mr. lee and state farm are patriots for putting it together. >> that is it for us tonight check out the fox news factor website different from billoreilly.com. spout off about the factor from anywhere in the world. oreilly@foxnews.com. name and town if you wish to opine. wore of the day, do not have a conniption when writing to the factor. we do not want to be responsible for those. thanks for watching, i'm bill o'reilly. remember the spin stops here, because we are definitely because we are definitely looking out for you. closed captioned by closed captioning services, inc. >> sean: tonight democrats begin to bail on the president ahead of next year's election. dick morris is here with his 2012 prediction.

president obama continues to out to his ambitious jobs plan. >> the president: this is a bill that will help our economy. >> sean: he would like to reach into your wallet to pay for it all. we have the details. >> outrage after the feds raid gibson guitar factories over allegations the company is illegally importing wood. was this necessary? the ceo of gibson guitars is here with strong words for the anointed one. i go head-to-head with pbs's tavis smiley on why african-american voters are unhappy with the obama white house. >> democrats from coast-to-coast are sounding the alarm as the prospect of a second term for president obama becomes more and more unlikely. the unusual candidness from some of the administration's closest allies was captured if in a "new york times" article over the weekend. among those now openly

criticizing the president is oregon -- he said in my district the enthusiasm for him has evaporated. tremendous discontent with his direction. he says i have a heck of a lot democrats voting for him before don't know if i would do it again. battle over anthony weiner's former seat rains on. special election will be held tomorrow. the democrat in the race state assemblyman david weprin continues to distance himself from the president saying he would probably support obama's reelection. many prominent democrats in the stay are supporting republican businessman bob turner because of the white house's handling of israel. with 14 months to go, can the president win back support of his own party? here with analysis, former clinton adviser dick morris is back. sir, welcome. >> good to be here sean.

>> sean: we got the 9th congressional district in new york 3-1 registered democrats. gore got 67% of the vote in 2000. obama carried it by 11 percentage points. turner the republican up in two polls by six points. dramatic 17 point swing. if he wins, what does this mean for obama? >> it is the equivalent of scott brown's victory in 2009. in early 2010 in massachusetts. that sent a message to the democrats that any republican can beat any democrat in any state. if a republican could win in massachusetts. this sends the same message for the house. but a more specific thing. it is going to cause house democrats to jump ship on obama. one out of every five democratic congressman in the house was elected in the special election where there is no primary they waltz in,

2/3 of the districts are not competitive. they don't worry about republicans. they hardly know there is a republican party. one of those districts was chuck schumer's and anthony weiner. now if a republican wins it is going to terrify those safe democrats. they worry about prime pearce but they don't sweat november. now they have to start sweating it. >> >> sean: to what extent is this a referendum on the president? obama has a 31% approval rating in the district. 56% disapproval in this heavily democratic district. the issues of israel, snubbing of benjamin netanyahu, treatment of israel. the president itself it is a referendum on him and this guy weprin supported the ground zero mosque. is it mostly about obama and his failed policies? >> yeah, i think it is a referendum on it. but it is about three specific groups. first, as you mentioned, jews

are upset with him because of his overtly anti-israel posture. i did a poll a couple months ago, 40% of jewish democrats said obama was biased against israel second is african-americans are not turning out to vote, they are sitting on their hands. if you had a large black turn-out in that district you couldn't have a republican victory. latinos in that district are not coming out for barack obama. a lot are voting for turner. three groups that he has relied upon are turning on him in that district. breathtaking news. >> sean: if the republican wins in this district, 75% democrat. what did the senate democrats the claire mccassels of the world do wednesday morning? -- claire mccaskells of the world do wednesday morning? >> it is conceivable they abandon their suicide oaths

and start voting against obama in coalition for the republicans for moderate policies. all over the country you are getting strong republican challengers to these incumbent democrats. sarah steelman in missouri, josh mandel in ohio, hoekstra in wisconsin. really burris in pennsylvania. really strong candidates who could take these incumbents out. rayburg in montana. what is going on now these incumbents better reel they better split from obama because he's dragging them down. >> sean: can you imagine a democrat, i'll probably vote for obama, probably, of course they vote for obama 500,000, infusion of money, fear-mongering. chuck schumer saying it makes you wonder if republicans aren't trying to slow down the

