this is anybody's game. we talked to so many different experts. all who had different ideas who will come in first, second. i will do entrance polls. you will do your board. bill: put it back. nine hours. martha: "happening now" starts now. we'll see you later tonight. thank you, everybody. jenna: we promise to bring up the countdown clock. we want to show you some other numbers. look at where the dow is trading. it is the first full trading day of the year. it is up two%. this is it why it is important for today and rest of the year. often first five days of january indicate what the rest of the year is going to look like. this is a big year not only because of the presidential elections but just for the economy in general. pay close attention to this number today, for the next five days. also, not to rain on anyone's parade. we have to tell you oil is trading above 100 a barrel. part of the reason for that is what is going on iran.

that is one of our big stories today on "happening now." jon: all eyes on iowa just a few hours from now. the very first votes will be cast in the 2012 presidential race. good morning, to you, i'm jon scott. jenna: hi, everybody, i'm jenna lee. we're in the fox newsroom. happening now republicans in iowa are getting ready to gather tonight for for the all-important caucuses. this as the gop candidates do heavy-duty campaigning in the hawkeye state. jon: nearly all the republican white house hopefuls are there except for jon huntsman, the former utah governor. he is skipping iowa all together. most are spending the day clustering in and around the des moines area. newt gingrich is focusing on the eastern part of the state. frontrunner mitt romney wrapped up his final

campaign rally in iowa. jenna: we'll start with our chief political correspondent carl cameron who is live in des moines. carl, what happened to playing nice in the campaign? where did that go? or the report or the you know what. >> reporter: you know what? iowa has the reputation of heartland and attack ads and attack politics are shunned or even punished when it happens. but the truth is the iowa caucus history has a long, long storied series of chapters about really nasty politics. here we are on the day of the caucuses they're realizing it yet again. serious attacks of character against a variety of candidates. newt gingrich, who has plummeted in the polls, got pretty tough this morning. for the last several days he was saying he would go after mitt romney when he got to new hampshire. today it happened in iowa the day before he gets to new hampshire. newt gingrich essentially called mitt romney a liar. he was asked a question, said, what else would you call him? then proceeded to go after romney for a whole host of

criticisms including his record in massachusetts with gingrich says included his support of abortion rights and gay rights. romney today, tried to take the high road and shrug off the attacks but they will get a heck of a lot worse. secondarily the rick perry went after the surging rick santorum, suggesting that santorum who is ardently pro-life and long conservative record actually not representing that and suggesting that santorum is pro-choice. here is romney's response to gingrich and perry's hit on santorum. >> well, i understand newt must be very angry and i don't exactly understand why. i wish him well. it is a long road ahead. he is good guy. i like he and can lista. we have many months ahead of us. i will leave it at that. >> look at record in washington, d.c. for years he was there. he is the king of pork barrel politics. i love iowa pork, but washington pork i don't have much use for. >> reporter: up is down and

down sup in the iowa caucuses on the last day. we have three surging candidates. three who say they will continue to press on even if they don't make the top three. after all these attempts to resist the negative activity we're up to our hips in it in iowa and on to new hampshire where the race always gets much tougher. jenna: carl, you mentioned the frontier of candidates. at this point in the caulk can you is it still anyone's came? >> reporter: oh, yeah. you can't make any assumptions in the iowa caucuses. this is not a regular primary. people go there with their neighbors and listen to friends and families and make speeches. we say for weeks many go undecided and many more than that are likely to change their minds. if your best friend or wife or child or grandparents make a speech across the room on behalf of another candidate it can change your mind t has happened year after year, quadrennial, after quadrennial after the

caucuses. that is why it is so volatile. it is anyone's game. ron paul, rick santorum and mitt romney are at top of the polls. santorum haste organization has been put together the last couple of months although he has been campaigning in iowa longer than the other candidates. any one of those three could win it. the second and third place positions because of cliche there is only three tickets out of iowa, they will roar into new hampshire with some momentum. for the other three they're already suggesting that iowa doesn't matter after all the time and money they spent here. michele bachmann, newt gingrich, rick perry have set their sights down the road and truly not on new hampshire, the first-in-the-nation primary state. that will see rick perry and michele bachmann visit only to participate in debates next weekend. otherwise they will spend motion of the upcoming week in south carolina a state, like iowa, christian conservatives make up about half of the electorate. a state like iowa where social conservatives are a very, very big deal. newt gingrich, rick perry,

michele bachmann, all of them will focus on south carolina mostly for the expressed purpose of trying to take down mitt romney below the mason-dixon. all three of them believe they can compete much better in the south against what they call now a massachusetts moderate in mitt romney. jenna? jenna: all right, carl, stay around with us. jon, i believe we found another carl to bring into this conversation. jon: we'll have the karl twins with us. karl rove, former senior advisor to president george w. bush and a fox news contributor is with us now. mitt romney has in the words of one newspaper, dropped all pretense and said last night we're going to win this thing, meaning the iowa caucuses. do you see him positioned to do that? >> he could. he stepped back from the incident and said he was talking about the nomination. if you look at "real clear politics" average there have been six polls since christmas. mitt romney leads in five of the six. his lead though is very small. and the average of those six polls it is 22.8% to 21.5%

for ron paul. rick santorum then in at 16%. but, it's very, it is too close to call. we have three contenders here. organization matters. carl cameron was absolutely right. you go into any one of these 1744 caucus meetings and somebody gets up and make as particularly good speech it sways minds. jon: organization matters. but personal retail campaigning matters as well. mitt romney has done less of that in iowa than the other major contenders. >> that's right but he leads in part because there is another thing there called money. interesting, but money doesn't necessarily buy you love. the guy who spent the most money there on television for example is rick perry who between his super pac and his campaign has spent five 1/2 million dollars on television, $4.5 million being spent by romney. about 2.25 million spent by ron paul and million dollars spent by newt gingrich. jon: we have roughly 120,000 voters in iowa tonight who

are going to go to these church basements and homes and so forth and really set a course for the election that helps determine the next president of this country. >> let's put it in context. this is a state with over 3 million people. we're talking about 4% of the state's population. this is a state with over 650,000 registered republicans. we're talking about one out of every six of them showing up at the caucus. probably less than that. this is same-day registration. we'll have tonight i suspect particularly in the college county as lot of one-day republicans. democrats and independents who come in order to vote for ron paul because of his antiwar views. >> i wondered about that, carl? are you seeing apparently democrats can register on day of, is there any kind of organized push to spoil the results for one candidate or another there in iowa? >> reporter: hi, jon, carl with a c and hey, karl with a k. no, we don't see a lot of that. there is lot of hype. we'll game the caucus and

try to come in at the last second there will be many who do that. curiosity seekers and people who want to participate, not those that want to go mess up a candidate necessarily. the other thing you have to remember, talking about a universe of 119 or 120,000 the turnout adjusts just a percentage point, that is 1,000 votes. that is the difference between where the candidates lie in the polls in some cases. karl with a k was talking about there is fraction of a percentage difference in some of these polls. if the turnout is 5% higher and gets to 130,000, everything gets skewed because there is such a tiny little universe of votes going on here, caucus-goers here, the turnout fluctuation would jigger or rejigger everything and the margin would be only a few hundred votes. >> that's why even a few hundred or 1,000 or 2 college kids who say, by god i like that ron paul because he is antiwar and isolationist and i will go vote in the caucuses could make a big difference tonight. jon: the fascinating thing about this whole process you could come out of here

