stuart: who was the seventh president of the united states, you are first. >> number two jackson up into his house in tennessee. i second that, number two andrew jackson. >> i'm going number two and i listed the first six on my page. i'm going with mark vanburen, the answer is andrew jackson. he served from 1829 to 1837 he is a face on the 20-dollar bill, that was a very good question, reminder watch the fox business special election night coverage kicks off tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. eastern the time is up for us, neil it is yours. >> thank you very much, we are paying attention to for states in particular, these represent

about 60 of the 93 electoral votes that you cfo grabs in the so-called seven battleground states milwaukee, wisconsin, doylestown pennsylvania, winston-salem, north carolina traveler city north carolina. they are two thirds of the 93 electoral votes that you need to get to get 270 is a crapshoot deciding whether the edge this far in the polls are very tight but maybe were missing something let's go to north carolina that's where you will find aishah hasnie she's with the trim campaign there. >> good afternoon, you can see behind me the former president is wrapping up his remarks here in north carolina a critical state for him the campaign tells me he is feeling good and is feeling strong headed into election day and he said to a big crowd in north carolina that this is our race to lose.

watch. >> hopefully everything will work out well we are way leading all we have to do is close them out, if we get our bow it's nothing they can do it's one of the deals if we get our vote relating every swing state which is unheard of for the republican party. >> he also had this message for mexico's new president. listen. >> a very nice woman i have not met her and i'm going to inform her on day one or sooner if they don't stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs, and intercountry i'm going to immediately impose a 25% tariff on everything that they send in to the united states of america. >> he is headed to pennsylvania the next two rallies there and

that's where the campaign is tracking low urban and female early vote turnout compared to 2020 and he will close out the 2024 campaign they are pleased with early vote leads in their same for the first time in key states like arizona, nevada and north carolina there expecting a massive wave of traditional voters, they save the traditional gop come out the way that they are expecting then he is bound to win. the message today from the former president is simply get out and vote tomorrow. >> thank you so much, aishah hasnie following team trump, were also following the early voting almost 80,000,080,000,000 americans have gone ahead and voted right now that is a record and a campaign manager for barack obama is worried about the breakdown of that saying the

fact that more republicans appear to have been participating at least in the big battleground states in early voting then democrats could be a worrisome sign. i don't know whether hans nichols agrees i know he's right guy he's so darned smart news with axios. uni as smart as we are we don't know what the polls really tell us where whether they will hold out to be accurate we do know when you're in the margin of error it can go either way but what you hear what do you say. >> no one knows i think that's honest frustrating answer but no one has any sense of which way this is going to go both pulleys in the early vote and some on the republican side see optimism speaker mccarthy excuse me speaker johnson no longer speaker mccarthy might be in that camp because republicans are exceeding where they were in 2022 and 2020 that might end up telling us that republicans have gotten over their aversion to early voting, messina can be

with states potentially like nevada where republicans are clearly outperforming in the early vote when they did before but at the same time if you look at the gender breakdown or more females are doing early voting that can spot trouble for republicans it so hard to tell the race is so tight. >> i am told that pollsters have tried to realign and account for donald trump voters better than they have in the past and both of the past campaigns understated or underestimated that support. has not been adjusted i'm sure we'll find out tomorrow what you hear on that. >> they are outliers every cycle has an outlier pool and that's what republicans are saying about the and seltzer coal that shows here's up there and if that is true there's big demographic concerns for trump in republicans across the board because it shows women overwhelmingly going for democrats and older voters

overwhelming the going for the democrats. here's what all the pollsters and when you get them together the big debate is especially this time of year, what is the electorate going to look like. no one really knows how many non- college-educated whites are going to come out, what percent of african-american population will make up for the total vote total and you fiddle with the dials and you get a dramatically different result, tell me what the electric is going to look like on election day and all told the early voting and absentee as well and this is really easy. before then it is so close that you have one little tweak in the whole thing gets taken out of whack. >> i'm curious what you make of what gets concluded will we have a result. i know it's just a guess tomorrow night or will this drag on another day maybe days or weeks.