economic recovery for political gain. basically echoing the white house's line. >> as you mentioned, the obama release today how he's going to pay for that jobs program and the big item he's going to eliminate the mortgage interest deduction for many americans that is going to destroy what is left of the housing and real estate industry. you mentioned social security. there's an interesting thing unfolding on the republican side. romney has narrowed his criticism of perry. so he's not just talking about the ponzi scheme and all of that he's making two specific boynes. first, he's saying that perry says -- perry says social security is unconstitutional and romney says it is constitutional. perry says it should be run by the states. romney says it should remain national. those issues being clearly defined in the last day or two are going to be fascinating on the republican side. you have a real different of

opinion. it will be interesting to see how that plays out. >> sean: good question. how does this layout here? both you and karl rove have taken the position perry has made a mystic, should back off the comment -- made a mistake, should back off the comment. the reality is it is bankrupt, he's being forthright in saying that. he did also add that it wants to be fixed. you think this is going to come back to haunt him. he didn't seem to back off today. >> romney has taken one further step that puts night a new perspective. we know it is bankrupt. we all know they are taxing one generation to pay the other and in that sense if there were no power to tack it could have been called a ponzi scheme. perry has in his book articulated, it shouldn't be federal and it is not constitutional it is. he says he's not going to eliminate it for current retirees.

those are fundamental disagreements. you can run social security on a state basis way do the states do? are their elderly going to get hungry because they can't get money nationally? congress has the power to text that's all social security is. this will become key in the republican primary. >> sean: dick morris, thank you. >> is the president losing his african-american base as november 2012 draws closer? we check in with tavis smiley. he's here with reaction to that all important question. first, the anointed one pleads with congress to pass his jobs bill. he uses familiar scare tactics. we'll go inside his playbook. that and more, coming up, next. ♪ [ male announcer ] unlike some car companies, nissan is running at 100%,

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new pro elite from etrade. investing unleashed. >> sean: the president's address last week was not enough he delivered another finger-wagging speech today urging congress to pass his america's job act immediately. of course to prevent another imminent catastrophe. >> the president: the american people don't have the luxury of waiting 14 months for congress to take action. folks are living week to week, paycheck-to-paycheck. they need action. >> sean: as usual the president could not help but resort to using the same class warfare and false choices that we've gotten used to. joining me with reaction the co-host of the hit the five right here on this network

andrea tantaros. senior editor of the american spectator john fund is back. dead on arrival any way. he's going around the -- did you see his poll numbers gallup went down after the speech. >> so did the stock market. >> are we surprised? i'm not surprised they went down. all messages we heard before. he went up and blamed republicans, urged them pass this president hand out. we expected this. he's using our money, taxpayer money to buy off votes from key demographics that he needs to show up at the polls in november. >> congress will pass the payroll tax cut, including -- >> sean: how are we going to pay for social security headed for bankruptcy? >> we never paid for it out of taxes the trust fund is a myth. the point is they will pass that, that might increase consumer spending and job creation. >> sean: it didn't do it the

last four times we tried. >> it is better than nothing. >> sean: good point. >> it is -- if the trillion stimulus didn't work why would half a trillion stimulus work? >> this is pure politics. obama is using another attempt to try to get the republicans to raise taxes so they can break their no new taxes pledge. that's what this is about. corporate loopholes, yes they should be closed. as part of an overall tax reform. obama doesn't want overall tax reform because some of his contributors, including general electric love the current tax system. >> sean: it is not going to happen. tax reform is going to mean a way to cover-up a tax increase. back to this election in new york 9th anthony weiner, the weiner seat. republicans republican up by six points, 75% democratic district. good reporter, "new york post", good article, democrats trying to spin in. they want the democrat to

lose. they want the republican to win. that will wake up obama. do you buy that? >> i don't buy that. i know fred dicker, great reporter that is just spin from democrats in new york who are panicked and democrats across the country who should be. he has to worry about bellwether states like florida, ohio. not very jewish districts that haven't gone republican since nine -- 1923. if this turns this is the biggest indicator this president is in grave trouble. >> the best way to wake up barack obama is beat him in november '12. >> sean: you sent me an e-mail today link to national review in the corner -- you've talked about, written about voter fraud. you're concerned in this district because it has a long history of voter fraud. >> democratic district

