jon: well, we hope your 2012 is off to a great start. thanks for joining us. jenna: a lot of good football today. and more cover an on fox news, "america live" starts right now. megyn: fox news alert, a republican battle for the undecided voter right here in iowa. just one day to go before the first contest of the elections season, and there's a large number of caucus goers still unsure of who they want in the white house. welcome to a special edition of "america live," everyone, i'm megyn kelly live right here in the beautiful statehouse in des moines, iowa. you can see the little bell right behind me, and this is where it all takes place, all eyes on iowa as six of the seven presidential candidates make their final rounds hoping for a big turnout tomorrow. huntsman not bothering with iowa, he says they pick corn, not presidents. so far this race is still up for grabs, folks, and the polling we

have seen could still take a significant turn. the latest des moines register poll shows mitt romney at the top with 24% of the vote followed by ron paul at 22%, both within the margin of error, and rick santorum surging into third place now with 15% and momentum at exactly the time you want it going into this contest. but the big sign of volatility in this race is the 41% of likely caucus goers who say they could still be persuaded to change their minds. almost half of the populace is still unsure of who they will vote for tomorrow night. john roberts is with the mitt romney campaign and they, too, after weeks and months of giving iowa a sort of back of the hand treatment or sort of trying to lay the foundation for the argument that they didn't try that hard here have done a 180 in this state, and they are going all out. john? >> reporter: they are trying really hard right now, megyn. we should point out that a large number of those 41% of

undecideds are right here in this room in dubuque as mitt romney is trying to make the closing argument with iowa voters that he is the one that they should put over the top in tomorrow night's caucuses. over the top at tomorrow's caucuses. talked to a lot of people here. only one made up his mind. it is about electability. another fellow says to win all he needs to do tell more kardashian jokes as he did in council bluffs criticizing president obama's leadership, his commitment to the promises he made in 2008 are same as kim kardashian's promises to fidelty and marriage were. mitt romney has been hammering president obama on his record the past four years reminding people how they used to worry about what they use to do on weekend in terms of where you take your kids to see the movies as opposed to if you have enough food on the table to last the entire weekend. he is painting a portrait

how america would be with mitt romney in the white house. here is what he said this morning in davenport. >> this is an election about the soul of america. will we remain america the shining city on the hill with freedom and opportunity or will we become something we couldn't recognize? >> reporter: mitt romney would certainly like to win the iowa caucuses. he doesn't need to because he is doing sew well in the polls in new hampshire. he has a couple of stumbling blocks. his popularity ceiling appears to be 25%. that is what he got in 2008 when he lost to mike huckabee. that is what he is polling at now. in order to win iowa he has to do one of two things. he has to get more of fiscal conservatives to support him after the caucuses or he has to hope to peel off the social conservatives who are throwing share support behind people like rick santorum, rick perry and michele bachmann. megyn: john, thank you. that is it one of the main goals for mitt romney tonight, trying to peel off

some of those voters who seem to be throwing their support at this hour behind a surging rick santorum. the presidential contender meeting with voters as well in iowa. now seeing packed audiences wherever he goes. overflow crowds spilling out the door for him. for months rick santorum was polling in the low single digits. now according to the "real clear politics" average, he has more than quadrupled his support in the past 30 days and is within striking distance of mitt romney and ron paul t would be a major story if rick santorum were to win iowa if he comes in the top three. i think his campaign will take that as well according to what they said. in the meantime, former frontrunner here in iowa newt gingrich is meeting at this hour with voters in walford, iowa. what a roller-coaster for gingrich over past couple months. "real clear politics" average finding he soared from 4% to the lead at 31% in early december only to fall back to 14% or fourth

place today. whatever happens tomorrow night speaker gingrich is promising to take his to new hampshire and beyond. joining me now to dissect some of this is fox news digital politics editor chris stirewalt. he is also in des moines. chris, thanks for being here. let's start with what we led the show with which is 41% of folks still undecided. who does that help? >> well it depends on who shows up to caucus tomorrow. that's the big question, megyn. that is the number one variable. we're trying to figure out. we're chris costing the -- chris costing the state. do you go caucus. you hear a closing argument from the surrogates in the campaign. they will talk at the two-hour event that happens at all 99 counties across the state. are undecided voters still going to go? if undecided voters do go there is chance people like rick perry, like newt gingrich, who have broad based appeal but don't have

a die-hard core can take advantage of undecided voters being there. conversely if the undecided voters stay home, ron paul and rick santorum who have hardcore base, these supporters with them no matter what they could really take advantage of a low turnout night. megyn: talk about the process and how important that will be, chris to the folks who are still trying to make up their minds or the folks, because a lot of folks said i made up my mind but i still could be persuaded to vote for somebody else and tomorrow night that could happen. >> so when we think about voting in america we think about a solemn, solemn process where you go into a room, you go into a booth, you close the curtain and you make a decision. it is just between you and god and that's it. this is different. this is a social activity. this is where you go and you see who else thinks like you do. who else is with you. that is why the process is very significant here because you go and you want to be with, a, a large enough group to look like it is going to be consequential

in the final tally and two, people that look like you, sound like you and reflect your values. challenge for ron paul, he has a lot of college supporters and a lot of people coming from out-of-state to be there but are they going to show the look, the demographic look people in iowa feel comfortable with? rick santorum, all of his people are right here, faith leaders, evangelical christians, orthodox catholics that are for him. they will certainly look like their neighbors. megyn: chris stirewalt, thank you, sir. see you later. later here on "america live", an insider's look into the final hours before the iowa caucuses with the hawkeye state republican governor terry branstad who will join us live. live coverage begins tomorrow at 6:00 p.m. with "special report" at 7:00 and shepard and i will be back on 8:00 p.m. eastern time with special coverage throughout the night as the results begin. as the caucuses begin and

results come in. get all the latest reports, analysis and your complete guide to the candidates and where they stand right now at your front row seat to politics that is foxnews.com. fox news alert coming in right now. mount rainier passion narc under heavy security right now as washington state police search for the man who shot and killed a park ranger. investigators say iraq war veteran, benjamin barnes is a person of interest in this shooting. the gunman sped through a check point yesterday and fired a weapon when margaret anderson tried to block her truck with his vehicle. he ran into the woods. police say barnes was a suspect in another shooting that left two people critically injured at a house party near seattle. the mother of his child says he is suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder. we're tracking another developing story that has alarm bells ringing from israel to washington as iran flexes some military muscle,

test firing three missiles in war games near the straight of harm sues, a key transit point for oil shipments. the launch said to include a advanced cruise missile. jennifer griffin live from the pentagon. >> reporter: tomorrow is the last day of 10 games of war games carried out by iran's revolutionary guard near the strait of hormuz. here is look at escalating rhetoric and actions. today as you mentioned iran tested three missiles including one it said it was a long range surface-to-surface missile. the gaud ghader was introduced in september. it is not a long-range missile hitting israel for example. it could threaten u.s. navy ships in the busy strait of hormuz and in the persian gulf but its range is short of the 150 miles needed to strike the u.s. navy's fifth fleet based in bahrain. much of this bell link rans could be a bluff according to to a former national security adviser to

president bush. >> we seen they have photo shopped photographs of missile tests before to make it look more impressive than it actually is. i would take all this with a grain of salt. i think it is mainly posturing. it is gamesmanship and meant to send the messageage that the iranians will not simply sit back while their oil is sanctioned. >> reporter: the drills were designed to practice taking control of the strait of hormuz which the u.s. would consider an act of war. all this sabre-rattling comes one day after the iranians surprised u.s. ups announcing they moved further along in their nuclear program claiming to perfect a nuclear fuel rod. that announcement came after president obama signed legislation on saturday that would possibly sanction iran's central bank and its oil exports. there are waivers attached to the law that the president can invoke if he thinks such sanctions would cause the price of oil to rise. just the threat of those sanctions, megyn, caused iran's currency to plummet

by 12%. prices in iran have risen by 40% in the past year. megyn? megyn: jennifer griffin, thank you. republicans are rolling out a new plan for taking on president obama in the general election. >> change we can believe in tomorrow. not change we can believe in next week. this country can't take four more years of the same failed politics. it is time to try something new. megyn: using the president's own words against him. fair strategy? we'll debate it. thousands of dead birds falling from the sky in a small town for the second year in a row. what is causing that? new developments on that wild arson spree in los angeles. today's potential break in the case. stay with us. live from des moines. >> perspective, many have asked what keeps us up at night? i can tell you that the acts we've seen over the last 72 hours here in these communities have kept these

