first lady kept it as a family pet and named it rebecca. there's a movie in their. beforee say goodbye what are you doing for thanksgiving? >> we are hosting a lot of family at our house, 42 people and we are going to watch smu this weekend and college football. ashley: you got it mapped out. lauren: i will not be hosting 42 people which i will going to bury's house, 20. ashley: okay, that's not bad. personally the thing i'm thankful for as i don't have to go anywhere, people are coming to me. a small but very elegant crowd will be joining us tomorrow. thank you, guys. have a great day, both of you. that's it for "varney and company". my good friend edward lawrence will take it for the next hour. edward: maybe i will eat with you. we will see.

appreciate it. coast to coast starts right now. ♪ edward: the b-52s. a record 80 million americans are expected to be on the move over thanksgiving and some may be driving through a storm that. we have you covered from the road to the skies to the kitchen table. let's get to jeff flock who was driving along the pennsylvania turnpike. how are the roads looking? >> reporter: we finally found a road that is moving, the pennsylvania turnpike going toward new jersey. we might hit the river before

we get away. of the 80,000 traveling today we are part of the 70,000 on the road. every year it is a lot more folks driving than flying. you see a picture out the window of our car here. there's traffic out here but this one is moving pretty well. what is the worst time you could possibly travel? we asked aaa about that. reminding you this is officially wednesday afternoon. take a listen. >> wednesday afternoon is one of the worst times to be on the roads. traffic just accumulates during the day. if you are hitting the road wednesday leave as early as possible, thursday is a good time to be on the road. >> reporter: thursday is a good day but we are on the road today.

i think the only good news i can give you is if you are on the road and burning gas it is a little cheaper than it was this time last year, $0.20 cheaper, $3.07 for the average gallon of regular. as promised i think we are now going over the delaware river as we speak, maybe you see out the front of the vehicle the bridge and pretty soon we will be in new jersey and who wouldn't want to be in new jersey for thanksgiving. edward: happy thanksgiving, i've seen you driving a car, suv, truck, i thought you might be flying an airplane today or this live shot. >> reporter: the only other driving i have done is driving ex-wives crazy. edward: hope new jersey looks as good as pennsylvania. let's look at the weather others are facing, powerful winter storm making its way across the us bringing heavy snow and rain.

fox weather is here, what do we expect with this? >> reporter: the worst is in the rockies. we are starting to see a little band of rain spreading toward the ohio valley but places like denver, the rest of the country travel conditions look fantastic right now. look along the east coast you don't see much action at all. it was a different case yesterday where we woke up to some rain the got out of here quickly but as far as air disruptions, delays, cancellations, the worst spot right now denver. we are forecasting an inch of snow in denver, the heaviest snow is west of town in the high terrain, the front range, newark has had some issues over the last couple days, this is not a. 6 related. they've had some staffing issues so be prepared for that. a lot of delays the last couple days. and moving for room.

and and a couple showers through the ohio valley. the storm system we were talking about, and the i-95 corridor, straight up rain, chilly rain. if you plan to go outside, macy's day parade, cool rain pretty much the entire time, breezy too. i don't think it will be windy enough that they have to take down the balloons but it's not going to be nice outside. we will get some snow in land so the interior northeast especially in the high terrain will get some snow and here comes black friday. we cleared things out along the i-95 corridor but guess what, we are going to see some lake effect snow along all of those lakes, the southeast lake shores there is going to get going. it will be an interesting sunday night football game, buffalo bills playing at home so depending on exactly where

the snow band set up it has the potential to be pretty highly impactful. lake effect is the big story after the storm moves through. edward: i like the snow. appreciate it. of the cold weather has you down this thanks giving maybe some declining prices will brighten your day, the cost of thanks giving dinner slightly down from last year but way up from before the pandemic so what is cooking? >> reporter: happy early thanksgiving from new jersey, we have the full spread here. take a look. this year thanksgiving dinner just food for a family of 10 is going to put you back $58, less than last year but over the last five years it is up about $10 so i want to show you the pieces on the table that are adding to the more expensive dinner, you've got to start with your turkey. compared to last year you are doing better, cost has gone down 6% but over the last five years it is up 23%.

