welcome back. we invite i to go to the after the show show where courtney will tell us about her world tours and travels. >> see you tomorrow. the jobless rate ticking down, but is this ticking clock going to send it soaring? hi, everyone, this is "bulls & bears." three weeks until health care kicks in. some think unemployment will go up. the bulls and bears, gary b. smith, tracy burns, john lafield along with sasha burns. three weeks away from the health

care laws kicking in. what are the premiums going to mean to jobs? >> i think it's going to hurt the jobs. a lot of people said this number was good. 169,000 jobs added. unemployment rate went from 7.4% to 7.3% but 312,000 jobs were lost during this time. july numbers were revised down. this is the lowest labor force participation rate since august 1978, in the middle of jimmy carter's terms, which were not exactly good times. the biggest problem you have right now in this job market, most of jobs lost are between 16 and 24-year-olds. these kids are not going to be hired because you're seeing -- everybody quotes new york. new york has unique situation with their insurance premiums, they look like they'll go down. wisconsin up 120%, california up 150%. these are going to hurt and

companies won't hire people because of obama care kicking in. >> you say there may not be a net effect. >> right. we already have the burden of an employer having to pay your insurance. a lot of people in states where the law is you could have a small policy will get more insurance. they get 150% more insurance their employer will pay for, but for you to consume more health care because of that. you're going to see doctors more, use more medical device, and create jobs. it will lower -- your paycheck won't go up but the money will be spent in the economy. it's not going poof. >> gary b. smirk. you were smirking throughout that whole lecture by jonas. >> i was smiling because i like jonas. sometimes you wantders onto a good point. here he didn't, though, unfortunately.

the premiums are not going to double, maybe up 90%. 17 states only have exchanges. the states that have reported, on average i will say in defense of the left, on average they'll go up. some states it will go down. but look, the bottom line is, i was to get back to jonas' point. i pay premiums. i don't have a big company. my premium in maryland will go up 30%. i'm not going to see a doctor any more than i have to. all i know is at the end of the year i'll have less money in my paycheck. what that is, it's essentially a tax. what have we seen in all the studies that have shown s there a correlation between higher taxes and higher unemployment? yes.

when taxes go up, unemployment goes up. in fact, i think some of these numbers are low balling. i think john is wrong. they're going to double, go up more than 100%, so we'll see worse unemployment nsumbers. >> sasha, you're not worried about this? >> for every number or report you find that says they're going up, i can find ten that says they're going down. you can find a metric that goes with what you want to believe or do believe. there are reports right and left by inpend experts that show rates are -- >> they're definitely are reports on both sides, but bottom line, where do you come down on this? do you think it's going to have an impact on jobs? >> no, i don't. we just had this bad jobs report come out. april and may the highest in

years. that was before there was a delay in the implementation of the mandate. in july, once the president delayed that implementation, the numbers went down. they got worse afterwards. if you want to do a correlation that has to do with obama care, it would have to be the numbers got worse because it was delayed. >> that's not why they went down. they went down because we're adding more uncertainty to this dismal pictures. jonas hopes we live in a world of part-time workers but part-time people don't have money to spend in this economy. health care premiums go up, employers continue to hire part-timers because they don't want to pay for those. look at friday's labor report. 63.2% participation rate. who's paying taxes? jesus, half the country barely gets a w-2.

this is not going to work in the end. >> jonas, a lot of people pay tax credits which brings insurance down. >> the negative effect isn't rising health care because of obama care. let's say you're an employer, you pay him $150,000, now a $5,000 health care example, now $10,000. i'm giving worst example. it's not like i'm going to fire you because -- or there goes your raise because i had to buy you a bonus which is a much more expensive health care plan. >> doesn't that hurt the economy because people don't have as much money to spend? >> what we're doing, brenda -- yes, exactly.

we're taking money from the individual and giving it to the government run this obama care thing. let's look at the examples. we're giving the none to the government is an efficient transfer of funds. it's not. i think jonas made the mention this money is -- >> oh, come on. >> jonas says the money isn't going to go poof and vanish. that is what happens when you give it to the government. it's wasteful spending. i can't think of a governmental agency where you say they're efficient. no, we give the money to the government. it's spent less efficiently than if i had it. >> you get better health -- >> i don't want -- most people don't want this more health insurance. >> people don't want want car price to go up when the government mandated clean air.

