please always remember, the spin stops right here. we are definitely looking out for you. two weeks and a day is all that remain before the iowa caucus. i'm fred thompson in for this evening for my good friend sean. right now its three way con treasury between romney, gingrich and paul. depending on what poll you are looking at that any of those candidates could come away with a win. over the weekend, the state's largest newspaper announced an endorsement of one of those men, that being mitt romney. however, the former house speaker didn't appear to be too upset that the des moines

register decided not to side with his campaign. >> i'm actually delighted because the manchester union leader which is conservative newspaper endorse need. des moines register did not endorse me which is liberal. i think it indicates who is the conservative is in the race. >> also the tea party patriots organization conducted a straw poll. speaker gingrich easily won the survey with 31% of the votes. in second was michelle bachmann followed by mitt romney with 20%. join me here in the studio to talk about all of this and the latest developments on the campaign trail is author of the children's book "doves go to washington." dick morris. tell me one thing. why would dubs goes to washington.

>> it's the irish football team. so you have to go to the fights and monuments to find it. in the course of it you learn how great america is. what the iwo jima was conquered by the u.s. marines in one of the most famous scenes. when we meet the soldiers, people say thanks and dubs wag their tails. [ laughter ] >> more on capitol hill. >> it's not in book stores. >> all right. you've always got some kind of insight that others don't have into what is going on. most everybody is talking about the newspaper endorsements and latest polls. what are the dynamics as far as you are concerned. what sticks out to you as maybe something there does not meet everybody's eye? >> the entire process of politics particulars is very

much like the battlefield where stealth technology has to prevail. if they see you, they kill you. first, we saw trump and mitch daniels and some of the non-candidates fall down. then we saw michele bachmann rise and fall. rick perry rise and fall. herman cain rise and fall and the new has slipped a bit, about 10 points in the national polling. it's because when you get all of that scrutiny. when you are the front-runner and you get all that scrutiny and everybody is unleogdz you, you drop. gingrich's case, he doesn't have the organization to fall back on or the financial means to answer $10 million of negative ads for getting dumped on his head. there is a saving grace. he may be bailed out by ron paul. these polls show ron paul very strong. the ppp paul shows him leading

and another poll show i am right up there. he would be horrific. he is a screwball. he would dismantle our patriot act. doesn't mind if crein gets the bomb. they are saying what are we about to do, so they will start dumping on paul. i think some of the candidates will shift their fire to paul which should be redemption for newt. the stealth thing is doing great. romney sits back and everybody takes it. he is tolerantly patient when they rise, but he remains standing. i think what is likely to happen here, i think romney will win iowa and he'll then win new hampshire. my bet is voters have remorse. they say romney care, he was pro-choice. then newt may come back in south

carolina and florida will be the first decisive contest. the race has a way to go but it's fascinating to watch how romney has survived in everybody else's shadow. >> with the focus on newt, romney is getting a free pass. there was a story on the "new york times" today about bing capital and goodness what they'll come up with there especially the "new york times." i have never seen the onslaught of negative activity one candidate in this short period of time in my life what newt has endured. for a guy who is supposed to be erratic. he is pretty cool. people out in the country don't realize what is going against him. ron paul apparently has made it his mission to take him down. >> $10 million in negative ads

against the guy. he can be a little bit on the arrogant side. there is wonderful prize of the wife of prime minister during world war i, these said a clever chap but his brains have gone to his head. [ laughter ] >> you don't want somebody arrogant. >> i do think he understands he is the brightest guy in the room. you have to be arrogant to run for president but to hide it as best you can. do you think that would be the beginning and end of ron paul in iowa if he were to win it? >> if he won it, he would be destroyed. >> how about the last debate and the iran and how they are entitled to the bomb and it was our fault. if iowa gives him a victory after that performance, does

that say anything about iowa. >> it really does. you have to realize politicians in washington don't, but isolation ssm a huge force in american politics. we can never defeat it at polls. eisenhower extinguished and pearl harbor extinguished it in the democratic party. but you have 40% of this country that wants nothing to do with the rest of the world. none of those were victims of 9/11. many of whom didn't want to have anything to do with the rest of the world. the world had a lot to do with them. i think it is so crucial we understand when a candidate like ron paul talks about our isolationism and weakening us and economic ideas are terrible, too. he wants to go to a gold standard. it prolonged the great

depression because we couldn't issue currency unless it was backed by gold so we couldn't have a money supply. the fed has gone crazy printing money but there is something between what fed is doing and prohibition what ron paul wants. dick morris. thank you so much. frank luntz is here but first, well the death of kim jong-il could lead to increased instability on the peninsula, what will it mean to the u.s.? liz cheney reacts next. at bank of america, we're lending and investing in communities across the country, from helping to revitalize a neighborhood in brooklyn

