>> now you tell me. >> are you playing? yes years. ashley: i usually go first. i been usurped but lauren is right. it is columbus. i love state capitals. stuart: i will confirm that it is columbus. the city was founded in 1812 but didn't become ohio's capital until 1816. lauren: i said i would go first. thanks, everybody. thanks for coming a longer. coast-to-coast starts now. neil: what do you do when you run out of states? do you to go to canadian provinces? stuart: we go back to international capitals. neil: that is the sweet spot.

you update a lot of folks, there are reports out of israel that hamas leader yahya sinwar has been killed in an attack in southern gaza. we are awaiting word if that is official but what is intriguing, how the markets are reacting to this. there is no movement up or down from where we were prior to the talk that he is dead. he would be the third key mastermind of the october 7th attacks whose life has ended if that is the case by israeli forces but what's interesting is the markets can see in a variety of ways more trouble to come, cockroach theory there will be others to take his place and inflict harm on israel and keep unrest in the middle east. the other view is this whole war since it began a year ago has not impacted markets, why would the latest development that shows potential targeting of a key terror group and

getting it under control in israel is going to go any differently. it's not playing out in any sharp movement in oil. normally it has come off of its highs a week ago on concerns that there was going to be real tension in the released at a widening more awaiting his relapse response to those attacks. the fact of the matter is 0 response. what's driving the markets? same thing we've been talking about. we will get to all of that. just money, this is life and death stuff in israel. what have we learned? >> reporter: i've been talking with israeli sources trying to nail down reports out of gaza that the leader of hamas, yahya sinwar, was killed by israeli forces, all indications according to multiple sources are that he was indeed killed. we are waiting to confirm on

the air because we have to wait for the dna results to come back. this is a high profile figure, one of the three mastermind behind the october 7th massacre in the only top hamas official left in gaza. the israelis have gone after the leadership of this organization and as we look at what is unfolding we understand israeli officials are being briefed on the latest information out of gaza. the dna tests are underway. at any moment we could get confirmation from our sources that yahya sinwar was killed. giving you some background on who this information was, he was the leader of hamas inside gaza, someone who previously served 22 years in an israeli prison for planning and killing two israeli soldiers. ultimately he was released in 2011 as part of a prisoner swap deal that saw one israeli soldier who had been kidnapped in gaza in 2006 exchanged 4000

palestinian prisoners. at top of the list was yahya sinwar who spoke hebrew and studied israeli intelligence, using israeli tactics against the country and did so on october 7th alongside the other masterminds behind the massacre. if confirmed it would be one of the most significant moments of the war. the latest information, israeli military and intelligence agencies checking to see if the body recovered today following an exchange of fire inside gaza is the hamas leader yahya sinwar. neil: if you think of the hezbollah chieftains taken out, perpetrators of the october 7th attack, always seems in that region that another cockroach emerges and that process doesn't end. can you update us on that?

>> reporter: this is a great point that we've seen from the beginning of the war, when ishmael was killed in a guesthouse attending the inauguration of the new president and once he was killed hamas said the new leader of the organization is yahya sinwar who previously controlled gaza. as has happened in the past, hamas will appoint someone new even if it is official in qatar to lead negotiations for the organization, to lead the military operations that will take place in gaza and places like the west bank and this gets to the core of one key issue, whether or not hamas can be restored. they can dismantle the leadership in gaza, kill off many of the battalion commanders, they can get rid of the weapons and rockets the organization has but what they can't get rid of is an ideology that is not like birthed from

the muslim brotherhood and we can go down that rabbit hole another time but also one that exists in gaza and the west bank where there are thousands of hamas gunmen able to carry out attacks against israelis. the death of yahya sinwar will be significant but does not mean a end to the war or the release of the remaining israeli hostages and does not mean the defeat of hamas as an organization. neil: your knowledge of the region is sweeping, be safe. congressman pat fallon, house oversight committee member, the real deal, congressman, your take on this is interesting and i didn't mean to crassly mention the market in context of this but they are little changed from before we got this news, they are used to the volatility in bad players getting a month off and life

