2012. for the journalists of fox news, i'm shepard smith. analysis and opinion begins now on america's choice for news and information. this is fox news channel. >> bill: "the o'reilly factor" is on. tonight: >> all of this is wiped away by romney's totally phony history which he that nikely continues to repeat. >> bill: newt gingrich not giving up. despite polls showing him falling far behind governor romney in florida. county speaker upset the frontrunner tomorrow? brit hume will make a prediction. >> we are focused on not just florida but the rest of the states. we are doing great. >> bill: rick santorum 3-year-old daughter remains in intensive care putting the candidate in a very tough personal position. senator santorum will be here. leave the area. you may be arrested. [explosions] >> bill: is the last stand for the occupy wall street

movement? even the left is turning against these people. juan and mary katharine with analysis. caution, you are about to enter the no spin zone, the factor begins right now. captions by closed captioning services >> bill: hi, i'm bill o'reilly. thanks for watching us tonight. the mitt romney sunk -- surge in florida that's the latest from a poll taken in florida. most of the other polls have romney out in front as well. what has happened since south carolina? well, romney has spent millions on tv ads raising questions about speaker gingrich's history, mostly political but the ads are strongly negative. gingrich has fought back to some extent but he cannot match the romney cash. also governor romney did well in the last debate slowing down the gingrich momentum.

nevertheless, the speaker continues to warn about a possible romney nomination. on abc yesterday gingrich listed his own accomplishments and then hammered romney. >> all the this is wiped away by romney's totally phony history, which he that continues to repeat. we have a fight over whether somebody can be fundamentally dishonest and try to hide their liberal record in massachusetts and try to hide their past in terms of voting for democrats and get to be the nominee. >> but the real reason that mitt romney is surging in florida has to do with the republic voter in the sunshine state. like new hampshire, florida is less ideological than iowa or south carolina. and there are two kinds of republic voters nationwide committed conservatives who vote on values above all else and practical republicans who look at problem-solving and the ability to win. talking points respects both of those voting blocks and

those that are in florida, the practical voters outnumber the idealogues, that's why mitt romney is ahead. i'm not saying it's not practical to vote for newt gingrich. certainly a strong candidate and could take the fight to barack obama, no question about that as we said last week, it is a matter of style over substance in the republic primaries now. it's not much difference in the way romney and gingrich would govern the country although both would never admit that we believe mitt romney will win in florida tomorrow and it will be hard for speaker gingrich to find a pathway after that to derail the romney campaign. once florida voters speak, money will flow to mitt romney. and so newt gingrich will have to wait until march 6th, super tuesday, before any massive change in sentiment could possibly happen. in politics that is an eternity. there are just three debates scheduled between now and then. at this point the long and winding road according to paul mccartney is facing newt

gingrich. that's the memo. top story tonight. rick santorum polling around 13% in florida. he is not campaigning there today. his daughter bella is in the hospital with numerous la. senator santorum has to care for her in addition to carrying on with his campaign. the senator joins from us st. louis. how is bella today, senator. >> she is much better. yesterday afternoon she really made a turn and the chest x-rays dramatically improved. i just want to thank everybody for their prayers and outpouring of support for bella and karen and the family. it worked. i mean, she had a very, very tough time of it on saturday. sort of miraculous, bill, i haven't been home since christmas day and the one day i was home was the day that she really started to have a lot of problems and we ended up for the first time in three years she hasn't been in the hospital in three years. she has a condition called trisomi 18. which is a condition that makes you susceptible to having problems if you get

sick. severe problems. and so we were just very blessed that we had a good team there she has turned it around and doing great. i just talked to my wife. she son the mend and hopefully be out of the hospital in a couple of days. we are feeling good about things. >> that must make it very difficult for you, senator. i know you are committed to the campaign but certainly family comes first. and you have your little daughter in this kind of a condition. it's got to be very, very tough for you to deal with both of them, am i wrong. >> no, it's incredibly hard. one of the sacrifices that you make obviously as any candidate. karen and i have seven children. we have a couple of them on the road with us. the older ones that are out of school and they are traveling with us a lot. you know the other ones are behind. it's a sacrifice. particularly a sacrifice given this little girl who is really well well well outlived her life expectancy and really just a unique and terrific

