Skip to main content

tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  January 7, 2025 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

2:00 pm
politics were at play here. when we heard from the ceo of u.s. steel yesterday, i said to myself, this needs to be investigated. taylor: let's see what trump says. he's a good listener regardless of the outcome. he will listen to what the union and the union members, rank-and-file -- brian: but they have a different view than the union leadership and that's important. taylor: quickly counting you down about two hours until the closing bell. i wanted to point out, we were significantly higher this morning and then we got a few pieces of economic data. job openings are higher but quit rates aren't going up so employers are trying to hire. there was also a prices paid component within the ism data this morning that showed prices are the highest since january 2023, so all of this , brian, means the fed may not be cutting early next year. brian: yeah, inflation is not dead. charles payne very much alive and ready to make money. here he is. charles: they better not start talking about rate hikes, all right?
2:01 pm
jackie: oh, my god, bite your tongue. charles: yeah, thanks a lot, everyone. good afternoon, i'm charles payne. this is "making money" and breaking right now, so profit-taking and tech. by the way folks this is par for the course. but i'll tell you what's not par for the course the future is here and i could tell you, it is going to be amazing. we've got cody willard on science fiction and generational wealth and there is anxiety in the air. we have wall street legend bob doll with us and what he sees in 2025. he says be ready for fewer tailwinds and tail risk and more economic data that suggests maybe the fed has lost the thread. brian wesbury warned us, what could happen if the fed blows it? meanwhile donald trump is not in office but already delivering for the american public. my take on the business world getting on board with special guest rebecca walser. all that and so much more on "making money."
2:02 pm
in the first 10-15 minutes of trading every sector in the s&p 500 was higher, but you could tell right away there was a defensive tone. the defensive sectors popped the most reflecting sort of anxiety which is coming somewhat palpable. there's a lot of concern you could see our fear and greed index now smack dab in the fear zone. this is interesting, considering we started today like less than 2% from an all-time high so to be in the fear zone, it's kind of interesting, right? now i'll tell you something though. even more egregious than that if you will, the 10-year yield, right? this 10-year yield is just going up and up and up. here is historically what usually happens when the fed starts cutting rates at least you go back to 1989. generally we work our way down, right? when it comes to bond yields so this is where we are right now and we keep going higher. that's a red flag. a yellow flag if not a red flag. we'll have brian wesbury on later to talk about that. of course, there was some profit taking right out of the gate, and some of it happened after some of this economic data came out. now there was the jolts report,
2:03 pm
8 million job openings. i don't pay a lot of attention to that but this is really important. ism. the service report came out so we've got ism services and manufacturing, all of the things we want to go in a certain direction kind of went in the wrong directions if you will particularly when it comes to the fed so on the service side, 54.1 and anything above 50 is expansion, estimates were 53, that came in higher-than-expected. we also had new orders which came in pretty high. employment though sequentially was down and that's something of a red flag. still remember service economy is supposed to be strong. we're not far from contraction and this really is the big, big problem. look at that. prices were 64.4. this is really nuts, folks, the street was looking for something far less than that and last month it was 58. prices are going through the roof, again, again. by the way manufacturing in the same sort of thing, right? manufacturing on this side here, manufacturing p mi same thing. prices through the roof. something is not right.
2:04 pm
i'm not sure if the fed is paying attention to this but they should. the market is for sure because your fear index making a little bit of a move here up 7% maybe a little bit higher on the session, so a lot of anxiety building up here on the economic side of this , and just what may be the fed will do. meantime my first guest says the theme, his theme for 2025 is pretty simple. he sees fewer tailwinds and more tail risk. let's bring in cross mark global ceo and cio bob doll. i want your assessment for the predictions for the year. we finished 2024 really on a weak note, and we've gotten off to a choppy start for 2025. is there a message there that we should be hoenig in on? >> i think we will see a lot more chop. we are predicting as you saw, a higher vix this year. more uncertainty, more volatility. that doesn't have to be a horrible year but remember, last two years, stock market is up
2:05 pm
50%. roughly half of it from earnings, half of it from higher valuations. a lot of good news in the market charles. charles: let's start looking at your predictions here though because it's intriguing. okay, economic growth is going to slow, you're saying, but unemployment is going to go up. that's not the combination, is it? bob can you hear me? i don't think he can. let me go through some of these as we readjust bob. he looks very nice today by the way. wearing a brand new suit and his volume went down so when bob comes back i want to ask him about the economy, our growth slowing but unemployment going up. we've got to be worried about that. inflation also remains sticky, right? the fed thought this inflation thing was over. they started focusing on labor. now they say okay labor is okay. focus on inflation. we'll see if they get it right. the 10-year yield between 4-5%. again, if you go back six months ago, maybe nine months ago, wall street was saying that at
2:06 pm
