stuart: would you tell us why you are going with number 3? totally random? ashley: i always go with the first number that stands out. no reason, that one did. stuart: you usually get these right. >> it to guess. i was looking at three but i will go with number 2, 125 islands. stuart: it's the lowest number. the city is facing, as sinking into the water since the early 20th century. and 120 islands to choose from. >> coast-to-coast starts now.

>> 26 hours. we will be hearing from tech investor on all of this. the interactive brokers, with lower interest rates, we try to finance the debt but that's another matter. the chief market strategist, always great to see you. how will you take this tomorrow? >> i think we will get a quarter point. you see consensus in the last 5 days going from low percentage to 48%. ashley: every piece of data that shows strength, the number was coming down today. in the quarter. >> retail sales are stronger-than-expected. the headline number a little weaker, i don't see the case. 50 basis points for the first

taken the quarter. i don't see. powell is not one that acts dramatic. lauren: 1 you say that we've beaten inflation? that move like this, the inflation battle is point. >> the last mile. pretty stubborn. for all intents and purposes, the s&p corporate earnings calls, they did not mention inflation in the last quarter. less of a concern for companies which means it should be making its way to consumers. anecdotal, we will see if it plays out. if you force me to make a prediction, we've got to worry about that.

neil: are year from now looking at 3.4%. agree with that? >> consensus is 200 basis points, to a long-term historical average we've seen in the last couple decades. neil: why is jamie dimon -- >> worried about certain things, he was so worried about inflation. he has a unique perspective. neil: he is wrong a lot. it keeps everyone accountable. neil: let me give you a bigger picture of what companies are saying get. very few are telegraphing serious problems, outright protests from the consumer,

some are dialing back purchases, procter & gamble and some of these others. by and large they are pretty sanguine with how things are going. >> it means we are going to get the soft landing we anticipate. if you were -- we got those two quarters of negative gdp growth that's when the tech layoffs were happening. if they come out of the pandemic versus now, that bodes well so even if we see some softening in the labor market we are not seeing layoffs. some restructuring but more prudent measures, not a panic move where we have to cut 60,000. neil: last question. it is 1/4 point cut. how do markets react? >> markets rally in response to it. if you look, the only thing that would interfere with a rally is fears of a recession.

as long as the economy avoids recession, stock market is up 15%. recession materializes, stock is down 15%. if recession fears stay at bay, powell cuts, he's a hero and not a 0. neil: it's 1/2 point. there's panic into that. lauren simonetti is following the fallout especially in the technology world which has been its own world although some of the players are not as big as they used to be and with the big names jarring folks in general about their work demands. lauren: looking at intel, $22 a share. when did that happen, they are in a multi-year multibillion-dollar deal with intel to make ai chips for amazon's aws, the number one cloud computing network, stamp

of approval for intel's money-losing business. intel plans to turn that contract business into an independent unit with its own board and potential to raise outside capital. the ceo is expected to update investors on his turnaround plan. a lot of folks would say it gets revived today. not many are convinced. if you look at 45 analysts that cover the stock just three say to buy it. look at the other chipmakers if we can move this screen. the question for intel can they woo potential customers like broad.com, amd to follow amazon's path and become customers. than there is microsoft. look at the stock, 435, 1%, other billions and billions and billions in a i spending, more for shareholders. their new quarterly payout,

$0.83 a share up from $0.83 a share up from $0.75. is a huge increase, microsoft also announced a $60 billion share repurchase program. the stock is up seven days in a row, 9% in that stretch and then there is apple, participating in the ai party today. analysts say delivery times for the pro models indicate weaker than expected demand. there are reports the china, already cutting prices by 10% or 11%. there's a lot of enthusiasm especially ahead of apple intelligence, 300 million people or users haven't been upgraded in four years. they might do that when they can get their hands on apple intelligence but no gold-medal for apple. neil: i see what you did. lauren simonetti on that. the interactive broker founder

and chairman, always like having thomas on because he can make sense of this crazy world. the dow, s&p in record territory, nasdaq coming back far rough selloff, if you days ago. what do you make of what is going on here? >> given their trends look like democrats are ahead that, i don't understand that. they are so bullish. neil: this is getting ahead of itself. >> absolutely. neil: what worries you the most right now. >> i'm worried about the elections because you know, the difference is between the policies the two candidates are

huge, i am afraid in a democratic election, the market is overextended. neil: it is hard to look at how the market is playing with the election and the variables here. this is the time of year it starts having a big impact, the market tends to gauge what might or might not happen in seven weeks so if it is panicked one way or another it is not showing that. how do you explain how it is dealing with the election. >> i am say anger i am very puzzled. the only possible -- people saying inflation built up again.