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the pentagon is keeping a close eye on the korean peninsula following the death of kim jong-il. north korea test fired two ballistic missiles off the east coast today elevating concerns that his passing could trigger unusual military activity in the region. earlier this afternoon secretary of state hillary clinton reacted to the news. >> we both share a common interest in a peaceful and stable transition in north korea as well as ensuring regional peace and stability. we reiterate our hope with improved relations for the people of north korea and remain deeply concerned about their well-being. >> joining me now for this

developing situation is the chair of keep america safe, former secretary of state, liz cheney. thanks for being with us. >> thanks for having me. >> my pleasure. fear of instability, what is that all about? a transition is taking place. is it fact we don't know who is going to wind up in charge causing people to go on alert and meetings with the japanese and south koreans in the area? >> yeah, any time you have a leadership shift like the one we are experience experiencing in north korea. there are concerns. in the case of north korea it may well be we won't see much of a difference at all. you've got the brother-in-law of kim jong-il who has long been had headed of the military and headed nuclear program who is

likely to continue in that position. the problem is people shouldn't take false comfort from the possibility that the stat us quo will continue because the status quo is not stable. they are one of the worst proliferators of nuclear weapons. a country that is building a nuclear facility in the syrian desert. a country from news reports seems to have sold nuclear technology to xeerns. it's a real concern that remains how do you go about ensuring that the nuclear technology that the north koreans have acquired is not proliferated. >> going back to the stability issue some people are concerned that the military is just not going to let this young kid, he is 26 years old, step up. he hasn't been very long in getting ready for this.

hardly anybody knew him. it's fair to say military is going to call the shots and whether he is going to be a figurehead in the military and military, indeed, call the shots. doesn't that complicate our situation? wondering what kim was up to, now we have many other players in the military that we would have to identify and get their histories and so forth. it seems like the situation may be more complex and complicated. >> it's a very opaque place. there is some sense that sister of kim jong-il and her husband, particularly her husband. they have long continued in leadership positions. they are not sure what the 27-year-old will play but at the

end of the day, i get nervous when i hear analysts over the course of the day since we got the news, now is the time for increased engagement. now is the time for us to open up. now is the time for us to somehow reach out a hand of engagement in the idea we'll have a new option here. i think it's just the opposite. we're likely to see continued threat that north korea poses. i would feel more comfortable if i saw this administration putting more focus and emphasis on the problem of nuclear pro had live raise. i would like to see our republican candidates talk more about it. i think the opaque nature of this regime where you got a clear history where they pocket concessions from the west. they pocket benefits from the west. then they continue to break whatever agreements they've made with us, whether in six-party talks or clinton administration

and march forward and pursue their nuclear program, plutonium program and now a uranium enrichment program. it's a dangerous regime and will continue to be so. >> 2 million people starved to death there. probably the only country in the history of modern world that has broken every agreement it's made made with anybody and also with the united states of america. i was wondering when hillary clinton said to take this career we hope for improved relations. >> yeah. >> isn't it true just a more mo or two ago some of our people were meeting with their people and exploring the possibilities

of reopening talks leading to the six-party talks again? is there any indication they have changed their mind with or without kim jong-il? >> no, not at all. it really is, if you go back and look at the history. you can see in a sense, the north koreans have been trained because whether it's the clinton administration or frankly the bush administration, when in the aftermath of the discovery they had been building a nuclear reactor, state removed them from the terrorism list in exchange what steps they were supposed to take. i don't know many people were surprised that it was clear they broken those promises and we had approximately 2,000 centrifuges spinning at their site. i do worry what happens is the west is so anxious to try to open relations, we end up giving them benefits which just frankly buys them more time and space to develop their programs or their

people starve. we should send a tough message to cline. we need to make clear that stopping the north korean nuclear program is top priority for us. if the chinese wants to be responsible, they need to get on board. they certainly have not in the past helped us in the way they ought to help us. it's clear we need leadership in this country that will bring back american prestige around the world, bring back american credibility. put us back in a position people don't view our words as empty threats because i'm afraid they too often do now. we need to make clear we'll stand with our friend and that our enemies will pay a price and we won't stand for nuclear proliferation. liz, thank you so much for being with us. >> and frank luts is here and another poll and another reason

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welcome back to hannity. as we close in on the primary

season, political attack ads are starting to hit the airwaves. which ads are working and which ones are not working, pollster frank luntz. >> we go back to 1994 when i first ran for the senate. >> it's great to sit beside you. >> i must have listened to what you had to say. >> thank you. probably i should have probably quit. [ laughter ] >> listen, you told us about what attack ads do not work. what sort of ads do work? >> some of them we're seeing right now. i brought two with me. the first one, it's an attack against president obama and why this one is so powerful, that you get to hear the words of the culprit spoken in plain english.

