>> rick: back to ames and herman cain is on the stage. the way to solvet. you don't solve it by going to brazil and other countries saying that america is going to be their best customer. let me tell you what the cain doctrine will be. we will be our own best customer. drill holes, gas, all of our natural resources. [ cheers and applause ] >> measuring will be its own best customer. we have immigration crisis. one of the reasons that has been little progress on the whole immigration issue is because one of the things you learn as a business person and problem solver is making sure you are working on the right problem. in this case, we don't have one problem. we've got four problems.

this is how a cain administration will attack this problem of illegal immigration. first, secure the border! stop fooling around. secondly, promote the path to citizenship that is already there. let me tell you what the citizenship solution is foreimmigration. we have a path to citizenship. we don't need a new one. you know what it is? legal immigration is the path to citizenship! [ applause ] >> number three the third problem enforce the laws that are already there and number four, the federal government cannot and will not deal with

the illegals that are here in the country. i believe we should empower the states to let them deal with the illegals that are here in this country by empower the states to deal with their problem. we have a policy coming out of the washington, d.c. and administration. i have been criticized because i have not had any direct foreign policy experience. the guy we have there now has? [ laughter ] lep help me under that. i may not have extensive foreign policy experience but let me tell you what my approach to to foreign policy will be. number one, clearly identify who

our friend are, clearly identify who our enemies are and stop giving money to our enemies. [ applause ] number two, before i commit any of our brave men and women in uniform to go into war on behalf of this nation, i will make sure that the mission is clear. i will make sure that the definition of victory is clear and i will make sure that it is clear how it is in the best interests of the united states and that particular nation because if i send our men and women into war, they want to be in it to win it so it will be clear that is why we're there.

>> rick: herman cain competing in the iowa straw poll set place for this afternoon. cain obviously a charismatic figure that a lot supporters and he hopes in iowa, he says that he is qualified for the job because he has run a business. he was the ceo of a big chain rather an career politician. he says it's his strongest point. wrapping up the futures of all the gop hopefuls ahead in iowa. >> heather: and voting continues in iowa's straw poll. welcome to a brand-new hour in america's news headquarters. i'm heather childers. >> rick: and i'm rick folbaum. they are making their case, we heard from herman cain, the

first test in the republican field. for some candidates, it could be a make or break moment. >> heather: carl cameron is live in ames, iowa, definitely an exciting day. things are winding down with herman cain. give us the latest. herman cain never winds down. he is weingsd up. he has gotten more ovations than any candidate has preceded him. he was the ceo of burger king and godfather pizza and he ran for senate in georgia unsuccessfully. he says he is the only non-politician in the race. herman cain has a tough hill to climb because there is big name republican politicians who have been rocking the house. by all accounts, michele bachmann is the front-runner because of the wear she has been

able to capture so much attention in a shorted period of time. when she spoke earlier today everyone was watching for how she would interact with her closest nemesis in iowa, former governor of minnesota tim pawlenty. order to, they focused on the positives hoping to impress to give them a thumbs up vote which we expect the results in a couple of hours. >> as president of the united states, i will stand for life, i will stand for marriage, and i will stand for the right for you to keep the fruits of your own labor. [ applause ] >> i'm not going to stand up and give you the words. you can take it to the bank. i will restore america's promise and lead this country to a better, brighter and stronger place.

>> reporter: it's important to remember the straw poll is unofficial but the political relevance can't be understated. over the years, candidates who filed meet expectations have found their campaigns soon ended and candidates that have been laging in the polls, perhaps the thing that herman cain might be hoping for is type of ruckus and applause that can cat that poll them into the lead. there is, catapult them in lead but ron paul of texas spoke earlier today and also brought down the house. we are expecting 10,000 ballots to be cast and when they come up with the results, you'll here they're place light up, because by all accounts they become the front runner several months from now. >> heather: it's kind of rock concert type atmosphere to be there at the fair. everybody says ron paul will do well. what you are here there?

>> he has got a tremendous following that is very loyal around the country. over the course of the last two campaigns, this time and in 2008 when he picked a straw poll he wanted to concentrate on, he almost uniformly won it. he came in fifth four years ago but the truth of the matter there are a lot of folks in iowa think he can pull off a win. he may well have the numbers to do that. this straw poll really is considered the big part of the campaign but it comes at a time when several xiandz didn't compete. mitt romney, newt incident grip has been troubled in recent weeks. he, too, so the ballot and john huntsman is on the ballot but has had a made no effort to collected votes and sarah palin has visited iowa and rick perry

the governor of texas has jumped in the race on this day, the race is all new and outcome in a matter of hours will give somebody a huge boost, but they are going to be facing in new competition in remembering perry that will be here tomorrow. >> rick: there is a chance we could have a surprise winner in iowa. ron paul has a history of finishing strongly. as we have been saying, he could be a front run air and win could give his campaign a big momentum if he does pull it off. >> the country is moving in that direction. this has been reflected in the number of people that have joined the campaign. the east which we can raise money and organization we've had out here. so we can't helpful be a bit optimistic. >> rick: joining us is our

panel. in good to see you both. thanks for coming in. can he do it? >> that is a good question. he may have a very good apparatus at the iowa straw poll to pull it off. he very well could. we'll have to waited and see. nationally he is going face a struggle against the titans of the campaign, romney and perry. if ron paul does pull it off, it's going hurt michele bachmann and tim pawlenty is going to have to think whether he can stay in the campaign. >> rick: you know how important it is to have enthusiasm among the supporters. i'm in the chat rooms and i get a lot of e-mails from ron paul

fans. the level of enthusiasm for this guy is as high as anybody else out there. how important is that? >> well, it's very important especially in a state like iowa where you have a unique political organizing stairgs situation. it's a test of strength for the caucuses. this is a dry run for all the campaigns to see how many supporters they can actually turn out. i never saw anything like ron paul's campaign in 2008. you would see his bumper stickers and signs in most unlikely places, but i think his presence is louder than his base. i think a place like iowa is somewhere he could do well don't see him having the support even if he pulls off a win could be a serious contender nationally. >> rick: why is that. she makes a good point. he has this core base of supporters and yet he has never

won a caucus. he didn't win any delegates. how come he can't break through? >> first of all, he doesn't have the national organization set up to get the people out, get the money raised. second of all, his message caters to a very almost libertarian part of the republican party that is almost out of the mainstream republican establishment. he is going to get a core of support in iowa but nationally, he is not going to have that kind of following. >> rick: let me ask you as a democrat. is there a feeling -- i'm sure democrats would love to see a ron paul stay in this race for a long time thinking that they would have no problem that president obama against a ron paul in general election. are there any republicans competing in the straw poll or

rick perry who announced that he is in the race. does it strike fear in the hearts of democrats? >> no. you know six months i would have said tim pawlenty. he was the republican most feared a moderate governor from a swing state, kind of folksy, but he has run so far to the right according to tea party and proven to have not a successful campaign. i don't have any fear about him. none of these republicans strike me as a real threat to the president. even mitt romney, his flip-flopping over issues is going to turn off swing voters. i don't see the tea party base being energized. rick perry, i would love, to i don't know if i can stand to listen to him very long. he sounds like george bush and

both his policy positions. the more the merrier. >> i talk to a lot of politicians off the record. there are only one or two gop names out there who they really truly believe are electable. want to go on the record here and tell me, one or two or three or however many republican names you see out there who you honestly could beat president obama? >> president obama is so weak right now with the high unemployment rated and just low approval ratings across the country. there are a number of republicans, you could put a hand sandwich and come out good in the polls. mitt romney, rick perry could do very well. those are the two top. then i go down the list. >> chris: how about bachmann? >> she could do well in iowa.

