>> all sorts of twins get together. >> i brought you breakfast. >> and thanks to bass pro, the fall classic going on at all bass pro shops. >> thanks. >> ainsley: i've had so much fun with you guys. >> clayton: and again, the at. >> ainsley: you were not doing this as a child? >> congress bolting as the unemployment rate is rising and it's just not jobs that are hurting. they're flat lining, and factory orders falling, manufacturing shrinking and housing sales falling. all of that nearly two-thirds of consumers think that the u.s. is back in a recession right now. are they right? i'm brenda buttner, let's get to it. gary b smith, tobin smith. jonas max ferris along with the author "the great crash ahead" and the aspen

institute, susan. welcome everybody. okay, harry, forget it a new recession, you think we can't get out of the first one. you have two economies, the households with middle and low income wages and part-time jobs instead of full-time. many are underwater in their mortgages and their unemployment rates are more like 9 0 -- 9 to 10% and the flip side. the college, they're gaining jobs and control about 85% of the financial assets outside of real estate and what the fed has been able to bubble back up with the artificial stimulus and we don't think it's going to lost. the top 20% are doing okay. shopping at guccis. most people feel like recession and never came out since 2009. >> okay, make the days for

recovery. >> and we've had jobs created, a strong number and it's getting us up to a good place and 25% are manufacturing jobs and it doesn't happen overnight, but there's no denying that this is a good friend. and on the unemployment rate-- there is-- on the unemployment rate 8.22 to 8.25 and rounding up to 3. toby was choking. and-- >> saying that 8.25 is the same as 8.3, that's a stretch. here is the problem. if you take the unemployed number and the underemployed and that's really how we should look at our economy, because if people are not fully participating in the economy, to them, guess what, it feels like a recession and that's where we're at. we're actually at a point, we have 20% unemployment and

underemployment in the state of california. i like the state and the-- and i do about every 20 years, but we're in a point that we've not hit the circle and by the way, susan, love you, 150,000 jobs is a strong recovery? are you kidding me? we need 300,000, we would need 300,000 for the next four and a half years to get to 6% unemployment. let's not kid ourselves. >> i'm going to somebody who might be an ally of susan. jonas, when you're looking at unemployment. sometimes it can really reflect the economy, changing economy, changes from old to new one. >> there's a lot of countries that never go for much under 8% and france had a-- >> france? >> and by the way, countries like japan in economic stagnation for 30, 20 at least years and the unemployment number is above 6%, and that's

the only data point and you might have to get used to it. and there's definitely a part of this economy, and always sounds like the two economies, but there's definitely a part that's not seeing the time. and everybody had a-- the bottom line the stock market is not in recession and the economy is bigger than it's ever been and corporate earnings is higher than it's ever been. that's not a recession, you don't get a cut of that pie that you want the bottom line we're not yet in recession. >> okay, gary b, i know you're toby's brother, kind of. >> everybody thinks he's my brother. >> you should be proud of that. and gary about: i had to wait until last. i wanted you to hit that high c. >> and i'm too relaxed today to hit the high c. i am he a making mental notes along the way and harry said the top 20% are doing well. i don't think there's even the

top 20% are doing that well to be honest. susan, how can we say we've had over three years above 8% when obama clearly said we'd be at 6%, that's good news. that's the uber spin right there. i agree with jonas, we might be in this 8% and i hope we're not headed more toward europe, greece edging closer to 20% unemployment, but that may be the way. the bottom line, i don't think we're going to enter nor recession and it feels awful now, but we've been in kind of this awful mode for a while. i think in order for us to get worse, right now, housing prices would have to go into another slump, and flat line. and consumer spending would really have to drop off the cliff and that's flat line. unemployment would have to start getting back up to towards 10% and while i don't-- >> and right now, flat lining, shall we do that? and that's know the what we're talking about. >> yeah, i think we're just moving side ways through this muck and it's awful. it feels very european, as i

said in the past, very european without the good food and that's the-- >> and well, we could argue about that, but, toby, if it feels like a recession to two-thirds of americans? is it a recession? they're not going to spend. businesses are not going to spend. isn't that a recession. >> it's for this equation, we have the same amount of discretionary income today than almost ten years ago and that means that the pot has not grown and it does feel like a recession, ergo, it is a recession barring a fortunate few or people that live in energy states. now, the question, how do we get around it? let's not kid ourselves, all the numbers are pointing toward a recession in the first of next year. >> susan, go ahead, we've been waiting for to go in. >> business activity jumped up 5 points that's a big move and showed consumer confidence up.

