maria: welcome back. 30 minutes before the opening bell sounds for a tuesday, markets under selling pressure if at the lows of the morning on the heels of a big selloff yesterday. dow drills down 143 -- industrials down 143. brianna. >> donald trump or is an american president who doesn't want to force the american people to cede their sovereignty and safety. that's why he's implementing tariffs. this is a man who cares about the country. maria: cheryl, real quick. >> an israeli hostage a will be will the there tonight. i likely will be crying when i see her. maria: more yes. "varney & company" picks it up. stu, take it away. stuart: good morning, everyone. the tariffs will be applied, and investors do not like it. as of bid night, 25% slapped on imports from mexico, 25% from

canada and 10 or 20% from china. china that has already responded with air riffs on american farm products. mexico's president says retaliatory tariffs are coming on sun. president trump says this is no room left for negotiations, and he wants more progress on fentanyl. heavy selling on wall street monday when news of the tariffs hit, more selling this morning. a ton of red ink again. the dow off about 130, same with the nasdaq, down about 130 points. that's premarket activity. and look at bitcoin, all the way a back to 83 -- no, $82,700. trump's plan for a crypto reserve taking heavy criticism. look at a interest rates, way down. the 10-year yields 4.14%. the 2-year way below 4%, you're looking now at 3.95. oil's down as well. $67 a barrel. gas, little changed at $3.09 for regular, it's $3.65 for diesel.

all right. politics. ukraine getting squeezed. trump has poured the -- can paused the delivery of weapons. our president was very upset when zelenskyy suggested the war could go on for years. trump said that's a unacceptable and promptly held back the weapons. new polling shows that the president and his policies are popular despite attacks in the paid ya and contempt from some democrats. 58 think he's doing a better job than biden -- 58%. we have found that industry, that is a tariff winner, lumber. trump is putting a tariff on timber coming in from canada and china, and he's taking action to boost domestic production from 280 million acres of federal fest land. and tonight -- forest land. and tonight the president addresses a joint session of congress. the democrats are divided on how they're going to respond, do they demonstrate, keep quiet or just don't show up?

the republicans, though, they will be cheering. s the tuesday, march 4th, 2025. "varney & company" is about the begin. ♪ ♪ american president biden, something you feel inside -- american pride, something you feel merchandise. stuart: i know this song is. a alabama. >> that's one of the states. [laughter] stuart: thank you very much. having lived here for 50 years, i'm glad you know the states. president trump set to address the nation if tonight, and it's all about the renewal of the american dream. todd piro, he's here with me this morning. what else do we me about what the president's going to say? >> he's going to go over a number of key pill lairs, the immigration, the economy and looking ahead. sort of promising the american people, hey, the american dream

is within reach. i think you need to drive home those points. look how quickly i changeed immigration, i sealed the the border. but on the economy, i think he needs to be somewhat reticent is. i think he needs the make the point that i cannot undo the damage of the biden administration within who months. that's going to take more time. i wouldn't use the phrase trust me on it, but i would say the things that he has done that eventually within months if not years will inure to the men out of -- benefit of the american people and, stu, dot, dot, the dot, finally lead to the american dream for more americans. stuart: you do know the president is not reticent normally. you do know that. >> i understand that. that that's where his speech writers in trump number two need to come to the fore tonight. they're going to earn tear money. stuart: stay there -- >> will do. stuart: -- you're with me for a while. trump said the a 25% tariffs on

canada and mexico imports, they are in effect as of today. cab da immediately responded with -- canada immediately responded with countertariffs, china will impose a 15% tariff on u.s. farm products, mexico's president says retaliatory tariffs are coming on sunday. basically, we've got a trade war. plenty of red ink. invests don't like this. charles -- investors don't like this. charles payne if with us. we don't know the impact on the economy. that's the problem, right if. >> it's a problem, but i think the scare tactics are more of a problem for individual investors than anything else. this last thursday we saw bearishness go to 60%, the fourth highest in the last 30 years. the three prior times that it did that, the s&p was off the high 49%, 35% and 30%. you know how much it was the off the a high last thursday? if 3%. so there's this constant