little girl. she is the joy of other life. she is the most pleasant, sweet little girl you would ever want to meet. sort of the center of the family. i miss her terribly when i'm on the road but in many respects one of the reasons i'm out here is because, you know, fighting for little kids like bella who in many respects are, i think, going to be left behind whether it's obama care or whether it's a system where government is going to start to evaluate people not based on who they are or what they are but what they can do. that to me is a world that i don't want to be a part of and i'm going to fight to make sure never happens. >> bill: okay. you heard my talking points memo and it looks -- we will get into the analysis. it looks pretty clear that mitt romney will win from the votes that have already been cast in the three bellwether counties. again, we will get into this during the program. let's assume that romney does he have well in florida. you're in missouri right now because there is a primary there but it's a nonbinding, no delegate primary. do you stay in if the odds

then rise against you to the point where there is not a lot of money coming in, do you stay in the race? >> oh, absolutely. you know, the money is coming. in we have done very, very well. just over the last four or five days we have raised about a half a million dollars online. things have really done well since the last debate. we think we separated ourselves out from the pac really very well and, in fact, the past three debates. since it got down to four. we feel like we have gotten our stride here. while florida is a expensive place to play. i couldn't afford to play in from a financial point of view. we have. >> bill: 13 or 14%. let's be realistic here, senator, have you got nothing really coming up. nevada is romney territory. that's a caucus. minnesota, i don't know what's going on in minnesota. that's another caucus and nonbinding thing in missouri. super tuesday is going to be

an enormous financial buy. romney is the only guy that has the bucks. it's not about you or your ideology or how are. it's about the reality of money in this country. >> well, let me just say a couple of things. first up, it's proportional. so winning, while it's a good thing, it's not everything because delegates are going to be assigned base the on the per senel damage of the vote that you get. >> bill: florida is winner take all. >> it is. >> bill: you know what i'm talking about here. it becomes a very long long long shot for you, all right? as romney rises in money and donations. gingrich i don't know what he is going to do. i just don't know. we will try to find out. it becomes very difficult for you to really compete now, some people say well, it's worth hanging on because, number one, your message gets out. you continue to get your

message out. you become a player at the convention and if anything were to befall mitt romney or whoever the leader is, you are in position, that entering into your thinking? >> well, i think one thing we do know about this race, bill is if you don't like what's going on in the race wait a week or two. we have seen this race change literally a dozen times. >> bill: that's true, there is nothing in between now florida and super tuesday. there is no event -- unless it comes out of the news world. i will give you the last word. go ahead. >> well, i mean we have caucuses, you mentioned colorado which is another caucus. these caucuses are important. there are delegates at stake. missouri even the primary, even though it's not binding, a strong vote here for us will tell the story. there is a lot of restlessness among conservatives. they are not happy with governor romney. they are not happy with increasingly not happy with newt gingrich and the way his campaign is and some of the things have been highlighted. they are looking for someone as alternative.

do i believe this is an episode of survivor, bill. we'll hang in there, this race will come back to us at the right time. >> bill: i can't argue with you. you came out of nowhere in iowa. been very competitive. nobody thought that was going to happen. you hang in there and our best to your family. if we can do anything for bella or for your family you let us know, okay? thanks, senator. >> thank you, bill. i appreciate it. >> bill: next on the rundown brit hume with the latest polling results. mary katharine on the latest -- the last and latest of movements it's really out of control in oakland. coming right back. capital one's new cash rewards card

gives you a 50 percent annual bonus. so you earn 50 percent more cash. if you're not satisfied with 50% more cash, send it back! i'll be right here, waiting for it. who wouldn't want more cash? [ insects chirping ] i'll take it. i'll make it rain up in here. [ male announcer ] the new capital one cash rewards card. the card for people who want 50% more cash. what's in your wallet? sorry i'll clean this up. shouldn't have made it rain.

