>> yeah. you become outnumbered. it's your own many outnumbered which by the way, you can listen to the radio too. >> thanks for joining us today. see you back here. same time, same couch. >> bye. >> different outfits. bill: thank you, everybody. have breaking news already now from this morning. the u.s. tomorrow will sign an agreement that leaves 10,000 american troops in afghanistan. senior advisor john podesta making that announcement in kaupe buell a moment ago. the same day that afghanistan gets its brand new leader. more details inside of "america's newsroom." first show though blaming intelligence officials for dropping the ball on isis. president obama pointing a finger at a spy chief for underestimating the vicious terror group that sprung up in iraq and more so in syria. hope you had a great weekend. i'm bill hemmer. welcome to "america's newsroom."

we start another week. >> good morning bill. booed morning everybody. i'm martha maccallum. last month the president said intelligence estimates failed to anticipate the rise of isis he is doubling down on the comment and naming names. singled out his director of national intelligence james clapper. watch. >> i think our head of the intelligence community, jim clapper, has acknowledged i think they underestimated what had been taking place in syria. >> he didn't say that, just say that we underestimated isil? he said we overestimated the ability and the will of our allies, the iraqi army to fight. >> that's true. that is absolutely true. bill: byron york, chief political correspondent, "washington examiner," fox news contributor to take us through it. how are you this morning, byron. good monday to you. he admitted to not one but two major failures in that interview. how so. >> absolutely.

he his administration failed to detent the growth of isis, the power of isis, spreading throughout territory and iraq and syria failed to do that but he also said they failed, they overestimated the strength of the iraqi army. if you listen to that interview the president threw out, a very big question mark whether the iraqi army will end up actually fighting in this whole affair. so those are two huge mistakes. underestimating the strength of the enemy and overestimating the strength of the allies. bill: did james clapper get the number of that bus that hit him? even blamed former iraqi prime minister, but did he admit any failings of his own in that interview? >> none of his own, you're right. as far as problems in iraq. the president said, we, the united states left them with a functioning government. with a well-equipped army, with everything they needed to function and basically he blamed the former prime minister maliki for screwing it all up. as far as blaming the intelligence community that will

have real repercussions. they don't like hearing that they have messed up. by the way, fox news has already reported a few weeks ago that the president was briefed about the strength of isis, about the danger that isis posed. so i think what you will see in the coming days is bureaucratic infighting inside the government in which intelligence sources say look, we told them, the president knew what was going on and now he is blaming us. bill: one more thing. we are the indispensable nation he said. our military is the best in the history of the world. when trouble comes up anywhere in the world they don't call beijing, they don't call moscow, they call us. i found that comment rather exceptional, did you? >> that is key word to you. you're right, the president went through all sorts of emergencies and calamities happened around the globe that have basically been fixed or the first people to come to the aid of whoever is suffering is the american military. the president seemed to be making an argument for american

exceptionalism. what is interesting about that is of course he always rejected the idea that america is a an exceptional nation you about he made a pretty good arguments for it last night. bill: took six years but he got there. guy ron york, thank you. one thing in the afghanistan story, this will be debated and something very important to watch. we did not have the agreement in iraq. that is the excuse, had you had the agreement in place, had you had 10,000 perhaps you make the argument that isis does not exist the way it does today. martha: absolutely. the scenario end of this year. president said we pulled up every last person out of afghanistan while you have the rest of the region in turmoil, potentially opening up another place for this group to rise up. lots of talk on that. horrible, horrible story. charges are set to be filed against an oklahoma man accused er he wasing a woman at a food

fired. the fbi is being called in after alton nolan, allegedly stabbed two women a knife and severing one woman's head and being shot by a company executive. what unbelievable, awful story. the ex-con recently converted to islam and tried to get other employees to do the same before he was fired. will carr in los angeles. will, have the police been able to talk to him yet? >> reporter: good morning, martha. evidently nolan regained consciousness over the weekened and investigators interviewed him on saturday. they were told that nolan was not target anybody specifically last thursday. that is when he was fired from a job at a food distribution center in moore, oklahoma. turning around savagely attacked two women and beheading and a reserve deputy shot nolan ending the attack.

nolan's mother released a statement on facebook over the weekend. >> our hearts bleed right now. because what they are saying alton has done. i want to apologize to both families because this is not alton. >> reporter: but court records show he had a violent past. he served time for marijuana possession and assault on a state trooper. he will not face charges for first-degree murder among others, martha. martha: why aren't the authorities calling this an act of terrorism and given what err learn about him and his situation? >> reporter: well, that is a question a lot of people are asking right now. there is really little doubt that he was very sympathetic to islamic extreme it groups. all you have to do is check out his facebook to get that sense. the question was this a lone wolf terrorist or an angry employee. there is no evidence that he had ties to terrorist groups but it

cops on the heels of isis calling for violence on westerners. the fbi is investigating. members of his mosque say nolan was quiet and odd. >> it concerned me in a way that nobody with a right mind would do such a crime in such a heinous way. i right away came to the conclusion that this guy is not normal. >> reporter: in one way this case mirrors the 2009 fort hood shooting. that is the fact of the obama administration classified that shooting as an act of workplace violence, martha, and not terrorism. a lot of people questioned that back then and still do. martha? martha: thank you very much. bill: we're asking this question this morning, what do you think, workplace violence or terror? send us a tweet @billhemmer and @marthamaccallum. you can talk to us on twitter next two hours. we'll debate it coming up next hour. they have been loathe and hesitant to call it that.

we'll find out why. seven minutes past. check out the calendar, america. 36 days until the midterms and a race in way waa closer than expected. eight-year democratic congressman bruce braley falling six points behind republican state senator joni earns out of des moines. the two sparring attacking one another over their finances or and political allegiance. >> i will stand up and do what is right for iowans, not for california extreme environmentalists, not for senator harry reid not for president obama. but again for the iowa people. i am someone that has stood up for my community, my state, and my nation. bill: wow, karl rove will join us on all that. in depth look what a win in iowa could do to sway the balance of power. watch that race. martha: as the midterms start to heat up a major battle is breaking out on capitol hill. the white house is hinting it

might name a replacement for attorney general eric holder during the lame-duck session with a change of senate possibly changing hands. a top republican senator is warning democrats, don't even think about it he says. >> it does need to wait. i need oppose any vote on during the lame-duck session. it would be the sir time since the civil war we had a vote on attorney general since parties switched. martha: he said it would show quote, desperation, what the democrats feel about losing their majority in the senate that. will be a big issue coming weeks. bill: if that senate flips, we'll be some interesting times, america. >> absolutely. bill: the third week in january. even beyond that for that matter. clashes with pro-democracy protesters turning violent. watch here. [shouting] that is a lot of tear gas and it did not end there. why those demonstrators are refusing to back down.

that plus this. >> oh. oh. [bleep]. martha: unbelievable. a deadly day after a monster truck losing control and plowed into spectators there. we'll give you the latest. bill: the obama administration saying that al qaeda was decimated. do they stand by that same claim today? why the white house argues another full-blown war is not the answer. >> what we're not going to do is fall into the al qaeda trap of sending hundred of thousands of americans back. that is exactly what they want. they want to bog us down, tie us down, bleed us. we'll be smarter. it's going to cost me an arm and a leg. that's hilarious. i'm sorry. you shoulda taken it to midas. get some of that midas touch. they'll tell you what stuff needs fixing, and what stuff can wait. all right. next time i'm going to midas. high-five!