pounding and fear mongering that the's really worn into sort of investors' psyching, marley the retail investor's -- particularly the retail nervous' psyche. i think we're with also a missing out on being many else, and that's a weakening economy. i think scott bessent is 100% right when he said this administration inherent -- inherited recession is. tata has maxed a lot of pain out there, and and if now a lot of those economic numbers, look at the gdp if now. thursday it was -- we were looking at first quarter 2.3%, pretty it's if -1.5, yesterday it was -2.8%. that's' not all a trade. we're seeing dramatic, i mean, free falls. some of this is early in the first quarter, but this is scary stuff. so there's a lot more going on, a lot more substantial things going on besides tariffs because, listen, this is soft data that. they haven't hit yet, right? so the economic data that's

moving the market are in place and moving in the wrong direction. stuart: tell me about the strategic crypto reserve, because you look at a the cryptos, when the president announced strategic reserve, cryptos went straight up. now they've come all the way back down again. bitcoin's ab at $82,000. it got a lot of heavy criticism. >> yeah -- [laughter] almost everything trump's going to do is going to get heavy criticism is. the only reason it got criticism within the crypto community, per se, is the addition of some coins that people think don't have the sort of gravitas of a bitcoin. i think a lot of folks would like to see this bitcoin-only, and i think the cardonas of the world will be a very small portion of this. i hi will will be pray marely -- primarily driven by bitcoin, and within that community it's well received. listen, remember when george bush wanted to do something with social security with respect to the stock market and that was not well receivedsome. stuart: right. >> if we had actually invested

this money into the market rath raher than whatever the hell we did with it, this insolvency problem would probably be so much marginalized, minimized so drastically from where it is right now. charles: all right, charles, thanks for joining us. we will watch you at 2:00 this afternoon, "making money." you've got a special guest, former u.k. prime minister liz truss. >> yeah. she was driven out by the bond vigilantes -- stuart: she was, indeed. after only a few days. thanks, charles. a new op-ed from from pollster mark penn if points to trump's pop lairty. americans like his -- pop lairty. pop lairty. mary katharine ham joins me this morning. clearly, voters approve of trump's policies. >> that that's what they've been doing since the e her yens of trump on to to scene, and i think it's worked out so well that he has now in his second

term. i think he's had massive wins on immigration. he should i tout those in his state of the union light tonight, as i like to call it. he's cone very serious speeches -- he's done very serious speeches in the past. the other thing he promised was a cost of living change for people, and i think that is where he's going to run are up against some problems. puff a softening economy, if you have inflation and then you do the tariffs, at the very least i think people might look at that situation as what's this guy doing? he's not doing the cost of living tough. that's' where he runs a risk. he can talk about that ma maturely tonight, talk about what he was left with, and in the past he has done serious speeches -- >> reticent and maturely on the economy. pay attention. >> we'll see. [laughter] stuart: senator elisse is slat ken, michigan democrat, she's going to give the rebut ifal to trump's address. -- rebuttal. she's been openly critical of some of her own party's

policies. by causing that the the particularsenator -- choosing that particular if senator, are democrats looking for a common sense politician? >> anyone who can be a reasonable facsimile of a normal american is who they want to put in front of the camera. this is one of the worst jobs in politics, and there is stiff competition because you're talking usually to an empty room after the giant pomp and circumstance of the tate of the union. it doesn't usually go well. bobby jindal has has a -- had a miss, katie britt had a mis. -- had a miss. this is a tough, tough gig. i would not want it, so is i'll woo see -- stuart: mary katherine, thanks for being with us. love the see you in new york. full coverage of trump's joint address to congress, special coverage starts at 6 p.m. eastern on "the bottom line." tomorrow the mayors of new york

city, boston, denver, chicago, all sanctuary cities, those mayors will testify on capitol hill about their refusal to work with i.c.e. coming i, border czar -- coming up, border czar tom homan is here. president trump, he's paused military aid to ukraine after that a spat between him and zelenskyy in the oval office. the white house is squeezing zelenskyy. senator mike if rounds on that next. ♪ if pronamel clinical enamel strength can help us to keep our enamel for a lifetime. it's backed by science it is clinically proven to strengthen our teeth.