this is about trends and the direction you're moving in. >> and are' trying to make the case that everything is falling apart and we're going off a cliff and the fact is we've had 29 straight months of private sector job growth and it's not perfect, but it's not stalled, it's not-- >> i filled out a-- >> okay. and hold on. >> that's 200 feet below-- >> economies always look good before they fall off a cliff. demographics told us everyday household. the top 20% are going to stop spending after 2012. and i think that you're going to be seeing consumer drop next year and recession 2013-2014. and it's going to be much deeper. the demographics are going to be the leading indicator and-- >> i think that harry makes a good point. i think that if demographics, i know in our family we're treeing to spend less and less

each time and i don't think we're there yet. sometimes funny things happen. and we never anticipate sometimes the bad news, we also don't anticipate the good news. no one saw the internet coming, for example, which gave us the biggest boom and certainly in the stock market, and maybe, you know, since the 20's, so sometimes good news comes along like the oil shale in the u.s., could take off in the government got out of the way. could be a boom. >> and jonas, some things as positive we thought that energy prices were coming down and going to help people. gas prices are going up again. housing prices are still falling and you know, things that the economy has stalled, hasn't it? >> it's stalled, maybe picking up pace again because oil prices are going up. only thing is, these are negative okay, the bottom is not growing, and these are signs that america is more of a meritocracy and if you make more money faster at a younger

age, it's more like that every year and even though-- >> go ahead, tell that to my teenagers who can't get a job. >> and the kids between 18 and 25, almost 30% unemployment for all kids under 30. and that's is not, my friend jonas, as the roaring 2010 for young people. >> no, i'm sorry, thanks, guys, got to go now. the people have spoken on tax hikes. what voters m america decided this week that should have them listening up at the bottom of the hour. but up here first, remember this? >> if you touch my junk i'm going to have you arrested. >> now, the tsa doing something that has someone ming here saying, get ready to pay for more patdowns. >> then you belong at bass pro shops' fall hunting classic, our biggest hunting event ever. your adventure starts here.

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>> live interest america's news headquarters, i'm heather childers. iran claims it successfully

test fired a short range ballistic missile. this is iranian state tv. what it claims as the fourth generation rocket. and if the defense minister has improved accuracy and a range of 185 miles, iran is pushing to upgrade its missiles which can target israel and other parts of the region. and a close call at a detroit metro airport. f.a.a. officials saying a delta flight from phoenix and a small regional jet coming dangerously close to each other while attempting to land last night. one passenger saying that he could see the other plane clearly from his window. and coming days after three u.s. airways jet, at reagan international airport. i'm heather childress. back to you. >> your next airport patdown could cost you even more. the clueded from this

deal, which is not about the work they're doing, this is about like vacation hours and work shifts and actually we haven't seen the deal yet. but they're also not included in the deal and you're going to see happier tsa employees. >> well, jonas, usually if you

see with unionization, you see wages go up. why wouldn't you here? >> yeah, 'cause going to strike before thanksgiving, i'm sure. when the government took over the private system and made them government workers, you basically asked them to unionize because the government workers-- >> what does it mean to us? >> it's going to mean higher something, labor costs and for when go on vacation and come out of all taxpayers' pockets. they don't think that they need to pay the budget. it comes from revenues, so if i fly to florida everybody else is going to pay the higher fee and that's the way that the government rolls. >> does this mean that you're going to start riding your bike to d.c. or what's going to happen? >> as what usually happens, when toby happens when a monopoly or a cartel gets involved. you have more ineffiency and you have higher costs, period. susan might argue well it's

not wages, it's certainly benefits. we've seen that in every industry that comes in. can anybody say that public employees ar inefficient. no, they would say they're highly paid and benefits astronomical. same with gm and airplane pilots and sector that unions come in. that's their job of course, they want people to work less and get paid more. you're going to see the same thing with tsa. i don't necessarily want them happier for crying out loud, doing their job. >> okay, are you happy with this? >> no, of course not. every industry and function that's been unionized put them in difficulty. unions have been declining for decades. my suggestion for unions if you don't want to be dinosaurs, negotiate with your members if they're the