[ slap! ] [ slap! slap! slap! slap! ] ow, ow! [ male announcer ] your favorite foods fighting you? fight back fast with tums. calcium rich tums goes to work in seconds. nothing works faster. ♪ tum ta tum tum tums >> bill: hume zone segment tent. senior analyst. i love that. you know? >> i had to get it in my contract to be called that they wanted to call me the senior moment political analyst but i was able to ward that off. >> bill: there was the aarp analyst. all kinds of stuff going on with you. >> all of it fits, i'm afraid. >> bill: romney, we have got the polling guys up behind you. the initial votes in florida have already been cast. that sends a strong message that is he going to have a good day tomorrow. you heard my talking points and my interview with rick

santorum. you know, i'm looking for the pathway. i'm looking for how these guys get traction after florida. i'm not quite seeing it but you know more. what say you? >> well, i thought i mean i think a lot of us thought after new hampshire, for example, that both gingrich and santorum were finished. gingrich finished fifth in new hampshire. and, yet, he stays -- staged a stunning comeback. remarkable come back. santorum won iowa. things have been happening in this race and, you know, there is always a temptation on a lot of us to want to call these things over and see a straight line projection to certain outcome. but straight line projections are very dangerous in politics. the next few weeks don't look to be particularly busy. only a couple of events. only one debate in the month of february. there is not a lot ahead of us. things can happen. i have no reason to think

there is anything to this idea. let's suppose something came out about mitt romney's finances that made us all understand why he didn't release any more tax returns and he did. all of a sudden there is big cure if you feel about that anything can happen in politics. dangerous to make a straight line projection. a lot will depend, bill how much money gingrichens backers are willing to put up if he loses badly in flerld tomorrow. >> bill: the indications are not much because did he come into florida with momentum as you pointed out and romney has outspent him 4 to 1. and even though he has got the big gambling guy kicking a lot of money in there for him, one of the reasons that newt gingrich isn't doing as well in florida as some thought he might is because he can't make the buys. he can't buy the ads. he can't counter what the romney people are saying about him. and he knows it gingrich knows it and he is teed off. you can see it in his demeanor. you can see that in that interview he he gave nbc news yesterday.

>> he kind of gets rattled and he starts campaigning about the campaign which is not effective. >> bill: no. but i don't blame him. he is he basically saying can i beat this guy if the playing field were level but it isn't because the establishment is giving him all the money. i don't expect that to change if romney wins big in florida. there is going to be more money for romney and less money for gingrich and santorum. >> bill: all that. >> all that makes perfect sense, bill. i'm not saying it won't play that that way. i'm not seeing it any differently than you do. we have called this over too many times already, i think. >> bill: i don't think we called over to. but we give the folks the realistic viewft landscape. you and i are doing that right now. >> right. >> bill: if there is press generated. believe me, they are going after romney's finances. they have got guys all over the caymans and switzerland, trying to find out if there is anything this guy has done. remember, he had that money in trust invested for him. he wasn't doing this. that's a big shield between

him and whatever they may find because they will find stuff. the second thing is rick santorum and newt gingrich are probably smart to hang in as long as they can because something as you said might happen and there they are if something does. >> a lot of real uneasiness with the republic electorate with mitt romney. despite the fact he has been able to beat gingrich to a pulp in florida with ads and have a huge win tomorrow. the remaining uneasiness romney has a lot to do. he needs to make a better case for himself as a capitalist. better argument on the economy than he has made. look, i'm mitt romney, i'm a former businessman. i have got a bad economy elect me. that's oversimplyification but it needs to be more substantive and powerful with that until he does he won't in my view completely close the sale with a great many

republicans. >> bill: brit hume, everybody, thanks. we asked you has the factor been fair so far in covering the campaign in more than 20 hours of you voted. 73% say yes would have been fair. 27% say we have not. please email us your beef. directly ahead, the occupy wall street movement blows up in oakland, california as we predicted it would. juan and mary katharine will analyze and then robert redford slamming the republic candidates. say it ain't so sundance kid. coming right back. this is $100,000. we asked total strangers to watch it for us. thank you so much, i appreciate it, i'll be right back.