tonight with one fairly clear-cut winner. you could come out with a treo essentially tied, right? >> the old saw, as carl cameron said ever time during his coverage, win, place or show in iowa gives you a ticket to new hampshire. what is interesting we may have a couple candidates who come out of here with enough resources to fight again another day like in south carolina, in perry and gingrich but without any, not, win, place or showing in iowa and that's going to make an interesting dynamic. jon: it will be fascinating. >> reporter: if i could just chime in on that, jon. jon: sure. >> reporter: we know if any candidate were to win every single state, run the table, we know that will not happen but just for purposes of discussion, were that to happen no candidate can statistically clinch the nomination until april 24th. you need over 1100 delegates to actually win it and prevent anybody from overtaking you. that doesn't happen for a bunch of months. >> there are no delegates really at stake in the

election. you come in first, you, you get 30% of the vote, you don't get 30% of the delegates. it is a complicated process. it takes months to make its way out in iowa. there will be 12 delegates at stake in one weekend in new hampshire. jon: this is your place for politics. you guys help explained why. carl cameron and karl rove. thank you both. jenna: our focus remains on iowa but we have a couple stories to tell you about today. a chain-reaction accident shutting down a busy interstate. dozens of cars involved in the pileup. the dangerous weather that played a part and if it is headed toward you. that will be next. jon: a murder mystery with ties to the british royals? what police are saying about the investigation. we're live with that story. jenna: an interesting story there. much more on the all-important iowa caucuses, how they work and what it means outside the hawkeye state. rick has more on the day's coverage and our live chat. >> reporter: hi, jenna. nice to see you. fox news channel the place

to be right here 6:00 p.m. eastern time right here on fox news channel. join me at 8:00 eastern time on foxnews.com. we'll be chatting live. you can talk with your fellow people out there what they're thinking about as the results start to come in. right now we want you to go to the america's asksing tab on the "happening now" homepage. we have some great pundits coming up. we'll pose your questions to them. log in right now during the break. a little job for you and we'll have your questions answered when "happening now" returns right after this. don't go away. [ male annouer ] juice drink too watery? ♪ feel the power my young friend. mmm!

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jenna: the all-important iowa caucuses begin just a few hours from now. while we know they are the very first presidential contest in the entire country how exactly do they work? jennifer jacobs the chief politics writer at "the des moines register." we're lucky enough to have her join us on this busy day. jennifer, give us an idea. if we were in a small town in iowa and we're going to participate tonight what would that look like? >> well, it's a series of neighborhood meetings. you get together in your neighborhood and your pre-sent. and it is a bunch of friends. friends calling up friends, saying will you come? can i give you a ride? will you be there for my candidate. when they get there they will sit and listen to very short speeches from a surrogate who talks about why a particular candidate

is the best. in some cases the presidential candidates will be there in person to explain, you know, their pitch. and then they do a secret ballot. it is really simple. jenna: tell us a little bit about those short speeches. even though they're short i bet they can be a pretty important. how do you get to be a surrogate and how much time do you get more or less? >> it is usually just a couple of minutes. how you get to do that speech, the campaigns will pick you and the campaigns, they will pick their best people, their most influential people to stand up and do that speaking because that is a really critical time, the final minutes before people vote. jenna: does the campaign approve the speech beforehand? >> sometimes they will give that person some talking points or maybe walk through a little bit what they could say but, you know, those people, those iowans canned can stand up and say whatever they want to. they can speak from the heart and make that passionate pitch. jenna: as someone that works on live television you never know what can happen. i bet the speeches are really interesting to listen to.

tell us a little bit about turnout. i was looking back at 2008 and saw about 120,000 republicans showed up to participate in 2008. now there is two million total voters in iowa. i was interested about that number, whether or not we will see that number matched this year. do you expect bigger, what the energy is really like on the ground? >> we've seen a lot of energy on the ground this morning. we've seen some ron paul supporters standing on a highway bridge waving to commuters as they rolled downtown. we've seen yard signs at different precinct sites. phones are ringing off the hooks. i've gotten e-mails say i have gotten six phone calls in the last hour. there is a lot of energy. depends on what message iowans want to send. a lot of coverage last few months has essentially been white house noise for people. it is small percentage of iowans that actually go out and caucus. that is why the campaigns are trying to rev up excitement so they get a better turnout. jenna: what is the one thing you're watching for tonight? >> just, you know, a

surprise. where does everybody looking for second surge, that unexpected first, second or third place finish. jenna: we'll watch with you, generaller f thanks so much for joining us today. i look forward to having you back. >> thanks. jon: fox news alert. keeping our eye on the persian gulf. mounting tensions between the u.s. and iran. that country's army chief issues a harsh new warning reportedly telling the u.s. not to return its aircraft carrier to the gulf. the u.s. navy's fifth fleet says the uss john stennis is in the area. all this comes of course as the iranian navy test fired a new cruise missile and two more shorter range missiles on monday near the strait of hormuz. that is the strategic gateway for about 1/6 of the world's oil supply. it gets shipped through there each and every day. leland vittert is live in jerusalem. leland, we're just getting a u.s. response to this threat. tell us what that's all

about. >> reporter: exactly. coming from the pentagon, jon, essentially saying that the u.s. navy will send its ships or its aircraft carriers through the straits of hormuz, when it wants, as much as it wants and for whatever reason it wants and continue to do despite the threat from the iranian navy. the iranian naval chief was full of bravado. we're not in the business of warning americans more than once. in the past few days the iranians are making a lot of threats about closing the straits of hormuz which would obviously change the whole dime nam mick of the oil situation, the economic situation in the world. they made that threat based on whether the united states will pursue harsher sanctions to try to end the iranian nuclear program. the iranian navy had a lot of training and boats and put out scary videos. the videos didn't show the military hardware that experts say that is needed to in order to follow through on the threat to close the strait and make a difference there. though they did launch a

antiship missile, surface-to-surface missile which has range of 75 miles which is more than enough to cross the straits of hormuz down to oman which at some point is only 20 or 21 miles. u.s. aircraft carriers have been operating in the persian gulf for decades. in fact there has been a little bit of history to those very, very laying ships which are formidable weapons protecting oil tankers through the strait of hormuz through the irran-iraq war. the u.s. escorted ships under kuwaiti flag to keep the oil flowing. there was a battle at sea between the iranians and the united states after u.s. ship hit a iranian mine. after that battle it was pretty clear the iranians came out on the losing end. if history repeats itself, the u.s. navy thinks that the strait of hormuz is something worth fighting for. jon? jon: doesn't sound like the fifth fleet is exactly shaking in its shoes. >> reporter: well-said. jon: leland vittert reporting live. thank you.

jenna: interesting timing as we head into an election year. we'll be paying close attention to that, iran and other foreign policy issues. meantime listen to this shocking discovery on a royal estate. police launching a murder investigation after a body is found in the woods. we have the breaking details straight ahead. forget the hottest toy of the season, next we'll tell you what is behind the surge of gun sales this holiday. [gunfire] looking good! you lost some weight. you noticed! these clothes are too big, so i'm donating them. how'd you do it? eating right, whole grain. [ female announcer ] people who choose more whole grain tend to weigh less than those who don't. multigrain cheerios... five whole grains, 110 calories.

