is till still in the top five. that is it for tonight. thank you so much for joining us. i'm juan williams and bill will be back on monday. please lebanon, the spin stops right here because we are looking out for you! sclees tonight with 116 days until americans head to the polls we take stock of 2012 race to the white house with the help of frank luntz we'll make an hour long focus group comprised of political commentators and businessmen and we'll take look at some of the campaign ads and the message they have so far. and to separate fact from fiction and tell us what is resonating with you the voters. we begin tonight and welcome all of you.

before we get started. we have some of the best brightest minds here tonight. let's start with two ads that is resonating. one an anti-obama ad and another an anti-romney ad. >> the one that is anti-obama, the viewers think it's a pro obama ad. you can see the democratic line go up but this is exactly what i want. then they find out it's not what they wanted at all. >> we will not take a dime from washington lobbyists are special interest pacs. they will not fund my white house. we'll change. >> "new york times" sure seems at odds with that. >> and people that are working on obama's transition time or who have accepted jobs in the white house. >> i am going tell people in

washington their days are over. they will not work in my white house. >> it's just a litany of people that raised so much money. >> president obama hasn't made a token effort to make it more transparent. it was all a lie in order to get elected. >> sean: another just to get elected. >> sean: let's do a show on this. show of hands. who do you think was an effective ad. everybody. why was it effective? >> two reasons, if you want to get an obama voter to vote for you have to convince to them there is a reason to listen. all this anti obama stuff, obama's people don't listen to it. they turn it off. secondly it's not romney attacking. >> sean: jennifer stefano you

like that ad? >> i liked it for a number of reasons. we used the president's own words, it's very important to not make it about personalities. we took the president's own words and own promises and showed how he broke them. we showed it shown a media. >> sean: fox business, what do you think. >> the president came into office there was so much excitement and high hopes for him. across the board in a bipartisan way and the sent immaterial has changed. look at the economy and look at the market. >> sean: senator, good to see you. it's fascinating to me that the president made a lot of comments cut the deficit in half. go line by line. transparency, eliminate earmarks all these things and the economy hasn't turned around. how big of a credibility problem does he have. his promises were lofty back in

2008? >> i think you put your finger on it. this was effective. my guess is the ads will cancel each other out and voters will decide the election who is going to solve the economy going forward. >> sean: it's harder for obama to make that case because he already had four years? >> any time you are the incumbent you are judged on you. the recent job figures is not good. >> independents have rejected. they are looking at honesty and integrity. that ad shows that what obama has said is not what he meant. >> my point simply both sides are going to nuke each other and they are going cancel each other

unfortunately regardless at the end of the day it will discredit them. >> what is powerful about this, mitt romney's own words. let's roll the tape. >> frustrations of people, my friendly. >> like to be able to fire people to provide services. >> i was a severely conservative republican governor. >> overturn roe v. wade. >> planned parenthood, we'll get rid of that. >> and it insures employers can opt out if they have moral objections. >> mitt romney became the president of the united states you are convinced he would follow through with the reductions? >> yes. >> it's an excellent piece of work.

>> i was a severely conservative republican governor. >> frank looked at that and i want to get your take? >> those are not your highest numbers by a stretch. how many people think it was effective. >> we're talking about the independents deciding the election. you have seen the politics of envy and seen they get that more than a it will cal voters are not going judge either but they are going nuke each other with these ads. measures are more aware politically and they are looking at the numbers and economy and context. >> sean: let me ask you, frank, you have done adss for us. we have had numbers in the 90s, 95 sometimes. those were in the 60s.

a lot lower than what we are used to. >> i think the last three days in ohio. i will tell you that is ground zero for american politics. when it's the candidates' words themselves, even taken out of context, that is credible. >> even if the 60s when you have shown us ads that resonated so well in the '90s? >> because it changed. that did change people's point of view. >> sean: go ahead. >> why would anybody care about that. paul ryan wants to follow through the plan. >> that was the weakest part of the ad. it was strong but severely conservative but also let detroit go bankrupt. if he had said, gm, chrysler, when you say detroit, its city.

