stuart: do we want to know how many calories are in the average trick-or-treat halloween back? you are first. ashley: i'm going to go with the lowest, 5. ashley: will go with the highest, 11,000. stuart: i will go somewhere in the middle, 9000. the answers 11,000 according to children's healthcare testing, the equivalent of 6 pounds of candy. can you believe that? lauren: a lot of parents throw it out. stuart: it's been a great week, next week will be spectacular, the election week, thanks very much, see you next week. it is now yours, neil.

ashley: thank you for that. lauren: 1 dow sprinting ahead 44 points. this is the kickoff of november, all saints today, the major averages, november is the best month for stocks on average. what's more, the november through april period tends to see the s&p rise about 7%. the other period from may to october sees the s&p rising 2%. this is following a historical pattern but still 29 days to go but up to a good start and a lot of it buoyed by weaker than expected employment report that ironically is pushing yields backwards which seemed is an oxymoron. the fact is we get into this and much more detail with edward lawrence, all of 12,000 jobs added to the economy. there were some caveats the markets are digesting but the reality is right now steady as

she goes for an additional quarter point cut in rates and the fed gathers next week, the day after the presidential election. edward lawrence on how they are responding and what is garnering this attention. to you, my friend. >> reporter: the markets may be reacting to the fact that it keeps the rate cut on the table, maybe brings 50 basis point cut into the conversation because it's a week jobs report, no one thought the jobs report would be is this bad, last time, 12,000 jobs were created, fewer than 12,000 in december 2020. in this report, you can run them down, manufacturing lost 46,000 jobs, retail sales down 6400, the holiday shopping season, leisure and hospitality lost 4000 jobs. i pressed the labor secretary about this. listen. >> is this a trend we are seeing where jobs are significantly slowing down? >> this last month was impacted

by a couple of anomalies, one was the back to back hurricanes, really devastating, people lost their homes, businesses closed. people lost their lives. >> reporter: hurricane helenand milton, the boeing strike, bureau of labor statistics tells us 46,000 manufacturing jobs lost last month, the strike accounted for 34,000 of those. a trend in manufacturing over the last three months is clear. >> the trend is losing jobs. >> overall numbers for manufacturing still up in this administration. that is not by accident. the investments we are making into creating things in america, opening up shuttered factors that were closed in 2019, 2018, we are seeing those effects but we won't see them immediately. >> reporter: the bureau of labor statistics says the

economy added back all the jobs that were posited during the pandemic and created 93,000 manufacturing jobs. the ministration started to come back with those different numbers but the last report before the election of a we will see if it is a trend or the outlier. lauren: edward lawrence following that. karl rove, this is the last economic piece of data you get. a lot of anomalies here. hurricanes, the boeing strike but it is the number that it is. what do you think it does. as it helpful to kamala harris? >> marginally hurtful if you are deeply concerned about the economy and think the economy is in bad shape this adds to that and that is where the american people are, 2 thirds of the american people think the country is going in the wrong direction. if you are saying i am

concerned about the future of the economy and this strikes me as bad news, it will hurt on the margin. having said that, it's pretty close to the election, people tend to discount late news. the fact that the other side of this equation is yes, we had the boeing strike, two back to back hurricanes, unemployment rate stayed the same, markets reacted positively saying this is going to lead to our rate cut, takes a little bit of the sting out of it, not the central point of the election as we come to a close, there are bigger questions in the jobs report. stuart: you are very good at looking at the data beneath the data. always trying to to look at a number of people who haven't made up their minds, i find that remarkable but it is what it is as well. in the history of you following this, do you see anything we

are missing, confluence of data that shows swinging to one candidate or the other? when i see these daily tracking surveys particularly in the battleground states they are all tossups, how do you look into this? >> i wrote my column about this in the journal because i am amazed how remarkably stable this race has been. since the september 25th, she has dropped 0.3 of one point in the 538.com average and he has gained 0.9% and you are right, you look at these battleground states, i was looking at them yesterday, they are 20 one dated points, i look at three aggregate services, real clear politics 538 and silver bulletin, seven battleground states, each of those aggregates has a different number so you have 20 one data points, each of those data points represents between 8 and 12 survey so you are talking a

