>> this is a fox news lart. i am geraldo rivera. the big political question this sunday evening in our economically stressed out country it was 21 days before the iowa kuk cusses mitt romney has the time and energy and money to recover from the tone deaf moment from last night's presidential debate. >> there is a section called the arizona model. each state should be able to fashion their own programs. i have not said enough first addition or the latest edition anything about our plan being a national model imposed in our nation. >> i know it came out in the

reprint. individual mandates. >> you have raised that before. >> it was true then and it's true now. >> 10,000 dollar bet. >> i am not a betting man. >> i am pretty sure i didn't drive by a how is that any one in iowa would even think about a 10,000 dollar bet is possible. a little out of touch with the normal iowa citizen. >> does normal iowa citizens were already rushing to speaker gingrich before last night's debate. the most recent poll in iowa had gingrich with a clear and growing lead of 30 percent to 20 percent for the massachusetts governor. that is as much as my dad ever made in a year. for the candidate to offer it a

casual bet could be a blow to his fading prospects. the first in the nation primary state think the primary white house chief of staff life and at large from manchester governor delighted to you on board. >> thank you geraldo. what he needed to do was remind voters he is rich enough to burn 10 grand on a bet. >> look, geraldo, he was tired i am sure governor perry bringing up the same erroneous facts he tried to use a rhetorical gesture. he drove the point home. governor perry backed off. the "washington post" has done fact checking and they have confirmed the fact that governor perry is wrong. that's the issue. i think the voters want to hear about jobs and they want to hear about the republicans are going

to get rid of obama. >> romney led him by a whopping 40 percent. as of four-days ago that 41 point lead has slunk to 12 points. it went from 36 to 24.3. this is a devastating trend, is it not? >> those polls go up and down. i have looked back in history in 1988. i had a presidential candidate coming into new hampshire that lost he came in 3rd or 4th in iowa. the polls in new hampshire were not good for him for the time and he won and went on to win it. last time around john mccain was way behind the beginning this

time in december. all of a sudden he started pulling forward. there is volatility in polls. don't count on them until the voters go to the caucuses and cast their votes. this is going to be a long hard slug because we have moved proportionality under the republican national committee rules. don't try to over trend the analysis on the basis of a number that goes up and down. two weeks ago four weeks ago you would have told me herman cain would have been the next nominee. >> herman cain stepped on a land mine of his own making. let's bring in our panelists and have a bigger discussion. michelle bachmann former campaign chairman ed rollins joins us a brand new fox news contributor. welcome aboard. romney didn't help himself. >> he didn't have a good night. john did bring george bush back

he's a good friend of mine. i would have great confidence him running any campaign for me. but romney has had good debates. last night was not a good debate. i think the bottom line is he didn't lose anything but he didn't make the gain he needed to. gingrich put the spotlight on him for the first time performed very effectively. >> don't you -- >> go ahead. >> you are right. it was not his best debate. we are not trying to suggest it was. this process is much deer and more complicated than people give it credit for. just as i have said rick perry ought not to be judged for his qualifications as president from a 30 second senior moment i don't think we should judge our next presidential candidate determine him on the basis of who gives a great 30 second quip or who steps on himself once or twice in the debate process. we are looking for somebody who can solve big problems. i think that's what mitt romney is going to convey to people he

has done it in the past and he has to be a little more aggressive coming in here. i think he will be able to do that. >> you and i agree on the process. i think it will be long and drawn out. >> you think it will be long and drawn out. >> if gingrich loses the first three or four. he doesn't have any money or organization he does have play and momentum. but i think that john is correct we are going to have -- newt is clearly the alternative at this time and it will be a great battle. >> let's look at some of the other polls. let's get internal data here. gingrich is leading in iowa closing the gap in new hampshire. he is kicking put in the next two primaries south carolina which is stick the national candidates in 80 by 19 big ones.