goes on but this would be a significant development, wouldn't it? >> it is juiced into the markets, there's volatility and this certainly didn't defeat hamas but weakened it and it reminded me of the mafia in the 80s when the federal government kept jailing bosses. it didn't immediately get rid of the mafia and there are remnants of the italian mafia. they constantly weaken and yahya sinwar will be replaced but the talent level and diabolical nature of the next person diminishes because those are the most cricket talented people they have and it hurts the morality as well. lauren: 1 are waiting for israel's official response to the iranian missile attack a few weeks ago.

we don't know where or when they will make their move. it will not be on oil facilities or nuclear facilities. what do you make of that? >> if we had read in a fictitious novel a year or more ago the nationstate was capable of planning pagers among their enemies, strewn amongst hundreds of them we would have thought i don't know if i can suspend disbelief that much but the israelis pulled off. the walkie-talkies, they pulled it off and constantly cutting the head of the snake off and it does grow but gets smaller and smaller so israelis are capable, and this is the most lethal and effective intelligence agency in the world quite frankly and so i don't know what to expect. they will hit back hard. neil: the asset-management strategist, good to see you again. i was remarking in one way or

another the markets were focused on other things, what do you make of that? is the middle east just noise to the markets? >> if you take the emotional impact out it is quite emotional on both sides but from a market standpoint it is two regional players involved in a conflict. leaving aside the emotional on each side, lebanon doesn't lose anything. as long as you are not bombing iranian production facilities or export facilities there is no reason for this and you mentioned in the interview with the congressman, the reporting is benjamin netanyahu confirmed those are not targets. . 20 it was a head fake on his part, that would change everything. >> for sure. there's plenty of geo public a premium in the oil market but iran produces 3 million barrels

of oil exporting around 1.5 to 2 million barrels. if you talk in the short term some of those barrels off the market it would certainly lead to a spike in oil prices but also important to remember, opec spares capacity and step up fairly quickly, the saudis to full production. neil: some of them indicated saudi arabia is boosting market share. let me get your take on this bull market going into our third year here, typically these things last 5.5, 6 years, how do you gauge this one? >> it has been broadening out which from an active management standpoint is positive, not just 6 or 7 names anymore but the equal weight of the s&p is up 13%, 14% for the year, mid-cap doing well. quite a few. neil: not just the magnificent

7. >> history is a good guide. you mentioned bull markets usually go this long in duration, they go up by this amount, there's variation around the means so to speak, the average but right now ultimately what matters is the economy and earnings and you mentioned earnings will be good this quarter. nothing in the way of excesses in the economy to lower production or any of the items that cause a recession so the buyer's over a stained period continues to appreciate. neil: what about the election? will that have any impact? >> it will take a couple days to sort this out and if there's any disturbances it could be a problem but we know tax cuts and job act is central both

implications for corporations, individuals, expensing, salt deduction hangs in the balance. neil: seems like donald trump is there a guy. when you think of it personally q may he is going to be doing some very market friendly economic friendly things. if he were to lose, what's the reaction? >> keep in mind the composition of the senate and the house. everyone knows the senate is probably going to flip to the republicans on the idea you sure they are picking up west virginia, montana as well. . 20 the house could flip. ken fisher was telling the billionaire investor that in that environment in a split government environment. >> one party can't dominate. you have to form bipartisan consensus. you know as well as me, consensus in washington taxes

won't go up 400,000 income earning so something has to get agreed-upon. to your point about the election markets are in favor of less regulation, lower taxes, that typically falls on the republican side. . 20 what do you tell investors? what do you tell people? some people say i miss the rally, it's too late. >> the average investor saving for retirement, for college, we are a hedge fund but for the average investor in time frames of 5, 10, 20 years everything is noise. neil: lunch tomorrow. >> running out of steam. neil: great seeing you again. we had a lot of economic numbers but the one that struck me flies in the face of opinion surveys that a bunch of us are depressed about how things are going. retail sales strong in the

latest period and it's a consistent theme we are seeing. what do you believe? people who say things stink or the shopping they are doing that hardly does and what could the implications be for the election after this? ♪

