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tv   Barrons Roundtable  FOX Business  January 26, 2025 10:30am-11:00am EST

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can catch me on "mornings with maria" 6 - 9:00 a.m. eastern weekdays on fox business. i hope you will join me. i will see you on the fox news channel on sunday morning at 10:00 a.m. eastern for "sunday morning futures" i have exclusive interviews with oversight committee chairman james comer, texas governor greg abbott, florida caucus men brian donald and treasury secretary steven mnuchin join me on fox news on sunday morning. that will do it for us on fox business. thank you so much for joining us have a g and i will see you next time. >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etf's. jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the weekend.
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i am jack otter big tech in the spotlight top ceos front center of the inauguration they deliver for president trump i can they deliver for wall street, we will take a deeper look. we begin with the expert panel and three things investors are to be thinking about right now on the "barron's roundtable" my colleagues ben levisohn, elizabeth o'brien and andrew bary. great week for the s&p 500 and the dow did better going out more than 2%, broadening in the market we sell a little bit on friday but hit an all-time record in the middle of the trading day, what is going on. >> it's amazing i went away for a week and i left in the market was falling apart and everybody was worried and they come back everything is hunky-dory and it looks that way with a solid week the dow was the one that led to higher we had a real breath in the market not just the magnificent seven going up we had software stocks were then double apple and the rest of the stocks that this week. you are seeing a market where people are buying stocks that
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they like in the market is going. >> washington has been dominating the news and what might be driving stocks is good old-fashioned earnings. >> i look at what's coming out of earnings season right now, it is fantastic we had banks starting us off by the previous week they did very well and they went up with things like netflix that came out with a superb number raising prices that stinks for us to use with the stock is going up and of earnings keep coming like that it's good to be a great earnings season. one of the things that i saw their beating by 8.7% which is much larger than normal in the stocks are beat on revenue and earnings in the going up 3%, that's probably more than two or three times than what they normally do. >> the stocks almost always be analyst estimates, they draw the line. as you said their beating by more than usual and a higher percentage of stocks are beating. >> i also wouldn't minimize the impact of washington in the inauguration the highlighted the u.s. will be a very good place to do business over the next
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four years also a potential for deregulation which may be underestimated piper sealer came out this weekend and say they cut gdp by six percentage points in the last four years and regulation. jack: let's talk about the fed the federal reserve printing next week was supposed to be an affair they will stand pat and trump one as soon call and demanded that the fed lower rates, how is that going to work out. >> triple have to get used to disappointment, the fed is looking at the data in the data says don't do anything we do not know what inflation is doing it may be heading lower and sitting where it is right now or it could go up but we don't know the right thing to do for powell to hold steady and that's what is going to do. jack: andrew we sell the tech executives on the dais of the inauguration, three are back in the spotlight next week when the report earnings. >> tech is driving the market with s&p 500 and aztec goes so does the market and investors
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will be particularly interested in apples earnings come out this coming week and 10% and investments are concerned about a number of things in the weakness in the sales in china as well as logging efforts in artificial intelligence and a.i. incorporating and mark zuckerberg with critical the innovation under the tim cook air. jack: speaking of zuckerberg wonderful three years, less than a year ago trump that he would yell them for life, fact checking and a few other changes his back and favor in the stock is doing well. >> the stock is doing great and meta made one of the biggest bets on a.i. in the tech sector, zuckerberg came in on friday and it was 65 billion this year equal to the net income and the facebook reports are meta reports they're going to want to know about the efforts and a.i. and what the payout is going to be. jack: let's go to the first
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broke, elon musk that stock gained $50 billion in market cap since the election. >> it's been a lot more than that. jack: 500 billion, silly me. >> is up over 50% people want to see if tesla can keep the momentum going and the new model low-end car, how is that coming out and also on a.i. in the autonomous driving which is been the big driver for tesla stock. jack: let's go to a more prosaic sector good old retail, barron's choice about her turnaround story. >> victoria's secret which like nike has a new ceo to right the ship, the case of nike investors had it lost its cool but things were more serious at victoria's secret several years ago which made serious allegations of sexual misconduct at the top, the new ceo is a woman the stock is up about 60% over the past year. you can say the turnaround is well underway but it is trading more cheaply than the broader market.