>> i say this with only reporting behind it but not a lot of data. make sure my confidence bands are very strong. i suspect it's more likely that all the swing states going one direction versus the other and all the undecided voters are probably going to move in a p pack, so the 6 - 1 outcome is likely that a 14 factory. if that supposition is right then we can know pretty early, you can look at virginia tech and congressional district in the seventh congressional district and kind of start seeing which way this is going to go or we could be in for a long night. with that to side i can't give you more clarity. a lawyer on the one hand. great job as always i always appreciate it. i always appreciate this next gentleman coming up kevin o'leary shark tank investor, so much more, what is your gut tell you how tomorrow goes.

>> binary going to be decided stop by for the morning like everybody else is guessing i'm in the camp lucidly go to one side or the other i don't trust pulling anymore i've even looked at private pulling from the problem i learned as an investor investigated some of the stuff is actual panels that are done either online or by cell phone are very small. if you are pulling a county and only getting 1200 people, your margin for air is only 4% and no candidate is more than 2% ahead. it is useless data. my gut tells me people have decided you have a different way to look at the two candidates in terms of the direction they want to take the country on somebody different issues. i think you will find out tomorrow between one and three in the morning it's all one side or the other and i really

believe that to be the case. pollsters have to find a new career, call me and i give you a job somewhere. >> let me ask you what's happening on the markets the dow is down 360 some odd points there are a lot of factors that play iowa to get into the nitty-gritty but we see interest rates which are backed up pretty prohibitively that's the highest 36% we are under 4.3% on the tenure i don't that's telling you anything but is not telling you anything? >> here's what it's telling us all number one is very rare times when the fed is over showered by another event and that's what's happened here, the election is overshadowing everything and there's a lot of uncertainty and we've been talking about for days markets included the treasury market don't like uncertainty and we've got it so i think things will

settle down the job number that just came out softer than many anticipated including me and a lot of blowing noise in their. as people think about the fed going to do i'm not sure that everybody's in the 50 basis point camp, i think were like 25 maybe or maybe even nothing for now while they try to figure it out. all of this is uncertainty, i brought a jet bomber t-bills and took advantage and said i like t-bills during uncertain times a little cash or reno, 4.62%, i will take it. let me get a quick take on what donald trump had said if he loses that there will be a depression in a market crash, what do you think about. >> donald trump being the donald you got about one way or another based on policy because both sides are being absolutely cr crazy, the thing that i take so listen if trump wins if he

surrounded himself if there is a trump 2.0, better people around him. the transition team headed by cantor fitz-gerald guy i had a chance to speak with him, he is really focusing on aaa players that are policy focused, that is great and if everybody trust him as a bipartisan guy the rhetoric has been insane the nazi hunting in the firing squad you have to let all of that go into side which basket policy do you want he wanted top-down economy where harris is going to say i'm going to tax everybody at 28% in the pick the winners like the chips in science act or all decide who gets the money or do you want a jump ball where the corporate tax rates are lower at every 11 sector, that is a trump camp, less regulation and the rest

everybody to lax, trump is not going to stop talking the way he talks he's been doing it for nine years he's never going to change, get over it. neil: i think when you're referring to howard it was howard luck nick of cantor fitz-gerald. a good guy. this time he is the right guy. everybody likes that guy and everybody he calls is saying i would like to be a policy-based guy he is handpicking these people. it is not the crazy stuff that happened last time. you could get a better team it is going to be a lot more thoughtful. if you go with trump, trump 2.0 will not be as nuts that's what i think. >> kevin, always good to see you, kevin o'leary, another member of the team if it's a beta president donald trump is possibly john paulson the hedge fund gazillion or who could be a treasury secretary, his read on

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it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people.