florida has him beating by 44 to 29 with nobody else even close. rick tyler maybe you should have stayed around former spokesman for newt binge rich. >> i have thought about that a lot of times. they haven't gone up for mitt and haven't gone down. they stayed at 25 percent. 23 percent. 24 percent. it does not seem this republican party wants to elect mitt romney to their nominee. the only other person who has gone up and not down and newt he happened to be doing it before the eiowa caucuses. >> he has only had two weeks in the spotlight since thanksgiving. the process takes a little while. oo in terms of getting

scrutiny we are taking a good hard look as campaign professionals and trying to say what is likely to happen what is possible to happen. i think what is likely to happen is the responsible electorate in the states you have outlined they take responsibility to make hard decision and cash their ballots or go to the caucus they get serious and give the candidate heart scrutiny. in almost all of those states at least two-thirds of the republicans say they are still amenable to change their minds on the candidates. >> it is dynamic. >> most everyone thought newt gingrich had too much personal baggage to run successfully for

president. one of washington's best known rouge, jake ack abramoff. >> big news in the case of michelle parker. the people's court contestant gone missing. back in a flash.

>> i have made mistake at times. i have had to go to god for forgiveness. >> when previous frontrunner herman cain fell by accusations of sex harassment and infidelity republican candidates set their sights on the new frontrunner who's own history of infidelity and divorce is no secret. >> you see newt where he is today he doesn't run away and hide from his past transgressions. >> michael reagan son of late president ronald reagan remembers how in his dad's campaign he tried to hide his

past. >> when you go back to 76 and 80 maureen and i campaigned heavily but they were so worried about jane wine man's name from coming up they tried to hide us at different events so maybe they wouldn't see us. tooled it would become an issue. they would look at my father today and think about the things he did as governor. he did raise taxes as governor of california. he signed an abortion bill as governor of california. president ronald reagan woulden change his stand on abortion becoming pro-life but flip flop is fodder for a campaign ad. and got you moments during the debate like this one in las vegas earlier this year. >> you stood here in front of the american people and did not tell the truth. you had illegals working on your property. >> we went to the company and said we can't have illegals

working. >> what things have come out that shocked you? >> well, you know i can't name any of the comply ents that i have had. but we have discovered children withandidate didn't know he had. >> that could be shocking. >> that remains private. >> not speaking generally. opposition research expert stone says many candidates hire firms like his to prepare for personal attacks. >> i did have a relationship with ms. lewinsky that was not appropriate. >> even three marriages admitted infidelity even when he was investigating president clinton in the impeachment proceedings, you are saying that there still be more dirt on him? >> sure. more dirt or people that have a different perspective on what happened and can set clarity to things that the public decided one way. >> now the question is whether social conservatives a group

gingrich needs to win will over look the political and personal paga -- baggage. >> how do you size up these two candidates? seems to be a two-man race at this point. >> newt has to find out how indeed he can make america believe he can keep it all together. everybody worries about that one day him going off the rails. >> mitt romney needs to find out how to relate to the guy who fixed water in the water cooler. he can relate to the guy who owns the water cooler. he doesn't relate to the guy who has waterfront. >> 10,000 bucks? 10,000 dollar bet. >> what worries reagan is whether the gop candidates are hurting their chance for victory next november. >> what bothers me is some of the things going on some of the ads is in fact are we not giving fodder to the other side to the democrats that they will use in the up coming general election. that to me is a large, large problem. >> so these op researchers they

dig up every word you ever said. >> everything you ever said. they are not only looking at things you said and done in the past they are looking at things you might have recently said in an obscure setting. the perfect example is newt gingrich talking to the jewish channel saying that the palestinians are an invented people. that got a lot of criticism. he was prepared for it. he responded saying he was invoking ronald reagan to say he had the courage. >> are you of palestinian dissen. are you an invented people. are your people invented? >> the biggest problem newt gingrich has is inconsistency on issues and what he did to paul ryan. >> social engineering his claims -- >> he said social engineering he cut his legs out from under him.

