cycle and coming up tomorrow on the show, we have ann coulter plus an author about this book, the behind the scenes of what it's like to be involved in the most exclusive club in the world, ex-presidents. >> you're peddling faster than me. >> because i'm burning calories, baby. >> just in time for tax weekend. new signs. small business owners bumming. big companies still hoarding? and stocks suffering the worst week of the year. is it all because of the massive tax bomb that's ticking and looming over all of us? hi, everyone. i'm brenda buttner. this is "bulls & bears." let's get right to it! we've got tobin smith, jonas max ferris, gary b. smith along with ameala antonefti and stefan finch. welcome to everybody. you say you think this tax season is taxing. just wait. >> you know, brenda, i think in 2013, we're going to have to all move to the cayman islands. it's going to be a lot better

there than it is here because, you know, brenda, heritage foundation called 2013 tax-mageddon. here's why. the average household here in the u.s. will see tax increases of $3800. you know, that comes from the expiration of the bush one and two tax cuts. expiration of the payroll tax cuts, obamacare increases and i heard obama is talking about this buffet tax, maybe we'll get that also and you know, brenda, here's the worst part. the primary focus on these taxes are going to be the middle and low income households because that's where the bulk of the bush tax cuts went to. in 2013, it's not going to be a very good year for anyone and the economy, brenda. >> ok, you are a small business owner. you are hiring tomorrow, what's this doing for your confidence and for your plans for the future? >> i haven't been confident in the longest -- i don't know if i know how to exude confidence

anymore. if i pull the small business owners and ourselves, we feel like endentured servants for the government. the fact that you would take our attention down into that level of massive amounts of paperwork and then ignore what we keep saying when we come to taxes. i would love to see what the numbers are going to be of how many people are filing extensions this weekend waiting to see what's really going to happen. how in the world are we really going to be able to file. >> stefan, that kind of uncertainty does have an impact, doesn't it, on consumer confidence and all the rest. are you worried? >> no, i'm not. this is such baloney. i mean, there is no chance that we are going back to the big, bad clinton-gingrich tax cut. i'm not afraid of that particularly. there is no chance even a democratic congress would pass, you know, just a return to the old days which is probably going to sneak up very slowly. the real problem with the economy, the reason why all those companies are hoarding money and small businesses are not doing as well as they should

and people are upset about the economy is 12.7 e million unemployed people, we're not doing enough to put those people back to work and we're not doing enough to juice the economy. that's what's got people nervous. there's no chance we're going to go to the kind of heritage foundation tax bomb. it's more like a tax burp. >> how can you say that business owners are any way -- even being able to be planned based on the fact that we're trapped underneath the individual tax form? business owners have said now for, i can't even tell you how many terms, we cannot be trapped under the individual tax form in order for us to be able to prepare and start jobs and hiring. >> i think it's amazing that you are trying to speak for millions of business owners. i'm a business owner. you don't speak for me. i don't think you know what you're talking about. >> you know what i wanted to say, plenty more -- >> ok. i want to point out one thing, you said that democrats would not even push tax hikes. there's no need to push any tax hikes. this is just tax -- tax cuts

that will expire. this has nothing to do. nobody has to do anything. >> there's no chance -- there is no chance of the bush tax cuts expiring. there will be congressional action. they're working on that now. there will be a deal. >> if you say that, how can -- how do we plan? you just contradicted yourself. >> it's not a big deal. >> all right. ok. toby, not a big deal! go for it. >> well, let's look at the stock market for a second. when you have capital gains, in other words, the tax you pay on your profit, go up 45% then let's talk about the stock market. the wealth effect has been very strong here in the last six to nine months. >> that's basically a tax on investment profits, capital gains. >> yeah. if i -- hang on! hang on! >> hold on. >> hold on, go ahead. >> so the issue here is that if you're going to choose to sell or own a stock in the next year, you're going to pay a 40% higher

tax on your profit. if you wait until next year. what human nature is going to be, is we'll have a lot of selling and we're at a point in the market where sort of at that level and i can see the market down 15% next year and that has a trickle effect. >> jonas, let's go to you. go ahead. >> all those logos and all those companies that are hoarding cash we showed, none of them are looking at tax increases ever. in fact, those corporations are actually probably going to get their taxes cut. that's guaranteed on some level. they're certainly not going to get a higher price. let's get that out on the table. look, we have been running a stimulus economy for so long, people forget what taxes they u used to pay. two presidents now have increased the stimulus as if we're in a depression for going on many years now and we forgot that these are just going back to rates that are healthy and the economy can handle. neither president has cut anything to pay for these tax cuts so we as a nation have to return to these tax rates and