having to refinance the debt is going to increase the deficit and that is inflationary. inflation picks up the stock price, nominal terms could rise tremendously. that the only explain nation i can see here. neil: maybe we have good news more than bad, the consumer is still little more resilient than we thought. even lending activity while still slow in the real estate arena, refinancings up triple digits and a lot of ceos with outlooks, they are not that negative. what do you think? >> it's a short-term thing. neil: those events, say the election is not withstanding,

take it out of the equation. what is the big big worry you have that shows the market is too rich or technology specifically is too rich? >> technology is too rich and i do not see that ai is going to come to the rescue so quickly and for enthusiasm. neil: last time you were on, they are is sensually stuck in the mud. amazon, as a group they've not budged since the last appearance. what is going on?

>> on june 16th, the same point, so -- neil: going into these stocks, hanging onto these stocks, you buy the dip or don't sell the dip. >> hanging under the stocks. what they are doing, these stocks, trying to harvest some gains of 20%, some of them selling boots. and very profitable strategy for quite some time and may

continue that way. neil: you are a good student of market history but what seems like to me and eye-popping number of stock buybacks, maybe a record. in sheer dollar terms 50 billion with microsoft, upwards of 60 and others, we are in the hundreds of billions of companies buying their own stock in the financial arena, we see with bank of america and others. normally you could say that's good for their stock prices. cynically, lou basensase was telling me that. plow it back into your stock but rarely does it have a substantial impact on the underlying stock. a buyback alone, 50, 60, $70 billion doesn't doesn't do it. why is that? >> if you look back on stock

buybacks, it is generally believed companies are not very good with their stocks because usually six months later you see prices so it is a different circumstance. neil: the stock buyback activity a lot of investors love when they first hear it, takes more time and depends what you are buying back your stock but it is remarkable to me this year in particular, might be helpful, and what do you make of that. >> they see something i do not see, that is all i can say. neil: you sound like a bear.

>> i see a potential democratic wing in the elections and i am afraid of stronger democratic appointees to various agencies. and text policies published by kamala harris, do not think it is favorable to the economy. neil: kamala harris were to win, she might be stymied by republican house and/or senate, split government. >> don't forget in two years,

and so what happens show up in two years. neil: the house is crucial for control and see where that goes. always fun having you. enjoyed having you on. >> thank you very much. neil: we are expected to hear from donald trump making his first remarks since the second assassination attempt on the golf course in florida. he might be weighing in on something near and dear to him. he is going on with his schedule, changing not a thing after this.

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time we have in person remarks, not just audio remarks is the second assassination attempt in florida. >> this is his first campaign stop getting back into the swing of things on sunday. everyone is talking security. i haven't noticed anything difficult in security. as it has been since the butler, pennsylvania shooting. how many people have come out despite the fact of what's happening sunday and i've been talking with them, the line wraps all the way around. talking to folks here telling me they want to hear about what happened sunday but the secret service, how it is going to protect him going forward in the final 50 days.

it is all about the economy. >> we are grateful donald trump is alive and well and safe but we want to hear from the secret service. i'm looking forward to what he has to say about the economy. >> this town hall tonight is hosted by sarah huckabee sanders, manufacturing jobs in this crucial swing state but we could hear donald trump recount the details on sunday. listen to what he said. >> all of a sudden we heard shots being fired in the air. four or five. it sounded like bullets. we were in the group. we got into the carts and moved along pretty good.

>> harris had an edge in the state, to be here this week, trump's running mate is in sparta today, how important it is and you can hear behind me fight fight fight, this is what became the chant after what happened in butler, expected we hear more of that later today, making sure he is okay. neil: aishah hasnie in real michigan, and and business as usual. i think donald trump deserves credit for not giving both of these failed assassins what they wanted by robbing them of the glory they sought and saying on the campaign trail

both of these campaigns despite the threats they received are not retreating from the public. that's a good thing. at the same time we need to be aware of the fact that it is possible political violence could become a mundane thing in this country and that is where the press comes in because we can't turn the page very quickly when one of these events occurs or privilege one form of political violence over another. at the abc news debate the moderators mostly papered over the first assassination attempt but focused quite a bit on january 6th and five days later that was the second assassination attempt to. we need to give these things there do truth and seriously and above all condemned them. neil: is interesting, there's a lot of round-the-clock coverage of these when they occur, but one thing to touch on that is