paul ryan was courageous in putting a package together that would deal with this tough deficit problem we have and informing the entitlement program. republican house members were ready to try to ride that as their package to try to get the president and democratically controlled senate to go along and newt comes out and cuts their legs out from under them. >> hold on. is that one of the reasons you left newt because he said that about paul ryan? >> no. it wasn't. i would point out newt is the only person in our lifetime who reformed a major entitlement program called welfare. when somebody has orchestrated the republicans 40 years in the wilderness reforms welfare cuts taxes when they bif paul ryan the advice i would have given

him the advice. i agree with the governor on that plan but you can't force people into the plan. we should have a free market. we should allow people to choose. >> i don't want to get off on that debate. i think it was right binge social engineering that's just me. >> may i add -- i want to get ed back in. are you suewer prized newt has become so resilient in terms of the infidelity and bringing it up in every debate. cease still soaring. >> i have noern him since 1978 east the knows tenacious person i have ever seen. he's a survivor. he is the last guy i would have bet he was in this position. 6, 8 weeks ago i had a long conversation. he said i hope you stay in the race. he said i don't think i am going to win i am going to stay in the race because i am a candidate to drive ideas. he's a frontrunner. he is not going away. he and romney will have a fast ending battle. my assumption right now is those

are the two that will battle it out. >> are you glad you quit michelle bachmann when you did? >> there was nothing i could do to help her. >> she did pretty good last night. >> you can help any one. >> she is a great, great candidate and she is a very smart wonderful woman. this is a tough race. especially you don't have money and resources. >> personal baggage is one thing what about the charge the former speaker is a hypocrite he gets reaching a lobbyist. remember jak abramoff? he joins us live after this.

>> freddie back is a spocks man. you received money for them. >> nifrz a spokesman for any agency. never did any lobbying for any agency. i offered strategic advice. i was in the private sector. i was doing things in the private sector. >> okay, okay. >> when you are in the private sector and you have a company and you offer advise like mckenzie does and a bunch of other companies do you have to charge money for it. >> it is called free enterprise. >> big shot brett low former lobbyist jack abramoff joins us. he wrote "capitol punishment" about washington corruption from america's most notorious will e lobbyist. is newt gingrich a lobbyist? >> he is not registered but he's doing what a lot of lobyists do. a lot of what i did is what he

is doing and earning a lot of money from it. >> he was c you were convicted with nye a bunch of white house staffers. you are not alleging he did anything improper? >> no. the problem is most of what is corrupt or trouble some in washington is legal and quote proper. i think that is unfortunately what we see in newt as we see in so many members crossing the line going from public service to cashing in on that public service. >> when he says he was historian or strategic advisor what do you say? >> i was a strategic advisor, too. that's what we do. i can't say i was a historian or not as well paid as he was but that's a very interesting spin. >> if jack looks familiar to you kevin spacey played him in the movie casino jack. he went to jail for giving gifts to legislators and aids and others to get favors for indian

tribes and their casinos. >> right. >> what made you cross the line in ill legality. >> i stopped seeing the line that was drawn in the sand. the line in washington is hardly drawn and drawn in weird places. i pro sided to give more gifts and more things that were improper and ultimately it helped to bring me down. >> is it reasonable to suspect that there is some of that in all big time lobyists? >> the way the system is access is the first important component of lobbying and gaining it is accompanied making campaign contributions it's not polite by bribe before i ultimately. >> newt gingrich former spokesman do you worry things in the former speaker's lobbying or whatever you call it will come back to bite him in the butt?