attorney elizabeth holtzman uncovered amazing fraud. >> sean: this was in the late 70s, early 80s. >> yes, but i'm saying right now you have a lot of permanent absentee voters returns are coming back, vacant lots. a few have gotten absentee ballots they never requested. prefered way of fraud. we have to keep an eye on this, given the history of this district. >> which is still bad news that means the democrats have to steal any election to win. is that their strategy for 2012? funnel money to a corn under a different name -- to acorn under a different name. >> sean: the strategy is run from obama, don't say you will vote to elect him, then mediscare, then have schumer say republicans would rather there be no economic growth because they are party ahead of country. obama said that himself. >> it is not going to work.

republicans don't have to act on this jobs bill. i know times of crisis -- >> sean: they passed jobs bill, a bill for the economy. >> people expect congress to act they will probably put something forward. the issue will be is the president when he doesn't get what he wants is he going to veto it? >> chuck schumer who i hope you have on. >> sean: you think chuck schumer is coming off this program. last time go off the air he use add expletive and said he's never blanking coming back. >> that's good television this is the district that he used to represent if it goes republican, a district that went 67% for al gore this is an earthquake. that -- this is the scott brown of 2010. >> sean: i think it is bigger. >> prepare for a lot of scheduling conflicts when obama travels to states like claire mccaskell unfortunately i'm going to miss this. >> sean: in other words the president is becoming toxic.

>> even in new york city. >> sean: one of the most heavily democratic districts. >> is president obama in danger of losing even the african-american voting base? tavis smiley says yes. and what it means for the president in 2012. >> first why the federal government is going after one great american guitar company and how liberal policies are probably playing a role. gib son guitar's ceo is joining they next, straight ahead. [ man ] behind every business is a "what if."

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it's a smart way to go. ♪ >> sean: they've been the instrument of for legends like bb king, bob dylan, eric clapton even zz top. now the future may be uncertain for gibson guitar after federal agents raided the headquarters and several factories taking millions worth of exotic wood and computer files. feds claiming gibson illegally imported the wood. according to government documents if the wood had been finished by workers overseas, instead of by americans it would have been legal time port. not only does the indian government allow the export of this special wood, gibson is not only guitar headacher using it.

-- guitar maker using it. could it be the ceo has donated to conservative candidates. his counterparts have mostly donated to democrats? the attorney general holder insists no politics are involved. some members of congress are outraged calling for an investigation and demanding answers. joining me with reaction the ceo of the great gibson guitar company that's henry how are you? >> very well, thank you for having me. >> sean: every musician i know it has to be gibson. lynyrd skynyrd he was outraged over this as well. as are many others. here's what i want to understand here. by the way, you imported this wood legally, correct? this is all phony, just to start with. >> we did. and we have a letter from the indian government saying this product was legal to export interest india. which is the point.

>> sean: that is point number one. point number two, if the woodqd were finished in india, and sent to you, then it is perfectly legal. which means -- how many years have you been in business? >> we've been in business since 1894. >> sean: okay that would mean all those american jobs that actually finished the wood and get it to that high quality that every musician loves, those jobs would be lost, is that not correct? >> that's right. the government actually said in a case where we have in federal court that we should be manufacturing guitars in madagascar. >> sean: you ought to be manufacturing -- we should take your whole company -- how many people do you employ at gibson? >> we employ approximately 1200 people in the united states. >> sean: okay. 1200 people at a time when jobs are tight, those are

important jobs that would mean 1200 people having a difficult time in a very difficult economy getting new work. let me ask you, you sent a letter to president obama. why don't you tell us about it. >> well, i sent a letter when we first got raided, attacked, approximately two years ago. and said, what do i do? i mentioned all the things that we've done to get the right kind of wood, working with the rain forest alliance and the forest stewardship council. we've been very active actually in getting wood sourced that is environmentally friendly and so forth. and we saw nothing wrong. we had all the appropriate documents to import the wood and so forth. when a hostile raid with no notice. i sent a letter and basically have never gotten a response.

i actually called the white house office, two months after i sent the letter to ensure that the letter arrived and had been seen. yes it has. no response. >> sean: basically, if this is blood pressure the use of ebony and some other fine woods that are rare, if you have the permission of the indian government, which you do, then you have the right to import it. they are saying you fraudulently labeled to conceal and circumvent the indian law here. this is a law that goes back to 1900. the lacey act originally passed to regulate trade in bird feathers that were used for hats amended to cover wood in 2008. is this a case where the government, you know is basically encouraging you to fire your people, go overseas and eliminate american jobs?

