america are expected to spend $27.5 billion on the special ones. more than half of all shoppers planning to give candy wildflowers and greeting cards tied for second, 35% say they will take about one out for an evening and 22% plan on purchasing jewelry, between the gift categories americans are projected to layout $18.7 billion. don't forget to give love to maria on the fox news channel at 10:00 a.m. eastern live for "sunday morning futures" she has exclusive interviews with secretary of defense pete had chef and incoming u.s. abbasid or to israel mike huckabee and former u.s. ambassador to the united kingdom and jets owner woody johnson. that will do thank you so much for joining and have a great weekend. >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etf.

>> welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead i am jack otter, the department of government efficiency and shaking up washington as elon musk tries to trick the federal government meanwhile bonds wobble but stocks are holding study amidst the chaos on the hill we begin with the expert panel and three things investors are to be thinking about right now on the "barron's roundtable" ben levisohn, meghan n and al root. the market was flat on the week it went down a little bit on friday what were traders focus on. >> it's interesting this is two weeks in a row the market holding its own and then a friday selloff and on friday this week it was just about two things one was inflation expectation embedded in the university of consumer sentiment all of a sudden everybody is worried about inflation and the

other tariffs are back we might get more tariff news this coming week in the market really doesn't like tariffs so you put those together and everything fell your week earnings from alphabet and amazon so the magnificent seven were not in the greatest shape and you put that together in a market finished on a little bit. >> the x-uppercase-letter. you did not say the words payroll report that was a nonissue this friday. >> that must've been oversight and didn't move the market the numbers came in weaker than expected in the employment rate was down and we have revision upward to november and december. >> we had annual benchmark that was less steep and in august we were expecting a million jobs to come out in the payroll expectation it didn't happen which was good news and we had wage growth and we've been seen that pop it was almost a half a percentage of appointment over

month that could be big issues for the vatican create complications. >> that's all about inflation and next week is cpi report and consumer inflation expectation and expectation can turn into reality. >> this will be the january number before the tariff things were talked about. we're going to see what's going on in terms of inflation, the headline number is constant at 2.9% the cord number and inflation is supposed to drop to 3.1 to 3.2 those numbers do what they're supposed to do the market will probably be okay but any surprises will add to the inflation worries. >> back to you let's talk about the new darling of the a.i. trade. >> i feel like most people don't know about pollen tear which is what were talking about. one of those things it's not a household name it might be not liking nvidia and things like that which is really exciting they had a great week over 35% very impressive angry earnings.

this is one of the things with an a.i. play during a.i. software unlike nvidia which are hardware and i think this is where the story is going when it comes to a.i. and it'll be interesting. pollen tear has a components to take advantage of they were a government contractor company but now they're moving into the commercial space their clients are people that are healthcare, inflation insurance and those have big dreams of data this is something that can streamline and make it faster and easier. >> those gray earnings the market is paying 217 times those gray earnings the stock has gone parabolic cannot keep up you think it's a by. >> my colleague adam levin says the growth is real the profitability is real but the valuation is a little bit tricky

and that something extremely expensive right now. >> i think is beyond extremely expensive this is the most expensive stock in the s&p 500 it's almost twice as expensive as tesla is not a cheap stock when you get to the levels you have to be careful. >> let's go to analog out all honeywell of the new spinoffs. >> honeywell earnings on thursday and more important they unveiled the dramatic plan to break into three companies, aerospace, automation and materials there trying to catch ge's shine investors have basically doubled their money if they held all of ge stocks the healthcare aerospace and power company ge on a weighted basis is trading at 40 times 25 25 estimates. before ge was a market multiple company it's make it stand up now you honeywell trying to

break up auto parts company active trying to break up, dupont's going to spit up into two companies, activists trying to get boeing to break up. it really is like breakup bonanza and get the thing to remember ge companies are performing very well the growing earnings double digits and expanding margins, you have to business execution honeywell stock went down 6% because the guidance was terrible. >> fresh tariffs with the global trade system as trump announces he'll launch reciprocal tariffs on the unnamed countries. apollo chief economist is here to break down potential impa ♪ empower ♪ hey, i got her a little something. a little something, dad? oh, umm. hi. walt rolled his 401k accounts into an empower ira and it's grown nicely. so i say, let a gramps be a gramps. okay, just promise me it doesn't make a lot of noise.

