piping in 12 drummers drumming have increased rates of nearly 60% maybe add these to the santa wishlist until they find their way back down six to 9:00 a.m. on fox business. hope you will join me every weekday i see you this sunday 10:00 a.m. eastern presented boarding features i got exclusive interviews with incoming national security advisor michael waltz incoming white house press secretary karoline leavitt. the archbishop timothy dolan, my special guest sunday at 10:00 a.m. on fox news that will do it, now on fox business, thank you so much for joining us. have a very merry christmas and a happy hanukkah. have a great rest of the weekend. i will see you nex >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x ets.

>> welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead i am jack otter, the u.s. housing market finishing out a rough year of high prices, sluggish sales executive vp iv zelman is here to tell us what can save it and what can expect in 2025. the u.s. economy is going strong heading into 2025 per the stock market outperformed again next year. we begin with the expert panel of three things investors auditing about right now. on the "barron's roundtable" ben levisohn, teresa and our route, stocks got walloped when the fed came out with a hawkish rate cut but then a nice calm inflation number came out on friday and the buyers return. >> it was ahead spinning week not maybe the exorcist head spinning but we were freaking out on wednesday, the fed did

exactly what we expected it to do in the stock market had one of the worst fed days in a very, very very long time, nothing much happened on thursday. inflation number came up the pce which is the fed's favorite number was a little weaker than expected of the marker under market had a good day if they were worried about whether the government might shut down or not. jack: that is a worry no surprise the bond market was listening to the fed we could see a flight to safety and the government shuts down but in the meantime the tenure closed over 45 which is an important inflection point, where do we go from here. >> that's an interesting thing the yields have been rising for quite a while even before the fed made the announcement. with the fed being hawkish it might've stopped going up but it did not until friday with inflation. i think it's a fairly good spot if he can reset here and start coming down again i think the market will be okay if it goes up towards 5% or over 5% the market might freak out a little bit more. >> we don't expect much freaking

hour exorcist head spinning next week anything more on your radar? >> we want to see how the market responds on monday to this week and we had a very good day on friday but we want to see follow-through. if he could do that on monday that would be a great thing. otherwise it's going to be quiet we will watch football (and just relax as much as we can. jack: truly an exciting week for elon musk whose net wealth reached an amazing or an almost amazing half a trillion dollars and icing on the cake ramp all to be speaker of the house. let's talk about the stock. an interesting analysis came out on friday, ben and i are fans needed over some provide analysis. tesla expected to earn four bucks this year discounting cashel, call it $40 stock if the earnings number went up. but it's not under $40 is under $430. which by his analysis is 90% of

the stock price based on things happen in the future that's really unusual for caput 11. >> is not unusual for tesla. >> is an interesting week, when is it not interesting for elon musk. ted six-point of former analyst. the $40 doesn't really take growth. if you take a look at the s&p 500 using mixed math like 50% for future growth like 90% for tesla. we did this exercise a few weeks ago when we wrote about tesla we said you can justify traditional evaluation $200 a share for tesla car in energy storage business, the stock trading 2430, 220, $230 for elon magic. that is fairly typical for tesla stock. it is always an expensive stock. the mag seven trades estimated

25 earnings tesla trade for 130 is always on this basis. i would say sellers beware right now because we had the election we had expectation for big events in 2025. wall street estimates are rising, wall street price targets are rising you do not want to get in the way of a freight train. you may be ultimately right with evaluation tech arguments, be a little sensitive that there is a lot of momentum. brian: i would not short the guy with the president-elect. since the election i believe his net worth has increased by $20 billion. how do you think about that relationship going forward. >> since the election the stock is $170 going up, that is $530 billion which would make it the increase would be top ten stock in the s&p 500. it is unbelievable. most people see the trump musk relationship benefiting with overregulation and smoother

pathway to self driving robo taxis which tesla wants to introduce in 2025. those of the things that people are focused on. jack: let's go to less exciting product but a great brand, nike was expected to have bad earnings this week, it was worse than expected. >> that is true unfortunately, they have had a really difficult year, interestingly i saw an analyst note from gordon suggesting that target and nike will team up next year. you can find nike shoes and target aisles. it's a match made in heaven, those are two companies that wish to in 2024. it said them problem not a market problem. target cannot sell discretionary items when everyone else could, nike can't sell shoes when everyone is wearing sneakers. i don't know if that is the answer but they have to turn something. jack: anything else that they contrive a path for a turnaround story. >> they are making hard decisions in the new ceo that is optimistic he can right the ship. it's not going to be quick and is not going to be easy but if i

had to choose a company to turn around you can do worse than nike given the brand equity and international reputation. brian: maybe they can find a better celebrity endorsement than your favorite. jack: i don't know about that. jack: do the breakdancing. >> sorry. jack: thank you teresa. the fed rate cuts, mortgage rates have barely botched. executive vice president iv zelman on what that can mean for meet the traveling trio. each helping to protect their money with chase. wooo! tools that help protect. alerts that help check. one bank that puts you in control. chase. make more of what's yours.