they didn't take a dime. how much in fees does your bank take to watch your money ? if your bank takes more money than a stranger, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. [ male announcer ] for our town. [ dog barks ] for our country. ♪ for our future. ♪ this isn't just the car we wanted to build. it's the car america had to build. ♪ the extended range electric chevy volt. from the heart of detroit to the health of the country, chevy runs deep. when i'm on overtime. when i'm in over my head. when i have to be sharp... no matter how many time zones i've crossed.

when i'm on my feet for hours. when it's game time. when the day's only half over but my energy is all gone. when i need the energy to start exercising. every day. every day. every day is a 5-hour energy day. 5-hour energy. every day. you should know that just one dose of children's advil gives up to eight hours of fever relief. allowing your little one to get back to building a better afternoon. children's advil. relief you can trust.

>> bill: impact segment tonight, always interesting to find out why voters cast their ballots a certain way. as we told you in the talking points memo, mitt romney is surging in florida according to the polls and newt gingrich is falling back. joining us now from charlottesville dr. larry sabato the director for center of politics at the university of virginia. from miami, david paligos the director of the political research center which polled the republic race over the weekend in the sunshine state david why exactly the romney surge we conducted four polls. state poll showing romney winning 47-27. we conducted the sister tests that we do at suffolk just to verify the margins and the outcomes and we selected three counties in florida. one in the northeast region, one in the southeast region, one in the southwest region from like elections. and all three of these are pointing to landslide win

tomorrow. >> shepard: when you say -- >> bill: when you say that the counties you selected selected ; they are heavily white counties not like dated. how do you say that? how do you know it's a landslide because the vote is tomorrow. not even here yet. how do you know? >> well, we have had some pretty good success with bellwethers at suffolk. there have been 0% accurate in terms of straight up winners. in the cases in the last three election cycles where all three bellwethers agree on the same outcome they have been 100% accurate. >> bill: polling from those counties. not advanced votes, right? >> that's right. part of it were people who had already voted and part of had indicated very likely to vote. and in all three scenarios, in two of the three scenarios, romney actually broke 50%. 52% to 24%. in the other it was mid 40s.

>> bill: advance vote in florida, dr. sabato is very interesting because -- people have cast their ballot which makes it out of the realm of theory. we assume the polling is going to be accurate. it was in south carolina. then what? then what? what happens to romney, gingrich and santorum? >> well, look, gingrich won south carolina by a big margin, double digits. romney is going to win florida by double digits. but they are not equal states. there is nine electoral votes in south carolina. there are 29 in florida. this is a giant win for mitt romney and it really does set back the aspirations of newt gingrich for lots of reasons. not least as you mentioned there is nothing really happening that gingrich is going to do well in come february. he has to wait until march 6th to make a real move. and the same with santorum. i just don't see how they move

forward. that's not to say they can't win additional contests. gingrich can win some primaries on march 6th in the south and the border states. but, can he make it that far? >> bill: can he make it that far because he he doesn't have any money, right? -- can he make it that far because he says is he going to stay in until the end. >> as long as his friend, mr. allegedson continues to send him money to the super pac. maybe he can stay. in maybe he can win some more primaries. bill, there is now an 80% to 90% probability that romney is going to be the republic nominee. >> bill: where does that come from 80% to 90%. where did you get that. >> from past performance. historical performance. >> bill: do you agree with that? >> i think mitt romney is better set up to win, you know. newt gingrich didn't make the ballot in his home state of virginia. have you got this damn that's that's -- dam about to burst in florida. big knock on mitt romney is he

doesn't get a majority of anything. is he a politics of plurality. if he hits 50 or gets close to 50% which could happen tomorrow, that dam breaks and the tributaries go into those four caucuses, maine, nevada, colorado, minnesota, and then it's lights out at that point. ironically in a twisted way, i think that gingrich needs to stay in the race to help mitt romney. if newt gingrich got out tomorrow, tomorrow night, i think that would hurt romney in some of those key swing states. >> bill: okay. we didn't mention ron paul because is he not even campaigning in florida. you know he is pretty much ceding that state. plenty more ahead as the factor tore moves along this evening of the occupy wall street movement embarrasses itself by violence in oakland. we will show you what happened. vice president biden told president obama not to go after usama bin laden in pakistan. wow, what an admission. we hope you stay tuned to those reports. u are a business .

