ashley: it is a privilege and knowing our sneaky producers it is either the lowest number or the highest number, go big or go home, number 4, one hundred 18. stuart: mike murphy always claims to get the trivia question right. what your answer? >> i will go with number one. 88. stuart: i will go with number 2, ninety six. i don't know why. the answer is one hundred 89 first settled by natives in 200 bc, later colonized by the french in 1880, all those islands in french polynesia. you've got it right. kudos to you. ashley: it is embarrassing. stuart: thanks for being with us. see you again tomorrow. my time is up. three seconds, neil cavuto. neil: i never would have

forgotten that right. we are focusing not so much on the dow but technology stocks, most magnificent seven stocks, a reminder of what doesn't necessarily burn, the magnificent seven would spiral by the end of the year, that's not materializing. going in today the magnificent seven, we see the names, run up 60%, not as good as last year when it was north of 110%. technology in general, that was a down year. magnificent seven no matter what happens, another stellar year. technology backdrop remains in a separate report that has one analyst talking about nvidia saying doesn't mean the guy is right but he's been right tracking just that.

stock is on track to becoming twice the size of apple. is that too frothy for your taste or getting ahead of buying skis? there's go to the cofounder of path trading partners. it get through my thick skull. what do you make of that? going to the final month of the year, stellar year, the magnificent stocks are more magnificent than they were this time last year so how do you see things going? >> not trying to pat myself on the back, round hill's magnificent seven etf but you don't have to worry about individual stories and

different mag sevens, 54 trading at $52.76. i believe mag 7 will continue. there is nothing in the data that is telling me there will be any disappointment in terms of the santa claus rally. we continue all time highs, the nasdaq continues to outperform and hasn't quite started to be outperformed by the russell in the way you would like to see if you think the technology story is getting long in the tooth for lack of a better phrase. ashley: we have had back-to-back years of the s&p moving 20% through the upside. normally 1/3 year is tough. it is not unprecedented but it is tough.

how do you see next year? >> i worry the second half of next year, difficult to find any bear in the street and i wouldn't call myself a that but there will be a significant correction if not a move into bear market territory, second-quarter beginning of third quarter next year and a lot of it has to do with the new administration. looking at scott bessent's 333 plan. if you cut government spending as a portion of gdp from where it is projected now which is in the range of 5% to 6% deficit spending to 3% and dogthe on the path by july of 2,026, looking at profitable spending or not, a big drop in government spending and that will, in part, a fiscal drag into the economy. before we touch on that, it

will be a decade, you need to purchase at that dip. if we can get those things achieved the, the stock market for 10 to 15 years but i expect it to be a short-term drag. ashley: interesting we might be benefiting because other countries stink by comparison not to disparage the french or what is going on right now but a number of countries, china, the friction where you had martial law declared two hours apart, the south korean market tumbling, french stocks under enormous pressure because they might shutdown the government or force new elections immediately. having said that i wonder how much that helps us, we have great underpinnings but it helps when you look around the world and see the others that aren't even close.

>> equity markets like lower rates. when i did my adjustment of the treasury curve that i have been doing every morning for two decades yields were higher and we got that announcement of martial law in south korea yields went negative so as we know, equities like lower yields. if you have that kind of uncertainty, the global economic landscape it will help the us. we are looking good for record number in the us because of the deregulation, corporate tax cuts with the new regime, those kinds of things push money towards the us and the money tends to be sticky. neil: don't go anywhere. i want to pick that fine brain of yours and isolate these, tesla with some big news that it could help the company, even

if today it is not helping the stock. more body on that. to hillary vaughan, in france, there could be a no-confidence vote in the government but this is not disrupting donald trump's plans to go to france to see the reconstructed and renovated notre dame cathedral. hillary has more at the white house. >> reporter: it doesn't seem like prime minister justin trudeau is willing to take donald trump's offer to make canada the 51st state and doesn't seem inclined to trade in his title as prime minister for governor if that were to happen. trump making that offer in just as a way to save you don't want to level the playing field and reduce the massive trade deficit between the us and canada then why don't you become part of the united states? justin trudeau will have to grapple with a tariff on

canadian goods if he doesn't fix the trade deficit with the us or tighten up the border by day one of trump's presidency. >> you might not like the truth all the time but he tells it and when he says he's going to do something he delivers on that promise. we are seeing it and he's not even inaugurated yet, the trump effect is real, world leaders coming to the table, our border will be secure. >> reporter: canada exports 70% of goods to the us to the tune of $440 billion. 25% tariff could cost them one hundred billion dollars, same goes for mexico. they export 79% of goods to the us, $472 billion with, 25% tariff would cost them one hundred billion dollars as well but while countries grapple with higher taxes on their exports to the us us companies are warning customers should be bracing for higher prices.