>> we know he had another plan for detroit. this is what you were saying, they cancel sort of each other. deneen borelli, do you think it's effective or it always come back to that. will it resonate? >> americans want answers and they want results. we don't want to see the race card, the war on women, that is all a distraction, a grand distraction for what we are witnessing. high unemployment rates. they don't want to go on food stamps with commercials they are running for more people to get on food stamps. they don't like obamacare. there is a push back of big government which is reducing our liberty and this is what the american people are looking at. >> sean: let me get billy in here quick. the great american, voice of middle america in cincinnati, ohio, swing states. >> we have been inundated with commercials.

i think the first ad was an anti-obamacare, it was truthful and the other ad i don't think is playing all over ohio is going to be effective. i live a little part of ohio. they are the ones that gave bush 140,000 votes and zero in 2004. right now to be honest with you especially, sean, ohioans are not excited about romney at all. i wish they were. i was there in 92, 96. >> i was with you. >> and you and i loved bush but there is no heart with romney right now. >> sean: just a quick yes or no or now. would rob port man help? >> no. >> ohio is coal state. we have a lot of coal jobs that are going away because of regulations from the epa. so if romney can talk about that and talk about how he is going to do away with these

regulations, bring the jobs back to these coal states because those are battlegrounds, especially in ohio, i think it would be a great thing to do. >> southeast ohio, that is where ted strickland was elected. those are details. he is running a campaign in coal country about west virginia issues but that is going to take votes away from obama. >> sean: we have to take a break. i promise we'll get everybody in. good to see you and everybody else that is here. also coming up, he can't run on his record. he is going after romney's record. president obama's attacks about bain capital have proved to be totally false. we'll have more of our group when we return. ool if we took the nissan altima and reimagined nearly everything in it? gave it greater horsepower and best in class 38 mpg highway...

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guts. glory. ram. >>. >> sean: now governor mitt romney's at bain capital has been the weapon of choice for obama campaign. now it looks like the strategy is backfiring as it's given the romney folks once again showcase the president's dismal record. we continued with frank luntz. this bain capital attack, there is new ad by the obama campaign and we'll get everybody's reaction. >> out of blue one day, we were told to build a 30-foot stage,

gather the guys and we built that 30-foot stage not knowing what it was for. days later, all three shifts were told to assemble in the warehouse. a group of people walked out on to that stage and told us that the plant is now closed. all of you are fired. i looked both ways. i looked at the crowd. we all just lost our jobs. we don't have an income. mitt romney made over hundred million dollars by shutting down our planted and devastated our lives. turns out that when we built that stage, it was like building my own coffin. it just made me sick. >> i show that ad. the group was stunned. they didn't say a word.

i tried to generate a conversation. they would not speak. they were upset. it connected to them for the first time. up until now, bain attacks but in that ad it does work. >> ed rollins you have been around many campaign in your life. there is another side of the story. bill clinton, ed rendell, harold ford, jr. has said get off the bain attack wagon. interestingly bain created staples. do you think the one ad needs to be countered? >> i always believe it needs to be countered. this is the best ad they have run for two reasons, he gives a credible person there who is working that people can relate to that are telling these stories. the whole idea of bain capital and the premise that romney has laid out is that i know how to create jobs, how to basically get people back to work. this goes counter to that. then you throw in he made a lot

of money. you can try to explain it. >> sean: when we put it in context. >> you don't get to put it in context. >> sean: about there is narrative against president obama. we have fewer americans working today than when he took office. >> bottom line, he can't put leadership in his portfolio, but what he can do and they are going to try to make romney an unacceptable alternative. you take away his bain credential and then i attack him on governorship and paint him as part of rich. >> sean: you've been in presidential campaigns. could the same thing not be done in reversion. somebody who under the romney, under the obama economic fiasco has lost their job and they feel the same way.

>> sure, absolutely. >> you have to remind people how bad he has been as president. the first ad with the credibility issue, he is not telling you the truth about lobbyists. people know he hasn't been a good president. he is still popular among his base but you raise other issues, he is not honest then you start to put together a campaign strategy. you mandating lot of high profile democrats, romney administration when they first came out with these ads. i think they are pulling polls in some swing states, especially factory workers. working class folks without a college degree. this ad is effective against those folks. despite the fact that ed rendell and corey booker don't like it. certain swing states it's making a difference. >> people are undecided voters and romney campaign went up seven or eight states rebutting

the bain attack. i do think it's effective but their polling shows that they are responding to this ad. otherwise they won't be wasting money on it in nine states. >> sean: one thing the president ran a very different campaign back in 2008, hope and change and he is going to bring the country together. he has lectured the country many times about tone and civility and he goes on attack, war on women, war on dogs, war on bain. >> between the guy that ran for president and what he has done. if you want to win you have to draw a distinction who he advertised himself as and who he has been. with respect to the ads, nothing is more powerful than the voice of a regular people. you need to put regular people in these ads who have been affected by these policies. not politicians, not outsiders but regular americans and that will work on both sides.