premier of the packed bag. you know organization is key... and so is having a trusted assistant. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...and go. you can even take a full-s or above and still pay the mid-size price. here we are... [ male announcer ] and there you go, business pro. there you go. go national. go like a pro.

my high school science teacher made me what i am today. r science teacher helped us build it. ♪ now i'm a geologist at chevron, and i get to help science teachers. it has four servo motors and a wireless microcontroller. over the last three y we've put nearly 100 million dollars into american education. that's thousands of kids learning to love ience. ♪ isn't that cool? and that's pretty cool. ♪

in what passes for common sense. used to be we socked money away and expected it to grow. then the world changed... and the common sense of retirement planning became anything but common. fortunately, td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. take control by opening a new account or rolling over an old 401(k) today, and we'll throw in up to $600. how's that for common sense?

saturday they unleashed in oakland, california. [shouting] >> tear gas multiple times all day today. all we were doing was marching. [explosions] >> what they are doing don't even make sense. go home. >> what justifies vandalizing an historic beloved building that's a symbol of oakland's

resilience and history? >> you are now under arrest. >> oakland very liberal town. very liberal. that mayor is off the chart. they have all turned against the occupy movement because of the spectacle and there were hundreds arrested. i think 400 arrested. few injuries, none serious as we know. joining us is mary katharine and juan williams. it's all over. >> no, it's not. no, no. you have democratic mayors throwing them out. what those outcome people in oakland are doing it's terrible. you have a lot of people there, veterans, people unemployed. that whole thing should not be confused with a bigger idea, bill, two thirds of the american people left and right don't like bailouts for the banks. don't like bailouts for wall street. think what's been going on in terms of the economic system, the tax system favors the wealthy.

that's occupy wall street, you are going to see more of it. >> are you telling me that brand is not through? you are telling me they are going to sign up for occupy wall street? that brand is done. >> would you tell me the tea party is a done deal? >> bill: they got hurt last summer because of the compromise and they have lost a lot of power. you know that? everybody knows that. >> guess what? occupy wall street right now is more popular in america than the tea party. >> bill: no it isn't. the polls say it is not. absolutely not. >> we disagree then. i want to tell you something. g 8 in chicago. political conventions in the summer. >> bill: causes a much problems as possible and americans are going to turn against them. >> the tea party did not cause any problems in the street. no violence. none of this stuff, okay? costing the taxpayers millions of dollars tea party is well positioned to rise.

these people are done. what do you say mary cath rib? what do you say? >> occupy wall street movement has not been obliterated. they are given a pass. i don't think they are making the same excuse for tea party or letting that go by. your movement does have to be connected to many solve the bad things that happen at your events. there have been a lot of bad things that have happened. oakland is, of course, i think one of the more tumultuous place it has happened. liberal mayors standing in front of the vandalism at a liberal town hall saying this is an issue or in d.c. and i'm not making this up. d.c. the main story line about occupy has been the rat infestation for a couple weeks now. once you they're the pr battle has been lost. here is the thing, president obama they were his punitive popular news hook for bringing out the class warfare rhetoric he likes to talk about. the ideas live on in him so they had like a message victory there. i think the president wanted to go there anyway. >> that was very early on

though. you haven't heard him or any other democrats since november. >> that was last week, bill. >> last week, how? >> state of the union. >> bill: he said the message but he didn't say the crew. he is not backing the crew? >> you are not hearing mary katharine. >> bill: i'm hearing, juan, difference between the crew and the message. there is a difference. >> the idea is living. if you are talking about people who are on the street and i say advisedly people vagrants, unemployed. people who have mental issues and rats swimming around as mary katharine says. nobody likes them. those are democrat mayors, liberals throwing them out. >> part of the brand. >> bill: they lost control of the message. the brand is that these are destructive people that are hurting other americans and taking money out of the treasuries of places like oakland which are bankrupt anyway and causing trouble. look, the message is the message. if you want to believe america is an oppressive country because wealthy people are doing well. then good you believe that. >> that is not the message.