>> we are used to dealing with significant tariffs. they have not driven production into the us even though the tariffs are as high as 40% so we don't think there's going to be movement to build product to that we sell in the us that are higher prices for consumers. >> reporter: trump is laying out plans to block the sale of us steel to a japanese comedy posting last night, quote, i am against the once great and powerful us steel being bought by a foreign company, through a series of tax incentives and tariffs, it will happen fast. as president i will block this deal from happening, buyer beware, trump going to bat for us steel is something steel manufacturers association is cheering on. they want him to use tariffs to level the playing field to prevent cheap steel from being dumped in the us to give their industry, us steel, a fighting

chance. neil: some were saying go bigger than the plans you have. we will see what happens. donald trump making a number of threats, pulling a ronald reagan in warning hezbollah there will be hell to pay if it does not release the remaining hostages before he is inaugurated. ronald reagan didn't say much but he was warning iran at the time, holding those american hostages going into his inauguration in 1981 that there would be a new sheriff in town and things would change and sure enough on inauguration day they were, are we looking at that all over again? jeff mason on history replaying itself. what do you think? >> it is donald trump using the bully pulpit he has as president-elect to exert

influence on hamas and hezbollah that he was referring to in terms of holding the hostages in gaza and trying to get a resolution the would be in the interest of the united states and his interests. this is something president biden and his administration are working hard on as well and have been ever since october 7th but it is a sign that trump is getting engaged and laying down his own red lines as it were, the implication for how he will handle foreign policy once he is in office. neil: exactly right and i want to step back and wonder when we have a president-elect, we have a sitting us president, hard to tell the difference. this isn't the first time we have gotten this which i remember gerald ford in the waning days of his presidency before jimmy carter would take

over, maybe puerto rico to become a state. little is made of those initiatives when it's the outgoing president. a lot is made when it is the incoming president so what do you think of this strategy? >> there is one president at a time, that's an important principle of the democratic tradition of the united states for more than 200 years but you are right. the incoming president, and donald trump, a way of engaging the conversation on foreign or domestic politics going into january 20th when he will be inaugurated. it would be different if he were trying to negotiate with hamas. i don't believe that's what he's doing but he's giving them a warning signal and in some

ways hard to say if that will help. it could potentially help because it shows there certainly wanting the same outcome but it is still this white house and the biden white house driving the train on these negotiations. neil: how do you expect the second white house run is going to go? you covered him and have respect for you, fair and balanced report, allegiance to know side. having said that, you have had your arguments at press conferences. as for this go around how do you think it will go? the way the president-elect handles the media at a second shot? >> good question and a lot of people asking it. i don't know the answer.

having covered him, donald trump likes to engage with reporters. i suspect we will have better access in a trump white house than during the biden years. which is no big surprise, president biden didn't do a lot of press conferences. he took questions from reporters but wasn't a regular presence in the briefing room. donald trump didn't discover the white house briefing room until he was in office but once he did during the covid pandemic, i suspect we will have questions, that is something the media welcomes and donald trump uses harsh rhetoric against the press so we are prepared for that as well. julie: have nerves of steel. can catching up with you on all of that. i should give you a peek, you

might have noticed if you follow fed funds futures of there seems less likelihood the federal reserve will overwhelmingly agree to a third rate cut at its meeting in a couple weeks. i say that because the jobs report showed a lot of job openings that could be a harbinger, not so good, the prospect of interest rates coming down after this. ♪