>> rick: does she stand winning the nomination? >> the key here is democrats are worried about a candidate who can get independents to their side of the field. obama's approval for independents is at 31%. the candidate that can do that can win. michele bachmann who have to take her message and change it a little bit, not necessarily from her principles but her message have to appeal to independents than the core iowa straw poll data. >> rick: thank you for coming in as we wait for the results out of ames, iowa. hope to talk to you soon. stay tuned for all the straw poll results that are coming in. special installment of special report live at ames, starts at the top of the hour. that is all right here on the fox news channel.

>> heather: texas governor rick perry, making it official. you watched it live on fox, formally announcing his candidacy for president at the red state conference in south carolina. that is where we find jonathan. the governor did not mince words when it came to his criticism of president obama, did he? >> reporter: he said page 1 of sound economic policy involve issuing pink slips to residents of white house and received cheers from the crowd. he criticized the obama administration for relying to heavily on central planning for the economy. the obama campaign responded to perry's speech. it accused his policies of carbon copies of washington republicans. >> heather: so what solutions

did he offer? not just criticisms, we want to know what he would do. >> reporter: that is right. speaking of solutions, the top priority is job creation. he touted his record in texas over his 11 years. he has seen the creation of more than 900,000 new jobs in texas. he believes he can translate that nationally. he jokingly apologized for talking so much about his home state, but then had this to say. i'm a texan and i'm proud of it. but first, and foremost i am incredibly proud american. [ applause ] >> i know something. america is not broken. washington, d.c. is broken. >> reporter: now, governor perry wants to go to washington, d.c. he says to fix it. >> heather: we'll see if he makes it there.

thank you. >> rick: it could be a make or break moment for some of the gop candidates as thousands of iowans are casting their ballots in the crucial iowa straw poll. we'll have more up to the minute live coverage coming up next. >> exciting stuff. >> plus, after three years on the job market, on the job no another planet. mars rover makes a groundbreaking discovery. >> we'll tell you about that. gas prices are going down. that is a good thing but even better days could be ahead. what it could mean for the economy and your wallet coming up. you could save a bundle with geico's multi-policy discount. geico, saving people money on more than just car insurance.

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>> rick: a american that was kidnapped. u.s. embassy identifying the man as war right hand weinstein. they say he development contractor over in pakistan. >> germany marking 50 years since the construction of berlin wall. the mayor saying the construction must serve as a constant reminder to stand up for freedom and democracy. the wall came down in 1989. mars rover completing a three-year journey from one part of mars to another, ending up at a massive crater scientists say that shows evidence of water. >> heather: americans getting welcome relief at the gas pump. national average price for a

gallon of regular is now $3.60 that is down 9 cents a week ago. they expect to see gas prices drop 50 cents a gallon that translates to $70 a month for the average family of four. what could this mean for the economy and your bottom line? gerri willis is anchor of the willis report and joins us again. first of all, who do we have to thank for this? we would like to say thank you. >> we have a big market sell-off. gas pricing down. crude closing below $85 a barrel that is good news. for folks who are buying gas week to week and paying a whole lot, that means gas prices are going down. my sources are telling me, 10-15 cents, maybe as much as 25 by labor day. a little hope that are dealing

with 9.1% unemployment and food rising higher and higher. >> heather: definitely in the summertime, you expect gas prices to go up and holidays you are traveling, it can happen that way. do you see this trend continuing after labor day? >> i'm not sure. we're seeing prices come down a little bit here as we go into labor day which is good news. if you are going to be driving on the holiday, beyond that it's anybody's guess. >> it's translating to other areas. when people hit the road, does that mean we have more positive outcomes in other areas. >> it's a good thing. people spend money. there are other things that people are worried about. what you hear is austerity, servicing thinking about pinch

ago penny and what to do next. if you look at the consumer sentiment numbers drove the market lower. they are nervous as they have been since 1981 when carter was president. and once in 2008 when we had the big market meltdown. >> but things are up slightly, $360 billion last month? >> the numbers for retail higher show people shopping in electronics and variety of categories. this is the last four weeks. these are people reacting to the news in realtime. they remain nervous. i'm sure they be happy to see the gas prices come down. that is something you have to spend on screnl, you can't not spend not to go to school or go to the grocery store. that is good news. it's a group of problems people are trying to fight off right

now. >> heather: we appreciate you as always. >> rick: we can tell you you can watch the willis report week nights at 5:00 p.m. on fox business. good see you, thanks very much. president obama is preparing to award the first medal of honor for service in iraq and afghanistan wars. recognizing the soldier's bravery in a battle with the taliban, peter die doo si has the story. >> heavy machine-gun fire did not stop him from saving 15 injured afghan soldiers and recovering the bodies of four bodies of americans. he repeatedly exposed himself to enemy fire. as he repairs to receive the highest honor, he wants to make sure that the focus stays on those that didn't make it off

the battlefield. >> the price to pay, but it's not for me. the guys and their families. >> being on that team was important to him. i don't want people to misconstrue this at all. >> reporter: the come an can't of the marine corps, he is living example of the service and fidelity make us so proud. -- >> reporter: he will be the first living marine to receive the medal of honor for his

actions that will happen on september 15th. >> heather: thank you very much. coming up. she vanished while riding her bike. it's major developments to fell you about in the desperate search for this three-year-old girl. >> rick: also a big win for opponents of the president's health care law. why a federal appeals court says that the centerpiece of that law is unconstitutional.