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megyn: police in new york city are investigating a series of attacks that appear to target houses of worship. they say at least three gasoline bombs were thrown at several buildings in queens including this islamic center. the home apparently used for hindu services was also targeted. no injuries were reported but at least two homes

caught fire. it took 60 firefighters more than 40 minutes to contain the fires. well, conventional wisdom there are only three tickets out of iowa. everyone else is done but the way this 2012 primary is laid out some analysts believe we could see the candidates hang in there a whole lot longer than in campaigns past. larry sabato is director of the center for politics at the university of virginia. larry, is that true? do you believe that it's set up in a way now that we're going to have six, five, who knows how many, but many candidates hang in there for longer than just maybe iowa and new hampshire? >> megyn, i think the incentives are all stacked in favor of the candidates staying in. first, you've got the four big contests in january. why would anybody get out before iowa, new hampshire, south carolina and at the end of january, florida?

look, even if they didn't have money or the money dried up because they didn't do well in iowa, they could live off the land. don't forget, megyn, they all remember one thing. tim pawlenty probably got out way too soon. lightning might have struck him as it did so many other candidates along the way had he stayed in. megyn: but isn't the real reason they get out because of money? i mean, it takes money to run these campaigns and get advertisements on. while you may be able to stay in can you do so effectively without dough in the coffers? >> it is amazing how little you need. look at rick santorum. he has had next to nothing yet he is the candidate who is surging right prior to iowa. again, it is an individual by individual judgment. and the candidate has to make the call but they are by nature optimists, megyn. they see a pile of you know what and they find the pony. they're very, very good at this.

megyn: but isn't it, frankly, is it embarrassing for them to stay in if they continue on in sixth place or fifth place? how long, if you come in fifth or sixth in iowa, come in fifth orth in new hampshire and south carolina, at some point don't you have to say this is getting humiliating? >> a at some point you absolutely do. at some point after the first big four in january, if somebody is done very poorly and they're in single digits for all four they probably reached that point. i say this at really as a complyment to the candidates because they're tough. they're not easily embarrassed. it takes a lot more to embarass a candidate for president than it may take to embarass you or me. megyn: is there something special about this year, other than the condensed schedule, that is leading these candidates to stay in? what comes to mind is in particular the numerous debates. i mean the platform that they have been given by the

national media to get their message out there, irrespective whether they can afford advertising? >> exactly, you've got a couple of debates coming up just before new hampshire. there will be more between new hampshire and south carolina, and more between south carolina and florida. this is invaluable national exposure. you never know when a candidate is going to really well or when the main opponent or opponents will shoot themselves in the foot with a terrible gaffe. so, again, the incentives are all for staying in. it doesn't cost you anything to participate in the debates, assuming the networks will let you in. megyn: how can, i mean, how frequent is it that success in an early state like iowa or new hampshire, if a candidate wins or performs better than expected, how common is it for that candidate to then receive an influx of cash? >> it can happen. it usually does happen. it takes a while to organize but, you know, i've had people argue to me, for example, that if santorum

winsr comes close in iowa, he will find more money in his mail box from conservative groups in the week following iowa than he as had in the entire campaign so far. so money, you can get the money. the problem is, getting the infrastructure in place, the organization in place. getting good ads made. getting people on the ground. that is the tough part. megyn: some folks out here in iowa are saying it is still anybody's ball game because there's such a cluster of candidates within striking distance of one another. even the two front runners are not far out from the next cluster of candidates. do you believe anybody could still win here in iowa, larry, or have you effectively realistically ruled out anybody? >> i think we've got three tiers essentially. at the top tier, you've got santorum, romney and paul. in the second-tier you've got gingrich and perry. and frankly the bottom tier, bachmann and huntsman. those are the three tiers.

i'm not saying we can't have a surprise. i always hope for surprises. it stirs the pot but that's the way it appears the day before the caucuses. megyn: it would certainly be the biggest surprise certainly if jon huntsman wins the state, he mocked, not campaigned in and completely blown off. if that is the headline tomorrow night i think we'll get some wide eyeballs, larry, thank you. >> thanks a lot megyn. happy new year. megyn: see you soon. it has been being moed, mangled and sung in an pretty awful fashion from time to time but now one lay maker is trying to save "the star-spangled banner" from any further disrespect. we'll show you how. a winter rescue drama when a family car plunges into a icy river and no emergency crews were anywhere in sight. >> the man next to me started yelling, my son, my son is still in the car. he is on the other side. we have to flip the car. and i looked in and i could see his boy, you know, upside down in the water.

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megyn: republican state senator in indiana is getting national attention now as she tries to protect america's national anthem from quote, disrespect. she is introducing a bill that would set specific performance standards for singing and playing "the star-spangled banner". she says she wants the national anthem sung with the right lyrics to the traditional music. performance would be fined $25 if they failed to meet the standards. the measure would apply to public schools and state universities as well as private schools that receive taxpayer money for scholarships. how about that? well, across the country

today new voter i.d. laws are taking effect in several states. the obama administration has blasted the laws, several of them as unfair to minorities. now there is word the aclu is filing a lawsuit to block one such law in at least one state. jim angle, following all this live from our d.c. bureau. >> reporter: hello, megyn. as of today, seven flue state new state laws take effect requiring voters to show a photo i.d. in order to cast a ballot. democrats and republicans have very different view on whether voters should have to prove who they are when voting. >> this is effort to diminish minorities and poor people's in politics. >> you need identification to get into all federal buildings and most, just regular office buildings. you need it to get welfare. you need it to get on an airplane. take the s.a.t. buy liquor, buy cigarettes.

it's, it's sort, ubiquitous. it's crazy to exclude voting too that list of things that you need it for. >> reporter: there would have been eight states with photo i.d.s this year. the justice department blocked south carolina's new law claiming it wit make it harder for minorities and the poor to vote. attorney general holder views voter i.d.s as a way to suppress minority votes. listen. >> the reality in jurisdictions across the country both overt and subtle forms of discrimination remain all too common. >> reporter: as you said, megyn, the aclu filed suit against the law in wisconsin on that basis. nevertheless the supreme court approved the concept of requiring photo i.d.'s to vote by a 6-3 margin back in 2008. and several states have successfully implemented them. the justice department objected to the south carolina law on the basis it would discriminate against those who can not pay for a vote photo i.d.