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reciprocal levies coming next week at 10% charge on chinese imports as a ready taken effect. deals were made with canada and mexico to put intemperate hold on new tariffs until march. my guest has been crunching the numbers into economic and inflationary impact joining apollo chief economist torsten. thank you for coming by and checking out the new. we don't know what tariffs will and will be put into effect but you tricked information that you had which was at the attorney representing canada and mexico 10% on china and you ran those through your spreadsheet, what did you find. >> several institutions that are quantified the impact if you put 25% tariffs on canada and mexico and 10% on china and what they find the gdp growth is modestly low by 0.4 and we will see over sometime these effects will begin to show up as lower gdp because when the price of something goes up people tend to buy less of it.

jack: those numbers do not include the effect of retaliatory tariffs to other countries might put on us i really don't know the number so you can put them on your spreadsheet but you and economist give us a sense of what they could mean. >> it depends on the magnitude of the numbers but it's clear if we get retaliation in the u.s. retaliate again and we get a true trade war then the implications might be bigger but we don't know at this point what exactly that would look like. >> you said an uncertainty factor, you are ready to chart the uncertainty of policy. >> also academics will quantified of uncertainty specifically of trade policy and what they find trade policy uncertainty is today at levels that are quite elevated even to where we were in 2017 and 18 that uncertainty might begin to have implications for business spending decisions so overall

uncertainty isn't something that it means for business planning and business planning for negatively impacted. >> there's so much going on in washington there's no way we can cover in one show putting altogether what do you think what policies will have the biggest impact what will the impact be. >> the focus on financial markets has been and should be on the three things really matter for the academy. on the tariffs and what might be coming on tax cuts tariffs lifts inflation if you have restrictions on immigration interpretation there is 11 million unauthorized immigrants and roughly half of them 6 million have a job and in services. a negative impact on the sectors that could also mean higher inflation a particular wage inflation.

finally if you begin to see lower corporate taxes with domestic manufacturers it also means modest boost inflation, the conclusion is we could see inflation began to move a bit higher from already high level currently at 2.9% that might raise risks in particular for the fed. >> that the economics, give us what the market should be thinking as an investor any portfolio adjustments because of all of this. >> even we have a very strong academy gdp growth for the last two years has been remarkably resilient and gdp around 3% for the last several quarters and we have inflation at 3% and if we add these policies on top of that with more tariffs coming some restrictions on immigration of potentially lower taxes it runs the risk that inflation could be a bit higher over the coming quarters and therefore the answer to your question that could imply the interest rates are likely going to say higher for longer and more difficult

for the federal reserve to cut interest rates simply because academy is already strong and on top of that we might have upward moving inflation. jack: given that you're not crazy about small caps that have a lot of debt at fairly high rates you looking for the goldilocks. >> the challenge with small-cap 40% have negative earnings which of these are negative earnings and interest rates are high more challenging to pay the debt services in the mag seven the challenge they make up 40% of the s&p 500 so buying them is in contrast to page one of your finance should be diversified that's why value companies midcap the have earnings and therefore able to pay the debt servicing and not too expensive it seems to be the right place to be. >> we have to leave it there i want to show your chart with the deficit and the national debt is

practically going parabolic and not scary stay at the short end of the curve in fixed income. >> the challenge only a short-term interest rate going to be high because academy is strong but what this shows you debt to gdp is about to go up this is forecast from the budget office today jet debt is going up to two 100% short-term interest rate is high because economy is strong and long-term will remain high because academy is strong and on top of that we also still have physical challenges that likely also will put up long-term interest-rate. >> thank you so much for coming by, enjoy the super bowl . three weeks into trump's presidency and elon musk

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chaos in the nation's capital at federal contracts, the usaid the department of education to medicare medicaid and trump's plan to cut spending and downsize bureaucracy. the stock market seems unfazed holding steady since trump took office but bond investors are nervous the barron's cover story the speaker wanted by barron's ideas editor matt peterson who joined the panel. the covers is that all doge bringing a wrecking ball to the federal bureaucracy you must overview. we got a couple weeks from elon musk having a deficit cutting to taking a scalpel to individual government agencies this is changed in real time elon musk was talking and said he started looking at the u.s. agency for international development and he thought it might've been an apple with a worm in it and he found a bowl of warm so you have

to throw it out and he's doing across the whole government. >> were hearing about his employees getting access to the treasury payment system what is the and up until now. >> this was a quiet part of the federal governmental recently is the way the federal government gets its checks to wherever they need to go the payment processing part of the government it was run by civil servants, now elon musk has put a couple people, one of his folks in charge of this there is a court fight going on that is restricting the access and working have to see how that turns out. >> walk me through this elon musk is not an elected official and doge is a new agency it feels like if i'm remembering my rockface correctly there are three government branches of government and everyone has checks and balances, what is going on here. >> schoolhouse rock is going to need update for silicon valley. elon musk brought some of the