zbleetsd time for top of the news, big day for the straw poll scheduled to wrap up 30 minutes from now. >> rick: the crowd of gop contenders, rick perry making his candidacy official quickly

taking aim at the president. calling obama's leadership rudderless. >> heather: and they have a suspect in custody in the disappearance of little girl. they say it's someone who lives in the local area and is not a relative. >> rick: major step back for the white house, supreme court ruling that the healthcare law is unconstitutional, saying the government can't force americans to buy health insurance, jim has more on this. >> reporter: the length circuit court of appeals struck the most serious blow yet ruling that the requirement that everyone must buy health insurance, individual mandate is unconstitutional. >> a stunning defeat for the obama administration today. one most significant case that has been brought to date primarily because it involves more than half of the states

suing the federal government. >> reporter: six states had joined in the suit led by florida including a clinton appointee. they declared it unconstitutional and did so with unusually pointed language, quote, this economic mandate makes a holy novel and potentially unbounded assertion of congressional authority. ability to compel americans to purchase an extensive health insurance product they have elected not to buy and to repurchase that insurance product every month for their entire lives. the decision said congress did have the power to enact other parts of the law, but the white house issued a statement on the decision saying, quote, we are confident it will not stand. individual responsibility provision the main part of the law at issue in these cases is constitutional. the obama administration has always argued that the mandate was essential that without it the rest of the law would not

work. it will not have to rely on the supreme court to decide the matter. listen. >> i can't even imagine the obama administration would want to hear the supreme court to hear it at this point losing end of the case, with 26 states saying this is unconstitutional and federal circuit court agreeing with them. >> reporter: that is why many analysts believe there is hundred percent likelihood the supreme court will hear the case perhaps this fall with a decision next year in the middle of a presidential election campaign. >> as if we wouldn't have enough excitement with the election. >> reporter: it was complicated enough already. good to see you. >> heather: republicans are pulling out all the stops at ames, iowa. we have heard from nearly gop

hopeful that was there but outside candidate are using free goodie give aways to pull voters their way. steve broen brown is reporting. >> we're back at the straw polling. you can have in the actual balloting, two kind of winners. this line symbolizes, most common kind. they are standing in line at bachmann tent to get what is called a meat sundae. they put beef on top of mashed potatoes. bachmann tent, it's air-conditioned. they spent a lot of money. there high expectation. it's believed she could win the most votes here. rick santorum, a little more modest display. he could be another kind of winner. santorum spent single digits but

because he has worked hard spent a lot of time in iowa there are a lot of folks might punch a ticket for rick san for am. i have seen predictions he could finish as high as fourth which is much higher than he is in standard polling. he could claim a moral victory. santorum you wouldn't expect to do well but he could claim a victory. bachmann picks a win, she could claim a traditional type of victory. we could have two types of victories out of straw poll. >> heather: thank you very much. i like those meat sundae's. >> a destroyer has a new mission below the surface. the u.s.s. radford was part of artificial reef and fox news was there.

julie banderas is there with more on this. >> julie: it spent 26 years in active service beginning in 1977 named for the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff for president eisenhower, it traveled the world and saw action in beirut. new mission is to help create an artificial reef off the coast of the u.s. it took eight years to plan the sinking of the former destroyer as part of the delaware's artificial reef program. in just three hours, it was gone. 130 feet below the waters of the coast of new hampshire, delaware and maryland after it was water came in, it slipped beneath the surface gave off a few waterspouts setting off applause and cheers. ex-crew members happy she wasn't

being scrapped but seeing her go was bittersweet. >> it's sad to see her go in this way, but it's also glad to see her go because now i won't be drinking out of cans that were made out of her. >> it's interesting that we're here to watch her be sunk when we spent so many months she wasn't sunk in other ways. she now has a role to continue. >> julie: and in total, the project cost almost $1 million and took 14 months to strip her down to the structure on wednesday. >> rick: we thank you for her service and wish her well. julie banderas, thanks so much. >> heather: extreme weather to tell you about. amazing images, this was on

cellphone camera, a violent storm knocking down power lines, creating flashes of light there. crews in the city of broken arrow, they worked throughout the night to restore power. molly henneberg is live with more -- maria molina is live in the weather center. parts of oklahoma now severe wets but we needed the rain out of oklahoma. some of that rain moved southbound into the state of texas where we are seeing areas, 15 inches of rain being normal levels. we did get some of the much needed rain today. most of the rain has fizzled and light areas of drizzle. some areas did pick up 7 inches of rain locally. that is a little bit of good news. light at the end of the tunnel. hopefully we have more coming up after that.

storm system spinning over the great lakes. including the city of chicago, until 7:00 p.m. local time. strong storms heading eastbound and we will be looking for concerns out here from some of these storms, damaging wind gusts. there is a slight risk for tornadoes but that should not be a big concern. as far as today we are looking at highs in the 90s in parts of a texas and bit of a cooldown. we are looking at sweep of triple-digits across the area. otherwise, headed eastbound into the atlantic but we do have tropical storm franklin which is really no threat to anybody just over the open atlantic, sustained winds at 45 miles an hour. we have cooler waters but a there are other areas, for tropical development across the atlantic. tropics are heating up. three tropical waves that watching for potential to be

tropical depressions in the next 48 hours. otherwise, texas expecting dry conditions as we head into next week and back to triple-digit heat. >> and a little bit cooler. thank you very much, maria, we appreciate it. >> rick: look at that cute puppy at the center of a legal challenge. our legal panel weighs in, what this dog was doing that had lawyers very upset. don't go away. have i got a surprise for you! a mouthwatering combination of ingredients... i know you're gonna love. [ barks ] yes, it's new beneful healthy fiesta. made with wholesome grains, real chicken, even accents of tomato and avocado. yeah! come on! [ barking ]

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>> heather: new controversy

surrounding on service. a. >> rick: the dog that looked like this dog sat as the feet as she struggled to row count the story. father's lawyer is appealing the conviction that rosie's presence influenced the jurors. joins us is fox news analysts. good to see you. >> you got a problem with this dog helping this young girl helping her feel comfortable about testifying. assuming that, it's within the discretion of the court. there are guidelines that have to be met by what we call clear and convincing this evidence this was to be the proper foundation was used. i know right now, it seems pretty extreme in the long run it will be common place because

other states have it. some appellate courts have upheld it. some have reversed it but i think it's a thing of the future. in the law, we'll have to wait and see. >> rick: so our folks understand, this was a dog there to colonel could for the this little girl that she had to recount difficult things. when she started to pause or to get uncomfortable, the dog sensed that and was able to sort of give her a negligent to hip her feel confident and comfortable enough to speak. i guess the problem this is a cute puppy, folks in the jury going to be charmed by the presence of the dog to the point it could include their decision? >> i think it's a good point. defense attorneys are trying to do this because there is 25 years to life that the man is facing for conviction but ultimately the jury jer is going to follow the letter of the law. there are so many instructions,

no sympathy, you have follow the letter of law. case in point, casey anthony, how many emotions were swirling around and yet the jury followed the letter of the law and said the prosecutors didn't meet their burden. i can't imagine the jurors were swayed one way or the other. but the young girl and she was raped repeatedly. that is what convicted this man. into the dog. >> heather: so the difference is the service dog they have long been allowed in courtrooms. this use of this dog, she sat at the feet of this young girl and nudged her when she was stressed is that how it worked? >> absolutely. the dog was underneath the feet so the dog on noticed she was stressed if the dog nudged her along but it didn't change her testimony. she is sworn to testify under

oath. it was most compelling. >> rick: so what about mercedes argument? we give jurors more credit, they are going to follow their instructions, but it doesn't matter what kind of cute animal is in the witness stand. >> there is a federal law that was passed in 2002 that addressed the fact that victims of these types of crimes can assisted in the courtroom. up to this time adults have assisted there to comfort young victims also been cases where children have brought in dolls and little teddy bears to give a sense of security. there has been an evolution here. i tell you what it raises for me. it will be interesting on picking a jury. if you are a prospective juror, how do i know you are not afraid of dogs? you may be allergic to dogs. as crazy as it sounds it will be up to the lawyers to ask jurors

these questions if in fact it's been agreed to through different hearings that the dog is going to be used. there are a lot of other side shows on the issue what is going to happen on appeal here? >> i think ultimately the appellate court looks down to see if the judge abused her discretion. there is a wide range to exercise discretion, probably would be affirmed unless they feel the fifth amendment was impinged. >> i think bob is right. i don't think they have a prayer. >> rick: good to see you both. >> take care. >> interesting case. >> we are minutes away of closing the straw poll in ames, iowa. who will claim victory in the first big test. we'll have that answer just ahead. >> and should the government