neil: there are people that guess on polls and momentum and people like john paulson the hedge fund billionaire many times over by the way in the reason why you might want to listen to mr. polson closely, he famously made a bet against all the wacky real estate activity that was going on particularly subprime mortgages back before the housing meltdown that he was siding that morning about that when nobody was, he also famously shorted a lot of the subprime mortgages and made $3 billion in the process, that was one example that's why have great respect for him and his financial mind but he could be a political player and the trump administration may be up treasury secretary. he's kind enough to join us now, very good to have you. >> good afternoon. >> let me ask you i know you're

so closely tied in the campaign and i know you don't like to talk about what role you play in the potential trump administration but you been seeing the tracking polls in the own internal tracking polls in the here's campaign you probably aren't surprised, john says there's looks good you looked at yours and you said yours look good, can you give us an update. >> in addition to the campaign certain private individuals have their own tracking and polling and they've done over the weekend so most recent than the iowa poll that came out and they show trump very favorable either tied or winning in all the swing states so i'm very cautiously optimistic that trump will win this election. >> when you say all the swing states, all seven of the battleground swing states? >> all seven either tied or ahead. >> the reason i asked that,

there is a sense it could go either way and i'm wondering what turns it. out of nowhere came the iowa poll that was a reputable poll that showed the former president trailing in the state that he won easily in the prior two campaigns, what did you think about. >> you're right it's a very close race different polls are giving slightly different results, one thing is for sure it is close but i believe the margin is in trump's favor but we will find out tomorrow. let me ask you how you work with elon musk if you were to become treasury secretary elon musk has been tasked with cutting a lot of spending, he talked about doing to try again dollars worth of that, i don't know how soon or fast or without would go. if you were the treasury secretary he would have to do that in coordination with you, is that doable? >> i think so, there is a lot of

government waste in federal spending and federal spending has been growing out of control levels. this year the numbers just came out with a deficit in the fiscal deficit would be 2 trillion it grew 14% from last year. some easy areas to cut our funding what trump refers to as a green new deal, all the subsidies for electric vehicles wind, solar, that's expected to cost the government over a trillion dollars, plus recent numbers have come out that the government spent about 150 billion on various programs per legal immigrant. those two things alone will reduce spending substantially. neil: i am just wondering a lot of critics of donald trump as there are many of kamala harris saying neither will do much to rein in spending.

i believe with all the tax cuts in the tax and everything else donald trump but 6 trillion i think ma the same thing with kaa harris one and a half to upwards of 1.8 trillion to the debt, neither seems very focused on that, will you be? >> i'm not so sure, trump has been adamant that he wants to reduce the government spending. kamala has not said anything about spending and increase taxes. was to keep it low and reduce wasteful government spending. the other area he wants to tackle is the rising government regulation. estimates have come out under biden about the regulatory cost to the economy has increased during his administration by

1.4 trillion, that exerts a enormous cost on u.s. businesses by slashing regulation that will incur growth and with more growth more tax revenue. neil: we should point out before the big trump tax cut we had the big regulation cut that really got the ball rolling back then. the reason why i go over any of this with you seems a former president has been throwing out a lot of freebies to a lot of people, no tax on tips, no tax on social security earnings, no double taxation for americans working abroad, no taxes for the soldiers or firemen or policemen in that one. she said no federal taxes at all, maybe we pay for all of this with tax. it kind of hit the silly stage, are you worried he's throwing out a lot without thinking of a

way to pay for them? >> not really. i think all of trump's proposed tax cuts, basically benefit hard-working americans, those suffering the most under the biden administration and making ends meet and tax and social security and reducing taxes in those areas will benefit working families. you can contain the cost by putting limits on it, for instance you can raise the threshold on where you start paying taxes and social security from 25000 to 30000 or 35000. that will reduce the cost but still provide tax relief to those that benefit the most. the overtime tax you can limit the tax to the actual overtime not the full wage.