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martha: communist china cracking down on protesters calling for more freedom in hong kong. riot police blasting the pro-democracy students. look at these scenes over the weekend. there were activists as well and they were all hit with tear gas. dozens of people were reported hurt but tens of thousands of people filling the streets are refusing to leave. they are demanding that china remove political restrictions on the 2017 elections. the chaos, one of the biggest challenges that beijing has faced since the bloody violence in tianamen square 25 years ago. bill: surprising announcement moments ago. afghanistan says it will sign an agreement that allows 10,000

u.s. troops to stay in that country beyond the deadline the white house had wanted which is the end of this year. senior white house advisor john podesta traveling says the deal will be signed tomorrow in kabul. pete hegseth, concerned veterans for america, fox news contributor. good morning to you. you were in afghanistan last two years ago, 2012, is that right? >> absolutely. 2011, 2012. bill: what do you think of this move now? >> this is a very important move. this is a recognition that the investments that we made in afghanistan, if we don't stand by with residual force they could go in the wrong direction. i saw that when i was there. the taliban remains very strong in the countryside, a lot of pressure on the afghan army. this is important move to consolidate military and diplomatic gains. you know what this, bill? this is tacit acknowledgement from this administration. that they learned lessons in iraq that they have. going zero in iraq didn't work.

they will have residual of 10,000 forces in afghanistan. this is not ending the war. they just elect ad new president and chief executive. hopefully a new chapter in afghanistan and we're there. bill: the point is, pete, you saw what isis did in syria. you have seen what isis has done in iraq. and left unchecked, what would happen in afghanistan? this administration can't afford to take that chance. so you classify this now as a lesson learned? >> i classify, absolutely, i classify this as a lesson learned. afghanistan was always good war for president obama and talked about ending it, ending it in iraq going to zero. why wouldn't we believe ending in afghanistan mean going to zero? he looked at rise of isis in iraq that the taliban is no lesser of a threat, anyone following in afghanistan today sees they remain a robust force a very real threat if we did not provide residual force

politically and militarily, we would lose control of that area and we might be drawn back in even more which is what nobody wants. so it is an important step in afghanistan. bill: when you're building a coalition of european partners how iraq has become the good war again. it's stunning. we had chris wallace on "fox news sunday" with tony blanken, the deputy national security advisor and what wallace offered a year ago the president said we're ending these wars. after 10 years of war there will be no more from the united states. here is that exchange. >> how could the president has been so wrong. >> the president was exactly right. what we're doing is totally different than the last decade. we're not sending hundred of thousands of american troops back into iraq or afghanistan or anywhere else. we're not spending trillions of americans dollars. what we're doing is supporting local forces with unique assets air power, training equiping them, intelligence. they will do the fighting on the ground. we can't want it more than they do. bill: so what the administration will argue, pete, if you don't put troops on the ground which

there are 1600, 2,000 in iraq, if you don't do that we're not fighting the same wars that george bush fought s that defense going to fly? >> it is not going to fly because they are fighting the same war that george bush fought. this fight was there before 9/11, before iraq or after iraq. these are radical islamists who seek to export of their view of this world as far and wiped as they can. they tried after 9/11 and in '04 and 06. whether we decide to defeat it or not is you are choice. they're taking a different approach, if we can work with local partners that is always preferred to large amounts of u.s. boots on the ground. the question whether the words they use, like decimation of al qaeda or destruction of isis matched with the tools, whether or not those match with the tools they're bringing to bear, whether the iraqi army and peshmerga and free syrian army can really do it. that's a huge open question, bill. whether or not he is willing to

follow through is the issue. you see this rhetorical incoherence. we are at war, we're not at war. boots on the ground, no boots on the ground. we want to repeal the authorization of use of military force, that tap dancing is not helpful way to build a coalition or build support on your side. they will have to pick one way or another whether we take these guys on and beat them. bill: i heard you talk about stubborn adherence. what do you mean by that? >> first they were indifferent on foreign policy because they are domestically focused remaking america. they think stubbornly america is the problem. he said it in speeches. effectively the blame america first idea. when problems arise in libya, iraq, syria, afghanistan, gaza, they take american minimalist approach. lessen of last six years leading from behind brides more chaos and instability yet they remain

adherent to the viewpoint. we'll see whether they change course in iraq and afghanistan. bill: pete hegseth in washington, d.c. thank you, sir. >> thank you, bill. bill: 20 past. martha. martha: taking a bigger chunk out of what you have in your bank account. dreaded bank fees are spiking. why customers are getting hit with record high rates. bill: also this desperate search for the missing college student hannah graham still not found. new details from this weekend are next. >> any little bit helps us to be able to kind of check off that box and utilize the finite resources we have in a more efficient fashion.

bill: the search for the missing university virginia student now expanding. she is 18. her name is hannah graham, last seen in charlottesville two weeks ago.

investigators say officers and volunteers will not give up this search or hope in finding her. >> what we're focusing on is the monica trail area, route 29 area. we want to take a look at the major thorough fares which connect the city of charlottesville. bill: well the suspect, jesse matthew was sported in surveillance video recorded the morning graham vanished. he was arrested in texas. sent back to virginia over the weekend where he is now charged in her abduction. >> so banks are taking an even bigger chunk of your money these days. when you spend a little more than you have, bank overdraft fees hit record highs for the 16th straight year. take a look at this, according to the survey the average overdraft charge is $32.74 even though the average charge if you put it on a credit card is 20 bucks. consumer watchdogs point out this fee is actually higher than the most of goods bought with these cards, resulting in

sky-high interest rates on the bank loan. stuart varney, host of "varney & company" on the fox business network. stuart. >> little bit of background first? bill: martha: what is causing this? >> banks are extremely unpopular. they have been forced to pay over $200 billion in fines and penalties since the crash. they are heavily regulated. they have got to pay for that regulation themselves and it costs a lot of money to come buy with those regulations. that is the background, okay? that is why overdraft charges have now hit another new high. what is it, 32.74 on average. atm fees if you go outside of your network the average fee for that is $4.35 per transaction. but the background they have been, toed into this corner. they have to make money wherever they can, and you the customer, you can be made money out of by the bank which is in dire straits financially. martha: yeah. i mean it is interesting, when you look at it, because it is

easy to, you know, i say i had is easy to prevent this charge from happening to you, you need to not spend more money than you have. so many people use debit cards today. when you're taking money out or paying for something it is out of money you already have, right? >> 75% of these overdraft fees are paid by 8% of frequent abusing customers. so 8% pay 75% of the fees. if you go online, check how much money you've got in our checking account. if you got 15 bucks, don't spend 20 on your debit card. you avoid overdraft fee. if you have got to go outside of the network on an atm, you to the to do it, try avoid going outside of the network. the bottom line, there is intense regulation. there is war on banks. that rebound back on consumers f consumers take care they can avoid these extra charges being lumped on them. martha: the administration as

you point out, has put a ton of regulations on these banks, thinking this will punish big bad banks what they did in 2008, right? now it ends up costing the consumer money anyway. >> they have been punished they have been fined. the banks have not been reformed. and that is the problem. you're paying for it. >> stuart, thank you. >> sure, martha. martha: don't spend more than you have, everybody. especially that 8%. bill. bill: sunny fall day take as very dark turn. a volcano erupting without warning. where this is happening today and how many are now feared dead, martha. martha: top republicans criticizing president obama's isis strategy insisting that he needs congressional approval for u.s. involvement in iraq and syria. we'll talk to a great political panel on that. >> the president hasn't done that. he believes he has the authority under existing resolutions to do what he did.

