door. >> reporter: the same situation happening in trustville, bam r-frplt you go up north to arkansas. we don't know if these were

tornadoes. it certainly appears this was tornadic activity. we don't know the category. when we get more pictures in and more information about the strength of the storm, megyn we will get back to you. these pictures as they come in. remember, middle of the night. thethere are still people working their way out towards some of the outlying areas. as we get more information on the storms we'll bring them to you throughout the next two hours, megyn. megyn: your heart goes out to them. look at those pictures. trace, thank you. this deadly storm has already swept through a large part of the south, numerous flood warnings still in effect. meteorologist maria molina is in the fox weather center with the latest on where the storm is headed next. we listen to you, we listen to you forecast it and tell us what happened but nothing tells the story like those pictures. >> reporter: really. it's really unfortunate to see again the same state that was hit very hard last time during the springtime get hit again with more tornadic activity. the storm system still has the potential to drop down more

tornadoes as we head through the afternoon hours. i want to point out on the back side of of the system there is actually a secondary line of showers and some isolated thunderstorms that just fired up across western parts of ohio. we are not looking at a tornadic threat out here, no tornadoes are expected, some gusty winds will be possible. and the winds could bring down trees. we'll keep you posted on that. currently no warnings with that line of storms. at we head into georgia, that is where we have the main severe weather threat with the tornado watch in effect across western parts of the state south of atlanta in effect until 4:00pm eastern time. what a tornado watch means is conditions ever favorable for some of the thunderstorms to develop that could produce tornado touchdowns as well as the gusty winds. as you see the images, the watches and warnings it's very important that you take them very seriously, and as we head into tomorrow unfortunately we have another risk for severe weather although i don't think it's going to be as bad as what we saw today. central and southern texas, heeds up you could be looking at large hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tore.

megyn here is a closer look at some of the reports we got today. 170 reported, more than 20 unconfirmed tornadoes from car san saw into alabama. it's very unusual to see this kind of activity during the month of january. megyn: we call them unconfirmed tornadoes. the picture tells the story. the folks there they don't care what you call it, it's devastation. maria thank you so much. new questions about about the president's state of the union address and how he will use it to frame his re-election campaign. president obama set to address the nation tomorrow night with a report on the country, and his policy agenda for the rest of the year. analysts claim that is only a piece of it, however and we could instead be seeing a campaign speech on why the president believes he deserves a second term. here is a preview released by the white house. >> i talked a lot about this is a make-or-break moment for the middle class, and folks trying

to work their way into the middle class. because we can go in two directions, one is towards less opportunity and less fairness, or we can fight for where i think we nod need to go, building an economy that works for everyone, not just a wealthy few. megyn: chris stirewalt is our fox news digital politics editor and host of power play on foxnews.com. chris, now we are being told that campaign operatives for the president, david axelrod among others are and have been heavily involved in the drafting, crafting of this speech. our political folks are telling us that is unusual, technically. >> reporter: it's very unusual. if you think about it megyn it's something that the administration went to great pains to try to avoid that appearance by sort of e exiling the campaign to chicago. you keep the campaign close at hand, cross the river in virginia or here in washington so what you can do is being in

constant consultation with those folks. the obama administration -- president obama thought the optics would be bad and shipped axelrod and the gang out to chicago to create this distance. for them to be part of the process of crafting this speech is a little unusual, and obviously it's not the kind of visual that the president wants. megyn: basically to be having the address telling us of the state of the union coming from a campaign re-election team. >> reporter: right. megyn: let me ask you this. chris, they may be letting us know that, it seems that our chief white house correspondented henry was given the heads up that that's how it would go this weekend. is it unusual for this to actually happen? maybe other administrations didn't tell us that this was happening. isn't the state of the union in a re-election year always a little political? >> reporter: more than a little. and so that isn't outside of the -- you would expect to see that the themes in the campaign would echo the themes in the state of the union address, that those things would sync up.

bill clinton in a somewhat similar position in 1996 did that, the era of big government is over an emphasized his move to the middle, and how he had done that. it blurs the line for a white house that likes to emphasize the president is barely campaigning, these are not campaign events, these things are very important, he's busy governing, it does sort of come through. megyn: chris stirewalt, thank you, sir. >> reporter: you bet. megyn: see you soon. you can wave the state of the union address on the fox news channel, tomorrow night, 9:00pm eastern time. one of america's most notorious would be assassins is inching closer to freedom n. a hearing underway right now the government is fighting to keep john hinkley jr. locked up in a mental hospital. he has been there since his attempt on president ronald reagan's life 30 years ago. most people who were alive at the time can remember this sce

scene. >> president reagan. [sound of gunfire ]. >> stay low. stay down. megyn: now his doctors say he is harmless. khaoeufp harmless. catherine herridge is live outside the court. >> reporter: i was sitting in the courtroom this morning about 15 yards from john hinkley. he sat there motionless, he did not yo utter a word, almost hunched over as he listened to the testimony. this morning has really focused on the testimony of a secret service agent. talking about an incident on october 16th of last year in williamsburg, virginia at a barnes & noble bookstore. the agent testified that they still do overt and covert surveillance of john hinkley. on that day they saw hinkley go into the book se store and the agent testified that he saw hinkley become fixated on a

middle shelf in the american history section. after he went to the movie money ball the agent sent back and he took pictures with his camera phone and he said the titles on the shelf made him feel extremely uncomfortable. he testified today that the titles included, politics, things about the air traffic controllers, but specifically a title called the president and the assassin. what is key here is that there was a second episode last year in july where once again hinkley was at a pw-rpbs and noble bookstore and he became focused or fixated begin on a title on president reagan and the attempted assassination. what the prosecution is trying to show here is a pattern to suggest that hinkley is still dangerous. the defense has cross-examined the secret service agent to show that hinkley never picked up the book, never read the book and certainly never purchased the book and showed no violent acts in that bookstore. megyn: very interesting. catherine, thanks so much. >> reporter: you're welcome. megyn: how does the reagan family feel about all of this? coming up michael reagan,

president reagan's son will join me live. he has a fascinating story about what president reagan said to him in his hospital room the day after he was shot by hinkley. and he'll have details as well on what he calls some problems with john hinkley's request to travel. that is about an hour from right now. well catholics around the country are outraged, claiming the obama administration is ignoring their religious beliefs. bill donahue of the catholic league joins us live in three minutes on the new controversy over the healthcare law and birth control sterilization and in some cases abortion pill coverage. and new evidence behind alabama's big unemployment drop. is the state's immigration law, that tough new law actually pushing unemployment numbers down? we've got new numbers to show you. and how about this one, a sarcastic vending machine that makes fat jokes. what? could this be a new weapon in the battle of the bulge and how can i get one for my kitchen.