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joining me now zelman and associates executive vice president iv zelman, thank you for coming on the show. >> thank you for having me. >> let's start with the question for anybody in the housing market as a buyer. is it going to get easier to buy a house in 2025? >> unfortunately i don't think so. we are in an environment where rates remain higher for longer. we are at a high level of stress affordability. i think there has been a real bifurcation in the market with respect to the entry-level be much more challenge than the higher end which continues to outperform with a lot of cash fires. it is pretty tough out there. finding a home and qualifying and coming up or down payments clicking entry-level buyers today. brian: speaking of rates, there based on the ten year bond which recently closed about 4.5%. jack: is spread which varies. in recent years that has been getting bigger. can you explain why that is and

where you expect to see it go from here. >> the spread has come down from the highs, it was not over 300 at some point. historically it's about 160 - 100 basis points. the big part of the spread and how wide it got to because the fed stepped out of the mbs market, along with thanks that were buying mbs and then you look at the risk of prepayments accelerating, mbs want higher return in the risk of default has been the culprit that is kept the spread wider. jack: do you have any advice, it would be different depending on what part of the market you are in but let's say you're in the lower difficult part of the market. what is your advice to buyers. >> i would buy new construction builders are buying more value with mortgage rates down to the five range and therefore mitigating the stretch of affordability in the lending

market there's definitely a lot of opportunity with discounting prevalent for buyers to take advantage of that. jack: that's a great segue, what is your view for markets of the builders and the housing stocks. >> the builders are well-positioned to continue to drive volume higher. they have a lot of new communities coming out we have anywhere from 5 - 10% growth and community count and they have a big pipeline of land that they will be working through. while they'll have to look at prices as a lever to move the inventory i think it to be the benefit to the consumer that is buying the homes in builders today that are focused on entry-level the offer the best value. jack: there are some houses, that's been an okay market, not quite where it was and glory years of the past. >> it kind of was a perfect storm this year, the builders were accelerating as a selling season got off to a strong start and is a market unfortunately saw higher rates coming into the fall they are working through

but there dialing back the . what we see is an adjustment phase but that the benefit to the consumer. >> among the housing stocks are there any that your firm has come out bullish of, would you like? >> we like bernard. they just announced earnings yesterday pretty challenging quarter, the stock pulled back quite a bit. it's a good entry point in looking at where it's trading at a valuation typically does not go much lower at one and a half times today and they announced the spin of 6 - 8000000000 of land that will be a company called melrose and that will allow for them to be driving returns much higher. i think the transformation will ultimately result in one of the best-performing builders from my steward of capital in all aspects of the ratio will be the best in the space. i'm optimistic this pullback is a good opportunity. we like the higher end builders because the bifurcation in the market is pretty pronounced with

a high-end continues to outperform, we like toll brothers, dream finders and taylor morrison to name a few that are focused more on the high-end. jack: do you see any consolidation in this market. there is still quite a few players in the market the smaller ones and people wonder is warren buffett going to buy an entire builder outright, what are your thoughts. >> i think buffett has been pretty aggressive in terms of acquiring builders if they have nine under berkshire hathaway will be within the top five if you look at the aggregate volume that they have but as it goes to buying a public company. i'm not so sure there is appetite for that but there is consolidation happening, then art announced that they acquired one of the top 20 builders in the southeast and what were continuing to see is a consolidation of publix accounting for more than 50% of the market share of the new home market. when i covered the space 30 years ago it was high single

digits. they've done a great job of growing organically and outperforming as well as acquisition but i'm not so sure we will see consolidation within the public arena. jack: thank you so much. it'll be interesting to see when people sell their own homes and then this market can get going. right now a lot of gridlock. >> thank you so much for having me, happy holidays. jack: the stock market heading i need to get me a new phone. you need to trade-in that busted up phone and get you a brand new iphone 16 pro at t-mobile. it's on them. families save 20% every month. what a deal!