but don't have transportation to get one. but many states have dealt with that issue. >> georgia did the same thing south carolina has done. south carolina said we'll give i.d. for free to anyone who can't afford one. georgia did the same thing. the courts found that was sufficient to take care of these kinds of problems. >> reporter: and many states allow a provisional vote without a photo i.d. which can challenged later if need be. that is a fail-safe allows everyone to vote. nevertheless the obama justice department opposes such efforts as discriminatory. it will have its hands full, in as much as 34 states have introduced such laws. megyn? megyn: jim, thank you, jangle, all the best. >> reporter: thank you. megyn: remfbl cans think they found their secret weapon against president obama, the president himself. >> so many people who simply don't think they're better off than they were four years ago. >> i don't think they're better off than they were

four years ago we lost our ambition and imagination. gotten a little soft. megyn: will the president's own words hurt his re-election chances? we'll go in depth on the new gop strategy in a fair and balanced debate next. plus iowa's republican governor joins us live in 15 minutes right here to discuss the wildcards we can expect in the final hours leading up to tomorrow's first in the nation caucuses. up next, police have a suspect in a string of arsons but a major city is still gripped by fear and we'll show you why. so who ordered the cereal that can help lower olesterol and who ordered the yummy cereal? yummy. [ woman ] lower cholesterol. [ man 2 ] yummy. i got that wrong didn't i? [ male announcer ] want great taste and whole gin oats that can help lower cholesterol? honey nut cheerios.

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megyn: fox news alert on this string of arson attacks sweeping across los angeles. police are now questioning a man they believe is responsible for setting more than 50 fires since thursday morning. william la jeunesse live in our l.a. bureau with the very

latest. >> reporter: eleven fires last night alone, police arrested this person of interest between 3 and 4 a.m. this morning in hollywood a short distance from one of the fires. he appears in his early 30s, white, a receding hairline and a ponytail. some cops at one of the stations he was brought into reportedly gave him the nickname meatloaf segall. now, his appearance and his clothing match earlier surveillance video captured near one of the fires friday, and he matches witness descriptions of a man leaving the scene of several fires over the weekend. police also seized his van from british columbia. the suspect is a native of germany and may have an immigration dispute with the u.s. detectives also reportedly found materials inside his van consistent with arson. >> they're questioning him at this time to see what he was doing in the area, where he was going, checking to see that his

stories match up, and then looking at what similarities his location was with the fires that occurred. >> reporter: now, many of those fires started inside of automobiles or under the engine block then spread to the garage and apartments. my lack lousily, no -- miraculously, no fatalities or injuries so far. they have not provided the ignition source or the type of accelerants that are used. detectives don't want to prompt the arsonist to change tactics. police are also worried he did not act alone, a dozen fires in a four-hour period is challenging for anyone, and there is no presser scheduled because we know police don't want to make the same mistake they did in that dodger beating case when they announced that they had some suspects, and they were wrong. so they're waiting on that, and the politicians need a few minutes before the cameras and, of course, that would conflict with the rose parade which is

just wrapping up. back to you. megyn: william, thank you. well, here we are on the eve of the iowa awe -- caucuses, and we are getting a sneak peek into the republican party's general election plan to defeat president obama. it starts with some new rnc ads that use mr. obama's own words against him. >> i didn't say change we can believe in tomorrow, not change we can believe in next week. this country can't take four more years of the same failed policies. it's time to try something new! [cheers and applause] megyn: joining me now, brad blakeman and dick harpootlian, chairman of south carolina's democratic party. all right, brad, so apparently there's a group of gopers similar to what we heard about a group of barack obama campaign operatives sitting in a room -- there's two rooms, there's a gop room and a democratic room, and all they do is analyze media.

and the gopers are looking at nothing other than president obama, all the promises he's made and then trying to juxtapose them against what they believe are contradictory facts s. that the effective strategy for the republicans to win back the white house? >> you bet it is. we're going to remind the people what barack obama the candidate and the president said in the past and what he's delivered. he's been an absolute failure on the economy, and we're going to remind people that the president joked off there weren't as many shovel-ready jobs as he thought with the stimulus, the stimulus, remember, that nobody read. the president said he'd tackle immigration in his first year, and he gave us fast and furious, running guns to secure our borders. is that the way we do it? and kills one of our agents? we're going to remind them about health care. it's going to cost us over a trillion dollars, so the democrats are laughing it off saying sticks and stones may break my bones, words will really hurt this president.

megyn: dick, the gop polled on this, which is what politicians do, they polled on it, and they realize that people like president obama personally, but they're on safer ground if they just use his words against him as as opposed to attacking him personally. does this bother you at all? >> not really because i think the people are going to be reminded that when barack obama took over this mess, this country was losing 7 90,000 jobs a month, we are headed towards the great depression number two, and this president has had 21 months, straight months of job growth. the economy is turning around. the problem is the republican party is like bp complaining about how long it's going to take the federal government to clean up the mess they created. do you really want to put these guys back in charge? and that's what barack obama's going to remind people of, that he would have done even better had the republicans over the last year not dug in their heels and prevented him from passing his jobs bill. they want not only him to fail, but this country to fail -- >> nonsense. >> -- and that's going to be the

message that's going to win. >> dick, you're a smart politician. your strategy could be worse is not going to be one that carries the day in november. the american people are going to hold obama's feet to the fire on what he promised and what he didn't deliver. if it wasn't for bad news, this president wouldn't have any news, and it's unfortunate that, again, you go back to blaming the prior administration. it's four years, and the president himself said it in his own words, i don't deserve a second term if i'm not able to deliver on my promises. megyn: that is one of -- [inaudible conversations] megyn: that is one of the promises that -- >> and he has. megyn: -- that they're putting together in the ad campaign that the american people are about to see a whole lot more of. dick, the republicans may come up with this plan, and we're going to see these advertisements but if nominee is mitt romney which is what the democrats are planning for rightly or wrongly, they seem to be putting together a campaign against him saying he's said a lot, too, and what he has said

hasn't always been kilt, is their point -- consistent, is their point. at the end of the day, does it all get lost because one erases the other? >> i think that what's going to happen is, first of all, i'm not so sure it's going to be mitt romney. i'm sitting here in south carolina, and he doesn't have a ground game here, he doesn't have the pr here that newt and the others have had, and newt's taken off the gloves. we're looking forward to blood on the ground here in the next three weeks, and i think you're going to see mitt romney not able to take a punch. i'm hoping he's the nominee because i know watching him in '08 that he can't take a punch. the guy does not have the ability to deliver. he's got -- he's pro-abortion, anti-abortion. he's pro-intervention, against intervention. he's pro-t.a.r.p., he's against t.a.r.p.. he's the guy we want to run against. megyn: that's the question, brad -- >> you may get your wish. megyn: mitt romney admits he's changed his views on abortion. he doesn't necessarily cop to some of the changes that members of the media and pretty call

an -- political analysts say he's flipped on, but president obama made promises he, arguably, didn't mic -- make good on, but are people left with the impression that he's a flip-flopper? >> look, in 2008 americans voted for hope and change. the american people want somebody who can deliver on the economy. newt gingrich and others and mitt romney, rick santorum have laid out a vastly different economic strategy than this president has delivered on. and at the end of the day, it is going to be all about the economy, it's going to be about this president's record and his failure to deliver, and by his own standards he's a failure. he told us when we passed the stimulus unemployment wouldn't rise nationally above 8%. well, it's still above 8%, and it may go higher. and so at the end of the day, dick, you can rail all you want against romney, but there's only one president, a president who made promises and a president who didn't deliver.

megyn: i've got to go, but i'm wondering, dick, do you -- >> can't we hope that the economy gets better? >> yeah, we can hope. >> can't we hope this country moves in the right direction even though it's political season? >> >> likely not. megyn: thanks, guys. >> thanks. megyn: see ya. we're looking forward to south carolina, by the way, dick. it's very cold here in iowa. we're very happy for the hospitable nature of good, old-fashioned iowans, but it's cold. all the predictions for iowa could be in for a big shake-up. in three minutes, iowa's governor joins us live on a couple of simple things that could change tomorrow's caucus results in ways we have not seen in the past caucuses. and a massive manhunt underway for this man after a park ranger is gunned down in cold blood. the disturbing new details we're now learning about the possible gunman. and four little words from new year's eve have turned into a controversy attracting attention from millions.