you can't avoid this bird for thanksgiving so that is something every family is dealing with. i want to give you something to be thankful for, mashed potatoes, my favorite side are doing quite well. the price is down year-over-year 26%. it is down so much that the price today is actually cheaper than five years ago. mashed potatoes for everyone but you also have to get your greens. it will cost you more. compared to last year we are down. that's good 8%. %. compared to 5 years ago we are up 20 one% and the biggest inflationary item on your thanksgiving table this year is going to be stuffing. year over you are looking at up 8%, over the last 5 years up 52% so maybe go light on the stuff ing but regardless, the table is cheaper than last year and i hope you and whoever is watching at home wherever you are selling your thanksgiving you have a wonderful spread like this and spend it with

those you love. edward: jeff flock went to new jersey. look like a huge spread so might want to set an extra seat at the table for him. might be on the way next. >> reporter: he's welcome anytime. edward: how do these line up with the inflation gauge? let's get the read from strategic wealth partners, investment strategist luca lloyd and chief market strategist lou basensase. overall inflation moving up slightly year-over-year, 2. 3% but core inflation, sticky inflation is moving sideways and ticked up slightly, 2.8%. should we be worried about this trend? >> i want to say i don't know how you can feed a family of 10 for $60. we do need to be concerned. i been on the record for of

couple months saying the fed needs to pause, never should have lowered rates in november or december because of the stubbornly high and sticky inflation which we are seeing this come through. i think jerome powell needs to keep a rate cut bullet in the chamber for 2,025 especially with donald trump talking about tariffs, the market is going to be uneasy about reigniting inflation, he should wait to see and get more data that proves we are on a path down the tubes a, not there yet. edward: donald trump is talking 25% tariffs, mexico and canada and 10% additional tariffs on chinese goods on day one. if this goes into place could it push up prices and why aren't markets more worried about this? >> the answer may surprise people, i don't think it will push up prices. right now between all these people coming into the administration, we have the a

team, the tariff teams that know what they are doing to make sure we do it the right way. tariffs, i'm not an expert on ressler but the leverage is important. what we are doing is we have leverage, we are gaining leverage over these countries the reason i don't think it will be inflationary is people aren't considering the fact that we have a doge department, the efficiency department, we are taking away the government spending that will offset the inflationary pressure that may exist from the tariff. everything will offset each other and the trump administration will be more deflationary than inflationary if they do what they say they're going to do which is take away government spending, the sugar we've been addicted to for a long time. edward: we will see how long the american public gives them in a grace period. what do you see as the biggest head wind for the rest of this year in 2025.

>> reporter: are analysts right, the market has smooth sailing. earnings projections come down, if the actual result start to contract than the market gets concerned the, the stock price is ultimately follow earnings higher or lower. and arm wrestling match, i agree with the monetary front, 100%, put some data behind it. of the 2016 tariffs were removed they would increase gdp by 0.2% to 0.3%. we are talking maybe a drag of 0. 8%. i have all the faith in the world that elon musk and vivek ramaswamy will get results to create more of a tailwind for the economy than if we have a few extra tariffs. >> i've seen both of you and don't want any part of arm wrestling either of you.

