules and doesn't want to debate her and he scared of her. then he gets to come out and his campaign gets to come out and slam the harris campaign saying she wants to change the rules because she wants to get out of it. some of it is playing up to the campaigns in their messaging. but it does sound like he's open to it. he made those comments earlier on the sunday show about i'm sorry on the abc sunday show with the interview with tom cotton he did not like the way that went called the network biased and that's where the started percolating whether or not he was really going to want to do a debate on the network. but right there today sounds like he wants to do it and is willing to do it with the microphones on. >> i have no idea but i know you do. aishah hasnie following all of that with the former president in detroit, michigan. i want to go to bob cusack, leading the cipher donald trump whatever your views it is fake news when the news is not friendly to him or one of his
12:12 pm
surrogates in this case, tom cotton. i get that. i wonder if this is all a campaign thought were raising the suspense ahead of the debate that is very much going to go want, what do you think. >> i think it is highlighting the import of the debate and it could be super important and decide the selection, certainly the first debate between trump and biden played a big role in helping biden when, that is something to watch. i also think it's smart for trump to focus on afghanistan because that really was a catastrophe. neil: this is the third anniversary of the deaths of the 13 u.s. soldiers at abbey gate. he wanted to make sure americans knew about that. and i'm just wondering when he returns to these issues as he did last friday at the border and talking about what's happening with the illegal wave at the border.
12:13 pm
it does resonate. tucked into the remarks, even talking about this debate, he did have a couple of broadsides over kamala harris, she's dumb not too bright, he kind of mixes the message but at least it's disproportionately a favor of issues, then he goes into the name-calling. i know his campaign goes back and says while she calls him names as well. where is the name-calling meter on this right now? >> i think you're going to see it go up a little bit. i agree that republicans have been trying to convince trump, don't do the name-calling or talk about crowd size, talk about policy and foreign policy, the economy, inflation, the border that is a smart way to go. i think the next several weeks especially with the debate but also setting the stage, trump lost momentum, he's gotta get it back and get it back soon. he did get rfk junior endorsement, that is maybe the start of something.
12:14 pm
neil: we're going to touch on this little later there's a lot of money coming into both campaigns but the number coming into kamala harris our staggering half a billion dollars since she announces the candidate a little over a month ago, 75 - 80000000 of that during the convention. she has a lot of dough to spend, donald trump's notion kid in that regard, so does he, when did they unleash the ads that become nonstop? >> if you talk to their advisors, this is going to be one in september and early october, by that point i think most people have decided. i think post-labor day that's when they unleash a torrent of the ads. certainly you are right harris numbers are through the roof and that's going back to trump. he has got to tie the biden policy to harris which you would not think he would have to say but she is basically with her proposals continuing the biden policies and that's what trump
12:15 pm
needs to hone in on. neil: what is your sense, the guy who can save the day, not that they're politically driven, will give them the benefit of the doubt, could be jerome powell at the federal reserve, all the guaranteed every cut next month, the debate as you know better than most is weather is going to be a quarter-point or half appointment will see probably two more before the end of the year. the other two would come after an election, this one would come before, what do you make of it? >> that's definitely going to help harris in trump is not pleased with that and we will see, trump said he would keep powell on for the end of his term. but that's going to be a significant thing. you seen and talked about it for weeks, it really does help the stock market and that helps people feel better about their retirement, that said, we'd gone through a lot of spending of inflation has been very high, it's going down but you don't get money back for all the groceries that you spent six
12:16 pm
month ago. neil: is a very good description you don't get that money back, that is money spent. bob cusack the hill editor. i appreciate seeing you. i don't know about oil prices not that there up alarmingly but up $3 when i was looking at this and that's one of the more significant, little bit less $2.18 a barrel, what is interesting it was up very sharply over the weekend late sunday night on the renewed hostilities involving hezbollah and the israelis. now growing fears that this could be spreading. that is something that we are watching for the markets and for human beings. ♪
12:17 pm
12:21 pm
neil: not a middling response to what's going on in the middle east, u.s. crude oil prices, those broad travel under brent, right now anywhere from two half - 3% there is a lot of factors, not the least of what's going on in the middle east and escalating war in separate news about libyan production halts or a temporary halt. it is beginning to weigh on the markets what is going on, jeff paul in tel aviv with more.