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♪ stuart: yeah, it's tonight. president trump delivers his first joint address to congress of his second term.

alexandria that -- hoff at the white house for us. back we expect to see and here tonight? >> reporter: the theme is the renewal of the american dream according to the white house which is calling tonight's speech must-watch tv. it will be broken down into four different parts, the president's accomplishments so far, the administration's actions on the economy, the need for more border curt funding and the president's plan for peace around the world. >> people always say when you're on camera, you know, try to be stoic and try not to show your cards. i'm going to have fun tomorrow because the president of the united states, he's going to make a lot of good argument as, he's going to talk about a lot of the successes that we've had in these first 45 days. he's also going to be the himself which means he's going the poke a little fun, and we're going to have a good time tomorrow. so i'm just going to try to enjoy it. >> reporter: there could be some surprises but no surprise that elon musk is going to aa tend as well as the president's expected to tout doge's efforts to cut costs.

other notable guests, the family of the firefighter killed during the butler, pennsylvania, trump assassination attempt, cade lin mcnabb who was injured playing in a women's volleyball match plague against a male, mark fogel, released from confinement, and the mother and sister of laken rivalry. on the democrat side, many of them will be bringing in fired federal workers as their guests, but there's been a division how they should respond to the president's speech. some of them are considering not showing up. >> we shouldn't be surprised if we see walkouts, we shouldn't be surprised if we see, you know, the kind of coordinated earth in dressing a -- effort in dressing a certain way to send a message. >> reporter: house minority lead hakeem jeffries encourages members to show up, he wants a strong show of opposition present during the speech. send is it back to you. stuart: thank, alexandria. listen the what president trump says he needs from zelenskyy to restart negotiations. watch this.

>> well, i just think he should be more appreciative because this country has stuck with them through thick and thin. we've given them much more than europe, and europe should have given more than us. we gave $350 billion, they probably gave 100. but on top of it all, they get their money back because they're doing it in the form of a loan, and it's a secured loan. so when i saw that that, which i've known about a for a little while, i said it's time for us to be smart. stuart: the news here is that that that trump has announced he's pausing all u.s. military aid to ukraine. a member of the senate armed services committee, senator mike rounds, joins me now. mr. senator, zelenskyy's being pressured. do you think he'll eventually sign the minerals deal? >> i think both parties want to do the minerals deal. i think we need the get it back with on track as soon as we can. that would bring an american presence into ukraine which will make it much more difficult for vladimir, for vladimir putin the actually the continue

the war because he could be harming americans. so i think this is a first step. it most certainly, nobody wants to see the bloodshed continue on. the i know the ukrainians most certainly to do not want the see that. if we can get to a'sfire, that's a step in the -- ceasefire, that's a step in the right direction. i really appreciate the fact that the president wants to end the bloodshed. i think he believes this is a first step. stuart: let me press a little on that. do you think that zelenskyy eventually will have to to sign the deal? >> i don't think it's so much a matter of having to sign the deal as i think he wants to sign the deal. i think he was prepared to sign the deal this last week before everything blew up in the white house, but i think, i think that he wants to get to to the point where he can protect his country, and he understands as much as they want to make sure that they don't lose land, they also know that he treasures

his children, he treasures their people. but he says, look, we're in this thing, we're there on the front lines right now, we need your help, and i think he wants to do everything he can to keep the coalition together including the united states of america. and so he is more than willing, i believe, to work with the president to get to the point where there is no more bloodshed there in ukraine. stuart: tonight the president addresses the joint session of congress. his theme is the renewal of the american dream. i'm pretty sure the republicans will give him a rousing reception, right? >> no question about it. look, number one, we've never had a president before who said, look, i'm going to cut down the size of the executive branch of government. i'm going to go after the waste, the fraud, the abuses that have filed -- piled up over decades. and at the same time, what he is saying is i know that the congress has given up a lot of their authority back to the executive branch over the last 80 years or sor, and -- so, and here's a guy who's

saying i'm going the take my opportunity to make changes in the executive branch. we're cheering him on in a a lot of ways, but we get it when you're moving as fast that as he's moving, there's going to to be some member being -- mistakes. we want to make sure we get things done right. we're going to work as a team, i think we've got 20 the members of his cabinet actually in place right now, that's setting a new record. we want the to be a part of this -- to be a part of this team moving forward. stuart: elon musk is going to be there. i wonder what kind of reception he will get from democrats, some of whom will have fired federal workers sitting next to them. how do you think they're going to respond to musk? >> i don't think that's hard to figure out. look, this is a show evening, this an opportunity for republicans and democrats to express their points of view. the president is going to have some fun with it, but at the same time democrats have the opportunity to do that as well. there's going to be some