we have seen this rally, the trump rally colliding with a santa claus rally. are there specific areas you are watching, for when this rally could end? >> unemployment. because of the doge efficiency department, a lot of jobs are government jobs, 2 million direct federal employees, when no jobs go away that could hit government spending or consumer spending. last year from the holiday online sales, 1/3 of americans didn't pay off their credit card debt last year. i expect the same thing this year so the debt cycle is going to continue to get bigger and bigger and when it comes to holiday shopping season, one long-term trend to pay attention to from the retailer side of things, many retailers make 1/3 of their revenue just from holiday sales. a lot of young people aren't having kids and what makes holidays fun? kids. if kids are not getting married, younger generation, we have to pay attention to that

for the long-term trend for america, these retailers. i would pay attention to that for the long-term. edward: a president-elect has an economic brain trust, he relied heavily on us trade representative, director of the white house council of economic advisers and treasury secretary for the economic policy, what do you think of this brain trust of kevin hassett and scott bessent? >> it is a powerful triumvirate of proven leaders here. present - he has wall street dna, he can appease investors. kevin hassett, you couldn't find a stronger conservative pedigree, worked on every administration, the only blemish is ranch awaiting, i can't give him a hard time, that is where i spent two years. greer, we have a tariff laffer curve and affect. greer will find the perfect

balance, on the tech side with hassett. results matter. there's an opportunity to deliver and this team can do it. edward: i want to get some breaking news, the trump transition team says trump cabinet nominees were targets in violent threats. let's go to peter doocy at the white house. >> a potentially huge national security issues so i reached out to the biden white house, still waiting to hear from them about, and apparent swatting attempts, they are not willing to go beyond a statement. a lot of important information, last night and this morning several donald trump's nominee's and administration appointees were targeted in violent un-american threats to their lives and those who live with them.

these attacks range from bomb threats to swating. in response, law enforcement and other authorities acted quickly to ensure the safety of those who were targeted. donald trump and the entire transition team are grateful for their swift action. we are learning the names of those who were targeted, elyse stefanik was targeted and found out a bomb threat to her home in new york while she was driving with her 3-year-old son. pete hegseth was targeted. we don't know where he was. john ratcliffe also targeted. it is important to keep in mind, the danger as we learn the bare minimum about these incidents, the danger of swating, there are some of these nominees like doug bergram, he has police protection all the time, it's not going to be a problem if there is an erroneous police report and with guns drawn, they were fed bad info about something happening inside.

most of the rest of these nominees are private citizens without protection. that doesn't come until after senate confirmation, after they take control of these agencies, it's a dangerous thing. people go to jail for. this is something you can take to the bank that the fbi and other agencies are figuring out who is responsible to make this stop. edward: looking to mystically and internationally, appreciate it. israel approaching a cease-fire agreement with lebanon hezbollah militants that would end 14 months of fighting. alive report from tel aviv in a moment.

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part of country, those border towns and villages just yet because israeli forces will remain there and there will be a phased rollout of the withdrawal of israeli troops over the next 60 days but that is not scenes like this from playing out, this is earlier in lebanon where you can see car after car of people returning home with their belongings strapped to the top of the vehicle. it has been 14 months of war, finalizing with the cease-fire that came yesterday in the early hours of this morning coming into place. some people had been displaced for nearly a year. >> translator: thank god. it feels great. thank god for everyone's safety. i hope lebanon stays safe. >> reporter: the lebanese army on the move today, lebanese forces will create a buffer along the border where hezbollah must retreat, the white house says it took months of diplomatic efforts to broker this piece plan.

the us allies like france will not have boots on the ground but will provide assistance. as far as why this came together now is really prime minister benjamin netanyahu cited three reasons, the iranian threat, the need to replenish troops, and weaponry, and the need to isolate hamas. that is really a pivotal part of why this came together. hezbollah for the last year has been citing retaliation against what is going on in gaza as the reason for attacking israel. with this piece plan taking place in the north, israel will be able to reshift its attention on gaza. edward: a cease-fire between israel and hezbollah in the north but no such agreement in the south where the conflict in gaza continues to rage. joining is fox news contributor dan hoffman. good to see you again but let's talk about that cease-fire that is in place. this is a win for israel because they were fighting on three front, north, south and east and this allows them to

move resources, right? >> it's a good tactical success for israel. hezbollah began launching missile attacks against israel october 8th of last year and has been doing so for the duration of the war in gaza. israel was effectively taking the fight to the enemy with bold sabotage operations against hezbollah. remember the pager operation decapitating hezbollah leadership, that brought hezbollah to the peace table and this tactical pause, cease-fire for as long as it lasts allows israel to do a few things, focus on iran and iran's terrorist proxies, not just hamas but also the houthis who have launched attacks against israel. it allows israel to move their citizens back to the north and regenerate the economy which is so vital for israel's well-being.