these are sad souls that you are talking about on the street. the message is something has to be done to protect the middle class and make sure if you want to make it in. >> bill: that's the message of the democratic party. not the occupy wall street movement. the democratic party is running on that. vote for us, and we will give you what we can give you and take those -- money from the rich guys. that's their message. >> that's fairness. >> bill: that's fairness? [ laughter ] >> i think obama taken some of the occupy wall street message which is what mary katharine was saying and i think the idea in the polls stays alive. >> bill: let mary katharine have the last word. >> here is a question with a movement like this. does it become an electoral force and get things done. >> no some of them have been assumed in justice groups and the brand has gone await a minute the brand has been partially hurt and message has been partially hurt by these groups why do you want to embrace the at the present time cities. barack obama has decided to do that there is a colonel of

this that americans respond to but these folks have really stepped all over their own message. >> bill: they blew it they had it going for a little while and now you can't defend them. mary katharine and juan thanks very much. when we come right back, president obama has spent almost a trillion dollars trying to stimulate the economy. now it looks like things may be improving. did all the money help? we'll find out. and then robert redford going after the republic presidential contenders. we'll hear what sundance has to say moments away.

kiss those lines goodbye! discover juvéderm® xc, the smooth gel filler your doctors uses to instantly smooth out those parentheses lines around your nose and mouth for up to a year! temporary side effects include redness, pain, firmness, swelling, bumps or risk of infection. lose those lines! the way you look with juvéderm® xc, might just change the way you look at everything. ask your doctor and visit juvederm.com.

yeah. the spectrum is from lg. and the r2 unit is from... from naboo. naboo. yeah. the spectrum's got a 4.5" screen, fits nicely in your hand. r2-d2 needs a starfighter. starfighter ? that's like a million dollars in gas. yeah, it's pricey. it's got verizon's 4g lte for lightspeed downloads and a true hd screen to watch movies. i'm going to go with the... it's a good choice. ... phone. the lg spectrum powered by verizon 4g lte, for true hd mobile entertainment.

economically, it seems like a good choice now. we need environmental protection. we've got more than 100 years worth of energy, right here. [announcer:] who's right? they all are. visit powerincooperation.com. >> thanks for staying with us, i'm bill o'reilly in the campaign 2012 segment tonight, president obama, of course, will have to run on his economic record. big thing there is that his administration has spent almost a trillion dollars of taxpayer money trying to stimulate the economy. of course, along the way, there have been disasters like solyndra and other

controversial expenditures. other economic reports of things looking up. joining us from los angeles actor and economists what author of the book "what would ben stein do" mr. stein and stuart varney. i want to get a jump on the general campaign rather than the we have seen since any recession after world war ii. we should be expanding three and a half, 4%. all previous recessions did at this point. right now we have got less than 2% growth. 2 million fewer jobs than before the recession. that's of right now. gas prices up 190 to 340. and and we have a housing

crisis still lower than what they were before the recession. >> bill: are you saying that the stimulus money, almost a trillion taxpayer dollars didn't do anything to help the economy? >> it may have provided something of a cushion but a very mild cushion. >> was it worth the expenditure. >> flat out, no. we don't have anything to show for it except a trillion in extra debt. >> what do you say ben stein? >> well, there has never been a federal stimulus program that has brought this country out of a mild or even severe or any kind of economic catastrophe ever in peace time. world war ii. mammoth spending in world war ii did it but there has never been a recovery based upon stimulus ever in peace time. this stimulus did provide jobs for teachers, firefighters, police who are great people and they deserve to have jobs, maybe they -- almost certainly shouldn't have been laid off. built a few bridges, paved quite a few miles of road. it's a very expensive way to stimulate the economy. wound up costing several

hundred thousand per job. it would have been more efficient to give it back to people in tax cuts. incomparablably. >> bill: here is the question for both of you. barack obama is an eloquent guy good campaigner. >> very good. >> bill: he can sell his product. >> very good. >> bill: can he sell his product to a mass market audience, all right? 300 million measures who have to decide who is -- million americans who have to decide who is telling the truth him saying my policies worked or saying is he incompetent. is it going to be the best salesman wins? >> his spin will be very good. failure of the stimulus into obvious success. he will say i saved $2 million. can't prove it but that's what he will say. that is spin. he will say the economy is going in the right direction. i turned it around. i say it's not -- it is going in the right direction but