happening now that does worry me as we are almost getting used to this sort of thing. it is just part of the way we discussed the campaign. two assassination attempts on gerald ford in 1974. the fact is these have been two back to back attempt on a former president with implications that there's a lot more heat and division in this country than there was in gerald ford's time. >> a tricky balance to strike because one thing history shows us going back to the 20th century is anarchists and terrorists survive on the propaganda of the deed even if there attempt is unsuccessful, trying to inspire others to follow their example and in moments like this, you need to tell the public exactly what happened but you want to

describe without prescribing something someone else could copycat later on. what we have seen from some of my colleagues is good reporting on the failures of the secret service, the things they need to do to keep the former president and current vice president safe in this moment but you are right, this cannot just become another thing where we report on poll numbers, campaign stops and bomb threats and failed assassinations. neil: a number of rare events, not the least of which are these two, cutting interest rates close to a general presidential election, who benefits from that cut? >> he would benefit the incumbent campaign, vice president harris is running on the strength of the economy

pointing to her new way forward, the argument has been rescuing the economy despite lingering inflation numbers so if there's a rate cut perhaps that eases mortgage rates and other things, that could benefit harris but one thing biden and harris have done consistently from the beginning is they haven't put any pressure on the fed. something they said is a redline from day one. neil: great seeing you again, my friend. amazon did something very few companies are doing about remote work, telling workers in the new year you've got to be here five fool days a week and what a big company does other companies are sure to follow. what does that mean? after this. ♪

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neil: bosses like that remind you what the real boss is operating on. the latest of the fortune 500 companies say next year we want -- we are hearing more of this, started with the financial arena where they are saying be here all the time. they have bifurcated schedules. i was picking lou basensase's brain. terry successful shot but you do like the flexibility of having this rather than necessarily avoiding that. >> there's benefits to both, certain roles we are talking about like codeing, an individual solo job. i want to do that, what you are

seeing with amazon. i read the letter to employees, what has distinguished us historically is our ability to collaborate and be team oriented. lauren: 20 does everyone need to collaborate? >> he is trying to revive a startup culture in a mega company, hard to do. the -- neil: who was going to change the way we work and for a couple years it did but everything seems to be returning to normal. >> it's called work, not fun. it is at will employment, 49 of the 50 states. we will give you until january 2nd to adjust. if you can't and there is no extenuating circumstance you can move on to better opportunities. neil: more companies are doing this in thinking about this. not as if they are hurting, not as if amazon's business is hurting. a lot of these companies are run by older individuals, they

are not young and the hip like you. you could make the argument that in my day we showed up. >> a lot of intentionals happen when people work together, the younger generation being mentored by people who have been established, much more feasible when you are in close contact, harder to do over zoom and a phone call. neil: you like people, people like you. i find people oftentimes annoying like everyone here. i kid but where do you balance that? >> if you don't like other people you have to learn to do this, have conversations with teenagers you are going to deal with people in life that you can't stand or that you really enjoy and you have to navigate that. family is the only other area. we can't pick our families or coworkers. it's reality. sometimes we go back to the future.

neil: mentioned young people, a work project he can do remotely, he's perfectly fine with that. he was born of the covid era the last year of high school. that generation kind of got used with, adapted to it and liked it. >> i am all for get rid of smart phones in schools, return to actual work, pick up the phone. i had endless arguments with one of my partners because a bunch of millennials would only text or email. you get more information, energy and tone when you talk to someone on the phone. that sounds old-fashioned nowadays. neil: whatever amazon is doing your most balanced your self but this is the way of the world now. >> you will see more of it. have to squeeze out more productivity from the same labor force. this is a trend that is

continuing when dealing with commercial real estate. best way to solve that is put everyone back in. neil: keep it here every week, every month. we want more people. >> it is happening whether we like it or not. neil: thank you. he would be a tough taskmaster. imagine working with charlie gasparino who is coming from us remotely. charlie. charles: i have been working from home a lot lately. neil: these bigwigs breaking news left and what --'s lydia: my contract as donald trump, it's in my contract. that's the way we are.