edward: how important would it be that no more fighting happens in that 60 days? should that entire 60 days pass? >> that is important for israel to be able to hold the northern front and focus their resources on other fronts especially gaza. israel doesn't have unlimited resources. they have struck hezbollah and this piece deal gives a tactical success that israel created through their military and intelligence operations. edward: the russians are turning to the north koreans her arms and troops. do you see an offramp for this invasion that will give russia to back off? >> there is no indication vladimir putin is looking for an off ramp. he may talk about that

sometimes but that's our view station. the use of north korean troops and yemeni troops as cannon fodder is meant to demonstrate to the west, to nato the united states that russia has powerful allies, north korean hermit can get them who are our adversaries and can do us harm and flannery putin wants to bring that as leverage to the fight and there are discussions about a piece deal vladimir putin is going to do everything he can to ensure russia at a time and place of its choosing can achieve its objective which is to topple the government of kyiv and create a regime loyal to the kremlin. edward: we are going into winter over there. the biden administration has been slow walking arms for two years has not taken constraints off. it's too late for ukrainians? >> too late. the biden administration failed to get this right. i don't think history will judge them kindly, never gave

ukraine what they needed when they needed it. ukraine should have had these years ago and they should have had the authorization to use them, the range is 190 miles, the deceased leader of the wagoner group got farther than that and presented a far more serious threat to vladimir putin's regime security. this is not a success for the biden administration. it will be a difficult negotiation for the incoming trump administration. edward: the abraham accord, appreciate it. how travelers are hitting the road this holiday season. what about those flying? kelly, what is coming up? >> it is here really carmen

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edward: mortgage rates coming

in at 6.81% for fixed 30 year rates, slightly down for the wii, rate of mostly gone up since the fed cut interest rates and that seems upside down. let's bring in catherine, why are mortgage rates moving up in general when interest rates are moving down? >> the fed said interest rates, the lenders set mortgage rates, the two are connected but not the same. lenders take into account other factors such as the bond market and the bond market is left to inflation. we are not sure where we will land on inflation. we are in a confusing time, there are administrator shifts. depending on policies created around that, that will correlate how these align. edward: where do mortgage rates settle in 2025? >> the national rate is 7%, new york is 6.5 as a competition.

mortgage bankers association says they will likely be between 2025, 6.4, 6.6 and i agree. i think we were propped up in 2020 one by artificial 2% to 3% but we are landing probably where we will end up in the mid-6es. edward: the 3%, 4% mortgages will be negative those in our lifetime. >> i don't think we will. edward: unfortunately. >> might have missed it. edward: the supply of homes is not there. 35% of mortgages, 22% of mortgages below 3%. people like myself are not moving. that means higher prices because pending home sales at a 7 month high, 2% for october. the consumer confidence, are

they confident in making that investment even though supply isn't quite there? >> there is stock in place, people that have 2% to 3% don't move. that said, year over year we are up 25%. the last 11 to 12 weeks we had double-digit contracts signed so consumer confidence was high post election especially the last two weeks in new york where we've seen contracts at all time highs so the supply is down because people have not been selling but i think what will happen is people will get used to this new norm. buyers will come out because confidence is high and we will transact. edward: people are making choices, buying the storebrand over the name brand, shopping at walmart over higher priced stores. >> i would say homebuyers are

more savvy than ever with monthly costs. also people are going towards new developments so they can get concessions. people outside the comfort zone, you see those trends online. edward: thank you for this insight and hopefully we can live where we want to live. thank you. over 18 million americans are expected to be flying for this holiday weekend and the tsa is expecting to screen 3 million people sunday alone. kelly. >> reporter: as i mentioned when i tossed to break it is here really calm. the line is growing, 11:35 central time, but the wait time has increased to 20 minutes.