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sit down with mary daily on all these cross currents, not a sure thing anymore. >> i'm live with san francisco federal reserve president mary daily. tell me about the shape of the economy. >> the economy is in a good place, solid labor market, good growth and inflation. >> if it is in a good place. the rate cut is off the table. >> in order to keep the economy in a good place, it would be in december or sometime later, to debate and discuss in the next meeting but the point is we have to keep policy moving down to accommodate the economy because we want a durable expansion with low inflation. >> markets are shifting toward

a rate cut in december. what are you thinking? december, january? >> we need an open mind. there is information to gather, labor market report on friday and opportunity to talk to our contacts to assess the economy. a lot of on the groundwork talking to businesses, more data to collect before we can shape the forecast for next year. that's what a data dependent fed looks like. >> when you look at core inflation moving sideways around 3%. >> it depends on the data points, the fundamentals affecting the forecast and inflation the labor market is no longer a source of

inflationary pressure. supply and demand in progress, not a lot of upward pressure. we know inflation would be a bumpy ride down and we are seeing that but we shouldn't give up on the fact that it is coming down. it's moving down gradually and that's important for families and businesses but there is more work to do. even if we do another rate cut policy will remain instinctive. i don't ca stall. it is useful to watch this. we have to be very focused on inflation. we are not going to stop when inflation is the target. we will get it to 2%. neil: we are looking at tariff policies. what would a 10% tariff on goods coming to the port of la do? >> it depends.

this, the fed does not think in hypotheticals because the economy, complex and large beast but it is a complex and large entity and it depends on how it is, what are the other players for goods that come into another country. we have trade issues, tariffs and the economy adjusts. >> how do you look at tariff senior forecast models? >> we don't have a tariff plan, we know historically how tariffs impact the economy. we are prepared to assess things, the president-elect hasn't to come into office yet and the right thing to give hints his team a chance to put policies forward before we react.

>> companies don't like uncertainty. what are your contacts saying in terms of the mood. >> on hiring, employers are more comfortable in terms of their ability to hire workers who do their jobs and do them quickly. they are filling posed editions. if they have attrition they are refilling positions for their core work to grow their business, they are not getting over their skis and their perspectives to grow outside taking a lot of risk. that cautious optimism is there. the outlook for the economy, not a lot of uncertainty, does inflation come down, how will the fed react and what will growth look like? >> you had 12,000 jobs created last month.

>> listen to friday's report. we have a lot of disruptions. i don't take a lot of signal from the that. i'm looking at the broader trajectory and you see rebalancing. >> the fed was into rearview, the fed has not had a major overhaul in 100 years. we would like, the only fed on the west coast, san francisco and dallas, the only federal reserve districts headquartered in not on the mississippi. >> more powerful. seriously i don't think about that ever. it is never something that has come up. what is important, this is the critical part. do we have perspectives from these geographies? the answer is absolutely. i spend a lot of time traveling across my district and we are gathering information from our

constituents and bringing that information back to the fomc table. the benefit of how the system has been set up even though it was 100 years old. >> where is your neutral rate, 3. 5% to 4%, a full percentage point from where we are? >> i put it closer to 3%. to my mind it has gone up a little bit. it has gone up a little bit, but i'm not willing to say it has gone up that much. >> how fast do we need to get their? >> we can take our time and adjust as the economy gives us more information. the most important thing, inflation is going to get to two and we are going to continue to have restrictive policy. >> in your mind, rate hikes are off the table. >> i don't see a reason for a rate hike. ico trajectory, change is down.

>> thank you for your time. there you have it. hedging on a december rate cut, january rate cut, we could have one. we get you on that. julie: both made a lot of news the big news item, december rate cut is not off the table. strong economic data including of the jolt report showed more job openings. we will ask kenny polcari. rate cut not off the table? >> i don't think they should be. i'm in the camp they should not cut rates in december. they have 've gone too far too fast, pay attention to the new administration. i don't think they should cut

rates in front of that, to see what happens. i actually think tomorrow, when we hear jay powell, i expect them to lean more hawkish than dovish. neil: that might be you keep year arrows in the quiver. there is going to be some in the market upset if we don't ca cut. whatever your views on the subject how the markets react to that. >> you get the people who stamp their feet when they don't get what they want, making ridiculous decisions, selling the market until they get what they want. the market is extended, if jay powell leans hawkish you will see the market pullback and i would love to see the market pullback. it's gone in a straight line up