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>> rick: couple minutes away from results of the iowa straw poll. but brand-new numbers taking the pulse of nation. >> according to rasmussen poll, 66% of american adults believe the u.s. economy is headed in the wrong direction. much more on that is scott rasmussen, thanks for joining us. >> heather, it's great to be with you. i think those were investors that we polled but the investors these days the beginning of the year they were evenly divided the economy getting better or worse but now, 12% say better.

68% say worse. so we asked investors what they would do with new investment money. more people said they would put it in a savings account than in the stock market. >> heather: is that an all-time low? >> investor confidence hit an all-time low. consumer confidence hit the lowest. we are talked about very depressed states of economy. people have lost confidence in our financial system. >> rick: i want to ask you. after the triple "a" downgrade by s&p. they started calling this the tea party downgrade by democratic lawmakers. they said the reason the tea party insistence there were no tax increases. what did people say? >> we first off asked people who do you trust more the average tea party member or average

member of congress. 42% said tea party members, 34% said a member of congress. if you are a tea party being compared to a member of congress and coming on top isn't that big deal, 6% think congress is doing a good job these days. number who picked the tea party is down. everybody involved in the debt ceiling debate looking bad this time around. >> rick: so the tea party numbers has that criticism stuck? >> 29% say it's fair to call them economic terrorists. it's very popular among majority of democrats. it hasn't stuck around unaffiliated voters but they trust a tea party member over congress. >> heather: time to head back to school. a little help from the government for parents. what are they doing on that. >> 58% say it would be great to have a sales tax holiday.

17 states are doing that. this is a tough time of the year for parents when the economy has been stalling for three years, they have to spend 40% of parents say they will end up spending more than they do on back-to-school supplies than last year. >> heather: thanks. and teachers spending a lot of money to head back to class. >> rick: catch scott on a special show on iowa straw polls 3:00 streaming live online at rasmussenreports.com and you can ask scott questions. >> heather: that does it for us. brett baier has a special report from iowa with results of the straw poll. >> we'll see you tomorrow 4:00. take care everybody. [ man ] behind every business is a "what if."

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the most buzz revolves around michelle bachman whose supporters were a huge presence at the outdoor circus that is the straw poll before the votes are cast. after the criticism she's received from all her rivals, a victory here affirms her status as a top tier candidate. >> whether we are tea party or social conservative or fiscal conservative or national security conservative, we stick

together and this will happen. >> this is it for tim pawlenty. aides said if he doesn't come in second or third, they'll have to take a look at whether he can go forward. he delivered for tim pawlenty what was a stem winder of a speech. >> the message for him today from us and from all across this country is mr. president, get the government off our backs! >> he built a strongest poll organization, but ron paul has had the most devout and loyal following in straw polls all year. >> we're into wars that are costing us trillions of dollars. those trillions of dollars should have been left in the economy to build jobs and produce prosperity here at home. >> rick santorum has been making lots of noise with a family tour over the entire state of iowa. having barely shown up in public polls for months, he's hoping for fourth. >> i will not back down on the sanctity of life and the integrity of the american family

>> herman cain is always a crowd pleaser. >> i have been criticized because i have not had any direct foreign policy experience. and the guy we have there now has? [ laughter ] >> the sixth candidate speaking was that had husband mccotter trying to get noticed mcthe visible wannabes. two major republicans are not on the ballot. sarah palin has backers here, recruiting for write-in votes, and rick perry supporters are pushing hard. he announced his candidacy earlier this afternoon in south carolina. for months republicans across the country have been expressing dissatisfaction with the field, hoping there would be more to choose from. it looks like now with the 2011 straw poll soon to be in the history books, the field is near complete that perry will be in

iowa to show his face and begin his campaign in the first caucus state. >> carl, don't go anywhere, we'll be checking in throughout the two hours for anything you have. for many of you, however, the most important question today is what is a straw poll? why is it so important? steve brown has some answers. good afternoon. >> good afternoon. the straw poll by design is a win-win for the iowa republican party. it allows the party to collect a little cash and flex its muscle at the very same time. the straw poll is a huge prepresidential election year fund-raiser for the iowa republican party. tickets are $30 per person, but it's the gop campaign's for the white house that usually pay. need a bus ride to it? they'll pay for that and much more. >> campaigns go out and buy lots of ticket, they get them to their supporters, they get them

there, feed them a sandwich and get them to vote. >> it's those votes of straw poll goers in a informal manner that can lift or punish a candidate. four years ago, mitt romney crew cruised to a victory. mike huckabee, stole the show, finishing a surprise second. sam brownback came in third. two months later, he left the race. another thing about straw poll votes, just because a candidate has an iowa straw poll vote today does not mean he or she will get that vote come caucus time. >> many activists are in the dating phase as opposed to marrying phase. but what it does for the campaigns is identifies who those true leaders will be for you in the february caucuses. >> rick: after his second place finish, huckabee went on to win the republican caucus. >> for better or worst, the straw poll is in some ways replaced the caucuses themselves. the purpose of the caucuses was to whittle the field of

candidates, elevate some out of obscurity and being an organizational test. the straw poll now in august is doing the same thing. >> if you look today, it's hard to believe this was a small backyard barbecue with just a few dozen people in 1979. because presidential candidates do come here and they do compete, it's arguable that you could say iowa actually gets first in the nation twice at the presidential candidates, once at the straw poll, again at the caucuses. brett? >> bret: all right, thank you. as steve mentioned, three years ago, iowa was a big part of the presidential campaign of former arkansas governor mike huckabee. now he's come over to our side of the fence as a fox news host, but he has valuable insight, obviously, into what we're experiencing this week. welcome, governor. >> great to be with you. >> bret: you feel like you want to be back in this thing? >> i am. but in a different capacity. this is a good way to be in it. to be able to see very good candidates work their tails off,