but you can still sell the product in america? >> that's apparently what they are doing. >> sean: this is dumb. >> that's the way they are acting. it is causing great harm to our buy. they have shut our factories -- to our business. they have shut our factories down and confiscated raw material which spreads us from manufacturing. having to put our people did which prevents us from manufacturing. having to put our people out of work, that's a fact. >> sean: this is so dumb. by the way you are not the only person. do you think this is politically motivated because you have donated to conservatives? >> i have been -- i don't know. i certainly have donated to conservatives. i've donated to democratic candidates at points in the past. i can believe politics -- >> sean: i can. >> -- causes the government to do something this shocking, so

i don't know. >> sean: look how many conservatives got audited in the clinton years. interesting story there i believe. i wish you the best. congratulations on your great product. sad to here that -- to hear that a great company that employs american workers are being told to move to madagascar or wherever they are telling to you -- you to go. thank you. >> thank you. >> sean: i go head-to-head with tavis smiley. plus our great, great, , beckel in the house, our great american panel, coming up. is it here?

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of african-american kids. here with a sneak peek. >> we traveled to oakland, philadelphia, chicago and los angeles to meet other boys who are on the road to success and the dedicated educators who refuse to let them fail. >> nobody deems of dropping out of high school. 5-year-olds tell the truth. i want to be a fireman, lawyer. they don't ever say i want to dropout. i want to murder, i want to be murdered, they don't say that >> if the crisis black boys are enduring right now were cris involving white boys, what would the response be in this country? >> it would be immediate. it would be drastic. >> sean: joining me the man himself, tavis. we go back a long way. it is good to see you. we don't agree a lot on issues. but i've always had a good respect for you.

and appreciate you being back. let's start at the point we disagree. i think barack obama has failed as president. you like him. tell me where he's been successful. >> i don't think barack obama would say he thinks i like him given the critique i've had of him of late. a lot of people would laugh at . poverty, black unemployment on these wars. i've had some critiques of the president. my view is this and my friend dr. cornell west coined this phrase, i respect the president, i will protect the president but i will also correct the president when i think he's wrong. i think that's how you handle any president. you respect the presidency, protect our president, sometimes presidents have to be corrected. they are not right about about everything no matter who they are. >> sean: could you see yourself voting for a ran? >> to me it is not about labels.

>> sean: again running now? >> not at the moment now. >> sean: you see any area where he's been successful? unemployment would stay below 8%, bush was unpatriotic when he hit the four trillion, he did it in 2 1/2 years. what metric do you look at where you say he is successful? >> i don't think this is a winning campaign extra. i think it is true it -- campaign strategy it could have been worse. i have major issues with the health care reform. it didn't go far enough for me. but i think getting a step closer for all americans having access to equal high squally health care is an important step. again i'm not -- i'm not the guy to run talking points. i think certainly our image around the globe. i've been here in new york at a conference to bring nations

of the world together. there's no doubt about the fact around the world our standing around the world went up dramatically, post george bush into era barack obama. >> sean: he went on this apology tour. we don't have the right to impose our value, america is not a christian nation. it is almost daily criticism. poll numbers tanked. accumulated over four trillion in debt. he wants more spending. higher taxes. why would you double down on sothing that has failed? >> we disagree that. >> sean: where has it been successful? >> again i'm in an awkward position because i'm not the guy to give the obama talking points i have a problem personally and political with this deficit reduction package. when you put together a deal that doesn't raise new revenue, no taxes on the rich or lucky, doesn't extend unemployment benefits. the one we just passed a few

weeks ago. >> sean: this is what he is calling for now 450 billion in new spending. they just announced majority is going to come through higher taxes. >> i don't the scale of what he has presented is equivalent to the size of the problem. i think it ought to be bigger. there ought to be more spending. if you want to bring the deficit down, the fastest and surest way, more jobs. you want to bring down the deficit, create more jobs. >> sean: i felt the rhetoric got insane during the bush years. try to criticize the president on -- philosophical. here's the deal, when you see jimmy hoffa call tea party members sons of bitches and we are at war with them, maxine waters saying they can go straight to hell, andre carson say they want black people