>> i have worked with gingrich for 12 years i have been to dozens of meetings with newt gingrich. he did things along the lines of being a citizen. most of the clients had nothing to do with government. we are in the private sector. i think it's reckless of him to come on here and nuth that newt gingrich engaged in something he was convicted for. he didn't accept gifts and bribes. we knew where that line was. >> he was not a lobbyist. >> he was not a lobbyist. what he had was an independent think tank. he w w w w w w w w w w ma

>> closing statements from rick tyler the former gingrich spokesman from john sinunu and ed rollins. i have to ask jack abramoff the author of "capitol punishment" about rob blagojevich who got 14 years a scandal louse sentence. 14 years is prep pos trous. i think it's truly and unusual punishment. what do you think about what blagg go is going down for the count. you got 6 you did 3 and a half. he got 14 he did a 10. never got a dime. you got rich. >> well he unfortunately didn't have the best strategy for handling this in terms of going out and having a reality show and writing a book and putting

him out there. in our system that's not what you have to be able to do, you have to face what you have done. >> good luck with the book. one of the reasons i bernie ker the convicted imprisoned new york city police commissioner who is one of my friends. jack thanks. now to the political gentlemen governor, you first give me 30 seconds on your man and why he is going to pull this out. >> look, i think the public is going to understand why tom coburn and susan molinari and peter king think the former alially they have and newt gingrich is a rad dick. they need somebody stable when the 3:00 phone call comes in they need somebody that can fix the president he has done. he needs somebody to solve those

issues that gentlemen is mitt romney. >> can newt gingrich beat obama? >> i think he can beat obama. mitt romney's advisor governor sununu is the one who told him to break his pledge on taxes. >> that's not true. i did not advise him. but you said i advised him. i didn't add vise him. >> all right guys. >> governor sununu it's not about him it's about whether gingrich can win. >> ed rollins? >> everything i know about he had ed in my presidential campaign this is different than any other. we have two strong an cats maybe a third who will be thrown into the mix. i don't think any one can predict. whoever can beat obama is what we want. >> that may not be who you get. >> i think either candidate can beat obama. >> that's interesting. gentlemen, thank you very much.

i would like for you to hear from the maestro of bare knuckle politics. >> a meeting with a group of us journalists he believes a long drawn out night between romney and newt is going to hurt the gop over several months and they seem to be feeling more confident about either romney or gingrich as an opponent. >> i tell mr. axle rod don't wish for something you may get it. i remember in 2008 saying this long drawn out contest between hillary clinton and barack obama is going to lead democrats bled right and hurt them. registration totals went way up in the battle ground states they built large armies of volunteers crystallized the message. people took a look at the candidates and came to the conclusion they were up to the job. >> when senator clinton -- or president clinton says i wasn't opposed to the war in the south or perry thing that i oppose the

war that is simply not true. >> i couldn't agree more, but i do think that your record, and what you say does matter. when it comes to a lot of the issues that are important in this race, it is sometimes difficult to understand what senator obama has said because as soon as he is confronted on it he says that's not what he meant. >> let's talk about ronald reagan. when you just repeated is -- >> i did not say anything about ronald reagan. you said two things. you talked about admiring ronald reagan and ideas of the republicans. i didn't talk about ronald reagan. >> we have the tape. you said i complemented the republican ideas. that is not true. what i said and i will provide you with the quote. what i said was ronald reagan was a transform tive political figure because he was able to get democrats to vote against their economic interests to form a majority to push through their agenda an agenda i objected to.

while i was working on the streets watching those folks seeing their jobs shipped overseas you were a corporate lawyer sitting on the board of wal-mart. >> wasn't exactly in the old terms jane you ignorant slut but the battle in 2008 was long and sometimes very bitter. here are the iowa caucus results. mr. obama beating the now disgraced former senator john he had wartsds and senator from ne york secretary of state hillary clinton by about 8 points. when he dropped out of the race the ambassador congressman governor of new mexico bill richardson through his support not to the old friend hillary but to the junior senator to illinois who became our 44th president. welcome. great to see you. how are you doing? >> thank you. thank you geraldo. great to be with you. >> i noticed that at least in the iowa caucuses you doubled joe biden and he became vice president. you got two percent he got less

than one percent. >> i was always the second tier candidate. in iowa i was second. more than anything else, geraldo, more than polls or newspaper ads or tv ads, what is important in the early primaries and caucuses is organization. who can get your voters for instance in iowa to caucus. it is not a vote. you have to get people to community centers to schools. this is where i think that while newt is up in the polls in iowa the best organized candidate is going to win. there is where i think romney can maybe have an early upset. >> are you suggesting about 250,000 people vote or so in the caucus. so romney is going to send buses to pick up every one of them? >> my point is that i think what newt has is a lot of popular support among the republican faithful around the country.