neil: following post assassination attempt, everyone is closely following that in michigan. also very deeply involved in the crypto community where he wants to take this. what are you hearing? >> it pains me to say this the crypto candidate flopped last night. my producer, the best crypto reporter out there listened to it and spoke with some people, i spoke with a few people. baron trump made his x debut last night. he was part of this, a lot of rumors about crypto, at one point, there was talk about martin shkreli. the crypto thing baron was going to be involved in, it was

a lending platform, in the banking system, donald trump was on the call. interesting he was on the call, people listening to it as soon as he left the call, listenership dropped off. a big fundraiser, full disclosure, a friend of mine but as much as i love steve and appreciate trump is going all things crypto, crypto people, didn't really understand it, there wasn't a lot of details. they are going to say they will do a defined lending platform the democratize is finance it helps people who don't have access to credit to get credit or don't have good credit. you really want to let people

without good credit, giving money to you, never fight or get it again. i give this low market is much as i like the people involved, nice that baron trump is a freshman in college, getting involved in this stuff. we need to know more and if i am going to call it as i see it, like i call a football game, i give this a see. by the way, i say that as someone sitting at home, far away from donald trump's hands around my neck or yours. neil: i had a quick question. you've been doing these remote shows. when you are at home and you

stage the background, do you pick and choose where you go? charles: look at this shot. after you put a bullet through a guy's head. neil: how does that shot look. charles: at fox there are people who work at fox who tell me to move to the left, move to the right. you've got spaghetti sauce on your shirt, wipe it off, how did you shave? by the way i want to let everybody know i always wear clothes. neil: it is a low bar. >> i'm not that certain journalist.

neil: look at the time. charlie gasparino reporter from a secret bunker somewhere. in the meantime, telling you about the federal reserve 25 hours from now, the federal reserve book cut rates. that seems to be beginning but we don't know by how much. if you are interested in refinancing debt, might be a good time to do it, start the process. the guy runs a congressional budget office, now is a good time to think about the debt. that would be a first for many politicians in this country. he is next.

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my favorites. get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month. neil: he has a congressional budget office, and one of the saner figures on capitol hill, not meant to disparage other figures on capitol hill or minimizes importance but he has been warning quite some time about the state of the nation's debt. it's getting bigger, it is exploding in fact and no matter which candidate you prefer for president under each of their economic planted stands to go up trillions of dollars more. cutting interest rates, be time

to refinance the debt. hope springs eternal. good to have you. >> that is one of the saner characters on the whole, and that comes at a time when the debt is exploding and has always been a big deal. nothing has exploded on us and the day might not be far off. >> that the challenge with the fiscal trajectory. we are okay now, and we can look into the future, and $1 trillion deficit. and that fed into interest rates. and was higher rates.

and that was a fiscal situation. >> and the deficit is down, and marked as progress. and that gets is this explosive situation but i was wondering, and finance at lower rates. >> it can be refinanced as you said, the treasury department sells its bonds and interests rates or lower, the supply of treasury security to finance debt. in terms of risk, don't know

what interest rates will look like or what situations will face the country and what these will be. the weather is good, and look at the fiscal roof. neil: politicians will act, and that is all on us. it's not even in the top 10 issues voters are worried about. does that make your job difficult? >> it does. i tell policymakers about problems that are not manifesting today. it is easier to deal with it now than if the labor market has recovered from the pandemic or growing decently, interest rates are low.

it's an easier time to deal with the fiscal situation. it is never easy but it is easier when things are relatively calm. neil: talking about entitlements, donald trump made it clear, don't worry about social security, i will make sure they don't tax your social security benefits anymore or make sure over time workers don't have to pay taxes without any thought to what this will cost and just as bad on the other side. it's not an issue. >> agree with where you started that this is for everyone and doesn't seem to be on the table this year, the kind fiscal adjustment eventually needed. we have to look at some mix of revenue and entitlements,

discretionary spending is too narrow a base for the fiscal adjustment that is needed. neil: some of those fixes, the brace commission under ronald reagan where they extend the life of social security, raise the retirement age, the benefits for those presently getting them, it was a multi-year, multi-decade plan, something like that is akin to throwing granny off a cliff and in that environment you won't get anything. >> it is a generational issue, some generations are not bearing a share of the burden. people with high lifetime incomes, retiring in the future, the longer we wait the longer the group is excused from their share of the burden of the adjustment. neil: how do you see it going?

the debt is exploding, no one is paying attention, interest rates are still very low and we are able to sell bonds and notes. i was that possible? >> that's a reflection of good things happening in the economy. we recover from the pandemic, labor market is not as tight as it was, supply constraints that affected us, the demand surge over the last couple years, those have dissipated and that's why interest rates are lower. neil: we are a long way from mission accomplished on any of the above but thank you for your service to the country. so much to take track of this. the congressional budget office director, grateful for that. a reminder about fed decision day tomorrow. right to 4:00 pm we will be looking at commercial free implications that it could be as much as half a point.

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(girl) wooo! ♪ ♪ neil: with the dow down 8 points, markets have been coming down anticipating what could happen tomorrow. let's go