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megyn: counting down now to iowa. we are weighing a number of scenarios that could significantly change tomorrow night's caucus results. evangelicals, seniors, independents and, yes, democrats. four major groups that could throw off any predictions folks may have about the winning candidate. joining me now is republican governor terry branstad of iowa. thank you so much for being here. >> you welcome. megyn: the building is beautiful -- >> hey, we're glad to have you in the capitol, uss iowa the bell and model right behind you. megyn: it's a pleasure. let's talk about these

contingencies. the latest polls showing 41% of folks are still undecided, and that means it could be anybody's ball game. let's talk about independents and what role they could play. >> first of all, they'd have to reregister as republican to vote in the caucus. megyn: and that's true of democrats? a democrat can walk in -- >> yes, you can change your registration. you can do that on election day here, too, in the primary general election. so, but you do have to be a registered republican at the time that you vote. megyn: okay. >> so i think last time you did see a number of independents voted, actually, in the democratic caucuses. i would expect we'll see 10-15% of independents, but because they're not happy with the direction of the country, they feel betrayed by obama, he promised things and he didn't deliver, he has, in fact, the deficit which he campaigned against has gotten much worse, has gone up a trillion dollars a year every year he's been president, and now we have him attacking the very business people, entrepreneurs that we need to create jobs in the

private sector to revitalize the american economy -- megyn: which way are they likely to break? ron paul has an unusual number of supporters who are democrats or independents. >> yes. i think ron paul has a pretty active network of support among younger people, but also the colleges and universities are gone for their christmas and new year's break. so i don't know if they'll all be back for the caucuses. that's another factor we don't know. it's really hard to say. i do think we're going to have a big turnout, i think it's going to be bigger than four years ago. megyn: do you? >> yeah. last time 119,000 people voted, i think it's going to be 130, maybe even 10,000, so i think it'll be a good turnout. megyn: there was a big talk of values voters last time around, and that helped propel mike huckabee to victory. now this time around they say maybe we'll have less and that the coalition, if there is one, is splintered between perry, santorum, bachmann. do you believe that's right? >> well, i do think -- i think

evangelical voters feel there's a lot of candidates that are very acceptable. i don't think they have necessarily coalesced around one candidate as they did last time with huckabee. huckabee also had quite a personality that attracted a lot of people. he played the guitar, he had a great sense of humor, so he really caught on here. he also was very folksy, rural person from arkansas. this time around i think people have been intrigued by several of the candidates. i think congressman ron paul is going to get his support, but i also think that you're going to see some people go for gingrich because of his ideas and his performance at the debates. rick perry's very good at retail politics, and i think he's coming on in the end here too. santorum has been the one that nobody thought was going to do that well. he did it the old-fashioned way, went to every county -- megyn: you must love that. >> i do. that's the way i think it should

be done. i predicted he's going to do better than expected, i think he will be one of the top three. megyn: but what if we see a ron paul victory, and i should point out ron paul's placing third in the national polls right now as well. but santorum not so much. so what if we see somebody who's not polling at least in one or two nationally, does it marginalize iowa in some way? >> not necessarily. what usually happens, iowa winnows the field, so the top two or three contenders, and if somebody does surprisingly well here, they become the contender that competes with romney then in new hampshire where romney has a substantial lead. megyn: what do you make of romney? because he didn't go, you know, full guns blazing here in iowa initially, but now he seems to have had a change of heart. >> well, i think he finally took my advice. i told him early on, i know they wanted to reduce the expectations because it's all an. megyn: because last time he spent a lot of time and money, and he came in second. >> right. second shouldn't be too bad.

megyn: but they viewed it as a big loss. >> exactly. so he's reduced expectations. he got his campaign headquarters open, he's going to be here caucus night, they've done a bus tour, they're getting big and enthusiastic crowds, so as are the other candidates. megyn: how is that happening? >> i think it's a wide open race. megyn: how's that happening for romney? he's not that socially conservative, but he's considered more moderate than some of the other candidates. is it his perception of being more electable that's winning people over? >> well, i think the fact that he rescued the winter olympics in the salt lake city, he's got a record as being a business person who's made things happen in the private sector, and i think he's got a vision and a plan to reduce the tax and regulatory burdens as have most of the republicans articulated a new direction for america, one that looks to the private sector, not government, to revitalize our economy. megyn: governor, thank you so much for being so hospitable, you and the people of your state.

>> you're welcome. glad to have you here. megyn: all the best. what do you think, folks? is it all wrapped up? does anybody still have a chance? kelly at foxnews.com. coming up, breaking news on this massive manhunt in the wilderness. police say this man killed a park ranger and vanished into the woods of mount rainier national park. seconds ago a possible break in the case. trace gallagher's got that story three minutes away. and you heard it here moments ago, governor mike huckabee came out of iowa like gangbusters in 2008, dominating the caucuses before fading down the stretch. so what advice does governor huckabee have for the candidates in the year? stay tuned. >> what is happening tonight in iowa is going to start really a prairie fire of new hope and zeal, and it's already happening across this nation. because it is about we, we the people. [ male announcer ] cranberry juice? wake up! ♪

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megyn: fox news alert, we've got breaking developments in the shooting death of a park ranger at mount rainier national park yesterday. trace gallagher's got the latest live from our west coast newsroom. >> reporter: king 5 is reporting that this suspect, 24-year-old benjamin barnes, was actually found dead inside mount rainier park a short time ago, but we have been unable to independently confirm that. we are now calling the sheriff's office up there as well as the rangers trying to get this on. keep in mind, this park is 368 square mile, the size of indianapolis. the suspect is known to have survival skills, he is believed to have been armed with a very high-powered rifle, and be police said all along it was very unlikely he would be willing just to give up, but

it's also very cold out there, and he's in deep snow. they're saying that 24-year-old benjamin barnes shot and wounded four people outside of seattle yesterday morning and then he went to mount rainier park, busted through a ranger checkpoint. when one of the rangers cornered him, he opened fire, and he killed ranger margaret anderson after she blocked his way. he then grabbed a rifle, fled into the snow, and he was trying to evade police by using creeks and streams to try and make sure they couldn't follow his footprints in the snow. the entire park remains on lockdown right now. they are still efforting in getting everybody outside that park, and at one point in time more than 100 visitor were on lockdown inside a visitor' center. listen to one of them. >> it was very emotional, up and down because, you know, we didn't know what was going on around us. we'd hear little bits from from other people or from the rangers or, you know, from the cafeteria people, and we kind of tried to

piece it together, but we were pretty much on lockdown. >> reporter: again, the breaking news on this coming from king 5 in seattle saying that 24-year-old benjamin barnes was found dead inside mount rainier park. the cause of death is unknown. when we get breaking information on this, we'll get back to you, megyn. megyn: all right, trace, thank you. well, america's chief justice seeming to take on a health care controversy. john roberts appearing to defend the decision of two colleagues on the u.s. supreme court to hear arguments in the lawsuit over president obama's health care law despite calls for these two to recuse themselves. is the chief justice right? it is an extraordinary for him to do what he did. we'll explain exactly what it was and debate it in kelly's court. plus, it's happening again in one southern town, hundreds of dead blackbirds dropping out of the sky. the possible explanation for it. and the new year ringing in 40,000 new laws across america. 40,000. do we need those?

