to get predictability. >> at&t stock. >> i think up 20%. >> gary b, bull or bear? >> i like verizon better if you're going in that space. >> and for the economy, yes or no, bull or bear? >> vaguely bullish. >> neil now. >> ♪ >> follow the money and follow history all the way to the layoffs? i'm neil cavuto, 101 days until the election, and the economy grew 1 1/2% in the latest quarter, the slowest pay for nearly a year, and some other numbers are also worth crunching. in nine of the past ten presidential elections the candidate leading in the gallup poll with 108 days left in the race has won that race. the man leading in that poll right now, neither.

it's neither. what's this adding up to, to ben stein, charles payne, dagen mcdowell, along with julian epstein and charlie gasperino. >> mitt is start to go come on strong with in the money category. when obama was raising more money than hillary, who, what, how. they're saying it's bush's fault, tsunami's fault. did you know that tom cruise and katie holmes broke up? and everything under the sun and they're not buying it. >> you know, if not for obama, that marriage would be okay. what do you make of that, ben stein, not the katie holmes-- >> i studied a lot of years at universities, i had no idea na tom cruise had an affect on the stock market.

i want to thank charles for that. i think it's a close race and i don't think that romney is a particularly exciting candidate, but people are disgusted with the fact that mr. obama promised so much and delivered nothing, nothing. >> julian, the political, the polls have been close, and tight ones and carter reagan comes to mind and then we know they broke loose for reagan, right, almost the day before the election. can you see a phenomena like that for either candidate? >> no, and i don't think the normal practice of the challenger getting the undecides is going to occur this time. i mean, look, if you look the at the polls of polls, look at what nate silver has done, right out of 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 election most of the political handicap this for obama, and 247 votes and romney 191. much easier path to electoral

victory for obama, look at states like ohio, florida, nevada, colorado, obama has ahead or continues to be ahead. a much easier path, in addition, as you pointed out, neil, gallup has it even today, even though other polls have him ahead. the likability factors the polesters started looking at and obama's advantage on things like likability, people believe a 1 to 2% impact potentially. >> i don't know, i think at this point the economy gets much worse, you know, i don't think likability thing is going to be enough. >> but if you look at what happened the other day thursday in london, all, these unpredictable things, romney was a national embarrassment. >> he really was. >> i think that people do care about how we are represented internationally, do care about that. >> i think the last point-- >> quickly, what they also

care about is what happened friday, 1.5% gdp growth, look at the battle ground states and what mentioned, obama seems to be marginally. >> they're all within-- >> one statistic that he is losing on big is economic growth and unemployment, i don't know if you could win a reelection, you know, julian knows more about this stuff than me, with 1% economic growth. that's a huge hill to go up. >>en you know, what were you going to say. >> i was going to say, if everything is going your way, the economy is better than the media is presenting it, that's a view of the white house, you're in a race of your life at this stage and an argument, given the corporate reports that's going to get worse, so, that's a sticky position to be in. >> and it's also tricky for governor romney, you would think with the economy as lousy as it is, whether you're talking about gas prices, economic growth, the housing

market, and very volumable stock market, you'd think he'd be in better shape, but, many people suggest that mitt romney is keeping his powder dry, whether it's his money that he's raised, and saving it to spend on ads later, that he's saving his message on the economy so it's more effective, the closer we get to the convention, and then the election. but he's going to need to let -- he needs to define himself and stop the obama campaign from defining him, because-- >> they think those numbers like gdp is going to propel them. i don't believe that, but maybe, start to think is if you think about tgdp fell from 2% to 1.4, a huge decline. we're moving it a double dip. and i don't think at that-- >> and here is what's interesting, look at the market response to this-- charles, on this point, that we are such, if the economic recovery right now, the markets rates, when it's 1 1/2%, not the feared

whispered number 1%, we're grateful if a number doesn't suck as much. >> you could argue at that we've been celebrating mediocrity for four years now. >> a career on it. >> i think to julian's point, that's what people decide going to the voting booth. this is a nice guy, but the economy sucks, it boils down to that. >> the i don't think the nice guy thing is going to work, julian. >> i don't think the nice guy thing is, but-- >> it matters? >> no, likability is a factor and it's showing up in the polling, but i think charles is right. if the gdp is the the most disappointing at 1.5, got to be higher than that, but we had a disappointing jobs report and just to look at this from a political thing, a disappointing jobs report in july '06 and obama 47% approval and in most of the polls, obama is ahead of romney. >> can obama take advantage and nobody seems to understand