it's going to make you miserable because you don't remember paying that rate. >> tax whatever you want to tax, make it easy for us to be able to file and not take weeks out of my business where i got to do the paperwork. >> but the issues, though, that you said, the word that you used, jonas was a healthy economy. gary b, is that where we are right now? can we sustain an end to these tax cuts? >> absolutely not! and for all the stimulus that the government has done and, you know, stefan mentioned stimulus as we need to do more. the whole purpose of the stimulus was to get the economy moving and to really, the headline feature was to get unemployment down below 8%. now, unemployment is higher than when obama took office and when he started. we spent all this money. we're taxing and we're spending more than we're taking in. we're seeing nothing for it. and as i started out, we're going to see more taxes next year. maybe all that is good in a great, bubbly, roaring economy

like we had in the late 1990's. we don't have that now. >> toby? >> if we get back -- yeah, i mean, you have to -- you can't take all this stuff and just single piece. you have to take a macro look here and, you know, sort of the marginal shareholder is the person that's more confident to buy shares. the small businessperson who is more confident to buy inventory, etc., is -- is in a bubble. you push them a little too hard and they were tracked and we just don't have -- to gary b's point, we don't have the momentum in the economy that's growing fast enough to be able to absorb another push in the back. >> let me go to jonas with that. he was saying it's going back to the norm. >> look, we'd love to keep those taxes forever. as you can see from the ongoing deficits we are not cutting what it takes to cut to pay for it. therefore, we have to return to a tax code that can balance a budget. i will say not just a bubble, yeah, there was a tech bubble in the 90's. this country has grown through

decades through much higher tax rates that they're about to get. they're a big boom for everybody now. in the 50's and 60's, this country does very well through higher tax regimes and we can get by without 0% interest rates forever. america is a strong country. we have to get back to reality at some point. >> basically, gary b, he's saying that we are kind of becoming an entitlement culture. >> well, yeah. that just hit to jonas' point. it's what philosophy you have. if you think the government should become bigger and bigger and bigger and it certainly will under any kind of budget that the obama administration has talked about, it's going to be bigger and bigger and take care of all of us, then, yeah. we might as well move to europe without the good food. >> that has to be the last word. thank you so much. from the ticking tax bomb to even more sticker shock explosion hitting your wallet. guess who is still denying we have an inflation nation.

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back to "bulls & bears." >> inflation is tame? >> they say that inflation in your consumer index is nothing. i'm looking at these prices here that human beings can't substitute that have to buy and, you know, childcare 3%. your checking account is up 9% costwise. college up 5% and then lo and behold, bacon and cheese are up 8%. you can't substitute that out? >> no, you can't. and steak and hamburger. >> absolutely. but my point is that we have real cost increases at the same time that wages haven't grown

nearly as much and, you know, college tuitions are up and people 25% of people's homes are underwater. that is going to affect behavior. it's just denial. >> and people's houses are underwater and rent is going up. gary b, i know you go to safeway and you tell us when you go there, you can really shop well. you're a conscious, cost conscious shopper. >> just today, brenda, nancy and i took advantage of bogo, buy one, get one free. so yes, people do substitute, toby! if, you know, a hamburger is expensive, we switch to ham or chicken. but that's not the point. that's not the point of substitution. the point is how they measure it in the basket of goods that the bureau of labor statistics measured says 2.7%. yes, we spent all of our money on ham and eggs and inflation would be higher. if we spend all our money on gasoline, then our inflation would be higher but it's not

because people forget, natural gas prices are down. eating out is like at .1%. so all these things balance out and people, if they took a look at their budget, yes, gasoline, everybody knows has gone up but other things have gone down. that's why overall inflation is 2.7%. >> ok, this is the only time i've ever heard you believe the government figures. >> well, it's either that, brenda, or our i start to believe in the black helicopter conspiracy stuff. >> all right. so amelia, go for it. >> this is what's breaking the heart of small business people. yes, absolutely. childcare is up. not only childcare is up. all the other things that used to be included in school are no longer covered. they're having to supply paper and wet ones and the cleaning product for their kids. now transportation is no longer included. so they're having to figure that out. transportation now means gas. that becomes another issue.

we've got summer coming up and i've got a line of employees who go, i don't know what i'm going to do with my kids this summer because i can't afford summer school. what do i do? do i try to take the vacation time? vacation time, we no longer have two or three weeks. now we have one week. they're right when they sit in front of me and say i can't even afford my daily life anymore and as a business owner, i can't help them! and that is the hardest place for any c.e.o. to be knowing that they are right and i can't help you. >> do you see -- do you see inflation? >> i've got to tell you, i think gary is an absolutely beautiful man and he's right about the numbers. the government number is good. and in fact, i'll tell you what, amelia raises good points, the realities of life right now is the economy is not strong enough. the problem isn't inflation. the problem is that incomes are not rising the way they should and the way that they would in helping the economy. i'll tell you what about inflation. i would actually welcome a little higher inflation. i think we're too eager to fight