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megyn: there is growing backlash today, a new twist over the president always healthcare law and its requirement that most employers provide no cost contraceptive coverage. that would include not just the birth control bill but the morning after bill, sterilizations and so on. catholics nationwide are up in arms saying this regulation is an attack on religion. last friday, just last friday i should say the administration said it would give a one-year extension to some nonprofit groups on religious grounds. after that, however it will require catholic hospitals among other places to provide the

contra september tiff benefits. roman catholic bishops argue that is a violation of their religious liberty. timothy dolan in new york says the extension is president obama basically saying quote we have a year to figure out how to violate our consciences. bill donahue joins me live. archbishop dolan is very unhappy about this. he had a meeting with the president personally. before we get to that meeting, tell us what it is, it's now catholic colleges, catholic institutions, catholic hospitals are going to have to do what? >> starting in august the 1st of 2013 they are giving us a one-year reprieve all catholic nonprofits have to provide for continue september tiff, including abortion inducing drugs and sterile liization services, and there is no co-pay or deductible allowed. you're being required to do this. now what angers us about this is several things. in 2009 president obama gave the commencement address at the university of notre dame, he

promised catholics i will respect con khupbs rights. when obamacare was first proposed a number of n u.n. s and priests went along with him against the bishops. they have now come to our side and say we are being double crossed. the bishop sat down with president obama and was assured that he would get conscience rights to be respected. now we find out that they are not. he's not only angering catholics on this thing, even "the washington post," not always an ally with the catholic church came out in in a splendis article saying you have to respect the religious beliefs. megyn: to force universities to pay for the birth control, terry o'neal came out and said, last year the u.s. catholic bishop peddled a version of religious freedom that would allow

organizations to withhold needed healthcare from woman, as if the organizations were people with ability to have a conscience. it goes onto praise the president for his decision. nancy pelosi also praising the president. >> see that kind of disparaging language, that kind of vitriol is actually working on our side, because a person who is caught in the middle on this issue is going to say listen to the way they speak about catholics. you're not just attack being the bishops. most people like "the washington post" are saying, go ahead and provide contraceptive services in most health plans if you want to do it voluntarily but for the federal government to come in and say after you say you're going to give it a religious exemption there aren't going to be any it looks like a bullying tactic. let them keep talking this way, it is an election year. megyn: the archbishop is complaining about the exception saying it's way too narrow. >> here is the exception, this is a catch-22, a hobson's choice

which means no choice. if you're a catholic university, hospital, a nonprofit organization and you service and hire only catholics then that is okay, you can get the exemption. one of the great things about the catholic church is the catholic with the small c, it means universal. we service people who are not catholic. we always have since the immigrants in this country going back hundreds of years ago. i used to work in a school in spanish harlem. most of the students were black and pro protestant. that kind of hobson's choice, that kind of a catch-22, i got you either way is something that rile angers me, in fact just talking to you about it right now just brings it back. i mean how much more insult can we take. megyn: it does make you wonder what would happen if a catholic hospital started to say no noncatholics allowed either in the applications to work here or

to be treated here. >> the lawsuits are going to fly. megyn: what are they going to choose? they will challenge this. >> sure. megyn: if they don't win the lawsuits or if the deadline comes before they are resolved as a practical matter could they refuse this and pay the fine that is required if you don't comply with -- >> i'm not going to speak for the bishops at this point. i don't know if they have a game plan. right now i can tell you one thing there will be lawsuits that will fly on this. what i don't understand is this from a political, practical matter why would you want to do this in an election year? megyn: these are very powerful groups as well. these are planned parenthood, groups that support women's reproductive rights. they want women and female college students at the universities to be able to get this access. >> everybody can afford to buy a cd, right? they can't afford to buy a condom? they are even admitting it costs $15. this is not about cost. there is nobody out in the street saying, oh my god where can i get my condom.

walk down in new york city and get it for free from mayor bloomberg. this is trying to stuff a secular agenda down the throat of the catholics. the supreme court said the obama administration was wrong. the obama administration tried to argue that religious entities couldn't hire and fire employees of their choice. even ruth bader ginsberg and saying r-r and others went along with this in a 9-0 decision. if you put this together, and the catholic church helping women and children as they always have, we happen to be pro-life. boy, this adds up to a big fist right in the face of catholics, and other people of faith. it's not just catholics. megyn: we should point out that the funding for this was passed by the congress as well. so it's not just the administration, it is congress, the republicans in the house as well supported this funding mechanism. >> there was one calf veriette, the final decision on this rests with health and human services. they said, we'll allow them to

make up the final decision. kathleen sebelius has not been in good standing in the catholic church for decades. megyn: a new development in alabama's fight against illegal immigration. there may be new evidence that a strict new law is helping boost the state unemployment rate. newt gingrich challenges president obama's vision for america. a preview of that debate five minutes away. in just minutes. now it's quicker and easier for you to start your business... protect your family... and launch your dreams. at legalzoom.com, we put the law on your side.

enforcement workers boozed up on the job all on the taxpayers dime. the state department of law enforcement say it actually allowed 15 employees to drink hef virginia low on the job so it could test the reliability of this new breathalyzer machine, the intoxilyzer 8,000. the workers blew into the

machine and had their blood drawn and sent to a lab to determine if the breathalyzer is just as reliable as the lab work. more than $200 was spent on jim beam, doritos and various mixers. why doritos? that makes no sense. do they affect your blood/alcohol content now? the experiments were conducted because judges in two counties were not sure of the reliability of the machine. seems the judges have not yet handed down a decision. there are bold new claims today in the fight over alabama's controversial new immigration law. the law was passed back in june and the employment rate in that state has improved every month since. supporters are crediting the new crackdown, opponents are saying, not so fast. trace gallagher has more live from l.a. >> reporter: the law passed in june, megyn. we really kind of started track being the unemployment numbers in alabama in the fall, in september, and sure enough the unemployment numbers were coming down, but then, again, so were the unemployment numbers going