they had to raise the price of cars because they had to add a catalytic converter and -- >> oh, come on. >> every year you buy health is insurance. >> you also have a choice between what kind of program you get and what you get. that's the bronze, silver and platinum, which to me is tailor-made to a republican. there's competition. you choose what you'll spend money on -- >> the government has the copper plate, though. >> brenda started this segment on job. is this going to help or hurt jobs? no way is it going to help jobs. it's not going to create them. i get what you're saying, jonas, no one is going to get fired or get a raise, but no one is going to get hired. what about every small business that has to burden these costs now. >> i didn't say dooi-- it's zerm gain. >> it is not. >> it's not all losers.

>> i'm sorry. >> i was spending my money personally and i decided not to buy a car and instead buy, you know, health insurance, yes, but giving it to the government. i'm giving them $10. i'm going to get back $7 worth of benefits. that's where the money goes poof. >> that's the last word. they really do like each other. union-backed protests now targeting walmart to pay higher wages. we're on it at the bottom of the hour. up here first, as tensions with syria mount, the markets appear to be shrugging it off. why? what's next? what the smart money knows that you should know.

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good morning. we're live from america's news headquarters. i'm jamie colby. president obama is facing an uphill battle, still trying to

sell a skeptical congress on a military strike against syria. it's in response to the assad regime allegedly using chemical weapons against its own people. after two days of intense lobbying, the president left the g-20 summit with only limited support. now he intends to make his case to the american people in a white house address tuesday night. nasa is headed to the moon. >> two, one, zero, ignition. lift-off. >> the mission is to explore the moon's mysterious glow. incredible sight for millions to see on the east coast. i'm jamie colby. the threat for an attack on syria looming as congress gears up to vote on military action and the president set to address the nation tuesday night.

don't tell that to wall street. after initially falling on reports about chemical weapons in syria, stocks are up since then. so gary b., does wall street know something we don't? >> i don't think it does. i think they're seriously hoping there is no attack on syria. forget the politics. when kerry said, we have proof. the markets plummeted. if we strike syria, i bet the market drops in a matter of days 1,000 points. the last thing this market wants, forget about syria, they know there will be protracted war out there. things will spin out of control. the market will go in the tank. i'm fingers crossed nothing happens. >> should we be worried about our 401(k)s? >> no, i don't think so because look at what happened the last 25 years from libya back to

bosnia. every time you have a coffin flikt looming, oil prices rocketing and markets stabilize. though see our noble peace prize president is probably being talked out of going into syria. if that happens, that's the best case scenario for the markets. >> what do you snee. >> if the syria vote goes down in congress, after that we get back to the discussion about the budget and debt ceiling. if the president loses this vote to the republicans or to the congress, republicans have to dig their heels in harder if they voted against it for their constituents who want it, vice versa, and the president will not concede another defeat to the republicans in one month. that could create a problem. they would punt it, kick the

ball down to the end of the year and that creates that uncertainty in the markets they don't like. >> john made a good point about many kritcrisis from pearl harbo 9/11. the market goes down sharply and then rebounds. >> i think we'll see the exact same thing. i think we're seeing a bunch of short-term blips, john mccain, they have a bunch of gyrations but i think the market could give a damn about anything but the next fed meeting. it's all about whether or not they're going to taper. if we do do something in syria, that means the money comes that much longer because there's more unstability at home. i think all they're looking at athat meeting in september, how much will they decide to cut back. that is truly what they care about at the end of the day. >> the tracy is talking about the fed buying up all these bonds, which is helping the market rally. jonas, you say the market is

hipp hippie. what does that mean? >> it doesn't like war, he wants peace. it doesn't mean it was remotely positive. if we never had wars i would say the dow would be at 25,000, our gdp would be 3 to 4 trillion higher. it's a wasteful resource. it's a complete waste. it's bad for the stock market. it's only good for defense stocks which have been doing well in the last few weeks, unfortunately, in some ways. it's not a political statement. it's a waste to an economy. that's how you bring down economies, not boost them up. >> is it a waste of the economy. 2700 teachers just laid off in chicago and we're firing -- every missile we fire in there could keep one hired in there forean entire why. we don't have the money to go in there. we're not the world's police officer. there is a tragedy in syria but

i hope we find a way to stay out of it. i think the market does as well. >> that has to be the last word. forget ditching class. how about skipping college all together? a growing trend some are blaming on student aid as your life changes, fidelity is there r your personal economy, helping you readjust along the way, refocus as careers change and kids head off to college, and revisit your investments as retirement gets closer. wherever you are today, fidelity's guidance can help you fine-tune your personal economy. start today with a free one-on-one review of your retirement plan.