what romney has the policy with. >> and president bush at 48 1/2%, at this exactly point. he got reelected and john kerry with numbers like that. can you see it play out that the president does. >> i think the president will be reelect adden i think it's largely economic numbers, but largely the voting blocks. he is very he, very hard to defeat a president who gets an enormous percentage of the african-american vote consistently across the country, the union management and that no matter what the economy is like, and very, very hard to climb up that hill. >> and don't discount-- >> the hispanic vote. >> don't discount the debate. mr. obama has not debated in four years and mr. romney had a lot of practice. >> the african-american vote and the hispanic vote are very important, but the folks that aren't working in greater proportion than everybody else and i'll tell you that, that

spells to me lack of-- >> no, it will be the vote, it will be the turnout. >> the turnout is not the same. you drive around new york city, i can't believe how few obama bumper stickers, when i sits in traffic. four years ago, there were a lot of them and-- >> very good point. >> republicans according to the polls, the wall street journal, the republican base seems more excited this cycle than the democrats are. >> no, i think, i think enthusiasm is actually favors the democrats right now. and on the minority vote, remember the minority vote is-- >> julian, what are you looking the at? i'm not saying the republicans aren't inthewesed with mitt romney, they hate your guy a lot more.rats are much, much more-- are much shall much more favorable to obama than republicans to obama. >> when they did the senate surveys, it was like, 8 out of 10 republicans were going nuts for romney, even though they might not have flipped over

romney, they hated the president so much. >> it was under six out of ten for democrats. >> that was six it ten woks ago those surveys, i think the recent-- >> that was six days ago. >> i tell you the data i've seen on enthusiasm gives democrats or even or ahead, the minority vote remember is up 4% the white vote is down 4% as well. >> must be the comment about small businesses, owing everything to the government. >> whatever it is. >> it does bear watching. i'll tell you this, guy, whoever wins, it won't be close at all. it won't be close at all. meanwhile, something you you did not hear this week about the president's health care law, that has some job creators feeling sick, i'm going to get a doctor. ♪ at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person.

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>> live from america's news headquarters, i'm anna kooiman, from the olympics to the middle east, governor mitt romney is headed to israel, expected to meet with several

leaders, including prime minister benjamin netanyahu, romney is visiting israel as part after three nation foreign tour that includes britain and poland and analysts say this could help boost his credentials to direct u.s. national security and diplomacy. we're learning more details about the mass murder suspect behind colorado's movie theater massacre, new court papers showing james holmes was a patient of university of colorado psychiatrist before last week's attack. the same doctor that received a package from holmes that was seized by police after a search warrant. holmes is claiming he has amnesia and doesn't remember the attacks that killed 12 and injured more than 50 others. i'm anna kooiman, now back to cavuto on business. >> welcome back, never mind the savings, just look at the hiking. the congressional budget office saying that the president's health care law

with small businesses with 4 billion in new fees and taxes, charles you say forget the savings, you're by the 4 million in added fees. >> i think it's going to be more than that. cbo has been manipulated so much, i hate to say this, they've lost a lot of credibility. >> and young man-- >> i'm trying to be. >> when they release numbers that philosophical and-- >> all right. >> fair is fair. >> until then let's let common sense rule the day. this obamacare thing is going to specifically destroy the small businesses, the small business job creators and you know what? there's no way around it. everyone says it and admits it, you be put out the numbers, we know the numbers are going to be worse when the time comes and i think that everyone realizes that. >> what does worry me about the rollout of the health care, along with upfront. that's by and large what we've

got upfront. kids with pre-existing conditions and keeping them on the policy until age 26, which i can tell you is not such a great idea. all the other good things happening and then the bad stuff keeps happening. >> and it's medicare related expenses and i don't know by design, but that's the way it's going to roll out. what do you think of that? >> i think that it's a whole obama numbers on health care were a fraud from day one. they're not going to get the savings they expected and much more importantly, the big, big chunk of change they're expecting was by raising taxes on upper income people. and that wasn't going to be a saving in medical costs, it was going to take more money in the pockets of the job creators and apply it to medical costs and there was never any big savings or banding the cost cares, it was taxing the well-to-do more, it was that simple. >> no, i promise you there are so many taxes lynn in this bill that people are going to be waking up for years to come, saying we're getting hit with that, aim getting hit with that and whether, even if

the mandate tax which is going to hit a majority of people and make it less than $120,000 a year, and how about the medical devices taxes more than 2%, aimed at raising more than $20 billion dollars, you know who that hits smaller businesses with smaller margins and innovators in the country and don't tell me it isn't going to hurt innovation. >> i didn't say it was, why are you yelling? >> and mr. gasperino. >> i would say the biggest folly of health care is that for marginal savings, forget whether it's real or not. how much of the cbo's 80 billion dollars in savings we imploded, 16% of the economy? on the federal budget. correct me if i'm wrong, i think it's 3 1/2 trillion dollars, it's huge and savings over ten years of 84 billion dollars on that type after budget is nothing, it's nothing. we've imploded 16% of the economy for nothing. >> julian. >> let's put facts on the table. 97% of small businesses are