nowhere near fast enough. >> bill: that's what you say but what are the folks going to say? >> the folks will be presented with one objective fact and unspinnable and that is debt. >> bill: 15 trillion. >> $34,000 worth of debt for every american on day one of the presidency. 48,000 now. 50,000 in the election. can't get around that. >> bill: debt to -- we heard the democrats say it last week. to most people it's not real. it will be when we default, bill. at some point the u.s. is going to default on the national debt. you know something? it's getting close -- i know a lot of people don't believe it's getting closer and closer. the stimulus was a great idea in theory. it has never worked. the new deal didn't work. >> shepard: you live in los angeles, correct? >> yes, i do. >> bill: there is no way on earth that barack obama is not

going to win los angeles county and california. no matter what you say. can you go door to door. >> no way on earth. >> bill: you can vote for him no matter what you say no matter what warning comes, they will vote for him. >> you are right. >> bill: why? >> because i think it's largely interest group and ethnic politics. he has a very powerful hold among certain ethnic groups and they will not let him down. so, he will win by a huge amount. voters in this country in the last presidential election was very heavily ethnic. it will be heavily ethnic. i predict he will win by a huge amount no matter hot republic nominee is. >> bill: in new york where we are right now it's going to win. it doesn't matter if you run right down sixth avenue right now like paul revere on a horse screaming the debt, they are still going to vote for barack obama in this state, correct? >> i'm not so sure. this debt situation and the real unemployment situation

really hurts. it hits home. people. >> bill: you want to bet mio bomb that carries new york right now? >> i would like to belt. >> bill: stuart varney by the way son the air from 3:30 in the morning until 11:30 at night. hardest working guy in show business. there he is he is always on the air. every time i turn it on. there he is reality check on deck. robert redford slamming the republicans. what a surprise. and vice president biden admitting he would have not have gone after usama bin laden in pakistan. check is next.

. >> bill: back ever the book segment tonight. reality check, we begin with check one, a stunning admission by vice president biden about the decision-making process that led to the killing of bin laden.

>> the president, he went around the table with all the senior people, including the chiefs of staff, and he said "i have to make the decision, what is your opinion?" mr. president, my decision is don't go. we have to do two more things to see if he is there. >> bill: that a stunning admission from a politician. and biden did not have to make it he volunteered the information to a gathering of house democrats. check applauds the vice president's honesty but not his strategic vision. check 2. defense secretary leon panetta putting iran on notice. >> if they proceed and we get intelligence that they are proceeding with developing a nuclear weapon, then we will take whatever steps are necessary to stop him. >> including military steps? >> there are no options off the table. the consensus is if they decided to do it, it would probably take them about a year to be able to produce a bomb and then possibly another one to two years to put it on

a deliverable vehicle of some sort. deliver that weapon. >> if president obama does win a second term. is he now committed to stopping iran's nuclear weapons program. check three, one guy rooting for mr. obama to win is left wing actor robert redford director of the sundance in utah. he was asked a dopey question whether he thinks mitt romney likes the transformer movies. >> in terms of mitt romney i mean i'm not going to get into politics. the fact is you can see with the debates going on, mushroom cloud of ego hovering over everybody. it's kind of silly and stupid and i'm sorry about it but we don't get into that. mitt romney can go see what he wants to see. transformers is great it's there for him. but that's not where we are. >> bill: somebody should inform mr. red ford i your

humble correspondent have a key role in transformers three so he better lay off. check four. on the jeanine pirro program saturday night sarah palin raged against the machine. >> when both party machines and many in the media are trying to crucify newt gingrich for bucking the tide and bucking the establishment, that tells you something. and i say, you know, and you got to rage against the machine at this point in order to defend our republic and save what is good and secure and prosperous about our nation. we need somebody who is engaged in sudden and relentless reform and isn't afraid to shake it up, shake up that establishment. so, if for no other reason, rage against the machine, vote for newt. annoy a liberal. >> bill: rage against the machine, of course, a rock group whose big hit was gorilla radio. if i had an ipod i would have it on there. but i don't. check 5. and while we're on the