12:22 pm
>> this intense exchange of fire between hezbollah and israeli forces so far has remained just that and has not turned into an all-out war but tensions remain very high as the region watches not only to see what could happen next but also if the cease-fire can be reached between israel and hamas. the major escalation started on sunday morning that's when 100 fighter jets were launched by israel into lebanon targeting hezbollah rocket launches. they say it was a preemptive strike after intelligence showed an attack from hezbollah was a minute hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones at israeli military sites most were intercepted by the iron dome as is really military reported little damage three militants were killed and one israeli soldier was as well hezbollah leader hassan nasrallah said it was warm but there could be more strikes as benjamin netanyahu reacting this
12:23 pm
way. [speaking in native tongue] >> what happened today is not the end of the story. hezbollah tried to attack the state of israel with rockets and drones early in the morning we are hitting has below with surprising blows. >> high-level talks in cairo, egypt ended without a cease-fire. officials have reportedly indicated the latest round was constructive and lower level talks are expected to continue in the coming days in the effort to bridge the remaining gaps. the main sticking point it appears as the presence of israeli troops in gaza particularly the self under philadelphia quarter in area between egypt and gaza the israel maintains is used for weapons smuggling into gaza. hamas has accused israel of going back on the previous agreement. neil: thank you for that, you and your crew be safe. following all of this in tel aviv the retired navy seal commander seal team six members, smarter not harder you do not
12:24 pm
miss with young david. good to see you, thank you for coming. this is getting a little wonky but it seems to be one of the first times i remember the market has shown, the getting anxious about what's going on in the middle east, should they? >> i think they should. we know markets a uncertainty, there is a lot of uncertainty in the middle east right now. what is iran going to do or hezbollah and israel going to engage further than this, how far will it go. one possible hope on the horizon, i think morgan stanley that came out and said demand is going to be lower in the coming year. that could offset some pieces. uncertainty exists in the middle east and is going to continue. neil: i would think for commerce, i refer to you, you're the expert in these matters, is the consistent who they rebel attacks on shipping in the gulf region in the greek tinker that
12:25 pm
was all but destroyed, fortunately more than two dozen sailors on board were taken to safety, this is almost a routine event and supposedly our goal was to help lockdown protection for fleets like that. you can understand why so many shipping companies say we will find a way around this, what you make of it all? >> they have to find a way around it, that's can increase costs throughout the whole system of the supply chain everywhere even if a lot of ships pass through there, if you get one that's enough uncertainty to try to avoid the area and how do you stop all this was small boats they came out and got the greek piece. it becomes very difficult with lots of different mass in their and the houthis ability to attack and no one willing to strike really hard inside of yemen for fear of the larger regional war which is misplaced as well. neil: you know what is weird a lot of the houthis rebels come up and glorified motorboats, and
12:26 pm
there's nothing glorified about them. those on the ships know exactly what's going to happen. they are unable to stop it. they keep happening. >> it was the same off the coast of somalia a big effort to stop this amalia in the task unit that got together. it's the same thing there they can send them out in the middle of the night, very difficult to defend for the ships to conduct self-defense especially ones that don't have the money or the capital to invest in passive security systems that are able to stop them, they rely on navy and military, although it looks small on the map the red sea area is quite big. neil: there's been a sentiment building if we get israel hamas cease-fire agreement all this nightmare scenarios of iranian attacks who they rebel attacks, hezbollah attacks from the
12:27 pm
north, hamas attacks around-the-clock all of that goes away. i'm not so sure i talked to a number of top generals and the like who say there's no guarantee that hamas and israel signed on to some agreement for the release of hostages seizing of hostilities means that all the other stuff goes away, what do you think? >> it absolutely will not go away it's going to continue. this is been our policy that's been problematic in regards to iran which is a large driver of this instability in the middle east. iran has been very consistent since 1979 they want to be hegemon's in the middle east, their religious factual nation that wants control of the rest of the middle east, energy and religious wise. regardless even if you took israel out of the equation entirely, israel did not exist, there would still be instability in the middle east, you would have just as you had iran and