sample of 7, 8, 9,000 of those, four yesterday were two points to two points, 3 of them were one to one. 9 and the rest of them were less than a percentage point showing the difference between a candidate so it's a tossup. what i'm looking at is people who are yet undecided, 5% of them and then a couple of points of people weakly linked to their choice, part of three groups, one are the people who don't care about politics waking up to the fact that there's an election and got to make a decision about voting, ice on interview with a woman who said i will decide while i am driving to the polls, the second group of people who like what donald trump did but have concerns about him for the next four years. the other group of people who don't like donald trump but are concerned that kamala hearst might not be up to the job so how those people are going to vote is going to depend upon them seeing the last couple days of the election and making a decision, taking a deep breath and saying i got to make a decision, here's how i am

going to go and it is a coin toss, it is a coin toss. neil: we discussed the 1980 phenomenon where jimmy carter and ronald reagan were pretty tight until the final week and then everything was blowing ronald reagan's away, the one and only debate they had right before the election, what do you make of that? >> a major event could be an opportunity to decide one way or the other, exactly what happened in 1980, you are absolutely right, there's one debate between carter and reagan, reagan said are you better off today than you were four years ago and kept talking relentlessly about having been the governor of the most populous state in california, better reputation than today and the polls moved to dramatically his way in the next we 10 days before the election as people said he won that argument, i am with him. i'm going to take the chance.

i don't see a major event intruding. all of this is going to be things that might move people here and there. he commented on sunday night at madison square garden about puerto rico, 4% of the voters in pennsylvania are puerto rican. what happens if those people react one way or the other to the madison square garden comment and the difference between the two candidates is less than half a point? that could have an impact. there is no major debate, no 60 minutes interview, no major appearance on fox news with both the candidate, no town hall in which they will be subjected to to questions that might toss the race one way or another. it is how they conduct themselves in these rallies and events and what the message each day is heard by people in 7 battleground states which incidentally is the smallest number of battleground states i can find in the modern era.

the next smallest is 1980 when there were ten battleground states. in 2000, there were 18 battleground states. neil: you really are a walking encyclopedia. thank you. good seeing you again. karl rove on that. some handwringing in this election and which way it might go, all the major averages up and up smartly. i was mentioning earlier, gary, dissecting what is going on, november is generally the best month for stocks, november to april period particularly tends to be a very rewarding period. maybe you know. >> i wish i did know but there's something called seasonality, there are things in the market where end quarter, windowdressing, sell in may and go away and seems to work quite often, not 100% of the time but when we see good track records like that,

something we always follow. today if you had told me that jobs number and the 10 year yield was up markedly i would have thought the dow would be down 400 points. lauren: 1 is going on with that? i was shocked, it tumbled initially when the report came out and then it started evening out and now it is back up. why? >> i am worried, something i've been worried about for three or four years but in the last year picking up, that is the massive and i mean massive amount of debt this country has taken on. they came out with this fiscal response ability act last year. our debt is up $4 trillion so they came out with that gigantic con about how they are going to take care of the checkbook and look what has happened, the worry has always been what day does the bond market wake up and see how much debt, something i'm watching closely. you can have inflation come

down but yields go up because of that so fingers crossed that's not what it is because if it is an we see the 10 year 5%, 6% all bets are off on number one not economy because of mortgages and number to 2 the markets also because of cost of capital. stuart: having said all of that, stocks are not deterred for now. things could change in the next four hours but that itself isn't it? >> a few things, earnings are okay, not fantastic. we had have 1700 point drop in the dow so is bouncing yesterday, the nasdaq got trashed. overall, the businesses of the country are doing quite well. i'm seeing great productivity gains, medical breakthroughs,

technological advancements and that furthers markets and profits. look at amazon today, their guidance was fantastic going forward. that could go well for them. on the other end, microsoft lowered their guidance and the stock dropped $26, the market is paying up for good, paying down for not so good and that's the way it should be. neil: putting a cap on this technology. >> nvidia is going to need to do very well. you look at the number one technology stock in the market to see how it does, it used to be apple. not that apple has gone by the wayside but nvidia has taken over right now but i think this election is haemonchus. i know that has been said before but polar opposites on taxes and regulations going forward and a marked reaction to it.