>> sean: so the best campaign ad says using the candidate in his own words and regular people that have been impacted by policy. >> there is an antidote and all the money that has gone to china and all the outsourcing of jobs of stimulus and people that are not working because the president is not fixed economy. >> paid by for by tax dollars. >> he has assumed you have not gone to any source of information. americans are looking at other sources of information on both candidates. >> there is a multiplier effect whether you do romney. they are out pitching stories about bain and it's enticing story. bain firings all these people and romney walks out with millions. let me tell you when you have the mainstream media multiplying

the effect of that it's very telling. >> and somebody on conference call, mitt romney may have worked longer and may be guilty of a felony. >> sometimes it gets out of hand but there are legitimate story being written about bain. >> there is also success stories. it will be interesting to see if it gets picked up as well. we take a look at president's strange way courting the female vote. how the war on women, as plain as it gets as our special edition of hannity continues.

>>. >> sean: a crucial voting bloc for any candidate is women. but unemployment among females has skyrocketed since barack obama took office. will women turn to the president? let's see our focus group has to say. how many do you think will be a gender gap in this election? how many think the governor romney can close the gap? most of you.

senator? >> --. >> sean: this was done by american crossroads, this battle that the obama campaign is running. let's roll the tape. >> some people say there is war on women. we agree. its war being waged in our economy. under president obama the number of women living in poverty has skyrocketed, hit hardest in every poverty related category. 17 million women now in poverty. 800,000 more than when obama took office. 7.5 million in extreme poverty. four out of ten females in poverty. hispanic women is growing faster than any group to 25% and. >> job market in obama's economy women aren't faring, as well. during the so-called recovery

women have lost job even as men have a gained them. men have gained four times as men jobs as women and three-quarters of million are unemployed. poverty, that is not the change we voted for. there is a war on women in america. it's hurting real women every day. we just can't afford another four years. >> is that effective? >> absolutely. i still think one of the things you need to remember, the new polling that just came out showing how married women are more likely to be looking towards romney as opposed to single women who will more than likely go towards barack obama. that is very telling because remember what happened in the attack against ann romney. we have a lot of married women that was upset. >> he took money from bill maher, that drove me crazy. >> still that is one of those

things you are going to have many more married women who will be looking at romney as a strong possibility. remember, a lot of college graduates, more women are graduating from college than men these days. they outer in the job market and probably looking towards romney, as well. >> ladies, i know we cross the political span but there is one common truth, hell hath no fury like a women's scorn. republicans consistently have fought against women's issues during this cycle. you take contraception, reproductive rights. contraception and all these other issues. >> all issues are women's issues. that is insulting. first of all, polling shows

women's concern is the debt. it's not free birth control. how embarrassing that the president and his alleys allies for free abortions and it's insulting and rude. >> it doesn't matter if you are single woman or married woman, you are seeing inflation and you are paying taxes, for healthcare and bush tax cuts which are probably going to go up. >> also that julia campaign that the democrats ran that was so condescending that women would need cradle to the grave care. i think romney has the ability, i don't know he'll close it completely but think i he can gain a lot. >> sean: you also a reverend. i don't know where you stand on

the issue of birth control and abortion, is that how we now define women's rights? >> i think women define women's rights and they have defined women's rights and the gap, doesn't matter what side of the political spectrum. but i have worked in presidential campaigns. you are driven by the numbers. the numbers say there is a gender gap. it's based --. >> sean: what about the ad. all the women that have lost jobs. >> it's based on their perceptions of romney and obama. based on the perceptions that is why there is a gap. >> bottom line as i said early you are spinning yourself. it's 30-point gender gap to obama and romney and it has to do with issues you may not like but contraception and things that were mentioned.