subject, did you know the lead singer of the group mega death dave musdane is a factor fan actually seen with factor producers in new york city featuring motor head as well as the guys. apparently everybody had a good time, i guess. but nobody has heard any sound since the concert. i talked to -- what? a little loud, mega deaf. glad they like the factor. the muppets were in england over the weekend promoting their movie when a reporter asked kermit and miss piggy about a bad review they got from eric bolling. >> eric bolling from fox news said it was pushing a dangerous liberal agenda and trying to brain wash children. so dangerous. [ laughter ] it's a funny thing, they were concerned about us having some

prejudice against oil companies and i can tell that that is not true. besides if we have problems with oil companies why would we have spent the entire film driving around in a gas guzzling rolls royce. >> almost as laughable as accusing fox news of, you know, being news. [ laughter ] [ applause ] >> boy, that's going to be all over the internet. >> if they take what i say seriously they have got a real big problem. >> bill: we still like the municipalities but they better watch it that is reality check. pinheads and patriots starring john mccain on deck. p and p moments away. ♪ you ane and the big old tree ♪ ♪ side by side, e, two, three ♪ ♪ counthe birds in the big o tree ♪ ♪ la la la [ male announcer ] the inspiring story

of how shipping giant can befriend a forest may seem like the stuff of fairy tales. ♪ ♪ you and me and the g old tree side by side ♪ butyou take away the faces on the trees... take away the pixie dust. take away the singing animals, and the charminoutfits. take away the sprites, and the storybook narrator... [ man ] you're le with more electric trucks. more recycled shipping materials... and a growing number of lower emissions planes... which still makes for a pretty enchanted tale. ♪ la la la whoops, forgot one... [ male announcer ] sustainable solutions. fedex. solutions that matter. day my journey continues across the golden state, [ male announcer ] sustainable solutions. where everyone has been unbelievably nice. mornin'. i guess i'm helping them save hundreds on car insurance. it probably also doesn't hurt

that i'm a world-famous advertising icon. cheers! i mean, who wouldn't want a piece of that? geico. ah... fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent oh dear... or more on car insurance. [ male announcer ] for our town. [ dog barks ] ... ♪ for our future. ♪ this isn't just the car we wanted to build. it's the car america had to build. ♪ the extended range electric chevy volt. from the heart of detroit to the health of the country, chevy runs deep. no, i wouldn't use that single miles credit card. hey, aren't you... shhh. i'm researchg a role. today's special... the capital one venture card. you earn double miles on every purchase. impressive. chalk is a lost medium.

if you're not earning double miles... you're settling for half. was that really necessary? [ male announcer ] get the venture card at capitalone.com and earn double miles on every purchase every day. what's in your wallet? cover for me. i have an audition. >> bill: first, abraham's lichb con is february 12th. "killing lincoln," is the vehicle to do that. a massive best-seller. we passed the steve jobs book. to become a premium member you get the book free of charge or the audio of your choice. now to the mail.

>> bill: here is the deal. when a voter becomes emotionally involved with the candidate and the skin criticized the reaction is to attack the messenger injury. we have praised and criticized all the candidate. 75% of the viewers we have been fair across the board. >> bill: i'm a registered independent.

>> bill: of course we wosmt he would help in many places but he is not going to do it. >> bill: because nobody asked me. i would do it. but it would be scorched earth. toughest questions i could think of and everybody has to answer. can you picture that? >> bill: i think they lost a lot of listeners. i gave the woman some time but it got real boring.

>> bill: a lot of in these shows but i can't possibly say here. >> bill: it remains number one. pinheads and patriots, mccain has enough of the republican debates. >> enough of the debates because they are driving up our candidates, all of them on unfavorability. it's turned to mud wrestling instead of the issues. we've had enough of that. it's time to recognize hot real adversary is. >> bill: 45% of voters say there have been too many debates. 9% wants more debates. >> we check out the fox