humidity and that's what it feels like. >> headache take your heat and add the index and you have the heat index. >> my dad is mowing the lawn already. >> got to do it now. >> drink water, dad. >> see you tomorrow. >> stay cool. >> see you on the after the show show at foxnews.com. >> another job shock, the dow tanking as unemployment sticks at 8.2% in june, but only 80,000 new jobs created, that's not all. manufacturing shrinking. retail sales reeling, the service sector slowing, forget all of the double dip talk are we already knee deep in a new recession? hi, everyone, i'm brenda buttner, this is bulls and bears. >> we've got tobin smith, gary b smith, jonas max ferris along with todd shoem berger and susan, everybody, todd,

are we already in a new recession. >> yes, we are, brenda, for everything you mentioned above and look where is the catalyst to pull us out of it. right now things are bad, dire, sentiment is down and consumer confidence that's down. you can take your pick, the house balance sheet that's estimated. we're in recession and never got out of the last one and it's going to continue for some time. >> brenda: toby you're near silicon valley and things look different. >> the world has fallen and never gets up and misses a couple of parts here. and we're not in good shape and whether it's a recession or not, it feels like a recession, the energy belt, god blows, new york, et cetera, are not. if you look at the labor report almost 6% of jobs came from business services and of that, about half were temporary jobs, so, guess

what? the biggest i've ever seen, people if they're going to hire are going to hire with temps because they don't know what the costs are going to be in six months and that's the thing that has me worried. >> brenda: gary b, what does history show us about back to back recessions? >> well, i looked at all the recessions for the la 60 years, because, that's the kind of exciting guy i am. [laughter] >> and i know. >> and especially, especially, fascinating stuff going on, in the house olds. and we've never seen a double dip recession, brenda, unless unemployment hits the peak of the previous recession. total unemployment. including those people stopped looking for work, et cetera, et cetera, 16%, which of course is extraordinarily high. how we're down off a peak and saw the unemployment figure friday, 8.2% and translates into 13% or so, we could go back up there. you know, i mean, todd makes the doom and gloom case for

certain. and my gut tells me we're just going to limp alongside ways and we won't get there. therefore, there there will not be a double dip recession. >> susan, a slow recovery or an actual recession? >> it's not time yet. because there's a difference between slow growth and we still could have growth versus a stalled economy versus an actual recession so we're a way away from an absolutely recession. we have slow growth, it's come up and down, and let's not forget, we've had 28 straight months of job growth in the private sector and i know et cetera not where he wants it to be, but there are things looking good and construction is continuing to be a slight strong spot and our housing demands come back and there are small signs of light on the horizon there. >> well, you know, i don't really care about the official definition of recession, which is consecutive borders of negative growth. if it feels like a recession, people will not be spng. jonas, is it that bad?

>> well, apparently todd doesn't care about the officially definition of a recession either. and telling the opposite of soviet economic people, always a good time. and and there's been there a long time, but it's sluggish given that we're running an art artificially low. and a lot of people, including myself, and the other tax cuts expire. we need the economy stronger than this going into eventually tax increases and we will go into recession and it's not here yet. and don't pull the panic button yet. todd, but it is all about jobs, isn't it? because without jobs, people don't have money, they don't have confidence, they're not going to spend. consumer spending is what fuels a recovery. >> that's right. >> we're not getting the jobs that we need. >> not only that, listen, 70% of all the jobs created in this country are of the low income variety. jobs in hospitality, retail,

leisure, they're fine, but not going to sustain the country. when you see a growth rate that's dropping and continues to get lower and household balance sheets, that's estimated, higher food costs, sentiment is poor, i mean, this is going to continue, guys, and it's not ending soon. i hate to be doom and gloom for fox viewers and you guys, you know, i'm right. >> toby-- >> well, look it, todd, just a couple of ways, the issue going it make the point, how would we get the growth? you realize we have to have 325,000 jobs a month, for the next three months. >> excuse me, for the next three years, to get to you know, 6% where everybody thinks a recovery is going to be. and frankly after all the bad karma and the horrible things that happened in our economy and finance, et cetera, we are not getting there, unless we

were to have a grand slam in november, and get all the growth people back and if you're betting on that, maybe you're excited. so keep betting we're not going to get there. >> where is the catalyst? you're not going to get it this year, not going to get it next year, and-- >> gary b, what could turn the economy around? what could bring us into a stronger recovery? >> well, think about it, brenda, think what turned-- didn't really turn the economy, accelerated the economy that no one saw coming last go round. oh, my gosh, almost 20 years ago was the dawn of the internet. no one said five years from now, whatever it was 1989 there's going to be an internet, a tech.com, there's going to be a google. no one saw that coming. i'm sorry, todd you can't extrapolate the future, from the past. there could be nanotechnology, health care could take off. the las time you were on and we were discussing a fallout