down in the surrounding states. so there really wasn't enough evidence to pinpoint the alabama law as being a contributing factor. now you look at these numbers four months later and it really is significant. you have alabama that was at 9.8% in september, all the way down to 8.1%, a 1.7% decline, and you look at the surrounding states, they too have gone down but not nearly as significantly. the alabama law has been called the toughest in the country. it prohibits illegals for looking for jobs in alabama, requires employers tow use the federal e~verify, that is the database that checks immigration status of employees. it also imposes fines and possible loss of business licenses for businesses who do hire illegals. over the course of the past six months we have also seen a number of hispanic businesses in alabama close because they were protesting the alabama law. the governor there, robert bentley gave a statement saying

and i'm quoting here, i have to say that 2011 turned out to be a pretty good year in terms of reducing unemployment, but we still have work to do, and remember, parts of the alabama law were put on hold by a federal judge, other parts were allowed to go into effect. right now the feds are suing alabama, but it certainly appears over the past five, six or seven months that the numbers in alabama really have checked down at a faster rate than the surrounding states, megyn. megyn: trace, thank you. president obama and newt gingrich have found something they agree on. both calling 2012 a choice election. are they right? we'll debate. plus, the tapes don't lie but maybe this guy does, shocking new audio recordings between the captain of the shipwreck costa condoria and the port authority in the moments after the disaster in italy. moments of pure terror for jet passengers when their plane suddenly takes a violent nose

dive. >> the actual food cart went all the way up and hit the ceiling, made a huge hole. >> just brace it and okay we're going to go down. >> if you fall from there what are really the chances we are going to survive?

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megyn: well, you can add lying to the long list of accusations against the captain of that ship wrecked cruise liner off the coast of italy.

new audio recordings now surfacing just as divers recover the bodies of two more passengers. the death toll is now at 15 with at least 17 still missing. in newly-released tapes from the ship, the captain tells the port authority that the evacuation is going smoothly and that he is onboard. listen. >> translator: commander, one question, will everyone leave the ship, or will someone remain onboard? >> translator: i will stay here. megyn: and, of course, as we now know the captain was -- >> reporter: hey, megyn, this story just continues -- megyn,

you know, this story just continues, keeps getting better or worse depending on which way you look at it. the captain always seems to be in the middle of it. francesco she teen know is under -- schettino is under house arrest. he said these kind of drive-byes are a normal thing. no surprise there, perhaps, this is a guy who for the better part of an hour said the only problem was a backout. here at the scene there are plans to get the fuel out, that has been a major priority. it's taken some time to do that, but the ship has now settled down, and they can get started. it's a very long, complicated process. actually, they're talking about 28 working days, that is if weather cooperates. now, earlier today two bodies were recovered, both women. many of these bodies have not been identified yet, that is certainly one of the problems for all these relatives coming here looking for some, something, some sort of sign of hope at least a body to bring

home. and finally, megyn, shortly after this accident, it was ten days ago, a number of photos, a number of videos came up on the web showing various cruise ships which had been very close to coast, that this was sort of a normal thing to do. that raises some questions for the coast guard, also for the companies about why. megyn? megyn: greg burke, thank you. ♪ >> the america of the declaration of independence, the america of paychecks, the america of food stamps, the america of independence, the america of dependence. the america of strengthened foreign policy, the america of weakness in foreign policy. those two choices. megyn: that was newt gingrich 48 hours ago describing what he sees as the coming battle in the general election. a choice between independent america and dependent america, to mention just a few. brad blakeman is a former deputy assistant to president bush, and dick harpootlian is the south carolina democratic party chair.

gentlemen, he outlined it in rather stark terms. brad, how's that going to play? >> i think it's going to play very well because barack obama now has a record, he has to live by that record. of course, he wants to deflect and have a warfare on class, he also wants to continue to blame george bush, but i think the american people and the voters are smarter than that. if there was ever a contrast between what the republicans want to do with our economy and foreign policy and military, this is the election to do it, and i believe we have the right message unlike obama who seems to have a campaign slogan that it can be worse. megyn: you know, dick, some of these republican candidates, including newt gingrich, have not been too ginger about saying that they think barack obama's a socialist, and newt gingrich has said repeatedly he thinks he's a radical. you know, there is a question about how that will play if gingrich becomes the nominee. what are your thoughts? >> well, i mean, i just lived through ten days of some of the most, you know, it depends on whether you think it's

despicable or hard-hitting campaigns i've seen in 40 years in south carolina, and i'm telling you, for south carolina that's a heck of a thing to say. newt gingrich has only been tougher on mitt romney than he has on barack obama, and we woke up sunday morning, my comment was and my belief is that the evil of two lessers won. before they ever get to battering on barack obama, newt is clearly battering mitt romney for and i hear a number of establishment republicans say that mitt romney -- newt gingrich has crossed the line by attacking capitalism with his criticism of mitt romney and bain capital. so before we ever get to this choice, these choices between newt and barack or mitt and barack, we've got to make a choice between mitt and newt. and right now -- megyn: yeah, yeah. >> -- there's some gut punching going on. megyn: i want to ask you, brad, ann coulter was on "fox & friends" over the weekend, and she's not exactly liberal, you

may be aware. [laughter] and she's also not a newt gingrich supporter, she likes mitt romney. but listen to how she framed the issue about that message from newt. >> this is not going to be the electorate in the fall. i, um, am pretty sure we're going to get everyone who voted for mccain since no one voted for mccain because we liked mccain, it was to stop obama. we have those voters. now you have to get people who voted for obama. and having, you know, a candidate who goes out and called obama a kenyan colonialist or a socialist, that's not what you need, and at the same time with newt gingrich you get the name calling for the president very popular with the tea party crowd in south carolina, not so popular with independents. megyn: brad? >> well, look, everybody knows, and, dick, certainly you know this too, we saw a battle royale between obama and hillary clinton, and who turns out to be one of his most valued cabinet members? his worst adversary in the campaign. you have to tack right before you can tack to the middle and

win the nomination process. so it's no surprise that our candidates are running a little bit right of center. having said that, independents are the key to this election, and ann coulter is right. you can't talk out of both sides of your mouth. newt has been running dangerously close to a message that will not resonate in a general election. and i think he knows that. and he'll be scaling back his rhetoric as we get more into this race, for sure. megyn: all right. so let me challenge you since neither of you appear to be on newt's side. let me challenge you on this, dick, about newt gingrich's message. the stuff about barack obama's against american exceptionalism, we've heard this repeatedly about him because he's been given the opportunity to speak to it, and he said, you know, i believe in american exceptionalism same as the french believe in french exceptionalism and so on. and a lot of americans said, well, that's not believing in it at all. does he tap into something there that may be more palatable to the independents and those who