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jack: is a cultural shift that victoria's secret was on the wrong side and things might be changing lauren sanchez for lingerie. >> and all these turnaround a part of me that says i want to buy the big guys that are doing it right and one of them is walmart work on big into tech and bringing in all shoppers from all walks of life and it's doing really great the stock is strong i had to look at that instead. >> walmart is not a cheap stock is trading four times earnings and the best talk in the dow i would be a little bit cautious at these levels given a lot of good news. it's baked into walmart stocks. jack: give us two smaller names, were almost out of time. >> what is tort holdings that cells plus sizes online the other one is to grow. jack: coming up camry investments met favor is here why china might be a good place to invest. how savvy investors can use a tax trick to defer taxes and maximize
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♪ strategy that my next guest says most investors know nothing about. it is at 351 conversion and can save you serious money. investment management cio and cofounder med favor, great to see you again. before we talk markets, you are in los angeles. are you and your family totally safe from the fire. >> we are good. we definitely had friends impacted, pretty crazy time that we are safe but smoky. jack: that is good to hear, we have a lot to get through today, i want to start with markets and then we'll talk about how your helping investors save on taxes read stocks have been on a roll for three years, 15 years really
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and they're not pretty expensive, the headlines are focused on how trump's policies might affect the market but what are you looking at? >> stocks have been romping and stomping one of the best periods in history, does that feel fat and happy, i don't know but it's a romping stomping bowl, 15% per year since the bottom in 2009. that is a ten bagger you may ten times your money just awesome. but as we know in markets, this is highly technical but the good times lead often to the bad times and vice versa. the seeds of the next bear market have already probably been planted it is a bit of a yellow flashing light in the evaluations are near peak valuations not like they were in 2009. on average we tell people this bull had most of its run, doesn't mean you can't go higher but the value stocks look much better in foreign stocks of underperforming emerging markets have underperformed in the value company is there with high quality look much better than
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buying the very big market cap weighted expensive stocks in the u.s. jack: you said that maybe people should look at china, that market has gone nowhere for a long time, maybe that is why. >> here's a funny thing if you are u.s. stock investor in you john vogel the unguarded indexer portfolio, now you put two thirds, almost 70% in u.s. stocks, that is the starting point, that is ten times more than any other country in the world. most people don't have foreign exposure, particularly in the u.s. and they don't have emerging markets. even if you do allocate to china which is cheap we like to look at markets when you say that gone nowhere for 30 years i like the sound of that. there is no question that china is cheap and much of the rest of the world certainly relative to the u.s., deserves a place and it doesn't mean you have to go all in on china for an emerging but certainly a great diversified to the u.s. >> real quick before we get to taxes, your bond portfolio, what are you doing there? >> this is one of the most non- consensus views. i think a lot of people out there say u.s. stocks are
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expensive, look elsewhere but the fixed income land, the same is true, you have t-bill for and a quarter the risk-free rate but the rest of the bond market does not yield much more. the historical relationship between riskier bond like corporate bond and junk bonds like the 30 year u.s. bond, despite the fact that they are down a ton, the 30 year bond is down 40%, think of stocks are down 40%, people would lose their mind they don't have enough margin of safety and people say things like corporate spreads are some of the lowest in history, junk bonds are the lowest in history but they keep buying them. to me a lot of the bond market should already be yielding six, seven, eight, nine, 10% and most of them are down around five so is potentially a lot more pain in the riskier bonds in the ty od does this set some t-bills and chill until you own the riskier ones. >> let's talk taxes to allow
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investors to diversify out of stock positions without paying taxes on the gains, that is effective for many investors with big gains in stocks and should diversify but they don't want to take the tax hit, how does this work? >> how many times have you heard somebody say i own the stock could be ibm, walmart, apple, mcdonald's more recently nvidia and they say but i cannot sell it because of taxman will kill me. real estate investors have a solution for this forever, the 1031 exchange, sell one building, diversify into another one, that is a tax-free transaction, you're not watching the game you're delaying paying taxes. it turns out there's a tax code called the 351 that's been around for 100 years, now the modern etf allows you to see one of our funds and say i have highly appreciated portfolio i don't want to anymore, i would like to add some other things you reach out to us, you see the etf launch, there is rules around at the top position can be about 25%, you cannot give me
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all nvidia, you getting etf in return and we all know etf's are low cost and much more tax efficient like mutual funds and hedge funds so you end up with a better vehicle that is diversified in many investors that is a much safer place to be than having most of your net worth in a single stock. jack: we gotta leave it there, people can look that up on the internet and there is an etf picker ta ask but i know you're rolling out more of them over time. thank you very much for coming on the show. >> great to be here. jack: inflation above target, bond yields are rising and markets are closely watching the flurry of policy proposals from the white house. the panel has investment playbook for
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jack: the trump news cycle has returned. reporters and editors are busy and the tweet us are tweeting and gain out how stocks will respond to the next move. with all the proposals were laid around our panelist helping investors separate the signal from the noise that barron's cover story this week. in this week's issue, you explain that we might as well just get used to volatility. >> during the first trump administration we saw the first time that he tweeted about tariffs and the market dropped. we got used to the overtime and the market kept going up. were getting upside and downside surprises, this week we were supposed to get tariffs after immediately and we did not get tariffs in the market went up on tuesday we had an announcement which was exciting and help tech stocks trump one out and talked about needing lower oil prices in the oil market dropped but this is the stuff that is going to be happening and we are going to be having to deal with the everyday but i think in the
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meantime, the direction of the market overall continues to be higher. jack: i guess it should not be a surprise in the environment old is looking shiny. >> gold is a great diversify her and uncertain times, were looking at a time when a lot of things that we counted on to the political and the geopolitical order were very stable, now it's a little bit more unsettled and we saw this with gold we got a boost with the biden administration put a freeze on the russian dollar assets for the central bank, that made central banks realize if we had an adversarial relationship with the u.s. we might whatever money and other things besides dollars so they put into gold and other people looking to gold as stability. then you look at the u.s. deficit growing and it provides a boost for growth under goal. i look at is doing well and approaching all-time highs and i think it goes higher. >> you like financials and benefit from deregulation and i guess the tariff resist as well. >> they are based in the u.s. in one of the most highly regulated sectors in the u.s.
