savings and they're going down. feels like we're trying to keep up with the kardashians at expense ovsavings. how much longer can we keep that going. >> very strong holiday season and first, second, third quarter and earnings growth and picking up into the fourth quarter and given inflation is still sticky and yes -- charles: 30 seconds on this. i got to ask you about shake shack because i subscribe and down like 20%. >> yards in aggie, a lot of shoppers went out to the mall, they wanted to save a buck while eating and shake shack is the main beneficiary of that and shopping at wal-mart. charles: going for them. >> yep, for experiences. charles: all right, over to liz.

liz: charles, thank you. president trump reciprocal tariffs tomorrow on all countries imposing duties on u.s. goods. looking at nasdaq and one in the green up 31 points and bulls held back all the major this is morning after fresh consumer inflation data showed prices jumped to two year highs last month. after premarket release and dow gapped down 489 points at opening bell and falling to 44,000, 104. look at it now. it's off the floor. 44,389 right now but still down about 205 points. now, s&p closed yesterday at 6,068, buckled 65 points this morning at open and down 11 at 6,056. nasdaq and russell suffered kind of the biggest percentage bruises and investors slammed brakes on the nasdaq and down

228 and up 34 at the moment and nice comeback and the russell is down about 17 points at the moment and the low of the session for the russell was a loss of 35. this red hot inflation report led by a stunning americans cracking under pressures and what must the guy buying 8 million eggs a year for his business thinking? the cake boss is about to join the claman countdown live and how he's cooking up solutions dealing with the skyrocketing prices. you know what, the two men behind the two big market control switches are front and center at this hour. and president trump saying interest rates are lower and going hand-in-hand and jay powell testifying on capitol hill today and in front of house seasonal services committee and much more on powell's day on

capitol hill, interest rates and inflation and how to beat it with former fed vice chair and nec director lyle brainard and first on fox business coming up. don't miss tariff sensitive stocks include ago lot of big u.s. companies ones importing from overseas, apple, nvidia, especially tay lauder, carrier global and apple higher at 1.6% and others are lagging and what about the companies that actually manufacture stated side? even with the new 25% tariffs the president slapped on all foreign steel and aluminum imports this week, those stocks century aluminum, kaiser aluminum, cleveland cliffs, new port steel they're all moving to the downside after a day or two of moves to the upside. wall street with the one two punch of trade policy shifts and could accelerate inflation further, how do you ride the

volatility in the fort polio i have global strategist and trader scott redler. going to the raider minute by minute, tick by tick action and making of the price action, wha? >> starting to build confidence and we came in light on positions and doing that with binary like cpi and markets are focused on inflation and getting down 60 handles and wrote down all levels and seeing if they'd hold within 30 minutes, markets started lifting and it was very impressive action and key names starting lif lifting and am went green early and tesla under pressure for two weeks went green and led the market higher and that gave a bit of a green light to put risk back on in specific names especially meta at an all time high. liz: 15th in a row if it closed

even a ten penny higher. you have s&p target of 7,000 by year end. >> that's correct. i would remind it's 10.5 months away and still time for it. liz: sticking with that and knowing there's headline ricks? >> absolutely. i think if you think about the equity market very, very simply, there's positioning and new money and buy backs and new money coming in and inflows robust in all asset classes and has to do with what happened around the pandemic et cetera, et cetera. i would argue there's another year for pretty strong inflows and the buy backs, you know, continue basically with earnings and we're in the midst of q4 earnings and earnings look pretty good. they're at three year high in terms of growth, 13%. despite enormous drag for

energy. on the cyclical side and going for the going to the consumer and material sector and that's the three that we are always like right now. lauren: where are you overweight, scott? >> i do different trades every single week and munro at a timing and i went back into apple today for the first time in a while and relative strength came this morning. i like the news about potential rooibos icks and their new impact on hearing humanoids potential and generating a ton of money and best company in the world to me and they're starting to innovate and news with baba and china and going over new ai nickertives i think will -- initiinitiinitiatives is more ad apple was part of the new attention list. lauren: i remember you going heavy on meta. 15 jumps in a row to record highs. i -- this is unbelievable

stretch. so tree don't go to the sky and felt if it pulls back, what happens? is that a buying opportunity? >> every time meta hits eighth day, traders have been buying and the gains have happened and we're looking for other types of trade and we start focusing on the china trade. last time here, we were talking about baba and trading summer in the 90s and looks great on chart and technically ready and david tepper came out and fully long china and helping that whole sector. i went long today. there's a risk reward setup heading into earnings next week. liz: taking bets on china and looking at global picture. what looks good to you? >> so we are tactically long europe and caught the whole move that happened basically in january.