shelter and-- (laughter) >> i think there could be some good things. >> and don't forget, there was some good news for consumers in this report, and you know, average hourly wages went up a little bit and we're seeing gas prices come down so there will be a little bit of relief especially into the summer months and people do a lot of driving and you will see some things starting to get better and look at manufacturing jobs, ooh enthough there has been a very, very only on the market decline, we've added 500,000 new manufacturing jobs and in this economy, that's a huge number. so, to have a little bit of a pullback is not the end of the world. >>, but, you did mention that really internationally, there are some things that are not under our control, and that could be the thing that really does push us into a recession. >> we can't make europe not stink they've got their own debt policy and dead tax policies, and china is slowing. >> if we were in a stronger

position, we would have more for the leading exports of those countries, it's going to be a problem. even if we were to get the second recession, the last time the recessions started in reagan administration, started the british stock market boom the next 20 years and get out of that-- the scenario, come on, jonas, if you're a student of history you know something, think about it didn't have the regular leagueses that we do know, the tax regulations, and the fiscal cliff. look, guys, the facts here, entirely different times 20 years ago and gary b, talks about nanotechnology and that's when there were entrepreneurs, and people are villains if this he start their own businesses now. >> and tell me, tell me one business or in a business owner that's watching the show to write in, i want to know who is actual there actually able to start a business without the regulations and worry about extra taxes and

actually hiring, i don't think they're out there. >> and this is easier to raise money as a small business? >> i spoke to about 2500 of them today, all right? en they have not enough employees, not enough time, they have not enough resources because they're growing like lightning. so, don't throw all the economy in the toilet because we have certain parts that are absolutely in desperate shape. and really, what you're saying is it's a political statement. you think regime change everything will get rosie, we could have all the regime change we want and we're not going to get that rosie because it takes time to get out of the hole we've dug in. and it's-- >> give todd the last word. >> going forward it's about economics, the numbers are not there and the sentiment is poor and yes, that's why we're currently in a recession. >> brenda: and todd is going to stock up on spam and get ready with the fallout shelter. we appreciate it. coming up, oh, joe. >> those so-called job

creators who make everything okay for the rest of us. >> brenda: with a did vice-president mean by the so-called job creators? neil plays the tape and you decide at the bottom of the hour, first, this may make you hotter than it is outside. the u.n. pushing a global tax to push its global warming agenda. if you're cold hard cash at risk? going webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's anothereason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. ♪

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>> and good morning to all of you, i'm jamie colby you're at america's news headquarters and right now, there is a scorching heatwave that's gripping much of our nation and making its way to the northeast today. trust me. temperatures are 100 or higher and in cities including philadelphia and new york, and there are heat warnings and watches all over the heartland. and to make matters worse, nearly half a million people are still without power and air conditioning after last week's storms. at least 46 heat related deaths are being reported. let's go overseas now, libya's

making a major milestone and they're voting in the nation's first democratic election in more than 50 years, women, men, young and old, casting their ballots nearly a year after dictator gaddafi was ousted in an n.a.t.o.-backed ousting. and more it breaking out in that country. i'm jamie colby, keep is here on the fox news channel. >> brenda: from heatwave to a bunch of hot air. the united nations calling for a global tax to fight things like global warming. gary b, you say the global tax could cause a global meltdown? >> well, brenda, look, the u.n. wants to go in and tax millionaires and billionaires and the u.n. may be the only thaun that makes our own government look efficient. for the last 20, 30 years, accomplished almost nothing except for corruption.

and the fact is that the last ten years or so, even though carbon dioxide emissions increased, forget about that, let's say there is global warming, science has not come up with a way to funnel this money to solve it. going out and taxing job creators, taking wealth and transferring it to some other ludicrous organization who doesn't have a clue to solve it. that's what you get with the u.n. >> brenda: well, susan, gary b is wishy-washy on this. >> clearly. so, you know, this is just another example of the multi-lateral agencies, imf, the u.n., they're having budget problems and donor countries are strapped at home and having problems like everyone else is, they're short on funds and put out the report, hey, we're only going places to get money sent to us. it's a shame and everybody needs to solve their own problems and figure out how to pay their own u.n. dues, this

isn't the right way to go about it and there are places where it could make sense to have countries working in concert. if everybody does a carbon tax and you don't have forum shopping, and this isn't-- >> okay, toby, you billionaire, you want to pay someone to fight global warming? >> forget about-- gary's point aside here, but here is the reality. firstoff, 400 billion a year of capital would be extracted out of the productive world, and gone into the nonproductive world and that would mean economically would absolutely be at the margin a disaster and secondly, we know from africa, after a trillion dollars, look how much we've gotten there. no, no, if a trillion doesn't work, well, then 4 trillion is really going to work and now, we're the creating brand new billionaires and they're the ne new-- but this is going to be like, graph 101, the golden vain from every corrupt dude out there.

