show. it goes from my birth to my imminent death. *9 tickets -- the tickets are not cheap. >> back to you, greg. >> thank you, michael. good job. way to hang in. there lauren sivan, always a pleasure. bill schulz, paul mccurio and gavin mcginnes. >> bill: the o'reilly factor is on. tonight: >> you have got a business, you didn't build that. >> bill: debate raging across the nation about individual success and how much the achievers owe their country. carl rove and dr. austin goals buy will weigh in. >> i want people to know chicago welcomes immigrants. >> bill: mayor emanuel says he will defy the federal government and his friend president obama and not cooperate with immigration law. we will have a special report on that. also tonight, tattoos regret. and john stossel on gun

crimes. big debate on this one. caution, you are about to enter the no spin zone. the factor begins right now. hi, i'm bill o'reilly. thanks for watching us tonight. what duo your country? be big debate nationwide because president obama is putting forth affluent americans owe the country more than they are giving. last night the president said this about business people. >> if you have got a business, you didn't build that. somebody else made that happen. the internet didn't get invented on its own. government research created the internet. so then all the companies could make money off the internet. >> bill: apparently the president believes that the federal government should take more in taxes from wealthy americans and business owners because the feds make

individual success possible. that of course, is some outrage. here is my take. no man is an island. everybody needs help to develop their potential, that's true. however, individual achievement is just that. barack obama did not help me develop the factor. no federal agency helped me go to college. i paid my own way. i painted houses. federal government, nothing to do with it didn't give me the paint. didn't give me the brush. didn't help me up the ladder. yes, the founding fathers gave me freedom of speech to bloviate here, and i owe the debt of gratitude to my country for that. i am grateful and i am willing to pay 40% of my wages to caesar to the powers that be. 40%. president obama wants far more than that. and, i believe, that punishes achievement. also, that's absolutely not what the founding fathers had in mind. because of my personal success, i employ a lot of

people. because of the fox news channel's success, it provides jobs for thousands of americans. i pay my taxes. and i give millions of dollars to charity. i give back. not enough for president obama. not enough. he wants me and other high income folks to finance a massive redistribution of wealth in this country. right now the feds can't do that because the country owes $16 trillion, so the president has to raise taxes on those who have to finance his social justice programs. today the congressional budget office reports that the rich's 5% in this country pay 64% of all the federal income tax. the other 95% pick up 36% of the tax. -- tab. there is no question that affluent americans are paying their fair share in carrying a heavy load. most wealthy americans are not evading their responsibility. but sadly, that's not what the president is saying.

he wants to redistribute income on the backs of the achievers. and that's the truth and that's the memo. now for the top story tonight, reaction. joining us from chicago dr. austin goals bi. he currently teaches at the university university chicago. where am i going wrong, professor. >> it's good to see you again, bill. i think you went wrong perhaps in two places. the first is if you look at how much of their income, high income people are paying in taxes. it's not higher, it's actually dramatically lower. if you look at the 400 highest income people in the country, the amount of their income they are paying in taxes is about half of what it was 15 years ago. so, it wasn't class warfare when george bush cut these taxes and nor would it be class warfare to have those rates go back to what they were under clinton. >> bill: yeah, but there are a lot of other taxes that weren't in play as you know

under bill clinton. id ask my brain room staff to put together a list of new taxes that president obama has either passed or wants to pass. they are staggering. they are taxes that people don't know about. so, yes, you are right on othe income tax level, 36% is less than the 39% plus under president clinton. but the other taxes, property taxes, state taxes, all of the other taxes have zoomed up to a level and now the president wants to raise the social security tax. he wants to raise the capital gains tax. he wants to raise the tax on interest to the level of your income tax. he wants to do more taxation than any other time in the history of this country. >> no, see. >> bill: but even if the numbers -- even if you and i can't agree on the numbers, let's see if we can agree on the philosophy which is really what the debate is all about. >> okay. >> bill: the president wants social justice, redistributing