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jon: a fox news alert. and police launch a murder investigation after a woman's body is found on a british royal family estate. rick is keeping an eye on that. rick? >> reporter: sandringham is a giant 20,000 acre estate. it is part of the royal

family's vast real estate holdings in the u.k. and a spot where they sometimes gather to celebrate the holidays. it is about two hours northeast of london. new year's day someone taking a stroll in a wooded area there found the body of a woman. we're told it appears the body has been there for some time. hear is the chief inspector who is working the case. >> there are forensic experts currently working in the scene looking at anthropology, end pollgy. i expect the victim to be recovered and taken to the queen elizabeth hospital for postmortem, forensic postmortem this afternoon. >> reporter: as you said, jon, it is being called a murder. at this point there is absolutely no evidence any mem birof royal family or their staff are considered suspects. authorities are looking at missing persons reports and unsolved cases across england to see if they can get a break. interesting to note that the queen and her husband who is

fresh out of the hospital, principle lip, were at the estate new year's day the same day this woman's body was found. as we learn more we'll keep you postedded. jon: keep an eye on it for us. thanks. jenna: extreme weather causing problems across this country today. in kentucky a massive 41-vehicle pileup leaving eight people injured there. also shutting down parts of interstate 75 in grant county. emergency crews say snow was a factor in this crash. 23 cars were towed before the busy highway could reopen there. jon: driving conditions also hazardous in eastern tennessee. icy roads blamed for several accidents and at least one death there interstates in several counties temporarily closed stranding hundreds of drivers. the red cross opening two shelters for those needing help. jenna: here's a sht you don't see every day. workers at butterfly world, jon, in florida, gathering thousands of butterflies, bringing them indoors as the temperatures dropped down south. they're fearing the that the

butterflies could get too cold to eat and die of starvation. poor little guys. jon: getting chilly down there. weather can play a big role in voter turnout. as of now looks like mother nature is cooperating in iowa but will the good weather last through the caucuses tonight? meteorologist janice dean live in the extreme weather center. how is it looking, jd? >> it is cold and chilly across much of the country, jon scott, as our real first blast of arctic air makes its way southward and eastward. look at temperatures. 22 in des moines. 17 in cedar rapids and you factor in the wind, what it feels like on your skin if you're not protected feels like 3 in mason city, 10 in des moines and 4 in cedar rapids. yes it is called. the good news we don't have any storms moving through the state and the temperatures will warm up fairly quickly. in some cases 20, 25 degrees within just a matter of

hours. 41 is the daytime high in des moines. 32 in cedar rapids and the further west you go the warmest it gets. no reason why folks should not be voting today. look at the satellite imagery. not too much to tell you about. the lake-effect snow starting to taper off in the great lakes. looking at snow across the appalachians in upstate new york and pennsylvania. no major systems. much of the country into a deep freeze. look at temperatures. 18 in chicago. 26 cold degrees in new york city, jon scott. jon: it is bring your own blankets at the caucuses tonight, is that right? >> i think they're use to it out there. people like shannon bream who are from the south, they're tweeting me saying i can't handle this. gravy and business cuts, it is cold out here. jon: shannon bream is all bundled up. janice dean, thank you. >> talk to you later. jenna: we're certainly keeping an eye on the dow on the first day of trading this year. take a look at that the dow is surging more than 200 points. we'll have more what is behind this move coming up a

little later on in the show. plus a big chunk of folks still undecided in iowa with just hours to go before the caucuses begin tonight. what are the gop presidential candidates doing to get the undecideds in their corner? we're taking the pulse in iowa next. what do you want to know about the iowa caucuss? how much do they really mean down the road? and why should folks outside that state care? that is a big question. we're answering that for you. our great political panel has the answers to your questions. get your questions in. join our live chat, folks news.com/happeningnow

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a suspect behind a series of arson attacks. this is brand new video. you see a man hurling a firebomb into a house. that same man is also suspected of attacking three other places including an islamic cultural center. in sports news, soccer star david beckham is expected to resign with the l.a. galaxy. the midfielder turning down a lucrative offer from the french team. he apparently looks hollywood. jon: posh likes hollywood. jenna: i think that might be right. jon: greatest country in the world, isn't it? just hours before folks in iowa head out to the caucuses to cast the votes in the first presidential contest of the 2012 election season the gop hopefuls are making their last minute pitches still trying to sway the undecided in iowa. so what do the locals want to hear? john roberts live at the polk county, convention center in des moines for us. >> reporter: they want to hear about some different things. 41% of the people according to the last "des moines

register" poll are undecided. they're using different methods to figure out what candidate they want to vote for. one method is internet. daniel is with google. they are tracking trends of searches. what does that tell us how the caucuses may go? >> all kinds of thing, john. just yesterday we launched the google politics and election page which anyone can go to at google.com/elections. this is trend dashboard. this is cool stuff. basically all the candidates and president obama volume of searches based in iowa. if i click play, you can see there are different spikes. some related to different candidates. you see ron paul comes up there. you can do yourself and look at the information. jon:. >> reporter: there was a spike for rick san tore rum. people are doing it the old-fashioned way going out to the rallies for candidates. we ran into a rally. helen cooper said she will be undecided. her biggest issue is health care. this is what she told me.

>> i'm a small business owner. i guess i want obamacare gone. if i have to hire a part-time or, employee and pay for insurance for their them and their family, i'm not going to be able to do it. >> reporter: so she's looking for a candidate that wants to get rid of health care reform as we know it now. daniel what else are people looking for and who are they looking to? >> we'll pull up some data we pulled in here. these are the top five searches related to candidates. rick santorum is the at top. what is interesting is that number five, santorum, iowa, that is rising the fastest. that is 300%. >> reporter: we wondered what happened after that poll ended on friday whether or not that trend was continuing. it appears to be. >> there are nearly five times as searches related to santorum in iowa as a week ago. >> reporter: you're tracking key words in news stories are. when it comes to santorum what are the key words? >> this is santorum. if we look at key words in google news.

these are the key words related to rick santorum. iowa is very much front and center. you see things related to his campaign. conservative, freedom. all the things are trending in terms of news stories related to rick santorum. >> reporter: important issues for social conservatives in iowa. appears, jon, rick santorum continuing to trend up. this is data from the last day. this morning even. people are interested to hear what he has to say. we'll see what they do tonight at caucuses. jon: that is why this race is such an interesting one to watch. john robert thanks. jenna: we're taking your questions on the iowa caucuses on the republican primary of the who better to answer the questions than today's panel. joe trippi is here. former campaign manager for governor howard dean. pat a caddell is former campaign worker for jimmy carter and fox news contributor as well. we have lot to cover today. i will warm us up with this question. is the topic of debate in articles in "usa today",

cover of the economist this week, asking the question of what we're seeing in iowa really shows that the gop is experiencing an identity crisis. matt, do you see that? >> well, i think what you're seeing with republicans in iowa mirrors the discussion we're having nationwide as republicans. it is one, we want to make sure we have a candidate in the general election that can go toe-to-toe and aggressively prosecute the case of a failed obama administration. we also want to make sure we have a candidate that can eloquently and articulately talk about why we need a conservative principled agenda for the rest of the country. i think that's why you see two out of every five iowa caucus-goers could change their mind who to support before tonight's caucuses. jenna: pat, do you agree? this is more of a vetting process rather than something bigger of the gop? >> there is something much bigger. it is not just happening to the gop but happening to the country. gallup reported and i have been discussing how volatile

the republican race, and how idealogical pretty straightforward party been so roiled by the people who emerged. in the last three months we've had three very unlikely surges. herman cain from nowhere. then newt gingrich and now the least likely of all, rick santorum. never had this kind of volatility in the republican race. reflects what is happening in the country. the country is in trouble and people are looking for big answers not just typical political answers. jenna: that becomes the question, joe, how to be most effective if you're running a campaign in this environment. jason lang wrote in with this question. he said, why can't all the candidates state their position? preying on each other is stupid and disrespectful. joe, are negative ads in this environment more effective than in the past? would you go negative if you were anticipating? what do you think about that. people use negative ads because they work. more importantly, what is going on in iowa is, there are only two or three tickets out of that place. only a couple of candidates

will be, many of them will be out of this race very soon. and so, they're going to fight for position every way they can with pretty sharp elbows. some of them out of desperation. some of them out of just trying to put their ideas out there on the floor. and frankly what's going on is the field is relatively weak. that is one of the reasons we see this all this jumping around and romney's been a weak frontrunner in the sense that he can not put the thing away. and the great thing about democracy, the great thing about iowa is, no matter how weak the field, one of these guys will get to win tonight. jenna: win is, i guess in quotations, right? we've been talking about who is going to win, who will be at the top but apparently the top three or four candidates could be the winners tonight. matt, back to you, a little bit of a logistical question from one of our viewers. i have a feeling they might be from iowa because charles had a question about robo calls.