to try to make a difference here on this particular day, to break out of the pack, to show that they've got the stuff to go all the way, and that's what the straw poll does. it raises a lot of money for the gop in iowa. people can criticize it for that. but it is a separation of the wheat and the chaff. >> bret: you went to a number of different campaign stops today, different tents and played with some different bands. >> i had a lot of fun. there was no pressure on me to get votes today. so i was able to go and just enjoy the atmosphere, which really is -- this is a remarkable place for political junkies. it's got everything. food, it has political speeches, it has the appearance of a county fair, a political convention, and a side show, all wrapped into one great big day. >> bret: the last time here, what prosecute you doing at this point? >> i was very anxious to see the results because we knew that the turnout would determine where we were. i was in a position very much like tim pawlenty was in four -- i was in it four years ago where he is today. somebody was going to come out

of this thing on their way. someone was going o come out on their way out. and it was a turning point for tommy thompson, hunter, and sam brownback, whom within a month of the straw poll had basically walked away from the campaigns and shut them down. there will be people who, after this, it will be days, maybe weeks, but today will be a day that they'll have to say, it probably isn't going to happen for me this time. >> bret: do you think there is two tickets out of the straw poll or more? >> there could be three. but the reality is while someone still could maybe recover, this event causes people who are in that donor pool to decide, are they going to finance someone. if they see somebody catching fire, they'll put gas on that fire. if they see somebody who is flamed out, they'll pour some water on it and cool it off and call it a day. so that's why this event is not insignificant. i've called it the most important meaningless event in politics. it's important because it really does matter how a candidate performs. it's meaningless not from a

strategic standpoint. it's meaningless in terms that it doesn't affect one vote toward the nomination process. >> bret: anecdotally and with a comparison to your time here, look at the turnout so far today, where do you think it stands? does it benefit somebody or somebody else? >> it looks a little big today. it was around 10,000 people who voted four years ago. i'm hearing numbers that could get to 14, 15,000. if that's the case, i see a couple of people probably benefitting. ron paul probably does better with maybe a slightly larger crowd. i think it probably maybe indicates michelle bachman with some strength. i've been interested to see, tim pawlenty has a very devoted core of followers here. he put a lot of effort in it. he's poured his heart and soul. he's got a lot at stake. as does rick santorum because rick santorum has pretty much camped here for a month with his family and he's got to show -- he doesn't have to win.

he doesn't even have to come in one, two, or three. he just has to show he's getting out of the lower tier position. if he can do that, he might can at least get his footing. >> bret: we're in august here and the caucuses probably going to shift to january, end of january. that's a long time between now and then. it seems the people sitting at home, how is somebody going to get ruled out of this thing with that much time to go? >> life isn't fair. i can tell you, it's not fair. i would love to have said four years ago, hey, i'm just raising lots of money. but it was very difficult for me because there was still perceptions that i couldn't win. i wish politics were about the policies, but they're not. politics is about people's perceptions of who is going to win and it's not a very pure process. again, i wish it was. most political donors don't give because that guy stands for what i stand for. they say i want to make sure i

get invited to the cool stuff and maybe get a seat at some special event. sadly, our system has the generate -- degenerated into a money chase more than an idea chase. it's one of the reasons i'm sitting in this chair today and not out there as one of the candidates. >> bret: governor, if you'll stick around, i want to ask you about the newest entrant into this whole race. stay with us. as carl mentioned, there is another candidate who is not here. a lot of people are talking about him. so will we, right after the break. >> a lot of the focus is on the at the present times, listening to the bands. but the really big deal is right behind me. voting, you go up there and vote. once you cast your vote, ballots here next week, put your thumb up, you get the thumb print. it's like a rock. but ames, iowa, we'll be right back after the break. [ dad ] i'm usually checking up on my kids.

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will be filled as they announce the winners here at the iowa straw poll. not all the campaign news took place here in ames today, as we told you a moment ago. one man who is expected to make a big splash in this race made his move today. 1200 miles away. texas governor rick perry is now officially a candidate. jonathan was there for the announcement. good afternoon. >> hi. they say everything is bigger in texas. well, here at the red state gathering in south carolina, conservative bloggers and activists gave the texas governor some big cheers. >> it is time to get america working again and that's why with the support of my family and unwavering belief in the goodness of america, i declare to you today as a candidate for president of the united states! >> after serving 11 years as governor of texas, rick perry has his eye set on the biggest office in the land and with conservative rhetoric, he's

honed over his political career, he made it known at the red state gathering in charleston, south carolina. >> we do not have to accept our current circumstances. we will change them. we are americans! [ cheers and applause ] that's what we do. we roll up our sleeves. we go to work. we fix things. >> texas, a state with no income tax, gain gained more jobs overe last decade. he will have to convince voters that his state's economic success can translate nationally. but with 27 years in elected office, perry may encounter resistance from some conservatives skeptical of career politicians. >> i think there are people that have been leading that can earn the support of the tea party. not necessarily be disqualified only because they hold office. >> last week, perry led what was billed as a call to prayer for a

nation in crisis. the event in houston rankled church-state separationists but rallied the social conservative base. in a fox news poll taken nearly a week prior to his formal announcement, perry placed second only to mitt romney who has been campaigning since june. perry is on a speaking tour that started friday night in alabama and now off to new hampshire and iowa where his campaign begins in earnest. >> page 1 of any economic plan to get america working is to give a pink slip to the current residents in the white house. [ cheers and applause ] >> now, it's still too soon to measure how much the governor's decision to announce in south carolina will steal the spotlight from candidates in the straw poll in iowa or how much it may alienate future caucus goers in the hawkeye state. bret? >> bret: jonathan live in south carolina. thank you.

former arkansas governor mike huckabee rejoins me. governor rick perry is in. how does that shake up this race, number one? number two, does it matter that he's not here in ames and debate thursday night? >> it changes the race in that you have a very strong candidate coming in. he'll have lots of money. he's the governor of a large state. he'll have a lot of grassroot support not just from texas, but attracted to the tea party and fighting with michelle bachman to be able to sort of garner that and become the candidate of the tea party. here is the challenge: he made this decision on the day when the centre of the political universe is not in south carolina. it's in ames, iowa. the press a team, the varsity from every news organization of the world is here today. he has made this announcement with basically the b team coverage. he shares what ever announcement he made with the bigger story of what's going on in ames. it seems to me that that was a tactical error. i know people will say, i'm --

i'm one of the people saying that. he's smart, he took away the steam of it. but he also took the steam from what could have been his solo appearance on the stage for his announcement. >> bret: he's coming here sunday, tomorrow? >> yes. >> bret: do people in iowa, do they feel slighted that you don't come to the big dance in ames? >> they do. and as i talked to people all across the grounds today, there are people who feel like why would you sort of rain on our parade? this is our big day. make the announcement in iowa. do it tomorrow. but it may be that his strategy is that he's not intending to really play hard in the caucuses. maybe his intent is to say i'll let iowa go and new hampshire go and i'll meet you in south carolina. but running for president is a marathon. most everybody would like to pick the mile in which they would start and make it mile, 7, 7, or ten. but you start on mile one. mile one in the presidential marathon is iowa.