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plus relieve your stuffy nose. [ deep breath ] thank you! [ male announcer ] you're welcome. that's the cold truth! [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus liquid gels. ♪ oh what a relief it is! ♪ megyn: fox news alert. we are now just hours away from the first votes of the 2012 presidential election and in iowa it could come down to likeability, versus electability. brand new hour here of "america live", special edition. i'm megyn kelly live from des moines, iowa. we're broadcasting to you live from the statehouse here in des moines. the iowa caucuses are tomorrow night. that is the bell from the uss iowa in case you missed our last segment. most potential caucusgoers are torn between voting for candidate they like the most or one they believe is in the best position to beat president obama. joining me iowa gop chairman, matt strong. iowa tends to be a

conservative electorate. they like people like rick santorum or michele bachmann. she won the ames straw poll even though she is polling poorly now. mitt romney is at the top of the polls and he is widely viewed as more moderate. is it because they're struggling i like him you about maybe he is not the most electable? >> what you see in iowa is the same debate with republicans nationwide. the idea to beat barack obama is in the bones of every republican. not only do we want to defeat him but we have a nominee that will stand up for the republican principles we know america needs. that is the debate within the republican party in iowa. i think it is healthy for the party. whoever becomes out of the process we need someone to prosecute the case of failed obama presidency. i'm proud to get the first crack to start that. megyn: we've seen in of the past couple weeks how important iowa is. yes there are other states of course but it is setting the terms of the debate going forward who is where. let me ask you, how

important is it, traditionally to iowans to pick the one who ultimately will win, the one who they believe will win? do they want to pick the ultimate winner? >> that's not traditionally the roll we play. we're first not the decider. we understand our role to vet the candidates as they come to our town hall meetings or our community centers and we really kick the tires. you see some voters where electability carries the day and some will send a message. that is for example with the support of ron paul. clearly sending a message that iowans are disgusted what what they see in spending coming out washington. there are a couple of takeaways you will get from tomorrow night. megyn: rick santorum, risely, been in all 99 counties but recently he has been honing his message, vote your heart. reincome what you think is right and who truly will be the best for the country and go and do it tuesday night. there is question whether rick santorum can parlay a victory, first, second or

third into anything more beyond iowa . what do you think iowans will do with regards to rick santorum. >> it is interesting. i will hit all six campaign events. i started with rick santorum in polk city. he is make being the argument on electability. he beat a sitting democrat from congress and sitting democrat senator. he is pivoting talking about the jobs plan and manufacturing and trying to bring some of those jobs back. he is understand sew closely aligned with the social conservative movement that he economic message is. megyn: what do you think record turnout, you think that will be true. >> i never disagree with my governor. megyn: may have not said it that way but more than last time. >> we have had 33 straight months of republican registration gains. first chance anyone in america gets to vote to replace barack obama. so i'm confident we'll have a good night as iowa republicans tuesday. megyn: matt, thank you so much. always a pleasure, sir. we'll be watching. well a recent ad push in the hawkeye state has newt

gingrich and mitt romney in a faceoff. gingrich is angry over a negative ad launched by the romney camp and claims his rival is trying to buy his way to the nomination. listen here. >> mr. speaker, what did you mean when you said coming out of mass this morning it a pierce governor romney is trying to buy an election? >> i just struck by the "politico" analysis the sheer volume of anti-gingrich ads run by rommey's pac, i'll let you decide how would you describe it. it is, for a state this size, to spend that number of dollars in negative ads on one candidate is pretty amazing. >> do you feel swift voted? >> no, i have feel romney-voted. megyn: romney not taking that lying down, firing with this. >> your response to newt gingrich saying you would buy an election if you could? >> let's see. speaker gingrich announced that he had raised $10 million this quarter and he ought to be proud of that. we're working hard to raise funds as well.

and this is an election however that is not being driven by money raised. it is being driven by message, connection with the voters, debates. experience. and i think i think those are the features driving the campaign so far. megyn: these are not the only jabs that we're seeing and hearing on television and radio here in iowa. you can not turn on the tv out here without back rajed with ads from all the candidates and their pacs. we'll have more on that and the ramifications we could see from that tomorrow night. we'll have that later this hour. remember, folks, fox news is your home base for the first-in-the-nation iowa caucuses. we will have special coverage of the caulk discussions tomorrow beginning 6:00 p.m. eastern time. we'll be broadcasting live on "america live". bret takes over the reins reins at 6:00 p.m. and shepard at 7:00. we'll be back 8:00 p.m. eastern time as the caucuses get underway and we get the first vote of the 2012 presidential election

tomorrow night, folks. from iowa now we go to virginia where the state attorney general is backing off of a plan, or at least a push to change the commonwealth's election rules ahead of the march sixth primary. only two gop candidates are on the ballot. there has been a lot of pushback against that. rick perry failed to qualify. so did newt gingrich. they didn't get enough signatures. the only two who are on the ballot are romney and paul. rick perry's campaign suing to change that as well as a gingrich supporter. james rosen is live in washington. james, the thought had been the attorney general's push to change the law was their best chance at getting themselves on the ba ballot these other candidates. now cuccinelli, the ag, seems to be backing off. >> reporter: that decision reached by cuccinelli, virginia attorney general who himself a republican, megyn, deals the toughest blow to the two gop presidential candidates who made strenuous efforts to get on the ballot in the commonwealth but failed. newt gingrich touted his

campaign flashmob ability to gather the foot soldiers and signatures to gather signatures in each of virginia's 11 house districts. appearing on "fox and friends" governor perry complained about a procedure in virginia's republican party that led to tougher scrutiny for signatures than we've seen in the past elections. >> i got hundreds of thousands of people who want to support me. you know the veterans down in the norfolk area and active duty military that are big supporters of mine and they're going to be disenfranchised. so the republican party in virginia will have to address this. >> reporter: virginia ag, ken cuccinelli, had indicated on saturday he would try to advance an emergency measure before the virginia primary on march 6th that would allow onto the ballot those contenders eligible for much matching federal funds. last night however, cuccinelli announced a change in heart saying in a statement, quote, we can't find a way to make such changes fair to the romney

and paul campaigns that qualified even with virginia's burdensome system. changing the rules midstream, cuccinelli said is inconsistent with respecting and preserving the rule of law, something i am particularly sensitive to as virginia's attorney general. i added for good measure i do not change position on public policy often or lightly but when convinced my position is wrong i think it necessary to concede as much and adjust accordingly. words to live by, megyn. a hearing by the way on governor perry's lawsuit is scheduled for january 13th. back to you. megyn: was that a shot at me? part about being wrong and admitting it? >> reporter: no, counselor. megyn: be specific. >> reporter: i stand down. megyn: thanks, james. >> reporter: all right. megyn: see you soon. just when you thought you knew right from wrong the new year is bringing a whole slew of laws across the country. isn't that what you need? with some 40,000 of them taking effect in 2012. trace gallagher in the west coast newsroom with a short

list of new things to worry about. this isn't exactly what people were ush wishing for, more laws, and regulation and i want to be controlled more by my government. >> reporter: 800 average per state. everything from georgia saying you could drive golf carts on the road as long as you have a horn. utah banning happy hour all together. a lot of new laws by the way are dealing with distracted driving. states like pennsylvania and nevada pushing new very tough texting while driving laws. in north dakota, drivers under the age of 18 can't use a cell phone at all. across the country now, truckers and bus drivers who use any type of handheld device can face fines up to $2700. several states have new illegal immigration laws. alabama, tennessee, georgia, south carolina, cracking down on employers who hire illegals, making them now use e-verify to verify their immigration status. california giving illegals more rights, saying, expanding the d.r.e.a.m. act saying illegals who are actually raised here in