this point, we were going to be 3.5 going lower. we're going higher right now to the 10-year yield. this might be the biggest problem for the market. earnings, they are going to achieve consensus again this is a big leap 14% growth. here is the thing, the 493. everyone is looking for the 493 stocks not the mag7 that sort of pick up the heavy lifting. they haven't been able to do it. i hope they can. i have faith maybe they will. you get things they call like easier comparisons so it means like a year ago, earnings weren't that great for the 493, so now they get to be better. and then of course the last thing is equity volume. so, bob, we've got you back. i was just going through your list. so just to pick-up on the things i was pointing out to the audience that bother me. obviously the unemployment rate going higher, inflation remaining sticky, 10 year yield between 4-5% or maybe six-nine months ago we thought it be 3.5% and the assumptions for earnings are rosey. so what do we get if you put all
2:07 pm
those together? >> we have more difficulty. it's going to be harder to make money this year, charles, with 20/20 hindsight. i know you had to be in the mag7, et cetera but the averages went up a lot. i think it's a struggle this year and it's going to be bumpy. one-day, like yesterday, we felt pretty good. one-day liked to we didn't feel so good. i think there's a lot of oscillation back and forth. charles: speaking of which an oscillation, a 10% correction. we got real spoiled last year but the problem is down 3%, 4%, 5% people start to pull their hair out. a 10% correction is not that bad but brace for one you're saying? >> exactly. we haven't had one in three-years. we typically get one every 15 or 10 months, and we haven't had one and with valuations at these levels, earnings, i think too rosey compared to what's delivered we'll get a pullback that will scare people at some point in time. charles: you like financials,
2:08 pm
energy, and consumer staples outperforming healthcare technology and industrials. you think congress will pass the trump tax extension but you are worried about the deportations and tariffs. the wildcard, number 10. doge. the efforts to really slim down government. how confident are you some of that could be done? >> i think some will get done. look there will be all kinds of efforts to do it and they will make good progress but nowhere near the advertised numbers. when you take out medicare, medicaid, social security, defense spending and net interest on the debt, there is "only $800 billion left." how do you get 2 trillion? charles: yeah. well, we know there's a lot of those hard numbers like the stuff we do spend on, marbelled inside that stuff, is a lot of waste. the idea is if the moates behind them can be pushed the same. charles: my next guest has also
2:09 pm
released his 2025 forecast and i want to bring in stock traders almanac editor in chief jeffrey hersh. so your base case, 8-12% gains for the year. best case, 12-20%. i was happy with your worst case because it was sort of flat-to-negative. bob just now said look for at least a 10% correction. let's start with the base case of 65% probability. what has to happen to make this come to fruition? >> i mean not a whole lot that great has to happen. just got to be pretty solid with some of the things mr. trump has tried to put through. we need inflation as you were showing before has to stay a little bit contained. the 10-year you were pointing out i'm looking at the 4.3 level not just between 4-5. we need to get those interest rates -- charles: you want it below 4.3, the 10-year? >> not below but not way above it. that's sort of the line in the sand but the area we need to stay around if not a little bit below but it be nice to be below that. charles: if we do somehow and these inflation numbers start to
2:10 pm
drift a little bit lower and now the focus is back on the fed being more a come o dave it is t the best case scenario? >> i think it has to do with what happens in washington. there's a lot of churn. i'm not confident they get all the doge stuff through, some per se, we know mr. trump wants to leave a legacy offerorring bulll market, economic stability, and if they can get more done than previous administrations have been able to do that's best case scenario. economic growth sustained, rates down, and success out of washington. charles: worst case, um, no one is saying it but golly. with the fed being involved in the worse case scenario? >> yeah, if you bit your tongue earlier with the cut comment and with the hike comment. if they have to hike it's an issue. if they don't get at least two in, i'm still thinking they could do a quarter, a quarter, when they come up with their
2:11 pm
economic projections. i think they reset the expectations in december. charles: stock traders almanac. you establish all these things like the santa claus rally and first few days of trading so you're the expert here. santa claus didn't show up this year. no santa. its happened before, and those years that its happened before the full year, only one was down 1.5% so we're up 18% but what had to happen for them to come to fruition? >> january barometer has to be positive. this is not just down santa claus rally. this is down santa claus rally with an up january barometer. both of these indicators were developed by my father so it's about january being the key and if we get to the end of this month we'll have the beginnings of the trump administration's agendas and policy initiatives come out so we'll have a good read on what's going on in d.c., better read on inflation the coming weeks when data comes out so the full month january is what the key is. charles: just brace, brace, brace, i've got less than a minute to go. >> yup. charles: your free lunch menu of
2:12 pm
bargain stocks. you get my attention with a free lunch and i've only heard of one of these stocks. >> these two are in the oil & gas exploration business. they are one of them does parts and stuff for wells and one is exploring and drilling, but top golf, you know, i'm a golfer, i love it. it's kind of fun to see basically the callaway acquisition has the stock down and these were picked that were down, made new 52-week lows on the friday before december it's an old strategy we have in the books, bounce higher than the market. so these were a few i highlighted. charles: just because they became oversold? >> tax loss selling, and then they pop very nicely historically. charles: folks, civi, invx, and modg. used to be calaway. great stuff. appreciate it. folks the future is here. it's here. i don't know if you saw any of this but nvidia ceo really put on it rock and roll show talking
2:13 pm
trillion dollar opportunities. cody willard is famous for being in these plays before almost. we're talking years before, so he's going to tell you how you can get your piece of the action, next. ♪ at harbor freight, we do business differently from the other guys. we design and test our own tools and sell them directly to you. no middleman. just quality tools you can trust at prices you'll love. known for creating memories.