>> bret: but you contend he will be a force? >> absolutely. he will be a strong candidate from the moment he gets in. but he'll also walk in with a target on his back. mitt romney can't allow him to come up on his flank. then you've got tim pawlenty and bachman and cane and the others who can't allow him to just occupy the space. he's going to catch it from all sides the moment he's stepping off that announcement stage. be prepared to see some serious things starting to be hurled at him as of tomorrow. >> bret: governor huckabee, as always, thank you. >> great to be here. >> bret: i think i'll come on your show. >> that's right. a little later we'll be broadcasting live from the campus at iowa state. i've got really, really biggests primarily bret baier. >> bret: 8:00 p.m. eastern for huckabee. i'll answer some questions from the governor. thank you very much. we'll hear from president obama when we come back to our special coverage of the iowa straw poll from ames, iowa.

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>> bret: welcome back to ames, iowa. you can see the area where all the reporters are working. lots of reporters and tv personnel from all over the world actually. 800 reporters are credentialed for the straw poll here. we're getting word about the counting. steve brown is reporting that the voting is stopped, obviously. but they are counting as fast as they can. they believe the folks here at the ames straw poll that 45 to 90 minutes from now they'll be able to have an official count of the winner of this career's straw poll. so you will see that live here on "special report." the man all these people want to see replaced, president obama, stayed away from directly

criticizing republicans in his saturday address. instead, mike emmanuel reports, he went after everyone in congress. >> with the economy expected to be the key issue of the 2012 campaign, president obama encouraged the american people in his weekly address to give members of congress back in their districts an ear full. >> if you've had it with gridlock and you want them to pass stalled bills that will help our economy right now, let them know. >> but republican senator pat toomey from pennsylvania says the struggling economy isn't congress' fault. >> clearly the policies of this administration are not working. so what went wrong? well, a big part of the problem has been job killing regulations. >> today the president also emphasized a point he and his team have been making. >> let's finish trade deals so we can sell more american made goods around the world. >> send a message to congress to pass bills that will open markets to our businesses. >> there are things that we can do together that have bipartisan

support, that could create jobs right away, including passage of the free trade agreement. >> the problem is the white house hasn't sent them to congress with the relevant language. that seemed to catch a white house spokesman off guard when he was asked about it. he said, quote, i don't -- have we not sent them over? he was told no. he responded, well, i know that there has been, and there was laughter. senate republican leader mitch mcconnell told fox republicans agreed to a white house request to help american workers who lose their jobs to foreign trade. quote, the administration has received everything it is publicly asked for on trade adjustment assistance. it's time to show they're serious about creating jobs and getting these deals done. congressional sources say the white house has been assured that the three trade deals will pass with support from democrats and at least a dozen republicans. but that is after the actual documentation is sent to congress to ratify.

bret? >> bret: mike emmanuel live on the north lawn. thank you. we will check back in with carl cameron, we'll talk to chris wallace, as we await the results from the iowa straw poll, maybe in 45 minutes. we'll see you just after this break. ♪ [ male announcer ] this is our beach. ♪ this is our pool. ♪ our fireworks. ♪ and our slip and slide. you have your idea of summer fun, and we have ours. now during the summer event get an exceptionally engineered mercedes-benz for an exceptional price. but hurry, this offer ends august 31st. for an exceptional price. but thieves can steal your identity, turning your life upside down in a matter of seconds. hi. hi, you know, i can save you 15% today if you open up a charge card account with us. you just read my mind.

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tents. welcome back to ames, iowa, site of the iowa straw poll. let's bring back carl cameron. carl? >> we've had a lot of attention on who is on the ballot. but because the race changed, it seems appropriate to talk about one candidate who is writing as a write-in. we have bob shoeman, the boss of the group, americans for berry, you have been on the ground in the first caucus straw poll state for weeks getting ready. how is he going to do tonight? >> it's a little hard to say. this is the first time they've ever allowed write ins. so we're not sure. but we think if we get 150, 200 votes, we've done well. >> which would be small. let me ask you this, you were once an official at an operative here in the iowa republican party, now you're in california. but here working on the campaign for the caucus. texans historically have been called times too much swagger, one of the criticisms. how will it play in iowa?

>> i think he'll do well. the great thing about perry is that he really believes in what he says. and what his plans are. he speaks both from the heart and from the head. he doesn't need a poll to tell him what to do. i think that was obvious in his announcement. i think when he starts meeting these iowaances, he'll do great. >> the straw poll is a popular dance and he skipped t. there are going to be some repercussions. what does he need to do to patch things up? >> there was a practical reason. there wasn't enough time to get here. we couldn't get a location. they wouldn't let us have a tent in the parking lot. i think what he has to do is get up here as often as he can, meet as many people as he possibly can. i think they'll resonate to his messenger. >> obviously he announced in south carolina, but next stop is the first in the nation primary of new hampshire where texans historically have not done so well. george w. bush lost there. phil gramm never got to the starting line there. too much texas swagger for the

yankee libertarian? >> i don't think so. i think he has enough of a libertarian streak that he'll do well. but it is a state that abuts massachusetts, romney's home state. but i think he does well there. >> does this become a two-man battle between mr. romme and mr. perry? >> i think so. i think by the time they come out of florida, it's a two-horse race. >> if bachman or others who were to join, obviously a third person deeply involved, how does he stack up against michelle bachman? >> i think he stacks up really well. in this regard, i love michelle bachman. i love what she did for the party last time. i would love to see her do it again. help us expand our majority in the house. help us take over the senate. i would love to see her stay in the house. >> that's what you really mean, stay in the house. bob, americans for perry, thank you very much. so he'll be here tomorrow and we're waiting now to find out who won today on what is obviously the most consequential straw poll on the campaign thus far. bret? >> bret: very interesting. carl, thank you very much. as carl mentioned, we're waiting

word on results of today's voting. could be within the next 45 minutes to an hour. while we wait, let's talk with fox news sunday host chris wallace. welcome. you were looking at numbers from past caucuses. what about those? >> very interesting. in 2007, the last time they did this, 14,000 people showed up. that was a relatively low turnout. but by comparison in 1999, the previous straw poll, 23,000 showed up when george w. bush won. so it can go from 14,000 four years ago to 12 years ago with 23,000. in each case, the winner won with 31% of the vote. exactly. 31%. bush won with 7500. romney won with 4500. interesting fact, the bachman people have put out word that they have given out, as he pointed out that, a lot of people are paying for the 30-dollar ticket so people with vote in the straw poll that they

paid and given out 6,000 tickets. if she gets 6,000 votes, she's almost a sure winner. we were talking with mike huckabee. maybe he wouldn't admit this on camera, but i will. what the heck. we said to him back in 2007, 'cause he didn't have is a lot of money. did some of his voters come in on other tickets? absolutely. he said a lot of people came on sam brownback's buses and voted using mitt romney's ticket. so the fact that she's giving out 6,000 tickets doesn't mean she'll get 6,000 votes. >> bret: sure. i should point out, the past straw poll numbers, i didn't mean caucus numbers when i asked you that. people can shift around, is the bottom line. they're not tied to the people that show up at the tent? >> absolutely. you can get a ticket. it's the american way. you can get a 30-dollar ticket from one candidate and vote for somebody entirely different. >> bret: what about michelle bachman? obviously she's pretty confident about her stance here and thinks she's going to win. she has bookings tomorrow. >> i was going to say, let's do