since the election it hasn't had a chance to digest and breathe. do i think it is a disaster? not at all. i think most investors appreciate the fact that he's taking a step back because ppi was hotter than expected. pce harder than expected and cpi and ppi again just days ahead of the next fed meeting. it is suggesting inflation is continuing to turn. inflation is an -- inflation isn't coming down. the pace of rising prices is coming down. when i go to the supermarket and purchase butter or chicken or meet, those prices are not down. it is those prices are not coming down. we are not in a deflationary environment where we see prices come down. everything is great, i am not there. neil: a rate of increase coming

down that increases, we watch it closely. thank you very much. good to catch up with you. south korea, the riots breaking out elsewhere throughout the country after the battle between the south korean president declaring martial law very early this morning to target opposition party members working and helping north korea. his own party came in to block martial law implementation. tensions between north and south are already hired a lot of people have criticized the south korean president for agitating things by dealing with this. his own party turning on him saying you went too far.

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neil: this is the definition of instability going on in south korea. live images from saul, the president of that country declared martial law accusing the left-wing block that

controls the national assembly of north korean sympathies and might have been spies. he did this, his own party turned on him saying that you're going one step, maybe two steps too far. the currency out of a 2-year loan, tied to the south korean market have been dropping 2% to 5%, you can trade on the currency and the currency is getting battered but this is unexpected. his own party's reaction and the tense relationship of the continues with north korea. you don't often see developments like this in the south korea but we are seeing them away. david: it has been relatively calm since then. the biggest concern for americans is not just curiosity

but we have us troops they are still. they have remained since the end of the korean war, most of the time doing regular peacekeeping, no risk of war but this is frightening. there have been, i am not supporting any side and don't know if there is any validity to the president's claims that north koreans infiltrated the south korean government but they have in the past and we know that because a lot of those north korean spies came over to the south korean side and admitted they were spies and came out and had regrets about having done so. i have no idea whether it is true but if it is true it would pick the military which is under control of the president who says there were spies in the government against the people in the street saying we don't want martial law. that could get really dicey.

where do americans play in this? hopefully they don't at all. the question is whether they can avoid it at all and that is yet to be seen. neil: think about asian markets across the region under enormous pressure especially with the threat of tariffs not so far directed at south korea but china, the chinese market and their currency tumbling on concerns about this. david: it has become a parlor trick to take one of those global of view from space look at the korean peninsula at night time you see south korea lit with artificial lights and this line in the barrier between south and north korea, north korea is black with very few exceptions of faint lights. it is a devil economy, north korea. yet all they have is put into

the military. they remain a huge threat to the south. this could get ugly quickly particularly if there's a confrontation in the streets, new civilians standing without iconic pose in front of a tank so there are a lot of people opposed to martial law many for good reasons, nobody in a democracy likes martial law. it is anti-democratic by nature to declare martial law because it suspends all the civil liberties a democracy has. having said that, lord knows what is happening in the background but the bottom line is for the united states this is not just anot. economically it does but those 30,000 us troops that are stuck

there as pea become affiliatesr between north and south. neil: just tuning in watching live images from seoul, south korea where there are concerns the government is out of control and martial law was declared this morning but was rescinded by the president. his own party rescinding that saying he went a step too far but the argument for imposing martial law was the left is too closely aligned with north korea and there might be spies in the midst of. we don't know the veracity of that but the president's own party said cool it and we hope cooler heads prevail but ongoing tensions and provocative ones with the north koreans, north korean soldiers fighting with russia in ukraine, talk about a powder cake.

david: hate to be an alarmist but the whole world is a powder cake. we have a war in europe for the first time since world war ii, significant activity in the middle east whether it is israel against lebanon, hezbollah, lebanon or israel against hamas and gaza. the possibility of peace still exists. every one of those countries that exist as an enemy of the united states is afraid of what trump is going to do because he has seen, a lot more defensive of us interests than joe biden was so there is this cat and mouse game and you wonder how much his bluff on the part of what north korea might be doing to put the new president when he comes into office in 48 days on notice that things aren't going to be so easy, we are not going to give up our interests so easy. all this comes into play not just in korea but all over the

globe. the new president is going to have a lot on his plate when he comes into office. david: thank you. to put it in perspective most of the asian markets close before this spat out of control including japanese market. the china market was careening separately but the best way to gauge reaction, i shared and a host of other etfs that trade linked to south korea and they are getting hit so you see a lot of this prior to the president declaring martial law and the dissolution of martial law so the peg on this is looking at the currency in south korea and anything related to it, i shares, etfs tanking from 2% to 5%, more after this.