hanging at trees. i take personal offense on that. he lectured the country on civility, h's been missing in action. the answer is we are not going to be the speech police now. hypocrite ? >> yes on october sides. i was move -- yes, on both sides. i was so moved when the country came together, around gabrielle giffords. i thought i was a little corny, but cool and cute that they sat with eve other, republicans and democrats in the house. the problem with our nation is, this is true of 9/11 as it is true with the incident involving gabrielle giffords. if it takes a tragedy like this to bring us together. 9/11, or members of congress being shot to bring us together to talk about civility, that can't be the answer. we're not a civil enough society. >> sean: shouldn't the president speak out now? you remember the big sister

souljah moment? >> i remember it well. >> sean: if he took on dre carson and said stop, maxine waters be, stop. jimmy hoffa, stop. wouldn't he benefit politically? >> he might. but if he starts telling people to stop there's a long line, including the republican who stands up and said you lie. >> sean: he apologized. i'm a christian, i believe in -- >> we are both christians. >> sean: the word education is to bring forth from within. if we don't educate our kids this isn't a race issue, we don't educate our kids, we are destroying their god given talent. >> here's where the race factor comes in. if the crisis young black boys were endure now were the same crises young white boys were in right now there would be a state of emergency, call to

action, we would be doing something about it. >> sean: it is happening across racial lines. when reagan did his nation at risk, what has happened the educational system in america done by an outside force would be tantamount to an act of war. kids in many places, especially inner cities are not getting what they deserve. we should give every family a check, let the schools compete. >> george bush and i agreed on one thing, when you use that phrase low bigotry, expectations. that is what is happening to young black boys. if white boys were facing the same crisis not even half of black boys are finishing high school? it is a national disgrace. would you agree it is an american problem? >> sean: absolutely. you said george bush lied to the american people. john kerry, hillary clinton made the case. all the democrats made the case. >> all misled. >> sean: you said bush lied. did they lie?

if you are going to say it about bush you have to say it about everybody. >> i'll make this one distinction if the president provides the intel for them. the narrative for them. >> sean: no george tenet. >> that's bush's guy. >> sean: also clinton's guy. >> by any other definition, call it a lie, misled, bamboozled, hoodwinked, duped, we were led into a war. i know your heart is pained by the loss of american lives. we missed the moment 10 years ago. we lost time, treasure. >> sean: i think we did the right thing. >> i don't think we did. >> sean: let not your heart be troubled our great, great american panel is next. to be more environmentally aware,

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in already. >> i didn't say a damn thing. >> sean: what was with the scratching of your back? >> i had a thing with my back, that's all. >> how long is that title? >> it is long. host of the five beckel, fox news legal analyst peter johnson, jr. is here. host of the john phillips show, john philips back with us. let's look at paul krugman. tea party members, conservatives can straight to hell, they want black people hanging from trees. it never stops. here's what krugman says about bush and giuliani. he said what happened after 9/11 even people on the right know this, whether they admit or not was shameful. atrocity should have been a unifying event instead a wedge issue fake heroes like bernie kerik, giuliani, yes bush cashed in on the horror.

they used this to justify war, et cetera. giuliani and kerik nearly died on 9/11. they were right there at ground zero. they didn't leave in spite of being told they should. "new york times" author, what think? >> it was horrible. badly written. the whole thing was -- the guy is having an acid flashback or something. i don't know what has happened to krugman. one thing i can agree with this that article which was when he said this -- the rest of the stuff on bush is horrible, wrong. bernie kerik despite the tax he's in prison, still a hero that day. it did lead to the war in iraq, it made iran the dominant power in that region because we went in on falsified information. >> sean: that was advanced by hillary clinton, ted kennedy. >> right and they were wrong.