neil: you are following these developed and the money and political connection. back to politics and where the candidates are going to be spending their time the next couple days ahead of the tuesday vote. wisconsin is front and center today with competing realities in milwaukee separated by seven miles, wisconsin clearly on their minds, more after this. >> the economy is number one, $12,000 more a year for our families who live these days after the last 3.5 years. >> the cost of living is really high and gas prices and food, everything is out of control. i think it could go either way, red or blue. ♪

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election, 64 million people have voted, that's just early voting. if you look at that in context that is more than everyone who voted in 1960. that's just staggering. we've got fox team coverage looking at the race, grady trumbull in michigan, brian yannis in michigan, madison alworth in georgia, we are very lucky to kick things off with grady in michigan and what is going on there. >> reporter: governor tim walz will speak at a united auto workers union hall in the next hour or so. this is one of three stops for him in michigan. the campaign tapping his midwestern roots hoping he can appeal to working-class folks not only here in michigan but those are the rust belt states as well and this evening the uaw's president shawn fain is holding a get out the vote event in downtown detroit at their solidarity house, he will

be joined by progressive members of congress including congresswoman rashida tlaib and alexandria ocasio cortez. shawn fain says a vote for trump as a vote for the billionaire class and that is why he says he and his members should support vice president harris and tim walz but donald trump and senator jd vance also have events in michigan at have been courting united auto workers members, namely those who disagree with the union's endorsement of harris and tim walz. the uaw's members have typically been reliably democratic voters but this time around many of those workers are getting crushed by inflation and in the motor city, some of them have also taken issue with about/harris admin a station at attempt to get more americans into electric vehicles. the trump campaign has been utilizing its midwestern vp candidate to make that argument. >> were kamala harris wants to destroy 117,000 michigan auto

jobs with costly ev mandates, donald trump and i believe you out to be able to drive whatever the hell car you want to because this is the united states of america and we believe in personal freedom. >> reporter: that the key issue in this state's critical senate race. republican mike rogers has been painting his opponent, alyssa slotkin as someone who supports ev mandates and policies he argues have led to higher prices. neil: thank you for that. let's go to pennsylvania where you find brian yannis. >> reporter: voters in the philadelphia suburb have until 5:00 pm today to take part in pennsylvania's version of early voting which is on demand coming in person male in voting. people can apply for a male in

ballot, fill it out and turn it in, all in one visit, the deadline across pennsylvania for that to end was tuesday. it was extended hereafter republicans sued following complaints that voters were being turned away earlier than posted hours. democrat governor josh schapiro downplayed election concerns. >> our system is run by republican and democratic clerks of elections in 67 counties. it is overseen by my secretary of state who is a republican. we will again have a free and fair, safe and secure election. >> reporter: so far, 947,000 registered democrats have turned in their mail ballots, more than 5 at 50,000 registered republicans have as well. in 2,020, democrats had a 3 to one mail ballot participation advantage in pennsylvania. this year it is to to one and

the trump campuses they feel good about those numbers, the trump camp also think they can swing 30 to 40,000 jewish voters their way, and enough to make all the difference in this tossup race and they have recruited new york congresswoman elyse stefanik to door knock in the suburbs targeting jewish voters. >> do you believe the jewish vote could be the differencemaker in pennsylvania? >> it is going to be. not only in pennsylvania but in key congressional districts. we were talking about new york state. if you look, that significant shift among the electorate, they see the lack of support from today's democrat party and kamala harris's failure to stand by israel. >> reporter: you can see the line behind me, people taking part in that in person voting.