i don't know, i have paris check but something to know is 3 million more people are enrolled in the program. the wait times are fluctuating. at one point paris check and regular access where the same wait time so keep that in mind as you head to the airport. tsa plans to screen 18 million people throughout the country overwrote seven day period, 6% more than the same stretch last year. including what was a strike at charlotte airport and an ongoing shortage of air traffic controllers. united airlines saying the single most consequential thing anyone can do to improve the flying experience is to fully staff the faa. look at the numbers of delays and cancellations, a little

over 1500 delays, atlanta ranks followed by dallas, denver, los angeles, chicago o'hare round out the top five. we got here a little extra early. >> getting through tsa can be a struggle. they usually test any liquids that we bring so it takes extra time. we heard social media a lot of people are traveling. we wanted to be safe. >> reporter: i did say it was calm around the airport, a lot of employees, not as many travelers as usual. i'm in a stress zone where people open their bags and readjust. someone took out a beer can and not sure the story behind the beer can but they had to part ways with it. remember when heading to the airport you can't to bring that

with you. edward: someone was happy about being in line which hope the smile continues as they wait 20 minutes in the security line. you have to take your time. thanks. ahead on coast-to-coast consumers expect to spend at record levels for the holiday weekend that the mall and at the box office, we will dig into it all after this. ♪ advil liqui-gels are faster and stronger than tylenol rapid release gels. ♪ also from advil, advil targeted relief, the only topical

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turning against the woke culture from a few years ago. how badly does disney need more honor 2 to be a hit? >> in august of 2023 i called disney a dumpster fire for capital and i wasn't wrong. it was when bob iger came about after suffering $11 billion of losses they are starting to make profits and strong growth, they have big hits. milana 2 could add to their profitability. they need the momentum to continue. the thing that kept me away from disney is it is so consumer driven and now when the consumer is strapped, that being said the stock has bottomed out. i give credit to my friends and wall street colleague tom hayes who picked this bottom early and been a right, there's more room disney can go under bob iger and there is a window. he's going to step down in 2026.

>> disney was touching $200 a share, today it's 117 a share. it was $90 in september. is this a by right now? >> it doesn't fit my criteria but if i look at it from a fundamental basis you have double-digit earnings growth in the streaming business. they turned around multiple hits in the box office, looks like moana 2, i asked my 7-year-old, she is excited to see it so i may be contributing indirectly. you can make the argument if this is a genuine turnaround it can go higher, $200 a share. august 2023, when peltz got an activist campaign that ran to 120 and fell back to $80 it could be a volatile stock. edward: i will be giving some of that back to disney at disney world.

is this the poster child of go welcome go broke, $200 stock in the company, openly started talking about when they were open, in those woke positions, stock started to tank and positions being reversed and seeing stock on the rise again. >> when we are going through that with bud light and walt disney picking a fight with desantis in florida, people don't want their investments in intense shame and intertwined with politics. it is not a coincidence, there's causation and correlation between disney backing away from woke stance and people contribute more to the business. i think that is a trajectory they should continue. it's not an accidental one under bob iger. it is intentional and we will see those results payoff hopefully quarters to continue. edward: we will cut you loose from the this. you start to slow roast the turkey, and record spending on

black friday and cyber monday, luke lloyd is back, they are spending more on fewer items because of inflation. >> you just hit the nail on the head. the projections are 2.5%, 3% spend over last year. inflation at 3% is offsetting inflation, there is a mentality of less is more. growing up for me i was looking forward to 30%, under the christmas tree when i was circling the catalogs, they want one laptop, 5 or 6 christmas presents, $2,000 because they are so expensive, the mentalities of these kids are changing as well. they are just buying one gifted.