fireworks. stuart: indeed there will be. senator mike rounds, thank you very much for joining us, sir is. see you again tonight. thank you, sir. new york's top fbi agent, james denny hawaii, he says he was just forced into retirement. what's the story? >> he is the head -- was the head, i should say, of the fbi new york office, out a month if after he urged colleagues to, quote, dig in after the trump administration requested the names of all a agent as who worked on january 6th cases. fox digital obtaining an e-mail where he wrote, quote, late friday i was informedded i needed to put my retirement papers in tonight t today, which i just did. he played a lead role in the corruption investigation of nice new york city mayor erin -- newy mayor eric adams. stuart: he's out. check futures, please. plenty of red. dow off 160, nasdaq down 123. that thatting obvious, follows big -- of course, follows big losses yesterday. the opening bell is

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stuart: all right. check futures, still plenty of red ink after yesterday's big selloff. nasdaq down 125 with about four minutes to to go til the opening bell. ray wang joining me. i want to start with taiwan semi. $100 billion invested in america but, ray, they're still going to to make tear top of the line chips -- their top of the line chips in taiwan, right? >> they definitely are. and it's one of these things where the idea of having tsmc invest in the u.s. is about a making sure we can bring that chip manufacturing capacity in the u.s. and not having it just as a one-horse race with intel. but, in fact, the top chips are still going to be in taiwan because of a very, very specialized process. but we've got to bring more back into the u.s. stuart: we've got saudi arabia pledging $600 billion, apple $500 billion. openai, oracle, softbank together $500 billion. tsmi, $100 billion. that is a vast amount of money coming into american big tech.

>>s. and one of the things -- it is. and one with of the things trump has a done is gone and figured out who the leaders in big tech and a.i. were and and brought them together to create a series of announcements talking about investment in the u.s. and this was actually very strategic because he did this right before all the a tariffs, and is we're to seeing an effect of lots of investment in the u.s. this is the game in town for direct foreign investment and, of course, if you don't build here, you're going to get hit by by the tariffs. it's kind of a carrot and stick approach in a a way we haven't seen before. stuart: taiwan semi, you've got a target price of, what, $200 on it in. >> definitely do. and one of the things they have is they have $165 billion total investments in u.s. manufacturing. they're going to add three more facilities. hay currently have two chip plants poland, a two-chip packaging plant and they're going to to build a $100 billion r&d center. this is a very important piece really around making sure the technology in the future, chips,

is there. sometime back, about three years ago a, they passed intel in the ability to actually deliver on key chips. there's a three-nanometer chip capability that intel still hasn't been able to deliver on. stuart: you made your money on big tech. if i'm not mistake. you've told me that several times. the the magnificent seven is. you've invested and done very well. if well, those stocks have sold off. yesterday in particular they sold off a bigtime. are you buying this dip? >> i'm not buying the dip get yet. i think there's a little bit more to go. you've seen nvidia, a 9 drop overnight, softbank dropped about a 6.25% along the way. there's a little bit more to go because the market's not making sense what's a going with the trump's tariffs. the one that's handed with canada, mexico and china is about take the fentanyl out of our street, do your job. number two is a reciprocal tariff saying if you're charging

us 30 -- 40% for american cars in europe and we're only charging you 0, let's agree on 0, 10 is or 40. the market hasn't understood what that that means. when we get to the national security tariffs, that's when the market's going the understand what's really happened, and right now it's a little bitter irrational cans why there's a punishment on big tech stocks. i'd wait a little bit more. stuart: okay, that's the headline of the day from ray wang, not back into big tech kwre9. >> not yet. stuart: keeping the powder dry. >> let's keep the powder dry. [laughter] stuart: see you again soon. all right. we're about to open this market. heavy selling yesterday, dow was off about 650 points, it was down 900 at at one point, closed down 650. it's going the to be down again at the opening bell this morning which has just rung, and the market's open. the dow is down right from the get go, off 267 points. we've got the s&p down 43.