move fast and break things mentality to the federal government and again, it's trawling all sorts of it until legal challenges a number of lawsuits federal unions have filed suit against them eventually this is probably going to go to the supreme court. >> looking at all of this in the chaos in washington and tariffs in the market is holding up okay, why do you think that is. >> the stocks have not been bothered by the doge stuff yet. although we saw a little bit of market interest in the tariffs, stocks fell a little bit on that. the bigger thing with trump moving the market is happening in fixed income where we seen long-term treasury yields rising since the late summer some of that has to do with the debt in the government's tax plans, he has got to figure out what to do with four and a half trillion dollars in tax cuts that expire at the end of the year and scott bessent the treasury secretary said this week they may simply

not pay for that. that will probably put upward pressure on the bond yields. >> the market would like that were tax rates and more income to "the bottom line". it doesn't like higher bond yields there is some talk about tariffs being an offset to the lost revenue from tax cuts, what does the math say about that. >> the map is not great tariffs may raise to trillion another's over ten years that's a ballpark estimate that we've seen but that's big tariffs on almost everything that is entering through the united states and the big economic destruction and will lower the amount tax revenue that the government collects as well. on its own that's not nearly enough. >> you see fears about inflation showing up in the bond market, the treasury inflation protected securities and those risen to the highest level since 2023 and the rise in prices might be coming back. we've been talking about all of this we talked about elon musk but we haven't talked yet what

does this mean for the tesla stock. >> with anything like this i think it's important for risk and reward. doge certainly matters. tesla stock was that about 10% this week it was definitely partly doge it was down 15% since the inauguration but you need to put in the bucket that you have to watch everything you watch issues of distraction with elon musk and now his political coming and going good that impact tesla sales and you have to watch interest-rate. something else to watch. then the reward the elon musk trump bromance has benefited tesla is up 45% since the election. the $350 billion in market value wall street sees the trump administration facilitating the robo taxing business which is a big benefit to tesla like everything else you have to take the good with the bad and put everything in context. >> real quick math before we go

this guy is enormously powerful, have we ever seen a businessperson with the kind of power that elon musk has in the white house. >> after go back to the early 1900s to find somebody like andrew mellon or j.p. morgan but even those folks really don't have a nearly a much influence as elon musk. >> is a big weekend for guacamole one restaurant changes hedging the avocado but can't control cilantro what's more expensive than white. in (♪) i don't play for money. before my mom passed, she told me to play big— play for something bigger than myself. now, my ambition is to play so i can help and inspire others. that's why i joined sofi. they help people save, spend, earn, borrow, and invest toward financial independence. so they can realize their ambitions. no matter what they're playing for. sofi. get your money right.

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jack: it is super bowl weekend we should let viewers know our choice of red is not a call for the chiefs we will be neutral on that but while we're talking

super bowl chipotle is hedging avocado but. >> they were talking in the earnings saying only half of the avocados come from mexico so they don't need to be that concerned about tariffs. i don't know how true i believe the statement to be most restaurants and consumers should be very concerned about any tariffs on mexico particularly when it comes to food prices. really about a quarter of all u.s. imports come from mexico and a lot of the veggies, fruits and nuts are directly from mexico. when we talk about guacamole, cilantro might come from california but we cannot produce enough, where does that come from mexico, limes, mexico certainly onions, jalapenos, and optics and to basically come from mexico this will be an issue with one thing that is not the only issue when we come to food prices right now.

>> you did a lot of research it's fascinating how many inputs there are is much more complicated than people think. >> is a situation that something that happens two years ago like the drought in the western part of the country that decimated our cattle stock that is still affecting beef prices and a year out we have the natural disasters coming to that affect citrus, pork, you name it and we've been dealing with the avian flu recently and that is egg prices, poultry even things like dairy affected by this there is good news, we had recent data that looked at all the common super bowl snacks and prices are down a little bit this year from last year so maybe getting a break on our favorite snacks. >> thank you for ending on good news, musk actionable ideas. >> nothing but respect but my seven layer dip a five layer dip because of cost i don't necessarily agree with that. my idea gfl environmental, literal garbage company one of the largest waste haulers in north america canada and the

u.s. they are selling the business they will take that money, pay down debt and buy back stock this is a $46 stock can be in the mid 50s with growth ahead. >> i'm looking at netflix, the stockpot after earnings a few weeks ago, it's been trading sideways sends them and i like the things of the sideway pattern and pops and you go sideways again it's assigned and you'll go up somewhere if you look into netflix now might be a decent time. >> i have up interesting business model the studio have transparent you know what the box office sales are, they don't tell you how many people are streaming no leverage, thank you, great ideas as always. that is all for us we will see you next week on "barron's roundtable". this is not just an ordinary issue in us-china relations. you never heard about the money.