going for the tactical call and the market is very, very underweight and short europe and couple of catalysts and basically it's a german election and things could change and signs of green chutes and manufacturing globally and germany for example going to be exposing the manufacturing than the u.s. is. the same manufacturing and breaking about 50 going over late with the german manufacturing and they're both moving up togethers. >> levels are different and telling you it's the same driver and maybe it's the beginning of the lifting of this funk for global manufacturing for two and a half years and that's going for them on the pandemic. nothing more than that. liz: we got cpi today and going at two year high and all the

metrics look hotter handout expected, scott. is the market so used to inflation where it is right now? kind of treading water maybe a little hotter water and very sticky at the moment if water can be stick jim jordan and there you go, on the screen. all of these numbers were better than estimates and so when you think about what happened here, storm we get ppi and manufacturing level inflation and is there a trade there? >> once you get the cpi kind of dulls the ppi, whichever comes first and ppi not affecting trade as well as today and the morning trade, i think we're just going to get a lot of headlines and president trump going for the office and going to talk about the tariffs and reciprocal tariffs and inflation and like earnings good and saying for 50. liz: look at rates. two year up eight basis and ten

year up ten basis points at the moment to 4.63%. jowski what i would say is rates market catching up to our house call going for no rate cut this year. i would add -- liz: no rate cuts? >> >> this morning and we're not overreacting for them and bad prints and also pointing out that inflation surprised globally and so while it doesn't look like there's a seasonal impact in january and the profile looks very similar that happened last year. and there may be a seasonal element, time will tell. and while inflation surprised globally and seasonal element to

it and in the u.s., surprised bigger than eric in the world but there's a bit of both and i think time will tell. >> i think we just normalized 10 yores above five and that happened and market got very jitter reigns leading and right here, we're kind of in the middle of the ring and markets care and computers care and getting to new thresholds and right now at this 4.6 where we're at. i think the demand and economics on fundamentals of s&p able to support that for no. >> dutch liz: overall numb and could be big headlines tomorrow anding funky and going for them and two stocks caught in separate drug wars at this hour and one bio-tech cashing in and the other crashing out. we'll get you the story and stocks next and you think your you're shell shocked by high price of eggs and what about the cake boss? bakery empire purchasing 8 million eggs a year.

buddy the reality baking show star ahead of carlos bakery empire here in a fox business exclusive on how he's dealing with this education tenable crisis and keeping rates high the answer? first on fox business, former fed vice chair lael brainard and solutions and fed down 210 points.

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liz: biogen marking 12 year low and stock falling 5% and slightly off the session lows but the profit fore kase came in

below going for the drop in sales of microsoft drugs and steal -- multiple sclerosis drugs and the shares are advancing close to the top of the nasdaq after the bio-tech posted a top and bottom line beat. what's the difference with biogen. so did biogen and gilead shares hitting highest in a decade and forecast full year 2025 profit above estimates and raying to 123 per share and 102 and change at the moment. upstart holding stock hit ago 52-week high after ai lending platform beat quarterliest mattes and issued upbeat

guidance and reported a narrower than expected loss of three-cents per share and adjusted to push the stock higher by 32%. it's a lending marketplace using ai to assess b borrower's credit worthiness and neutral to underweight and increasing price from $57 to $79 and at 89 and change right now. they're a bit behind the curve there. now nearly every chicken producing eggs that cost their weight in gold. what's it doing to businesses dependent on eggs and key ingredient? we don't have willie wonka but the cake boss is here and reality show star and head of carlos bakery empire is here. buddy joining us in a fox business exclusive to talk about how soaring prices are turning his business from a cake walk to