the wealth from the few to the many. correct? >> i don't think that's. no i don't think that's correct. >> bill: what does he want to do with all the money? he doesn't want to pay down the debt with it? he doesn't want to pay down the programs with it. >> that's what i was going to say what i thought was the seconds place where i thought you were going wrong in the original statement. in the president's view, when they -- having the discussion of the grand bargain, the president would like to have one trillion, about 25% of the long run fiscal consolidation come from new revenue granted from high income people. three quarters of that about 3 trillion come from spending cuts on discretionary on entitlements, et cetera. that we use that revenue as part of a means of addressing. >> put forth. >> 40 years. >> he has had three and a half

years there have been no attempt to reform the entitlements. no specific cuts in any of what you call discretionary spending. we just don't know what he would do. >> froze all the descrelingsary spending. >> bill: is he rolling the dice on the economy because his vision could very very well fail. if all of these things got passed the economy could collapse because the achiever basically saying i'm not going to invest any more money. i certainly wouldn't invest the level i am now. 40% hit on anything i make i'm pug it back and putting it in the caymans and switzerland or some place else. i'm not putting it in here. >> i know you say that, but when ronald reagan was the president. three quarters of the reagan administration was 50%. >> astute professor of economics. you know that no rich people paid that rate. that there were all kinds of tax dodges that you could get around and that were true into

the gifts, into 60's, into the 70s and into 80. >> lock how much he wants to cut them back. >> to broaden the base. i agree. >> 60 to 65% to state and local. >> no. no. >> all of the tariffs that come in for obama care are enormous. >> take the cap off the payroll tax my taxes go up another 5%. it's really insane to do that to people -- >> -- look how much of these -- how much of their income they are paying in taxes. it's not actually higher. congressional budget office the same report you were citing. >> right. >> show people are paying the lowest share of their income in taxes that they paid nor -- if the percentage of 5% are handling 65% of the tax

burden, come on. >> that's only the income tax. that he was not counting the penalty tax. >> on their kahunas, proposals that could go sky high across the board. i'm bloog at 60%, professor. i'm not going to do it. i will retire. >> no. we want you in chicago. if you want to leave -- >> bill: all right, professor, one last question. i believe president obama is a sincere man. i believe that he wants a much different type of capitalism in this country than we have had. am i wrong? >> from the last 8 years, yes. something different from that. not different than what we have had in the history of the country. >> bill: remember, the founding fathers didn't want a strong central government at all. and there was no income tax to the feds until the turn of the 20th century. all right, professor, it's always good to debate with you. thank you for taking the time.

next on the run down carl rove will weigh in. later, chicago, very tough handgun law yet the murder rate is through the roof. john stossel and i will

>> bill: taxes, jobs and political magness. obama campaign spent $100 million pounding mitt romney as a greedy rich guy. >> tax havens, offshore accounts tear interest. mitt romney has used every trick in the book. romney admits over the last two years he has paid less than 15% on taxes on 43 until in income. makes you wonder if some years he paid any taxes at all. we don't know because romney has just released just one full year of his tax returns and won't release anything before 2010. >> you know what? i have put out as much as we are going to put out. >> what is mitt romney hiding? >> bill: joining us now from washington is analysis karl rove. it all ties into what i was

talking to dr. goolsbee about. i really believe this is true. the democratic party and president obama have completely different idea of capitalism than what the country has had since its founding, that they want radical departure. you can put any labeling you want on it and trying to demonize romney as another rich, greedy guy. do you think it's going to be effective? >> well, we will see. you are right. let's take a couple of things that dr. goolsbee said who is actually a pretty good guy but on the wrong side of this particular issue. president obama has laid out a budget plan. that budget plan doesn't take the higher taxes and use it to reduce the deficit. in fact the congressional budget office and the president's own omb forecast under president obama's plan these additional fax taxes fund an additional branch of government and never fund -- it gets bigger. the second thing is

health. it's just, you know, we have got new taxes everywhere. dr. goolsbee. >> bill: surcharges on everything. that's what i wanted to get across to the doctor. he's to keep it in the range of income taxes and capital gains. we all know this is happening. the american public doesn't seem to be responding -- yes, there is outrage over the president saying if you're a successful business, you really didn't do it. i think he would probably take that comment back if he had to do it again because it just sounds callus and redick -- ridiculous. the american public doesn't seem to understand what's at stake here. a totally different direction for the economy of this country. >> well, you know what? i think they will by the end of this it campaign