>> first governor, to pass an economic recovery plan for his state he was an ally to develop a national recovery plan. >> what we heard from john, what we needed to do. >> he is the smartest guy that i know in terms of the economy and finance, i really mean this. john was right. >> john was right. >> john was right. >> wow. >> you got to love joe biden. you got biden praising him but that and what corzine did and they don't like it. >> so billion dollars of investor money, right? >> this is like solyndra. they think the politics and the

corruption are all tied together. the president and vice president tied together in the video and that is why those lines are off the charts. >> i wondered if knew enough people knew who jon corzine was. apparently so. >> they have gotten to know who he is. they will see him a lot. that is what you are going to see. when you have video of the president or the vice president either on the attack or defending something and then you realize there is a story behind the story, that is when you have a credible ad. we have a second one that doesn't do, as well. obama administration is doing everything it can to undermine mitt romney. here is there best shot. let's take a listen. >> john mccain, george bush and president obama all released names they have relied on to raise millions of dollars for their presidential campaign, but

not mitt romney. when mitt romney left the massachusetts governor's office e-mails were destroyed and computer hard drives went out with the top aide. it was to cover his tracks cost taxpayers $100,000. all this raises one important question, what is mitt romney hiding? >> the key part of that ad is that last sentence, what is mitt romney hiding? i've been showing some of the ads of newt gingrich because they are having an impact. the romney ads have clearly functioned as negative to hold him down as voters change their minds but that ad is trying to add a sense of doubt, a sense of concern. they don't have to beat him now and they have to weaken him. >> it seems like in that ad they

are talking about apples and oranges a little bit. who you are contributors are in presidential campaign is one thing but what you are doing back in the governor and wiping your computers clean has nothing to do with that. >> it's harder to understand. >> and negative ad play into something that the viewer already suspects. i don't think people suspect that romney is a shady character. >> that is why they are trying to create it, they've got solyndra and corzine, what obama people is the third shoe to drop. one is be a rigs and two is a trend and three is the proof. they are scared to death there is another one out there. some company they helped or something that obama has said for someone that has a shady past. politics and money intersect and someone gets rich off the suffering of others.

american people say no way. >> obama can't talk about the economy. he can't talk about his record. is that what he's about when he says he wants to raise a billion dollars. is it going to be negative ads like we've never seen before. >> yes, and we did a survey for way-in. people said stop the negative advertising. to them it's not facts based, it's not evidence, it's simply cheap shots. when you get that percentage climbing, the public says no way. >> as you said, newt gingrich is undergoing an onslaught from several different sources. the state of iowa, i would say it's holding him, you say it's holding him down. to what extent? >> significantly. he is still winning almost every state in the country. his numbers are still very solid

nationally but in iowa they have come down because, how can you survive when every time you turn on the television there is two or three or four ads per hour. and they are from different sources. you ran for the presidency, i asked you regret it. i don't know how you suntd your family and friends to what is grueling and you can't respond, no matter what you say there is ten against you. >> isn't it interesting that gingrich is supposed to be a loose cannon guy and while the ads are run he is most calm and collected. >> most people thought he won the debate. any viewers that want to come and sign up and participate, turn these meters and react to these dials or participate in one of our focus groups, go to luntz global.com. every time i do the show we get two or three,000 people to sign

up. we have a list of quarter million people that want to participate. >> you will be businessman. >> with no voice left. >> thank you frank. coming up a new poll should have president obama pretty nervous about his reelection. expert pollsters are here are with reaction. stay with us.