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big tariff becauser. but has not announced any specific taxes geared yards the country. we have john deere and during president trump's running up to the 2024 election, he threatened deer with 200% tariff ifs the company laid off u.s. staff and moved production from midwest to mexico. how is deere and frankly the restitch the nation's ago business community bracing for tariffs? kelly s aberi is live from the ag show. reporter: it's not common to hear from the american farm bureau and hearing from the

community as a whole and 80% of potash from can darks key ingredient in fertilizer in the u.s. is critical to the farm community and they don't usually speak out against administrations but they still made that statement. we've also spoken to farmers and people in the ago orbit here about how really difficult it's been all around in many different faucets for the farmers and labor shortages and water conservation issues and now looming tariffs and things are harder. take a listen. >> tariffs are challenged and trying to rebound and recover and i'm an almond farmer and almond market took a big plummet down during that time. really there's the thought of tariffs is kind of intimidating and something we're excited about.

reporter: almonds being the top five largest exports and what we need is technology to improve efficiency and yield. there is one of time's invention of the world in 2024 and using ai to study temperature, hue huedty, accuse tick patterns ane issues and how long the bees are taking landing on each crop and how long to take to pollinate. how much the bee population is struggling. >> i would say the average person is un-aware and we're shocked for numbers that you see in this particular year has been really tough and challenging on beekeepers and the loss numbers and going for colony collapse and disorders on the charts this

year. reporter: hearing from the bee hero founders and climate change and disease. this one goes out into the field and while this one of what the fair moans are doing and going for the technology to make things more efficient and ideal. kelly saberi. worrying about the investors in the laryngoeric producer of fresh shell eggs are watching the stock really flap its wings. over the past six month asks cal

main shares soaring egg prices affecting businesses that need those eggs, millions to make the products like carlos bakery, the faith reigns leading empire of cake boss fame purchases incredible 8 million egg as year. we have the original head of cake boss buddy velastro. going to see a pop in price. >> it's scary, liz, to be honest with you. look, everything is cyclical and especially in our business. we try to absorb the up front

and how long till you pass it along down the road? again, we buy it in pounds and if you're buying $1.60 a pound and now at $2.70 a pound, that's insane. you have to pay the consumer trying to say we do this much or that and have scary. it's a scary world. that goings for fr freak went ad bird flu going up and down. liz: i was at whole foods this weekend and took video of egg

refrigerator reiter, which was basically -- refrigerator and basically totally empty and show that video and it was stunning to me that there it is. i've never seen this before. it's not just eggs, buddy, bakery products, flours up eight at the points of a percent, sugar up two tents and butter and margarine up three tenths. i don't know if you use arine. >> no, we don't. all the things we do use and they are going up and down. i'm 48 years old and it just seems like over the last 15 years, you're hearing we need to wipe out a flock. where did that come frond and prices rise or fall a bit but

now, i guess, we're maybe more hearing more about it. liz: they've mutated and going for them and. >> going for absorbing and tipping pointed when you have to and raise to consumer and hopefully we can absorb as much as we can. liz: you've expanded rapidly and started with one store on a corner in hoboken, new jersey, and took over at a very young age when your dad died; correct? >> yeah, i was 17 years old and thinking this is my life and what we're doing and the thing is that it's funny because i still do the same thing that i did back then just on a bigger scale. people don't realize that just because we use a million pounds

of eggs, they're still eggs and still done the same way we did it in the hoboken bakery like our cake batter. we still -- we used to make maybe a thousand pounds of batter a day. now at the factory we can make up to 30-70,000 pounds of cake batter in a day. but it's still the same raw ingredients: sugar, flower, eggs. we still put custard cream, that was like an old trick that i did to keep the cake moist. remember you were saying my cake was super moist. liz: the strawberry short cake. >> the thing is all done with science today. so we're measuring the specific gravity of every single cake bat tore be 7-7.3. we're checking the moisture content of every single cake that's 32-34%. liz: as you continue to try and give the best product ever, and up to your standards to every