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>> some of us might be saying one thing and doing another. 7 of 10 americans, even though their shopping patterns, packed airplanes and department stores, business on fire across the board so there's a disconnect. they are pounding that notion on the political to radial. >> reporter: retail sales strongly expected, month over month 7%, year over year, this shows economic strength.

and also saying she will turn the page. >> you have been vice president for 3.5 years. what are you turning the page from? >> turning the page from the last decade in which we've been burdened by the kind of rhetoric from donald trump that has been designed to divide our country. >> reporter: she gave no economic plans, believing donald trump would do a better job on the economy by 8 points and taxes by fort points. 70% of registered voters say the economy is poor or fair. donald trump wants to target tax cuts and use tariffs to open markets for us goods. in an interview treasury's current chief economist criticized tariffs.

>> the broad tariffs, only good when this administration puts them on. tariffs are good when targeted and strategic and in line with national security goals and focused on goods and services the united states is producing in line with economic policy. when we take the tool and apply it to our friends and competitors alike we are walling the united states off from the world. >> reporter: donald trump said he was able to use tariffs to get good trade deals and increase economic strength in america. neil: we have steve moore, former economic adviser to donald trump playing an important role in a future trump administration. don peebles, former obama fundraiser, ceo and founder.

the fact the administration is saying they are very leery of the tariff plans of donald trump but they've not gotten rid of the tariffs he passed along to them. mixed messages. what do you think? >> a factoid overlooked by so many economists and voters as well the tariffs have been higher under joe biden than under donald trump. i will say that loud and clear, tariffs have been higher under joe biden than donald trump. if you are worried about tariffs maybe you need to be worried about kamala harris but i'm not a tariff guy. you've known me 30 years and i'm a fr. it is true as a matter of fact that trump is used the threat of tariffs against china, mexico, the europeans to get countries to do things in america's interest and it

worked out. neil: could be a suicide mission. the one criticism of that is countries will respond to those tariffs by lifting tariffs on american goods. you know the fears, the former president says that won't happen here but what do you think? >> we have to be strategic. we should look at tariffs for countries who are not treating american industries fairly and what is in our national security interests. we can't operate from an economic perspective globally to where our industries, companies being penalized by countries and they can walk into our country and after they have our free will to be more competitive than american companies. i agree with steve it's an unknown point, tariffs much higher under this administration than they were under donald trump, donald trump's administration would focus strategically in its last

administration in terms of tariffs. neil: we were highlighting retail sales with edward lawrence, that is volatile i grant you but they don't seem to jive with consumer sentiment that are equally erratic. what do you make of the underpinnings of the economy? if it remain strong, there's expectation of a rate cut on the part of the federal reserve the next day after the election, that won't happen. what do you think of that? >> consumers are saying, you haven't talked to my wife. >> the latest polls on americans how they feel about the direction of the country are very negative, i've seen 2/3 to 3/4, you are right, people are still spending money

is going further into debt. consumers feel they can spend and borrow. it is instinctively, americans understand you cannot continue to borrow and think that story will have a happy ending. neil: we see better-than-expected numbers out of the -- i get that in goldman sachs, morgan stanley but i am wondering telegraphs continued improvement and that isn't being appreciated? >> the economy is struggling every american knows that. the banking industry was prospering before the storm. i don't believe we've seen an

impact of commercial real estate on banks in the us. we've got that head wind and interest rates, less of a demand for products, as loans get repaid and they are sold off, ultimately you will see a decline in revenue for many of the big banks. they rely on consumer activity as well. neil: great seeing you again. we are not missing anything on the political front. chief among them, entertain in the world's richest man, elon musk is there, jeff flock on why. jeff: if you don't think it goes through pennsylvania talk to elon musk. he will be giving talks designed to spur absentee and early voting for donald trump. we will tell you what the mission is when we come back.