2:14 pm
no one wants to be known for cancer, but a treatment can be. keytruda is known to treat cancer. fda-approved for 17 types of cancer, including certain early-stage and advanced cancers. one of those cancers is a kind of bladder and urinary tract cancer called advanced urothelial cancer. keytruda may be used with the medicine enfortumab vedotin in adults when your bladder or urinary tract cancer has spread or cannot be removed by surgery. keytruda can cause your immune system to attack healthy parts of your body during or after treatment. this may be severe and lead to death. see your doctor right away if you have cough, shortness of breath, chest pain, diarrhea, severe stomach pain, severe nausea or vomiting, headache, light sensitivity, eye problems, irregular heartbeat, extreme tiredness, constipation, dizziness or fainting, changes in appetite, thirst, or urine, confusion, memory problems, persistent or severe muscle pain or weakness, muscle cramps, fever, rash, itching, or flushing. there may be other side effects. tell your doctor about all medical conditions, including immune system problems, such as crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, or lupus,
2:15 pm
if you've had or plan to have an organ, tissue, or stem cell transplant, received chest radiation, or have a nervous system condition, such as myasthenia gravis or guillain-barré syndrome. keytruda is an immunotherapy and is also being studied in hundreds of clinical trials exploring ways to treat even more types of cancer. it's tru. keytruda from merck. see all the types of cancer keytruda is known for at keytruda.com, and ask your doctor if keytruda could be right for you.
2:16 pm
where ya headed? susan: where am i headed? am i just gonna take what the markets gives me? no. i can do some research. ya know, that's backed by j.p. morgan's leading strategists like us. when you want to invest with more confidence... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management let's go boys. the way that i approach work, post fatherhood, has really been trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families, like my own. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways.
2:17 pm
♪ ♪
2:18 pm
charles: so, we've been hearing about a lot of enthusiasm about the promise of the future. i mean, for decades, well guess what folks? the future is here, now. take a look. >> nuclear energy, goes to work. not destroying, but serving mankind. the power lines of tomorrow may also derive their electricity from the source of power the sun. in the electronic age the development of giant computers, electronic brains has been a key development. these incredibly complex machines are the mechanism anized geniuses of the 20th century. >> [applause] >> my friends.
2:19 pm
>> the chatgpt moment is just around the corner. charles: you saw it folks. we've come a long way in the last 70 years and despite jensen huang's excitement last night those tech stocks popped early and are selling off now. this day was the start of ces. every tech name was rocking and rolling, some of them were up huge. the next day a lot of red and the week was a lot of red but guess what that's selling on the news. the excitement part is here. essentially, i think, what we got yesterday from jensen was a road map. he gave investors the blueprint and maybe even a sort of timeline on how this thing will work, right? of course a lot of focus on autonomous vehicles and robots saying autonomous vehicle the revolution has arrived and you just heard him talk about chatgpt. sort of moment like that for robotics, just around the corner. so let's bring in early investor cody willard. first, let me just get your thoughts on the presentation. you liked that video right? the 1950 video? >> i listen to radio classics
2:20 pm
and i love science fiction from the 60s because a lot of it is happening even that little clip you played nuclear revolution. it's happening right now. charles: it really is amazing o i know there's a hype factor but i tell people every time you feel like there's a hype factor, everyday we do get closer to reality. last night it felt like we took a big leap toward it. >> that's right and we are living in the future. it is incredible even watching old "star trek." we now have the tri quarter basically on ipad. you can measure people's health. we're living in the science fiction future and if mankind can dream it, mankind can make it. we're waiting for what is when you zap yourself up and down from space. charles: that's the last one. this is where we are now, generative, this is the chatgpt moment came out on november 30 press release, nobody thought much of it and it changed the world. digital marketing, content creation, now the agent stuff,
2:21 pm
salesforce.com, stock was getting hammered and they came out with these a.i. agents one of the hottest stocks out there, customer service, patient care. so this is where we are now and this is around the corner. >> all this is actually in realtime happening. coca cola is not yet making commercials using a.i. generative technology but they are starting to experiment with it and within two or three-years, they will upload every -- charles: i love this stuff on x that these little videos particularly the political ones. they are amazing. i mean, amazing. >> that will be happening on normal commercials. even be more personalized for you as you're going through your filter and watching whatever your content is. netflix will be making personalized movies where your face will be on the main character. they will make all kinds of new movies faster, and the content creation, you know, within three to five years. that will be a regular thing. charles: so a.i. agents, right? i read they are going to 800 million people will lose their jobs because of them.