inside baseball. everybody, because she's been leading in the poll, all the sunday shows want michelle bachman and she has committed to doing five sunday shows tomorrow. everybody, obviously she thinks she's going to be there to talk about the fact that she won, and that's what we have no reason to think she's not going to win. if she doesn't, it will be five interviews about what happened. this could either be a real springboard for her campaign or a real difficult day for her. >> bret: we've talked about the importance of this event and how it translates here in iowa. but people listening to those up ins, 7500, 10,000, say wait a second. why is this so important? >> well, that's right. it's 'cause we're all here, we're all covering it. and it will be the big political story, although rick perry has done something to step on it 'cause he'll be here in iowa tomorrow. turnout is awfully important. i will say this: bachman doesn't have the strong an organization as some of the other people.

she just got into the campaign less than a month ago. she doesn't have is a lot of boots on the ground. ron paul has a very strong organization. tim pawlenty has spent over a million dollars, very strong organization. if turnout is low, the tim pawlenty people and the paul people will deliver their supporters. if turnout is big, which just means a lot of iowans who haven't been contacted have watched the fox debate, following in the campaign and want to get involved, most people think that will favor michelle bachman. >> bret: you come back for the results? >> absolutely. >> bret: all right. we'll see you then. our special iowa straw poll all star panel will join me in a moment to talk about the impact of today's vote on the race as the music changed from country to -- what is this? all the single ladies. stay with us. >> this is congresswoman washman. -- bachman. the process is to get people in. you get your picture i.d., you come here to these lovely ladies and gentlemen and fill out the

paperwork, you head inside. you can hear the what happened playing in there. they're trying to get people to vote. we'll be right back after the break. ♪ [ jim ] i need to push out a software upgrade. build a new app for the sales team in beijing. and convince the c.e.o. his email will find him... wherever he is. i need to see my family while they're still awake. [ malennouncer ] with global services from dell, jim can address his company's i.t. needs through custom built applications, cloud solutions and ongoing support in over 100 countries. so his company sees results. and jim sees his family. dell. the power to do more.

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>> we can get out of this trouble by respecting the rule of law and sending only people to washington who know and understand and will obey the constitution! >> bret: few of the candidates speaking here in the auditorium trying to get those last minute votes in this all-important straw poll. for today and how it's shaping up, here is our panel. steve haste, senior writer for the weekly standard. karen, national political correspondent for the "washington post." and jeff, national political correspondent for the "new york times." steve, anecdotally, what are you hearing? what's it feel like? >> there is an incredible amount of support here for michelle bachman. the line to her tent from early this morning when i got here at 10:00 a.m. throughout the entire day has been long, sometimes the wait was more than an hour just to get into her tent and talk to people. >> bret: i'm going to interrupt you. i went over there. it's one at a time. you have to sign the thing and it's not -- true.

>> bret: the tim pawlenty where you walk through the gate. you have to register. maybe that's why the line was so long. >> but the amount of people spilling out of her tent. >> i think looking around, this is not a scientific way of doing it. but looking at the number of supporters, the people wearing her purple bracelets, all of the things suggest that she's going to have a very good result. >> we hit that line at different times and i was there at lunchtime and people were standing in line for two hours. and the campaign was running ice cream out to them and hot dogs and water and people were in just a great mood, even though they had been out in the sun for two hours. and i was struck at hard nosed they were about this. they would register people, send them out to vote, and tell them, come back and listen to randy travis after you vote. >> bret: dangle it out? >> the point is not come and eat the free food. it's come and cast your vote.

you saw a lot of pollennation. a lot of ron paul people eating herman cain eating the pizza. what's interesting about the bachman line, i agree with you, it's very long. they were getting people who they didn't know were coming. so they were collecting their information. for the last week at her event, that was not always happening. so what they're using this for is an organizing tool for the caucuses a few months from now in early january. that's one of the reasons the line was long. they were asking everything. >> bret: if you were an alien who landed on this planet and you went to this and this is the political process, dairy queen blizzards and godfather's pizza and barbecue, we would have to explain. >> i am a total sucker for this thing. i love everything about this process. i love everything about iowa. you hear a lot of complaints from people, i would argue on the coast, that iowa has an outside rule in the process. i think just the opposite.

how often do you hear from people in the midwest express their views which don't necessarily line up with what you hear in washington and new york and los angeles. i think it's great that iowa has this opportunity. i hope it doesn't go away and i think the stronger it gets and the louder the voice you have from people in the midwest, the better, particularly in a year. if you go back and look at the results in 2008 and 2010, the swing part of the country has been the midwest. it was blue in 2008. it went red in 2010. it's going to decide probably the election in 2012. it's appropriate to have this kind of a focus here. >> except that this is not even typical of the midwest. this is a state that is whiter than average of the it's a state that is older than average. it's a state that has a different kind of economy than is typical across the united states. so on the one hand it's great because the candidates get to hone their message, they get to meet real people here. real people concerns, but i don't think that it necessarily is going to give you the

template -- >> but iowa is like minnesota and ohio than like new york and california and even florida and texas. i think it's important to have those things represented. >> regardless of that, president obama is coming here on tuesday. iowa is the state that he knows he has to win. we can make an academic argument if this is the right way. this probably isn't the perfect way. but iowa will be a battle ground state. if president obama is fighting here a year from now, he's in trouble. >> bret: that's why he's coming here. what about this today about one and two? if tim pawlenty finishes three, is it pretty much over for tim pawlenty? >> i think he'll have is a tough decision to make. he will have to significantly -- as he told a few reporters, retrench and reevaluate. throw a lot of his staff overboard. he has the biggest overhead of any presidential campaign. he can barely afford it now. beginning monday, if he gets third place, he wouldn't be able to afford it. we'll have to see how bad he wants this, how much he wants to

live off the land and sort of retrench. someone is going to emerge at the end of this process to be probably the alternative to mitt romney. he would have to go into hibernation for a while. >> bret: if he surprises, it changes the dynamic. >> he's got a second potential problem with rick perry getting into the race and tim pawlenty does not do well, he has the potential that a lot of supporters could go to perry, as could some of his top campaign talent. >> bret: is it possible that other campaigns who are on the ground here, the mitt romney folks, the perry folks, would help another campaign like bachman to hurt a campaign like pawlenty? >> sure. >> bret: conspiratorial. >> i didn't get the sense from talking to people, again, unscientific, can't prove it, but i didn't get the sense from

