jon: it has been a fast couple of hours. jenna: and it's only going to get quicker. [laughter] jon: thank you for joining us. jenna: "america live" starts right now. megyn: fox news alert, you are looking live at des moines, iowa. 1 p.m. eastern time, 12 p.m. central, january 3, 2012. we are now less than eight hours away from the point at which voters take the first big step toward picking the republican candidate for president of the united states. in the election's first in the nation contest. welcome to "america live," i am megyn kelly here, life, in des moines, iowa, in the state capitol building. fasten your seat belts, it is decision day here in iowa, and we have a wild two hours ahead of us. we start with a look at turnout, momentum and possible last minute surprises with tim albrecht, the communications director for iowa governor terry branstad and an old pro at the caucus process. tim, so far the weather here in iowa is cold but lovely, what

kind of a difference does that make in terms of turnout tonight? >> thanks, megyn. the weather makes a huge difference here not only on caucus day, but in the month leading up to the caucuses when all of these candidates were doing their bus tours, stopping on town squares, going into local pizza ranches. a lot of people turned out to see these candidates because iowans gather their information right from the candidate, and that's been beneficial because when a candidate's in front of an iowan, they ask for their support, and if an iowan gives you their word they're going to support you at the caucus, you better believe they'll follow through on caucus night. megyn: and yet 41% of them continue to say they are undecided in terms of who they will cast their vote for, so the actual caucus process tonight, how critical is it, how important is the exchange of information and the conversations that iowans will have with their neighbors when they show up tonight at 7 p.m. central time? >> this is where the

much-talked-about organization really kicks into effect, and you need to make sure that you have a precinct leader at all of iowa's 1,774 precincts, and they make sure that iowans across the state show up right at 7:00 on a cold, dark night to cast their vote. so when they get there, they're going to see signs, they're going to see stickers, there's going to be la cards all over the place, and that is going to show momentum for certain candidates, and it's going to be the downfall of others because, ultimately, an undecided iowan who has viewed all these candidates is going to want to go with the winner. so whoever's west organized is -- best organized is the person they're going to cast their vote for. megyn: are they going to go with the winner if they believe it's someone more moderate like mitt romney or more outside the mainstream of conservative republican thought, say, like ron paul? might they do that when iowa historically has been a more conservative state and has gone along with folks like george w. bush, for example, mike huckabee last time around?

>> i think what iowans are looking for this year more than any other is who can defeat barack obama and who is best equipped to turn around the economy. they've seen all these candidates, they like some of what all the candidates have to say. but when push comes to shove, they're going to look at that candidate who can defeat barack obama next year and turn around the economy. ultimately, that's what they'll make their decision on. and it'd be a mistake to base the turnout or the results here on four years ago. it's a completely different country at this point after four years of barack obama. the economy's in the tank, and we need somebody to turn that around. and that, the candidate who can best articulate that the is one who's going to be successful tonight. many meg how motivated -- megyn: how motivated are iowa republicans to get out there and cast the first votes of the presidential season tonight? >> well, i think all you have to do is look at the fact that there have been a record amount of debates, 13, with huge audiences, and iowans are sitting on their couch getting the information through debates,

watching them for two hours 13 times over. so it'd be a mistake to think that those people would not turn out for a half hour at their local caucuses. iowans are motivated, they understand that this is the state that launched barack obama, and this is the state that's going to help sink him. megyn: tim, thank you. see you later torrent. tonight. >> thanks, megyn. megyn: so how do the caucuses work? once the caucus is called to order, party leaders will take care of general business like selecting a chairperson and a secretary to lead the night's proceedings. it all happens very quickly. then representatives will speak briefly about the candidates before participants cast their votes. now, you only have a representative speak on your behalf if you've got somebody there. the vote is conducted by a show of hands or paper ballot. if it's a small caucus, they might do show of hands. the larger ones probably written secret ballot. the results will then be counted and immediately called into party headquarters.

all candidates can have a representative during the process. then that gets reported to the media. there is no charge if you want to participate, although the party usually will ask for donations, and we should expect results, we hope, within about 60 minutes from the time things get under way. how about that? so when you have a question, you google it, and as the clock starts ticking, the remaining undecided voters in iowa have some questions of their own. so what or who is getting searched right now with respect to this race? john roberts has that piece of the story, he's live with the google operations team at the polk county convention center right here in des moines. hey, john. >> reporter: hey, good afternoon to you, megyn. big question, how are those undecided voters going to break tonight? we're getting some trends here with daniel seaberg. we have got -- my mic is down. maybe i can go ahead. this is a quick visualization,

you can see ron paul and mitt romney and michele bachmann a little bit smaller. >> and what are we finding in terms of rick santorum? >> yeah. so this is also over the past week. relative to rick santorum search terms, what's most interesting is that 300% number down at number five, that's santorum in iowa. and, in fact, today and yesterday what we're seeing is nearly five times as many searches related to rick santorum in iowa as a week ago. >> reporter: his popularity, that surge continues. some people are looking for, you know, who best reflects their family values, others are looking for electability. one of those people we checked in -- i've got to go over here because my mic's not working. at a romney event last night, here's what he told us he's looking if for before he caucuses. >> true. to a certain extent it's almost who's most electable, too, because at the end of the day it's all about trying to beat president obama and whoever can do that is the person to go

with. >> reporter: so that's the person he's going to go with. we're noticing, too, as candidate popularity rises, what do we see in terms of rick santorum? >> exactly. this is also pulled from google.com/elections, and in this case rick santorum getting a tough question from the voters. >> you want to look to the future, but i have to. >> oh, please do. >> that's what they're attacking right now. >> reporter: rick santorum being asked some difficult questions. >> that's right. it's sort of a double-edged sword. >> reporter: so rick santorum, megyn, still trending very high as all this information comes in to gool -- google. back to you. megyn: john roberts, thank you. fox news is your home base for the first in the nation iowa caucuses. our special coverage begins tonight at 6 p.m. eastern time right here on the fox news channel with brett bay and special -- bret baier and special report. we return at 8 p.m. for our special coverage and in the meantime dwowk to foxnews.com,

your main source for politics. speaking of tonight's caucuses, things could get messy. in a development we told you about last week, some of the occupy wall streeters are promising to disrupt some precincts tonight. trace gallagher has more on that. hey, t.g.. >> reporter: hey, megyn. you know, the goal really is to make sure things don't get ugly tonight, and police departments across iowa are putting plans into place. maybe even back as far as ten days they've been arresting a few of these protesters every day. you have to keep in mind that these occupy protesters are rallying against both democrats and republicans t at a des moines hotel, nearly a dozen occupiers were arrested after they laid on the floor of the lobby of the hotel because democratic officials simply would not meet with them. the official line across the state is pretty simple, it says nobody gets any special treatment tonight at all. the precincts are told that any