2:22 pm
i know you're not that, you're the exact opposite. we should be embracing the investment opportunities but it won't be seamless will it? >> i think it will be more seamless than people picture. right now one of the big things is that coders, you know, the software developers won't be needed like they used to be because a.i. is creating the code, but that reminds me maybe of the year 2000 like we don't need paper because everybody reads e-mail. it actually for years accelerated paper demand because you were printing out more things. there will be more software developers in five years than there are right now. throw down the gauntlet on that. charles: really because my granddaughter is taking coding classes. robots, flying taxis, quantum computing, and you still say as an investor, stick with these big names. stick with the tesla, nvidia, and the spacex? >> right especially like you talk about quantum computing and it'll be nvidia or google that will conquer quantum computing. it's not a start-up thing. charles: the small names sometime liked to aur is up 40%,
2:23 pm
right? >> full self-driving. charles: yes, so nvidia, how many acquisitions they make last year, a hundred? >> no not that many but yeah. charles: they made a lot though. >> they bolt parts on but beyond that, they have the best development, they have the best developers, the best technology, taiwan semiconductor always is going to be, not always but for years to come, taiwan semiconductor will be the dominant client the maker of all of the chips. so much of it is harder than you think. let's go to self-flying cars and stuff. tesla is slowly but surely going to dominate that market in five to 10 years when it gets legalized. charles: the firm that downgraded tesla today and put pressure on that stock are they just being too short-sided? >> they are always downgrading tesla for something or another. look, i wrote that book. the ultimate tesla vision is that within say 15-20 years you
2:24 pm
could have billions of tesla robots generating recurring revenue, very high margins. you'll have self-flying cars, not self-driving cars, and those margins will be insane and so i'm looking at a $30 trillion market cap in 15 years as i've been saying for the last two, three-years. charles: my man, great seeing you as always. cody. so, my next guest says that the biggest and most expensive risk for investors is not being in this market, right? if you play around too much with this thing and try to pinpoint tops and bottoms you'll pay a heavy price. kelly will explain more and she's next. ♪
2:25 pm
after last month's massive solar flare added a 25th hour to the day, businesses are wondering "what should we do with it?" i'm thinking company wide power nap. [ employees snoring ] anything can change the world of work. from hr to payroll, adp designs for the next anything.