no question about it. he is surging. what i don't think he has unless i am mistaken is organization in states like iowa and states like new hampshire and states like south carolina. the early ones that pro fepel y to the no am in a i gos. and there is where i think romney may have an advantage that could be decisive. i am not an expert on republican politics. i know iowa and new hampshire. what barack owe bammians and hillary clinton and john edwards, they have impress i have organization. people bus to the polls all kinds of incentives to get people to attend the caucuses to attend those community centers. so i just think one of the things that ed rollins said is true, you can't predict anything right now because it's still too early. never in a presidential race predict what is going to happen in the end whether it is good or

bad. depends where the voters are not where the media is, not where the voters are at this time. >> with 21 days away you have christmas and iowa's earlier this year. i think a week or two earlier. someone can check that for me. christmas and new years coming up. how much do you have to really change this dynamic or are people just lying to the pollsters and now they are going to sit home and watch tv on the third of january? >> well, i think again geraldo you have got to get your voters to the polls. they may be for you, but unless they go to the caucus and vote, this is where i think candidates like romney and others that are better org nietzed than newt, might have an advantage. i wouldn't underestimate newt. i served in the congress with him. you know we in the democratic leadership at this time didn't

think he would get the contract with america done. he won the house. you can't underestimate him. he's a strong intellect. his problem will be he has a 25 year record where he has voted and said these things. this statement he made at the debate about the palestinians being an inventive people. that is going to hurt him. that's the arab-american quote. that gives people a little pause about him. he's capable of making it those. you can't underestimate him. >> i think that that was a calculated statement. i don't think that that was a slip of the tongue. i think he knew exactly what he was doing. maybe craig who did the piece earlier on opposition research is right. maybe the speaker didn't expect it to be out there. i disagree. i think that he knew when he said it that he was trading the arab vote for an energized jewish vote which is gone for the democrat. i think it was a calculated and however i disagree vehemently

with the whole notion the palestinians are an invented people if he gets the jewish vote to jump over to his side. i think he has done something politically practical from his point of view. >> geraldo, i think the jewish vote, they don't just vote on israel. they vote on issues like choice, social issues. i don't think he's going to get the jewish vote. he may get the jewish conservative vote in the prepub can primary. what he did for an educated pup lick, i don't think it makes sense. he will continue to do that he polarizes candidates and i think president obama who is campaigning on a good record is going to be able to say, look, we don't needy viciveness like this. we need diplomacy and thing people together.

it comes into obama's standard platform. you don't know what's going to lap pen. it will be romney and newt. but i say romney probably has the edge because of organization. >> governor thank you so much. great to see you again. how have you been. >> i have been fine. thank you. >> all right. all right. i was wrong. it was -- it's the same day. it was january 3rd last time was january 3rdrd. coming up big news about the children. the children in the case of the missing people's court mom after this.

>> we were had he hard rock he made a derogatory comment to me regarding a past relationship that i had with someone else. i never he went down the stairs got 10 or 15 feet away from the door i saw somebody yanked me. he was holding on to me screaming at me get back up to the stage you -- i am sitting there looking at him really you are going this in front of all of these people. >> the day it aired 3 weeks ago the lovely woman 33-year-old michelle parker disappeared. they have a bitter and violent

dispute. he was named the primary suspect in the disappearances ex-con dishonorably discharged hard breaking abusive man who's first man died the authorities now conside considers following a controversial court decision. michelle's sister lauren joins us from orlando go along with the family attorney matt morgan michelle's mom also joins us. i am happy to report she has important gbusiness to attend t. tell us what she is doing. >> geraldo we were able to come to an agreement with regards to visitation of the grandchildren. evan is spending the evening decorating the christmas tree with the grandchildren and she