he wanted to know if anything can be done to ban robo calls or to limit them because he is getting about a dozen a day. matt do you have any response to charles? >> trust me my office bears the brunt of that. everybody thinks they come from my office and they don't. one of the unfortunately things we've seen in iowa, i think we're the first frontier in this post-citizens united super pac word. i have bad news for folks in new hampshire and south carolina and other states, i think it is coming your way next and it is really unfortunate it outsourced some of the things traditionally done by campaign organizations. i hope at the end of the day it doesn't replace the grassroots retail nature iowa and new hampshire play in the start of the nomination process. it is important that candidates are on the ground and we is a process that let as every day, hard-working iowan ask them a tough question. that is important role in the vetting process. the more volatile the nation is and more unsettled we are the more important we have questions that answer questions directly from americans. jenna: a tough to look them

in the eye rather than a anonymous call. it could be a challenge in the race ahead. we have a lot of great questions. kathy wants to know why can't have all the states have the same election on one day. that is great question for kathy. you all will stick around and we'll take more of your questions coming up in a moment. jon: we'll continue with our panelists in a moment but first president obama wasting little time. he is jumping feet first back into campaign 2012. what he's doing to try to take attention away from his gop rivals. there he is disembarking from air force one. plus police in l.a. slap the cuffs on a suspect in connection with that scary string of arson attacks. we'll have the very latest what is going on in that investigation coming up. when you have diabetes...

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jon: president obama is diving right into the 2012 election season after his family vacation in hawaii. the first family returning to washington early this morning. the president plans a video teleconference with democratic caucus-goers in iowa tonight followed by a visit to the key battleground state of ohio tomorrow. senior white house foreign affairs correspondent, wendell goler live at the white house for us right now now. >> reporter: jon, the president's re-election campaign is using the iowa caucus to organize and generate enthusiasm for the general election. even though he has no challenger in the caucus he has a bigger campaign presence in iowa than some of the republicans with eight field offices, 20 paid

staffers and hundreds of volunteers. his webcast address to democratic caucus-goers tonight, as you say, intended to make sure republicans don't get all of the attention. he will say virtual all of the republican candidates, all who have led one time or another have been trying to appeal to the far right. it will be his first real attack on the republican field. he is not likely to single out any of the candidates individually though some of his aides have taken shots at mitt romney who they think is likely to emerge as the republican nominee. the president has been really campaigning against republicans in congress. he will keep that up in cleveland tomorrow, unveiling another economic issue he feels can't wait for congress to approve. jon? jon: all right. wendell goler, live at the white house for us as the president gets ready to try to re, get reelected. we've been getting so many gait questions from our viewers today. we are bringing back our

political panelists, joe trippi, pat caddell and mat strawn. matt, here is a question of sort of history. gail wants to know which candidates in iowa have gone on to win the presidency? it is about a 50%, 50% won-loss rate, right? >> sure. i think there's a couple things to remember relative to iowa starting the process. we're the first step, we're the first inning in a nine inning game as part the nomination process. we're not designed to be the predictor what ultimately happens. as my fellow panelists know there are very few things that george w. bush and barack obama have in common. one thing they have in common their path to the white house started by winning iowa caucuses. jon: this is a question from gwen. wants to know why all the fuss about the caucuss? they don't exactly have a great track record of choosing candidates.

>> under that, most states don't. they get down to couple people. some one other states. the other one wins other states. if you look at most states you get into that sort of 50% about picking the right one in the end. in the end iowa i think sort of helps decide where the parties prepare to settle on a frontrunner or whether the debate and some disruptive thing happens in iowa that makes the fight go on. in it particularly a lot of us for a year have been focused on this thing. a lot of americans are focusing for the first time tonight and this is a big part of that process, introducing those faces to the american people in a real way and saying, now let's go at it. jon: pat, here's a question from greg. he says, has south carolina become the true king-maker of the early primaris? what do you think?. >> well, since i live in south carolina i can tell you it has been very important in terms for the republican party. it has been a real firewall

generally for the establishment candidates in the past. what happens is, as joe said, as iowa begins to whittle the field it puts forth people that have a clear frontrunner or chaos. then you go to new hampshire and something will happen probably fairly decisive and probably romney will win. south carolina for the republicans has been the make-or-break state. it is what allowed john mccain to capitalize on his victory in last time after new hampshire. and it's important, it has been important for every republican. no republican in recent years has been nominated that has not won south carolina. just remember that. jon: here's a question, matt, for you. jim writes about ron paul. he says, i've heard discussion about his ability to get independents and democrats to register as republicans yet i keep hearing about his inability to be elected. what other current candidate has this sort of appeal and isn't that is what needed to win an election? matt? >> he raises a good point,

we do have the ability for any iowan to register as a republican tonight at their caucus site. with congressman paul it has been very interesting what is driving, kind of fueling some of his growth in iowa. it has been almost singular focus on the exploding national debt. if you look at his television ads it focuses on cutting one trillion dollars in spending. literally show federal agencies evaporating before your very eyes that is lesson for everybody outside of iowa, with independent voters who have been leaving the president, that issue related to debt and spending really has americans, specially independents here in iowa really looking for change. jon: all right. the momentum contest that is iowa begins soon. thanks to each of you for joining us. thanks to our viewers for sending in those questions. matt strawn, joe trippi, pat caddel. thank you. >> thank you, jon. jenna: real interesting conversation. we'll look for more as we move along the campaign trail in 2012. meantime this is a big business story. the hottest gift this holiday season may have been

a gun. we're going to tell you why next. ♪ .

jenna: looks like santa left more than ipads and gift cards under the christmas tree. those sound pretty good too. we're getting word gun sales soared for christmas. according to the fbi, gun dealers ordered a record breaking 1.5 million background checks last month a third of those coming just before the holiday. we mean just before the holiday, don't we? adam shapiro is with us from the fox business network. adam, tell us a little bit these background checks. >> reporter: that's what they are. they are background checks

when you go to purchase a firearm from a federally licensed gun dealer you have to go you there the background check whether you have been through it before every time you go to purchase one. we're seeing record numbers of background checks. some people say there is no correlation between total sales and the background checks because you might have one background checks purchasing, three, four, five, firearms. look at some of these numbers, general. >>. on the -- jenna. the day before, 23rd of december, the friday before christmas there were 102,222 applications for background checks. that was highest on record. on black friday, right after thanksgiving, there were 129,566 am cakes for background checks. there are previous records prior to 2011. so the lot line is that there were a lot of people who were buying firearms and these background checks were in place. keep in mind the total number of gun sales could be higher. one survey says 40% of the

all gun transactions takes place on secondary market. there are no background checks. through private dealers. jenna: is there anything indicate why gun sales went up? >> reporter: depends how ask. nra says people want to protect themselves. they want to be careful about things happening in the economy. the brady center, against gun violence actually says there is no correlation. they point to the fact that the number of us in the united states who own a firearm has been declining for several years. they cite one study that was released in 2004. in 198029% of americans owned a gun. in 2000, 22% of the population own ad gun. roughly in 2010, only 20% of americans own a gun. so they say the actual gun ownership son the decline. what you have higher concentration of guns with a smaller and smaller population within the total united states. jenna: depends how ask. adam, thank you very much. we'll continue to watch that story going into the new year.

jon: santa left a weapon under my tree. jenna: really? jon: yeah. jenna: what was that weapon. jon: my west pointer got a .45 caliber for christmas. he was excited to find that in his stocking. jenna: did you do a background check? i think santa did the background. this being new york state it is actually very tough. jenna: very, very hard. jon: you have to start that process way in advance. jenna: couldn't do it december 23rd. jon: you can't sit on santa's lap and have it show up the next day. jenna: that is always a good thing. jon: imagine this family gathering during the holidays. 14 kids and 93 grandchildren. meet the family from minnesota. grandpa sylvester married at 23 years old. had 14 children. they went on to have children of their own bringing grand total to 170 offspring. sylvester knows each of the grandchildren's name but working on the 73 great grandchildren. jenna: that is quite a shopping list i'm sure. what a family.

nice to hear about that. you know, one of our big stories, jon, we've been talking about is iran. iran is ratcheting up tensions in the persian gulf. the country's president is launching a new diplomatic offensive in our backyard. what it means for our security back home and abroad. we'll take a closer look. fox news is your complete home base for the live coverage of the iowa caucuses. interviews with the key players coming up in the next hour. don't forget to check out our website, foxnews.com for in depth content and analysis of tonight's big event. anberry juice? wake up! ♪ that's good morning, veggie style. hmmm [ male announcer ] for half the calories -- plus veggie nutrition. could've had a v8.

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>> reporter: rick folbaum at the assignment desk. all eyes on the caucus. des moines, iowa. republican-caucus goers and democratic caucus goers as well going and voting today. there are events taking place all across the state. this is rock the caucus, behind this woman is ron paul, he's one of the ones trying to win his we'll be keeping an eye on that, and our coverage begins on fox news at 6pm eastern time. and the second hour of "happening now" starts right now. jenna: rick gave us great context there. it is crunch time in the hawk-eye state today as iowa voters get ready to caucus. welcome to america's election headquarters, your destination

for politics. we are glad you are with us, everybody, i'm jenna lee. jon: i'm jon scott. for months we have been telling you about bus tours, town halls, chili dinners, rallies on the way to the 2012 elections. this is where the candidates are today and with hours to go before the caucus meetings begin the fight for iowa may depend on one group, all the undecided voters who have yet to make up their minds. bret baier is the anchor of special report and joins us now. how many people have you talked to who were still undecided, bret? >> reporter: i talked to a number of people in different events who said they were still tasting the flavor of different candidates, as one lady told me, and she was down to two. but most of the people you talk to at these events have come to their decision, and they are kind of sealing the deal. the fact that that des moines register poll over the weekend said 41% is still undecided is

pretty remarkable when you think about it. all of the folks going into precincts and hearing speeches that possibly could sway how they vote on that secret ballot. jon: it's hard to believe after all of the bus tours and everything we just mention they'd there are so many people undecided. what is the atmosphere there like right now. >> reporter: there is a lot of excitement, the weather is great, it's crisp and clear and chilly, nothing iowa handle. you listen to the governor, you listen to matt strom, they think the turn out will be eye. that could benefit someone like ron paul. people can register if they go, if they are a democrat or independent they can switch to republican. there are a lot of people looking at the turn out as a determinative factor of how this is going to play out today. jon: there has been a change this time around, these super packs have come in with a lot of

money and have sort of -- well how much has it changed the dialogue of this race? i guess that is the question. >> reporter: huge, huge, jon, i mean it's a big game-changer events. the super packs are a new development. there were 12 super packs that spent $12.9 million through new year's day in iowa and other early states, and this is a different environment. the most money for one candidate went to mitt romney, $4.6 million, and many of those ads were attack ads against newt gingrich. but every candidate besides rick perry was out spent by a super pack that was backing that candidate. think about that dynamic. the candidate could stay positive while the super pack who supports that candidate could really go on the attack. jon: the numbers from our brain room i think the candidates and the super packs have spent $100 plus per vote tonight, or per expected vote, right? >> reporter: it's an amazing

figure. and i think you heard chairman strahn earlier on your show saying, look out new hampshire this is coming your way, all of these robo calls an extra ads. i think you're going to see that in the early states at least until you winnow the field down and then we'll see exactly how intense this gets ahead of, you know, super tuesday and all the other big contests. jon: we had the map up earlier of where the candidates are, and virtually everybody is in des moines right now, that is kind of the center of gravity author these iowa caucuses, huh? >> reporter: yeah, a lot of morning show appearances, and a lot of appearances throughout town, and they were all centrally located. they probably won't stray too far from here because a lot of the victory gatherings, however the victory is determined are right around here, and we'll be at the state capitol just down the road, which is a gorgeous

building, if you've seen it throughout the days that we've been here. we are excited about tonight. jon: did you get a lot of sleep last night, i hope? >> reporter: i did, i did. i'm raring to go. a little coffee this morning, we are good. jon: good, you'll have your hands full. bret baier will be in the middle of it tonight. special coverage begins at 6:00pm eastern time special report. you can catch him 8pm eastern anchoring fox's coverage with megyn kelly and rick wallace. jenna: he was tweeting right through the night. we have a lot of coverage for you. jon: what are you doing reading his fleeting in the middle of the night. jenna: i was up at 5:00 in the morning. i was just checking him out. what is up with that? we are lens eight hours away from the start of the caucuses. it's a unique process, one of us that many of us may not be familiar with. shannon bream is live in des moines to take us through the steps. >> reporter: we want to give you an on site look at how this is going to play out.

this is point of church in wakee iowa. it seats about 900 people, one of 800 caucus spots tonight. there are two different precincts that will meet here together, they are expecting about a thousand people. all starts at 7:00 local time. folks show up. there are surrogates on site for the candidates to give short speeches. everyone gets a piece of paper. you can check off the candidates name, it may be blank, you can write down the candidate's name. they are tallied right here on site. different people can watch the process. the twal lease are announced they go in official form to the iowa gop. they total the votes up and let everybody know, hopefully some time in the wee hours of tonight or the morning exactly how it played out here in iowa. jenna: we'll be looking forward to those results as well. when we talk about the ground game, shannon what exactly are we talking about in iowa and how

important is that on a night like tonight? >> reporter: well political insiders tell us it is going to be very, very telling tonight. the people who have spent months or more here organizing all of their precinct captains, surrogates, supporters. tonight it's a cold, lengthy process for somebody, it takes patience and commitments. you want to make sure all the doors you knocked on, all the people you got to commit to you will turn around and get everybody out to vote. we talked with the governor's office and they say listen it's like nothing else and tonight the organization will show. take a listen. >> the campaigns with the best organization are going to call up every single last one of their supporters, which could number in the 20 to 30,000 range and make sure they know where to go on caucus night. organization also matters because at these individual precincts, and there is 1,774 throughout the entire state, you want to make sure that you're campaign has a precinct leader. >> reporter: all right.

as brett mentioned a little bit touching on this it doesn't matter if you're an independent or democrat sitting at home watching, if you show up here tonight, if you'r you have the right id and are at the right pay saint you can register as a republican and be voting in the caucus in 20 minutes. jenna: that is fascinating. you got a good spot inside tonight, a nice indoor location. >> reporter: absolutely. stpho: we were worried about you. . jenna: we were worried about you. i heard how bundled up you were. >> reporter: i know, no earmuffs inside. jenna: shannon bream in iowa today, thank you very much. jon: fox business alert now, wall street is starting the first trading session of 2012 with a big surge. right now take a look at the dow up 223 points. stocks traditionally rise in january, but can we expect wall street to keep up this kind of a rally? fox business network's elizabeth

mcdonald joins us live, so what is going on, what is this january affect all about. >> reporter: it's an historical stock market trend, jon, so go the early days of training in january, so goes the rest of the year in trading. what happens is wall street tends to dump the dogs of the dow to create tax losses, or to make their year-end performance look a lot better and within that air pocket after the new year's ball drops they buyback those stocks basically because they think there may be gains. small caps think apple before the iphone or starbucks before the latte. small cap stocks tend to get hit the most and possibly get bought back the most. let's take a look a little bit about what is going on with the so-called january effect. you'll see since 1950 a down january is typically followed by a bear market. the stock traders almanac says the bear market will be 13% or so. if the s&p 500 posts against in the first five trading days then

you're going to see 86% odds that the stock market actually ends the year higher, and that is a big odds right there. finally, since 1926 the small caps, when they do beat the big caps in the january effect, they tend to beat the large caps, get this. 76% of the time in january. but what is worth knowing here is bank of america, merrill lynch, that bank took a survey of fund managers and found a restrained mood when it came to buying equities, they are basically seeing that only 8% of the fund managers that recently were surveyed were overweight stocks by this time this year. back to you, jon. jon: not a lot of enthusiasm out there. a lot of questions about this market, won't you say? >> reporter: that's right, jon. the words would be restrained mood on wall street. by the way, 50-50 odds for the january effect actually working over the last decade, because we have bubbles bursting. the january effect does not work when you have big market events

like war or an oil embargo, like happened in the early 70s or bubbles bursting in the market, the january effect doesn't follow. jon: you need what, it's generally the first five days of january or the first five days of trading in january that sort of determine this? >> reporter: that's right. that is what you track is the first five trading days in january. as a precursor for what the rest of the year could look like. we'll be watching this one closely this week, jon, back to you. jon: i'm going to have jenna watch it for me. i'll keep my eyes closed. jenna: i have to cohost with you, i have to manage your stock portfolio, it's a really big job. jon: if only that were true. jenna: sky watchers will have to get up pretty early to see lights we are going to show you those, a little hint of what you might see tonight. we've already seen plenty of fireworks in the presidential campaign. former candidate herman cain will join news the newsroom to talk about the race, his plans

in the future. we have a lot of questions for mr. cain, we look forward to having him. we hope you watch our coverage of the caucuses tonight. we know you'll watch. >> reporter: what else are they going to do. 6:00 eastern time is when it all becomes on fox news channel. 8:30 on foxnews.com. great pundits, we'll be analyzing the results as they come in. you might not be able to vote tonight but you can certainly take part in the debate right now during the break go to the "happening now" home page of foxnews.com, america's asking is where you want to go, you log in, we have a live lee debate right there and wlively debate and a lot more "happening now" right after the break. don't go away. ok! who gets occasional constipation,

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[ female announcer ] ensure muscle health has revigor and protein to help protect, preserve, and promote muscle health. keeps you from getting soft. [ major nutrition ] ensure. nutrition in charge! jon: right now new information on stories we are watching across the u.s. and across the world. the u.s. economy ending 2011 on a relatively good note. december hiring picked up with manufacturing growing faster than any time in the past six months. and fights erupting at a parade in philadelphia, a group of revelers, brawling at the mummers parade which celebrates a mix of immigrant traditions. several people arrested there. attention meteor lovers, pack your blankets and hot cocoa. mother nature has a can't miss

show tonight. the phropbt grante phropbt plot granted meteor shower, 3 to 5:00pm eastern you have a good chance of seeing it from just about anywhere in the u.s. jenna: a lot of action today in iowa of course where most of the republican candidates are holding last-minute rallies in a final push to land on top. joining is now is a candidate who had a lot of supporter leon in the race, you know him herman cain, he suspended his campaign last month. he has not endorsed any of the candidates, but he's been a little busy. he welcomed a new grandchild. >> new year's day grandchild number 4. 2012 got off to a great start. jenna: how is the family. >> everybody is doing well, thank you very much. jenna: you said you're not going to endorse a candidate any time soon. i'll leave that question for a future interview that you have. you have said you are going to start a national month.

what does that mean? >> yes. that means when i was running as a candidate for a position called president, that didn't mean that because i suspended that, that i'm not -- this i'm going to abandon the mission of trying to get a republican elected to the white house. my main mission is to help debeat barack obama, along with my supporters. that is one of the reasons that i'm choosing not to endorse right now. i will probably endorse later, but being the unconventional candidate that i am, it will be an unconventional endorsement at some point in the future. jenna: what does that mean? >> what that means is it will be unconventional. it won't be -- i ran an unconventional campaign. jenna: what does support in the herman cain style look like. how do you think you can really impact the race? >> if i were to endorse a candidate now it might split my supporters. i don't want them to split. my objective with my new movement is to make sure that my

supportress, as well as people who feel politically homeless, that they stay informed, involved and inspired. in 2008 because a lot of voters westbound were not excited about john mccain they stayed home. one of the roles i plan to play in this is to try to help keep people inspired, because if you stay home because you may not believe that your candidate didn't get it, that won't be good. jenna: i see in your website have you a donate now link that is up there, it was up there when you were running for president, it's still up there now. >> yes. jenna: if i donate through your website what exactly is that going to? >> that site goes down tomorrow and the new site goes up under cain connections. cain connections is the site where we will have people go for the new movement that i'm going to announce on the shaun hannity tv show tomorrow night. jenna: that shaun, i'm going to have to police a call to him. >> i'm going to announce not only what the new national movement is going to be about

but i'm going to talk about some of its objectives and some of the specifics about how it's going to work. jenna: we'll look forward to that conversation. i want to ask you a little bit about some of your supporters. some of them being team members. you have a connection to the south being from georgia. >> yes. jenna: some have suggested that if mitt romney wins the nomination that will be a defeat for the tea party. people are really concerned about him and his ability to corral, for lack of a better word, tea party support, swell as supporas well as as support in the key states like florida. >> i think it's flight. the field should be narrowed down for the right reasons, not because of negative attacks. when you look at the south you have to consider how romney did the last time around. he did not win many of the southern states. the big question is, is he going to do better, and if so, why?

laura ingram races a very good concern. if you look at the polls in the southern states over the past several weeks and over the past couple of months governor romney appears to have plateaued after picking up a lot of support. even after i dropped out of the race a lot of my support sort of scattered. romney's support didn't really move that much. those are the two big concerns. jenna: are you ruling out romney as someone that you would choose to support for the? >> no, whoever gets the republican nomination i will actively support and actively try to get them elected. jenna: quick final question. what about a future roll in politics? what do you see for yourself as far as what that roll might be? is it a cabinet position? do you rule out running for president one day in the future. >> probably because of my biological clock i have ruled out running for president again, but i will stay involved, because i'm more concerned about helping to keep the focus on solutions to problems.

that's the operative word, that is the key word for what i'm going to talk about on shaun hannity's program tomorrow night. as far as a cabinet position, i'm open depending upon who gets to become president, and what it is that they would ask me to do. i do not want a ceremonial position in anybody's cabinet. jenna: how young are you again? >> i am 66 years young. jenna: you have a lot of good years left in you. >> i know, i'm probably only going to work actively nine more years. i didn't say 9-9-9, i said i'm going to work nine more years. jenna: i knew it was coming. i just new it. it's nice to have you back with us mr. cain. >> it's my pleasure. jenna: we look forward to your conversation with shaun hannity tomorrow night. jon: will social security be there for him is the question. a manhunt underway for two people accused in deadly crime spree. they last saw them getting away in a high-speed chase.

details straight ahead. newt gingrich making a final pitch ahead of the iowa caucuses, he's fighting back against negative ads. we will speak with his daughter. she joins us live next. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, we believe the more you know, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. because for every two pounds you lose through diet and exercise, alli can help you lose one more by blocking some of the fat you eat. let's fight fat with alli. ♪

jenna: fox news alert for you now. the search is intensifying for two suspects wanted in a deadly spree, rick has more on this. >> reporter: a dangerous situation is how a top u.s. marshal describes what is going on. they are wanted for a murder of an elderly couple in utah, and they are believed to have shot a woman in the head in nevada. that woman will survive we are told. at this point authorities do not know where the sept the suspects are. there is a federal task force that is leading the efforts to find them, along with law enforcement in both states where the crime took place.

it was that shooting of a woman outside a casino in nevada that led to a high-speed chase with the state police. the chase went on for about 50 miles. speeds topped 100 miles an hour before the suspects were able to get in the woods and get away. the car police say the suspects abandoned in utah turned up items that led police to the home of an elderly couple, leroy and dorthea fulwood had been shot and killed. they were driving a stolen gray jet tafplt it's a colorado plate 725whx. if you have any information please get in touch with authorities. back to you, jenna. jenna: we'll keep an eye on that, rick, thank you. jon: counting down to iowa now, just a matter of hours. for candidates like newt gingrich it is time to make a last minute pitch. with us now one of his biggest supporters, author, and

daughter, jackie cushman. >> glad to be with you. jon: how nervous are you about the vote tonight. >> more excited than nervous. we've been here a longtime, we've had a great time. great response from people. we are excited about where we are. every place dad goes there are more and more people showing up, asking questions, getting real answers for them, offering to caucus for him. we are not nervous, we are excited. jon: he was at one point about 30% in the polls in iowa. karl rove cold me this morning that george w. bush won with 31% back in the year 2000 but your family has seen his support slide. why? >> well there's been a huge amount of negative ads run here against him. if you look at all the negative ads in iowa about half of them have been run against dad. if you think about it, about $5 million roughly, and if you look at it on a per vote basis that wouldee sraeut to about

$5 billion on the national scene. there is a huge amount of negative ads run against him. i would encourage everyone to go to newt.org and look at the answers page to find out the truth about these terrible attacks. jon: what do you think is the biggest misconception that has been promulgated by those ads? >> well, that is a very interesting question, and i'm not going to go into the details. let me give you an example. there are a couple of things. one, dad is clearly the only candidate in the field, including barack obama who had at the national level, balanced a budget, reformed welfare, cut taxes, and cut spending. he's done it before, and he can do it again. no matter what anyone else said he's been a doer not a talker. so when people say, so hasn't this impacted him? yes, absolutely these ads have clearly had impact. he's been very clear this he's going to provide a much stronger contrast to the other candidates going forward, and i think we will see that. in the end for where we are now in the nation newt gingrich is

the president that we need. jon: one of the images that many of the candidates used against him was something that he did himself, it was the sitting down on the couch next to nancy pelosi, he says it's probably the single dumbest thing he's done in his political career. i mean, did you talk to him before he shot that commercial? did you question the wisdom of that public service announcement? >> you know, what do you do when you try to say we need to work on things together. he's admitted that that ad with us a bad ad. he has always been against cap and trade. that's what people try to insinuate when they throw that image up on the green. but he does believe that we need to figure out solutions to the environment, but he thinks they need to be solutions and not regulations, and talks about getting rid of the epa for an environmental solutions agency as well as having an american energy plan. jon: i don't hear people talking about your father winning this thing tonight, but there are a number of tickets out of iowa. let's say he doesn't win, what

is the arc over the next couple of weeks? what do you tell supporters to look for? >> i think you're exactly right. the importance about iowa is it is the first in the nation, and clearly we've had a huge learning curve here with all the negative ads that have been out. he's going to provide a much clearer contrast to the other candidates. additionally i think what we'll see is people will understand this is the first series of plays in the super bowl this is not the end this is the beginning and he's going to learn and the campaign is going to learn about what does and does not work, and we'll see how things progress from here. we are very excited. he is full of energy, and for those that discounted him in the summer and say the polls are following now he's the energizer bunny. he's the son after 27-year veteran of the infantry, his father served in the military for 27 years. he believes in service in his count throw and he's like the energizer bunny, he just goes on and on. jon: the historian who knows the history of presidential politics

in this country very well. jackie gingrich cushman thanks for being with us. >> thank you so much. jenna: she won the iowa straw poll. whatever happens tonight michelle bachmann says she's ready to move forward. >> i've demonstrated i am electable. i've won four very hard races in the last four years. i can do this. we've bought our tickets already for south carolina, we are going. jenna: before she goes to south carolina she is joining us live straight ahead here on "happening now."

jon: so the candidates are making their closing arguments ahead of the caucuses tonight. how are they use be these final hours to try to win one of the top spots? steve brown live in west des moines where some of the candidates are speaking at a local high school. steve. >> reporter: hey, there, jon, they are wrapping up the rock the caucus event. three republican presidential candidates came out to this event. michelle bachmann, rick santorum, and the candidate who got easily the loudest rounds of

applause, that would be ron paul. the ron paul campaign believes that it has grown the universe of likely republican caucus goers tonight, and lot of that has to do with the campaign's youth appeal. there is a great deal of affection for paul amongst college-aged students and young adults who like his less aggressive foreign policy stancess, so they believe over at the ron paul camp here in iowa that they have grown out this campaign. the rick santorum folks are kind of hoping for a couple of things to happen tonight, that the momentum that they picked up overall of these endorsements over the last several weeks and increasing polling numbers will help folks kind of selforganize. they do have a campaign organization that is working very hard, but they are counting on, or at least believing that there is some organic selforganizing going on out there in the communities as well. and the rick perry folks which

is interesting. he has an army of something in the neighborhood of 500 folks all from out of state who have been here for the last final push of this week. he today said this is our omaha, this is the beaches of normandie. he's basically saying we need to get out there and get some things done. interestingly caucus training for this group, just in case they didn't know how caucuses go, this is the flip side of having really broad support coming into the state, that in some cases have you to educate them how to caucus. perry folks doing a bit of that this morning. jon. jon: interesting times in iowa. steve brown, thank you. jenna: joining us now from des moines is gop presidential candidate michelle bachmann. she is an iowa native born in water lieu where she made her presidential announcement last summer. it's nice to have you back with us. i'd like to start the big picture here, congresswoman about why you want the job, from the date of your announcement at waterloo right now, forget about

the minutia, to the campaign, why do you want to be president? >> we only have one shot, general after getting rid of obamacare. it's socialized medicine. it's the number one reason that job creators aren't hiring. it's going to bring some of the largest tax increases we've ever seen, an unending dirth of new regulations, it's going to kill job formation. it's the first time in the history of the country we have taxpayer-paid abortion. on every level this is a terrible bill and we need someone who is actually going to fight and make sure that we repeal it. a lot of candidates have said that they would repeal it but i'm the only one who truly has the resolve to see it through. the reason why i say that is because we have candidates that have been behind the backbone of obamacare, which is the healthcare mandate for upwards of 20 years. i'm the only one that is going to help and work and elect 13 more republican senators, because that's what i'll need, 60 republican senators to repeal

obamacare, repeal dodd-frank, abolish the tax code, legalize americaand build the border fence. jenna: with the approval rating so low when we look at congress, why do you think a member of congress like yourself offers a type of leadership right now that the country needs when so many are so disallusioned with the process overall? >> i've been a very successful person in the private sector before i ever went to congress. i've been in congress for about four and a half years. but i earned may way up out of pofr taoefplt i was a very successful federal tax lawyer. my husband and i started from scratch a successful company, we employ scores of people in the private sector. i've raised 23 foster children and five biological kids. we started the first k-5 charter

school in the united states. i led an education reform movement in minnesota that was successful in a very tough political climate and i organized the tea party caucus in congress and i led the charge against obamacare and brought 40,000 americans to fight it. what i've demonstrated in the last five years is that i am, and i have acted, when i had my chance in washington, i fought the establishment, i fought the special interests, and of all of the candidates i am the one that is most in the image and likeness of a ronald reagan or a margaret thatcher. that's what our country needs right now, very strong, bold, direct leadership. jenna: congresswoman you offer a long list as you just mentioned. i want to pick up on one point in that list that you mentioned before, being a federal tax attorney. i want to talk to you about money now. you're going to south carolina immediately after the iowa caucuses. i got your media advisory. you're going to be there tomorrow night. you have events all set up in south carolina. the question is, do you have the