2:26 pm
♪today my friend you did it, you did it♪ pursue a better you with centrum. ♪ it's a small win toward taking charge of your health. ♪ so, this year, you can say... ♪you did it!♪ (auctioneer) let's start the bidding at 5 million dollars. thank you, sir. (man) these people of privilege... hoarding the financial advantages for far too long. (auctioneer) 7.5 at the back. (man) look at them — unaware that robinhood gold members now enjoy the vip treatment — a 3% ira match on retirement contributions. (auctioneer) 11 million sir. (man) once they discover their privileges are no longer exclusive... their fragile reality will plunge into disarray. ♪
2:27 pm
2:28 pm
2:29 pm
charles: all right folks. now americans right now believe in the stock market more than any time ever, ever. take a look at the chart up at the corner that big arrow, red arrow. about 35% of total financial assets in the stock market. that is by far a record. you know what's really interesting ironically the last retail investor sentiment read we got, the bullishness, see that green bar how its been a retreat? it is below the historic norm not long ago that was over 50%. now her latest note my next guest says believe in the bull market. joining me wealth management chief market
2:30 pm
strategist callie cox. wall street normally sees heavy main street exposure as a sell signal. what do you tell people that listen, the markets doing extremely well, they are in the market but wall street thinks it's going to crash because you're in the market. >> what i bring people back to is it's usually best not to buy and sell on vibes because the market follow the economy and earnings. that's what we always go back to and the foundation of everything we do. so, taking in this latest data, charles, i think it's pretty easy to say that expectations are high given all those growth stories that are so encouraging heading into 2025 and the fact that the job market is stabilizing a little bit, i think it's a mistake to step out of the market just because confidence is a little bit higher. charles: you talk about that a lot. in fact i have a table from some of your notes we call it having faith, right? you talk about the first thing is how expensive it is to miss a bull market. i know from a psychological point of view, 2008 going into 2009 so many people said i'm going to wait and then 2009 you
2:31 pm
weren't born yet, they were saying "the talk" on wall street was that the next shoe to fall be commercial real estate so nobody got in the market. all of a sudden, we start coming back, i'm not getting in, wait for the commercial real estate crash and people missed out what turned out to be the greatest move in history. >> it's a perfect example, charles. i think something else i want to mention here is that everybody thinks in black and white and there are so many shades of grey to invest in. maybe confidence is a little bit higher now, sentiment is frothy but it doesn't necessarily mean you need to sell and run for the hills, right? high expectations mean muted gains going forward. at least historically, they have and that's not necessarily a bad thing. it's not the blow-out years we've seen recently but it's also not this doom scenario that some people are making it out to be. charles: but also there is this , and you point this out too about a lot of value in unloved stocks. this is a bifurcated market where 10 stocks are 35% of the overall market. that means there's a lot of
2:32 pm
value in there somewhere. >> yeah, and charles i was telling somebody that it kind of feels like i'm an analyst during the late 90s and not saying a bubble is coming up but you look at the fundamentals and it looks to be so much value and so much of the market but tech in the a.i. story is just such a freight train so what you have to do is almost allocate to both and just be really careful about rebalancing. charles: you can't get off the freight train. you don't want to guess when it's going to stop. you did write something i was intrigued by. why investors are losing their parachutes. what's that mean? >> this is the 10-year yield, the question everybody on wall street is at least asking why do we see a 10-year yield at 4.6 right now and it keeps drifting higher what should i think about it? i looked into it and it turns out growth expectations and inflation expectations are not what has driven the recent increase in the 10-yeael it's everything else. worries about the deficit, you know, technical momentum. the fact that naturally, longer rates are more volatile especially as they get higher, so investors as they go into
2:33 pm
the new year should start thinking about longer bonds. of course as that portfolio cushion but understand it might not act that way. charles: a 60/40 portfolio the last couple years if it wasn't for the stock market rally its been ugly. the bond market, and a lot of our older investors are into that big time. in just 30 seconds, you do a fair amount about confidence versus arrogance. what's the difference and why does it matter? >> i use the high school example. it's you being confident asking your date to the prom or you being arrogant and not thinking twice. charles: and just showing up on prom night. >> we all know confidence and arrogance are two different things but the problem is theres a thin line between both and if you become too cairo gantt arrou become a little bit more vulnerable. charles: bottom line stay in this market? >> stay in this market until the economy tells us otherwise. charles: great stuff. appreciate you. folks, you know, interesting that today, we did get economic data that came in better-than-expected but
2:34 pm
overall, the economic surprise index has been in free fall. take a look at the blue line. it has been dropping pretty precipitously. now, my next guest has been concerned about the economy for some time. let's bring him in, chief economist brian wesbury. brian? before we even start about this state of the economy, the market, kind of limped out of 2024 and is struggling right now. what do you make of it? you've been something of a critic of the market. you know, in other words, pointing out some of the historic valuations. you think it's catching up here? >> yeah, charles. people used to call me a perma bull because i was bullish for so long and now, i've had actually people calling me a perma bear and they laugh at me because i've been wrong. charles: which ones feels worse by the way? when you go out to a restaurant does it feel worse to be called a bear or a bull? >> perma bear for sure because i'm really bullish on america in the long run, especially now