are not on the far left? >> well, i mean, i think newt's rhetoric is good. i think it's -- i can tell you, he won all but three of the 46 counties in south carolina by firing them up, and i think that's going to work well in the primary. but when you start attacking this president on foreign policy, a guy that brought osama bin laden to justice, killed osama bin laden, has gotten us out of iraq and done a lot and killed more al-qaeda leaders than bush did in eight years, we did in three, i think he runs dangerously close to starting to sound like ron paul in his isolationism. it's the rhetoric's fine, newt, and it's working on mitt because poor mitt, he just can't hit back. he's almost -- we ought to call the spca tonight if debate tonight goes like the last two here last week because somebody needs to call this thing. it's cruelty to dumb animals. merck merck oh, dick, you always have to get mean. why are you so mean on these

segments? i'll give you the last word, brad. >> i've had newt here for two weeks, how could i not be mean? >> newt could beat the pants off obama, you know it, and romney can as well. we have two front runners who are going to battle it out, just like hillary and obama had done, and at the end of the day republicans are going to rally around our nominee because we want to beat this president really bad and restore america. dick, don't worry, there's going to be a united republican party sooner rather than later. megyn: thank you both so much. >> sure. [laughter] megyn: thank you. well, coming up, there is a fight shaping up in massachusetts that could ultimately effect the whole country. should teachers be evaluated based on their performanceover seniority? which criteria would you want in evaluating your child? up next, how the answer effects students, parents and taxpayers. and john hinckley jr. tried to kill president reagan. is he now mentally stable to walk free for weeks at a time? coming up, michael reagan will join me with his take on hinkley

and a fascinating story about what president reagan said to him in his hospital room the day after he was shot. >> president reagan. [gunfire] [bleep] >> back up! when you have diabetes...

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a smart way to help manage hunger and diabetes. [ male announcer ] new glucerna hunger smart. i've tried it. but nothing helped me beat my back pain. then i tried salonpas. it's powerl relief that works at the site of pain and lasts up to 12 hours. salonpas. megyn: live look here at the white house where president obama will be welcoming the boston bruins or in the process, from the look of it. the six-time stanley cup champions recognized for their 2011 championship. the foundation has donated to various charities in six new england states. good for them. well, there is a fight shaping up in massachusetts that could ultimately effect the whole country. should teachers be evaluated based on performance or based on seniority? advocates have now pushed that question to the ballot in the state, and the teachers' union is not happy.

the vice president of legislative affairs for advocacy group students first, tim, you work with michelle rhee, and you have been working across this country, my understanding is, to try to get a merit-based approach as opposed to just who's been here the longest. this group in massachusetts is just the latest to object, this teachers' union, saying it really overstates the problem, it really fails to understand the unique dynamic between teachers and students, and you can't just do can a one size fits all, okay, you know, now we're going to say it's merit-based and leave it at that because teachers will be taken advantage of. >> right. well, and, megyn, thanks for having me on. um, yeah, their system that they advocate for is just one size fits all, and it's based on just how long you've been there with no consideration for how effective you are as a teacher. when you say that this fight is brewing in massachusetts, this fight is going on throughout the entire country. there were seven states last

year that moved this direction, so they eliminateed lifo as not a mandate based on where they're going to place teachers or keep them, and massachusetts tried to do this, they just didn't mandate the locals to do that. then when it got down to the local level, they said, well, we're not going to implement this. this is a battle that's been going on for the last 14, 16 months. seven states did it. this is going across the spectrum. it's not just republicans, it'sal democrats. you've got, you know, in connecticut and new york, um, governors that are taking this very seriously and pushing this because it's really just common sense. megyn: but here's what the teachers say. they say before, you know, they had unions and they were based on -- the promotions and tenure were based on seniority, it was very arbitrary. and so you'd have one principal who was ticked off at, you know, some young teacher for whatever personal reason, and they would get pushed around.

and what they say is that this new measure in massachusetts requires the school district to base it decisions on, quote, merit and ability which sounds good in theory, but they say those terms are not defined, and that winds up giving too much discretion to the administrators. >> yeah. and, you know, we really want to see that student achievement through a value-ed mod o el be at least 50% of the evaluation. we actually want to make the evaluation system more concrete so it is less arbitrary. so, you know, this -- we've had, we had a fellow that joined our association last year, was the teacher of the year for california, identified as the best teacher in the state of california, got let go under lifo. megyn: people don't know what that is. >> last-in, first-out, i apologize. the last teacher in is the first one out when it comes to layoffs no matter how good they are. you can have the best teacher in the world that's got five years'

seniority and one that's not meeting the grade, and when it's time for a layoff, the best teacher in the world is let go just because of seniority. and there's study after study. just a couple weeks ago columbia and harvard economists came out with this 20-year study that was over two and a half million kids, and it said the most critical thing for a child's education is an effective teacher, not demographics, not race, not income status. it was an effective teacher in the classroom. so we know, all of the studies will tell you, longevity studies, you've got to determine who the effective teachers are. so seniority doesn't determine who the best teachers are, so we have to have an evaluation system that takes into into consideration. megyn: here we see it in massachusetts which some may find as surprising. is in the future where we move to more merit-based evaluations of teachers and less, you know, last-in, first-out seniority type decisions? because it took a long time for the country to get to this place

where we don't base it on merit. are we now headed the other way? >> oh, absolutely, 100%. you saw seven states last year do it, even massachusetts. they did it, they just didn't mandate at the local level, and that's where these local groups said, hey, wait a minute, let's just change the law. the law was watered down, now you've got parents saying, look, let's make it a mandate. there are at least eight other states that have legislation introduced this year, so i think the wind is at our back, that that old thought process of seniority is the way we determine an effective teacher, i don't think anybody can argue that anymore. so as the world becomes more competitive, we're not just competing against neighboring school districts or states, it's a global marketplace. megyn: yeah. >> you've got to -- and study after study, megyn, just says you've got to have an effective teacher in the class room. that's the number one factor. so we have some partners in massachusetts, you know, students first is -- megyn: yeah, yeah, yeah, i gotta go. my apologies. i appreciate you being here and thank you for your thoughts.