>> that is not correct why is it that barack obama cannot get white men? we always talk about the women. >> two to one gap between single women. single women oftentimes don't have as much money. they are divorced. they are widowed and what romney has to show a sensitivity. the problem with the ad, it's too long. you basically got to make your points quickly. he can close this gap. if he doesn't close this gap. gender gap. men vote overwhelmingly republican. women vote more democratic. >> sean: we have to take a break. we haven't talked to james and we get to you. the president passed on the naacp convention but mitt romney

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or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial. >>. >> sean: african-americans overwhelmingly voted for obama in 2008 but unemployment now nearing 15% and the president deciding not to appear at naacp convention, is he losing that support. when mitt romney spoke to the naacp convention he did get a standing ovation in the end but there were scattered boos in between. >> i'm going eliminate ever nonessential program i can find including obamacare and tha i'm going to work and reform and

save -- >> if you want a president who will make things better in the african-american community you are looking at him. take a look. >> take a look. >> i think it's a fact that romney didn't win many votes in that room. i think it's a fact that blacks will vote overwhelmingly for obama or democratic. if you look at the numbers, the black percentage of the electorate, according to the exit polls went up from 11% in 2004 to 13% in 2008. john kerry got 88% of the black vote. barack obama got 95% but different of margin of about 5 million vote. so the improvement of the black voted accounted for more than half of obama's entire margin of victory. he needs to keep those numbers

high. >> with unemployment at 14.4% in the african-american community, youth unemployment is at 50%. hispanic, 11% unemployment. has he helped the community he got so much support from? >> no, he hasn't. romney staying on message, being himself, not being an al gore preaching, when they change their case, which insulting to any group. what romney did he put out a message of economic differences. you wanted to get free stuff from the government, voted for the other guy. he says that to everybody. one thing he says in the black naacp convention. the other thing black community will vote overwhelmingly for obama they have seen the failure of big government and public schools, more social services.

>> sean: 17% of the school population, we have to move along quick. >> tradition of the republican candidates in search of black votes should end. they should take their message that is important. [ talking over each other ] >> bypass the liberal establishment and take your message directly to the black community. >> sean: let me ask you. what do you think. the democratic party has had a monopoly on the african-american vote. it's been frustrating to me as a conservative. was it smart for governor romney to go there? >> i think it was smart, but i think he didn't want to take away his appeal among

african-americans. it's willingness to go before an audience that he knew wasn't going to be favorable says something about him. >> he clearly uses it as an opportunity. he was speaking to some of his supporters and he talked about the fact that the african-americans boo'd him because they just want free stuff. that is an opportunity he used to basically create a narrative. [ talking over each other ] >> very important fact here. what he said at the convention is what he said to the white audiences. is it racist to say to it blacks and not to racist to say it to whites. >> b still going to get 95% of the

african-american vote. >> 28% of white blue collar men support obama. talk about that gender and that racial gap. >> it does matter. it matters, the obama administration is worried about black turnout. voter registration from blacks is down. that explains the racial rhetoric out of eric holder they are worried about blacks staying home. >> sean: when we come back the administration calls it a penalty but highest court in the land clears things up and obamacare is in fact a tax. what will voters see when they go to the polls in november. we will ask are a special focus group when we come back. yes it's true. how is this possible? proper tire inflation, by using proper grades of oil,

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obamacare but maybe we should call it obama tax now the supreme court called it mandate tax and not a penalty. middle-class voters promised tax relief vote the president out of office? >> here is what drives me crazy on this issue. every one of his cabinet and they go out and say it's not a tax, george stephanopolous, no, it's not a tax, george. then he sends his own lawyers into the supreme court to argue that it's a tax. supreme court says it's a tax, no, it's still not a tax. does this go to the heart of his credibility? >> he says it's not a tax, his whole campaign in 2008 i'm not going to raise taxes for anybody under $250,000. now, the supreme court saying, you are taxing people and you are tax ago lot of people under $250,000. the big problem outside the supreme court that day, we with

a bunch of activists. we were out there and it felt like it was two or three years ago. >> sean: you had 30 seconds where you were all excited. it recharged the movement. i think it's probably the worst thing that could happen to obama. >> the question is, this romney think tank is missing the appoint. romney has not said the right thing yet. it's offered confusion and sigh loans this issue. >> sean: what confusion and silence? >> he said, when i was in massachusetts, it was a penalty. then he spoke and said it's a stated issue. romney is not clear on his message. >> how much is this tax going to cost us? >> couple weeks since the ruling i don't know how much this tax is going to cost us. that is huge problem because it

allows the president to deflect, it may be a tax. unless he defines it soon. >> you are in the business world. obama sold this at $900 billion. cbo came out with new numbers, $1.8 trillion. new numbers out just yesterday, $2.6 trillion. triple the estimated cost. >> he has good numbers on bain. he created more jobs. how come i'm not hearing about that? >> its simple way to do this. can we afford it. can we as taxpayers afford it? it's a simple question. >> rick santorum nailed it in the primary. mitt romney is not the proper messenger because the confusion over romney care.