former -- president biden campaigning in philadelphia, campaigning by himself, last time he shared a stage with kamala harris was two months ago in pittsburgh. ashley: great job, thank you. now to the peach state where we find madison alworth from georgia. >> reporter: the last day of early voting in georgia and the state is on pace to beat its record for the highest level of early voting in state history. taking a look at the latest numbers, 3.7 million georgians have cast an early ballot for this election, that is over half of the active voters in this state and republicans have been doing a good job of getting their base to vote early, two of the counties with the highest percentage of early voter are raising and towns counties which of seen 64% and 59% of active voters turn in their ballots early. both of those counties voted for trump by 80% in 2,020 but

while some of these typically republican counties have seen early voting success, others are getting bluer by the year. we are in forsyth county which vote consistently republican for president but the margin continues to get smaller. in 2016 mitt romney took home 80% of the vote in the county and in 2020 trump walked away with 65% of love vote. i've been doing exit polling as voters come out this early voting location. the majority told me they voted for trump, some said they would not share who they were voting for and others are making a statement with their vote. >> voted for donald trump because i believe when he gets back into office it is going to be better for the country, better for americans in general. >> i voted for the libertarian because although i am by history a conservative, i do believe that the values that

trump is currently representing are not mine. >> last time i voted was in the clinton era and i think today it's an important time to get your word out and vote. >> the last gentleman you heard from who hasn't voted since clinton cast his vote today for trump. both the candidates are making a push for georgia. we have harris in atlanta saturday and trump will be doing a rally on sunday. ashley: the one guy hadn't voted since 1996. that is a gap. thank you for that. to tina mitchell on this. i'm happy because she's a good read of what is going on in that state, the atlanta journal-constitution. thank you for joining us. we heard boffo early voting numbers, 50% of the turnout already and i'm just wondering where does it go from here,

what does that signal for election day itself, breaking records left and right. >> it signals the georgia voters have got the message, it's a battleground state, their vote is important and voters are responding which we expect early voting has broken records but that means there is still almost half of who haven't cast ballots. they think tuesday will be robust. maybe not as crazy as the lines would have been without early voting but there still will be millions more voters who cast their ballots on election day, georgia voters know every vote will count in the state. neil: let me ask a little bit about that, once likely who study this closely worst try to, extrapolate more than we should from where the votes are coming from, democratic or

republican areas and naturally translate into democratic votes and republican votes in those areas. what are you seeing from the early voting you are getting? >> you are right that we shouldn't read too much into it because just that apples to apples comparison with previous years, early voting is becoming more popular in general. compared to 2020 where early in person voting people were trying to social distance and there was a lot more male in voting and use of drop boxes, male in voting is not as popular this election season for different reasons. it's hard to read too much into the early voting numbers because we don't know how many of that is people who might otherwise have voted on election day. that being said the turnout is something that initially it was looking like some republican leaning counties were doing really well with turnout, some democratic leaning counties were lacking a little bit

behind from previous years but some of those democratic counties have started to catch up. some of those democratic leaning counties historically those voters turn out to early vote towards the end of the early voting period so they might catch up even today so it is hard to read into it. we've got to wait until all is said and done because it might just be that voters are shifting how they vote, not so much that these are new voters coming into the polls. stuart: julie: you know how these early ballots are counted? are they after, the day of voting ballots? is that how it goes? that's how it went mostly across the country four years ago? >> reporter: they go into the machine immediately but early voting totals will not be reported until all polls close in georgia. that is why early voting

results tends to be pretty quick in georgia. day of voting is pretty quick in georgia, day of phone takes longer in georgia because people have to drop those cards off from precincts, got to take them to where those cards go to be calculated, counted, because georgia voting systems are not connected to the internet. it takes a little bit especially in larger counties to get those cards in, upload them but we expect the day of voting totals to come relatively quickly in georgia. what may take some time is the counting of absentee ballots, they can be processed but they start to be counted until after polls close and then provisional ballots also take some time to be processed as well. you can see those provisional ballots should be counted.