if the full wage is 100 and the overtime is 50, if you don't tax the 50, that is a third of the cost that would cost the treasury. by putting guardrails on the program you can get the program benefit the american that needed the most and at the same time reduce the cost of the treasury. neil: you said kamala harris that we would have a market crash if her tax plans went through, what did you mean by that? >> particularly kamala harris wants to raise taxes on capital gains from 20 - 28% of the corporate tax rate she wants to go from 21% to 28, the marginal income tax rate but the one big one she wants to tax unrealized gains and that means if you want stock. >> she says no longer, she does not agree or people say this you're right to distinguish that that was a biden idea and it was

left on the table and she does not support that were he campaign says that, what you make of them. >> i have not heard her retraction of that but in the early parts of her campaign she was supportive of the tax and unrealized gain. if that was implemented i think it would be devastating for the markets and cause a market crash. >> meanwhile donald trump said you can have a market crash if he is not elected in on that you get a depression. i know we seen interesting developments above late i've been following warren buffett who's been piling up cash like crazy buybacks and that sort of thing dramatically sliced his stake in apple by 30%. my figures could be wrong but something like that. what do you make of what he's doing and what he could be signaling regardless of the election. >> i think that is a smart observation. i think he's the greatest stock investor and hussein stocks are

essentially a reach a peak were very highly priced that he wants to sell equities and move money to cash and i think if kamala harris is elected that would be a very pristine move. generally when you raise taxes across the board that has a negative effect on capital and a negative effect on the stock market. neil: real quickly if i can, a limited amount of time but i want to get your take on real estate right now a bubble that was about to burst. some say were in the same precarious situation today, ford of course and so many others who look at that as a big haven do you worry about a repeat of history? >> i would not be concerned about our residential real estate bubble of bursting. i think home prices are high but not in a bubble territory. if interest rates come down as

we expect them to do under the trump administration that will support overall residential values. neil: if you were to become a treasury secretary you would obviously be actively involved and you would be working right now with a guy i cannot believe there are people but is a little richer than you and a lot of people will say the billionaires are calling the shots, that is not fair that is not right, what do you say. >> i would not look at it whether the billionaires and non- billionaires but look at their knowledge and success in elon musk is one of the most successful american entrepreneurs, he is brilliant. i think it would be a real plus to have them involved in the administration and as to myself i been following economic policy for a long time. you really want people that are experts in the area making decisions. i'm sure whoever the trump

administration chooses for these positions will be experts in the area and that's what we want. >> john paulson, very good catching up with you, i know you been very busy. john polson a key player in the trump camping pulsing company billionaire had fund manager arguably one of the best investors in american history seeing things other people miss. that is some kind of skill set that you want to see in washington because a lot of money goes out, not too much money coming in. a lot more coming up including what is happening with the harris campaign, brian yanez following what she plans to do in pennsylvania. you can hear a lot about pennsylvania after this. ♪ ♪(voya)♪ there are some things that work better together. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings.

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>> in the battle for the seven battleground states, pennsylvania is the biggest, 19 electoral votes at stake and that's where the candidate spent so much time there, brian yanez has more from allentown pennsylvania with the harris campaign expecting a rally there shortly. what do you have? >> good afternoon, vice president kamala harris expended the final hours campaigning entirely in pennsylvania, she left michigan earlier this hour

an hour ago and put a thumbs up in the air when people asked how she was feeling she said good to you today in pennsylvania she is starting in scranton president biden's hometown she is doorknocking and will door knock with volunteers and head over to allentown for a rally really aimed at the latino community. she will have an event in reading pennsylvania with aoc in the governor josh shapiro and then she entered day with two major concerts in pittsburgh and in philadelphia, headlined with celebrities like lady gaga, katie. and oprah. this is what the closing messages from the vice president harris who poignantly did not mention trump's name for the first time at a rally in michigan yesterday. listen. >> we have the momentum because our campaign is tapping into the

ambitions, the aspirations and the dreams of the american people because we are optimistic and excited about what we can do together. [cheering] >> notably harris is spending half of her time today and latino majority cities of allentown and ready part of the pennsylvania 222 latino corridor the new i-4 corridor of florida and this is important when you speak to democrats on the ground and latinos, they are saying that the comment made by a comic at the trump msg rally calling puerto rico an island of garbage is really designating with the 600,000 latino voters here in puerto rico and i talked to the mayor of allentown and he says it he think is going to make a difference. >> it is a big deal particularly to puerto ricans and an apology