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it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people. neil: this was not on the list of anybody's list of possibilities around the world but south korean president

earlier declared martial law invoking temporary military rule and a lot of people saying why, there are north korean influences and the opposition party. the opposition party said this is bogus and stupid. don't know what the south korean words are but that is what they said and the president's own party said you are going too far. don't know if you looked at the streets but there are protesters, hundreds of thousands, the appearance of military tanks to add to the angst and the fear and you've got a global hotspot we didn't think would land in seoul, south korea. aishah hasnie with reaction to this. a lot of these guys are returning, republicans huddled behind closed doors as they assist their battle strategy. has this come up at all? >> we haven't heard anything

from senators just yet. them are meeting with republican senators, meeting with those trump nominees. the president-elect has his thumb on what is happening, we haven't heard anything about what is happening overseas but we will see if he says something on truth social. he's in palm beach attending a memorial service for fallen officers along with ron desantis. he did call in earlier to a gop conference meeting the. some gop senators were meeting with house speaker mike johnson to talk policy and trump's agenda and how to hit the ground running as they take control of the house and senate. senator captito told us republicans want to use the reconciliation process to bypass the filibuster to push

policies on border, taxes and economic reforms but that has its own limits. watch. >> there are limits to that and that is what we will discuss, what can we do, what is possible and what is limiting and how do we work from there, this is laying the groundwork for a busy january until summer. >> reporter: i will reach out to the trump transition team to see if the president-elect has something to say about what's happening in south korea. neil: we've got congressman chip roy of the house freedom caucus, crucial player when it comes to these international developments. out of the blue, this martial law declared and undeclared in south korea, trusted confidant and friend of the united states which provocations from the north we are told, the president-elect has a good relationship with the north korean president. how do you think this is going to go? that is going to drop on his

plate when he gets into office. >> i need to get advice on specifics what is going on but this happens with a total failure and lack of leadership coming from the white house and that is what we had under president biden. the weakness around the globe, you can't allow what is happening in terms of us backing away from our own energy policies that fueled the situation in ukraine, empowering our enemies, and powering iran when we should be standing alongside israel. all of this is destabilizing around the world and enemies see weakness. with donald trump they will see strength. i hope we can navigate the next month and a half safely as we continue to see hotspot so donald trump can get in with the adults we need and leadership positions to make sure we have a more peaceful world. neil: in the house the thinnest of majorities to move forward.

those that worry you? >> we have a thin majority in the house, we are looking at 220-215 majority with matt gaetz not being present, 219-215, the senate is 53-forty seven. that means we've got to do the work ahead of time. we have to decide as republicans what to do for the american people and are we going to honor the commitments the president made and we made to them? if we don't do that we will be tossed out on our year, we must deliver with respect to the border come we've got to secure it and engage in the deportations that were promised on the campaign trail but we've got to have fiscal sanity. when we talk about von problem with our economy and economic woes and issues with the american people in terms of affordability of goods and services and inflation, it is driven by regulations that is absolutely devastating and spending in washington. we've got to stop with the printing machine in washington. this will be the news my fellow

republicans need to hear. some will not go along to get along when it comes to business as usual because k street tells us what to do with respect to tax policy, we are going to demand that we reduce deficits. we've got to do that to deliver on what donald trump ran on. elon, vivek, treasury secretary nominee, all admitted spending is destroying the american economy. that will be front and center in january. neil: we will see how it works out. a key player of the tiniest majority there. we are hearing the south korean developer and reaction from the white house, national security council spokesperson said the us was not notified in advance of this announcement by the south korean president, they knew nothing about it and the

neither the south korean president's own party. more after this. at harbor freight, we do business differently from the other guys. we design and test our own tools. and sell them directly to you. no middleman. just quality tools you can trust at prices you'll love. ♪

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lauren: 1 we've not heard from the president of south korea after the national assembly populated by many in his own party voted to overrule his declaration of martial law but we understand the president wants to halt all political activities and take command of the news media and many are saying this is why people are clashing with police outside the national assembly. that scares the you know what out of them. that's south korean for scares the you know what out of them. this is ongoing and crowds are not going away because no one has heard from the president. "the big money show" is now, taylor riggs, take it. brian: thanks for the good coverage