bill: so 9:30 now on a monday morning. some of our other top stories today. new details for the search for this cop killer. that search area shifting as police hunt for eric frein in the pocono mountains, northeastern pa. they fear the woods could be booby-trapped. he is accused of shooting two state troopers and killing one of them more than two weeks ago. afghanistan's new president has been sworn in after a week long run off and recount. he replacing hamid karzai in the first democratic transfer of power since the u.s. invasion toppled taliban from power in 2001. 30 hikers are feared dead after this volcanic eruption. it came out without warning as crowds were out to enjoy the warm weather. rescuers continue pull victims from ash up to 20 inches deep. >> top republican leaders are saying president obama should call congress back to washington out of their break to debate and

vote on his plan for battling isis terrorists. here is house speaker john boehner on this. >> the president typically in a situation like this, would call for authorization vote, and, go sell that to the american people and send a resolution to the hill. the president hasn't done that. he believes he has the authority under existing resolutions to do what he is doing. >> so to be clear if the president put a resolution forward now you would call congress back? >> i would call congress back. martha: katie pavlich, news editor at townhall.com, fox news contributor. mary ann mash, former advisor to john kerry. welcome to you both. john boehner says it is important in the past. any president would call people back to congress, back into session and have them authorize this action. it is a big deal. >> well, the fact that the republicans do-nothing congress wants to come back and do something should tell you everything. there is only 36 days to the

election as we've been talking about all morning as you have on the show and clear the republicans want to pick a fight with president obama before they want to fight isis. this is about national politics and nothing to do about national security and that is wrong. martha: katy? >> well first off the argument this is do-nothing congress is invalid one and second republicans are supporting president obama and their strikes against isis so i'm not really sure you can say they're fighting them on it. the bottom line here president obama has to welcome congress because they will not come back and put something on the table unless the president gives them something to work with. john boehner, talking about how he wants to see a broader strategy. how he doesn't think what we're trying to do here in eliminating and destroying ieses that the current plan will work just with airstrikes. i think we're going to see president obama needing to go back to congress for further authorization for broader strategy which quite frankly hasn't been lined up or lined out by the president at this point. martha: tim kaine, john barasso saying they need to come back. they need to debate this and

discuss it. because the strategy is so important here in terms of how this is going to be carried out, but a lot of people believe that the politics is on the other side and that harry reid doesn't want to put democrats to a vote and put them in a difficult position ahead of midterms, mary anne? >> i think this is less to do about democrats in tough spots really most of them aren't. the fact this is more about the speckel that would go on in the house of representatives. everybody acknowledges that. this is also about john boehner trying to hold on to his speakership. he is putting this on the table because he knows he will keep the house, republicans are. he wants to keep his tenuous hold on speakership this is something he can offer -- martha: what is the spectacle, mary ann? republicans are supporting the president. everybody is on the same page. this group needs to go. so what is the spectacle thaw anticipate? what would it be? how would it play out. >> not all of them will. and you can see the louie gohmerts and everybody else, who president obama says what his name is, they doubt him and shout him down.

so that would, to the world, how would that look? so the president doesn't need congressional consent. shouldn't seek it at this time. if he changes the mission perhaps, not right now. martha: we saw the last time this went around in syria, david cameron had the same problem. he thought that the parliament would behind him. it didn't happen t was embarrassing and difficult for him, katy. there is that as well. >> sure. we're looking at a bipartisan effort here to bring congress back to look at this as a broader strategygy to know what we're doing and arming the right people and have real debate because the american people are actually very concerned. new poll came out showing 72% of the americans believe we will have to send ground troops in to destroy isis. democrats are in a very tough spot when it comes to these votes. harry reid will not brit it to the floor of the senate to vote. bottom line it is congress's job to authorize military force and the president's obligation to come back if we go forward with broader strategy to ask congress

to debate it and vote on it f there is risk it might not pass okay. but bottom line they have an obligation to debate this in front. american people and lay out a strategy for how we'll move on and go forward. martha: i think that is the bottom line. i think, mary anne, what you're not wanting to see is debate over boots on the ground. many people say it is a little late for that. we already have boots on the ground in this situation. >> well, no. the fact is the president has not talked about, nor authorized ground troops. period, end of sentence. martha: they're already there, mary anne. >> military advisors are there. under the current authorization that goes back to george w. bush, going back to 2001, president obama is well within his authority to do what he is doing at this time. that is the fact here and the american people at this point support him. so he already persuade the country the action he is taking is necessary and that's fine. martha: why would anybody be afraid to have congress come in on it? what is the fear having congress talk about it? that is what they are there for. they will have to authorize and give them money for the rest of

operation, will they not? katy, go ahead. >> republicans are supporting the president on these airstrikes. there is hardly any pushback when it comes to these airstrikes and republicans aren't fighting the president and saying they're wrong, at least not the majority of them. what we're talking about here demand that the president of the united states in his own set out goal of destroying isis come back to congress and talk about how that is growing to get done and then to take a vote on it. because it is going to take more military force. it will not be something to do with airstrikes. almost every military commander has said. the nation's top generals have said. only way to do this is with ground troops. they have to have debate about this on behalf of the american people. >> i find it very interesting that the president said everybody wanted to end these wars in iraq and afghanistan, that was the will of the people and that is why you wanted to carry it out. now you look at polls, the will of the people want to see this group destroyed. they want to see that carried

out. i don't know why the hesitancy to bring back congress and representatives of people weigh in. we have to leave it there. thank you very much. see you next time. bill: memorable moments that need a second look. watch this in baseball to end the regular season. >> yelich. left center, it is well-hit. diving catch! the no-hitter complete. bill: not only was that a phenomenal catch -- martha: phenomenal catch. he knew if i don't catch this the guy won't get a no-hitter. bill: saves it. the first no-hitter in the wash none nationals history. they wait the winner of the wild car series this week. packers and bears, aaron rogers telling packer faithful, relax, chill out, rough start. we got this folks. rogers with four touchdown passes. packers cruising to easy 38-17

win with their rivals in chicago, the bears. frank gore in san francisco with a monster today, including this catch and run. that guy is a beast. try to tackle that guy, forget it. special teams flying for the eagles. darren sproles 82-yard -- how would you like to catch that guy. that game is tight until the very end. final seconds. that eagles looking to score, nick foles has had a great year. 49ers win 26-21. martha: final game for derek jeter and folks in boston were kind and respectful for him. congratulations to him as well. great story. all right, this is a name you haven't heard in a little while, jody arias was spared once. now the convicted killer's life is on the line again. she is ready for sentencing round two. bill: also the balance of power up for grabs in a little more

than a month from now. we'll look at the major senate races including iowa as karl rove breaks down who he thinks will take control in congress early november. >> you're not running against these other people. you're running against me. i am a mother, i am a soldier and i am a independent leader. >> i'm not going to oh president obama anything on election day. you will owe the koch brothers everything.