iowan who shows up should be offered the chance to register and then to vote, and anyone else should be allowed to observe. but one of the caucus leaders is already laying down the gauntlet saying, and i'm quoting here, we are not just going to tolerate in rural iowa what's going on in the big metropolitan areas. a little thump therapy never hurt anybody. not exactly a quiet coexistence. tensions already getting kind of a little tight over the past week, they expect those to rise tonight, and the cops are vowing to make sure that this thing goes off smoothly across the state, megyn. megyn: yeah. they had predicted that there might be mass arrests, those planning these protests had predicted that. so we shall see. trace, thank you. >> reporter: okay. megyn: also making news to the, new tensions between the u.s. and iran as iran threatens serious fallout if u.s. returns its aircraft carrier to the persian gulf. we're live with the details on that. and mitt romney predicting

victory today, but what's the vibe like for him in iowa? we'll show you some behind-the-scenes video of one of his campaign rallies. and governor rick perry pumping up his record in texas to win over the hearts and minds of voters here in iowa. could it give him a leg up? we will ask him live on this show right after this break. [applause] >> it is a powerful moment in america's history. [cheers and applause] and you are on the front lines. [applause] >> this is omaha beach. are you receiving a payout from a legal settlement or annuity over 10 or even 20 years? call imperial structured settlements. the experts at imperial can convert

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♪ because your moment is now. let nothing stand in your way. learn more at keller.edu. megyn: this is live on the campaign trail all day today, we are following all of the candidates as they make their final big push in iowa. you're looking live here at newt gingrich taking questions at the drake restaurant in the community of burlington, iowa. we hope to speak with speaker gingrich live in the just about an hour from now, stay tuned for that. well, governor rick perry is hoping to exceed expectations tonight in the iowa, hoping his texas record will win over voters. could that work? joining me now, republican

presidential candidate, rick perry, governor of texas. governor, thank you so much for being here. >> good to be with you. megyn: do you think we've focused so much on polls and progress and not on records? >> i think there's been a lot of talk about substance and records, so the issues are not that we're not talking about the differences between the candidates. certainly, we've been doing that. and i think iowans are plenty smart to figure out that they want an outsider to go to washington, d.c., to overhaul it, that another washington insider can't fix what's broken up there. megyn: you seem to be pointing out some insider history of senator santorum's a lot lately. you've been taking him on on the campaign trail because you guys, to the surprise of many, are pretty close in the polls right now because he was dead last, now he's made a surge, now you're pretty tight. you came out and talked about him as being a porker's best friend in a commercial. what do you mean? >> here we are in iowa where we love pork, but we don't like pork in washington, d.c. and we were having a little fun with that and, obviously, bringing the comparable that

this is an individual who's running as a fiscal conservative, but the fact is he voted eight times to raise the debt ceiling in washington, d.c., earmarks, he's an earmark king, if you will. i mean, whether it was the montana sheep institute or the teapot museum in one of the carolinas or whether it was a rain forest in iowa, he voted for all of these spending bills. and we know what the deal is. listen, if you'll help me out on my spending bill, i'll help you out on mine. and it's i'll scratch your back, you scratch mine, and the american people are the ones that end up getting fleeced. so, please, don't tell me what a great fiscal conservative you are when your record doesn't hold up to that type of scrutiny in washington d.c. and americans understand that is problem number one, is the spending. and we've got to get it under control. and so the insiders that have been up in d.c. for all these years, if we expect them to fix what's broken, no, because they're the ones that broke it. megyn: he says if you don't let

senators earmark projects, then it's going to go to the president. >> well, he's just basically saying there's not a better way to do it, and i happen to think there is a better way to do it. one of the ways is to have a part-time congress. i don't think they need to spend that much time in washington d.c. cut their pay, cut their salary, cut their staffs, send them home, let them have a real job like everybody else does, and live under the laws you pass. america will be substantially better off, you do that and have a balanced budget amendment to the united states constitution. megyn: you think newt gingrich suffers from the same problem. >> i think all of them do. you've got 63 years collectively in the united states between bachmann, paul, santorum and gingrich, and you've got an insider from wall street in mitt romney. and look at what those two institutions have done to america over the course of the last ten years. i mean, it has really put america and our economic future in jeopardy. and on the other hand, you've got a governor that signs six

balanced budgets, we have a balanced budget amendment to our constitution in texas. our legislature meets only 140 days every other year, and we lead the nation in the creation of jobs. that's what americans are looking for, a person who's principled, not tied to that washington crowd. megyn: but they also want somebody who can win, and they want, you know, that's why a lot of people believe that mitt romney is doing as well as he's doing, even with conservative voters who don't think he's conservative, because they think he can beat barack obama. you, they think, are a social conservative, but you're still lumped in with gingrich, with santorum, with bachmann, why should voters believe that you are the man to nominate, that you are the one who can take this all the way? >> there's only 25% of the people that think mitt romney can win here in iowa, so that's not exactly an overwhelming number. but it's governing executive experience. eleven years of running the 13th largest economy in the world, leading the nation in the creation of jobs. this isn't about talking the

story, this is about i've done it. megyn: how about your ground game in terms of going forward? how well organized are you, how much money do you have to do it? >> oh, absolutely. when you look at the other candidates, there's not anybody we're talking about here who has a better ground game, who's got the ability to raise national money, who has the ability to win and take it to barack obama. you want a stark contrast with barack obama? rick perry is it from the standpoint of economics, from the standpoint of social issues, from the standpoint of my military background and my foreign aid experience. i mean, those are are all issues that americans are looking for. megyn: is there any routine you go through tonight as you prepare to watch and receive the results? >> i just treat it like another day. this is a marathon. this is the first step in many more steps to go in this process. megyn: is there -- so even if you came in dead last, you're still in this race. >> i'm not going to come in dead last, but the fact is we're here to win, and we're here to win the presidency of the united states. i think americans truly want

somebody that they trust, that is an authentic conservative, not a conservative of convenience, somebody that has principles and lives them every day, and rick perry's that person, and i've got the record to prove it. megyn: governor, you must be exhausted. >> it's been awesome. good to see you. megyn: thank you very much. we appreciate it. mitt romney comes up next, folks, you will hear from governor romney in our next hour, what his vote will mean for his national effort. 2:15 eastern time right here. also, iran stepping up its war of words over one to have the world's most vital passageways for oil. the threat the rogue nation is making now against a u.s. warship and the response from america. plus, part of an estate belonging to great britain's royal family now a crime scene. what police are saying about the body of a woman found there. and what are the chances that mitt romney can have a great showing tonight in iowa? what is his support really like here? we'll go behind the scenes at a romney event for a firsthand look coming up. >> this is the governor right

here. he's about to make his exit after about a 20-minute speech to the potential iowa caucus cas goers. these caucuses and your performance in them relates very much to who shows up and how persuasive they are to their friends and neighbors. mitt romney made the case moments ago, he will hope they make the case to their friends and colleagues tonight. [ male announcer ] cranberry juice? wake up!

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megyn: we are live here in des moines, iowa, a little less than seven hours now to the start of the iowa caucuses. a couple of other stories we're also tracking at this moment include a bizarre murder mystery now shaking up england's royal

family after the remains of a female murder victim were found on an estate, the estates belonging to queen elizabeth. the woman's body was apparently discovered by a member of the public who was walking in the area, and the body may have been there for some time. police are now scouring the woods for any clues and are ring any reports -- reviewing any reports of missing persons. iran's military is now making direct threats against the united states warning america to keep one of it aircraft carriers out of the persian gulf. the move is the latest show of force in a series of war games by iran's military. leland vittert following the story live for us from jerusalem. leland? >> reporter: hi, megyn. the iranian naval chief of operations said i don't want to have to warn the americans more than once to not send any aircraft carriers through the straits of hormuz, and the united states navy essentially said we are going to send our aircraft carriers when we want, as many time times as we want

and for whatever reasons we want. they could tried to show the world they could, indeed, shut down the straits of hormuz which is responsible for about one-sixth of the world's oil, and iran's threat, essentially, is we will close the strait if world stiffens sanctions against us. and the video that they put out really didn't show the kind of military might and blue water navy that experts say iran would have to have in order to shut down the straits, but they did launch a couple of surface-to-surface missiles which could be used against a super oil tanker which would send the world into chaos. the missile they launch has a range of 75 miles, more than enough to cover that area of ocean. the united states, though, has had aircraft carriers in the persian gulf for a very, very long time and, in fact, during the 1980s american aircraft carriers were used to escort

kuwaiti-flagged oil tankers during the iran and iraq war. there was an incident where a u.s. ship hit an iranian mine, and it damaged the u.s. ship. the u.s. and the iranian navy got into a little bit of a vimmish, so, number one, the u.s. views the straits of hormuz as something worth fighting for, and number two in that naval battle, the iranians did not fare very well. back to you. megyn: leland vittert, thank you. we are also tracking new developments today with more than three dozen arson fires in los angeles. why police think the prime suspect may not have acted alone. and president obama is also making a big push for iowa tonight, hoping to rebound from some sinking approval ratings here. we'll show you what he's doing and see whether it will be enough to convince voters in a state he did win handily last time around. and folks, we are now just six hours away from the iowa

caucuses and less than an hour away from mitt romney and newt gingrich live right here with me. don't touch that dial.

megyn: we are a little over six hours away right now from the iowa caucuses where the enthusiasm and energy of a candidate's supporters are key. what's the support like for mitt romney? i went behind the scenes this morning at one of his events to take a look. mitt romney just wrapping up about a 20-minute speech to potential caucus goers here in des moines at the performing arts center. this is how it's done, one room at a time, between 50 and 100 people trying to make their last minute decisions about whether this is the guy they want to put at the top of the gop ticket to challenge president obama. there weren't that many people here, but mitt romney had the

same enthusiasm he's had all along. he's flanked by his wife, by tour of his -- four of his five sons, and this is how they do it, one venue at a time. you'll see young people, old people, there are a lot of press to bring the word out not just to iowans, but to the national voters too because mitt romney's hoping that no matter how well he does in the iowa, the national trail will be very, very good to him. you will hear from governor romney in our next hour when he joins us live right here. >> he will, as you've mentioned, be delivering remarks to iowa democratic caucus goers this evening from washington via video link. and he will use that opportunity to thank his supporters in iowa who will turn out by the thousands for what they did four years ago in showing up at the caucuses in record numbers and

delivering him an important and historic victory. megyn: well, that was white house spokesman jay carney moments ago talking about president obama's plans to rally the democratic troops in iowa tonight. these two polls may show the reason why. the latest nbc poll is finding only 45% of iowa voters approve of the job the president is doing. anything under 50% is considered not good for an incumbent president. the current numbers are a far cry from a gallup poll taken during mr. obama's first six months in office. back then his job approval in iowa was a very robust 61%. leslie marshall is a syndicated radio host and a fox news contributor, and lars larson is also a syndicated radio host. all right, guys, it's interesting because all eyes are on the republicans, and it seems, you know, the democrats, president obama may be feeling a little ignored understandably, but that's, of course, because he already has the nomination for his party. lars, does he need to rally his support here in iowa given those numbers we're talking about

here? >> i think he has to rally his support all across america, megyn, because americans have figured out that that hope/change didn't work out very well for most americans, and i think that's reflected in the poll numbers you just cited. the fact is americans heard the president's promises, and they understand that he didn't come through with them. he was not a uniter, he didn't keep unemployment below 8.5%, he didn't bring jobs to america, and he didn't restrain federal spending. this is a problem for the president, and it's going to be a problem all the way to november. megyn: leslie, you know, the president's got 20 paid employees here, his campaign, he's got eight offices in iowa. he's going to be talking too his supporters via a live internet video feed tonight. he's actually going to take some questions. his remarks begin at 8:15 p.m. eastern time, right smack dab in the middle of the gop iowa caucuses. he obviously considers it to stay important in the conversation of this state, to the extent that he has not been a part of that conversation, how

damaging is that, do you think, to the democratic side? >> i actually don't think it's damaging because we are a lifetime away. i mean, what happens in iowa in november is key to president barack obama. and certainly, i would agree with you, lars, on a national level he and the left as well as those on the right have to rally the troops. but like he said on jay leno, he's going to wait until everyone is voted off the island. right now the spotlight is on republicans, and right now that's why, because he's already -- he's got his place on the platform. this is not a caucus for him, this is a caucus for the republicans. the real test, obviously, is going to be with the voters in iowa and the rest of the country in november. >> megyn, i've got to disagree with leslie because here's the thing. the president, leslie's suggesting all he has to worry about is his opponent. no. he has to worry about his employers, the american public. has he performed for the american public? three years in he hasn't, and he said if it's three years in and i really haven't done the job, then it's going to be a one-term

presidency. i think the president's prediction is going to be absolutely right. he hasn't performed for his employers. and if all he's worried about is how do i beat the republican, whichever one wins the nomination, the president is missing the point. he's disconnected from voters, and he's disconnected from the american public. he's off having rounds of golf and taking $4 million vacations to hawaii. >> that's right, lars, republican presidents -- megyn: how dare he take a vacation, leslie. listen, he carried iowa by nine points over john mccain who was, you know, not a staunch conservative, john mccain, considered a little more moderate but nonetheless, lost handily to president obama in a pretty conservative state. it's a little more purple, but certainly on the gop side it's more conservative. what does it say to you that the president is already starting to, you know, interject himself in iowa politics, he's got this ground game going in iowa? is this a must-win state for him and should he be concerned of the drop in that approval rating from 61% to 45? >> honestly, i know lars is

going to think i'm nuts, but, no -- >> yes. >> looking after an election when you're on the hope/change upswing at the beginning of a presidency, you're looking at a very different situation. and we're not just talking on the leavitt, and we're not just talking for the president. congress is, what, a 16% approval rating among -- megyn: if that. i think you're being generous. >> yeah, yeah, you're right. i gave a double digit there, right, megyn? [laughter] the bottom line is this is a very different time not only for the economy where we as a station stand not only economically, but with foreign relations. and, look, this is going to be a tough election for both people on the left and the right, and the president knows this. he is getting closer to seeing who's going to be on that platform, the election's in november, and quite frankly, he hasn't been in iowa as these other candidates have. personally, i think he should be there in person, but that would cost money, and lars would be very upset with that.