the nasdaq is down 173. again, there's plenty of selling on this tariff news. check out big tech. okay, let's go there -- big tech, please. the only winner at this moment is apple, and it's up just 35 cents, that that's it. alphabet, microsoft, meta, amazon all on the downside. now hoe me nvidia, please -- show me nvidia, please. another big drop premarket, it's down 1.9%. i think it was down about 9% yesterday. taylor riggs with me yesterday. a bad start to the week. is it just because of tariffs, or is there something else going on? >> right now it does look like it's tariffs. so with nvidia they do say there are some impacts from the tariffs on mexico and canada, but, stu, i think yesterday and today it's overall also a just a broader market selloff. , and of course, nvidia is so wrapped up in the market that when the market sells off, nvidia leads the way. this has started tariff

conversation. stuart: premarket right now $112 a share. what's the latest on tesla? did they have -- down again, 4%. did they have sales numbers out? >> yep, and it is not good. tesla's made in china were down 49% year-over-year to the lowest level since august of 2022. they made just 30,000 cars last month. again, there's a lot of pressure from chinese rivals and, of course, the price wars that are underway within evs. stuart: that's a sharp selloff, $272 on tesla. waymo and uber, they're opening -- they're starting autonomous rides in austin, texas. can you tell me how that works can and where they might if go after a austin, texas? >> yes. how fun is? i actually was in san francisco, and i rode a waymo. the technology's unbelievable. now if you're in us aen, what a do we say, yee haw, giddy up? so fun. open up your uber app, and you can opt in to do a waymo instead of a traditional a uber with a

driver. and then you just get in. and it's actually really cool. the waymo 40 pulls up, you press a code, it unlocks, you jump in, you buckle up, you hit ready -- buck. up, you hit ready to go, and you don't even have to interact with anyone in the driver's seat. stuart: i yo did that? >> i did in san francisco, yes. pulls up, no crashes. good technology. stuart: let's move on. apple. they just added their new m3 chip to the ipad air. hold on a second is. does that mean that apple intelligence is now on that apple ipad? if. >> absolutely. you got it. it was fun. tim cook, he teased this earlier on x saying there is something in the air, and we finally are got the announcement. it is an ipad air that just came out with, yes, the the m3 chip. they're saying it is the two times faster compared with the ipad air a with the m if 1 chip and three and a half times faster than the ipad air with the a a 4 bionic. and again, a similar starting

price, $599 for the 1- inch and $799 for the 13-inch -- 11-inch. stuart: appr -- apple's the only tech stock moving up this morning. to okta just add their earnings out. they must have been good. >> yeah. they said this was a breakout to quarter across the board. and listen to some comments from the ceo. he said there's companies that benefit from a.i. infrastructure, there's companies that are selling the applications that benefit from a.i. models in those applications, and then there are security companies like u.s. where we benefit from all of the above. and so the a.i. optimism if also fueling the stock. stuart: well -- tell me about a target. they had their earnings out this morning, and they are down 4%. >> i think because you're getting some comments on tariff9s. same-store sales were up 1.5% in a very important holiday quarter, that was better than estimates, full-year guidance

for earnings per share was also a beat. beauty, apparel, toys and sporting goods were good. except the ceo said they have diverse pied their supply chain, and so they aren't expecting a big hit from tariffs especially if they are, customers are going the start to see price increases, get this, in the next couple days. stuart ouch. best buy, they were out earlier this morning as well. >> yep. similar. story. same-store sales were good in the holiday season, but no one cares because the ceo was making comments at the consumer today feels very similar, stu, to what we felt last year. resilient but cautious. focused on value and very hesitant or, i should say, maybe aware of those high ticket purchases. so, again, you're getting that nuance. resilient but cautious, and so is it continues. stuart: down 13%, my goodnesses. walgreens. but they're going private, aren't they? >> yes, they are. we're hearing the buyout would

be $11.30-1 1140 a share -- 11.40 a share by sycamore partners. after nearly a decade slide in the stock and mess management in terms of -- mismanagement in terms of focusing on a retail footprint, this is a stock that maybe needs to get out of the public eye, do some private soul searching and then maybe reenter the market later when they have some things together. stuart: and stop locking everything up so that i can buy stuff -- >> thank you. right. stuart: cryptos. what happened here? trump announces the crypto reserve, all of them go up. now after a couple of days, they're all a down. >> yep, and failing to recoup that $85,000 level which was a level we wanted to see if it could bounce up from after that announcement. so, again, how much of this is -- one note i read was we don't have details on the amount a, how the purchaser s -- purchases are being made, when it's happening s. to there's a