12:28 pm
iraq you would have she is going after sunnis the factionalism in the middle east will still continue to exist. it's up to the other arab nations to coalesce together and say we are done with them online iranian influence and get together and try to put a stop to it. neil: scary stuff, good to see you again, thank you very much. >> we do have an official that he has indeed been a arrested link to the telegrams of the european version of facebook/new site for his inability to moderate a child sex crime in the like, this is significant because of this debate over free speech on social media and if they stumble policing it then they can be held accountable. one of the rare times, the first time as ceo of such a concern has been arrested. emmanuel macron of france isno saying he approves. we will have more aftews harr t. ? hey, jackie! (♪)
12:29 pm
evan, my guy! you're helping them with savings, right? (♪) i wish i had someone like evan when i started. somebody just got their first debit card! ice cream on you? ooo, tacos! i got you. wait hold on, don't you owe me money? what?! your money is a part of your community, so your bank should be too. like, chase! moving forward with node-positive breast cancer. my fear of recurrence could've held me back. but i'm staying focused. and doing more to prevent recurrence. verzenio is specifically for hr-positive, her2-negative, node-positive early breast cancer with a high chance of returning, as determined by your doctor when added to hormone therapy. verzenio reduces the risk of recurrence versus hormone therapy alone.
12:30 pm
diarrhea is common, may be severe, or cause dehydration or infection. at the first sign, call your doctor, start an antidiarrheal, and drink fluids. before taking verzenio, tell your doctor about any fever, chills, or other signs of infection. verzenio may cause low white blood cell counts, which may cause serious infection that can lead to death. life-threatening lung inflammation can occur. tell your doctor about any new or worsening trouble breathing, cough, or chest pain. serious liver problems can happen. symptoms include fatigue, appetite loss, stomach pain, and bleeding or bruising. blood clots that can lead to death have occurred. tell your doctor if you have pain or swelling in your arms or legs, shortness of breath, chest pain and rapid breathing or heart rate, or if you are nursing, pregnant, or plan to be. i'm focusing on what counts. talk to your doctor about reducing your risk. ♪
12:31 pm
maya knows how quality care can bring out a smile. but it's been a few dog years since she was able to enjoy a smile of her own. good thing aspen dental offers affordable, complete care all in one place. and new patients without insurance get $29 exams and x-rays. plus 20% off treatment plans for everyone. loving our patients unconditionally. it's one more way aspen dental is in your corner.
12:32 pm
ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. this is clem. clem's not a morning person. or a night person. or a...people person. but he is an "i can solve this in 4 different ways" person. and that person... is impossible to replace. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you help clem
12:33 pm
with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for him. let our expertise round out yours. neil: telegrams founder pavel durov was arrested in france as a broad investigation into criminal activity and what french prosecutors say a willingness to allow child pornography and worse to make its way onto the content of what many compared to facebook we have grady trimble in washington with more on this. it is moving pretty fast, what can you tell us? >> the latest is from a police
12:34 pm
spokesman to reuters they say the telegrams ceo pavel durov is accused of failing to cooperate over cyber and financial crimes on the encrypted messaging app. we also have new reaction from french president and emmanuel macron, his first reaction to this. he says the arrest of the president of telegram on french soil took place as an ongoing judicial investigation. he says elsewhere in the post that is independent and he says it's in no way a political decision. authorities in france arrested the russian born french citizen after his private plane landed at an airport outside of paris saturday evening, critics say telegram more loosely moderates content that other social media platforms and they say it allows misinformation, disinformation to spread online and may be part of the problem they don't always cooperate with law enforcement. but free-speech advocates say this arrest raises concerns
12:35 pm