martha: de jurery selection begins in the penalty phase retrial of convicted murderer jody arias. arizona prosecutors will again seek the death penalty after the first jury deadlocked on deciding her punishment. remember last year arias was found guilty of killing her boyfriend in 2008. she admitted to shooting him in the face after stabbing him 2times, show she claimed she did it in self-defense. the retrial is expected to

stretch into december. bill: 36 days until the midterms. several states will have impact on the balance of power. first tuesday in november, it is about the balance power in congress but specifically about the balance of power in the u.s. senate. you need 51 for a majority. right now you're at seats needed at six. six is the magic number republicans need in order to take that majority. karl rove, former white house deputy sheave of staff, advisor to president george w. bush at home in austin, texas. good morning to you. we've been doing this, started last week, to put the what if scenario in motion here and what i want to show our viewers right now, something that you and many others said for a long time, how do republicans at 55-45 pace, how do they get to the six seats. republicans said west virginia already in the bag, agreed, right? you said south dakota is already in the bag. so too is montana.

now you're at 48. so where do you go now to get the other three seats to get the majority? you could go to arkansas because some of the polling there suggests it is good. you could go to alaska which the republicans have said the poll something good for them as well. and at that point you're 50-50. where else do you go, colorado, iowa, or is it louisiana, or do democrats possibly hold on that seat, 51-49 majority there? as you look at this map now, what do you see behind the numbers that is important to understand, karl? >> well, two things. one is, republicans in the "real clear politics" average now lead in eight democratic-held seats today. that would give republicans 53 in the senate if they held on to the lead in all these races. we've seen that movement in the last couple weeks decidedly towards the republican side. iowa, colorado, alaska, a number of these states have moved. you're right, the montana,

west virginia, south dakota, i don't think they're cooked. i think republicans lead but they have got to run hard right to the end but here are the states that are in the "real clear politics" average republican lead. five point lead in louisiana, in the head-to-head between cassidy and landrieu. 4.7% in alaska. 3.6 in arkansas. 2.2 in iowa and, 0.8, as you can see. these are relatively close races. nothing is settled in these but the movement is all been on the republican direction. then we have three seats where democrats lead but lead is narrowing. north carolina they lead by 3 1/2, new hampshire, four 1/2, michigan 4.7 in the "real clear politics" average. we have 11 seats clearly in play. republicans lead in eight of the 11 and have a real shot. bill: when you were talking i was following, all right? i gave republicans colorado, i

gave them iowa and the other state you marked down there on the polling that seems to do pretty well, that takes you right, that takes you to 53-47 republicans to democrats. >> right. bill: let's take those away for the sake of argument, okay. we'll give colorado to the democrats. we'll give iowa to the democrats as well. what the dems argue, kansas is right now in play. if they're able in beat pat roberts you go 50-50, right now. do you see that as scenario at the moment? >> well that is interesting. the democrats say that they can win kansas. they have an independent candidate there who is desperately trying to avoid looking like a democrat. the last time kansas elected to democrat to the united states senate was in 1932. why growing oil man, the independent is not saying anything about issues. weren't say where he is on keystone pipeline. wants to do something to rein in guns but not what. would not have voted for

obamacare but won't vote to repeal it. voted for 2008 in he says. voted for mitt romney in 2012. there are all kinds of idealogical questions, face issues questions that will put him on the opposite side of kansas votedders. the other thing he has a close tie to a goldman sachs board member who is going to the federal pen and now having to explain why he had a such close relationship with this guy, gupta, who put him on the board of a tax haven company headquartered in the bahamas. the polling in this race immediately after the republican primary showed oman ahead. particularly when the democrats withdrew their formal candidate, a local attorney named chris taylor. but now the race appears to be tightening. but you're right though, it is a wildcard. we'll see how it turns out. bill: too close to call. we really don't know. do you believe, that the candidates the republicans have put in, put up for office at

this point have surprised the democrats in the following sense. they have had to defend territory now that they probably did not expect, maybe even six months ago? do you agree with that or not? >> well, i think so. but look, let's put a cautionary note in here. the democrats knew ty were in for a tough battle. they did not take it foregranted like they did in 2010. they hoped to play around in the republican primaries and end up weaker candidates in places like tennessee or kansas or north carolina -- bill: or new hampshire. >> and they didn't. or new hampshire. they ended up with stronger republican candidates than they expected but this wasn't a question of total surprise. they were trying to limit the battlefield. they didn't succeed in that. the battlefield ask broader than they want it to be and republican candidates, particularly like in alaska, shown them real surprising strength. in the last four polls in alaska since labor day, dan sullivan has led in all four. even in a place like

north carolina where the democrats lead by 3 1/2, they have piled millions upon millions of negative advertising dollars against thom tillis and -- bill: working for kay hagan against to tillis. >> no, it reduced his number but she is stuck at 45, 46. he is now climbing back up. a long way to go yet. in the 30 some odd days left. bill: dig into your hat. we'll check in with you every couple of days. i left the map at 50-50. i think it is that close an you agree. thank you, karl rove live in austin. martha. martha: the trial of a u.s. marine jailed in mexico is entering what experts call a key phase. what a court ordered psychiatrist will add to the proceedings. we're live in ewanna with that plus this. [engine revving] >> oh. [bleep] bill: that is a disaster in the making at a monster truck rally.

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bill: deadly day at this monster truck rally after a giant vehicle loses control, heads straight into the crowd. [engine revving] [screaming] >> whoa! [bleep] bill: you can hear the screams from the spectators as they scatter. that truck veering off course after rolling over a row of cars as you see, then that. at least two adults, one child are dead. more than a dozen others are injured. it happened in the netherland. police questioning now the truck driver. guard fences they say have been put up to keep the crowd safe but a, not a lot can defend

against that. >> attorneys for the u.s. marine jailed in mexico arguing for his immediate release so that he he can receive proper treatment for ptsd. it has been nearly six months now since marine sergeant andrew tahmooressi was arrested. he said he made a wrong turn. accidentally crossed the border into mexico with registered weapons in his truck which he openly claimed to border officials there. william la jeunesse is live in tijuana, mexico. what do we expect in court on this today? >> reporter: well, martha the prosecution psychiatrist will be sworn in by the court this morning. he could see andrew as early as today or tomorrow. if he agrees with the defense psychiatrist diagnosis that andrew has ptsd and can not get treatment in prison, then tahmooressi's attorney will file a motion with the court asking essentially for the case to be dismissed. the judge will have one week to consider that motion and could release andrew. if history is any guide, wheels of justice here in mexico move

rather slowly. on wednesday, a house subcommittee hearing will be held on andrew's behalf. his mother, jill will testify as will someone who served with andrew in afghanistan and tv talk show host montel williams who has been very critical of the situation. the u.s. gives mexico $1.6 billion. 100 million for judicial reform, if taxpayers ask what that bought them, in this case very little, his supporters are growing frustrated. >> what is going on with andrew tahmooressi is an unjust situation. it's wrong. he shouldn't be there. and those that are in a position of power should care about that. they should care about incarcerating someone who didn't commit the crime they have charged him with. >> reporter: the hearing begins here at noon. we'll see what happens. martha, back to you. woo. martha: incredible the money we give them for judicial reform in their country not working very well apparently.

william, many things. bill: so is the president ducking responsibility and blaming others? we'll have a look at that. also? martha: a gruesome beheading, workplace violence or act of terrorism. awful story. we'll debate it. (male announcer) it's happening. today, more and more people with type 2 diabetes

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martha: president obama blaming the inte community for dropping the ball on isis and allowing syria to become, in his words, ground zero for jihadists. welcome to a brand new hour on a monday of "america's newsroom." glad to have you with us, i'm martha maccallum. bill: the president laying the blame on his director of national intelligence, james clapper, who recently admitted underestimating the strength of isis and overestimating the strength of the iraqi army. martha: ed henry is live at the white house for us. so, ed, the president squarely put the blame on clapper for the failure to predict and understand the rise of this group when he is the commander in chief, and a lot had been happening on the ground that pointed to this.