lack of detail. stuart got it. taylor, we're going to watch you on "the big money show," 12 noon eastern time. we'll be watching, thanks a lot. the big board shows a 400-point drop, almost 11th down. so if you -- 1% down. if you add a up yesterday's of 650-point loss and today's 400-point loss, you've got a 1,000-point loss in 24 hours. s&p, the winners, walgreens boots, super micro, american tower, sba a, microchip technologies. right at bottom there, up $1.20. nasdaq winners, we've got walgreens on the top of the list, global foundries, warner brothers, idex laboratories and applied materials. there are some winners, but it's mostly down today. coming up, vice president vance opening up on what went wrong in the oval office. the chat there with ukraine with's president zelenskyy. watch this -- ukraine's

president zelenskyy. >> i tried again to to say, well, maybe we should have this conversation in private, expect president was like, nope, i don't want to have it in private anymore. there was a lack of respect, a certain sense of entitlement. stuart: we're going to take that question on. tariffs starting today, 25% on canada and mexico, an additional 10% on china. now the u.s. is facing retaliatory tariffs. is there a winner from all this? economist brian wesbury takes it on. he's next. ♪ if. ♪ ♪ if let it go, down the highway ♪ ♪(voya)♪ there are some things that work better together.

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she says that there's no reason for trump's tariff, but he does respect the president, and he respects her. separately, prime minister of canada trudeau, he holds his press conference at 10:30 this morning. a automakers preparing for trump's tariffs. jeff flock hat a -- at a dealership in pennsylvania for us. how will car prices be affected by the tariffs? >> reporter: not going down, i'll tell you that that right now. and there's -- i don't think i speak too strongly when i say there's real fear out here on car9 lots about what's happening. i don't know, david keller, am i speaking too strongly? >> quell, no many. -- well, no, there is fear. >> reporter: what's the fear. >> we're just starting to get our market back. it's starting to feel good again out here, and these types of tariffs are going the impact us in such a dramatic way. and it's the parts too. it's going to affect if our service department -- >> reporter: all these parts come across the border. >> a lot of them, a great deal of them under the nafta

agreements. so they were doing the right thing, playing within the rules, and all of a sudden our customers are going to come in and have to pay 25% more for a part k if that's going to be a problem, and then the cars -- >> reporter: the cars, yeah. we're standing in front of jeep compasses here, stuart. this is just tip of the iceberg. take a look. it's not just stellantis the jeep compass, but the ram trucks. a lot of those are made in mexico. gm makes its chevy blazer this in mexico. ford, its mach e. that's just a few examples. >> and as we get into the electric market, you know, the wagoneer s which has come out of the gates very strongly, that's made in mexico. and our charger and challenger electrics are made in canada. >> reporter: kelly blue book says it's going to cost $3,000 more per car can sounds like a lot -- >> i don't see that. it's a 25% tariff, so an $80,000

ram 2500 that that's not built or shipped yet, that's eligible for a 25% tariff. >> reporter: so $100,000. ouch. mr. varney, good luck to you. stuart: you spell spelled it all out, jeff flock, thanks very much, indeed. economist brian wes bear by -- wesbury with me now. can you tick -- pick out a winner in an industry that might be winning here? [laughter] not that i know. you know, stuart, i haven't really thought about it that way. but, no. look, i'm a free market economist. i've never really liked tariffs. do i -- i love the trump agenda of reducing the size of government, reducing regulations. i do -- and i get going after immigration and fentanyl and using tariffs as a negotiating tool. i totally get.

that's -- get that. but it is the one thing that worries me. let me just step back one second, stuart. you know, we have lived in the last -- ever since 2008 we've lived with this still -- stimulus economy. the fed is printing money, the government is handing out money. and what that does is it takes money from people who are more likely to save and invest, and it gives it the people that are more likely to consume. and so what's happened since 2007, consumption is up 60% and production is only up 10. so how -- if you're consuming more than you're producing, where do you with get it? well, you import it. and what's happened is our trade deficit has gone from $40 billion a month which was already too high to now $100 billion a month if, over a trillion dollars a year. and i think part of this push