>> yes, he should. no, no, no, i agree with leslie about that. and here's the thing, in terms -- to the extent that iowa has any predictive ability about the way the race is going, i think it has this: the chairman of the gop in iowa told me last night on my radio show they've had 33 months of party registration growth in that state. now, that tells you something. it tells you that even though iowa went for obama, iowa has been falling away from obama for the last two and a half years. that's a major problem when you realize that the candidate who says, oh, i've already got the nomination, great, but you're losing the people who have got to vote for you in november. i think he's in trouble, and he knows it, and he ought to be there in person. megyn: all right, guys, we're going to have to leave it at that. thank you so much, leslie and lars, we'll talk to you later in the week when we finally know the results of the iowa caucuses. and talk about getting a lesson in democracy, take a look at this. this is a group of students visiting from taylor high school in north bend, ohio, today right here in the iowa state capitol.

hold on, hold on, wait for it. they are from taylor high school, teachers are michael and mandy, they are here to learn how a caucus takes place watching democracy in action. history and u.s. government and politics. what do you think of the process so far? [laughter] awesome be. that's a pretty cool field trip, i have to say. we went to, like, the state museum. these guys traveled from outside of cincinnati, hemmer's hometown, all the way to iowa to see how it works. welcome. hope you enjoy it. well, a collective sigh of relief in los angeles as police question a man who may be responsible for terror eyeing the city. folks may not want to relax yet as police warn this guy may not be working alone. we'll explain in a live report. plus, many of you may not remember but ronald reagan actually lost the iowa caucuses. his campaign was saved by a now-famous debate outburst in new hampshire. so which way are the reagan

republicans breaking now? we will ask his son coming up. >> mr. green, you asked for me -- i am paying for this microphone, mr. green! [cheers and applause] [ male announcer ] this is coach parker... whose non-stop day starts with back pain... and a choice. take advil no and maybe up to four in a day. or choose aleve and two pills for a day free of pain. way to go, coach.

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megyn: welcome back to des moines, iowa, where candidates are using the next couple of hours to make their final pitches all over this state. we just received video of michele bachmann addressing the rock the caucus assembly at valley high school in west des moines. >> tonight i'm urging all of you to come out to the caucuses

because tonight is your night to weigh in and make a difference. megyn: ron paul also there reaching out to young voters. [cheers and applause] >> we have to look for a change, and the change is not complicated. the change is just restoring what was -- those principles that made america great. megyn: well, rock the caucus is part of rock the vote, an initiative to increase young people's participation in elections. well, we've seen a number of candidates rise and fall in the polls in this race, but mitt romney has been fairly consistent so far polling most of the time in the 20s. and my next guest says that's because voters don't like him very much. bill kristol is editor of the weekly standard magazine and a fox news political analyst. well, that's not a nice thing to say about mitt romney and his supporters. >> i take it back. [laughter] megyn: they like him about 20-25%. >> exactly. he got 25% of the vote four years ago, 30,000 votes, and it'll be interesting to see whether he can increase his

vote. he ran four years ago, he was an unknown former one-term governor of massachusetts, introduced himself to the citizens of iowa and did pretty well. if he didn't get more votes this time against what's not a terrific field, i do think it shows it's a bit of a predicter for future states that there is just resistance for one reason, fair or unfair -- megyn: you know what the reason is. you are a true conservative, and true conservatives don't necessarily believe he's a true conservative, so they're hemming and hawing about him. but if he becomes the nominee, are you going to stay home on election night? >> no, but i don't know who i'm going to vote for in the virginia primary. but i am struck talking to an awful lot of iowa republicans, they are aware -- and i think republicans across the country are -- they want to keep looking at these candidates. a lot of them will vote tonight, but they haven't made up their minds, and it is so fluid and volatile out there. they're looking at polls and snapshots and assuming one knows what's going to happen is crazy.

you know, president obama you reported just now that he, he's butting in tonight, doing some internet feed from washington to talk to the democrats -- megyn: yeah. democratic iowa caucus goers even though there's not a caucus going on -- >> no, it's cheesy. i'm really a little offended by this. i worked in the white house and, obviously, there's politics and partisanship in the white house, but he's the president of the united states. there's nothing going on on the democratic side, can't he just deal with iran -- megyn: is he just trying to get in the news? >> it's such a pathetic way of doing it. he's now being hurt by not being presidential. a lot of people voted for president obama in 2008, they still wish him well, they still want him to succeed. we have a year before the election, and he's wasting time tonight to do what? give some silly talk to iowa democrats? that's not going to effect what happens in november. it shows how political this white house is, and ity that does offend hemo. megyn: the white house seems to be focused on mitt romney.

they have been unleashing some ads on him, the campaign, that is, for barack obama. do they have it right? do you think that mitt romneyer irrespective of how you feel about him getting the nomination, is the biggest threat to barack obama in terms of the general direction? >> i don't know. he has not been subject today a lot of negative attacks -- megyn: mitt romney? >> no, they've been busy cutting each other up. others have been -- megyn: perry went at him. >> a little bit. we just don't know how well, honestly, romney will stand up to attacks if he's the nominee. megyn: the biggest charge against him is he's a flip-flopper, and that's from president obama who, what's he going to say, that he used to be liberal and now he's conservative? won't that appeal to some -- >> flip-flopping's not the biggest charge. the biggest charge is out of touch, rich guy who -- megyn: laid off workers. >> and more generally isn't in touch with the middle class america. rick santorum has come up because partly it was his turn

and he went to all the counties here, but what is his message? his message is the middle class populace message. it's not quite the orthodox republican, the most important thing we can do is cut corporate taxes. megyn: no, it's about manufacturing, manufacturing, manufacturing. >> right. jobs, jobs, jobs, and families, families, families. not necessarily pro-wall street, pro-big business -- megyn: he was a defender. rick perry was on her earlier saying he was one of your guys, president bush, he was one of those big spenders. >> spending the money is a problem, but being an apologist for wall street and big business would, i think, be dangerous in a general election which is why i'm not entirely convinced that romney's the strongest republican against obama. i think they all have a good chance, and honestly, we in the media should let the people vote, and it's really exciting what's happening here. megyn: isn't it? just american politics at work. >> and it's going to heap

happening. a lot of my friends in the media don't like it, they want to tell the voters, here's what's going to happen. we're not prophets. we have very little foresight -- megyn: and if we were, we'd use our talents for much greater gain than this. [laughter] >> exactly. megyn: something that could actually help us. >> there's a reason we're not using those talents for that. megyn: indeed. bill kristol, thank you very much. well, we talked to rick perry, as i mentioned, about a half hour ago, and governor mitt romney will join me in about 20 minutes and, wow, is he going to be unhappy with this guy. don't worry, i won't mention you. and then there is newt gingrich, can he survive his steep fall in the polls, and does he have to beat rick perry tonight? that's what chris stirewalt is saying. newt gingrich in what may be his most important interview today, less than an hour away. and who called the cops? a little girl and her mother get the scares of their lives when a couple of library books don't get back on time.