conversations that i was having around the ground that there was a lot of that, if it was going on. >> bret: do you agree, one, two for tim pawlenty or he's in trouble? >> he focused his entire campaign on doing well in the straw polls. his campaign was built around the idea that he would do well and it would give him momentum to take through the fall and into the caucuses. if you don't have that momentum, you really have to rethink what you're doing. >> bret: do any of you think the debate on thursday, this close to the straw poll, had impact on this voting today? >> i think it did, actually. you talk to some supporters of michelle bachman. they were more inclined to come out here and support her. they thought she had a really good performance. they thought tim pawlenty was picking on her and they've seen more resolve to do that. otherwise i think that's probably the only effect. maybe the santorum -- talk about people who didn't leave the tent. people did not leave the rick

santorum tent because they were committed to him. he said a lot of good things at the debate. >> bret: when we come back, we'll talk about the newest addition to the gop field, governor rick perry from texas. more with the panel in a moment. [ jon ] we don't just come up here for the view up in alaska. it's the cleanest, clearest water. we find the best, sweetest crab for red lobster we can find. yeah! [ male announcer ] hurry in to crabfest at red lobster. the only time you can savor three sweet alaskan crab entrees all under $20, like our hearty crab and roasted garlic seafood bake or sn crab and crab butter shrimp. [ jon i wouldn'tut it my table at home, i wouldn't bring it in. my name's jon forsythe, and i sea fd differently.

it is time to get america working again and that's why with the support of my family and unwavering belief in the goodness of america, i declare to you today as a candidate for president of the united states! [ cheers and applause ] >> bret: texas governor rick perry, officially a candidate in

this race, making that announcement with a big speech in south carolina. we're back with the panel. jeff, a big deal, obviously, changes the dynamic in this race. not unexpected, but on this day, probably he'll grab a lot of headlines. >> he will grab a lot of headlines. it was the topic of conversation here. it will be interesting to see how many write-in ballots he gets here, how much support he has. this group of americans for rick perry, independent group, but closely aligned with his team was working it pretty hard to try and get people to support him. but in the long-term, people here have questions about rick perry. i think by not announcing -- or by doing it on the same day as iowa, he'll spend three days here, sunday, monday, tuesday, but he'll also have to humble himself a little bit. but even more than that, other questions came up from voters. where does he stand on immigration? i had more people ask me questions about his record than i do of any other candidate.

i think he'll have his hands full when he comes here. >> bret: karen, he's going to waterloo, iowa, the hometown of michelle bachman. she's going to appear there as well at a dinner. that could be something interesting. >> it sure could. i think that the move on her part that puzzled a lot of people at first. but if she does well tonight, i think it will send a very strong statement to rick perry that i stayed here, i worked here, i fought here and i'm not giving up what i've gained here. >> bret: yeah. will he have a big following right off the bat, though? >> he absolutely will because rick perry is unique in this race in that he is both the longest serving governor, the longest continuously serving governor in america, gives establishment credentials, but he also has a huge following among the tea party. he may have been the first sort of politician of national stature to really understand the tea party and get ahead of it and understand what it was going to mean to republican policy.

>> bret: by staying out this long and by flirting with us, all of us collectively in the media for so long, steve, is there also an expectations game here in that there are high expectations now for the texas governor? >> sure. and i think his team is really aware of that. i talkd to one of his strategists who said tomorrow will be big because we understand we've got these expectation, he is something of an unknown. his policy positions are not well-known. he's going to have to do everything he can to explain them to make people understand what kind of a conservative he is. i thought he did a pretty good job of that in this kickoff speech today. he's trying to run, i think, as a full spectrum conservative. somebody who can appeal to everybody in all parts of the republican party. he led off by trying to do that. >> bret: how does he differentiate himself from someone like a congresswoman bachman, or second place finisher here, whoever that is?

>> yeah. maybe too simple to put it this way, but people believe bachman is a pure conservative candidate, but might have electability questions. people think mitt romney may be electable, but might not be as pure as they want him to be. rick perry i think hopes to come in right in between those two. he could be electable and conservative. >> he's going to talk about jobs. he's going to talk about what he has done in texas to create jobs and i think that is something that no other candidate is going to have. >> bret: jeff, i asked about this, texas governor perry's announcement and the debate and it was interesting to hear some of the candidates react to that and how they're going to react to him in this race. >> without a doubt, it's going to -- mitt romney is not going to sit on the side lines here and be his low key self. he is going to go after him. either publicly or privately and really ferret it out. they spent a lot of time investigating in his record and things. so he's going to be an immediate

factor in the race, no question. but the thing that i also picked up oddly here, i thought, a number of rank and file said he was a democrat. is it true he ran al gore's campaign in 1988? >> bret: that is -- yeah, he was. >> absolutely true. >> al gore was more conservative back then, if you can believe it now. it's not the al gore of today. so that's something that's hanging around. he'll address that, my guess is with humor or something. but there are a lot of questions here about rick perry and if the field contracts a little bit after today and the activists are ready to sort of start this process again and he'll be sort of fresh meat, if you will. >> bret: because the process does kind of weather someone. it gets them prepared to go through this because once he gets in, all of us are going to be all over him. >> and certainly there is a lot in his record. he, as i said, is the longest serving governor in texas. that means he left hyped a lot of fans, but a lot of enemies.

and that, i think, he's a very controversial figure, even among texas republicans. >> bret: last word? >> yeah. i think his support is somewhat soft among texas republicans. there is polling that suggests that. the question is whether he can translate the economic performance of texas under his tenure to a broader message about the jobs and the economy. if he can do that, i think he stands a pretty good job of being the republican nominee. >> bret: okay. we have an entire hour to go in our special coverage of the iowa straw poll as we await results, still getting word that it will come back in about 45 minutes to an hour. we should get it in to the special, special report. we'll be back after a short break. [ male announcer ] we asked real people if they'd help us with an experiment for febreze fabric refresher. they agreed. [ experimenter 1 ] relax, take some nice deep breaths. [ experimenter 2 ] what do you smell? lilac. clean. there's something that's really fresh.

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>> bret: just outside here, just before 6:00 o'clock in the east. just before 5:00 o'clock here in the midwest. we are live in ames, iowa where thousands of iowans came today to vote in the 2011 straw poll. the first really big indicator of where the republican presidential race stands. i'm bret baier. welcome to our second hour of the special special report. we're hearing it's going to be 45 minutes to an hour, although that could shift. let's bring in carl cameron.

hello again. >> everything can shift when you're talking iowa straw poll politics. we've been in a frenzy of speculation trying to figure out what indicators are who will win. the first thing they watch is which campaign brought people here with the most buses? and the early unofficial count is that ron paul had more bus loads this morning delivered here. having said that, michelle bachman's tent was elbow to elbow at 9:30, 10:00 o'clock this morning and as chris wallace said earlier, she bought up a lot of tickets to give to supporters. then there is tim pawlenty, a short while ago over in his tent, it was a huge crowd. well over 1,000 people there. his own aides say our barbecue was good. but they also believe that so was pawlenty's organization in advance of this. it's only a matter of time now that they count this thing up and what we're hearing from behind the