for tariffs is coming because of the way we have managed our economy. stuart: yep. >> and i think the way you fix it isn't necessarily punishing other producers. we need the cut taxes on corporations, cut regulations and start producing more here. and i think that's what what we really should be focusing on, but i get it that that there's pressures out there, and trump is responding to them. stuart: leapt me just turn this around for a second is. if the tariffs stay in effect for, say, a month. a month-long trade war, what's the impact on the economy, in your opinion in. >> yeah. so if you add up china and mexico and canada and look at all their imports, it's about a 5% of gdp. all right in that's it. so let's just assume 5% of gdp prices go up 25%. well, that means the other 95% are normal, and we're not going to have that big of an impact on inflation, if any, at all because other prices will

probably go down. so that's number one. number two, we're not going to lose that full 5%. but i think it will slow the economy down a little bit. then we have to count on cutting spending and cutting taxes to -- and cutting interest rates the lift it in other places. so net-net i -- we're going to make it through this. i still expect a recession, but this is not the great depression. we're not in tbrow -- 2000, we're not in 2009. we'll have some pain, but we have to before we get to the gain. stuart: you've got 60 seconds to deal with this. hedge fund manager ray dalio, he says we're at a risk of an economic heart attack because no politician has a plan to get the deficit down, and and we've got a debt crisis. what what do you say, brian? >> i completely disagree with ray dalio on this. we have a plan to to get the deficit down. i mean, we're -- doge is doing it right now. we are taking back a lot of the green new deal, open-ended

spending plans. i think we're going to see the deficit down by a trillion dollars. it needs to come down further. tear going to have the make some really hard choices eventually many america. i don't know if trump's going to do it or not, but social security and medicare are a serious problem. but i do believe we're going there. this is not 2000, it's not 2009, it's not a heart attack, it's heart burn, let's put it that way. stuart: got it. brian wesbury, thanks for joining us this morning. interesting stuff, we appreciate it. thanks very much. the administration offered education department workers a $25,000 buyout to -- todd, when was the buyout? >> it was last night, midnight. come and gone. they had until last night after, of course, the fst being informed friday afternoon. as of yesterday afternoon, 137 workers of the more than 4,000

at the department have taken the offer, so we'll see if it groce once the final -- -- grows. stuart: 25 grand to walk what away. got it. coming up, trump is in tune with america. his policies are popular. the democrats will be out in the cold if they can't come up with common sense policies of their own. that will be my take, top of the hour. the supreme court set to hear argument as over whether mexico can sue american gun companies over the flow of guns to the cartels. do they have a case? we'll discuss after this. ♪ ♪

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stuart: the tariffs are in effect and all signs having their say. this justing to us, president trump post on truth social, canada doesn't allow american banks to do business in canada, but their banks flood the american market. okay, trump doesn't like that. mexico's president has said there's no justification for these tariffs, and we will hear from trudeau of canada at 10:30 ian this morning -- eastern this morning. the supreme court set the hear argument as over whether mexico can sue american gun companies. they claim these companies are responsible for the flow of weapons to the cartels. rich edson joins me. does mexico have any if legal standing here? >> reporter: well, stuart, this is the first supreme court

test of a 2005 law passed the shield the gun industry from liability. but there is a carveout to allowing lawsuits the move forward if gun manufacturers violate u.s. law are. well, the mexican government argues, quote,, by aiding and abetting violations of laws designed to to keep guns out of criminals' hands, petitioners' actions have predictably caused guns to fall into criminals' hands, and they have again predictably caused mexico harm. mexico argues u.s. gun makers market, design and embrace distribution practices that lead to military-style weapons ending up with cartels. mexico has very strict gun law, there's on one gun store in the whole country, yet it's usually one of the top three countries in gun deaths. they're not responsible for firearms sold legally in the u.s. >> the industry cooperates with law enforcement. it's a legal product, heavily regulated industry.

all the sales are licensed. the sale to the consumer is approved by the federal government. that that somehow through criminal acts guns are smugglinged into -- smuggled into mexico and misused by the cartels does not give rise to liability. >> reporter: mexico is suing for $10 billion. this is the primary retort to president trump's demands that mexico kohl flows of migrants and fentanyl -- control flows of migrants and fentanyl into the country. stuart? stuart: rich, thank you very much, indeed. to you, todd, thanks for sticking around for the hour. still ahead, border czar tom homan tells us his message to sanctuary city leaders who continue to defy the administration. christian whiton on trump pausing military aid to ukraine. the 10:00 hour is next. ♪ ♪

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