these tech firms are factors, retailers in toy companies. motel, has broken earnings projections are 12%. edward: i hit the dartboard. consumers will buy all the gifts now. we see stronger black friday to cybermonday going into christmas. >> they want to partake, and cybermonday, these retailers, the calls of the world or other retailers people think of, you have amazon out there that has 43% of market share, when you have amazon getting bigger they will continue to eat more market share. .

record card debt, and the the debt increasing, delicacy rates, how much pressure is the consumer under. >> we been under pressure for a long time. there is no debate whether the consumer is under pressure. that question will be entered the right way and the way to answer that question, as long as people have jobs they need to borrow more money off of their income. if they have credit card debt, refinance a credit card debt, why not take out $25,000 as cushion on the side. the consumer is smart enough to engineer their situation and that is possible if you have a job. i referenced how last year 1/3 of people that took credit card

debt to purchase holiday gifts 33% of people didn't pay that off yet so it will continue. it will get bigger and bigger and the rich get bigger. edward: you are watching the unemployment rate. appreciate it. back to the breaking news, threats against the trump transition team, the fbi's responding it is aware of numerous bomb threats and swatting incidents targeting incoming administration nominees and appointees that include john radcliffe, pete hegseth, the border czar, tom homan, he says he was also threatened. right back after this. at harbor freight, we do business differently from the other guys. we design and test our own tools... and sell them directly to you. no middleman.

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edward: justin trudeau claiming he had a good call with donald trump after he announced tariffs to stop fentanyl and illegal border crossings, the canadians warned the oil through pipelines come through canada into the us which could be subject to any tariff imposed. let's bring in the power of the future founder and ceo daniel turner. if this tariff is imposed and hits oil that is an increase in gas prices. >> it is but i think he will use tariffs as a negotiating chip but there's a lot of factors that will come into play with the future of oil markets. we are around $68 a barrel, lower than it has been. the by demonstration historically had $85 a barrel, great really for the american people but other things to be concerned about, opec threatened to cut production or hold off production increases. a lot of factors at play. the american people want relief on oil prices.

edward: customs and border protection said the encounters coming from the northern border was more in one year, the last year than 17 years combined. may be the president elect has a point. is this the way to do it talking about tariffs that could impact oil? >> i think donald trump will use every solution possible to patrol the border weather is the northern border or southern border, he put manufacturing on the table, fossil fuels on bar table, protecting the american people this is top priority. edward: they are discussing whether they should pause not a rate, output increase. do you think opec plus is looking at donald trump and saying might not be able to set the global price? q >> they want to see prices go up. i would anticipate they will cut production because they

want to see oil back to $95 a barrel and donald trump will start increasing permitting which means more access to land, more drilling in the future. we will see a war with opec. edward: will prices come down quickly once he takes office? >> gradually. may be a little market hit right away. this is a slow time for oil prices in the winter oil prices drop regardless who is president but over time we could get back to $50 a barrel which is historically where they have been and where they should be. edward: opec plus have got to be looking at this going they are trying to counter the moves we are doing ahead of time. >> part of it is russia for example, russia selling all their oil and gas even though we have embargoes, they are using intermediaries because a lot are not embargoing are european countries purchase them from them so russia is

making a fortune off of oil and gas, they don't want to see their profit margins drop so they will try to find work arounds. edward: it could impact national security going forward. appreciate it, thanks for coming in. i want to take you live to new york city where they are preparing for tomorrow's thanksgiving day parade, the parade will feature 34 of these floats from tom turkey to sesame street to the famous santa's sway to wound up the parade, 22 massive balloons, 11 marching bands, 28 performers for the two mile parade. you see them getting ready for that. we are hearing the wind won't be as bad. it should be a good day. that doesn't for us. we have "the big money show". taylor: when you were showing up those photos, thanks so much