>> no doubt about it. look, factually, jim clapper did say he should have known more sooner. remember in "60 minutes" where he said jim clapper has acknowledged they underestimated the situation. what happened to the word we? he's part of a national security team. obviously, here with the white house. and you've seen a pattern on a whole bunch of stories whether it was healthcare.gov or whatever, basically the white house doesn't take responsibility, says the departments, it's the agencies, they messed up. but bottom line is you now have key lawmakers like republican peter king saying, look, they didn't get it perfect, but they did talk about it months ago, and months ago it was the president saying it was the jv squad. martha: so critics are saying withdrawing u.s. troops, obviously, from iraq led to the rise, they believe, of isis.

but the president says it was not that vacuum that created this threat. why? >> well, one of the reasons is he said this before, but he repeated it last night, that nouri al-maliki, the former prime minister, was really to blame in dividing the iraqi people, but also refusing to sign an agreement to give the u.s. legal immunity for american troops to stay behind. a lot of that is true. on the other hand, when you had last week on "60 minutes," not last night, the former defense secretary leon panetta say, yes, maliki wasn't perfect, but the u.s. should have found a way to leave a residual force behind, that's damaging to the president's case. number two, as you were talking last hour, you now have the u.s. making sure the new afghan president signs this agreement to leave some troops behind in afghanistan. even if they don't want to admit us, they realize now they've got to do that -- martha: they don't want to leave that vacuum in afghanistan as well, and that does say a lot. thanks very much.

bill: meanwhile, the intelligence community firing back, the obama administration had options on the table to target a new terror group in syria as well as isis for the past 18 months. chief intelligence correspondent catherine herridge live on that. catherine, what can we report on this now? >> reporter: well, thank you, bill, and good morning. a military intelligence official tells fox news that the administration did have options on the table to target senior leadership of the khorasan group and isis in the 18 months leading up to the recent strikes in syria. and while the president blamed the intelligence community for upside estimating the threat -- underestimating the threat in that interview, the official who was familiar with the data collection said the threat from isis and khorasan was well documented in the president's daily brief for over a year, but the white house failed to act. it also said the intelligence community pushed hard to identify the leadership of both groups for people like the president, specifically for targeting purposes, and these options were presented to the president's team, and every one of those options, we are told,

was denied until just recently. bill: what is the status of this leader of the khorasan group that operates out of northern syria? there was chatter that he was killed in the airstrikes. true or not? >> reporter: well, the information that we have currently is that both the intelligence community as well as the department of defense is aware of this al-qaeda twitter user, leader of the khorasan group had, in fact, been killed. he was so close to osama bin laden that he's one of the few people that knew about the 2001 attacks, and fox news is told u.s. officials are waiting for additional intelligence to corroborate his death which may include new chatter, a death photo, as well as human intelligence reporting from the region. the president's deputy national security adviser told fox news sunday there is real concern the terrorist group will put out disinformation. >> we want to make sure he's not trying to, in effect, fake his death and go underground, but there are serious indicators

that he was removed. it would be significant. he's a significant leader of the isil effort. >> reporter: he's not a member of isil, and it was confirmed yesterday that he clearly misspoke on fox news sunday. bill: catherine herridge, thank you in washington. >> reporter: you're welcome. martha: what about that new report on intense, on isis and khorasan, how much did the u.s. really know about these groups and for how long? and was there a failure by the intelligence community and james clapper who was the head of tying together all of those groups? that is his job. brit hume is fox news senior political analyst and joins me now. good morning to you, brit. >> hi, martha. martha: is this jim clapper's fault, and should he be held accountable? >> of course not. he may have said he underestimated the will of isis to fight and he may have overestimated the will of the iraqi forces to fight, but as far as isis is concerned and its

advance, consider this: back in january and february dianne feinstein, chairman of the senate intelligence committee, came out of hearings that were held back at that time warning about isis, its growth. isis had taken over ramadi and fallujah in iraq by that time. martha: absolutely. >> so it isn't just the fact that intelligence reports warning darkly about, you know, the potential threat of isis, the actual threat of isis was real and had been demonstrated earlier this year, much earlier this year. so the idea that this is all somehow the fault of james clapper's underestimation of isis and all the rest of it, i think it falls on its face when you look at the facts. so this looks like another attempt by an administration or a white house, i should say, especially that is trying to lay off problems on somebody else as it always seems to try to do. martha: fallujah, mosul, tikrit, all of those cities fell

throughout the course of the summer, and there's -- it's been going on for quite some time. it does raise questions about how involved the president was. we know he does not have a personal oral daily briefing, he says he reads those briefings. dueck he wasn't -- do you think he wasn't prepped enough yesterday, brit? >> i don't know. i heard the interview, and it set off alarm bells with me. croft did point out what clapper had said was that he underestimated the iraqi forces. and i, you know, the president then picked up on that to some extempt. but i, i mean, look, everybody did that. that was, that was clearly a mistake. but the idea that isis' threat to iraq was not apparent because of anything james clapper said or did not say, it seems to me, is nonsense. but this is a familiar pattern. martha: you know, he's also a

president who's been criticized for using the word "i" all the time -- >> my orders. martha: director of national intelligence was not the way he phrased this when he put it off on him. do you think politically he would benefit in this environment, brit, by saying, you know what? i should have been, i should have seen this coming, and i made a mistake? >> well, the public is much more forgiving of that, i think, than it is of people who seem to be dissembling all the time and trying to shift blame. my sense about this is that the president said he made a mistake. but remember this, martha, there is an idea that is very central to the president's foreign policy that undergirds all of this, and that is the idea that american presence in the world, especially militarily, is a big part of the problem. and that reducing it and ending it in places around the world is a big part of the solution.

and, obviously, in iraq that didn't work. and for the president then to come out and say, you know, i made a mistake, i underestimated the threat is a way of saying he underestimated the consequences of the diminishment of the american presence in iraq. and that's something that would undermine his whole thinking on foreign policy which he clings to. martha: one more question for you because, you know, when he did that whole line of questioning when the president was saying, you know, america is the one who always leads, we have the best military, we are the ones in the position to take the lead on this, you know, what did you, what did you think of that? because it was not the way that the president has referred to our role in the world at all in the first five, six years. >> well, and also you note that the administration is now very pleased about the fact that we've got, you know, the agreement with afghanistan -- martha: yes. >> the afghan government to leave a residual force there. one would hope that the scales are falling from the the

president's eyes much as they fell from jimmy carter's eyes back in 1979 when the soviet union invaded afghanistan and the president woke up one morning and thought, oh, my god, these soviet union guys, they're pretty -- they're not what i thought they were. well, he reversed himself and reversed policy. this president has been slow to do that despite circumstances which would suggest that's exactly what he ought to do. so maybe, just maybe things are beginning to dawn on him, and he is beginning to shift his posture. you see that in the fact that he's at least willing to mount a military effort to try to halt isis, although he steadfastly, as you know, is refusing to put u.s. ground troops in the mix although i think nearly everybody who's looked at this from a military standpoint thinks they will probably be needed and that the effort, ultimately, cannot succeed without them. martha: thank you so much. >> you bet. bill: so what will it take to beat isis? bill o'reilly saying he knows what general patton would say about that question. >> so let's win the war.

and that's what george patton would say. let's win the damn war. bill: more from o'reilly on that after the break. that plus this. watch. >> as soon as i realized what was going on and they said that he had possibly beheaded somebody, i mean, i got goose bumps all over my body. martha: the fbi investigating after a man brutally attacks his coworkers. why it's being treated as workplace violence and not terrorism. bill: also air traffic is a mess after a man lights a control center on fire. how long it'll take to get everything back to normal, we'll tell ya. >> the last thing anyone could really expect, you know? literally right next door or even in your neighborhood around here, so, i mean, yeah, it's kind of shocking. a little crazy.

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bill: the faa now will say it'll take about two weeks to get chicago's air traffic back to normal. that ripple effect being felt around the country since chicago's a major hub. on friday an employee set fire to the control center this aurora, illinois, and that employee now faces felony charges for that. >> there's some degree of effort on their part to drag him out of building, but he was conscious. >> apparently it was an isolated incident. there are no indications of terrorists, there is no reason to believe anyone else is involved at this time. bill: well, critical communications equipment damaged that must be replaced. until then, air travelers can

expect significant disruptions in the chicago area. martha: president obama has repeatedly said there will be no boots on the ground in iraq, but brand new polls show that americans disagree. 72% say that they do think that ground troops will end up being used, only 20% say, no. lieutenant colonel ralph peters joins me now. good to have you here this morning. hello there. i also want to play a sound bite about what should be done by bill o'reilly over the weekend. here's what he said. >> if george patton were alive today, he would be saying to president obama, give me the third, i'll go into syria, and i'll wipe 'em all out. it's a worldwide war against jihad, and that's what george patton would say, let's win the damn war. martha: is he right? >> first of all, he'd never make four-star general because he wanted to actually fight. but i think bill is right to

agree that, look, if you go to war, you go to war to win. and there should be no question about that. not the dithering think tank nonsense. the only place i diverge from bill and, by the way, his book is a good read, i strongly recommend it, is, you know, military leaders are kind of like doctors, they're specialized. they have different talents. if we went to war with putin's russia, i'd want a patton. but fighting isis and other islamist terrorists, you want somebody like the men who finally studied the indians and won the indian wars, nelson miles, george cook, mckenzie. so right about we have to fight to win, but i think patton might be -- he's a guy i want in a tank, not special ops. martha: understood. and it seems what we're talking about here is leadership and focus and knowing what your goal is, and we have heard a sort of meandering language from the administration about what that goal is. and i think that does make it difficult for the military and

for the american people to get behind it. we've heard about mitigating, we've heard about containing, we've heard about all of these terms, and we do need to know exactly what the goal is, do we not? >> yeah. anytime you use a four-syllable word to describe a military operation, you're on the road to defeat. three a three-letter word, win. so we're back to bill o'reilly's thesis, which is absolutely right. martha, i think we're seeing with that poll you cited is the common sense of the american people. they recognize even viscerally that this is going to be a long, tough fight, and sooner or later there's going to be some boots on the ground. i'm for special operators, not army divisions at this point. but the administration, i mean, you nailed it when you talked about the importance for focus. what are we trying to achieve? are we trying to truly defeat and destroy isis and related islamist extremists? all for it. even if it takes boots on the ground. are we trying to prop up this

scheming mike foxtrot government in baghdad? well, no. that's not worth the blood of one american soldier because it can't be propped up forever. it's a losing proposition. so i think you've got a lack of strategic clarity in the white house, and an unwillingness to stare intelligence in the face. and finally, utter fecklessness and a lack of courage. i mean, you know, military times, as you know, did a survey that found that only 15% of our men and women in uniform have any faith in the president's policies, his military policies. now, that is stunning. i'll tell you, martha, troops inherently respect the office of the president. it's magic. i mean, it really, really is, and we get down to 15% have some degree of trust in the president, that's horrible. martha: it is really stunning because usually no matter what, the military will say, look, we're here to carry out the orders of the commander in chief, and that's what we'll do. we do what we're told to do, and that is what you hear time and time again, so the outcome of that poll is really stunning.

i want to get o last quick thought on you on this agreement for a status of forces deal with afghanistan, the kind of deal we did not get with iraq. what do you make of it? >> well, you know, it was coming. karzai just didn't want to sign it, but it's very important. it doesn't mean that afghanistan is going to in the long term prove to be a viable proposition. but that small residual force allows us to continue counterterror operations, to give the afghan national army some backbone, because the important thing often isn't americans pulling triggers, it's americans beside the locals pulling triggers to give the locals confidence. i mean, american presence b has a tremendous psychological effect on our people we want to be our allies. martha: colonel peters, thank you. good to see you. >> thank you, martha. bill: 20 minutes past the hour now. hillary clinton said it was her dream to officially become a grandmother, and now she has. young charlotte born over the weekend. the question asked now, will

this change any ambition she has for the white house? yes or no? our political wise men will weigh in on that today. martha: and the frantic search for a beloved real estate agent. this is a bizarre story. she has vanished after going to show someone a home. police naming a person of interest as her family desperately tries to bring her home. >> you were my very first friend, and i love you so, so, so much, and i need you. our family needs you. and i want you to be strong. we will find you.

♪ ♪ bill: there was a strange story happening in arkansas, a manhunt underway for a suspected kidnapper and his alleged victim. beverly carter's a real estate agent, vanished after showing a

home late last week. police now have a warrant out for aaron lewis, a person of interest, said to be shown here. the picture of him was taken after a car crash yesterday, but he disappeared after leaving the hospital because there was no warrant for his arrest, and there's more. carter's family says they've received a series of text messages from her cell phone number after she went missing, but they do not appear to be from beverly. listen. >> time passes by, and the worry builds, and all of a sudden we get these texts from mom's phone, and it's almost joyous. it's like, you know, mom's okay, but then, you know, the reality hits, and we read these texts, and it's just not my mom. >> a former d.c. homicide detective and a fox news contributor. i have to think this is a real estate agent eye worst nightmare. you -- agent's worst nightmare. you're showing a potential client a house, and the woman

never shows up again. 5:30 in the evening, the husband contacts police. >> that's right. he goes over to the house where she was known to be showing this home, and what he found there, bill, was her vehicle and her purse sitting on the seat in the driveway of this house, but she was nowhere to be found. what was really interesting was that two days later when this guy -- his name is aaron lewis, he's 33 years old. when he had this car accident in jacksonville, it was a single motor vehicle accident. police don't know what caused him to have that accident, but what was really interesting was that they did not have the arrest warrant for him at the time. so we're wondering how did he know to run at that point? they took him to the hospital, and then when it was time for him to have his x-rays, he had disappeared, and he hasn't been found since. bill: just to be clear, this is a full two days plus after beverly went missing, right? she showed the house on thursday, this is late saturday,

early sunday morning. >> that's correct. bill: but they had to know she was showing the home to this individual. so why would there not have been a warrant out there? does that make sense to you, rod? >> yeah, it's an excellent question. and the reason is because they did not have any evidence at the time to charge mr. lewis with a crime. it takes about two days for them to do their forensics and things like that and probably get the preliminary results back, so i think that's what happened. so so that's why there's this two-day window, and they were able to get that arrest warrant maybe early sunday, but by then this guy had already taken off. bill: i think that's too late, rod. her car was in the driveway, her purse was inside, and she was gone, missing. hasn't been heard from since. >> that's right. bill: you're getting strange text messages from a stranger you don't know. i mean, you put the common sense together. i mean -- >> oh, absolutely. bill: wouldn't you not think, hey, man, we need to find this woman, and we need to find this guy now? >> that's right. well, i don't think they had anything specific. i don't think this guy used his right name when he probably met with her.

we don't know any of those. those are the unknowns at point. but the police was looking for her and continued to look for beverly at the same time, and they're going to continue to look for this guy, mr. lewis, as well. bill: apparently he has facial injuries sustain inside that accident, so we will see if he gets that man. rod wheeler, our best to the family down in little rock. thank you, rod. >> thank you, bill. martha: president obama pushing ahead with airstrikes against isis, but critics say he needs congressional authorization for that now. will that happen before the midterms, and what impact might it have prettily? -- politically? bill: also, a suspect trying to convert coto workers to islam and beheads one of them after he was fired. an act of terror or workplace violation? you decide. >> i think any rational-thinking american's going to look at this and go this is more than just normal workplace violence. you know what my business philosophy is, reynolds?