customer, you've expanded to now something like 16 different concept stores throughout the united states and you're big in vegas. i was at time square one last night leaving the theater. i love the 50-foot statue of you. that's amazing. >> that was my wife's doing. she designed that store. liz: it's pretty incredible. and you're now partnering with wal-mart. you also export to canada. so you may be caught in the tariff wars here. is this something that's brand new to you having to deal with that? >> well, it is. i mean, it definitely is. getting into retail, we launched into retail almost two years ago, and we have a lot of different skus in wal-mart. they've been amazing partners. we started doing it and i was a bit skeptical like just because you hear like nightmare stories going for them and it's going for your bakery and going to

cheapen the recipe and use the same quality and same integrity, and that was like a breath of fresh air. this is what the cookie will look inland and orange county hopefully at spend who is decorating it, liz. i don't know your decorating skills. but open up the package and there is four cookies that have the fondant. liz: smart business people will find a way and put out an interesting product and keep surviving. >> i'm going to keep pivoting and changing and we started more

after covid. after covid we learned that we can make a lot of cakes like we had the production and, you know, same way i would design and develop cakes that might jump spin and now i develop lines where we can do, let's say 20, 25 cake as minute. liz: you're churning them out, i love the story. it's a great, great story. good luck with dealing with the high prices, buddy. >> thank you so much. we have to do it as a country. it's all of us. we're in this together. liz: we sure are. cake boss, buddy valasco here on the claman countdown. we are coming back with lael brainard, maybe she has solutions for us. stay tuned.

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liz: ahead of jay powell's testimony before congress, president trump tried to head him off at the pass posting on social mediaierly "interest rates lowered and something which would go hand-in-hand with upcoming tariffs. let's rock and roll. the hot cpi numbers showed headline inflation hit ago two year high means something different to what the fed is going to do. liz: making past interest rate decisions and former federal reserve vice chair and former nec director lael brainard. thank you for joining us, lael.

i need your gut reaction to headline and core consumer price index for january and all came in hotter than expected. sin fellation now stuck and even going to go higher? >> my sound just cut out. liz: does this mean we're not going to see just sticky inflation sticking higher and more for the federal reserve? >> can you hear me now? liz: yes, i hear you. it's not the inflation print that certainly the white house was hoping for and also probably that the federal reserve was

hoping for and inflation hotter this morning. and as a result the federal reserve going to be wait in see mode for longer. the markets are not expect ago rate hike till the end of the year. any is at a place where inflation is higher and people are ho hoping and residents maye to the upside and not so much expectation of inflation coming down. liz: the fed said putting out standard economic projections they expected two rate cuts in 2025 now pushing the first all the way out close tore the end of the year, how many are you expecting?

>> with today's data and market and expectation is only one cut and seems plausible, but early in the year and we've got a lot of developments ahead of us, and things could push inflation higher. things that could lead both the labor markets to loosen up and hold steady. i think that's reasonable to me. liz: do you see a rate hike? is that at all on your landscape coming to these economic pictures for the next year? >> from when i see today, the labor market is in a good balance and unemployment at 4% and jobs to worker numbers and chair powell cited this morning are in much better balance than they were a few years ago.

leading the federal reserve going to increase and holding rates steady is still for some sectors of the economy, small businesses you borrow a lot and residential conn construction. that is still going to be a drag. liz: tariffs, president trump slammed 25% tariffs on all incoming companies on steel and aluminum. looking back to 2018 when you were at the fed. in 2018 of march right after president trump announced first steel tariffs during his first presidential go round. here's what consumer price index numbers showed. they started ticking up. it was not a pretty picture. march 2.4% then april 2.5.