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megyn: well, this may be the first time a 5-year-old has ever been in trouble with the law for reading. that's what happened to one little girl in charlton, massachusetts. her mother says they took two books out of their local library and forgot to return them for several months, it happens. and that's when the police came knocking on their door. >> i looked at my daughter, and she started crying, and i said, what's the matter? she goes, is that policeman going to arrest me? >> i was scared. >> nobody wanted to on this end get involved after the high prayer contacted us -- library contacted us, apparently, i was

one of the low men on the totem pole. megyn: haley and her mother returned the books, the library only sent police to their home as a last resort. okay. well, new developments today into the l. a. arson investigation. police are now questioning their prime suspect about a motive saying they're not ruling out the possibility that others may also be involved. william la jeunesse live with that story from our l.a. bureau. william? >> reporter: we're learning more about the family. this arson suspect is a german national from frankfurt who apparently came to southern california with papers from chechnya. his mistake, however, was calling attention to himself recently with an angry outwas in court -- outburst in court where he made multiple anti-american statements during an extradition hearing for his mother, dorothy, who's wanted on criminal charges out of germany. so a state department official remembered the scene, and when

he saw this surveillance video, recognized the person of interest in the arson case. he contacted police. burkhardt lives in a second story apartment in hollywood. neighbors don't know if he had a job. he is charged with one count of arson now and is being held without bail. >> an arrest is not a prosecution, and a prosecution is not a conviction. we are very confident in this arrest, but we have a long way to go. >> reporter: now, in a county of ten million people, catching burkhardt wasn't easy, but at 3 a.m. yesterday a reserve deputy by night saw a man that matched the description of the one sought by the cops. yesterday officials praised him for making the stop. >> a full-time attorney and a part-time reserve deputy sheriff, although for the past four days he's been working full time for a dollar a year -- >> give him a raise.

>> and i'll give him a raise of another dollar a year. >> reporter: l.a. county uses reserves to supplement staff. he's from tehran, he just qualified, megyn, to ride solo in a squad car. we also did hear that harry burkhardt's mother is going to be in a courtroom today on extradition to germany on those criminal charges, and burkhardt himself will be in court tomorrow on the arson charges. back to you. megyn: william, thank you. well, newt gingrich going after mitt romney like he has not done before, explicitly calling governor romney a liar. we will get the governor's reaction when he joining us live here, right here on "america live" in moments. plus, we'll also speak with newt gingrich live. and police may have the break they're looking for in a series of fire bombings, some of the attacks targeting places of worship. that's leaving a community on the edge. and when words are hardly enough, a family trapped in their car in a frigid river now talking for the first time about their horrifying ordeal and the

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megyn: fox news alert. we are now just six hours away from the first in the nation contest in campaign 2012 and the fight is getting fierce between two top candidates, both whom will join us live this hour. brand-new hour of "america live." welcome to this special edition of "america live" from iowa. i'm megyn kelly. a look at capitol building in des moines. i'm right dead center of the building. you can see the bell from the uss iowa behind me as we

broadcast the next hour. michele bachmann, mitt romney and newt gingrich will hold their caucus party in this city. all six making the most of their last chance to convince undecided voters. can you imagine what they are going through? this is the first vote of the presidential season and these candidates have been in this state for months trying to make their pitch to iowa voters. news * and mitt romney will be taking a break from campaigning to join me in a few minutes. you heard from rick perry. after a fierce day of attacking each other with who is being honest with voters. pollsters are calling this caucus the most unpredictable contest the polling companies have seen in years.

scott rasmussen, is an independent pollster and author of "the people's money." scott, you have issued a cautionary warning for people who are putting too much stock in the polls as we have seen them leading up to game day. why? >> polling for a caucus is much more difficult than polling for a primary or general election. this is not a case where people twiewct polls and cast their ballots. they will be in a room for a couple of hours and hear speeches from surrogates. all of those people in the rooms could still be persuaded, about half tell us they are open to hearing new pitches. so if you are looking for precision, that's not the right way to look at it. our poll and most other polls show mitt romney with a 2-point lead over ron paul. mitt romney should finish near the top but don't be surprised

if he finishes second. that battle for third, fourth and fifth between santorum, perry and gingrich co-which could have an impact going forward, but the polls don't give us clear guidance as to who's going to come out on top. megyn: scott, last time around the polls did great. they predicted huckabee would win and he did. >> four of the last 7 polls showed mike huckabee would win. three showed mitt romney would come out on top. one said hillary clinton would win, one said john edwards would win and two said barack obama would come out on top. the huckabee numbers and four years earlier john kerry's numbers were greater than we have seen. we are talking about small differences. we show mitt romney at 23%, ron paul at 22%. i don't have a great deal of confidence saying mitt romney will be the winner.

but he has been ahead in our last three polls. he is the favorite but he could slip to second place. megyn: chris, let's talk weather ugliness we have seen between gingrich and romney. gingrich striking a different tone this morning than we have heard from him so far. >> it is a sharper tone. it's a harder line from gingrich. it's very serious business. the sneaker now understands that the attacks on him that have come not just from romney but also from ron paul are a mortal danger to his candidacy. while they are trying to be laid back about the idea they are not likely to win this and their managing expectations about iowa. if he comes out of here damaged goods his chances to rally in south carolina will be substantially diminished. so he has to make a stand now. megyn: bill kristol was saying he thinks this race between

perry and gingrich will be an interesting run to watch. who can emerge from that. can both move on from this if they come in third, fourth, fifth respectively. >> i don't think so. i think if perry -- whoever finishes behind other. perry triumphs over gingrich and gets that third, spot. he can move on and say he rebowrnd and has momentum. but gingrich who used to be at the top of the polls, he was so far in front. if he ends up all the way down in place and can't top perry, he's going to have a hard argument to make in south carolina. that is the primary within the primary for who is the broadly palatable, the mainstream conservative that can unite the right and those guys are fighting it out. megyn: historically .we see

somebody like gingrich and perry surge, fall, and then surge again and go on to win the nomination? >> no, this has been a very unusual process. the fact that anybody is talking about making a comeback at this point to stay viable is unusual. there is still that battle, who is going to be the primarily challenger to mitt romney down the road. megyn: guys, thank you so much. an increasingly confident mitt romney saying he's ready for anything in this campaign and newt gingrich is not pulling any punches. speaker begin grimp called mitt romney a liar. listen. >> he's not telling the american people the truth it's like his pretense he's a conservative. i think he ought to be honest with the american people and try to win as the real mitt romney not a poll-driven version of talking points and i think he on

the to be candid. i don't think he's being candid. megyn: what is governor romney's response to that. i'll ask him when he joins me live right here in just a few minutes. now to the surging rick santorum. the gop presidential candidate getting ready to address the des moines assembly. he says his campaign has a lot of enthusiasm and momentum. his poll numbers in the hawkeye state also skyrocketing with his support among iowa voters more than quad ruinling:for than quadrupling. ron paul also on a final campaign push. addressing a caucus assembly in west des moines as he tries to sway the undecided. steve brown is live in west des moines. >> reporter: ron paul got a good reception from the young

folks and seniors at the rock the caucus event. he's puzzled about the attraction that younger adults have towards his campaign. but his campaign is certain that it's going to be a rather sizable factor. they believe they have grown the universe of caucus votes which is a very difficult thing to do. only two campaigns can lay claim to it. pat robertson in '88, pat robertson in 2008. they told hose college age students that are ron paul fans, go home and caucus there locally. that could have a bigger impact. the santorum folks trying to ride that tide of momentum. a lot of his events have packed houses. his campaign is working the phones and hoping for organic self-started do it yourself sort of grassroots, phone banking going on. they are getting a lot of help from a lot of different groups.

but they are hoping that happens, too. the romney folks, heads down, making phone calls. that's been the line for them the entire time this year -- the past year. may a began? megyn: steve brown, thank you. in three minutes governor mitt romney joins me live and responds to the accusations from the former speaker of the house this morning. 20 minutes from now we'll get a challenge to -- we'll get a chance to challenge newt gingrich as well. it was the 1980s gop primary race. ronald reagan lost to george h.w. bush in iowa, but came back to wind all. it may have hinged on a single simple moment. we'll ask ronald reagan's son what lessons today's candidates should take from his father's 1980 campaign. >> i am paying for this

microphone. [applause]

megyn: this is how they do it. one venue at a time. take a look at crowds. you will see young people, you will see old people. mitt romney told me to matter how he does in iowa, the national trail will be very, very good to him. i escaped the capital long enough to check out a romney rally. mitt romney has been criticized by some conservatives as being too moderate. the former governor of massachusetts and presidential candidate mitt romney. good to see you. you seemed energize boulevard that crowd. >> we have had terrific events across iowa the past couple days and great crowds, great enthusiasm. this is a fun part of the

american experience. megyn: the negative tones sometimes these campaign can take. this morning speaker gingrich who said he's running a positive campaign seeped to take it gloves off when he went on national television and called you a liar and explained that charge this way. i want to play you some of the sound bites. >> he's not telling the american people the truth. like his pretense that he's a conservative. i think he ought to be honest with the american people and not try to win as the real mitt romney. i think he ought to be candid. i don't think he's being candid. melling * in 2002 when you were. megyn: in 2002 when you were running for president, you said your views from progressive. does newt gingrich have a point?

>> i rob for president four years ago and along with mike huckabee i was the conservative alternative to john mccain and i had the occasion to write a book about my views for the country. if people want to look way stand for look at my record as a governor. we cut taxes 19 times. i authorized our state police to enforce immigration laws. we had english immersion i pushed for in our schools. i have got a conservative record. i understand the speaker is apparently angry. i wish him well and calista. we have a long road ahead and hopefully we'll be able to connect with the american people for the support me need. megyn: some conservatives will hear that that you say i'm not a partisan republic cab, i'm moderate, my views are progressive. they don't want to hear that about the nominee. >> that was 10 years ago and i'm

more conservative than i was 10 years ago. having served as governor, having lived my life the last 10 years i have become a little more conservative over time and that's why i don't think people are surprised that in the 2008 campaign i stood for what we called the threat legs of the con very stool. social, economic and foreign policy conservativism. i still have those same views today. i have been tested time and time again and i'm proud of that position. megyn: you say he, age bring, why do you think he's angry? >> i don't know. i'm not going to psycho analyze the speaker. you see the president trying to turn america into a welfare state. mayor case an opportunity nation. people want to talk bin side baseball and process, that's

their right, by want to talk about my vision for the country. megyn: he seems ticked off about the super pac ads. they have been running attack ads against gingrich. he seems upset. he says you refuse to tell the truth about your super pac which is running these ads. he says it's your pack, run by your staff, fund by your friends called restore our future pac. it includes your 2008 political director, your former chief counsel and former media guy. so does speaker gingrich have a point that it's your pac and you should put a stop to the negative ads or call for them back off. >> as you probably understand the law -- i have no disagreement about the people who formed this pac are people

support me and some of whom worked for me in prior campaigns. they want me to win. under the law they can establish these entities and run ads. but one thing i can't do is coordinate with them when they run ads. the one thing i can do is make sure they are accurate. if they do something that's wrong or inaccurate shame on them. it makes no sense. this is a campaign you need broad shoulders. barack obama will have a billion dollars -- the speaker has been going after me from the very beginning of this campaign with attacks on me day in and day out. you have got to be able to live with all that comes as part of a political campaign. megyn: he has been complaining a fair amount about these ads. do you think he's thin skinned? >> i thought the best ads came from ron paul. the ads that came from the ron paul campaign were very effective in making it tough on the speaker. and also there were some that

came from rick perry that went after the speaker and after me, by the way and sometimes jon huntsman attacking me. to say let's go back to the rules of playing bridge in politics. if you go back into the days of jefferson-adams, we haven't had that. i insist the ads be honest and those groups i can't control, i hope think do the right thing and follow rules of integrity and honesty. megyn: four years ago you campaigned in iowa, you didn't win the nomination. what changed? >> i think there is a greater recognition that the president is taking us on a dangerous path, dangerous economically, fiscally and america has to take a new direction. i'm seeing in audiences greater energy finding a nominee who can beat barack obama and get america back on track. last time we didn't know where we wereheaded. now we have an incumbents and we

see how bad it's been. megyn: one of the issues raised but all the time, questioning whether you are conservative. can the gop count on you to be a con there are the white house. what i want to ask you business something you and i discussed at last fox news debate. when you were governor of massachusetts, 2/3 of the candidates that you nominated for the open vacancies on the bench were either democrats or independents. and you explained that's because they had to get through the governor's council and they are all democrats. you can't be picking someone from the far right hoping they will get through the governor's conference. but you told the boston globe back in '05 that you have never given any weight whether someone could make it through the governor's council when you were choosing a judicial nominee. >> i will be happy to see what

the entire quote is. the people we put forward were the people we thought were the right peek to be selected. we recognized and spoke with them a great deal that they wanted to see a group of people that represented different parties. they wanted to take people from the republican side, as well as i nominated people from the democratic side. but they had the final choice. they got to say yes orno, and we understood to have toes people appointed they had to have people from all the parties. my test was this. my test for the people i nominated for judges was would they follow the law or would they depart from the law and do what necessity thought best. in each case i tried to select people who i believed would follow the law and i favored people who were prosecutors. i wanted people who worked in the prosecutors' office. that makes a real difference. megyn: what do you do if you don't get the nomination. how hard a day is this when you think of all the work you put

into it you mean go back to my family, home and life. that's great. it's wonderful to live in america. i'm putting myself on the line because i think i can help get america on track. i think america needs someone who has not spent their life in washington to lead the country. if we have another president who has no experience, you can choose from this stage. but if you want someone who has spent their life in the real world, i'm that guy. megyn: as far as what speaker gingrich said, we'll have a chance to speak with him live in 10 minutes and i'll ask him about the seeming change in his tone in particular when it comes to governor romney. michael reagan on his father's 1980 campaign and the lessons for iowa today. we are back in 3 minutes. are you receiving a payout from a legal settlement

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megyn: back in 1980 ronald reagan lost the iowa caucuses to george h.w. bush. but he managed to win by a large margin. some of the credit goes to this famous moment at start of the debate in new hampshire. >> i i am paying for this microphone. [applause] megyn: what lessons should the

2012 candidates take from ronald reagan. joining me is michael reagan. can you hear me? i'm having trouble hearing right now. >> i hear you fine, megyn. megyn: i can't hear him. this will be an interesting interview. let me try it like this. why don't you tell the viewers about how your father took a loss in iowa, had that moment in new hampshire and turned it into the presidency of the united states. >> black those days his campaign staff didn't think you need to be in iowa. my father learned that he had to go back to the people to become who he was. when he went to new hampshire he never gave up. george bush went home for the weekend. my dad stayed in new hampshire over the weekend just prior to the primariesen ultimately won it. but that moment in time when he

said mr. green, i paid for this microphone and plan to use it payment new story of that campaign in new hampshire in 1980. george bush from that point was never able to regain. maureen my sister and i said thank god our father got angry and upset. we in our whole lives had never seen him mad and he finally got mad. megyn: i just heard the last bit of that. let me ask you this. who do you think is best positioned to have such a moment. do you see a natural leader, somebody who might have a breakout moment like that? part of it is personality and americans believing he could be our guy, or she could be our gal to take us through the rough moments and show leadership and take the bull by the horns or the microphones by the stems.

>> i think that's what people are waiting for. that breakout moment to convince them this is the guy or gal who will take us all the way to washington, d.c. in 2012. they haven't seen that yet. rick perry stumbled coming out of the gate. but every time he seems to regain row men actual he stumbles again. you have speaker gingrich who is still acting too much like the professor without the passion. you have mitt romne who is looking to do well but he never gets over that 25 mark and i think it's because he hasn't learned how to own the room yet. ronald reagan owned the room when he walked in. he made sure the person he was talking to was the most important person in his life at that moment. if mitt romney learns that he will go a long ways to win the nomination process.

rick santorum is making a great comeback. but will it last? the big fight for the republicans or conservatives will be in south carolina. that's the first winner take all primary. all the delegates, then on to florida which is also a winner take all. the conservatives will meet in south carolina. whoever comes out of there the winner will go on to fight mitt romney the rest of the way. megyn: people said bill clinton had that gift your dad had, making you feel like you are the most important person in the room when he was talking to you. santorum has been dismissed by a lot of the chattering classes. he's too angry. he seems angry. even newt gingrich has been criticized as seeming angry at times, and not in a favorable way. is anger a tool that can be used or is it a liability? >> it's a good tool that can be

used in the right way. new hampshire 198 out was the right way. my father did pay for that microphone and they tried to shut it down. he showed leadership. but he was bringing everybody together. that was suppose to be a two-person debate between ronald reagan and george bush. it became a debate he invited everybody to. so he was inclusive an was standing up for everybody. so he had the right to be angry. right now you are right. the world is look at anger too much in washington, d.c. they don't want to see ager in the wrong direction. they want to see anger in the right direction. they are done with the fighting, they want to get things fixed and move forward. that person that uplifts america to make us feel bet were ourselves. that person will go a long way towards winning it all. megyn: michael reagan, thank you, sir.

we'll speak with one of governor romney's chief rivals, newt gingrich. after three weeks of dismissive remarks from new york media times. the folks in iowa have a message for the people who look down on the hawkeye state. >> i guess that's why we are democratic. how do you like him now? did your state legalize gay marriage before us? probably not.

megyn: a lot of sparring on the campaign trail in the final hours before tonight's iowa caucuses. date has been fierce between mitt romney and newt gingrich. here is how governor romney responded a few moments ago. >> this is a campaign where you knead to have broad shoulders.

if you can't stand the heat of this little kitchen, wait until the helms kitchen coming from barack obama. he will have a billion dollars. the speaker has been going after me from the beginning of this campaign with attacks on me day in and day out. you have got to be able to live with all that comes as part of a political campaign. megyn: joining me now live from burlington, iowa. mr. speaker, i want to give you a chance to respond to what governor romney said about you need broad shoulders or some might say a thicker skin. >> it's funny he would say that. when i was working with ronald reagan to try to defeat the soviet empire and launch the economy you was an independent. when i was working with george bush he was working for paul saun gurks s. i think which us has student to

the left, which of us have been in washington fighting tax increases, i'm happy to compare shoulders with governor romney. i think my record of being a solid conservative versus his record of being a massachusetts moderate will start out just fine. megyn: can you maybe the argument that they are actually good because they get all the baggage out in the nomination process, then the gop voters know what they are getting and what the likely attacks will be from whoever the nominee is from barack obama. >> well, if they are not necessarily bad if you are accurate. i never complained about the parts of the ads that are accurate. but there have been many ads that are just plain lies. they are fault. at a time when america is in trouble it's bad for us to be involved in negative, vicious politics when we what we have to

have is a conversation about what are going to do to save the country. washington is failing on a bipartisan basis. the american people know washington is failing and i any there is a premium on talking in a positive way about jobs and economic growths, to bring in people like art laffer to develop economic growths and jobs. i'm going to continue to be positive. all of my ads have been positive because i think the american people deserve somebody who is willing to focus on solving problems, not just attack their competitors. megyn: you say you will stay positive but this morning you gave an interview in which you called governor romney a liar. is that positive? >> i was asked a specific question, megyn. the question was did i think he wasn't telling the truth and i told the truth. i'm not going to run ads. i'm not going to go out and show romney with a growing nose like

pinocchio, even though one of his ads got a 4 pinocchio rating from "the washington post" which would justify a pretty long nose if you wanted to play that game. but if somebody asked me straight from my face do i think governor romney is going to tell the truth, i will say, no, i don't think he has been telling the truth. megyn: it seems to be in terms of your race here in iowa, it's coming down between you, mr. perry, governor perry and senator santorum. senator saber to up seems to be taking the gloves off and before perry talking about how you are the earmark king, other king of all earmarks. how do you respond? >> i think perry said that about santorum. it illustrates what a mess it is. my response is to say grow up. governor perry did a lot of

stuff that involved ear narkts state of texas. ron paul got earmarks. all this stuff is junk. the fact is what is his solution for jobs in america. what is his solution to the iranian nuclear weapon. what is his solution for getting washington back on track. i think america wants something bigger than whose consultants can write the most clever ads. when we had the debates i became the front runner. now we'll have to work our way back into that position and i'm confident we'll do that. as the "wall street journal" said saturday, i have an economic plan that's the most aggressive pro jobs plan much anybody. they described romney's plan as so timid it resembled obama. i think 24579 the contrast -- which kinds of economic plan do you want? that's what this campaign ought to be about. big choices. not junk 30-second commercials. megyn: it was rick perry who

said santorum is a parker's best friend and you are the granted daddy of all earmarks. you mentioned the attack ads are to blame for your fall. you have fallen down a fair amount in the past couple weeks. you cite the millions of dollars in attack ads. governor romney pointed out in defense of that that these ads have not been unleashed against you in new hampshire but you are also falling there and in other states where the barrage has not taken place. how would you respond? >> first of all, every one of these attack ads has shine on cable news everywhere in the country. everywhere people have talked about the impact of these ads in iowa. if you talk to the average iowan who has gotten attack mail in their mail boxes, and phone

calls. they are disgusted and they think it, a disservice to iowa to have all of these paid consultant send out all this negative stuff. i'm happy campaigning as a good citizen trying to talk about positive ideas and i'm looking forward to tonight because i think we may will a surprisingly good result as iowans look around and realized who has been running the negative stuff. we had a great tour in our bus and huge telephone town halls. we had 18,000 people yesterday, 22,000 saturday. there was one more today. i'm happy to stay positive and we'll see whether we can smile our way and talk our way past all this negativity. megyn: speaker gingrich, thank you for being here. we'll be watching tonight. >> thank you. megyn: what many it like for the presidential campaigns in caucus.

i asked mitt romney, are you nervous? he said no, i have been through this before. my whole life is in politics. the architects of george bush's win, karl rove will give us his take on that next. [ male announcer ] cranberry juice? wake up! ♪ that's good morning, veggie style. hmmm [ male announcer ] for half the calories -- plus veggie nutrition. could've had a v8. this is mary... who has a million things to pick up each nth on top of her prescriptions. so she was thrilled that her walgreens pharmacist recommended a 3-month supply

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represents for your best rates. give your family the security it needs at a price you can afford. call this number or go to selectquote dot com. selectquote. we shop. you save. megyn: a flashback to january 24, 2000. the winner of the iowa caucuses was the man who won the presidency, george w. bush. and here is what he had to say after his big victory in iowa. >> tonight's victory is the victory of a message that is conservative and is compassionate. a message that seeks to unite our country and offers hope to everyone who is lucky enough to be an american. megyn: that was the beginning of it all for the man who would become our president.

former senior visor to george w. bush and fox news contributor karl rove joins. you were part of the caucus process. we want to talk about what it was like and what it will be like tonight and today for these candidates and these campaigns that have expended so much time, money and effort on the ground in iowa. what are they going through today? >> they are making every effort to insure a maximum turnouts. each one of these caucuses there is somebody representing every candidate who gets up and gives a speech and those speeches do have an impact. some people go into the caucuses undecided and they listen to a neighbor friend and make up their mind right then and there. so you are doing everything you can to have your people caucus. you are making sure people know how the rules go. you don't want these things to drag on forever because people say i have got to go home to the

babysitter or i have got an early day tomorrow. or i have got homework to do. as a result you start to lose people. so you you have to have people trained and know what the rules are to make certain it moves along as expeditiously as possible. then literally you need know who is suppose to be in that precinct. there are 1,740 of those and you have to have somebody checking out who is expected to be in that one particular meeting. if they aren't there -- if somebody isn't there you have got to drag them there somehow or another. megyn: that's what they talk about, organization and ground game. by all accounts rick santorum lacks it. he doesn't have the organization. but he's surging here. can you win if you don't have all of those ducks in a row? >> i think one thing he has done is he has spent a year and visited every one of the 99

counties. he's the first candidate to so visit every counties. he put in place a volunteer network of people. one of the things he has got is a well organized meticulously cataloged list of people in every part of the state who met him and are for him. he helps to have a big staff. we had a big staff in 2000, but it was even more important to have a group of volunteers and santorum has got them. there have been six polls conducted since christmas day, and in five of the six, mitt romney leads and one of the six, ron paul leads, and in all six polls rick santorum is in third place. that's a good sign he's going to be a win, place or show, and there is a good sense there is momentum for him at the end. enough to put him in first place, i do it, but he will do well. megyn: how do the candidates

learn of the results tonight? do they watch them on tv? >> they do. but in the big counties, in des moines and suburban counties to the west it, you have people in there reporting results. and you have sort of markers. how much do i need to get in polk county out of these big precincts in order to win. megyn: they follow it much more closely than the viewers at home. what happens tomorrow? there will be losers. they talk about iowa has not so much making winners as identifying losers. >> the general theory is there are three tickets out of iowa, win, place or show. wirs, second and third. with the group we have today, and the change nature of the caucuses, proportion at votes in the primaries next week through

february and into march. my suspicion is we'll have four or five tickets out of the state. if you are not first, second or third, you have something in your background or your campaign that allows you to continue on to ham or south carolina. if you are newt gingrich and you come in fourth or 50s, the fact that you are -- come in fourth or fifth. if you are rick perry and you come in 4th or 5th, how much have you raised from your fellow texans to allow you to run ads in new hampshire. in iowa the guy who has run more television ads is rick perry followed byrumy with $4.4 million and ron paul with 2.2 million and speaker gingrich

with $1 million. that's from the campaign itself and the super pac that supported the candidate. megyn: that explains the wallpaper on the tv. it will be an interesting night. we look forward to hearing you as parts of our special coverage this evening and to all of our viewers who will tune in tonight. karl rove, thank you, sir. >> it will be a heck of a night. megyn: sure is. :

megyn: the weather could make a big difference for the gop candidates in tonight's caucuses. meteorologist janice dean is live in the weather center with what folks can expect. >> it will be downright balmy. for much of the state it's been

very, very cold. i hope you are dressing properly, young lady, you have got a cold there. you have got your bare sleeves. i shope between commercial breaks somebody is giving you a blankey. megyn: i'm inside now. >> the temperatures above 30 degree. that's good. so 30s for the most part. look at sioux city. 34 degrees. 26 in des moines. no reason not get out and vote. there will be no storms. bundle up, miss megyn. megyn: that's what nana says, though she worries more about me eating. then she says her rosary. god bless, nan.

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>>megyn: as the world focuses attention on iowa a public tv host creates a slick new in your face ad over myths on iowa. >> and farmers, you say, are farmers hillbillies? sit down, one iowa farmer makes $155 a year. you think farming is easy? >> iowans have been so good to the foes here as we set up in preparation for the big night and this is it. we would love you to tune in, fox news is the home base for up-to-the-minute newwi