particularly if the republicans and particularly if romney gives him that stark choice because, instinctively they get the sense that obama is a big government, turn it over to washington. remember this idea of private sector is doing fine. what i'm worried about is government, he said. i'm worried about state, local and federal government. >> here is why it's more than that everybody knows he is a big government democrat because that's what the democratic party stands for. okay? >> but is he a zeal lot. i don't say that in a bad way. i'm not saying that in the pejorative. he believes in his heart, in his mission he is on earth to take from those who have, you and me and give to those who don't. it's a robin hood to the nth degree. >> in the name of fairness. you go back and look at what he has written. >> justice, whatever you want to put on it. >> social justice. >> and by doing that, which a lot of people feel is noble, he cou

affluent and less successful parts of our society. i agree with you. very radical about t. >> bill: 5% are carrying 65%. you are already there. >> you are there. what do you want to make 5% do 90? >> yeah. and you will notice. >> bill: yes, yes. >> if he he had the guts to say that, but what is he doing is, he is talking about the general principle and not being specific. the question is what amount -- how much is the fair share of the people at the top? and is it good for our society to have the top 50% of wage

earners pay 97% of the tax burn and bottom 50 pay 3%? everybody ought to be in this thing. america has succeeded when everybody is in it. not when we keep putting a bigger part of the burden on a smaller amount. >> bill: success story near does the liberal constituency. they don't see america as a success story because you have public housing. have you people living in slums. you have people. >> don't see it as a success story. >> it's like iceland. i don't know whether you read my column about how president obama would love iceland. >> leveled the society out there. there are no mansions. i didn't see any mansions in iceland because they are not there. the government takes from anybody who has that level of income. i didn't see any slums. but there is no mansions,

either. >> well, and, look, there is no sense of economic progress and opportunity there. >> move here. >> the successful people, the entrepreneurs that the creative innovators go elsewhere. let me make one point, too. there is something incredibly dangerous to the country and president obama's tax proposal which is half the taxpayers who would pay more are small businesses, excuse me two thirds of the taxpayers who would pay more are small businesses and half the small business income in america would be taxed at higher rates. just at the point where we're counting on small business to lead the way. >> bill: when i talked to dr. goolsbee i said you are rolling the dice. you might bring everybody down. >> we will. why do you think -- why do we think we as a country have the most anemic economic recovery since world war ii. >> spending money we don't have. running up the deficit $4 billion a day. president is raising taxes and leaving uncertainty that even bigger tax increases are

coming. all those things are discouraging prosperity and innovation and competition and growth in america. that costs us jobs. >> bill: thanks very much. the mayor of chicago says blank you to his friend president obama. he is not going to enforce immigration law. and, later, is it legal on a bizarre george zimmerman accused of killing trayvon martin. we're co

>> bill: impact segment tonight, even while the city of chicago is under siege by gang killers. the mayor, former obama chief of staff rahm emanuel says he will no longer cooperate with federal immigration law. >> we are now going to be the first city to take the sanctuary city and push its values to make sure that not only if you apply for city services, your immigration status won't matter. but i want the police

department not -- nobody in the community to have any fear as it relates to the police department about immigration status. >> bill: all right, the mayor did say if criminal aliens are found he will cooperate but not with anybody else. joining us now from los angeles leslie marshall in for alan colmes tonight. here in the studio, the author of the big new best seller what the bleep just happened, monica crowley. now, image, very big buddies with president obama. he even referenced the president in his explanation here. this is the slippery slope because president obama did the dream act thing by ordering his ice department and the immigration officials not to deport certain crew. and then rahm image says you know what? i'm going to extend that to everybody in my city so that is the slippery slope and here we go. >> here is the box that rahm image put the president in. remember, when this administration sued arizona and other states that affected their own immigration laws that because the feds would not do their job in enforcing

the federal immigration laws, the argument that they made before the supreme court was, well, look, this is federal jurisdiction, we can't have states and communities free-lancing immigration policy. we can't have arizona doing their thing. we can't have utah doing their own thing or alabama doing their own thing. that argument seemed to prevail with the supreme court. now, you have got the city of chicago u the mayor, the former chief of staff saying we're going to during own thing. >> bill: you are making a very good point. the justice department under eric holder would then have to sue the city of chicago on the same basis that t sued the state of arizona. >> correct, correct. >> saying you can't make your own immigration laws. here is federal law. you need to cooperate with us. when you find an illegal alien we need to be notified. what do you bet that eric holder is going to do that? >> zero. because that would require some consistency from this administration which we have not seen. >> bill: leslie, if that's true, if the justice department is not going to sue the city of chicago for making its own immigration law, and they did sue arizona, that's

hypocrisy, is t not? >> i don't see chicago making a law. i hear rahm image making a statement about what he wants as mayor of the city of chicago to be. i have to say as a former resident of the city of chicago, i understand what the mayor is doing and why although i may not agree with t. when you have a 39% -- >> bill: waited, wait. do you agree with not turning in aliens, all right, unless they have a criminal rap sheet? do you agree with that? >> i believe that city in the place of chicago, a state like illinois. all of the 50 states in america need to cooperate with the federal government like monica said, i will agree with one thing -- i disagree with the mayor. >> bill: instead of saying i disagree with rahm image you launch into this thing that nobody understands. >> oh, come on. >> bill: she makes an interesting point. image is not passing a law. he is just saying i'm ordering my cops, just as president obama did, because president obama really disobeyed the law, too did he not?

he disobeyed the law. >> what image is did. >> is what image did on. >> he is pushing ordinance. >> if it were written down, then holder would have some splaining to do if he didn't. >> that's what he is trying to do. image wants. >> i think image is immanuel. they can't stop this mass murder epidemic down there. shaking bus boys around. they have guys dropping in the streets and 14-year-olds being gunned down. leslie, i'm surprised that you disagree with rahm immanuel who would love to see come to america and take our stuff. >> no. my family and i'm first generation second generation other side. came through the right door

and right channels and that's what all people should do. however, when we are looking at the criminal element, versus the noncriminal element. that is the federal government's position. that is ice's decision whether that person is going to be deported. >> no. it's the law on the books. >> bill: i have got to go, ladies. what bothers me about this is it's anarchy now. it's like anybody is going to do whatever they want to do. >> free for all. >> unfortunately the president set the tone. all right, ladies, thank you. as the president moves along this evening. tattoo regret. millions of americans have them. there is some remorse. we will tell what you is going on. is it legal on a bizarre allegation against george zimmerman and a woman who gets away with abandoning her mentally challenged d

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and majors in efficiency. so whatever they save, you save. hassle, time, paperwork, hair-tearing-out, and yes, especially dollars. esurance. insurance for the modern world. click or call. >> bill: chicago has one of the toughest handgun statutes in the country. handgun owners can't take the gun outside not even on your porch. murder is at a frightening rate. what's going on. here now is john stossel. i wanted to address this for you because you now are not for mandatory sentences for gun criminals where you were in the past. right? >> no. i used to be for gun laws. and now i don't think they work. and i was never for mandatory minimums. >> bill: never? >> never. >> bill: i believe in the second amendment and you do, too. >> yes. >> we both believe in the second amendment that americans have the right to bear arms for their own

protection. >> yes. >> it's not indians anymore or the british. now it's terrorists and gangsters. >> right. >> bill: still we have a right to bear arms. however, criminals, as we see in chicago are running wild with dangerous weapons. i say the solution to that problem is if you commit a crime. any crime burglary, robbery, rape, murder obviously. there is a mandatory beside the crime. so you have a gun in a robbery, you get two years for the robbery. you get seven years for the gun. because it's such a heavy threat to carry a loaded weapon. and you say? >> i say you are wrong because, a, you have no evidence where they have that it reduces crime. >> bill: i don't care about that. >> no study that shows that. >> shouldn't justice be punishing crime at the level it's shown at. >> who knows better what the situation was than the judge? >> bill: you are telling me you are going to leave it to

the discretion of the judge? >> yes. >> bill: is that what you are telling me? >> they heard from both sides rather that than you being a below hard in your studio. >> bill: are you little bo beep? i had to go on a national campaign to get child predator laws passed because the judges were giving these people probation. you are telling me the judges should be the last word on this? >> because a few judges do stupid things doesn't mean that the legislature should lock everybody up for a million years. in florida. >> bill: tell me what's wrong with this. i put a gun to your head and i take your wallet, all right? now, i'm convicted of both crimes. it's a loaded gun to your head. all right? they give me a year for taking your wallet. they give me seven years for having the loaded gun at your head. what is wrong with that? that seems -- >> -- nothing. >> bill: justice to me. >> if that's the judgment of the jury and the judge, fine. but when it's automatic, right now in florida you have a woman who is scared of her abusive husband. she has got a bad record, felonies in the past. she shoots the gun into the ceiling to scare him away.

last month she was sentenced to 20 years. there are all these cases. they apply to jessica's law, too. and megyn's law. >> bill: you can always find cases like that. >> cases on the other stuff. who knows more than that judge? >> bill: broad based, look. if you submit it to the jury and the jury finds the woman guilty. then i'm saying the woman is going to have to do the time. i don't think most juries would find the woman guilty of that i'm telling you mandatory. >> bill: they have no choice. >> bill: mandatories would cut this stuff down. they could get these guys off the street in chicago who are carrying. they go away a long long time. that's what we need to protect ourselves. go ahead, last word. >> the laws don't work. chicago has really tough gun laws and more gun crime. in phoenix. >> chicago doesn't have a sentencing. >> in phoenix, anyone can get a gun. carry it without a permit half as much gun crime. >> the people who do commit those crimes should pay a big price with guns.

>> bill: john stossel, everybody. when we come right back, disturbing new accusations against george zimmerman the shooter in the trayvon martin case. later, tattoo regret. stossel gets. this when the ink dries are you sorry? >> announcer: stop! living with hair loss, that is. losing your hair is no fun and no one wants to be bald, but there is hope. >> getting my hair back was the best thing that ever happened to me. >> i'm happy with the way i look now. >> i'm very excited about my hair. >> i feel beautiful. >> i love my hair. >> announcer: hair club offers all-proven hair loss solutions backed by our commitment to satisfaction guaranteed. if you're not 100% satisfied with the solution you choose, hair club will apply the purchase price to another proven hair loss solution or transplant more hair at no charge. >> and that was the best thing i've ever done. >> it looks good on me. >> announcer: call in the next five minutes to get your free brochure at no obligation. it will tell you everything you need to know about your hair loss problem, and it's free if you call now. >> i am more pleased than what i had even imagined. >> i at least look, i would say,

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>> bill: thanks for staying with us. three hot topics beginning

with the shooting of trayvon martin by george zimmerman. >> he would reach under the blankets to try to do things. i would try to push him off. he was bigger and stronger and older. he would put his hands under my pants and under my underwear. >> bill: that accusation unidentified woman slightly younger than zimmerman who claims he molested her when they were both children. here now attorneys and fox news analyst kimberly guilfoyle and lis wiehl. here is an accusation that hasn't been proven. >> nothing in court this woman tells it to the court. >> witness number nine. in florida it's called open discovery. whatever the. >> sunshine state. >> whatever the prosecutor gets goes to the defense it will never by the way be admitted into court. >> bill: the court of public opinion it's all over the internet. >> yes. >> and now everybody hears

this. >> that is true. >> bill: the woman isn't identified. >> witness number nine. where is the sunshine law when somebody makes an accusation like this? they cover them up but they can accuse anybody and anything? >> everything goes out in florida. >> no it doesn't go out. we don't know the name of the woman. >> we only know witness number 9. >> everything doesn't go out. >> not the name of the woman. >> the accuser duke lacrosse case. all of that we never knew the woman's identity until it was all over. >> rape victim. can i see that all right. 6-year-old and 8-year-old. >> the point is this should never come into evidence anyway. it has nothing. >> so out of line, the prosecutor's office should be ashamed i love prosecutors. this is highly objectionable. the defense attorney did make a motion to have this sealed. was denied by the court. i think the court should have sealed it as well. >> case or charges filed. this has come about some, you know, 10, 12 years later.