a very old battle. >> sure. >> we beat -- and everybody -- the inflation hawks think it's 1979. i got to say that disco is dead. inflation is not a serious concern. we should be focusing on other things. >> well, i got to go to somebody who is an expert on this, jonas, what do you think about inflation? >> first of all, that lmfao guy is popular. i don't know if that's true. i will say that pad thing that he keeps looking at is something that the price doesn't go up every year. you're going to buy one every year. now that they have a new screen on it. this point about tuitions going up, true, and having to cut back to schools and buy stuff, that's called states cutting back so they can balance their budgets. it's not inflation. let's not mix the two. there's 2% to 3% inflation, that's what the government has targeted. they want that. the only bad part is that homes and wages aren't going up. wages have been declining relative to inflation are not going up as fast as inflation for a few months now. that's the concern that makes you feel poor. if we have 4% increase in pay

and 3% increase in prices, people like that so we want that to happen. we like higher prices with higher wages. we're just not getting that yet because we have a lot of -- >> if i had cash flow like i did a couple of years ago, i would be able to work over this next quarter which is summer. that's what we do in the small businesses. the businesses that i own, we would help our employees during the summer. that's when we do job share and all that, and i was more liquid with the cash flow in order to be able to stay in my business knowing i'd make it up in the fourth quarter. i can't do that anymore! >> ok. >> sorry, guys, we got to go. all right. >> thank you. >> well, forget about the health care law mandate. are your taxes and medical costs going up? even if the supreme court strikes it down? the cavuto answer could flatline your heartbeat at the bottom of the hour. but first, president obama drilling for energy solutions in south america. but someone here says how that's starting to drill in our own backyard first.

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>> coming up, home prices still draining your wallet. good news, the u.s. doubling its oil from one place. the bad news it's not from where you would think. plus it may be the 100 year anniversary of the titanic

>> president obama down in colombia, south america today for a big powwow on trade, security and energy. the latin america summit coming one week after the president's wheeling and dealing with the leader of brazil. a country we're buying twice as much oil from as we did one year ago. amelia, you say stop making deal to buy other people's oil and start pumping one of our own. >> you start at home before you go out. i don't understand why he's not putting the energy right here. we have plenty in our backyard and we have businesses ready to

go and desperate to start doing oil here and he's -- look where eggs! why would you do that? even sales force. sales, start from your graund -- ground territory and then go out. >> jonas, you think this is an old fashioned way of looking at things. >> this is part of the problems of the president's policies. he thinks all business is good to encourage. we're selling 10 times as many iproducts to that country than years ago. that's the trade. they're pulling the stuff out of the ground. we used to do it 150 years ago. we're done with that and now we're a leader in technology, entertainment and a lot of other industries and that's what we should focus on and what these other countries, let's go through their oil. that's wonderful. brazil is the big energy country and they've done ethanol right, they've done wind right and oil right. they've got a lot left. we don't. we're doing other stuff. >> toby is laughing. go ahead. >> remember, we have about 400 billion barrels off shore and if we drill those wells the way that brazil is drilling and

others, then we have the safety that they would have. we would have our oil and it would add probably 1/2% to our gdp. now, you can't tell me, you know, you ricardo economist you that us not taking care of ourselves with the new technology isn't the way to go. >> i'm sorry, i got to get to everybody first. so suzanne, you say why not both, huh? >> yeah, why not both? i'm totally confused. we are not harmed at all if we buy oil from brazil. we are, by the way, producing much more oil domestically than we were five, six, seven years ago. in fact, thanks to obama continuing the bush policies, we are now getting 55% of our liquid fuel from domestic sources. this is just something we're doing well at and we're also going to other democratic allies. hey, that's a good place to buy your oil from. >> domestic sources. there's a lot more public sources to be had. aren't they? >> sure. get those, too.

i don't think you can fault obama for not trying hard enough. he's continued everything bush started and bush was a very aggressive oil man. >> what's your response? >> we can fault obama because he's delayed a lot of these and he insists as jonas said that we don't have enough oil resources. we look at all the oil resources that we have. we have over 200 years worth of supply. you talk about the continental shelf and you talk about anwar and talk about the green river in wyoming and then throw on oil shale right here in the continental u.s. on top of that, we have an abundant amount. we're just not doing it because the current administration is defending the green policies. >> all right. we got to go. thanks, guys. and thanks to amelia for joining us. we appreciate it. the anniversary of the titanic and the north korea rocket debacle. the connections that might make you money.

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>> predictions. gary b, you're up. >> brenda, i think the upcoming focus on the anniversary of the titanic ironically is going to spark an interest in cruising again. i like royal caribbean up 20% by the end of the year. >> toby, are you there? bull or bear? >> i love the logic but i don't like the stock. >> ok. jonas, your prediction? >> north koreans cannot get a missile off the ground. you need u.s. technology to pull that off. u.s. aerospace and defense. >> what do you think of that? >> i would bet on the u.s. aerospace industry every time. i'm actually bullish on that one. >> you are? ok. what is your prediction? >> i'm predicting owens and minor, a little company in health care that will do well no matter what the supreme court says in june. it has a 3% dividend yield. very good. >>