productivity agendas, negotiate some of those gains. >> ding, ding, ding, ding. >> with that solution or you're dead. >> and susan, go ahead. >> a reminder that government unions, it's not about how they're going to have picket lines and over thanksgiving. they're about standardize, what's fragmented policies right now into one national theater. i don't think there's going to be-- >> there's going to be smiling, toby. >> and here is all i know. if we were privatizing and they were innocecentivizeincent going through the random checks-- >> that would be a fabulous thing. >> and just shuffle people--ant- >> come op. >> and faster, and by the way, there's a new tsa line there's almost no checking and if it went that way, all the lines which they should, they would cut 50% of the people out. do you think that they're going to cut 50% of the people out? no. >> and gary, you just want

them frowning and grumpy. >> if you like to go into the local dmv, at the airport in the future. >> that's going to be the last word. thanks, guys. . >> we've saved an auto industry. but what about saving the taxpayer? why some new moves by gm have someone here saying, those bailout busts, could be on the skids. orgdoes your cauliflowernic have a big carbon footprint? not at all. that's great. melons!!! oh yeah!! well that was uncalled for. uhh... mr. gallagher. incoming!!! hahaha! it's wasteful. you know jimmy. folks who save hundreds of dollars switching to geico sure are happy. how happy, ronny? happier than gallagher at a farmers' market. get happy. get geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more.

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>> coming up. what a soccer team has to do with your tax dollars. it will shock you. and one could make 25

>> new worries. taxpayers with bailout bucks

back from gm. as sales fall, gm is planning to send more than half a million dollars to sponsor an english soccer team and on top of that helping it fund a village in texas. and add it up and we'll never see one dime of the 27 billion that gm still owes us? >> exactly. brenda. back in the good old days, i didn't care what gm did, could waste their money, didn't matter. i wasn't invested in the company. now as a taxpayer i am. number one, this whole, 559 million dollars, they're spending to sponsor manchester united. and a sell and 159 million dollars worth of vehicles, and i think everyone at this point knows what gm is, you know, the name recognition thing, they could move on from that, but the bigger issue is the sponsorship of the chevy volt. thing is should it have been done or not, it's sold as well

as the edsel and we're actually working against the companies that manufacture here like honda and toyota. so we're wasting a lot of money we'll never get it back, we need to move on. >> harry, do you think we'll get it back? >> no, i don't. i think that demographics, housing earlier in the cycle. age 37 to 42, it's this simple. predictable people and autos peak between 46 and 50. and when we see the autos, are going to take a similar slide to house being many years ago and we're not going to see autos turn up for a long time. if general motors has not paid us back now, they're not going to pay us back two to three years from now. >> susan, sometimes you have to spend money to get money. >> and europe, awusterity to get growth the and gm is still number one in china if you're

looking for growth. that's the pleas i'd place my bets. jonas, you're more optimistic, and first of all, if the stock went like the other day, we're going to get the money back and share, pretty much get the money back. >> where is it now? >> it's at 20. 20. >> okay, yeah, and, it's we try to make a lot of this seem like taxing corporate earnings in gm and all the workers who were on fire, payroll taxes from them and not getting the unemployment insurance and some offset for the loss here, i don't think that gm is doing that bad. another deep recession, i don't see them going out of business and the democrats working with the cadillac lineup, i don't know what he's talking about. but anyway, even though morally against making mistakes-- >> joe, the day that you buy a cadillac, they will turn around and the issue is i'm fot going to play advertising expert tore guru like gary about. is. they like an american company

that sponsored manchester united was aig, so i rest my case. [laughter] >> you know what, brenda, per susan's point, why aren't they sponsoring a chinese sports team or something. and own peugot and-- >> and manchester united. >> we don't tell them how to advertise. we have a right-- >> and they got taxpayer money and-- >> it's football. >> that's got to be the last word, guys. thanks so much. and thanks to susan very much for joining us, we appreciate it. winning goals cost athletes serious grown from the irs. one golden name to help you pay for it and make you a winner in the market next.

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>> predictions and gary b, you are up. >> brenda, forget gm. focus on tm, toyota. it's making a big comeback after the tsunami and i think it's up 20% by the end of the year. >> harry, are you a bull or bear on toyota? >> bear. >> okay. what are your predictions? >> we see a heightened chance of a mini crash in stocks in the next two to three months. buy the etf buy it mid august, august 17th for a potential 25% gain into november. >> gary b, bull or bear on that. >> i'm bullish on the market, that means i don't like harry's pick. >> jonas, your prediction. >> facebook sunk below $20 a share and that stock was almost 50. that's a good speculative take, it's not that much of a ripoff. >> put this on your counter for the worst of the