>> thanks, megyn. megyn: stunning new polling out of florida ahead of tonight's big republican debate, plus some terrifying moment for passengers aboard a packed plane to miami which fell so fast, the drink cart nearly punch add hole in the ceiling. stay with us. [ male announcer ] drinking a smoothie with no vegetable nutrition? ♪ [ gong ] strawberry banana! [ male announcer ] for a smoothie with real fruit plus veggie nutrition new v8 v-fusion smoothie. could've had a v8. whose non-stop day starts with back pain... and a choice. take advil no and maybe up to four in a day. or choose aleve and two pills for a day free of pain. way to go, coach. ♪ or annuity over 10 or even 20 years? call imperial structured settlements. the experts at imperial can convert your long-term payout into a lump sum of cash today.

megyn: well, the super bowl is just two weeks away, and everybody's already talking about the commercials. some animal rights act visits are not laughing at this one. controversy already brewing over a new skecher's ad, going to the dogs. joining us live, fox business senior correspondent dennis kneale. hey, dennis. >> hey, megyn. last year it was the kim kardashian, the curvy tv tart who was the spokesman for skechers ads, but this year they're going with a bulldog, in fact, a french bulldog.

his name is mr. quigley. he's getting his own facebook and twitter accounts. he wears four red sneakers promoting a new line of skechers with some new technology, and then the upcoming super bowl ad this plucky puppy is pit inside a race against sleek, speedy greyhounds, and that is where this dog fight begins. a boston-based group has collected 50,000 signatures to purchase skechers -- pressure skechers into scrapping the commercial. protesters in los angeles descending on a skecher's store, and here's one of those protesters, jeannie tuttle, and what she has to say. >> we feel like there are a lot of creative ideas skechers could choose for their super bowl ad that don't glorify greyhound racing. greyhound racing isn't cute, and it's not funny. it's cruel and dangerous, and dogs are injured and killed by the thousands. >> skechers doggedly proceeding with the ad, a top executive says the protesters may make

mr. quigley more famous. >> this isn't a commercial about glamorizing greyhound racing. rather, it's about this little french bulldog who's a metaphor. so i don't think our sales will be adversely impacted. in fact, it's drawing more attention to our wonderful commercial, our wonderful technology. >> more controversy, more ads coming up, i'm sure. we've got two weeks until the super bowl, i'll be covering a lot of them, i hope. back to you. megyn: mr. quigley. thank you, dennis. >> all right. megyn: newt gingrich may be inching toward front runner status, but mitt romney remains the democrats' main target. the most powerful labor union just dropped a million bucks on this ad, why going after his surging rival? we'll take a look at that just ahead. plus, kids just wanting a bag of chips end up getting an earful from a taunting vending machine that makes jokes about your weight. that's coming up next hour. >> if you want someone to hold your hand, you should probably

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megyn: fox news alert on a major shift in the battle for the gop presidential nomination. welcome, i'm megyn kelly. brand-new rasmussen poll shows newt gingrich with a new lead in florida. check out the numbers. edging out mitt romney by nearly 10 points. two weeks ago romney had a 22-point lead. that gives begin gingrich the lead in the real clear politics. gop nomination is up 1.1 million

across the state. the republican party expects 2 million early voters including absentee ballots. larry sabato is the director for politics at center for politics in virginia. what a difference 10 days makes for newt gingrich. he was down double digits nearly 20 points in florida, now put it in perspective for us. >> we'll go biblical and say las -- lazarus had one rising and gingrich has had two. florida is his to lose. but we learned one thing and one thing only in this incredibly volatile race. that is the polls can change rapidly and a week is a long long time. obviously gingrich is in the cat

bird seat before we have two big debates and before the newly energized apparently mitt romney goes after newt, so we are told. melling * we saw -- megyn: we saw newt rise before. they credited that -- the gingrich campaign did, to the negative advertising against them in iowa. but what all see happened us the republican establishment came out in full force against gingrich. the beltway times apparently don't think much of him, larry. do we think it will happen with the same result? >> it will certainly happen again. i had an interesting conversation with a republican congressman yesterday who told me there was something close to and nick his ranks in the house.

they were worried they would have to share a ballot with newt gingrich, and based on current polling nationally and in many of the key states, gingrich is losing badly to obama. so they worry about coat tails. whether the establishment will hurt or help gingrich, in the sense that's republicans are anti-establishment this year in particular is something we'll have to watch. megyn: suddenly we are hearing this more and more of somebody else getting into this race on the gop side. >> i have been talking about this for a long time. the rules permit it this year. megyn: but we have been mocking you. but now it seems lining the establishment says wait, this really could make it happen. >> it could happen. i'm not saying it will and i don't have a candidate. i can't hear other people mentioning names of people who have actually said they will

run. there are great names to mention. mitch daniels and jeb bush. but they haven't indicated they are willing to do it. but it on takes one of them waking up one morning in february and say, oh, my god, mitt romney is not going to be the nominee, newt gingrich will lead us to disaster. i can be the guy on the white horse riding over the hill and i can save the republican party. then with money, organization and celebrity that person could be a contender. megyn: because it comes down to the number of delegates you need. at the end of the month we'll only have 5% of the delegates given out. >> exactly. and the filing deadlines permit you to file for a majority of the delegates even in early february. you can still enter and compete for a majority of the delegates. can you imagine the republican party saying no to a candidate who managed to win the last five or six big primaries?

probably they would throw rose petals in his or her direction. megyn: it would be interesting to see if the electorate would hold it against said person for not being in the arena. larry, thank you so much. >> thanks, megyn. megyn: we didn't mock you in a mean way. we mocked you in a good-natured way right to your face. he's laughing. back in 2008 there were 301,000 total absentee ballots cast in that state. as of today there have been 191,000 filed. the state republican party expects 400,000 absentee votes. the last day to request one is this friday. we'll of course provide special

coverage of the florida primaries beginning as the the:00 p.m. eastern tuesday evening, january 31. remember foxnews.com is your 24/7 source for coverage. check it out. foxnews.com. fox news alert. a new threat from an angry iran saying its military will definitely close the strait of hormuz if oil follows through on a new oil embargo against iran. the eu decided to take that action earlier today. iran saying essentially you better not. >> reporter: it is significant because the european union buys up about 20% of iran's oil. the decision came today at a meeting of european foreign ministers. that happened in brussels. not just cancelling contracts but freezing of iranian central

bank assets in europe as well. britain's foreign secretary described the sanctions as unpress don't. >> i think this shows the resolve of the european union on this issue and the international community. they are absolutely right to do this in view of iran's continued breach and refusal to come to meaningful negotiations on the nuclear program. >> reporter: this follows the latest round of sanctions from the united states. china and otherration countries don't -- and other asian countries don't seem to be interested in cutting back right now. the u.s. and now europe feel that they are close to making a nuclear bomb. iran claims it's peaceful. they describe the moves coming out of brussels i will logical and unfair.