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bill: 10:31 in new york. the fbi's now investigating this

beheading in oklahoma, looking for any possible links to terrorism the there. the suspect allegedly attacked his coworkers, beheading one of his victims the day after he was fired. coworkers say he recently tried to convert some of those coworkers to islam, but for now the feds are treating it as workplace violation. we have the outreach director purpose freedomworks, jessica tarlov, political strategist. ladies, good day to both of you. how do you view this? >> first of all, my thoughts and prayers go out to the families of the deceased, but this isn't rocket silence. clearly, this is a lone terror act from an individual, and this is on the heels of an announcement from isis on september 21st calling for what they say kill disbelieving american. and also on the heels of publicizing beheadings in iraq. i mean, clearly, this individual has committed terrorist acts.

how many clues does our country, does our administration need? bill: can you dispute that, jessica? >> i mean, i haven't done a full investigation, and that investigation hasn't been done yet. i think to say clearly this is a terrorist attack might be jumping the gun there. the fbi has gotten involved, but we have seen this last week. it suggests that it's possible, but until we have concrete evidence, i don't think that we should be saying that. bill: and the one thing, you think about nidal hasan and fort hood and workplace violence -- i'll let you address this, but let me make this point, we did not know a whole lot about nidal hasan, the more we leshed about him -- learned about him, the connection was obvious. we are still learning about this man. >> we are. the first place to start was his facebook page. -littered with all kinds of terrorist comments and photos and praising the actions of what isis is doing, and he is

mimicking what he was reading and hearing in regards to these acts. and what he did is absolutely outrageous. how many beheadings do we have in america following on the heels, as i said before, of what isis did -- bill: this is the danger, and the point is well taken. he was fired the day before, so he had a grudge to settle there, clearly, from his perspective. but the point is well taken. >> absolutely. bill: when you've got people all over social media calling on westerners to act -- >> yeah. i mean, he said that he was against america, said he was against israel. i mean, that's not -- that also doesn't make someone a terrorist at this point. it just seems fast to get to that. bill: would you admit, though, that this administration is loathe to cast islam in a negative light? >>y. [laughter] yes. listen, it's coming from the top, bill. manmade contingency plan overseas, workplace violence. this isn't workplace violence, beheading someone. these are acts of terrorism, and

i say there is more to come if our law enforcement, our federal agencies don't get involved and do more to protect americans. this is coming from the top -- >> but it could also be workplace violet in a more hyperviolent culture. i mean, things have changed. bill: do you think the administration's been -- it's relate sent, it's cautious. >> i mean, why shouldn't they be? the majority of muslims are not terrorists. i mean, the religion itself -- >> [inaudible] >> i understand no one's saying that, but when we immediately jump to that, you are by implication suggesting that's a possibility -- >> i'm thinking of the boston bombers, bill, and russia even gave warnings to america about their intentions. there are -- flags are out there, the red flags are out there. bill: let's see what the fbi comes up with. i want you also to react to what happened last night on "60 minutes" with steve croft. just listen to this answer about america. >> we are the indispensable

nation. we have capacity no one else has, our military is the best in the history of the world, when trouble comes up anywhere in the world, they don't call beijing, they don't call moscow, they call us. bill: sounds like we're exceptional. >> well, it's nice to hear the president say that, and i completely agree. i think american values are top of the heap. his point, i mean, using moscow and beijing is intentional, and it's important. i mean, we are at this moment, you know, taking down our military spending while they're amping theirs up. bill: he has dropped those two countries repeatedly -- >> i mean, they're a pair. bill: for those who bang on him for casting the greeks and the british as exceptional, have they now been served six years later? >> well, it's ironic that obama is making those comments that we're an exceptional country and also that we should be policing the world. i disagree that we should be policing the world, and for him

to come out and basically throw our intelligence under the bus saying that, you know, basically they messed up, it wasn't me, he's been briefed for years of what has been going on with isis, and he had his head in the sand. here we are. bill: he did not say the word "exceptional," but if you read between the lines -- >> it's american exceptionalism. bill: -- our role in the world is unique and needs to be embraced. >> absolutely. bill: 22 before the hour. martha: well, pressures ramping up for congress to authorize strikes against isis. chief congressional correspondent mike emanuel with more on this. congress is gone until after the midterm elections at this point, they're back in their home districts. is anybody in leadership willing to come back sooner than that? >> reporter: house speaker john babier says -- boehner says he'd be happy to have congress authorize the if the commander in chief seeks it.

>> the point i've been making is that this is a proposal that the congress ought to consider. >> to be clear, if the president put a resolution forward, you'd call the congress back? >> i'd bring the congress back. >> reporter: boehner says typically the commander in chief requests authorization and sells it to the public, and then congress goes to work debating and voting on it. martha: what are some of the senators saying about the authorization for the mission in syria? >> reporter: some are quite alarmed. chris murphy says more than a strategy is needed to defeat isis, he doesn't think the obama administration has that for syria at this point. other key senators are also weighing in. >> we ought to be there, we ought to be debating it. the only caution i would take, chris, is the last time we had a vote on whether or not to authorize force right before an election was in the midterms in 2002 when congress voted for the invasion of iraq. i don't think that was congress'

finest moment. >> reporter: wyoming republican senator john barrasso says he doesn't think senate majority leader harry reid wants to have this debate or this vote before the midterm election, but barrasso says congress has an obligation, and no lawmaker should be left off the hook. martha? martha: mike, thank you. bill: one candidate pulling ahead in a decisive senate race in the latest poll. who's got the edge after a big debate in iowa? we'll tell you about those numbers and what it might mean for the midterms if it plays out. martha: and the feds conducting a study on how to ride a bike. you won't believe how much money they have spent on the study on how to ride a bike. ♪ ♪

bill: so the federal government is usg $300,000 of taxpayer money to

study riding a bicycle. the national science foundation saying that looking at how humans ride a bike will help designers improve the bicycle which it says will result in positive impacts on your life span and health care costs. science, space and technology committee chairman lamar smith disagrees saying the government obviously, nsf, has, quote, gone off the road. taxpayers are paying for it, but you can come to new york and jump on a bike for, like, a buck and ride down that old to avenue right there with the cars driving by at 50 miles an hour. martha: oh, my gosh. bill: good luck with that. martha: i didn't pay anything to ride a bike, did you? bill: nope. martha: it was agree in my driveway. all right, there's that. and how about this? is a brand new poll that shows iowa republican joanie earnest pulling ahead in a key midterm race according to "the des moines register" poll. take a look at these numbers. ernst is now leading democratic congressman bruce braley by 6% at 44-38.

meanwhile, 12% of the voters say they are undecided at this point. we'll have the wait until the big night to see how they break, and during a fairly heated debate last night, both candidates trying to separate themselves from certain political allegiances. >> president obama's name is not on the ballot, and i'm not going to owe president obama anything on election day. you're going to eau the koch -- owe the koch brothers everything. >> i will stand up and do what's right for iowans, not for california extreme environmentalists, not for senator harry reid, not for president obama. martha: that's how it goes on the campaign trail. ed rollins was a campaign manager for reagan bush in 1984, joe trippi is former howard dean campaign manager, both are fox news contributors. hello, gentlemen, good morning. good to have you here. so, ed, how do you think this joni ernst thing is doing in iowa? this is tom harkin's seat. this is a long-held democratic seat. that would be a big deal.