neil: you know your stuff. thank you for that. i know you're swamped following every intricacy but we appreciate it. thank you again. we are not forgetting the markets. one phenomenon happening with technology stocks on the same day, the same minute and minutes and hours we've been seeing a big backup interest rates, amazon is up 7%. you heard about the boffo numbers but what amazes me as we look at technology, so sensitive tube rate backups, we got a 10 year approaching for. 35%. i say that because this group more than any other sector in the market is so supersensitive to anything regarding rates and a backup like this you would think would get the attention and make them scared a little bit. that's not happening. i should point out that only six weeks ago the same tenure was stretching around 3. 6%. %. amazing. a little more.

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ding them but can't kill them, technology stocks took them on the chin coming back with a vengeance today, amazon and until leading the parade. maybe we were writing these stocks off prematurely. alyssa cornett, executive editor of multimedia investors, good to have you. what is going on today? yesterday the warning shot and

today people are relieved these stocks are not shot, what's the real story? >> you are right. thursday was a huge shot across the bow for the tech sector and even the broader market. if you look at six weeks ago we had a huge bullish character change on september 11th than a strong and steady uptrend over the last six weeks are yesterday marked a character change in the market and usually when that happens there is some repair work that needs to be done so while it is positive that we are bouncing today, and inside day from yesterday, that doesn't account for the gap down that we had at thursday's open so positive that we are bouncing today and not just immediately continuing this selloff but there's a little bit of jittering us out there in the market particularly with the tech sector ahead of another big week next week that could be full of some explosive headlines. neil: is all about ai and i get that and a lot of people say a lot of the stocks particularly when it comes to nvidia and others that we are hitting

all-time highs almost daily until a couple days ago, it's almost priced too much to perfection. i am sure you heard and covered that story again and again and again but what do you make of that? are ritually re-ward if you pounce on these stocks after they sold off. i don't know how long that can continue. >> there's going to be winners and losers. if you focus on stocks that not only have the strong ai story but the fundamental to back it up and strong technicals in the charts, google looks really damaged. there was a lot of climate and a big pop after earnings that you saw fate and the gap is being filled, that doesn't look good. microsoft is below some major longer-term moving averages. sometimes that can be a place to pick up shares but i want to see a little proof it can back back on its feet but if you start seeing damage, that damage can continue.

i like to buy strength after the weakness. or nvidias and meta and even amazon today, those are the best three looking stocks in terms of the magnificent seven ai theme but you also have these utility plays that are part of the ai theme that are interesting as well as a couple of them have earnings next week. neil: if you want to be so boring as to say the utility stops, the average itself that powers these babies so the way you see it is what? going into the final couple of months of the year, typically a good month for stocks in general, we've been on a tear, you see that continue and will be tested. >> yesterday was a shot across the bow and i love looking at market technicals. i think it is super important because you can tell me all the headlines about ai or the election or what the fed is doing but you have to listen to the market so i am looking

closely at that damage that we had yesterday, that was an opportunity to trim, not get so spooked that everyone goes to cash ahead of the election next week but you have to remain open-minded to how the market is going to react next week. we are in a period of volatility after a strong and steady uptrend over the last couple weeks so i may be ready for anything. if i need to get more defensive next week if markets start breaking down more i have my levels i'm watching for individual leaders and major indexes but if we start rallying i am going to take that as a buying opportunity so we could get back on our feet after this jolt that we had yesterday but i don't want to make too many big bets over the next couple trading days. we need to see the dust settle a bit before we start significantly repositioning in either direction. neil: have a wonderful weekend. all right. in the meantime we are keeping

a close eye on reactions the job report. let me put it in perspective. it was weaker than we thought, putting in more perspective. two hurricanes, helenent milton, 5 to 12,000 workers didn't go to work. that is a big number. the storm fallout after this.