2:35 pm
with trump's policies of deregulation and hopefully cutting spending, keeping taxes low. that makes me really optimistic in the long run. my theory has been that we had a car wreck and our bumper fell off and that was covid. we lockdown and we taped it on with duct tape and as long as we keep adding duct tape it stays on, and so what i mean by that is we've had two trillion dollars budget deficits each in the last two years and that's the duct tape. and one of the things i think people need to be careful about is that when trump comes in and if we do cut spending those deficits go down. that duct tape might not work. i just feel like underneath there's some real problems and when i look around at the delinquencies rising for low income borrowers, for car loan defaults, all of the ism reports that we
2:36 pm
get for manufacturing have been negative. there's a lot of negative news out there, and i'm not trying to be debbie downer. i just don't think we've ever paid a price for the mistakes we made during covid. charles: so then maybe the bond market, the canary in the coal mine, maybe that's what's giving us a warning and callie didn't really believe it was necessarily an economic red flag but more about anxiety about potential policies. what's your read on the 10-year and the yield that has been going up instead of going down? >> yeah, you know, so actually i'm going to tie two things together you just talked to calli. about. the 60/40 portfolio, 60 stocks, 40 bonds, why didn't it work and i believe that if you look back over the last 15 years, nine of those years, the federal reserve was holding the federal funds rate at zero. they were pulling the whole
2:37 pm
yield curve down. interest rates were below inflation, so of course, you don't want to own bonds in that environment. i think the fed killed the 60/40 model. now, we finally have interest rates up above inflation. they reflect the inflation worries that are out there, and i think that's the main reason interest rates are up. the feds not going to be cutting rates as fast this year as everybody thought just a few months ago and that means the 10-year is a little bit higher. i also worry about the equity market. the pe ratios are really high. i compare trump in a way to reagan. so carter got beat by reagan. we completely change policies, taxes, regulation spending, and it was a boom in the 1980s. trump is going to do the same thing, but reagan started with a pe ratio of 8 and trump
2:38 pm
starting with a pe ratio of 28. it is a lot harder for a repeat of the 80s today unless a.i. is some kind of magnificent productivity machine that it doesn't, it hasn't happened yet, so i'm optimistic about the future and technology but boy, stock markets are already priced for a lot of really good things to happen. charles: well, let's hope that, listen, american public voted for a more u.s. exceptionalism. let's hope we get it. happy new year, thank you very much my friend. by the way speaking of which folks we are getting closer to my town hall, unbreakable investor in the new guilded age. we'll talk a lot about the mckinley era. the most underrated president ever, president trump can do what he did we're talking decades of prosperity. it's on the 16th. come here, right? this is a historic moment. i really believe we'll unleash
2:39 pm
at least 30 years of economic prosperity. come let's talk about it get your ticket now joining me live in this new york city studio at foxbusiness.com/charles payne live. he really rocked and rolled in 2024 he's the voice of reason and also went on a ledge for a few times and he's got a couple of ideas that i think he's going on the ledge again. i can't wait to talk to him, he's next.
2:40 pm
(vo) weight loss is changing. for so long, i felt stuck on repeat. i tried, and tried again. lost weight, gained it back. but zepbound means change. zepbound is for adults with obesity, to help lose weight and keep it off. activating 2 naturally occurring hormone receptors in my body, zepbound works differently. it's changing what i believe is possible when it comes to weight loss. it's changing how much weight i lose. up to 48 pounds. and it's changing what happens. don't take if allergic to it, or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer or multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck. stop zepbound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain
2:41 pm
or a serious allergic reaction. severe side effects may include inflamed pancreas or gallbladder problems. tell your doctor if you are experiencing vision changes, taking a sulfonylurea or insulin, having suicidal thoughts, if you're nursing, pregnant, plan to be, or taking birth control pills. side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems. zepbound means change. and when it comes to weight loss... change is good. discover the weight loss you could be bound for. talk to your doctor about zepbound. (traffic noises) (♪) the road to opportunity. is often the road overlooked. (♪) at enterprise mobility, we guide companies to unique solutions, from our team of mobility experts. because we believe the more ways we all have to move forward.
2:42 pm
the further we'll all go. liberty mutual customized my car insurance so i saved hundreds. with the money i saved i thought i'd get a wax figure of myself. cool right? look at this craftmanship. i mean they even got my nostrils right. it's just nice to know that years after i'm gone this guy will be standing the test of ti... he's melting! oh jeez... nooo... oh gaa... only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty ♪ lock in let's go. rated e for everyone. [rock and roll music playing]
2:43 pm
xfinity. made for gaming. rewards members, get early access to an ea sports fc25 kit. visit xfinity.com/rewards.