bottom line, sean hannity can deliver the message because he never delivered the basis for the model. mitt romney -- excuse me. excuse me. you say its state issue but we're not having a dialogue. >> this is tax. supreme court has said it's a taxes, all taxes have to start with the house of representatives. this was a senate insured healthcare bell bil. what romney ought to say, i'm going to make the house of representatives vote on this tax issue, vote for to pay for it and it will never get through. >> sean: senator you were there, they used the reconciliation process after scott brown was 41st vote. and you had the corn husker kickback and louisiana purchase.

this is not how you pass a bill like this? >> it's not a preferred way to go. my best guess most people's attitudes are biakdz in the cake. they want to focus on the economy and deficit. >> sean: every poll, hundred out of hundred, americans want to repeal it. >> it's not popular but most people would like to focus on jobs. >> sean: we'll get back to you. could romney's vp choice make an impacted on voters? you'll find out as our very shy focus group continues. ♪

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>>. >> sean: there is 116 days until election day and we are nearing an announcement on governor romney's running mate. how important is his choice going to be at the ballot box? billy, cunningham, great american, who do you think it should be? >> i hope it's marco rubio because he brings new mexico and lots of help with colorado. if romney needs portman to win ohio he is not going to win the election anyway so i would say rubio. >> i think he would rally in the

field to the hispanics. i think he could bring a whole package for romney. >> if the romney campaign feels fairly confident to play it safe and choose portman or pawlenty or go with rice. that would be compelling soar. >> that was on the drudge report last night. >> i agree, condoleezza rice would be a compelling choice. i think rubio, his aspirations may be further out. >> who would be the best choice. >> condi. >> i would say he should pick a mate about dating and picking a mate. no flash and dash, meat and potatoes, we don't need a rock star. >> who should he pick? >> i will say -- i don't give

out names. i really think it has to be somebody, we have a lot of drama on this station. >> sean: i want names. >> ed, give me a name. >> we have no idea where she stands, she was decent secretary of state but that will be dragged for. i think marco rubio is a double force. we lost florida by 200,000 votes. he gives us a great future candidate. >> sean: will it be him? >> i don't know. >> i think i agree with you on that. and condi rice will drag up all the bush administration stuff they don't want to drag up. i think rob port man, because he is good. >> and play the traditional role of going on the attack? >> that is good question. but chris christie is capable of

on the attack. he would be very good, but too flashy and too risky. >> i think it's going to be pretty important, where is ron paul guy going to to go. does he bring in rand paul, probably not. he may go with portman. >> ron paul is not a factor he is not a factor. >> i wish he would resign to get general petraeus and condi if he picked because some of the old bush administration is qualified. >> i think probably go for pawlenty. i think he should go for rubio and extra if he wins, would like to see guliani. >> he will go with portedman but he should go for rubio for all the reasons. >> i think he'll go with

pawlenty. >> i go to portedman on the theory i think there is appetite for confidence as opposed to drama. >> sean: what is rubio's drama? >> rubio, he is young and untested. there is some questions about that. >> more experience than obama? >> that is low standard. [ laughter ] >> rubio, alan west or paul ryan. i think it will be portman or pawlenty or someone safe which he shouldn't do. >> normally the vice president pick actually matters but my ken important romney would be that he still feels very undefined for independent voters. this pick will need to define him. unfortunately i don't think port man does that. he needs someone who gives him a little flash. >> somebody that makes a lot of

gaffes like joe biden. >> i like rubio. he won't hurt the ticket. he may help with the swing states and hispanic voters. >> i want marco, ty choice. i think he would ask most to the ticket. i tend to agree with charles. he may play it safer. >> mark co-aruba year is the best -- marco rubio. >> but rob port man is best choice for romney right now knowing that ryan and rubio will some day be president of the united states. how many think that mitt romney will be the next president? how many think barack obama gets re-elected? wow, you scare me. so do you. interesting. great group tonight. frank, we love having you. some of the best and brightest minds in the country. some that is all the time w