now the threats came from two different iranian lawmakers about blocking the thing. we heard it before. tehran has backed away a little bit from that. sunday what we saw is the u.s.s. abraham lincoln, a huge aircraft carrier and five british and french ships pass through that strait untouched. megyn: we are continuing to follow a developing situation in the south after a line of severe storms and tornadoes pounds the the area overnight. look as the trail of destruction. the video out of the area is heartbreak. strong winds blowing out car windows, toppling trees. two people were killed in alabama. 100 people were hurt. you can seat massive system which stretches from the great lakes to the gulf coast.

we'll keep an eye on this and bring you the latest. some terrifying moments onboard an american airlines flight after the plane hit severe turbulence. it was so bad six flight attendants had to be hospitalized. >> i was sure i was going to die. >> the two flight attendants flew and landed on the hallway. megyn: that the one thing they say you should never fly in, severe turbulence. >> reporter: this is american flights 980. sometimes the's clear and you don't know it's coming. they were 2 hours into their 8-hour flight from brazil to miami. they say the was an air pocket. things were fine and suddenly the plane fell off. there are no such things as air pockets.

what they are are strong downward air current that cause the plane to suddenly and sometimes violently lose altitude. in this case the plane fellow fast so quickly it lifted the food cart as well. >> the actual food cart went all the way and hit the ceiling, made a huge hole. i thought, we are going to go down. i thought what are the chances we are going survive. >> reporter: six flight attendants were injured. one remains hospitalized. there was an emergency room doctor onboard who treated the victims. he told the pilot it was okay to keep going on. when the plane land in miami, they gave the pilot a standing ovation. we should note the plane, the 757 has been taken out of service to make sure the plane is okay. megyn: good for that pilot and the flight crew. that's what they get paid for, to get people through emergency

situations like that. we showed you the polls that have newt gingrich surging to the front in florida by a considerable margin. why is the obama reelection team so focused on mitt romney and not just his reelection team. we'll tell how took out a whole lots of ads against mitt. john hinkley is up for possible release. michael reagan not thrilled. he joins us live with an interesting story about what his father told him from his hospital bed. [ female announcer ] investing for yourself isn't some optional pursuit. a privilege for the ultra-wealthy. it's a necessity. i find investments with e-trade's top 5 lists. quickly. easily. i use pre-defined screeners and insightful trading ideas to dig deeper.

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his doctors say he should be a free man. he attempted to kill president reagan three months into his first term. hinkley telling psychiatrists he thought killing the president would win him attention from jody foster. the actress with home was obsessed. government lawyers are very concerned. michael reagan is the son our late president. he joins me now. thank you so much for being here. they want increased freedom for john hinkley. he has been getting more and more time on his own. he was found not guilty by reason of insanity and his doctors are trying to tell this court this is a significantly changed man and you say what? >> well, the interesting thing is because of john hinckley the

laws changed. he should remain in that ward for the rest of his life. he wants unsupervised visit. any other person would be in jail for the rest of their lives. so i say absolutely not. megyn: you have a story about the day after your father was shot. about what he said in the hospital room. >> everybody remember's my dad's sense of humor. he was no different with family than was with the public. i remember walking in the hospital room and my dad look up at me going, well, if you are ever going to get shot, don't wearing a new suit. yesterday i was wearing a new suit. >> i said thank you for the warning. he said that young man who shot me, i understand his parents are in the oil business.

i understand they live in denver. he says do you think they have any money? i said i don't know, i imagine they would have money, oil business, denver. he looks at me and said, well, do you think they would ever buy me a new suit? megyn: not only did it have a bullet hole in it, they had to cut it off of him. he famously forgave john hinckley jr. but that doesn't mean you would want them free. >> here was a man who lived the lord's prayer. my dad is shot, the first president to be shot and survive. but not long after that, pope john paul is also shot and survives. what did both of them do? both of them got down on their

knees and forgave their assassins before they even left the hospital room. later on my far it and john paul got together and what was it they could talk about. both of them felt god had saved them for a purpose? what was ultimately that purpose? the two of them ended up changing the world. megyn: it's one thing to forget and it's another to advocate for the freedom of a man who was shot. according to the testimony we heard from catherine herridge who has been inside the courtroom. secret service agents are talking about how they surveilled him and he's look at books on presidential assassinations including the one he attempted. it must give you pause. >> the secret service following this man, they are out there to

protect presidents of the united states. and they have never forgotten about gerald ford or ronald reagan. they want to make sure they can protect those of which they are asked to serve. if they are sitting there saying this is not a man you can trust out on his own, i'm going to the secret service on this and put him in that mental ward where he's been. he's having this visitation. he should be happy he's having visitations. but to be out on his own would be an absolute outrage and could send a terrible message to further people in the future who may want to go after a president or someone else. megyn: michael thank you for sharing with us. we appreciate it as always. the obama administration taking aim at the catholic church mandating they pay. not the church itself, but groups affiliated with the

church. mandating they pay for employees' birth control, sterilization and drugs that could lead to abortions. the constitutional controversy is on the docket in "kelly's court." plus a new vending machine with a serious attitude. teasing school kids with weight and food choices. >> if you eat those your stomach will go up. keep going, seriously, to be healthy back away from the vending machine. [ male announcer ] drinking a smoothie with no vegetable nutrition? ♪ [ gong ] strawberry banana! [ male announcer ] for a smoothie with real fruit plus veggie nutrition new v8 v-fusion smoothie. could've had a v8.