>> fred: a lot of attention is

being paid to the republican primary polls but the most telling number heading into the 201012 is the president's -- 2012. they disapprove of president obama's job performance while 47% of the voters approve of his performance. joining us now with analysis of this and tell us which gop candidates are best suited to take down president obama next year, pollster scott rasmussen and do you go schone. thank you for being with us. where do we start. tell us where we are in terms of the president's approval ratings. i gave you the numbers, what do they mean? >> the president is vulnerable. his number is below 50%. he'll get 47% of the vote but republicans shouldn't get too

cocky because there is not a lot of yardage between them. if the economy gets stronger he could be strong position. >> i agree what scott said. as unpopular president obama is, the republicans are arguably more unpopular. if you listen to what david axelrod said today, the white house is prepared to run a strong negative campaign against the republicans generally and the house republicans in particular labeling them intransigent in the fight of the payroll tax cut. >> fred: that is what he needs the billion dollars for. >> you can't make an argument that has improved the country and put us on the right track, most or 75% or more we're on the wrong track so it will be divisive negative campaign. >> here is why the campaign during 2008, 43% of the

americans said their finances have shape. the number is at 30% today. you can't answer a question are you better off today in any manner that looks good for president obama. it will be a very negative campaign all around. >> fred: so that is why the president doesn't want a referendum but a comparison? >> yes, it will be a comparison. president benefits from a long drawn out primary contest. he wants the republicans can beat themselves up so he can beat up selectively republicans gingrich and romney like he is doing. >> fred: he should be happy, shouldn't he? >> i think there is a confidence in the white house that may be slightly out of place but not totally undeserved. >> fred: they beat each other up in the state of iowa. what do the numbers mean? we obviously understand the 50%

but we look at the approval numbers, we look at unemployment numbers, right track, wrong track numbers, historically speaking what should the president be most concerned about as he looks at other presidents' success and failure and the most happy about? >> you i think scott was exactly right. you look at economic indicators, they are negative and people's perceptions are even more negative. solid majority will say they are worse off now and that is bad for a president seeking reelection. >> what the president should hope for a reasonable third party candidate. so if he has 47% and credible third party challenge that becomes difficult for the republicans to win. >> i'm working with the americans elect.org which is looking to put a balanced party

on the ballot. i think if we get a third party, i hope we do it can draw evenly if from both parties and it could surprise. perot led the race in 1992, i think a credible third party, an independent candidate could surprise a lot of people and be very competitive. >> are you asking in these polls how they would view a third party candidacy. is it any different? >> we ask about it an awful lot. republicans say we can't have a third party because it will split our vote. when you ask, twleik see a third party somewhere in the near future, a lot of people say yes. but when you get right down to it and talking about election 2012, republicans are saying, if you vote for a third party all you is doing is re-elect barack obama. >> fred: and unemployment numbers might be high on election day but if they are improving. i think about reagan in '84.

numbers were high but they were improving. >> the lesson from 1984, year before the election, walter mondale and reagan were tied in the polls and then reagan won 49 states because the economy was a rip roaring success. we won't have a economy like that, but if it does get better the president will do better. >> fred: nationally, republican primary, what are the latest numbers. i understand we have come. gallup poll, gingrich 26, romney 24. paul, 11. >> newt is coming down. on he is getting attacked heavily in iowa. his numbers are down in the teens where he had a 10-15-point lead. it's a question whether paul or romney is leading there. it's a dead heat between romney

and gingrich. >> in iowa is where it matters right now. ron paul and romney will be the top tier. we don't know who else will join them. it could be perry, bachmann, santorum could leave iowa feeling good or feeling very bad. >> fred: thank you very much. your book, quickly. >>" mad as hell," i'm the tea party. >> great american panel is next. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade.

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>> fred: tonight on our great american panel, former assistant secretary of state and columnist and five co-host, bob beckel. lead singer and founding member of the marshal tucker band who celebrated their 40th anniversary. doug gray joins us. she is the host of nbc's poker after dark and appears in playboy magazine, leanne tweet joins us. thank you for being with us. not enough stories s in playboy. >> first of all, the funny thing was, when leanne was in playboy she came to do the show with hannity. when they are walking down the

hall, just give me the story. they handed the story and i'm looking at the pictures, and hannity says look at that and he denies looking at the pictures. playboy has mild to what is else out there. >> fred: that is what i hear. let's change the subject. boston times newspaper is already talking presidential. apparently somebody has decided that but he has floated condoleezza rice's name. she is not being negative apparently. some of her friends seem to think she would be very interested in it.

we asked you what you think in terms of a vice presidential nominee. do you have a favorite? >> condy rice, i like mark rubio. condy i love she loves sports and she wanted to be the n.f.l. commissioner. but talk about foreign policy experience, a woman who has traveled and worked for different administrations. she is a woman so i think that would be good for the republican party. the woman knows her stuff. she can debate right there with the rest of them. she would be good help for whoever is going to be gop nominee. >> fred: great off set to a nominee who did not too much experience in foreign policy. >> i agree. >> fred: what about it. >> my opinion, okay, rick perry carries on a lot of weighted in