would have gone both ways in their mind wonders to what that could be el salvador, venezuela or dominican republic or mexico. and it makes it for something how dare you buy the campaign. >> all of the events are about driving up the voter turnout. when you look at the mail ballots democrats in 2020 had over a million valid advantage to register republicans. now that is looking like a 400,000 advantage in the mail and that means 75% of the vote is expected to happen tomorrow and pick savannah on election day, this race will be decided by which side rings out more of their voters of a race in pennsylvania by up to horrible us over the last presidential

elections. >> incredible, thank you very much, following all of that, a democratic pollster, very good at this stuff. currently, it is easy to overdo in the state but they might or might not be telling us i just spoke to john paulson, their private tracking surveys show all good things for donald trump, i have heard from any of your colleagues on the left that say the same for kamala harris. when you look at the private samplings, i assume that maybe you can tell me. >> looking at all the polling that i'm steeped into now, everything is really, really not connect and you see one poll that harris up by a point in trump up by a point. at this point everything is so within the margin of error i don't think anybody can draw a strong conclusion one way or another. what we are looking at our trends and signs from underneath

beyond the overall toppling numbers. in the last few weeks it seemed like there was momentum for trump in some of the battleground states, states where we had here is leading by a point or two in trump leading by a point or two and at the same time you are also seen harris show large margins with certain groups, women voters in the swing states and across the country really large double-digit margins, suburban voters seen six or seven-point margins, suburban women as well. that is a positive for the harris campaign and people that we know turnout and these are people that we see showing up. on the other hand you have trump and he is targeting and will see how successful he is but he is been really focused on low propensity voters, young men, minority men, people who might sit on the sidelines in the calculation of the trump campaign if they can get enough of these people to show up this

is something that can make a difference. the strategy at this point are completely different, the messaging is completely different and we will know in the coming days which one really worked. neil: one thing i'm curious of your great student of political history and i hear the reports of the big philadelphia event is going to feature lady gaga, oprah, weird he had with katie. maybe she'll be at this what i don't know. i'm thinking of hillary clinton relying on superstars like that eight years ago, it did not do much for her and on that basis alone and i love lady gaga i'm just saying is it worth it? is it really worth it to go the superstar route when you know it did not work in the past for the last female presidential nom nominee. >> i don't think there's any downside to this. if this reaches younger voters who historically break democrat and we need them to turn out if

harris is going to be successful in the election night, these are voters that were not enthusiastic about showing up when joe biden was the nominee and we see the return and enthusiasm with harris as a nominee but we need the support. if he can catch the attention of some people who are still on the fence who are tuning and now, i don't think that these people are what makes a great campaign but it brings the attention and excitement to the harris campaign and at this point it's a matter of turnout so anything that is going to bring momentum and help, they get into everything out at this point. neil: we will watch it closely. someone is going to look very pressing it in the end, that was a good strategy or what donald trump is doing focusing on getting the on his side. that's a good strategy. we will know hopefully tomorrow, days from now.

great to see you again. thank you very much. carly cooperman on all of that. i don't know if our next guest whether celebrities and stars imposters are really excited. he is more excitable and not in a great way when you look at what happened with inflation and how it's impacting his restaurant group, he is a cpa harmonies group president preserve restaurant co-owner, he has his notes and it is not news that is probably a bigger impact on you then any celebrity event with a politician, right? >> what lady gaga does with tonight's event is not really going to impact the restaurant group were frankly most of my clients, i have a unique perspective as a cfo for 200 best restaurants in the country. and i think what they're campaigning about. neil: the things that you care about, food inflation is sticking, it came down from the ties of sticking, you have to deal with it getting reliable

labor and help and that has proven difficult. spell it out, what is your biggest worry if you could talk directly to either the presidential candidate, what would you tell them? >> i think if i could speak to either of them directly, i would say getting inflation under control and controlling the regulatory environment so we have something to count on would be the big game changer for small business owners around the country moving forward and the cpi is supposed to be about 22% but were seen increases in 30 - 50% range when we compare current prices to 2019, they labor the same way. it is a big challenge. >> it is not come down dramatically enough to turn things around. not at all. >> when we look at line cook wages there 39% higher than they were a few years ago and dishwasher at 41% in accountancy my day-to-day job or 50%, wages are going up indirect input is

going up it is a huge problem. neil: hang in there. thank you for taking the time to spell out something that goes beyond stars in music and all of that. in real issues that dominate the selection, not on all of that. in the meantime the fuss right now the nbc is having to take over and kamala harris on s&l "saturday night live" and not donaldjtrump, you have an alternative plan to try to bring donald trump back into the fold. i wonder what joe episcopal thinks of that. he is next. ♪

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[cheering] the garbage truck right. [laughter] >> i don't really laugh like that do i? >> funny stuff for some, a lot of republican voters and the donald trump campaign itself, now we are learning that this lopsided presentation has prompted nbc to get president trump's campaign free commercial time in response to kamala harris s&l including an unusual ad in sunday's nascar coverage and make good on that in the trump campaign says i would go to joe episcopal, he's always my favorite and is very popular right now not only on the speaking front in these hugely popular radio show right now he has people if he wants to come

on always good to have you. 1980 was a carter reagan battle and then you obviously stayed on and i believe another five years so you would've been there for the mondale reagan reelection campaign but to my memory neither candidates in the two campaign appeared on s&l did that have anything to do with you? >> you know what that would've been awesome and i was the guy appointed and anointed to do ronald reagan and at the time i was a diehard democrat it was nicer back then it was kind and gentler but i did ronald reagan and i did the makeup thing in the tv president, order now, but for me.

he never would've showed up in regards we talked about before he invited me down to the white house and i honestly believe that it went from nancy reagan to frank sinatra to me to go down to the white house and i got to meet ronald reagan and that change my whole political outlook back in the day they did not come in i would've love that i would absolutely love that if ronald reagan walked in the studio but that was unheard of on "saturday night live" at the time. >> by the way your reagan was magical and frank sinatra, even david letterman your signature events. i'm wondering we have changed a lot we don't laugh it also easily and there's a lot of anger and i'm wondering by and large it is mostly democratic candidates who have appeared on s&l, hillary clinton, barack obama comes to mind, dana carvey famously george w. bush and that

gautama white house invite and george h. w. bush could take it we don't see that today. >> no and i'm glad you mentioned that when i was back there i could not even think of being a republican, i'm an independent now but i could never think about the republicans that were the bad guys back then i remember that was the mindset and then i remember i did a look on ronald reagan and how i thought he was taken the country in the wrong direction in my executive producer neil cavuto~ because he thought it was too political, how about that. it was not balanced enough, nowadays the democrats go over there and they do it. but i understand my conservative friends get so upset because they say look at what they're doing on s&l, it's always been like that. i was like that and i understand the mindset. i have to tell you and i'm going

to take off a lot of my conservative friends but what maya rudolph did last night with dana carvey and joe biden. neil: that's magical. that was hysterical, joe biden came wondering and where am i going, nailed it. neil: i'm dead serious. >> and then maya rudolph lead, kamala brilliantly, how do i know i was there with the celebrities when they get those those are your jobs as a guest number walk enter. everybody said it was terrible and cringe worthy and i thought they did a great job and i know i'm going to take off everybody but maya rudolph that was brilliant and as good as jimmy fallon doing donald trump to donald trump that was as wonderful. neil: we need to see more of that and give each side a chance to laugh at the other and i wish we had more time you are the

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>> some are going to encounter nasty weather focusing on a lot of the swing states, wisconsin and michigan to see rain and thunderous conditions and this extends in montana where they look at snowstorms and the like that the key battleground for senate seat that could tip republican hard to say but you get your diehards out and if you whether that will be a test for both parties tomorrow the dow down 180 points, brett brumberg in "the big money show". >> thank you very much, hello i am brian brenberg. >> i'm