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megyn: an update on carefulling story out of washington. the republican to won the

election to fill the president's former seat in illinois in the senate has suffered a stroke. mark kirk checked himself into the hospital and doctors noticed his brain had begun to swell. in a news conference we were told things could have been far worse. >> fortunately the stroke was not on the left side of his brain in which case it would affect his ability to speak, understand and think. so we are hopeful that when we get through all of this recovery, all of those functions will be intact and he should be able to do very well. megyn: doctors say the stroke has impacted his left arm, and part of his face. his family is encouraged by his progress and they are confident the fighter in him will prevail. in the nation's capital tens of thousands of anti-abortion activists converging on the mall for the march for life.

the event marking the controversial supreme court decision roev. wade. >> reporter: the cold and rain are not dampening the spirits of these protesters. >> one of the reasons so many young people are involved in the protests is they realize they could have been abord. they know a lot of them have lost siblings or cousins. they have all lost potential classmates and potential spouses. >> reporter: a number of lawmakers took to the stage in support of today's march including john boehner who vowed he would continue to fight against taxpayer dollars being

used information abortion. young people who seem to be heavily represented at the march today. >> we held a law of life summit where we had student come together with pro-life leaders. the goal is to create objectives we can accomplish in a 6-month period. we have to keep this momentum going. the way we do that is through communication and social media. >> reporter: they say they acknowledge the work being done by these groups. they say the pro life movement is increasingly successful at the state level. 70 measures got on the ballot and were passed that changed the procedures or in some way limited abortion. they said the legislative battle is with the states. megyn: coming up, newt gingrich is surging.

so why did a big union just come out with a million dollar ad by targeting mitt romney. we'll jess gait that after the break. severe weather ripping across parts of the south. in three minutes the latest on the destruction and where the storms are heading now. >> one man we had to carry him out the door. it was really just pretty hectic it was cold, wet, raining everywhere. we were just trying make sure everybody was all right. that is. since 1894, ameriprise financial has been working hard for their clients' futures. never taking a bailout. helping generations achieve dreams. buy homes. put their kids through college. retire how they want to. ameriprise. the strength of america's largest financial planning company. the heart of 10,000 advisors working with you, one-to-one. together, for your future. ♪

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and go to vesicare.com for a free trial offer. megyn: we are track a couple developing stories including the supreme court refusing to hear arguments from a conservative watchdog group wanting to recuse justice aagan from hearing the healthcare overhaul. state funding for education is on the decline because of the slow recovery from the recession and the end of federal stimulus money. a powerful tornado leaving at least two dead and 100 injured in alabama. would you just look at these pictures? look at these pictures. folks waking up to the sound of winds shaking their homes early

this morning. some were completely wiped out. firefighters are going door to door to help the survivors. but it's the timing that left some in disbelief. >> reporter: 3:30 in the morning when this hit. the worst possible time. we have been on the phone trying to get better numbers. how many homes and neighborhood were destroyed. they simply do not know because right now the focus is on searching porpoise victims. but you look at the path of this tornado or what appears to be a tornado. i covered a lot of these things. oftentimes you see one house is standing the house next door has been torn down. you can see a wide swath of damage in every neighborhoods. there are reports of people still being trapped inside so what they are doing is going neighborhood to neighborhood, home to home and crawling on top of the wreckage and screaming out the names of the residents.

but these pictures give you a good idea of how powful these storms were. they swept tack not just alabama, but five other states and we are getting pictures back from the other states as well. listen to one of the residents of birmingham. >> we dodged a bullet, but obviously people will going through tough times right now. there are a lot of good kids, a lot of good people who live in this community that obviously -- it's just an outpouring of volunteering. i just -- it makes you feel good to know there is a lot of good in a lot of people. >> reporter: a lot of good in a lot of people. did hear what he said up top about dodging a bullet? only people in birmingham, alabama, would consider that dodging a bullet that storm that went through there killed 240 people. the death toll still stands at 2

in birmingham and the areas around birmingham. a 16-year-old girl and 83-year-old man, more than 100 injured at this point in time. but the authorities say if you look at the pictures clearly it appears the number of injured, the death toll could possibly rise. right now it's holding at 2 for the better part of 3 to 4 hours. megyn: newt gingrich is seeing a new surge in florida since his dominating victory in south carolina. a powerful union is going after mitt romney. listen here. >> prosecutors called it corporate greed run amok. the company was fined $100 million. but romney himself made a fortune. corporate greed. medicare fraud. sound familiar?

megyn: why are these public employee unions so afraid of mitt romney? okay, this is so interesting to me because it's not like the union bought this ad before newt's surge. they bought fit friday. his poll numbers were already off the charts. many people already assumed he was going to win or at least place second in south carolina. but they don't know after newt, they go after mitt romney, why? >> they are playing smart politics. they don't want romney to be the nominee. they would rather have gingrich be the nominee because he would have a challenge getting independents. have you heard a favorable possible cue -- have you ever

heard a possible skewer to use a favorable snaiment their opening statement? that's what they used. his frontal democrats haven't gone to the progressive left. they are going to look at the country from the economic standpoint, not from the pure party line politics. that's a big fear for them. hypocrites. they decry citizens united, the super pacs, then they do the same thing. what's important is before that decision because of how they get their donations they were not able to do that. now they are able to perform the very same way they attacked the right. megyn: bernard, do you believe they are worried about romney's appeal to the independent so they have to take him out. >> i think if they want to educate the florida voters about the record of mitt romney. he has a 30-year record of anti-work and anti-union. he enjoys firing people. his work at bain capital --

>> no, no, he didn't. that patently false. patently false. >> this is a guy who earns almost half a million dollars serving as a director for a company that went on to defraud the government. i think the florida voters have a responsibility to understand the truth. megyn: by that same reasoning, bernard, then why wouldn't the democrats want to go up against mitt romney more than up against newt? >> i think either way barack obama is extraordinarily well positioned. megyn: you are not answering my question. if that's true, they are going to do this class warfare narrative, don't they want to go up against him as opposed to newt gingrich? >> what it looks like is they are look at the general election, not the primarily structure. clearly there will be a problem. independents will decide the 2012 election regardless of

who's the nominee. who has the best chance? it will be mitt romney. decry free market capitalism -- by the way, bernard, you have got to be accurate on the regard. mr where talked about the ability to fire companies that don't provide good service. this is something the democrats will do. they will use half-truths rather than the facts. that's what ascme is doing here. megyn: this is one of the nation's largest unions. it's a million dollar ad buy. is there some reason this union would dislike mitt romney more than newt gingrich? >> mitt romney has a 30-year record in business. news * never served in business. he made most of this money

through government and has been a shill for freddie mac and fannie mae. >> stay within the facts. >> the union has to educate the voters against romney. why not get involved in this conversation. i will say this, what this entire debate shows, the 3 million newt's super pac spent, the $10 million romney's super pac spent. the citizens united decision was a fundamentally wrong decision. megyn: they seem to like it. >> why keep both hands tied behind your back if they are freed by a bad decision. >> even your argument here is hypocritical. you want to use the numbers. bain capital 70% success rate. wail street 60% means a venture capitalist is a successful firm.