texas. could be a whole country in itself. >> if he is a good man. >> he to take this. guess what? then you got somebody that can really do something. he's not going to bet $10,000, but at the same time he has a wife that can help be good. he might be slow a certain things but i'm slow on a lot of things. >> you and i burned our brains out. >> i drank too much even to begin what you were talking about. my background is in politics association on this one, there is only one choice, only one and that is rubio. if you take florida out of the democratic column you take the electoral 270 that much more difficult you have to win ohio which is going to be difficult to do and sweep the upper midwest states, pennsylvania all

the way to the wisconsin. not only that, but on hispanics the democrats after bush, bush got 40% of the hispanic vote. mccain got only 30%. you can't take the largest growth group in the country and turned them off the way republicans have done. >> fred: what do you make of newt-romney dynamic over the immigration issue. when newt said, couple that had been here, show some compassion and all that. mitt accused him of being for amnesty. does that represent the kind or the choices the republican nominee is going to have to make? let's put it another way. can any republican nominee because of what you said afford not to agree that with the

25-year-old family? >> they can't afford in a general election. they can get away with anything in the primary. but to appeal to the primary voters and he is going to have to get back in the middle. in process he has alienated a lot of hispanics. i think newt was prejudging of getting in the nomination. when i put a $1,000 on you thompson, it cost me a fortune by the time it was over. >> fred: i don't think that money ever got to me. >> that's right. >> fred: it's not too late. >> i get a sense of romney, what they put up gingrich is massive anti-newt in iowa. i think mitt romney is being forced fed. it's like a bad marriage but you have to. >> fred: rick perry from texas,

hispanic vote. >> we'll be comeback in just a second. more with the great american panel right after the break. as . i'm on an aspirin regimen now because i never want to feel that helplessness again. [ male announcer ] be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. talk to your doctor, and take care of what you have to take care of. is all the wrapping a gift needs. wait a minute...i... [ laughs ] [ male announcer ] the lexus december to remember sales event is here, but only for a limited time. see your lexus dealer.

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>> fred: you mentioned marco rubio, we heard him before. he would be the perfect or bob

would say the perfect vice presidential situation because of florida. i've been listening to what he has been saying. he says no. not everybody says no but at the time, i'm not sure that he is going to watch a nominee be out there really hard on this issue and then come in to try to save the bacon. >> he would be the most ideal person. >> i talked to him last week. he said exactly that. he said, you know, i asked him about the hispanic, my party doesn't understand this very well. frankly it's tough to pick up the pieces. it may be but it's an awfully tempting thing. >> if everybody gets together and convince them. i think he could do very well. i think one thing the republican party is lacking is that young

hispanic guy or even a young person. most people think of republicans as old white guys. that is changing. >> there is a lot of truth to that. >> an aging group. [ laughter ] >> but hispanic senator from florida can do a lot of good for the party. >> fred: let's change the subject. there is a public policy poll. left wingers. they have now said that ron is taking the lead in iowa. he is 23% to romney's 20% and 14% for gingrich. but i must say that several of these other polls, they got paul up there. what is the deal with this guy? he is talking about iran needs the bomb and it's our fault and they are entitled to it.

that the end of that. then i pick up this. what is going on. >> it's real scary. it's the amount of money to make this person or that person looking bad and we have combinations of people doing it. i think once you get to new hampshire the ball will really be rolling. >> you have to be careful with ron paul. he reminds me, a fervent group of supporters and lots of money. this time he is not running for reelection. if he wins in iowa and secondly if he gets out and runs as an independent but would be frightening thing. it reminds me of pat robertson in 1988, and he blew right past bush and came in second place. he had the coalition base. i've been on the other end of the paul people and they don't let you go. >> he did say he would not run

as an independent. you think he would? >> nobody is going to say they are running as an independent when they are running for republican nomination. to give iran the bomb? do you know what he is going to do. >> very discretionary. >> fred: what is the source of his appeal to the independent? >> i don't know, i think a lot of people, he wants to bring all the resources of the military to protect the home front. he doesn't think we should be around the world with our military might in different countries. >> somebody made the point, if there has any biden strain of the republican party it's been protectionist. sometimes it's small and large but short-sighted and all that. >> he is a libertarian who

believes that you ought to come home. you get government out of the way. he is for legalizing drugs which we probably would have thought a good idea years ago. it's got a following. >> it's not going to work. >> fred: now you are off of tim tebow's case. saturday night live was doing a job on him. >> i think it's horrible. i find that whole thing was despicable. one thing i give him credit she bringing commercialization to our lord and savior. >> he a great guy. he has excellent values. seems like the world want to talk about it. >> fred: thank you for being with us. that is all the time this evening. thank you for your time.