money? do you have the money behind you to actually have the infrastructure needed to continue in this race? >> well, we have so far, and just by way of an interesting fact, i've raised more money for my last race in congress than any member of congress in the history of congress. i have a proven demonstratable record of an ability to raise funds. of course it's an ongoing continuing process and we'd urge everyone to go to michelle bachmann.com and donate. what we see more than anything is my message of standing out for the united states and cutting spending. i'm a very strong fiscal conservative. i'm number one on club for growth list. people know that i have a proven record of cutting spending, that's what the next president has to do. i'm a fiscal hawk, and the other thing that we haven't talked about is the fact that of all the candidates in the race i'm the only one that has current experience in national security. that is becoming a premiere issue now with iran obtaining

potentially a nuclear weapon. i've received classified briefings like the president does. jenna: we have a full segment on iran coming up. it might sake a team to do all the things you're mentioning in washington. would you be open to a vice presidental position or a cabinet position in the future? >> i'm looking to be the next president of the united states. i won't deviate, i won't turn from principles, that's what we need, someone who is going to mean what they say. i'm sincere and i'll do it. jenna: congresswoman nice to have you. i know it's a busy day. we look forward to talking to you more in the future. good luck to you and your team tonight. >> thank you, jenna. jon: lots to keep track of ahead of tonight's iowa caucuses. megyn kelly is going to be part of the coverage. she joins us now live from the state capitol in des moines, megyn. >> reporter: hey, jon, how you doing? things are getting very exciting here in iowa today. folks are in the building and gearing up around the town and in the state for the caucuses tonight. x just gowe just got back from

a mitt romney event where he was trying to gear folks up to get out and caucus tonight. he could be the big winner, but we just don't know. 41% of the voters are still undecided. on the show we will speak with governor perry and governor romney. governor romney will be given the chance to respond to the scathing attacks that newt gingrich unleashed on him this morning. he seems to have a very message today after he said he would stay positive. we will go through the allegations one by one and hear the governor's response, governor perry as well, both firing and receiving incoming from rick santorum. those two viewing to see who might come in and gain the conservative vote. that is still very much up for grabs according to the pollsters out here, jon. we'll have all that plus karl rove, you name it we've got a full political line up for you today in terms of where the candidates are and where they are likely to be tomorrow. it's game day in iowa, jon

scott. jon: game day, and you've got to keep your voice. are you going to be able to hold -- keep the vocal cords intact for all of this? megyn: i was teetering on the etch of the cold and new year's eve put me overt edge. the excitement in time square was too much for me. i have 10 or 15 more hours of coverage, then i'll be able to rest tomorrow. jon: hot tea and lemon we'll be sending it to your hotel. megyn will be hosting our special coverage tonight along with bret baier and chris wallace. turn in at 6:00 eastern time as the caucuses gear up. she'll be along 16 minutes from now. we'll be right back. jenna shared her recipe with sharon, who emailed it to emily, who sent it to cindy, who wondered why her soup wasn't quite the same. the recipe's not the recipe... ohhh. [ female announcer ] ...without swanson. the broth cooks trust most when making soup. mmmm!

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election. whoever wins the nomination has to run obviously against president obama. now that the president is back from a family vacation in hawaii he is jumping feet first into the campaign as he gears up to try to win re-election in november. the president also has a rapid response team operating in iowa. joining us now in des moines a member of that team, brad wood house, communications director for the democratic national committee. who do you see as the likely republican winner tonight, brad? >> you know, i think mitt romney will probably win. i mean he's actually predicted yesterday that he would win. look, he's been here, you know, he's been campaigning for president for five years. he's been all in in iowa, twice. he and his allies spent $4 million in the month of december alone. but crawling over the finish line after spending all this time running for president is going to come at a high price, because he's really taking himself out of the mainstream on so many positions as it rye later to threlates to the

economy and immigration. he's hamstrung himself if he makes it to the general election i think. jon: you can't be too critical of a mitt romney spending $4 million in iowa, though, when your candidate the president has said he's going to spend a billion dollars to try to win re-election. >> we've never said that we going to spend a billion. there's been speculation. i don't think it is anywhere close to a billion dollars. we will have the money to within a campaign. the president is coming off of vacation, he has economic events this week, he's busy being president. the republican nomination will go on for a while. we'll get a chance to make the case to the american people about who is on the side of the middle class, the president has been or rom r-pl or any much the other republican candidates. >> you might very well have the money, but will you have the enthusiasm? there are a lot of suggestions that the president's base is very upset right now. >> gosh, let me tell you something, i have been just so pleasantly surprised as what

we've seen in iowa. i mean, we have -- tonight the purpose of the iowa democratic caucus tonight is not to turn out a lot of people, but we do have a lot of enthusiasm for the president here. we've held 4,000 face-to-face meetings with individual supporters. 1200 trains. 350,000 phone calls. i think we have so much enthusiasm in iowa that we'll come out of here better organized than who ever wins the caucus on the republican side and i think it will start to feed on itself in other states. jon: you've seen the president's popularity ratings below 50%. do you think you can get those back up by the time november comes around? >> look, they have started to pick up some, especially, you know, people kau the president fightinsaw the president fighting hard against republican whose did not want to do this payroll tax cut at the middle class, for example at the end of last year. if the president continues to talk about jobs and the middle class i think you'll see his approval rating improve. more importantly i think you'll see things for the american

public improve and i think we'll be just fine come november. jon: now you know have brad woodhouse is a member of the fast response team there to fight back against arguments. jenna: where iran is turning for support, some of it right here in our backyard.

jenna: a bit of a war of words right tphoeupb tense flying today. iran essentially threatening our country, warning an american aircraft carrier not to re-enter the gulf. all this as the iranian

president plans a bit of a grand tour, among his travel, eye heights to come in the next few weeks, cuba and venezuela. what exactly is happening with iran. we virginia foreign affairs columnist for the "wall street journal." what is happening with iran, how would you answer that? >> they are under pressure. sanctions are beginning to take effect. we are no longer targeting just their nuclear program but their oil sector. the iranians are looking for an out circumventing them by going to air allies. there is a long-standing relationship between hugo chavez and ahmadinejad. jenna: we continue get a ticket on that flight. >> it's a popular december minimum nation, one way or the other. and of course the iranians are threatening our naval a assets in the persian gulf. jenna: that's what happened

today. you have a chief saying iran will not repeat its warning. i recommend and emphasize to the american carrier not to return to the persian gulf. what happens if we do? >> well, this is a debate. i think they might have miss calculated. back in the late 1980s there was a so-called tanker war and we handed the iranians a very stunning defeat in the space of about a day. their naval assets are very weak. they could mine the strait of hormuz, but it would be a conflict with the best navy in the world. our fifth fleet is right there in bahrain. jenna: are we ready for that. >> the captains and mad rals i speak with say they are prepared for it all the time. we are developing a green-power navy. we have a very powerful and effective navy. the iran kwraeupbs would be foolish to pick this might. jenna: the army chief calling us

the enemy. when we do news report i don't call it the enemy. we call it the rogue nation for something like that. in talking about this policy, even between policy advisers and candidates, and the politicians have we done a good enough job of really explaining who the enemy is? >> well i don't think we v have. remember this is reminiscent of al-qaida. osama bin laden formally declared war again the united states long before 9/11 and we treated it as not a particularly serious threat before it was too late. iran has been waging war against the west for the 32 years of this regime. until now we haven't taken that seriously. we'll have to pay a proeus for that especially if iran aeu inquires a nuclear weapon. jenna: i look forward to having you back to talk about the tour. mahmoud ahmadinejad is on the move. we'll have you back.

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