may, 2.8. june 2.9 and peaked in july 2.9% and started going down and coincided with the fed hiking rates to tamp down inflation. if the tariffs are enacted, do you expect that we will continue to see a trajectory similar to that where we continue to see inflation go higher? >> certainly possible that tariff goes up depending on the sector and how big and widespread they are and just on china, which has been the case primarily up to now. then lots of companies can go elsewhere and so you might not see as much of a price increase but if we see broad based tariffs, the kinds of reciprocal tariffs that the president has been talking about, yeah, we could see prices going up. other countries may respond by

raising their tariffs and you could actually see that kind of pattern. too early to tell. i think the main point right now is the uncertainty a and businesses having a hard time understanding what the tariffs will be. liz: president trump said he was elected to put tariffs on countries he felt were mistreating us and said he's going to cut taxes, extend and make permanent certain tax cuts, and he wants to end taxes on things like tips. at the same time he's going to deport illegal immigrants he said. when you throw that all into the big pot and you mix it up what does is translate to you as far as the country's debt is concerned. we've had two ratings agencies cut the triple-a credit rating

of the united states down to aa+ and the third moody may well came in and anticipate that and going for them with give aways. >> more than half is the tax cut for top 3% of earners and expensive set of tax cuts and if you add onto that, some of the additional tax cuts that he has said he wants to make, woe could see a downgrade and that could

be a complicated and potentially inflationary environment and a lot of things, again, there's been a lot of talk but not yet clarity on whether all those things are likely to happen. liz: what about the argument that you cut taxes on top end and middle class as well and what about the fact that people have more money in their pockets and spend more and pay more in taxes and revenues go up. don't see it like that? >> in this case for about 4.5 trillion of revenue reductions and that's tax cuts being extended and we'll see an extension of the current loss of revenues net and takes into

account the activity that's generated and they take into account that kind of activity and these are primarily on individuals and these are really not so much on a business tax cut side. liz: we've run out of time but, lael, i'd love to have you back. thank you. >> thank you. liz: lael brainard and we're coming back with more and the markets are all red and major indebses and we'll explain what's going on in just a second... ♪. (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses

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for a tesla chart and up about 2.74% and you see the dropoff here. it had been up more than 5% but it started to lose steam after a post on x from our very own charlie gasparino about ceo elon musk. charlie, what did you tweet? >> what did i tweet? can you put it up? liz: yeah, of course. >> i tweet what had i'm reporting on this show right now. musk told people he plans to spend four months, this is the key part and not spending on

tesla but four months working on doge. he's aiming at cutting $2 trillion from the budget and he wants to essentially get inflation down to 2%, and that's where he think ifs he can get 2 trillion out of the budget, not worrying about inflation and the bond, 10 year bond, which is imperative to the trump economic agenda staying below 5% and that's the whole plan and reason why it's down is not the good parts of the 2%. elon musk is famous for multitasking with neurolink and x or twitter, tesla, the minute i posted on social media, the

algos kicked in and stock was going to take. >> the perceived distraction. >> yeah, if he buys something and he's going to use tesla stock to buy it. that has downward pressure of $40 billion worth of tesla stock or might was $40 billion and used tesla stock to buy twitter and downward impact on price and if recovered and dance festivals and bench press laddish. liz: the redundancies and stuff we shouldn't. >> i'll say this, liz, it's known as soft power. u.s. exerts software and we want

family in the places to appreciate mid-medicine. appreciate america. and adopt our ways and be friendly to our system of government. trade with us. he'll start from zero and crush everything and the administrative state was so out of control, particularly under joe biden is began a lot under barack obama and joe biden we were funding the most insane asinine things in the world and starting from zero. >> american public sits there, liz. what the hell is going on? i don't care if he's spending two sents. have you r ever read political pro? liz: no, i got to read something else. the intro to our count down closer from doge to dogs. monte, the gigantic snauzer

binning best in show. he stepped up saying okay, give it to us, robert. >> thanks for having us, liz. the earning ands there's a lot of talk on is he still the leader and going to win the ai race and they're the leader and mag seven can't afford to lose as evidenced by 200 billion are submitting to spend in the ai space and growing year over year 112% on earning ands future valuations at 29% multiple. tesla and metas like costco and

amazon and long term growth for inflation and year hedge and shop at the project for depreciation over the long term. three ideas today. liz: you're saying that costco will be the first non-tech company to reach 1 trillion market cap? jaire it has potential and wind in their sail as cost cutting and password crackdown like nvidia or like netflix did, but with their membership if you l. the efficiency to scale are second to none with costco. liz: all right, markets mostly down and gutting out reaction to president trump tomorrow. larry: hello, folks. welcome to kudlow, i'm larry