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as regulation they have been highly regulated since the financial crisis and if the regulation pulls back, it looks like it will, they should do well with smaller banks the riskier ones because they feel the pinch of the regulation more than anyone else. jack: andrew, you like the energy market, been said not so much, what is going on there. >> energy with the market so far this year but it lacked last year end i think energy could be a good spot for this year, the stocks have been doing the best of the natural gas stocks because there's been beneficiaries of what is likely to be a lot of the data centers that need to be powered and natural gas and do we not. you have stocks like eq to doing very well, pipeline companies that will transport like billions and kinder morgan have also done well. i might look at the biggest oil company which is axon which is a laggard this year and trading around 100 right now the yield is about you half percent. >> don't forget crypto as well day before trump took office he
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launched a meme coin and his own name and melania followed suit a couple days later, the crypto suit is a slap in the face because they were looking forward to greater legitimacy under trump instead of the mainstream and bracer seem trump enriching himself with the novelty meme with conflict of interest, even though the wall street journal editorial pages reaches conservative remarkably poor judgment. jack: we should warn these are incredibly volatile and a lot of the games are on paper, it's not real. but on paper entities controlled by trump were up $52 billion on this. that has to be the greatest self enrichment and history. it's pretty extraordinary. for all the optimism in being coins and the stock market, the bond market has been in a funk. often in wall street, people say the bond investors are the smart ones, not the stock cowboys, our bond investors worried about inflation a deficit, what is going on there.
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>> that's the thing with the bond markets hard to gauge what people are afraid of. everyone has their opinion on it and we get people telling you it's about inflation and we have the cpi number a couple weeks ago in the market, that does not seem to be the real issue. then people are talking about the deficit but that's been an issue for a long time. i look at economic growth, much stronger than expected when you have higher growth you need higher bond yield is very simple. >> bonds are pretty reasonable hedge, close to 5% right now 300 year yields are run 6%, bonds could do well. jack: although they say stick to the short end. would you like to put cash. >> cash is attractive, money market funds, the yield of north of 4% and bond is volatile there supposed to be boring but they have been volatile so it's not a bad place to hang out. jack: thank you. next up then, andrew and elizabeth will dive into the top stock picks from barron's annual roundtable. stay right [sofi mnemonic]
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jack: back in 1968 barron's can be the first roundtable of stock pickers and it became an annual tradition. barron's is publishing the third installment of the 2025 roundtable, what caught your eye? >> i want to say this is my favorite time of the year at barron's we end get together and they talk about the market in stocks and people who really care about the stuff it is great, they disagree and have different ways of looking at the market. it is fantastic. two pigs stood out one from bill kreis he really likes also that, this is a stock that al root picked last year, it is one that looks more and more interesting. it is cheap compared to other
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magnificent seven but the other bed has poured money into for years, looks like they may pay off including weymouth the autonomous driving company. if that pays off it's really great has to navigate the government issues. we will see what happens there. the second pick from todd olson he lacks unshed likes dear, it's been going sideways. and it's really a problem with the farm commodities, agricultural commodities have not been doing well. dear has neither but at the same time the company has been building out the a.i. tools to help farmers make more in taking market share, as soon as agricultural commodity prices go up the deer stock should to. >> is from epic partners most people are familiar because it's institutional investor. andrew what were you looking at? >> i was looking at pics from merrill witmer she's from the borough and reported brookshire hathaway and warren buffett thinks highly of her, whatever this dollar tree which is one of the dollar stores that is out-of-favor, she thinks it may
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bottom and has two businesses, dollar tree and family dollar, family dollar has been weaker she thinks they might sell that an event happens it could be a callous for 13 times earnings down 50%, she likes enterprise products which is a pipeline company, it's not been as strong as the other pipeline companies because it transport oil and oil products rather than natural gas which is what investors like to focus on but a 6% dividend yield and very well-managed. >> we found merrill witmer before oriented. you are looking at uber. >> is another bill priest, a lot of the biggest rideshare companies in the world outside of china the stock is been held back on concerns of wave driving the taxes eating up market share with their overblown and new or has made partnerships with the thomas driving companies, receiving growth in bookings in the food delivery and the rideshare in the high teens and low 20s it's free cash flow
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with a price target of $100 over the next three years versus today 69. jack: the bulls on uber say they were only on the early in the beginning of the highway on this thing as americans slowly give up their love affair with the car and realize ridesharing is an option so instead of three cards maybe you have to and that goes down to one and as the process works out over long-term that could be interesting for uber maria: good sunday morning, everyone. welcome to "sunday morning futures." thanks so much for joining us this morning, i'm maria bartiromo. the trump effect takes hold across the world with fresh optimism soaring in investing in america. >> every year you come to davos and you ask, w

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