2:44 pm
charles: so my next guest was bullish throughout all of last year, so, he wasn't surprised at that strong finish but you know, after the first back to back 20%-plus gains since 1998, the big question has been can the market repeat? joining me now kobeissi, and adam kobeissi, i want to start with you about just today's session. all of that enthusiasm coming from ces. we kind of sold off. some was economic data. some was just good old fashion sell on the news profit taking. what do you make of it? >> yeah, i think, look. i've been saying this for a while now. i think now that we're heading into 2025, you are going to
2:45 pm
see more volatility. the swings are getting a little bit larger, but you know, at the end of the day, the market is still being very much driven by a few names. right now the s&p 500 the top 10 stocks reflect 35% of the index. actually the top 10 stocks are now almost 800 times larger than bottom 75th percentile stock which basically means that you're never in history has the market been more concentrated than it is now. not even in the great depression and if those 10 stocks can continue to run, the market can continue to run and i think in 2024 the theme was that we were seeing a bunch of headwinds but the market kept rising. why was that? because those 10 stocks ran and in 2025, that could still be the case over the near-term. charles: so for the audience, right, the three growth sectors we're talking about that's being powered by the mag7 and mega cap are the three losers, consumer
2:46 pm
discretionary down 2%, info tech down 2% and there are five sectors in the green but such small inputs, right? so, you're looking i know you're bullish for the s&p 500 but could we also have a year if those names go sideways and everything else goes up on the surface it didn't look that great but you could have more winners than last year? >> yeah, yeah, and i think look. the rallying also needs to broaden a little bit here and i also don't think it's bad to have a period of choppy price action or technical consolidation after such a long run in such a sharp run higher and actually if you look at the historical data and in the first quarter, after a presidential election year, you typically see the s&p 500 gain about 1% on average. we're moving 1% a day in both directions right now. i think we do see more consolidation, more choppiness, but as i said i still think these large-cap names, you're talking about ces and nvidia yesterday. we're off the highs but it made a new all-time high
2:47 pm
this morning. nvidia is rapidly advancing their products and the rate of advancement continues to accelerate which is incredible to watch and that's going to spread throughout the industry because nvidia is the input for basically all these large-cap tech names and technology they're producing. charles: forget about the sell-off folks. what they have on the drawing board or putting out there is just, it's dominance. it's pure, pure dominance. let me switch gears while i've got the chance, because in treasuries, you like tlt, we'll put a chart up. its been an unmitigated disaster, but you like buying this weakness here, right? >> so yeah. we've been trying to get a little bit bullish here with tlt. this is the hardest trade to really go against right now, because its just been a straight line lower since the fed pivot began. it's down over 15% now since september which is an incredible, it's a huge move for bonds. i think at some point, with the 10 year starting near 5%
2:48 pm
something has to give here. the fed is still not really giving up on their fed pivot and a lot of these interest rate cuts have been priced out so i think there is a potential for , you know, a buy the news-type reaction in tlt if inflation data come in a little bit softer than expected or the labor market softens a little bit more. it's just right now, we really have an extremely hawkish situation pricing the bond markets. i'm looking to maybe catch a bounce. we'll see if it happens. charles: well, we get the jobs report friday so that could help clarify. hopefully it will help clarify stuff. adam see you soon, my man. >> thank you, charles. charles: folks in the last few weeks, we have seen just a complete reversal of the woke world and corporate america. last week jpmorgan joined all these wall street firms saying forget about the climate alliance and look what's happening on social media. the business world getting on board with president trump. i've got rebecca walser to tell us what it means to for your portfolio, next.
2:49 pm
from starting out... whatever you need you guys give me a call! ...to saving up... ...to income in retirement. you got this. vanguard fixed income funds can help advisors grow their clients' savings. vanguard. fifty years of high quality investments.
2:50 pm
2:51 pm
at harbor freight, we design and test our own tools and sell them directly to you. no middleman. just quality tools you can trust at prices you'll love. whatever you do, do it for less at harbor freight. ♪
2:52 pm
2:53 pm
when our country needed you, you answered the call. you took the oath. you served. and you sacrificed to defend our great country. visiting angels knows veterans. you are the heroes among us. and we are honored to serve you. ♪ visiting angels america's choice in home care ♪ advil liqui-gels are faster and stronger than tylenol rapid release gels. ♪ also from advil, advil targeted relief, the only topical with 4 powerful pain fighting ingredients that start working on contact and lasts up to 8 hours.
2:54 pm
charles: all right, today you saw president-elect trump holding a press conference to announce a $20 the billion investment in data centers by a group out of dubai. of course, he took on a series of questions that covered everything, right, from domestic to international issues. and as you should usual, he was pretty straightforward and firm really in his replies with these, with the reporters. and for me, i've got to tell you with, i think that's the underlying thread, right? his determination to extend america's position in the world, a sort of pax americana, if you will. the promise of securing a second american century. and and i've got to say, since the day after the election, trump has been moving at warp speed if on all fronts to get the results that he wants. he's also moved the needle around the world, and here at home a lot of folks are climbing on bandwagon.