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. coming up, forget about dropping out of college. this

remember that? not since that song topped the charts have we seen this on college campuses.

the number of people enrolling in school actually dropping. the last time that happened was 2006. gary says the government is to blame. how so, gary? >> brenda, once again, it's the law of unintended consequences. somewhere in the history of the constitution was changed and it was decided government should provide for students to go to college and they created sallie mae to give out student loans. what happens when you throw, basical basically, a lot of money at a set product? prices go up. what's happened is the price of tuition has risen. students are taking on these loans they eventually have a hard time in many cases can't even pay back. so this compact that you went to school and goutyou got a job, w a lot of college students can't to pay off loans, are gone. that's why people are electing not to go to college. >> it is true. it's getting more and more expensive. tracy, you have three kids.

is it basically a good investment still? >> unfortunately, it's becoming more and more debatable. what we're seeing in the study is kids are 25 and older are not going back to cool. that's how the decline started. they're out there. they realize going back for another degree is not going to get them another job. to gary's point, financial aid, who's getting it? wealthy pay cash flat out. low income get loans of load. the middle class is getting squeezed. many are opting to do other things. go to state schools, two-year schools, find other ways around it. i think that's what's hurting us. >> jonas? >> prices are definitely higher because government makes easy interest-low loans for anybody to go to school. this recent phenomenon is less than and more that the economy has rebound enough that older people that were going back to

school because of no job prospects are thinking the job prospects, news for them, is not to great. that's what you're seeing above 25-year-olds. 18-year-olders are still going they don't want to be in the workforce anyway. >> good or bad? >> absolutely. i mean, you look at any number of rising income, quality, bringing yourself up. it has to do with education. you just -- in very rare cases you can make it having not graduated from college compared to if you do. and in terms of -- you know, you guys can debated what you think about the government getting involved. in this kind of global market, global world that we exist in, we can't have an uneducated workforce. the jobs don't exist anymore. and we can't continue to lag behind the entire rest of the world and noneducated people. >> both creators of microsoft

and facebook, dropouts from college. you are a bull or bear, jon? >> i'm a bull on college but a bear on what the government has done. they screwed up the entire higher education system. they created this environment tuition costs have gone through the roof while our education system has gotten specifically worse. we are losing tech jobs to china. not because of lower taxes but because they have more tech engineers. what government has done to college specifically, we are losing that battle. it's showing up in our labor force. >> thank you, john. here we go again. new video just uncovered catching irs workers spoofing "the apprentice show" at a conference. when you find out how much it costs us, you'll want to tell a tax agency, you're fired. i t in the hours and built a stro reputation in the industry.

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predictions. >> they say they broke encryption. software up 20%, you benefit. >> bull or bear? >> no. bear. >> gary? >> first of all, i really do love jonas. second of all, i love disney world, which i just got back from. the place was jammed. the stock is up 10% by the end of the year. >> john, a bull or bear? >> mickey mouse is a rat and i'm a bear. >> jonas, your prediction? >> state and local pension, in the hole and counting. where is that money going to get invested once they can tax us to get it? long-term bonds. vanguard long-term bond. it's weak recently. time to get in. >> gary b., do you really like jonas? bull or bear? >> not so much anymore. i don't like this stock, no. >> tracy, your prediction? >> the latest zinger out of the

irs, another video. about $10,000 it costs them. they spoofed "the apprentice" having the entire tax population saying, you're fired! >> anybody a bull or bear on the irs? >> pretty good production. >> all right. we are a bull on neil cavuto. obama, obama, we can see your greedy side. >> wage rage again. walmart, again. hi again, everyone. if this is ringing a bell, it should. targeting the nation's largest retailer to hike wages. just the latest of unions pushing for higher job growth. is it time for protesters to get a reality check? we have ben