california now have more access to scholarship money. and california we should note also has passed one of the most controversial laws in the country, making it mandatory for public schoolkids to be taught gay and lesbian history, though a lot of groups are now fighting against that law, to repeal it. we should note that minimum wage has gone up in eight different states. the highest being right here in california, now in san francisco, minimum wage is above $10 an hour. megyn. megyn: wow! trace, thank you. two supreme court justice apparently do not plan on recruising themselves from deciding the challenge to president obama's health care law despite calls from democrats and republicans for two of them to do so. now chief justice john roberts appears to be defending their decisions. is he right? he has done something very extraordinary. we'll explain it and talk about it in "kelly's court". thousands of dead birds falling from the skies in

the second year in a row in the same place at the same time. what is going on with that? this is disturbing. governor mike huckabee won iowa back in 2008 but he lost the nomination. he has a warning for tomorrow night's winner straight ahead. >> you know, i wasn't sure that i would ever be able to love a state as much as i love my home state of arkansas. but tonight, i love iowa a whole lot. [cheers and applause] [ male announcer ] to the 5:00 a.m. scholar.

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megyn: new information on an incredible story of survival. three children barely escaped with their lives in a utah car crash. their father lost control of his car, and landed upside down in a river. he managed to get out but the children were trapped. the some good samaritans then jumped into action, including a former police officer who pushed his handgun against the windows, shooting out the glass. the other rescuers rushed in and pulled the children out just in the nick of time. take a listen to the rescuers, one of them describe what happened. >> i looked down and i could see a car upside down in the river. >> he said let's go, boys. he jumped in and again a large mass of people followed him in. >> the man next to me started yelling, my son, my

son is still in the car. he is on the other side. we have to flip the car. and i looked in and i could see his boy, you know, upside down in the water. another man grabbed him and started doing the heimlich and more water come out. and all of sudden, you could see him moving, and making a funny noise. megyn: oh, my goodness. one of the children did not have a pulse but is now recovering. everyone else said to be doing just fine after the order deal. do you know they tell you that you should keep one of those ice picks in your glove box just in case, god forbid, you ever find yourself in a situation where your car is sinking but the windows are up. automatic windows, can't get them open. these are children. thank goodness for those good samaritans. i hope the children are all right. back now to tomorrow's caucuses here in iowa where mitt romney now looks like a frontrunner and he seems to be doing well nationally too

but it may not all be good news for governor romney. our next guest says the gop presidential candidate shares some fascinating similaritieses with democratic presidential candidate walter mondale who became the nominee in 1984 but got trounced by president reagan in the general election. joe trippi a former advisor to walter mondale who wan his campaign in iowa, fox news contributor. joe, you're the perfect man to discuss this segment. great, mondale, won iowa. you're all happy. that is terrific. you did your job. that could be the scenario for mitt romney tomorrow night. where is the dark cloud? >> well we got 49% that night and the problem with everybody wanted to know who the other guy was. they had spent a couple of years, everybody knowing that walter mondale would be one of the two to go on from iowa but who was the other person. and it was a guy named gary hart, got 19% of the vote.

came in second. and would go on to defeat us in state after state after state. it took us, i think, 10, 12, 13 states before walter mondale won another state. so there's a chance that tomorrow night that if a rick santorum, or a perry or somebody comes up from the second-tier and actually shocks and wins, or comes in second unexpectedly, that that person could garner the kind of press coverage, the kind of interest that gives them a, the other guy slot and suddenly romney is in a fight for his life and whoever becomes the nominee is in a tougher position against an incumbent barack obama as walter mondale was in '84 against incumbent ronald reagan. >> so do you think that it is a disadvantage then to the republicans to have a drawn-out, nomination process, this business of, it is not winner takes all when it comes to the tell

gats in these states? it is more proportionate so you could get some delegates here, you could get some delegates in new hampshire and there is incentive for people who come in second and third to stay in longer. you seem to be suggesting based on your history that is not good for the person who is at the top of the ticket? >> no it is not. the interesting thing about iowa, the first few states, iowa, new hampshire, what they really determine whether the party will settle on the front runner or whether they want the fight, the debate, the discussion about the future of the country to go on and so in a lot of ways, look, if iowa picks romney tomorrow he will probably go on to win new hampshire and this thing will be over pretty quickly and the party will settle around its frontrunner. if on the other hand iowa decides to disrupt, to throw rick santorum or a perry or somebody or even a ron paul out there, then i think this fight goes on and the longer

it goes on, i mean history has shown that's a problem for the party that's out of power because they're spending precious resources while the incumbent, in this case barack obama, continues to organize and continues to wait with a war chest. megyn: is it necessarily though bad for the republican party to have this long, drawn-out nomination process if it becomes one. it has been a little long so far in terms of he do bates and so on? is it necessarily bad? it keeps their ideas in the public eye. all these debates where they hammer president obama time after time, that can't make you feel good as a democrat watching it? >> no. look at the other card for a second, the other example would be barack obama and hillary clinton in 2008. here we had this massive done any book -- done any brook kept going and going and massive fight in the party. people thought this would cost us. we're going to have to spend resources against each other and have all this

organization going on when we could be organizing against the republicans. it turned out we raised more money because of all that energy and put more people to organizing for obama than anybody in history. so it could be good for a party to have these kind of, to have, in the sense of the republicans right now, having this conservative fight with libertarian force within the party and the status quo establishment force all energizing their wings of the party, bringing people in, if somebody can unify that, that will make it a much stronger party in the general election too. so it is not necessarily the fight is bad. it is how this all plays out. who can consolidate it. it is not necessarily, you know, in the cards yet that romney has this thing won. again, walter mondale's case we got 49% of the vote. i thought i had done a incredible job and my team had done a incredible job and people of iowa picked mondale. 19 points. the guy was 30 points below

us. somehow comes out and we can't beat him because focus put on him. one thing i say to everybody, we've all been following this for two years now. we're almost bored to some extent what the results might be tomorrow. tomorrow, tomorrow night people, in iowa are going to introduce us to the two or thee people that should be considered the folks, nominee for the republican party. that is the first time a lot of country will start paying attention to these people. that's a big plus for somebody. megyn: it is officially game on as of tomorrow. joe trippi, thank you, sir. just in his 20s back in 1984 when they secured that victory for walter mondale. it was all -- congrats to you on that at least. coming up new details on the manhunt for a killer of a park ranger on mount rainier. we're getting more reports that the suspect has been found dead. it may be turning into a bizarre knew year's tradition in one town.