it's very inappropriate. highly prejudicial. >> disturbing. >> it's more than that. what rights does zimmerman or any other american have? >> you don't. if you are in florida. >> bill: in florida anybody can accuse anybody of anything and if the cops get it, even if there is no evidence,. >> it's unethical as well. >> going time peed his ability to have a fair trial and pick a jury. >> judge not to allow it in. >> he is wrong, too. >> bill: all right. you say it's not going to get in. >> it's not going to get in. >> bill: in illinois, guilfoyle. >> yes. >> bill: a woman left her mentally disabled daughter. >> right. >> bill: drove her to tennessee, drove her from illinois to tennessee. left her at a bar. >> yeah. >> bill: got away with it. >> it's really unbelievable what kind of conscience and soul does this woman have. eva is her name. dropped this daughter off at this bar. mentally disabled, cerebral

palsy. functioning of a small child. was unable to give her name or any details about where she came from. >> how old is this daughter. >> 19. that's the catch. >> bill: she is 19 years old. and she is in incapacitated pretty much. so the mother takes out of state from illinois to tennessee. >> the daughter was a burden. >> bill: dumps the daughter at a bar. takes off. the cops find the mother but no charges. >> because of the age. she is 19. >> bill: is that every state? >> unless she was hurt or injured, there are no charges that can be filed against the mom. >> except what do you think about a man act charge transporting across state lines for usually sexual purposes. if i were prosecuting this case i would look into that charge because she left her daughter, albeit 19, at a bar. what is going to happen to that girl. >> bill: i don't think you could get a conviction on it. what happens now to this girl. >> the problem she is has been turned over to the state authorities. >> bill: which state illinois or tennessee. >> in tennessee because she was found in that state. she is of age.

she is 19. the mom said oh i feel they have better services, department of child services. >> bill: i don't care what the mom says. >> foster care. >> bill: so the 19-year-old goes into a home. >> right. >> bill: where somebody will care for her. >> exactly. the mom has two or three other kids. >> how awful is that? >> bill: it's horrible. if this can happen in america. >> i would try a man act. >> bill: not going to do that. in another terrible case. a woman adopts a baby from russia, right? >> right, exactly. >> bill: then doesn't want the baby anymore. >> not a baby. a 7-year-old. >> bill: 7-year-old really a baby though. >> a young child. >> brings a child home. not happy with the child. the child is, according to her, disruptive, angry, fighting. doing all sorts of bad things. violent. she puts the kid back on a plane to russia and then here's the problem. >> bill: alone. >> alone. here is the problem. the court then says you have got to go for depositions.

you have got to talk about what happened. you have got -- state your case. she doesn't appear at court. she doesn't get deposed. she does nothing. >> bill: the court rules. >> the court says you owe 150,000ness child support. >> bill: to the child. >> to the child. that sounds excessive. >> the child is back in russia. >> the child was so traumatized after this whole experience he spent six weeks in a psychiatric hospital in russia. now he is in a a special home. >> the judge ordered $150,000 to the child the child is going to stay in russia now. >> until he is 18. >> bill: seems fair to me. again, in russia who is going to take care of the kid with 1 auto k somebody will do it? >> why didn't this woman stand up and say. >> because these women, these people don't have a conscience. they don't care. >> we live in an age of narcissism. >> we don't turn them back like a puppy. >> she didn't even.

>> she deserves what she got then. >> all right, ladies, thanks very much. charles krauthammer on deck. will rally. charles krauthammer will have a new poll on that after these messages.