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your offer reality check same look under the hood is gotten so great. you appear in your crystal ball and come out bullish, what's going on. >> 's surprise me. i went into looking at the market for 2025 thinking this is crazy, stocks are expensive, people are too optimistic were talking about american exceptionalism as if there are no other choices. i came out thank you. again another 20%. it comes down to a few things the economy is strong and we have a.i. that will provide a boost and we have a deregulatory impulse that is going to be very helpful if you put it together you get is the third consecutive 20% gain. that idea 20% is well above the wall street consensus, does not worry you. >> wall street consensus is usually wrong it tends to go between the high single digits, low double digits, this year about 10% and we couldn't get in

and between 0 and 10%. i look at that and were either getting it a loss this coming year or will have another big game. i think will be at the beginni beginning. >> were both capricorns, let's be pragmatic. i think there are a lot of things to worry about. as you said everything is expensive, geopolitical worries and people who are not elected impacting government policy, not to mention the bull market is getting a little long in the tooth and history shows third-year gains are not as big, we should be a little concerned. >> i hear you and i thought about it but there's a lot of little things that point to the big gains. year ending in 510 to be great. the average 20% gains. it's so ridiculous but we have a strong economic momentum going. that is good and profit margins could expand from deregulation and from a.i. that's going to fuel the market further. >> profit margin expansion and some of the tailwinds that you outline means accelerating earnings growth and is very difficult to see a disastrous

year, no s&p 500 earnings and 10% and 24, right now are expected to grow earnings above 50% 25. accelerating earnings growth offsets a lot of fears. jack: we will see will happen but i feel like investors but a higher multiple on the higher earnings and at some point we have to use the b word and

i will look for two things one is a possibility of a recession we have to watch on employment rate that has been a very good sign that could be recession coming in it would derail this market completely. the other side of the fed decided to raise interest rates, that could mark the knocked the market down that room turned it into a bus. jack: buddy by. >> stick with the mag seven and you could go with cyclical stocks, the value stocks like bank and oil stocks. >> we talk about deregulation from 2.0 that tends to be good for domestic businesses. that is small caps. also small caps are a lot cheaper for the s&p 500, s&p 600 small cap trade 16 or 17 and also has one of my favorite takers. the spider is spasm, sps m. >> for a volatile market that sounds perfect. >> speaking of cheap as patriotic as the next person, american exceptionalism does not come cheap.

i think maybe this is finally the year the overseas markets could get some action. were talking about a.i. a lot of the a.i. supply chain is outside of the u.s. there is a lot of cheaper ways to play that than just the mag seven. >> one thing that we should all be doing, as the market goes up we should rebalance we should not have too many stocks or u.s. stocks there's always an international component to our portfolio and small caps, we should make sure that we rebalance and hopefully if things don't go well for the u.s. some of the other stocks will pick up the slack. >> somewhat overweight the dollar strong, that makes foreign stocks a better deal. alan and ben have investment ideas. teresa warns a dark side to america's shopping obsession as ♪ there was a tree, down in the woods ♪ ♪ the prettiest tree, ♪ ♪ that you ever did see... ♪ ♪ now the tree has roots that need water to grow ♪ ♪ grow jobs, grow skills ♪

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jack: we always talk about the indomitable american consumer power in our economy forward by training dollars in spending but you wrote an interesting story, the cover of barron's that showed a dark side to all the spending. >> we all have impulsive buying tendencies. i bought this dress on and pulls on black friday. i think it was a mistake but here we are. the problem is more people are going to the compulsive side where they can't stop. many people would say, that is a willpower issue. get better with your spending but it's not a fair fight anymore. most valuable and powerful companies in the world are developing algorithms that get us to spend more. algorithms are like a black box, mental health don't know what in them, consumers don't know what is in them. we don't know what they know about us but they're getting better every day at pushing her

buttons. jack: you said the algorithm might detect when somebody is down and more vulnerable to spending and it's a really serious problem for you the numbers this is a much bigger problem than gambling and it kind of falls between the crooks. is not a financial planner or a psychologist thing. >> exactly, people think 1% of americans are compulsive gamblers but. reporter: rough estimates are 5% of americans are compulsive shoppers. that number is too low. during the pandemic ordered acting more impulsively and more people are shopping on their smart phones and research shows yet less and pull control in that case. it is true, there aren't any warning labels on these sites when you go to a gambling site there has to be a warning label and a resource but you will never get cut off but you can get cut off at the bar. even if you're trying to get help people don't know where to go because mental health professionals cannot deal with debt. in financial advisors can't deal with the mental health. >> thank you.

let's go to actionable ideas, what you have for. >> looking at the year end, the ten highest yield in the dow jones industrial, wall street's favorite to merck and company, two turnarounds for 2025. jack: interesting strategy especially the market tanks with those dividends. >> for solo drop 25% in the past three months, people are worried about donald trump's policy for renewable energy. this is only solar panel maker in the u.s. if the president follows through on his tariffs is going to do pretty well to add a support level looks like a decent time to buy. jack: inc. even, out and teresa, check out this edition of barron's.com that is all for us, have a merry christmas, happy hanukkah and we will see you next week on "barron's >> from the fox studio in new york city. this is "maria bartiromo wall street". maria: hee