about free speech an online censorship not just in europe but all around the world. >> this is a message to every citizen in france and england, watch out what do you say, watch out what you do. if you speak out against the administration we will know about it and we will come kicking in your doors. we do not want to begin seeing the same type of action here in the united states. >> it is statement telegram says it follows all european union laws and he has nothing to hide and travels frequently in europe and goes on to say it's absurd to claim that a platform or the owner are responsible for abuse of that platform. as you know everyone from elon musk who owns x to the head of rumble a video platform to rfk junior, they are all chiming in to voice their support for pavel durov. neil: thank you, grady trimble we were to go to charlie gasparino. it had me thinking, what if mark
12:36 pm
zuckerberg is flying into europe and all of a sudden he could be arrested that is the fear based on content that he did not stop or slow on his side and cemented a lot of others, what do you think of all of this. >> is a slippery slope we have section 230 of the communications act which gives the platform itself a pretty big pass on liability and, no action unless the platform is literally involved in it i don't think it's elon musk that set up a kennedy portal on his platform issac would be able to get away with it he's a perpetrator obviously he's not doing that the hypothetical it gets really funky with the first amendment and the communication laws outside of the u.s. as we all know the viable laws overseas are incredibly harsh on the authors and publishers. the u.s. you of the new york
12:37 pm
times versus 11 which is a high standard for liability and absolute malice. on top of that you have section 230 of the communications act which literally allows and gives a great leeway to the platform that they have to be involved in the criminal action. all bets are off overseas, zuckerberg if they can go after this guy, there's no reason they can go after zuckerberg for the same stuff. elon musk has been tweeting about zuckerberg that he is not taking appropriate measures on instagram to crack down on a child trafficking or sex trafficking, check it out. it's been an ongoing thing with elon musk. put in the hands of a zealous prosecutor overseas, every one of the ceos when they fly into paris or flying to london, it could be arrested, there's no doubt about it. there is a political element
12:38 pm
here. i have no idea the level of child pornography and illegality on telegram i've never been on telegram in my life. i do twitter and i get enough abuse going on twitter. and i do some facebook. i get abused as well. so many places i can be of use. >> nothing right here at fox. when i go to the office then i gotta get it from you but we don't know the exact level of stuff that went on here, there's going to be at investigation. but clearly people are starting to talk about this as being some sort of a free-speech issue and is a legitimate one. i'll say this to zuckerberg and everybody else that runs the social media platform. there are very few things that the left of the right in this country right now agree on but
12:39 pm
they agree on that big tech is too big and maybe needs to be reined in. section 230 under the right circumstances could be revoked. you can see, if elon musk did not buy twitter you would see a major push among republicans to revoke section 230 because they believe social media has been wildly out there censoring conservative voices. if that happens here, all bets are off and by the way the market caps for all of these companies go down dramatically because they're all going to be on the hook for wicked amounts of legal settlements and liability. neil: there pretty big market caps. always good seeing you. congratulations on your book, runaway success, charlie gasparino following all of that. in the meantime we are telling you earlier when we had tom hayes with us about whether the markets are sort of telegraphing a certain win by a certain presidential candidate.
12:40 pm
that is debatable but there is interesting history. he is back the chairman of managing member and great hill capital, tom hayes after this. ♪ (psst psst) ahhhh... with flonase, allergies don't have to be scary spraying flonase daily gives you long-lasting, non-drowsy relief. (psst psst) flonase. all good. daughter: hey, dad. dad: hey, sweetheart. daughter: what are you doing? dad: i'm gonna clean the fence. daughter: it's a lot of fence. dad: you wanna help me? dad: aim at the wall, but get closer. daughter: (gasps) what the?! daughter: alright. dad: side to side. when you work with someone who knows a lot and cares even more...
12:41 pm
you can do this. ...you're unstoppable. (♪) wow... are you kidding me? you can do this. at truist, we believe the same is true for banking. things will go wrong for your customers. but your business can make it right, with watsonx assistant. built with ibm's granite models, it's ai that can help resolve problems by understanding your customer requests with 90 percent accuracy. let's create customer service in service of customers, with watsonx assistant. ibm. let's create.
12:44 pm
in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free. now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least $10,000 to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-217-3217. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income are federally tax-free and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217.