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neil: riddle me this, batman. why, when you get a week, far worse than week report on jobs do you have interest rates backing up? with interest rates backing up, 4.34%, stocks still cruising on this first day of november. on this all saints day we go to our own veteran saint, david asman. thank you for your great work in my absence. i want to pick your brain. what do you make of it? david: your previous guest had it right, the debt, no matter what the federal reserve does, the treasury department has to

finance its insane spending, just to service the debt we are spending $1.1 trillion. we thought about the day six months ago, almost spending as much as defense, $900 billion a year, we are spending $1.1 trillion just to service the debt. investors look at that, the treasury department has to finance this incredible debt and to lure investors in, no matter what the federal reserve does is by raising rates, the only way the treasury can sell its bonds. it is all about the debt, all about crazy spending. neil: this has always been out there. david: that is the rates did go

down, you get a lousy jobs report and everybody says the fed is going to lower rates. all the rates came down. as gary said and i think we begin to ruminate about what to do about this debt, we have both parties talking about spending a lot of money. a lot of that is the blather that you hear during an election campaign. we are in the thick of it as you know and have been reporting on but the point is you cannot ignore the debt and the treasury cannot ignore it and the only way it can afford to pay off that one. one trillion dollars servicing the debt is by lowering investors in and the only way to do that is by raising rates and that's a separate story from what the fed might or might not do at their next meeting. neil: with the next meeting the day after the election the bedding is on 1/4 point cut.

steady as she goes. that is still a quandary when you look at the debt. david: before i was here 27 years ago, if you want to know, the interest rates, if the fed is going to lower rates the market is up. up until the past three or four years, we haven't had this extraordinary debt load and that is changing things because the inability of the fed to move rates as the market itself does, you got to realize there is the fed and the treasury trying to sell its funds. that part of the bond market is not insulated but beginning to separate from the fed. the rates are going up. gary had it right.

as -- neil: love your enthusiasm. david asman so jazzed by this stuff. we have the coleman show host, popular figure, helping more normal people with their lives. is it really that bad, 512,000 workers didn't work because of new mother nature, storms, hurricanes, helenhe and milton but is there something deeper? >> interesting to see how these numbers get adjusted. we see adjustments to the job report but i do think gathering information from multiple outlets the government had a hard time gathering information

because of the hurricane situation but to answer your question, and underlying fact the job economy is cooling back to pre-pandemic levels, it's a healthy job economy, look at 4.1% unemployment, still really really low and we are seeing two things happening the keep the job market kind of steady as she goes, not a lot of movement, employers are in a wait and see situation and they are waiting to see what happens with the economy with interest rates. a lot of hiring numbers drop. people aren't moving, feeling like i want to stay put, this is the reaction to the great resignation. 5% of american workers working two jobs.

that's an interesting, 5%, large number of workers, this is a natural contraction. neil: we will see how the boeing strike turns down, 35% payout the last go around. i am wondering are they pushing it? >> took a call on the ramsey show, should i stay or should i go, my answer was i would not put my financial future in the hands of massive negotiation, you've got skill, at the end of us savings, no end insight.

my advice, the fourth go around, do you want that for our future. if i was in that situation. neil: people like this -- if you are in good hands here, you wonder what is next. >> rolling the dice, not making a pro or antiunion statements but my advice to that collar was i don't know if i would want to whether that again. i would take my skill and experience somewhere else where i wouldn't have to deal with this negotiation all the time. neil: you don't get extreme on either side. good luck seeing you.

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harris: believe for the time being the dow is in the green. looking like it would be an awful week, so much ground to to make up. it is a tough hill to climb for the s&p and the nasdaq. this is looking on the week, the first trading day of the new month of november. november is usually pretty strong month, strongest month of them all, traditionally an enriching time with a presidential election year or not. we see if that pans out but at least the dow turning positive. still a ways to go and doesn't tailor rigs no and her colleagues. taylor: we will try to push these a little higher. happy friday. ll