>> bill: back of the book segment tonight. new poll from marist college says 74% of registered voters under the age of 30 support president obama. just 20% are romney people. joining us now from washington is charles krauthammer. before we get to the mafers college poll. 2% of blacks support romney. i think the number is 28% of hispanics. 20% of under 30. looks like the president is going to win in a landslide. >> well, not really. i think if you are going to

compare the turn-out. particularly among his strong constituencies like african-americans, like hispanics, and like the young it, will probably be depressed. look, particularly let's start with the young. you know, what do they know? that's why they are young. they don't have to know anything. they voted for obama in 2008 and now we have about the same ratios. it's the older people who have wisdom. i mean, the younger the embodiment of the idea of hope over experience and the older people, the ones over 60 particularly over 65, you know, remember that in 2008, they elected a charismatic conjurer who came out of nowhere and he gave them 8% unemployment. slowest recovery since the second world war and $5 trillion in debt. that leaves a residue. the oldered people who were pro-obama and now have buyer's remorse. but there will be a lower turn out among the young even though the ratio will probably remain the same. >> bill: it's not as trendy. >> their unemployment is

astronomical. those who swooned in the aisles, some of them are going to stay home because they know the reality of what obama wrought. >> bill: now, we were going to discuss this earlier but we didn't have time. in job creation, this is interesting. 80% of the jobs created under president obama have gone to men. yet, in the polls, single women support the president. and you know the president went on a big campaign to say he is, you know, there is a war on women by the republicans. you look at the stats the democratic party hasn't done anything. 80% of the jobs created go to men. yet, that doesn't seem to seep out in to voting land. >> well, there are two factors. number one in the recession, men disproportionately lost jobs. it was women who actually did better in the drawdown, in the loss of jobs. so, it's not surprising that

there is a surplus of men who get jobs back. although, this is a fairly surprisingly wide gap. but the second issue is that when talking about young women. remember, married women voted republic, traditionally young women vote democratic. and this is where the social issues, the free contraceptives. the idea of national healthcare, all of these things play in. and i think obama campaign has played that very well. look, his campaign is based on one idea. you go out and you try to seduce one ethnic or socioeconomic or gender constituency after another. because you can't run as a national candidate who has improved the country. so you go after african-americans, for hispanics you do the dream being a. by executive order. for students, you cut their loan rates in half. for unions, you give them all kinds of goodies. and for women you get them the free contraception. and the boogie man of if

republics get control of the supreme court they are going to somehow outlaw abortion. so awful these are traditional constituencies. that's where he went. he cannot make the appeal -- i'm the president of all americans and america is better off. if he does that he loses. >> okay. but, you know, with all of those groups that you mentioned, if he can galvanize those groups and they do turn out, he will win. >> well, i'm not sure. first of all, it's not necessarily a majority. i mean, we imagine white working class doesn't exist. it's a huge number and they go disproportionately republic. and, second, because of the overall effect economic policy. there will be a depressed turn-out of all of these constituencies that obama is trying to attack. >> bill: are you sure about that, charles? are you sure be able to rally them. >> i have no question among the young he has no chance of

sort of recreating the excitement the near hysteria he did in 2008. that's once in a lifetime. lightening in a bottle. that's over. >> bill: all right. now, final question. >> if the election were held tomorrow, tomorrow, who would win? >> obama. >> by a lot? >> it will be narrow. if he wins either now or november in your hypothetical, it will be a narrow win because he will eke it out with his constituencies. >> bill: why would he win tomorrow? >> because if you look at all the polls, averages 2 point edge in the popular vote. it's almost inconceivable that you would have that strong an excess in the overall vote. and lose in the electable college. i think that changes. remember, carter and reagan were very neck and neck until the last month, month and a half. i think all this negative stuff against romney has had

an effect of making people hesitant to switch from obama to romney. i think if romney humanizes hisself in the debates and does reasonably well the way reagan did in his debates and become acceptable to reach the threshold for president he wins. >> all right. >> i think that's likely to happen. >> bill: tattoo regret. what happens when the ink does not speak to you anymore? that is 60 seconds away.

>> the national geographic channel has started shooting the killing lincoln movie around vi. the film should be aired around president day's 2013. and killing lincoln by far this year's best selling nonfiction book. ten months on the best selling list. number five is coming sunday. thank you all very much. now the mail.

gary from north carolina. mike from belize. >> we did that in the past but the outsourcing controversy is really over the top. >> from contract. >> jeff robinson from texas. carol from springfield, illinois.