free market enterprise. by the way, the very system that they decry is the one they need. screeny capitalism, the unions wants president obama in a second term because it's in their best interests. megyn: why wouldn't they save this $1 million for the general election contest? >> because a week ago mitt romney had a 43-19 lead. they see the republican party completely in disarray fighting for its soul. educate the voters and stir the pot. >> the republican party is not in disarray and we believe in the vetting process. we want a health write debate out there. let the people of america see their candidate who they want to choose. the difference between that and a media that will sit there and shill by the way as they did in the last election cycle for

barack obama. rather than ask direct questions about the candidates, that's a clear difference. megyn: is there any chance this backfires because there are folks out there who don't love the unions. if they see the unions attacking mitt romney? >> mitt romney can use all the help he can get, so if this backfires i'm sure he will be thankful for it. >> no matter what barack obama says or no matter what the democrats do, in then it's your pocketbook and kitchen table. am i better off now than i was 3 years ago, 4 years ago? and do i see a future? upward mobility. >> the republican party wants to do everything it can for the top 1%. $5 trillion since the 2006 pelosi conference. 9 trillion, we are going to

16.1. the longest -- megyn: now it's starting to feel like math. >> the longest high unemployment since depression. megyn: i have some math for you. three minutes to "kelly's court" and it's about this. catholics are outraged after the announcement the overhaul of healthcare will force religious groups to pay for employees birth control. the catholic universities and organizations will have to pay for it through the healthcare law. does that violate the separation of church and state? a vending machine that tries to help students make healthier choices by insulting them. why don't they just put healthy choices in the vernlding machine? >> never mind what these do to

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megyn: "kelly's court" is back in session. the obama administration picking a fight with the catholic church. they are now required to pay for sterilizations, and the morning after pill. some are vowing to pay the penalty instead of complying with the law. >> he promised catholics he would respect conscience.

in november timothy dolan, the archbishop of new york sat down with president obama and was assured he would get conscience rights to be respected. now we are firing out they are not. megyn: the cardinal elect in new york city, timothy dolan and other catholic bishops who met with president obama and were assured there would and balance they would strike. and now a one-year extension for us to comply with a law we find unconscionable is no solution at all. can they challenge this legally? >> yes. not on can they do that, but they can be successful and here is why. most of us note first amendment. but there is a component to it, and that is the free exercise clausing a well as the

establishment clause. it means we have the right to establish a religion and we can practice it to the best of our ability whenever we want however we want. what this does is offends that. here is how it offends it. it tells you if you find providing preventative services reprehensible because your religion tells you so, and you have the government mandating it that you provide these services, and you do it at no cost. as a result of that they will prevail in this lawsuit. megyn: how can it be consistent with the freedom of religion to require a catholic hospital to provide pills that lead to sea borings? >> i think the supreme court if it gets there will ultimately rule, we are putting women's rights first. let me make this clear. i see her tonight both sides of this argument. it's not an easy decision.

but women i think the court will rule should not have to take a lower standard of health insurance nor should they be in a position to grovel to their employers to try to get contraception coverage. it shouldn't have to happen that way. and i think ultimately that's what there is decision insures. megyn: the women don't have to choose to work at a catholick hospital or university where they know there will be different beliefs and policies that you have at a non-denominational organization. >> absolutely. let's make no mistake about this. it has nothing at all to do with upgrading women, rights baipt has to do with is respecting religious freedom. if we work for our employer and our employer happens to be of the catholic faith and they are of the view that preventative services is reprehensible to

their religion they should be able to practice what they believe and not be imposed on by a government that is regulating you and providing that you pay for it. there is nothing in the constitution that supports that and as a result of this this will be constitutionally be determined to be improper. megyn: the catholic groups will argue this would never be done to a catholic group or jewish group. there is something about the catholics and their beliefs that some people feel are easily targeted. >> i can understand why they would make that argument. i don't think this is about the employer's rights as it is about the employees rights. should the employers be able to cherry pick which procedures they believe in? if they don't believe in chemotherapy or psychiatry, they shouldn't get it? >> that's a stretch. it has to do with religious

beliefs. those religious beliefs say this is morally reprehensible. megyn: they will continue to fight this out. it doesn't take effect for another year. but we'll see. gentlemen, thank you. as we go to break, you are looking at live pictures out of center point, alabama. severe storms have left behind scenes like this. that's a wells far go bank. it has microparticles so it enters the bloodstream fast and rushes relief to the site of your tough pain. it's proven to relieve pain twice as fast as before. bayer advanced aspirin. ♪ [ gong ] strawberry banana! [ male announcer ] for a smoothie with real fruit plus veggie nutrition new v8 v-fusion smoothie. could've had a v8.

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megyn: new video just released of missing florida mom michelle parker. she has been missing since last november. the same day as an episode of "peoplele's court" aired.

a new warrior has emerged in the battle of the bulge and he's giving people with a sweet toot the street talk about unhealthy foods. but he's really an "it." a very sarcastic vending machine. >> what we are trying to do is help kids do something fun and exciting to gets their attention then teach them good messages. >> our obesity rate is better than the school average. so why are elementary school age children the focus of this campaign. >> we are seeing children dealing with higher weight. one in four children are overweight in the state of utah. >> when a child makes a selection at fake vending

machine, instead of a snack they get a funny and informative message. it has 20 different message. some rose park elementary student didn't like it and some did. but they all agreed it would help kids. >> it's cool. it's telling you things like making fun of you. >> it's kind of awesome. i think it will help a lot of kids make healthier choices. >> it will help them like get healthier choices than just like junk food. megyn: i don't get it. is it bad food in there? why wouldn't they just serve good food? and it's fake food. i missed that during the package. and, you know, can't you make a point without insulting people in apparently not. when i was trying to lose weight

and i was living with my mom and stepdad. i said every time you see me going to that refrigerator. could you cry out the following words "where are you going?" when you have diabetes...

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