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neil: nvidia in and out of an all-time high, tsmc, profit

jumped 54% to telegraph. big banks like ubs put out big recommendations for that in the ai player. and and the multiple of the magnificent, i say that because earnings now, these are still buys. what do you think? >> and i hold many of the other names in the magnificent seven.

stocks running like this is a momentum trade. the true momentum of some of these names, and and the multiples or the p/e ratios, they are growing, they are on their price. >> we talked about it, and 493 stocks in the s&p 500, can anyone go along for the party. >> it depends, they had a heady kind of answer.

what's concerned about s&p growth over the last several years is many of the big global corporations have been creating earnings about cutting costs. that's not good for the economy, and and what analysts expect. and tough interest rate environment is room for continued growth more broadly. >> and if we have a decision right away, don't know the answer the next morning and drags on a while, how would the

markets deal with that. it's an uncertainty factor, wouldn't be totally, and as vitriolic as they may be over time the market has plowed through. the companies and how well they are doing and whether their prices are reasonable. and undecided election dragged on, looking at the bush/gore kerfuffle from 2000, and in the headlines. neil: thank you so much. as we get ready for a election day, elon musk is campaigning

in pennsylvania, ready given a super pac on behalf of the former president, jeff flock kind of money and that's where jeff flock is in pennsylvania. jeff: i'm in the town of fulsome, pennsylvania, no relation to the famous prison. it was named after france's fulsome. the wife of grover cleveland. only president to observe two separate terms. and and and for donald trump, elon musk a big supporter now, the big-money given to the super pac was at the rally with donald trump, returned to

butler, pennsylvania, and in harrisburg and pittsburgh and philadelphia, you have to have already voted and signed a petition supporting the first and second amendments. in order to go you've got to vote so that's the idea. he was slowing embracing early voting. we couldn't bring up elon musk without noting is this happens, filed a lawsuit against the regulator, a number of launches along the coast but because of his outspoken politics, that is not right. neil: i love your knowledge of political trivia. jeff flock -- tell me about it.

access reporter extraordinaire on where the race stands, still a ways out, don't follow this nearly as much going for donald trump but when i look at general polls they look tight. how do you see it? >> right down the middle. to psych ourselves out, the reality is this election is on a razor edge, they swing you away but the focus of musk in the trump campaign in pennsylvania should tell you how important the state is. musk brings something to the table that other surrogates don't reach to younger voters the gop struggled with over the last few years and last few election cycles.

interesting to see musk grow into the role of trump surrogate but also gop superdonor, millions of dollars in the state of texas. in the presidential race. neil: how do the trump folks, on behalf of the former president, how are they going to use that? >> the superpacs are going to be used for independent expenditure, flood the airwaves with positive media, he's a businessman, the republican party he sees as more friendly to his business and outspoken about his views socially and about cancel culture and a lot of his views align with the republican party and former president and the former

president talked about giving him a role, his influence is only growing at this point, we have to see what that relationship looks like after this election. neil: they are looking at the budget, but when i look at these polls. you could make an argument this time donald trump wins the popular vote but might have a devil of a time learning the electoral vote. many others think the opposite, it will be what it was last time. what do you make of that? >> looking at polling as gospel and letting it be an indicator how the election is going to turn out a bunch of especially democrats i talked to acknowledge if there's an error

in the polls, 2016, 2020 error it's going to be a trump win and convincing trump win. if there's a 2022 polling era which skewed more positively for democrats, harris is going to win and we will see how the congressional side plays out. the polling is outcome determine active. that's the problem looking at polling right now. that's right down the middle. neil: the argument is that corrected for understating as was the case in the two prior elections so they are more accurate this go around. do you agree with that? >> the more data every election cycle the better it is for forecasters. they are trying to write that

in but we don't know what outcome would turn out would be. so many say this is going to be a turnout election, the trump team, younger voters having people, turning out the base, trying to energize the base they need to turn out. neil: following all of that, up to date on news out of stellantis. working from home stuff has got to stop, get back to the office. and the banking industry doing this. a popular well-known restaurant owner in the tri-state new york new jersey connecticut area,

very big on catering, he brought food with him to explain. ♪

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it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people.