>> sean: why it is always about bush? >> it shouldn't. the former president and rudy giuliani can defend hem service -- them services and history will make clear on that way. it was despicable when he said the memory of 9/11 has become an occasion for shame. it is occasion for honor, remembrance and great courage. it is disgusting. >> sean: john, what do you think the strategy is behind, you know, black people should hang from trees and republicans want that and they can go straight to hell l and they are sons of bitches and we are at war with them. -- >> conservatives say if you keep it up obama is going to be attacked, krugman is giving cover to the 9/11 truthers. i was at ground zero yesterday. they were going after bush, after giuliani, going after

kerik. he gives those people coverage. you shouldn't be doing that. >> they are very conservative, those are not wrals -- liberals. by the way it is a small percentage on the left. >> sean: where is obama, leader on the civility police quick to go after sarah palin after gabrielle giffords and the shooting in tucson. >> i don't think he -- >> sean: yes, he gave in whole speech. >> the effort is, bob understands the notion of the base, let's gin up the base. that's what the dissatisfaction is at this point if you can have class warfare. if you can have warfare based on ethnic origin. if you can have warfare based on positions in society that's good. that will attract more attention to this race. >> that was a lot about what obama's speech was about last week, it was about ginning up

the base the thought of having a republican house, senate and white house. you don't need obama for that. >> sean: if he tries to appease the base any more those independents that he has lost 2-1 now are never going to come back. he has quite a political quandary. >> he can get back to that group of people. one of the things they want desperately. >> sean: then the base will get angry. >> all they want is tea party attacks and he's gone. >> people remember what you stand for if you don't disavow it -- >> sean: last word john. >> what krugman was doing is red meat to the base, disgraceful. >> sean: bob something calling you? >> yeah i was my bookie, apologize, i thought i turned it off. >> sean: more with our great american panel. the all predictable, bob beckel, next. [ male announcer ] every day, thousands of people are choosing advil.

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>> sean: we continue with our great american panel. we got this i think pivotal race. anthony weiner's old seat. a guy running away says he may vote for obama for reelection. the issues are israel, obama,

the ground zero mosque. right now the republican in a 75% district is leading. >> candidates matter. this guy that the democrats nominated has made every mistake you can make. the only person in that district i think that is more unpopular than the flasher. he's the guy they nominated. >> sean: i don't think it would matter who they put up. the district's feeling about obama. >> also repudiation of the democratic party and people supporting the democratic candidate all of the folks that put their name on ads for in guy, they wouldn't repudiate anthony weiner, they didn't ask him to leave. the people are saying what is this about? >> sean: true. i don't know how well you know the assembly man, a great guy. he has crossed lines to support the republican. ed koch is supporting the republican. by all accounts this guy is going to win. >> you have a great radio

voice. >> sean: what am i chop liver? >> he has that deep bass voice. i wish i have that. when i used to talk to dates it would be great to have. >> sean: phone calls bob? >> no, that was in the past, heavy breathing. right now nobody wants to run close to obama right now, who would. that's understandable that happens. we'll see what happens next year. right now in this district -- if i were the consultant to that race i would not say go out and campaign for obama nobody in their right mind would. i don't think it is about obama as much as the dynamics of that field and the democratic party operation. >> i think it is about obama the candidate is a nice, decent guy and decent public servant. i think people want a change. they want someone that's not been part of the process, proven businessperson that is going to make a change.

[ talking over each other ] >> special elections in the last years where obama has been in bad trouble and democrats beat republicans, upstate new york being one. >> i agree with sean. it is bigger than scott brown. >> sean: there's going to be a massive defection. >> nah! >> sean: you said in the break, there's very few people that will be there in a butcher -- i said i would be there for you. >> i'm just saying i don't think this one race you see as a major upsetting process. >> sean: claire mccaskell is running for the hills. -- [ talking over each other ] >> emblemmatic watch is going on -- especially the fact it is happening in new york in senator schumer's district. >> we couldn't get the sheriff of another county who was a republican to show up. the reality of politics is,

self-preservation exercise. >> sean: let me ask john. we just did the gibson guitar issue. we had the sew. they raid this place. -- we had -- if the wood was finished abroad they would be fine. they had the proper documentation. now they are told if you move your facilities overseas and create job there, does this impact the administration? doesn't that bring home every big musician in the country who loves gibson guitars, how stupid and insane regulation and bureaucracy is? >> i think president obama wants to save one job and it's his. everyone else is on their own. and that's the case with gibson. >> the obama mantra has become regulate and litigate. we need to motivate and innovate. >> that was illegal wood, i will really bought. >> sean: it was not illegal wood. they have all the proper documentation. >> you listen to the ceo, i don't buy it. >> sean: all ty