12:45 pm
neil: to hear donald trump tell the markets go up is because of it but they go down as the other guy or gal, bottom line it's not quite that. back with thomas hayes on what factors the markets could be looking for, you were raising something interesting during the break is not about who's at the top what it comes to the white house but the makeup of washington, explain. >> empirically if you look back throughout history the stock market performs best when one party does not have the executive, the senate and the house. what the market really wants to see is gridlock and that's a check on power. in simple terms the less the politicians can do the better it is for the market, that the market be free in business be free and that willpower things through in the stock market performs best in those environments. neil: i was looking at a little bit of the history is ideal if it's a democrat in the white house in the house and senate are under republican control or
12:46 pm
both and it has happened that was an ideal environment under bill clinton. how do you see it going now and was ideal environment now. >> that is true empirically, some of that was demographically based. if i was going to write a book on how to cause the great depression. the first chapter would be entitled start taxing unrealized capital gains you cannot make this up, who thanks you would run on the platform. the number one thing. neil: you talk about kamala harris plan. >> you cannot imagine you have one candidate that is pro-business and one candidate that is pro-government. take it aside the politics out of it from an economic standpoint, the platform of what's going to be better for employment and what's going to be better for the economy. if you started taxing unrealized capital gains and people grasping for liquidity it would be the quickest way to great depression. >> normally with the trade and all of that but this would be obviously people at the markets, the democrats could come back
12:47 pm
and say that is not her cup of tea, we don't like the markets but it's interesting that you chose that issue rather than her wanting to raise the corporate tax rate to 28%. >> we've been there. >> and a lot higher we were at 35. let's be fair some people like to borrow and spend politicians unlike the tax-and-spend, the key, all politicians like to spend that's how they retain their power that's a risk. but in terms of the market in terms of corporate tax rates, it still has to get through congress. they have to have a grand slam senate, house and executive branch to push that through so the market is like 28%, you are not way to get it. even if you elected if there's checks and balances that market and the economy will be okay. neil: i've talked to a lot of people in the market to say donald trump is far more market friendly issues wise and he was as a president then joe biden or what we hear out of kamala harris but the big pause he is
12:48 pm
crazy and will do crazy things and that will defeat all the other good stuff that he is doing and that gives them their trepidation. >> this is hysterical, when trump was elected everyone said energy stocks are going to do incredible china stocks will collapse and solar stocks will collapse the exact opposite happened, energy stocks dramatically underperformed under trump they did well under biden, china had one of the biggest rallies during the trump administration and solar stocks did well whatsapp another biden energy stocks have done well, chinese stocks have collapse they thought he would be weak on china and he was tougher, trump wanted to do a deal were get a terrorist 60% and then he brings them to the table they cut a deal he wants to make money and do business and create jobs for americans. neil: the obvious quid pro quo don't play out like under barack obama the drug bank of the big pharmaceutical companies, they soared under him, it sometimes goes against pattern.
12:49 pm
how do you see it going if donald trump were to return. >> and think the trump trade would be back, i think what we saw after he was elected 2016 you saw small caps outperform and industrials outperform in the market is starting to price and a better tax environment which increases earnings. if you move the corporate tax rate up to 28% that's would have an impact on earnings-per-share. if you don't get multiple expansion you are going to have the market stalling on the basis of lower earnings. i think initially the market will like the idea also of no wars under the trump administration, there were no geopolitical wars it was relatively peaceful geopolitical environment and you don't have to worry. neil: they would lose sight of the crazier features in the case of kamala harris they would dread some of that. again she is held in check by a republican congress house or
12:50 pm
senate, it is another game. >> at the end of the day earnings power is strong we are projections of 15% earnings growth next year that is likely going to come around to the ballpark irrespective of who selected. the key is going to be the policy moving forward in the outlook moving forward on the basis of the policies. if you could set your pro-business policies, then 2026 looks a lot better than pro-government, 2026 may be looks a little bit worse depending on who selected in which case the market will begin to price that after the ele election. on balance given the seasonality of election years as we touched on i think a little choppiness in october and we probably will get a urine rally because of the underlying strength and more than likely whoever is elected we will wind up with gridlock and that's a good thing for the stock market. we will watch closely, good catching up with you. thomas hayes following all of that one thing that we left out on the real estate and how bad it looks, katrina cabins fox news real estate contribute.