>> first of all, she's a tremendous candidate. i had dinner with her a couple of months ago in washington, d.c., and she's one of the most impressive candidates i've met in a long, long time. she is a farmer, she basically is a state senator, she's a lieutenant colonel in the national guard, she's an iraq war veteran. there's two republican districts and two democratic districts, there's a very liberal senator who's being replaced here and grassley, the more conservative. so it's a swing state, and i think her lead in "the des moines register" poll is indicative of the fact that she's moving forward and has a great shot at winning. martha: we'll see. she's opened up a nice lead for herself here, joe. what do you think about braley? >> well, look, this one has got democrats concerned. there have been other places like north carolina where we're feeling a lot better, but this one has eroded enough now that i think there's real, real concern here that braley's got to get

back into this. and a lot of this was caused by some mistakes he and his campaign made. but she's doing a good job. part of the problem for braley is he's a congressman who's got to defend washington at a time where people don't -- regardless of what party people are in, they don't like anything about washington right now. joni ernst from all the things that ed said about her is a local state senator. that's benefiting her right now and put braley on the defensive. martha: yeah. so that's the spotlight for the moment. go ahead, ed. >> one other big issue there is braley, for whatever reason in all the veterans' crisises and what have you, is on the veterans committee, and he's missed 75% of the meetings. and farmers in iowa, you get up every day, and you go to work. the fact that he's not meeting those assignments has become a very, very negative issue there. martha: interesting. that is the spotlight on iowa for the midterms, but just looking ahead to 2016 for the moment, the name dr. ben carson

has been tossed around, and chris wallace asked him some pointed questions over the weekend. here's his response to one of them. >> wouldn't putting ben carson in the oval office be akin to putting a politician in an operating room and having him perform one of your brain surgeries? >> i don't think so. i think what is required for leadership is wisdom, and the ability to assemble an appropriate team, ability to listen and an ability to make wise decisions. martha: joe, what do you think about that exchange? >> well, i thought he answered it very well. look, i think this guy, it would be good to see him in the primary on the republican side. i think he, he's a -- look, i don't want the strongest candidate, but i think he would lead a good, strong debate and whether he merges or not would help the republicans define themselves better in the 2016

cycle. martha: ed, what do you think? would you like to see dr. car soften run? >> i'm a big fan, and i think he's got a very powerful voice and a very important voice. i do think in the presidential primaries we've got a lot of very serious candidates, governors, senators, what have you. i think he'd have a hard time raising the money, going through the process of putting it together, and seldom times does a first-time candidate ever do well. i think he could be diminished, and i think his voice is too important to have it diminished in a primary process. martha: one quick thought on hillary clinton. the us on some channels over -- the suggestion on some channels over the weekend she might decide not to run because she is a grandma which i find very interesting. i don't remember anyone saying that about mitt romney, joe. >> no, you know, i've been one of the people who are not sure, i'm maybe one of the only people left in america that doesn't think she's going to run. i think that is sort of a strange way of putting that out there, but i don't think that she's decided yet to go.

>> i don't know whether she's decided or not, but i think it's a very powerful message that i'm looking to the future for my grandchild, my new granddaughter, it gives her a very powerful message, and i think she's going to run. martha: we will see. and congratulations to her oning with a grandmother -- on being a grandmother and to the clintons. it's a big moment for any family, and i'm sure they're enjoying it. bill: eleven minutes now before the hour. eric shawp's working for jon scott today. eric: underestimating isis. you know, president obama last night admitting the terror group operated under the radar amid all the cay goes in syria, but the commander in chief falling a bit short of taking the blame. what is next in the war on terror? plus, deciding the fate of jodi arias. jury selection begins for the penalty phase of the retrial of that convicted killer. how do you think the media coverage will affect the seating of an impartial jury?

and is that respiratory virus sweeping the country, is it now associated with paralysis in children? bill: pro-democracy demonstrators are not deterred in the face of a lot of tear gas and rubber bullets. this is the scene in hong kong which some are calling the biggest political challenge for china in 25 years. while every business is unique,

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pro-democracy demonstrators squaring off with police on sunday, and this is what happened. you have tens of thousands accusing beijing of changing the rules on who can run for office in hong kong. david piper streams live out th. what is the latest on the protests, david? >> reporter: hi, bill, yes. it remains a very tense situation in hong kong at this hour. protesters remain on the streets, they're blocking many routes into the central business district and also other areas. the hong kong government continues to urge them to leave, but so far they have refused. and on sunday, as you said, riot police tried to clear them. they used pepper spray and tear gas to try to disperse them, but that fouled, bill. bill: what is behind these demonstrations, david? >> reporter: bill, it all comes down to democracy. when the british left, china

agreed to one country to assist them, 50 years moving towards dems accuracy, and in the last -- democracy, and in the last month or so the chinese authority have moved the goalposts, as you would say, and they're saying that the next chief executive will be voted by the people, by a committee that they support and control will choose the candidates. and that's why so many people are so angry in hong kong, bill. bill: it grows by the day. the possible resolution or solution could be what? >> reporter: very difficult to see a solution at the moment. it's really china's call. they pull all the strings there, and they've got a strong leadership at the moment in beijing, and they won't want to show any sign of weakness. bill: david piper watching that all from bangkok, thailand. we'll see what happens next. martha? martha: we are waiting now for a major speech that will take place at the u.n. israel's prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, addressing the general assembly, and he's all fired up after friday's

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well, knowing gives you confidence. start building your confident retirement today. ♪ >> well if you're like me you started off your week with a nice big fat cup of coffee. it got a bit better. in case you hadn't heard, today is national coffee day. several national retailers head out free cups of coffee including mcdonald's, dunkin' donuts and krispy kreme. if you have a favorite, it would be a good day to say hello. not sure why we need a national coffee day. every day is coffee day in america. apparently someone voted, yes, all in favor of national coffee day. bill: gets me out of bed, right? martha: we're thankful for it. bill: this story wrought to you by starbucks. thank you the local barista.

we've got to run. we thought george clooney looked very happy. martha: happy for them. beautiful couple. have a great day, everybody. "happening now" starts right now. eric: president obama now admitting his administration both underestimated the threat of the radical islamic terrorists of isis and overestimated the ability of the iraq's army to fight them. hello, everyone, i'm eric shawn in for jon scott. >> i'm shannon bream in for jenna lee. but the president stopped short taking the blame for himself and calling out members his intelligence team for dropping the ball and saying us air strikes are inadvertently helping syrian president bashar al-assad who is accused of war crimes. u.s. fighters hitting four different provinces in northern and eastern syria. conor powell begins our coverage from the middle east bureau.