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megyn: new year's eve in new york city is famous for its ball drop but one arkansas town seems to be gaining a bad knew year's tradition of its own. entire flocks of blackbirds falling from the sky in apocalyptic fashion. this is happening in the small town of beebe. police began receiving calls about 7:00 that night that dozens of blackbirds were landing in yards and on roads. the same thing happened last year when thousands of birds fell to their deaths on new year's. experts say fireworks, fireworks are likely to blame for both incidents. president obama is under fire from some of his strongest supporters after

he signed the defense authorization act into law over the weekend. that is because it allows the government to lock up terror suspects indefinitely without a trial. and it also puts the brakes on plans to goes down guantanamo bay which is one of the president's biggest campaign promises. chief intelligence correspondent catherine herridge live in washington. >> reporter: thank you, megyn, good afternoon. in a scathing statement the head of aclu said mr. obama decision he is could tarn third quarter his presidency. because he will forever be known as the president who signed indefinite detention without charge or trial into law. from a national muslim rights group, quote, this ill-conceived and un-american legislation will forever be seen as a stain on our nation's history, one that will ultimately be viewed with embarassments and shame. a leading national security lawyer says the new powers are in fact sweeping. >> the idea that the president would sign a bill which gives him the right to

indefinitely detain american citizens, potentially take them to guantanamo should be shocking to any american who thinks that we have a bill of rights, that we have a constitution and that it means anything. >> reporter: as for the white house as recently as mid-december spokesman jay carney said a veto was still a strong possibility. >> the president's senior advisors would recommend a veto. that stands but i don't want to make an assessment without having seen it myself or without others having reviewed it about whether or not the changes in the language are adequate and resolve those issues that we have with the bill at this point. >> reporter: but on new year's eve the white house posted this 1800 word signing statement in which the president said, quote, my administration will not authorize the indefinite military detention without trial of american citizens doing so would break with our most important traditions and values as a nation. mr. obama also promised to apply the provisions consistent with the constitution and the laws of war but this issue, megyn,

will come to a head next week which marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of those guantanamo camps. megyn: wow! the catherine herridge, she has been down there many times. thank you. >> reporter: you're welcome. megyn: well, they hardly have a reputation as wild law breakers but a group of amish are going head-to-head with local police in one area and you may not believe the reason why. plus he won iowa back in 2008 but former governor mike huckabee could not maintain that momentum down the stretch. up next, what he says about lessons learned and he thinks the candidate and the country need to hear. >> if this were a marathon we have only run half of it but we've run it well. now it is on from here to new hampshire and then to the rest of the country. but i'll always be wanting to come back to this place and say, wherever it ends and we know where that is going to be, it started here in iowa.

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megyn: well a big part of the country needs to say farewell to our mild winter weather. a major cold front is pushing across the bite great lakes bringing along snow and frigid temperatures in at least six states. the tournament of roses parade went off without a hitch today in pasadena. some anti-wall street marchers took to the streets after the parade to protest corporate greed. the trail of hosni mubarak trial resuming in cairo the former egyptian leader is charged in complicity with the killing of more than 800 protesters last year during the uprising that toppled his regime. well, he was the big winner in iowa four years ago but the campaign of mike huckabee then ran into

challenges in february and march after his big win here. john mccain ended up with the 2008 republican nomination. it is a lesson perhaps in endurance one all candidates should pay attention to. in fact in his win that night, huckabee made an almost prophetic speech acknowledging that fact. take a listen. >> because tonight what we have seen is a new day in american politics. a new day is needed in american politics just like a new day is needed in american government. and tonight it starts here in iowa but it doesn't end here. it goes all the way through the other states and ends at 1600 pennsylvania avenue one year from now. [applause] megyn: joining me now, former governor of arkansas, mike huckabee, of course the host of huckabee here on fnc. it starts here in iowa but it doesn't end here and that is true this year as well.

what happened with you, you won first place here. you went on to new hampshire and not totally unexpectedly tied for third. you didn't do as well there. then the critical blow seemed to come in south carolina where you came in second instead of first. what happened? how did you, how did you lose the momentum you had coming out of iowa? >> well, i think a lot of it had to do with what happened in south carolina. fred thompson stayed in the race at john mccain's request and fred essentially stayed in the up state and worked me over pretty hard. there was about a million and a half dollars of negative advertising from independent groups, something that all of these people who have been front-runners have experienced, when you add all that up it is hard to stay on top. and so, we had a rebound. we came back strong on super tuesday with states from west virgina to kansas and all through the midwest and south but by that time i think a lot of the press had begun to decide that john mccain was going to be the nominee. mitt romney got out after

super tuesday. we stayed in another month but once he got the delegates, you just have to accept the fact that you didn't quit but you got, you got defeated and that's what happened. megyn: why one, these first contest states, iowa with the caucuses and new hampshire with the primary are so important because they can help lead to a feeling inevitability that all these candidates are banking on. even though iowa tends to pick somebody more conservative, new hampshire tends to pick somebody who is more moderate, if you do very well in one or both states it starts to give you the filing this guy will be the nominee, we want to back the winner. understanding all of that, governor, how do i think is best positioned right now? >> i think mitt romney, tough say is in a great position. he has the opportunity to win iowa because of the splintering of the more conservative vote within iowa. you see rick santorum surging ahead but there is still newt gingrich and michele bachmann and rick perry and ron paul. there is any number of

things that can happen tomorrow night. although i do think you will see basically a one, two, three, finish with mitt romney, rick santorum and ron paul, not necessarily in that order. but then when they go on to new hampshire it will be hard for anyone to touch mitt romney there he probably won't win south carolina but he does have to do well enough to show he has something in him. then this florida he is going to look good. if he has been been able to win two of top three states and three of the first four, that is momentum that causes people to donate. then it starts to unravel for the other candidates. not everybody will come out of iowa alive. whether they know it or not we'll see but not everybody actually get as ticket onto the next level after tomorrow night. megyn: how, if at all, do you think it is different this year in terms who can stay in? normally they tell us only three can come out of iowa. if you're not top three you have to basically abandon your presidential hopes. but how different is it this

time, governor, given the delegates in each explain will be split? it is not a winner take all this time around? >> well, that's a big factor, megyn. you pointed out something too feel people have talked about. the process is different and a candidate is going to be able to stay in longer because simply no one win acquire enough delegates to claim the nomination as early as they were last time. but here's the downside. tough have a lot of money to stay on your feet. a lot of these candidates have a burn rate in their campaigns they can't sustain. they put everything they have, they have staffed up, they have beefed up but they can't sustain it. if they don't come up with a lot of money and they're not if they don't do one, two, three in iowa and one, two, three, in new hampshire it doesn't matter what kind of hope they have, you have to buy television to counter the negative stuff. you have to be able to put gas in your bus and some of these candidates are going to run out of dough before they run out of ambition. megyn: we saw some of that with newt gingrich who surged in the polls and then got attacked viciously by

ads because he was unable to fight back because he had no campaign money in his coffers. rick santorum is the same position. he is surging but has no national organization and not a lot of dough. let me ask you, consider those -- you have mitt romney with dough and organization, ron paul with dough an organization. but can any of the candidates do well here in iowa and perhaps well in new hampshire can they realistically expect to carner a -- garner a lot of money and organization fast enough to take over the lead and win this nomination? >> maybe begin, they have to be on fire. let's say rick santorum were to win iowa, he will get more money into the next week than he raised up to this point. four years ago i raised more money in the last month of the campaign than i did previous 12. people thought what if he wins? he might have a chance. that may happen to a candidate like santorum. rick perry is the only other candidate who came into the race with a significant treasury. that will give him the

ability to stay on his feet even if he just falling behind as he appears to be in these early states. so the only way that he's able to stay, not by the results but by the fact that he's got money in the bank. the other candidates, they will have to do well or their donors try up and they start looking for another horse to ride. it is painful. it is hard. nothing worse than being a candidate. you gave your a year of your life. gone out there 20-hour days and gone without sleep. the campaign for a person who has to quit, like going from 100 miles per hour to a dead stop in one single moment, when you finally say, okay, we're going to have to pull this thing away. the worst thing you hope candidates don't do, don't go into debt because i'm going to tell you there is nothing harder to do than to raise money to pay off the debt of a campaign that did not succeed. so it's so critical that these guys don't think, well, if i borrow some money i can stay in. that was one commitment i made to god, my wife and myself we weren't going to

borrow money to run the campaign and we didn't. so, i just hope candidates don't because they will spend the rest of their lives trying to pay it off. megyn: that is an interesting point t was four years ago tomorrow thaw won in the iowa gop caucuses. tomorrow it looks like you will be spending your day argue in much better fashion judging what i see behind you. enjoy the sunny state of florida. thank you for your time. >> megyn, happy new year to you. megyn: see you, friend, happy new year. how beautiful, how beautiful was it there? coming up chief justice john roberts seeming to defend his supreme court colleagues on the left and the right in the wake of calls that two justices recuse themselves from the upcoming review of the president obama's health care law. what he said in an unusual move and whether he was right. "kelly's court" is next. four little words from new year's eve turned into a controversy.