12:51 pm
katrina, obviously home prices keep going up. even as the crowd who can afford homes, that goes down the opportunities goes down does this phenomenon still exist? >> thank you for having me. it is still a really challenging real estate market but with all that said as you mentioned prices continue to rise or point to percent to be exact and although it's really difficult to make up a blanket statement across the nation because every real estate market is different depending on the region and the economic factors within the market as a whole we still have very low supply in the market. we need six months of supply and we simply do not have that. new home sales ironically are doing better as we discussed the existing home sales. i do into space lower interest rates which will definitely help the market. as i mentioned every market is different, south florida which
12:52 pm
is the market that continues to do well like miami-dade county, fort lauderdale and palm beach we see prices continue to rise about 8% but that market has its own hurdles not being property taxes, insurance and were also seen sarasota getting hit time and time again with flooding issues. as a whole we anticipate that after the election we will begin to see happier times in the housing market but i don't think it's going to happen overnight and i also think we need to realize there's going to be a drastic this untrue difference between single-family and condos because they're dealing with hoa fees going up, assessments going up. neil: about a people quit their homes in florida and put them on the market. i don't how significantly that boosted supply, i read the florida papers is it your sense that there has been a move on for the residents, not all given the higher condo fees in the soaring real estate taxes that they are facing in that we could see a supply and some of the
12:53 pm
states of florida. >> i think we are very much going to see a lot of supply come into the market when it comes to condo sales, why, about a people retired in florida and are getting hit with the assessments and getting hit with the fees that they simply cannot keep up with. there's going to be a lot of condos, the market, single-family homes not so much i think that market will continue to do well even if prices continue to appreciate at a slower pace but the condo market and really concerned about the market developers are trying to come in and buy these properties, you have to get many times every condo owner to agree to sell to a developer and there's a lot of restrictions when it comes to that. as a whole, real estate is a huge topic in the election and we definitely need something to happen and that tends to happen on the state and local levels is a hot topic for americans with inflation.
12:54 pm
neil: real quickly, that harris has a plan to offer $25000 to first-time homebuyers. i wonder what the fallout would be, no doubt it might spur some demand but also higher prices still. >> i agree i definitely do not think that is a solution. i think it reminds me of socialism within the housing market. i do not think that you should get $25000 from taxpayers who have worked really hard. almost similar to the student loan program that they proposed and basically you are getting money, we've been here before and you allowing people to buy homes should not be purchasing and i think that will drive the cost of homes up. when there's more demand. it's definitely not an easy solution that we need more supply in the market, that's the main challenge. neil: it did happen with better and bigger college loans in the
12:55 pm
college cost went up the same, the same could happen with housing. always good to see you, thank you very much, the double up 104. welcome you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire
12:56 pm
ya know, if you were cashbacking you could earn on everything with just one card. chase freedom unlimited. so, if you're off the racking... ...or crab cracking, you're cashbacking. cashback on flapjacks, baby backs, or tacos at the taco shack. nah, i'm working on my six pack. switch to a king suite- or book a silent retreat. silent retreat? hold up - yeeerp? i can't talk right now, i'm at a silent retreat. cashback on everything you buy with chase freedom unlimited with no annual fee. how do you cashback? chase. make more of what's yours.
12:58 pm
1:00 pm
neil: who says the consumer is kaput. for domestic travel are running 9% higher than last year and last year i believe was a re record, international trips are down expected to slide 4% but american airlines expects to have the largest labor day weekend, 14% increase in passengers compared to last year, rock on by those numbers, the very latest with "the big money show", taylor riggs. >> thank you so much, hello i am taylor riggs. >> i'm brian brenberg. >> i madison alworth and for jackie deangelis. welcome to "the big money show". taylor: a fox business alert markets in the bed today had a big tech earnings incl
45 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
FOX BusinessUploaded by TV Archive on
![](http://athena.archive.org/0.gif?kind=track_js&track_js_case=control&cache_bust=518365672)