is goned happy. >> they are leaved now does your mom have custody of the children or is custody still with she has visitation rights. >> spending the night with them right now. we got to spend some time with them today. we got to come ore to my house and got cars, too. it was very uplifting to see those two little guys. >> they are 3 and a half. they seem fine. happy, healthy little kids. they are 3 so they don't understand the ways of the world. they did make the comments of mommy is on vacation or mommy is at work when they talk about michelle. >> they don't know anything

about mom's fate? >> no. that is a difficult one to try to explain to a 3-year-old. we just explain it to them she is just on vacation right now. >> can you tell us about the visitation how they will be divide the custody? >> the family will have limited access to the children. we are very fortunate in that regard. martin ej and dale smith attorney. it is the agreement they reached are going to be disclosed because of a private matter with families and heightened media attention this case has received. yvonne is happy with the agreement and she will get to see the kids on a regular basis.

>> finding michelle's cell phone what this means to the case where it's going whether or not they are going to arrest this punk her husband after this.

>> breaks my heart my daughter's cell phone is found that means there's something criminal. there's something criminal. and i had such high hopes that maybe we would find her and she would be alive. i just don't think that's going to happen. >> pull a piece of paper out of the file and said do you know what this is? that's her phone. >> what goes through your mind when you see that phone? >> any emotions possible. i am hoping that maybe there's a

finger print that shouldn't be on there not my sister or the twins. >> i hope it's in a condition they can retrieve something from it. >> she fears the worst finding the cell phone means her daughter may be dead. they are hoping the discovery of the film will help authorities find out what happened to her sister. we continue with lauren erickson and attorney matt morgan. any tips at all from the finding of the phone anything that you know about? >> i know that they are searching through that phone with their technical teams and everything within orlando police department. i honestly don't know if they found anything or what they found at this point. >> do you share your mom's belief that your sister may be dead? >> i mean, i would be a liar if i said it hadn't crossed my mi. i don't have anything out there

evidence wise my hope is right there hoping i am going to see her again one day. >> do you think dale smith unionor who hasn't her fee an day the throwing of the engagement was breaking off the engagement. do you think that he could have done this alone? pick up the twins, kill michelle dispose of her body her vehicle and go -- >> that's a big one. i think as of right now nobody has been raised. i mean there is a main suspect but that's not to say that person did that or the sequence of ef vens you described actually happened. i have nothing showing me that that did or did not happen. my mind is still open. i want to find my sister.

i am going to worry about the whos and what is later. i am foe soak cussed on finding my sister. >> i have p come to terms with this unfortunate possibility. it is something my whole family is being faced with. i would wish upon nobody living on this earth to have to go through what my family is going through. i know there are many families have. it has crossed my mind. >> matt what do you want to tell our viewers about this case right now? >> geraldo at this point the most important thing i could request of your viewers is contribute to a trust we have established for the rescue efforts of michelle as well as the children. they can access that trust at for the people.com.

proceed go directly into the trust. they don't have to worry about third parties. >> as long as you can swear to us dale smith junior won't get his hands on any of that money. >> i can swear to you that dale smith will not get any of the funds. they go directly towards the rescue effort and to michelle's children. >> thank you lauren very much. give my regards to yvonne and kiss the grand babiebabies. tim tebow what a man. through a td tax his teammates have a 51 yard field goal. hard to not think that god

>> good morning, everyone. hope you had a fantastic weekend. it's monday, december 12, 2011. i'm gretchen carlson. thank you so much for sharing your time with us today. president obama gets some bad news on his approval ratings but he says he's not surprised. >> i would be surprised if the american people felt satisfied right now. >> so will he need more time to satisfy the american people? more from his latest interview coming up on our show. >> meanwhile, only two candidates have rsvped to the trump debate two days after christmas. does that mean the donald will have to give the debate the axe? he joins us live this hour. we'll ask him. he's behind newt gingrich. >> 'tis the season to be jolly