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than leading regar juice drinks. because less sugar is a better way to fly. ♪ just not literally. capri sun. respect what's in the pouch. megyn: "kelly's court" is back in session. on the docket today, chief justice john roberts seeming to come to the defense of his fellow members of the supreme court, two in particular, who have, we believe, refused to recuse themselves from the case challenging the president's health care law which goes before the court in march. lawmakers from both sides of the aisle want justices elena kagan and clarence thomas off the case claiming each for different reasons has a personal stake in the decision. in his year-end review,

chief justice roberts wrote, quote, i have complete confidence in the capability of my colleagues to determine when recusal is warranted. they are jurists of exceptional integrity and experience whose character and been examined through rigorous appointment and confirmation process. so should that be the final word on the matter? joining me, joey jackson and criminal defense attorney and former prosecutor. kimberly gill file, former prosecutor but co-host of "the five" on here on f -- fnc. they always do this. they talk about the judiciaries. sometimes they talk about federal pay for judges. he devoted whole thing to defending judges, the supreme court justice when it comes to the issue of recusal. no one is saying it outright, joey, it seems clear he is coming to the defense of kagan and thomas we don't know for sure right now but does not like either one will step down from deciding this case? >> doesn't look that way.

if you think he is coming to the their defense, megyn, he absolutely is. as a first matter we all know they have a lifetime tenure. as a result of that they are immune from political pressure. they don't have to worry about it. sit on the bench. it is all good. however when it comes to something that everyone is vested in like this health care law people have legitimate concerns. what are they? on the left you have the left arguing that you know what? clarence thomas's wife, his wife has been involved with people who are proponents of this law. he should recuse based upon that interest. on the right you say elena kagan, she is solicitor general. used to be. she made decision regarding this. she has been involved in this. both sides really have something to say about it. ultimately, megyn the supreme court will decide on their own, those individual members whether they should recuse themselves. there is a law governing that. whether it applies to them and whether they actually decide to go by it, that is another question. megyn: he doesn't think so because there's a growing din, kimberly, from some, who are pushing to have the supreme court answer to

congress basically. to say, you don't get to just decide on your own whether you're going to step down. there should be criteria you have to follow. >> sure. megyn: and the chief justice mcdreammy, i mean roberts seems to be saying, he seems to be saying, guess what, congress, no, we'll decide, we'll decide ourselves. >> isn't it interesting, yeah because it calls into question the separation of powers the fact there is no review for the supreme court. they are the final say and the final arbiter. in this case it is particular and important because if one of them recuses himself, there is no other court to review the decision or to decide whether or not they should. they're left to their own devices to monitor themselves, to decide whether or not there is a high calling for an ethical, concerned, perhaps to step down. there is obviously opponents on both sides and proponents saying that both of them should step down. if you do analysis of it and under the code and title 28 seems more attenuated in

terms of justice thomas. he didn't have any direct dealing with the health care law but with respect to his wife, so that is one deagree removed. as to the solicitor general, she did. in fact was supportive of helping to defend obama care and try to enter e-mails show excitement about it going forward, et cetera that have called this into question. looks like roberts is saying neither one happen. megyn: very innocuous. very innocuous, isn't it, joey? the evidence tying kagan to having her hands around this case seems to me very innocuous. same is true for thomas. as a lawyer of nine years i feel like the supreme court chief justice got it exactly right. aren't we too quick to politicize the supreme court? >> i think we are. at the same time though, so many people are looking at this obamacare law and they have a vested interest seeing it be overturned or that it be accepted. so therefore tempers are flaring. ultimately however, the supreme court will make those decisions and their

ethics could be called into question all they want. kemberly talked about title 28. it is very expansive. it talks about your impartiality can be cause called into question. >> but they're not bound by that. >> they're not bound. >> they're not bound by that supreme court is bound by nothing. they make up where they are going to sit and there is no review. >> exactly. megyn: kimberly, you tell me, should that change? we need finalty at some point. congress will now review all supreme court decisions on recusal? >> it is court of last stop and jurisdiction. that is how i worked very well for many years. you will have a lot of controversy if you try to change that. it is significant that the chief justice came out and made this i have their back. we have their back. we do not feel it is ethical concern. everybody knows it was open secret he was talking about kagan and thomas with respect to these two issues. megyn: right. >> at this point i don't see anything else going further than this. newt gingrich talked about having federal judges come in to give an answer to

their decisions and reasoning behind it would have to be subject to some kind of review. this is along those lines but more significant in nature and leads to constitutional implications as well. megyn: it is interesting that he came out and issued a broad brush defense of the justices. didn't just defend thomas. >> right. megyn: they seem to be same side of political ideology. he defended kagan as well implicitly. defending his peeps on the bench. >> i'm wondering though, megyn, this some way him highlighting it if he is really saying maybe you two should think twice about this and not participate? i don't know. megyn: "joey", we'll have to leave it at that. we'll leave it to viewers to ponder. coming up the horse-drawn carriage is a way of live for the amish. now they're at the center of a culture clash that has police and buggy drivers going head-to-head. to stretch around the earth over 190 times.

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megyn: a culture clash between old-time religion and modern safety. members of an amish celebrity fighting for their religious freedom -- sect. resisting warnings to put bright orange warning signs on their buggies. douglas kennedy in the newsroom. >> reporter: the all mick -- all mesh reject all technology and progress. now some in kentucky are rejecting them and their buddies. amish buggy conjures thoughts of simpler time, far from the angst of the modern world. to some residents in may feed, kentucky. they're just annoying. >> almost hit one coming home from work. >> you never know who is coming or going. they're tearing up the roads with the steel wheels.

>> reporter: we don't like to see these buggies on the road? >> not without the orange emblem, absolutely not. >> reporter: he is the state representative from mayfield, a down with a large population of a strict amish sect who live life like the early 20th century, stopping time in 1913. unfortunately according to nessler they're also stopping traffic. he wants all the amish around here to put these brightly colored orange try angles on the back of their horse-drawn buggies. >> it is fluorescent color is contrary at this to their advoid dance displaying loud color. >> reporter: owe is an member of the american civil liberties union. he represents eight amish men who refused to comply with the law. >> they use alternative safety measures equally

effective maintaining the buggy visibility and maintaining road safety. >> reporter: the all mick e mesh will -- amish will put reflective tape but can't put the orange triangle because it is against their religion. >> the reflective tape does not reflect as they indicate they do. >> reporter: he says even if it doesn't fit with their lifestyle the orange triangle is more visible and much safer. that is it from here, megyn. back to you. megyn: douglas, interesting story. what do you folks think? whose side are you on? kelly@foxnews.com. we'll be right back :

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>>megyn: warning pop singers: be careful when you change the lyrics after someone made changes to "imagine," from john lennon. si