neil: stellantis is the latest company to say working from home has got to end. a host of others insisting on the same google, toying with us idea. butch llamalee is a successful caterer. he welcomes the new business the comes with more people going to work. >> people going to work is a great thing. it was before the pandemic and comes back. neil: i would have thought from the catering side of your business, that's not a huge chunk that would make up for what you missed of people not coming back to work. >> we cater a lot of big terms and they are not there.

neil: you could have dropped off to my office. the door is locked. where do you see this going. a lot of companies have a black and white attitude to this but they were very productive during the covid thing. >> it is important to get out of the house. home and work. neil: you are a social guy, you like people. >> they don't get dressed. they stay home and i see them. neil: for now you are -- your underlying business is food, cost of food, still very high. what's the most impact. >> can't produce pricing for the future. a simple thing like stake going up $5, $6 a pound.

we won't pay for a year from now. be cautious about pricing and if you understand what they are paying for what they are working into, people are booking lesson advance, a year away, not booking once away and that's much different. neil: do you see that continuing into the new year? >> they are doing okay. that's a good part of it and a different kind of business. a lot of people working from home and continues to do that. neil: you have places everywhere all over the place. butch knows of what he speaks, just doesn't look at. lauren simonetti is following other developments, things are changing, ending something controversial.

lauren: it's like back to normal. we feel we are getting value for what we purchase so pepsi is on shrinking the shrinking. many food giants got around inflation, gave consumers less product for the same price or a higher price. it stopped working and pepsico says tostitos will come with 20% more chips in the bag and multipack's of dario chips throw into her 3 extra packs into that box, good thing for consumers, they are getting something where shareholders are not getting anything today, stock is down a little bit. relatively flat for this year and nestlé, their new ceo saying they priced out consumers who started to trade

down to private label brands. they cut therefore your sales forecast for the second time and offering more promotions to get customers back to their brand products. this includes cheerios but pure arena, petfood business. customers have been giving less to their cats and dogs. disney is moving in a different direction. they think you will spend more. they will sell a $400 per person per day premier pass that will let visitors skip the line, you don't need a reservation, just wake up early at a set time, this $400 pass on top of a regular ticket and then see if you get one, go for any attraction in anaheim or

orlando. i am not sure that is worth it but if it's an experience may be people will spend that. neil: $400 you get in this lightning lane so a lightning lane, for that, you save a lot of time but it is $400 on top of ticket prices that have already gone double digits of this year. we 20 say a family of four, an extra $1600. one day in disney, i spent $1500 in one single day. can you imagine? you've got to buy the kids all the ice cream they want, food, murch, it adds up but they say we get a value for this and the value is we don't have to wait in line at all. that's why there's a limited number, this is a pilot program and we will see how it will

work but if disney has any brand value and apparently it does to many families they might be spending that. neil: i don't know. turkey leg prices are already outrageous. we will have to ask butch about that later on but that is why. thank you very much. we will have an update on whether this is rattling the markets. more after this. ♪ so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari?

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confirming it confirming the arch terrorist responsible for the murders and atrocities committed on october 7th that many acts of terror, by idf forces means the three masterminds of the october 7th attack have been taken out to say nothing of a dozen hezbollah leaders from the top down to some of the henchmen. the cockroach theory continues with many fearing get replacements will come in and the terror threat remains real but israel indicating we know where to find them and we will never give up looking for them. brian brenberg and the big money guys are now. brian: hello, everyone. i am brian brenberg. jackie: i am jackie deangelis. taylor: i' m taylor riggs. brian: kamala harris dumping in the swin