2:55 pm
last week we saw wall street bury the banking awe alliance. you don't know how dangerous this thing was. they would strongarm businesses into unreasonable and very expensive energy plans. small businesses couldn't get any banking. it would have been a disaster just as the green movement has been an unmitigated disaster in europe, particularly for germany. american colleges, big businesses, they're now starting to ditch dei programs. in fact, today the latest being mcdonald's. and maybe, maybe, the biggest about face from facebook, mark sulker berg who announced they're ending their fact-checking system saying the election are was a, quote, cultural tipping point. joining me now is walter -- walser wealth management's rebecca walser. the establishment pushed back with against trump almost every time they could, everyone piled against him. this time folks are getting in line. why do you think -- what's the difference? >> sam altman said last month
2:56 pm
that trump will lead us into the if age of a.i., and so they want him to be successful because america needs to lead that age. charles: but everyone's throwing in the towel. [laughter] no one is fighting back. do you think they also know that the american people are firmly behind him. >> oh, yeah. obviously, we've had a sea change, right? we were really going down the progressive policies for the last, i'd say, eight years. and all of a sudden, oops, stop, those people went too far, we're going to go back. this is this is really is motivated, charles, by the understood the of deregulation and support from the add administration that believes in a.i. charles: talking about a.i., trump announcing the $20 billion keel. by the way, it's from private money. we are in a serious race with china, and there used to be the saying that demographics are destiny? i think right now tech the logical supremacy is destiny. and although we've got a big lead many in data centers, folks, it's a lot tighter in other areas. for instance, china, check this
2:57 pm
out. this is the lead china has on a.i. patents. they are so far ahead of us, this is the worrisome. look at this, that red line of all the patents in 2021, those went to china. and automation. you would think a country like china wouldn't want robots. they're so far ahead of us on robot automation. again, that's china right there. you wrote in your latest note ability creative disruption and the transition here. how important is it that we really win this war. >> well, it is very important that america stays dominant and, certainly, china is clearly a threat, and they're ahead of us on this frontier. i will say we are getting to the to borderless situation, charles. in other words, companies themselves that deliver a.i. and that deliver actual activities that will replace the traditional ways of doing everything, and when i say everything, i literally mean if everything, those companies are actually going to be the multi-national, billion dollar corporations that really kind of start to frame the way we live. and that will supersede
2:58 pm
boundaries. so i do think we are for the first time -- charles: but we wan them in america. >> yeah, we want them in america. but this new frontier is being digital, it is going to remove geographical woundilies. it is not to going -- boundariesment it is not going to be country versus country -- charles: and these are trillion dollar companies. >> absolutely. charles: so the opportunities then, obviously, if these are trillion dollar opportunities, folks watching the show have an opportunity to get involved as well. >> yeah. charles: you definitely want to be in artifial intelligence, automation, crypto, these are areas that people have to have exposure too. >> we're still a little cautious through the the inauguration to see that all goes well with crazy world. but with the a.i., the robot you cans, the the quantum computing space, these are all must have. nothing's low cost now, charles, everything's overheated, but still the beginning foundation of this front e tier. buy it now, hold it long. even if it's not performing,
2:59 pm
hold long. know this is going if to be a memory play. you're going to have super -- long-term play. the the fact is that this is a new frontier. it's going to be for the long play. charles: don't worry too much about the volatility aspect of it. >> well, for these positions. not for the overall portfolio. you have to, obviously -- charles: sure, sure. >> but, yes, if you can hold them long and not worry about the volatility, that would be best. charles: you like mod eties. i'm going to put up a commodities chart was we don't talk about them a lot. >> i know. charles: commodities folks have made a huge run in the last seven months, near all-time highs. you think this is also something if people should have exposure. >> gold outperformed the nasdaq and the s&p last year, so let's just understand that we are in a currency global transition, and so commodities will be home. talk about uranium, you know, when you look at what a.i., quantum compute being requires from an energy space, new energy sources have to come forward.
3:00 pm
so there's definitely money to be made in commodities. charles: you manage money for a lot of people. i've got a minute to go. what's the anxiety? is there one thing people are concerned about? if we know the animal spirits are out there, but is there one hinge they say but? >> i think they're concerned a.i. steams great, but where is it in my individual life many they don't see that yet. it hasn't been monetized -- carls charles but isn't that that ironic? some people say i don't see it, and others say we're going the lose millions of jobs because of it. >> we are. this is the new frontier. this is going to be the largest disruption of how everything is done from a human capital perspective in our lifetime. so we are right to prepare for human capital to retract and for artificial intelligence, robotics to come forward. charles: but we're going to make a lot of money. >> yes! a lot of money. take your time, be patient. charles: someone with a front row seat today is liz claman. liz, over to you. [laughter] liz: charles, thank you so much.

0 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on