exempt from the health care law, of the 3% that aren't exempt, 91, 92% provide health insurance. >> by the way, you have to assume tell' continue doing so, right? >> a lot of them will say we can't afford it. >> okay, of the small numbers of small business that this will change the situation for, they get a 50% tax credit for providing health insurance. >> why are we doing this then. >> the cbo-- >> because they're giving incentive to meet the small, to meet the employer requirement, the cbo, which conservatives and republicans love to cite is saying that the premiums for small businesses will go down from 4% to 11%. 11% when you include the small business credit and you can't just talk about the-- >> i don't trust the enormous amount of tax credit and enormous premium rebate. >> your numbers and the president's numbers on small business deceptive. >> the cbo's numbers.

>> 97% of small businesses, right when they say not impacted by taxes and paid the extra here, now what they are? those are consultants, single people, that consider themselves. >> no. >> that they are know-- >> yes, they are not jobs-- >> under 50, charles. >> jobs creating small businesses get hammered by this and all the-- >> no no. >> businesses under the 50 employees, businesses under 50 employees. >> let ben stein comment. >> julian, with the greatest possible respect to you, sir, if nobody's affected by it, why are we doing it? if nobody's affected by it, it doesn't cost anything, why bother doing it? >> because lots of other people besides small businesses are affected by it, ben, for example, the 40 million, the 40 million americans we never talk about on this program who don't have insurance will be able to get insurance. the people discriminated against with pre-existing conditions and other other

thing that the health care reform does and i don't know if anyone understand who wruns small business, i do. >> and let me tell you-- >> well, charles does. >> around 25. >> okay, and, and for my business, for my business this is a net plus, i'm telling you for my business it's a net plus. >> well, if it doesn't affect small business, why have it affect small business at all? >> and it affects-- (laughter) >> ben stein, if your kid's school is failing, how about just taking it over. parents in one california town doing just that. why is the forbes gang giving this an a-plus for all taxpayers? that's coming up at the top of the hour. but up next, talk about a rotten apple, why a sales setback for that company could take a bite out of back to school shopping after this. [music] see life in the best light.

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>> coming up, shot till you drop or shopping? and some are

>> i can't believe we're saying this. all the back to school stuff. there's an argument being made that the back to school boom is going to bring this economy back. what, no boom. and people just tell their kids whatever you had last year and use this year. we've got consumer confidence now at the lowest level of the year and take a look at apple, and only 26 million iphones in the quarter. and that was lot fewer than expected. dagen? >> gasoline prices have been going back up and that could put a blanket on back to

school sales. >> i don't buy that, they're notoing to drive to staples to pick up your-- >> if gas prices start going up, people change their behavior, but i will say back to school is mandatory spending for many parents and may be not the best gauge of the overall economy. >> what do you think, charles. >> i want to mention what charlie mentioned earlier, gdp report, consumer spending dropped dramatically and american savings-- >> maybe he's right about that. a telling, alarming-- >> and that's counter intuitive for americans, we do love to spend. something, people on main street know this often, a lot faster than people on the ivory towers in wall street and they're going to get the basics, but you may not get the super-duper thing you were looking for. >> all right. >> i think this will bail out the president in the battle ground states-- just kidding (laughter) >> as pocket notebook so goes. >> julian, this is why he's in

trouble. >> and what do you think of that, julian. >> on this. >> and look, i agree with charlie, the single most important figure here is gdp numbers, when obama took office we were at negative 9 and now positive 2, and we've been averaging positive 1.5 and we've been averaging-- >> and the retailers, well, most people believe that's true. >> okay. but, you know. >> i've seen it-- >> most of the retail -- you survey the retailers and retailers do expect a big back to school. >> we'll see, we don't know yet, ben, you expect a big back to school boom? >> i expect there will be a big back to school boom, but i don't think there's ever been a major economic crisis overcome by back to school spending and this won't be the first one. >> oh, my god, look what happened at the notebooks, hit the fan. >> and talking about christmas this time of year. >> don't do the heavy stuff on

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hot temperature and hottest stocks to help you pay the grocery bims. >> ibm just pulls back. tock will go higher. >> what do you think, ben? >> i love ibm. it is brilliant minds doing brilliant work . >> what are you brillianly picking, ben? >> i love canada . i think canada has the best economy run in the world. and lots of minerals, and i love them. >> what do you think of the country. any country that took shumer. >> i admired canada and taxes are lower and done everything pro business and set the standard and