>> brenda: i've got to go to the smart boy, jonas. >> they're not the irs, can't tax anything, just a recommendation. >> brenda: and can hardly do anything. >> and all they're saying, all the countries that offered aid to other countries, but then renege on the payments because they've got their own problems at home. and not talking about greece or their countries, but saying, got to come up with a way to pay for that, but a forced tax because you're not getting the countries in aid. that's a legitimate concern, and loosely, you know, the concept that we're going to some day need global taxes. and our country, they have singapore to avoid our taxes and get together and have the fixed tax rate. >> and going to other countries and new taxes. >> and the global tax-- ments hey, why could we-- first of all, you have a universal tax code that we can't even understand a domestic tax codement and gary

b says, look, there is no scientific proof of any of this global warming right now. what are we going to do. what are you going to solve? and it's another wealth redistribution scheme, all it is. >> brenda: all right. thanks a ton. a new government plan in the works to seize mortgages of troubled home owners would at have any hopes for a housing recovery? the debate next. [ buzz ] off to work! did you know honey nut cheerios is america's favorite cereal? oh, you're good! hey, did you know that honey nut cheerios is... oh you too! ooh, hey america's favorite cereais... honey nut cheerios ok then off to iceland!

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using >> did you hear about the latest foreclosure rescue plan. using eminent domain and then what the home owners say in the house they pay back the government a lower amount. some say it will help the housing market. but toby, you say? >> insane! i mean, remember, let's go back to economics 101. so if you're a mortgage lender, you take risks and you have the borrowed risk, will they pay you back, and the home value. here is another risk. if you make a loan and they're going to blow that up and give it to someone else. would you add another level risk into a tight market. rates will go up and that's absolute. right now, in most of the united states to get a home owner that qualifies, it's incredibly tough and this would kill the housing recovery. >> gary b. is this another bailout? >> exactly. what it is, you have another government entity here, this case not the federal, but at a

lower level, it is the state or local level, going in and propping up the housing market. and that's what it is. so you're borrowing and the state's got to get the money from somewhere. they go out and borrow the money, whether it's bond or higher taxes or something like that and they subsidize these homes that should be under foreclosure. the only way that can solve the housing crisis, as painful as it is, i understand that, is by letting prices drop to where people want to buy them. you can't sell your house for 100,000, you have to sell for 80,000, if not 80, then 40, yes. it's a tough, bitter pill to swallow, the only thing that's going to get us out of it. >> and the only other issue-- >> they're bringing in private investors to subsidize it. they want to bring it down to market value. i love this plan, but the idea they're going to get people back into the homes at something looks more like market value and they're having judges come in and determine the fair market

value, but the idea, can you start to clear out the market because it's overpriced. during the light of the crisis people were saying let's get the bulldozers out. is this really as bad as toby and gary b are making it out, jonas? >> well, when you hear the words eminent domain, it's scary because especially because-- but i will say some of the areas are so underwater, and so much negative equity in the homes in las vegas and southern california there's almost no solution in this, and not to force the hand of any lenders who want a piece of that mortgage and what's going to happen, they'll be tearing them down and another eminent domain so i don't think it's designed the way it should be, but ultimately there's going to be a hand going to have to come out and say, you're taking 200 grand on this 500,000 mortgage and you're getting a new mortgage and out of this house, otherwise they'll foreclose and the resale and some of the prices go down more and as far

as toby makes a good point, and tell you in the first-- >> and at a good point. there is little private lending, it's government backed loans and as if they don't care what happens. >> so anynas says he's got a hand-- >> look, they have to wore borrow money and proves why government officials are not smart businessmen, they are going to take borrowed money and find the appreciating asset. we're a full generation from the housing sector recovering, guys, i hate to play in scenario, it's true. they'll continue to appreciate. >> that's your middle name. isn't it, doom and gloom? >> you do, you do. and thanks, guys. thanks to susan for joining us. >> the best names for the second half of 2012, and who was saying you could be making a 40% return by the time the ball drops. [ male announcer ] let's say you need to take care of legal matters. wouldn't it be nice if there was an easier,

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>> predictions, gary b, let's go. >> i like mcdonald's, they own mcdonald's and i think it's unfairly beaten down because european stuff. >> jonas, what do you think about that. >> it's going to be a drag on mcdonald's. >> brenda: all right. toby, your prediction? >> all right. one more bite at the apple this year, a little down turn because everybody's getting ready for the fourth quarter. new tv, new phone, new ipod. and back to $700 the end of the year. >> bull or bear. >> bear, new ipad is going to take it down jp morgan, second chance to get into jp morgan and by the end of the year. >> brenda: gary b, bull or bear? >> bear. that sums it up for me. >> brenda: todd, your prediction. >> because we're in a recession right now, everybody is selling their home and losing everything, go to easy corp., the easy pawn people, 40% by new year. >> brenda: