devices and track you and they know what you buy and then they can sell it to people. >> can i have this? >> absolutely. >> we have the halloween parade tomorrow. join us. >> so long. bill: thank you, guys. they are getting ready for a showdown. a nurse being monitored to ebola says she'll not submit to a quarantine without a legal fight. casey hickox says her legal rights are being violated. martha: this could get very interesting. casey hickox refuses to listen to the state officials she says the science doesn't back up this quarantine decision against her. >> individuals who had direct contact with ebola patients stay in their home and avoid public

contact until the 21-day for potential incubation has passed. we are seeing now that other states are adopting this common sense approach. martha: the bellevue hospital in new york city has been central to this story. she had quite a bit to say in maine. >> reporter: kaci hickox and her boyfriend just left her home to go for a bike ride. she says she is not trying to put anyone at risk because she has no symptoms and she self-monitors every day. hickox says she is willing to make compromises like only travel in her own car, and not take public transportation but she says it's unnecessary and

unfair to hold her prisoner telling a group of reporters i'm not about to stand here and let my civil rights be violated when it's not science based. the state health commissioner has a different perspective. >> concerns about the lack of reliability and the lack of trusting in the information that's been received and the basis upon which you determine risk is the ability to know the history of any individual's exposure. you need to be able to have trust and credibility in that information. that makes her a higher risk. >> reporter: officials said they were filing a court order to allow main state police to arrest hickox if she tries to leave her home. but this morning she went for a

bike ride. martha: i guess there is nobody surrounding that house preventing her from leaving because they don't have the authority to do that. >> reporter: the order hasn't been issued yet but maine state police are still there. one of her attorneys said the quarantine conditions are unconstitutional and illegal and the state of maine is infringing on her liberties. but hickox says she'll continue to abide by cbs guidelines. she also said she would like to go back to sierra leone and treat ebola patients there. dr. spencer came home symptom free just like hickox but developed ebola a week later. martha: that's the reason for the quarantine period. bill: the nurse raising hackles

in prime time. bill>> reporter: if public healh authorities in the u.s. deem a 21-day quarantine period so be it. miss hickox should be taken into custody. but she'll be because the feds have no ebola policy at all. martha: a doctor who survived ebola says nurse kaci hickox has no symptoms at all. >> the science suggests she is not a risk to anyone at this time. in that sense i support her contentions. she is not a risk. the reason you confine someone is because they are a risk. martha: she is not a risk at this time which could be the

operative word. we'll debate whether the nurse should be forced to stay under that quarantine. bill: what do you think? is she selfish or practical. should that nurse be held in quarantine? weigh in and let us know what you are thinking. five days left before the polls open across the country. north carolina between kay hang the incumbent and thom tillis. this will be the most expensive race ever with the price tag exieexceeding $100 million. >> what are they spending all that money on in north carolina. they inundated north carolina with raid oh ads and tv ads.

it's the political action committees supporting or opposing kay hang and thom tillis. the polls haven't moved that much. hagan has been ahead a couple points and tillis has been ahead here and there. in some media markets there is literally no more ad space to buy. there are no more ad times on radio and tv. this time next week everyone in north carolina will be relieved to have it all over. bill: you look at the early voting. generally speaking republicans feel good about' georgia and north carolina. democrats are traditionally good at early voting and they have been since early voting has become a phenomenon in our

elections. republicans are seeing better numbers than they did in 2010. the difference i'm not entirely convinced things are better for democrats in oklahoma and georgia. you have got better registration numbers. in georgia you have got more black voters registering and they tend heavily to vote democrat. but the question is do they get to the polls. and i'm not hearing that. in fact there was an early voting day in atlanta sunday that they opened up for sunday voting in one atlanta area county and only 1,700 people voted. it was farb fewer than they expected. i think this is a place where republicans can be hopeful as well. >> you probably look at that early voting and tuned what you are fleerk anyway. if you look at poll closings tuesday night. if kay hagan wins in the north

carolina that will give optimism towards the democratic cause. at the same time, when the polls close in new hampshire, if scott brown beats jeanne shaheen that could be the sign of a republican wave. do you see it the same way, michael? >> i can see where kay haig knowledge wins in north carolina. i do think if you look at the raw numbers, republicans are on track to win six states, south dakota, montana, louisiana, arkansas and alaska. they are in good position in colorado and iowa. then you are talking about much better numbers than just barely getting over that majority. so in that sense republicans don't really need north carolina to have good numbers. i think it will come down to the

wire in north carolina and republicans do have some sort of advantage with mow hen actual in the other states. martha: make sure you are here where you need to be on election night. bret baier, megyn kelly, they will be hosting our coverage. bill will be working at the boards. very interesting questions you will hear americans' response to. george will, dana perino and even more. bill: we have a big bus. we'll drive it from washington, d.c. up to new york tuesday morning. it could be the first shot in the campaign for 2016. jeb bush taking a jab at hike. -- a jab at hillary clinton.

plus there is this political fallout today. martha: you hear the reaction on the ground as everybody knew that's not what that was supposed to look like. what nasa is saying after the cargo mission blew up 6 seconds into launch. bill: jody earn joad jody ernstn bobraley. >> we can do better than that and i will do better as your next:united states senator. shopping online is as easy as it gets. wouldn't it be great if hiring plumbers,

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martha: the failure of that rocket launch sparked a major investigation. incredible execs motion. the company that owns the that cargo ship is called orbital sciences. it was the first major setback

in nasa's program that used commercial rockets. it carried equipment and student science projects. >> i'm jodi ernst, i grew up castrating hogs on an was farm so when i get to washington i'll know how to cut pork. cling to a slight lead over democrat bruce braley. that seat has been held by democrat tom harkin for three decades. good morning to you. >> good morning, bill. bill: quinnipiac has you up with a 4-point edge.

what do you see breaking this race five days out? >> it's going to be a tight race but we are on a 99-county tour. i'm sharing my message across all 99 counties around iowa and that will make a huge difference. i think we'll finish strong and i'll be next united states senator from iowa. bill: is that a prediction? >> that's a prediction. bill: we also found in our fox polling if the president's policies were on the ballot, would they vote for or against. 58% said they would vote against those policies. do you believe people are voting for you or against the commander-in-chief? >> i think they are doing both. president obama has a low approval rating in iowa. congressman braley has supported him and his failed policies and

iowans want to see a change. in they want someone with experience on foreign policy and military affairs. most iowans feel america is moving backwards. bill: the president ran on change six years ago. what would you change? >> i think we need a lower taxes and a balanced budget and a strong national defense. bill: you have a popular governor terry branson. polls suggest he will win handily. are you drafting off of him? >> i'm either drafting off of him or he's drafting off of me. we have a strong governor who has been supportive my

candidacy. we are reaching out to every he iowan possible and make sure they know our message of the iowa way versus the failed policies of barack obama. they made a clear in a number of editorials they would not be supporting my candidacy. it's important for me to be out on the road meeting with voters across iowa, allowing them to reach out and shake my hand and ask me tough questions. it's better to be on the road than to sit in front after board that was not going to endorse me. bill: no second thoughts on that decision? >> no second thoughts. we met with other editorial boards and i'm getting tough questions every dayton the road and i feel very good about where

we are. bill: hillary clinton says this disqualifies a candidate when they do not sit down for such a meeting. >> i sat down the board during the primary and did very well. i'm meeting with other editorial boards as i have time. spending time with iowans is the most important thing, not a roomful of editors sitting in an office building in des moines. bill: we invited your opponent bruce braley to join us as well. we hope he takes us up on our invitation. thank you for your time out of manly iowa. martha: why the threat of isis may be emerging on street corners around the world. general jack keane joins us next on that. plus on a lighter note ...

>> bill: they have become a dynasty. three world championships in five years. it's party time in san francisco. [ male announcer ] meet carl,

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homeland security to build up security at federal buildings fashionwide. jihadists are looking to join is very but they got a specific message from that terror group as to what to do. >> they got a note back from the leaders of isil, stay in australia, we want you to randomly kidnap people off the street, behead them. videotape it and send it to us for further propaganda. martha: general jack keane, retired four star general. and fox news military analyst. good to have you here this morning. necessity arrested people in australia, 20-some people they thought were connected to this plot to go out on to the streets and behead them and send the video stout which is an incredibly powerful tool.

>> it indicates they believe they have enough fighters to deal with what they are coping with in iraq and syria. the value they place on symbolic demonstration attacks in countries that are opposing them on the battlefield. the fact of the matter is these things are very difficult to prevent as we recognize in ottawa and new york city. martha: the british soldier who was attacked in the streets by his lambic radicals. it hit so close to home to a nation of people used to sending off our you proud forces to defend news other places. it many the possibility of street corner violence that's so erie to people. for local law enforcement to be in touch with our intelligence agencies in terms of who are the potential trouble makers. somebody you might want to keep an eye on and we haven't got a

great record on that the past. >> we have done some of this right in the past. we have to educate those communities first of all on what to look for and most this is common sense when you have somebody moving towards jihadist thought and jihaddist peach, this is what it looks like and someone should be alerted to that fact. that's number one. number two is we have got to stay -- we have to stay have much involved in social media and web sites and follow the leads that takes us to so we can identify these people before these attacks. i think we have to push back on this narrative. we have to deglamourize isis. did the they know isis routinely even slaves women for the purpose of raping them. did they know isis crucifies men and women.

the barbaric behavior has to be out there so they can understand what's happening. martha: you can see the horrific pictures of crucifixions happening in the streets. so why isn't that narrative penetrating the american consciousness? it's an easy narrative to pick up and point out to people. >> reporter: the president had three parts to the speech. we all focused on the obvious one. the kinetic one. but the strategy speech is going after the money and second was to under mine their ideology. the government has some people do this well. we have people that routinely change people's attitudes and behaviors and inspire them to buy something and do something with their lives and that's called advertising. martha: that will be determined as an anti-muslim campaign.

that's the way that kind of thing will be twisted. >> this could be very sophisticated to deglamourize. >> i is. we should not stand for the kind of rubbish they are putting on. thank you very much, general. we'll see you soon. bill: jeb bush is talking and he's taking a shot at hillary clinton. a preview perhaps of 2016. plus there is this ... >> it pops up ... hits the ball. giants win! martha: lots of happiness across the board upon the san francisco side. the world series big dramatic finish. we'll talk about it when we come

back.

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martha: a nurse defies the state's quarantine in maine. she decided to go out for a bike ride with her boyfriend. we'll bring you that news as it continues this morning. bill: new economic numbers. the economy still number one. the effect of that bond buying program which means at the end much this no they will stop printing money. a big jump in defense spending. also the number of people applying for jobless benefits rising slightly for the week. we'll watch the markets. now they are open in new york city and we'll see what effect that has moments away.

martha: we are getting interested in the potential 2016 matchups. so jeb bush has been talking a bit more lately and seizing on controversial comments that were made by hillary clinton. she said jobs were created in this country not by businesses. here is the former secretary of state during a campaign events this past weekend. >> don't let anybody tell you, you know, it's corporations and businesses that create jobs. martha: here is jeb bush firing back at a campaign event in colorado. >> the former secretary of state was campaigning in massachusetts where she said don't let them tell you businesses create jobs. well, the problem in america is that not enough jobs are being created. they are created by businesses where people's incomes rise

where they can live a life of purpose independent of government. that's the mission. martha: doug schoen is a form adviser to bill clinton and monica crowley is an editor for the "washington times." it's clear bush will decide around the new year. but this is as close as we have seen so far to a little bit of a punch against hillary clinton. >> i would say this is the potential starts of the campaign. hillary has the problem of trying to figure out an economic message to blunt the populism of elizabeth warren. jeb bush has to prove himself to conservatives. nothing is easier than to attack

admittedly a foolish statement by the secretary that she quote cleaned up a day later. martha: do you think this is a soft punch? >> i saw it written, jeb bush takes a jab at hillary clinton. jeb bush is a bush and he's a gentleman. george h.w. bush very close to clinton. it will take a lot for him top go after her and tear into her as any republican nominee is going have to do to win. hillary clinton won't have any problem tearing into him. so the question for jeb should he choose to run, how badly dose want this and is he willing to go of after her in the way modern politics requires. martha: so you have got one

potential candidate who is sometimes difficult to detect what his true feeling are. if he he's going after someone, then we have this ... >> so turn around, get your 15 minutes of fame, then maybe take your jacket off, roll up your sleeves and do something for the people of this state. now, rinse, everybody, what we need ... good, there has been 23 months since then when all you have been doing is flapping your mouth and not doing anything. you want to have the conversation later i'm happy to have it, buddy. but until that time sit down and shut up. there is about 1,000 things i'll do tonight. going to dinner with you is about number 1,001. martha: a councilman who has

been outspoken about governor christie and helping the victims of hurricane sandy. he held a big sign up in front of the governor's face while he was talking. obviously he was irritated. but some people are saying if you are that thin skinned you better forget iowa and new hampshire. he i have run successful presidential campaigns. you can't go through an elect fighting with everyone believing if you are somehow candid and take people on like that that it will work to your benefit. martha: i hear what you are saying. but i think americans are tired of professional politicians who say nothing than say the right thing all the time and dance around. i think there is a lot of folks at home who say good for you. >> reporter: there are a lot of people who just said we have

needless con front nation our system. we don't need this endless fighting. we need to solve problems and not as the governor said, flap gums and attack. martha: david axlerod brought it up, he's an angry man. be careful of the angry man. >> when democrats look at republicans, conservatives they perceive to be a threat they paints them as evil or side. now there is a third cat gorive which is angry. but i think a lot of americans are angry about the track the country is on. i think they find his straight talk refreshing. he's very jersey and that will be an interesting foil to the first person we spoke about, jeb bush. maybe he's too much of a gentleman, maybe chris christie

is not enough of a gentleman. but he would be a refreshing and energetic force in the republican primary fan force. >> of the other candidates to be more straight talkers. martha: i think about john mccain and mitt romney. >> just be yourself. i give christy a lot of credit for sticking to who he is. martha: jeb bush is, too. so we'll see. bill: game 7 for the ages. worth a second look. late last night, here is how it went. >> popped up! giants win! bill: 3-2 the final in kansas city. the royals have the tying run 90 feet from home but he never got

close to home. madison bumgarner throwing three scoreless innings. the final out leading in the 2. this in california, late night. wild scene downtown san francisco. the gam san francisco chronicle saying dynasty. the third championship in five years. that's tough to do in any sport at the professional level today. kansas city ... "almost home." martha: i predict a lot of babies will be named madison in the coming years. martha: how did that statistic

hold up about home team, winning since the 70s. bill: the last team to lose a game six and win a game 7 on the road was the 1975 cincinnati reds at fenway park. and san francisco is the first team to do it since then. they were shot out 10-0 and came back and won last night. martha: i think i owe you a dollar. some free m & ms. we have been watching this throughout the last couple weeks. molten rock, it's creeping towards people's homes. it's like the blob. but it's threatening to cut a town in half in hawaii. bill: healthcare costs on the rise. our next guest says you won't know it until after the election. >> we have to pass the bill so

you can find out what is tonight away from the fog of the controversy.

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martha: western north carolina is bracing itself for what could be the first snow of the season. the national weather service is putting out a winter storm watch for a dozen counties. it's putting a dam per on the fun. forecasters are calling for a half foot in the higher elevations there. people are preparing for icy roads and possible power outages. it sounds like a lot of fun. you go trick-or-treating you better bundle up. bill: healthcare costs rising in spite of the affordable care act. but you may not know it until november 15. the government is keeping

insurance companies from telling you about the spike coming in healthcare costs. grant borne represents insurance companies across the country. good morning to you in chicago. we saw the story pop a few of weeks ago. has the government told understand companies not to talk about a rate increase? >> i don't know exactly what's going on with the mechanics behind the scenes. what i do know is the open enrollment was supposed to start october 1. they moved it out to november 15. and so we are a couple weeks out. we have yet to see the pricing on the new plans which i find puzzling. bill: are hiding something or not. >> i don't know if they are hiding anything. but behind the scenes what we are hearing is rates are going up. what we are seeing own renewal rates in some cases is double digits.

for some small companies we have seen rate increases in the cripple digits. bill: when you look at the law, what the president said, he said the rate of the increase will not be as great. mr. it or not? >> here is what happened. there has been significant cost increases. back when the law was passed a flame could buy insurance for $500 a month, now it's roughly $5,000 a month. the good news is people are having access to a lot better coverage. they were able to cover preexisting conditions. we can help clients we couldn't help before who used to get turned down. so there are benefits to that piece of the law. however there is a gigantic cost increase associated with it. bill: there's some goods and bad. that's fair and balanced. you are seeing positives but you

are also seeing necessary tistles. you are getting coverage for things you don't need. in your view is that something that washington may change which may keep the cost lower. >> no doubt. we can help people who need coverage who are sick. the bad thing is people don't want to pay for maternity, infertility, pediatric braces. stomach stapling, unlimited mental illness, chemical dependency. now the government is saying you need to have those benefits and you are required to pay for them. unless you are lucky enough to get a subsidy. bill: why was all of that put into it? what's the rationale for that? >> the rationale was the government was trying to get the governmenthe -- trying to get ey

to do one thing. you would bite through healthcare got governor and they would take over the system. you descronlts to buy from the government. if you go to an independent agent, they are all independent. you can go to an independent agent and we are impartial. so if you want to get a government plan we can go in the back door of healthcare.gov and get i a subsidy within 20 minutes. you don't have to go directly to healthcare.gov because these folks work for the government. there are solutions outside what the government is trying to get you to believe you have to do. bill: grant born, thank you. thanks, out of chicago. >> i appreciate you, thanks. martha: looks like something out of a disaster movie. a river of smoldering lava in

hawaii. it threatens to destroy everything in its path and it's not stopping anytime soon. bill: an anonymous white house official dishing out harsh words to benjamin netanyahu. the administration just brushing it off. >> they are look find out who leaked information. big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift?

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martha: overlooked by millions of people in new york city. scientists discovering a new

species. the now found leopard frog living on staten island. these frogs thrive near the ocean. they were able to survive diseases that wiped out other amphibians. a new species. martha: an ancient culture. he's happy he's delineated as being different. a 2,000 degree river of lava is close to swallowing up dozens of homes in hawaii. william lajeunesse has the latest in our west coast newsroom. what a story for these families. incredible. report rrp considering a baby can crawl faster than this la rate's no car chase. the village of pahoa, a former

sugar cane field. the flow began in june but dates back to an eruption 30 years ago that continues to spew a million feet of lava upstream every day. that flow could last another 5 or 500 years. legend has it the god palai is inside the volcano kilauea. >> it's a quiet village in a rural community. we farm, fish, hunt. >> reporter: about 60ing inial guard have been brought in to keep order and keep people out who shouldn't be. martha: what about the people

who live in pahoa? >> reporter: officials are allowing people to stay in their homes until they can't any longer. tourists are flocking to the lava to see tonight action but are not allowed to get close. in the past the lava has flowed south into the ocean. the current flow is moving east and is likely to cut highway 30 making it impossible to get to hilo. look what it did to the town of kalapana turning a lush garden into black rock. pahoa will likely be the same over time. bill: new reports on how suspected terrorists returned too the battlefield in syria. martha: president obama's ambassador in iraq says he

warned the white house wee repeatedly by the rise of the career group isis but his warnings went unheeded. he joins us live in america's newsroom. ok,

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martha: nato on high alert as russia increases its air presence in europe. fighter jets and strategic bombers spotted over key bodies of water including the norwegian sea and the atlantic ocean. take a look at that map. nato responding, they have repositioned some resources of their own. it is unclear why russia is flying those aircraft in this region, but the military muscle raising questions about it as tensions between the east and west already, of course, very high over the issues in crimea and ukraine. we're going to have a live report coming up on what is going on with these russian aircraft from the military moments away. but we begin with the shocking new revelations that as many as 30 former gitmo detainees are now fighting with

isis on the ground in syria. alarming report this morning, and we welcome you, everybody, brand new hour of "america's newsroom," i'm martha maccallum. bill: and i'm bill hemmer. more than 600 suspected terrorists have been released out of gitmo in total, and intelligence sources estimating 180 of them have returned to the battlefield with a handful making it into the country of syria. national security correspondent jennifer griffin is live at the pentagon now. jennifer, what have you learned about this? >> reporter: well, bill, fox news has learned the u.s. intelligence and defense community suspect as many as 20 to 30 former guantanamo bay detainees released within the last two to three years have joined forces with isis and militant groups inside syria, cementing fears that the u.s. military is once again encountering militants taken off the battlefield and released from gitmo. according to several well-placed current and former intelligence officials, it's a mixed picture.

some are sporting the al-qaeda -- supporting the al-qaeda-linked news rah front, and some of the detainees have chosen to help from outside the country, financing operations and supporting the isis propaganda campaign. in fact, recent videos of western hostages beheaded by isis showed them wearing orange jump suits. there are now 149 prisoners held at guantanamo bay, almost 90 are from yemen. of the 620 detainees released from guantanamo in recent years, u.s. defense officials estimate 180 have returned or are suspected to have returned to the fight. officials say the former detainees who have joined isis and other al-qaeda-linked groups in syria were originally released to six countries in europe, egypt and tunisia. they were deemed too native to be released to their countries of origin.

bill: and, again, some would say it's not a surprise. jennifer, thank you. we'll be back on that a bit later. jennifer griffin at the pentagon. martha: five days out, and the latest fox news poll shows there is one thing americans care most about when it comes to this election, and it might surprise you. far and away, the economy continues to be the number one issue despite everything that's going on with isis and ebola and all of that. 43% say when they walk into that voting booth, that is going to be the number one issue on their minds. it is way ahead of immigration, health care, foreign policy, as you can see. bret baier will be leading our election coverage, and we welcome him here this morning. good to see you. >> hey, martha. good morning. martha: is it surprising that the economy remains number one given that it hasn't really been in the headlines lately? >> no. but, you know, every election really comes down to how people feel about their personal situation, how people feel about the kitchen table about looking forward in their own future. and despite all the focus on ebola and foreign policy, you

can see foreign policy is three times less on the latest fox news poll of importance. i think it all comes back to, as bill clinton said, it's the economy, stupid. it really factors in in midterm elections. martha: interesting, because it seems to be an area that the president feels frustrateed about. he says, look, nobody's telling the story, but the economy's been doing so much better. he seems to feel that's the number one thing in his legacy, and yet the numbers we see shows only one in five out there give the economy good measure. >> yeah. the white house ticks off and the president has ticked off a number of stats and put in the right package can sound very impressive. but the bottom line is that people are not feeling it across the country. and there is a disconnect with those positive stats including the gdp number today, the fact that the federal reserve stopped its quantitative easing, that suggests there's confidence, a little bit, in the strength of

the u.s. economy going forward. still, it's about feeling it at home. and while the unemployment rate has dropped significantly, as you know, labor participation is down to its lowest level in 36 years. so that's significant. martha: yeah. i mean, it feels like a narrative that the president would very much like people to be embracing, and yet it seems that they are not, and i think it goes back to that central issue that you just touched on which is consumer confidence. and people's feeling. and feeling is very significant when it comes to the economy, because it dictates things such as whether you're going to buy a new house or car. and you've got only 25% believing in their heart of hearts that the economy is, indeed, improving. so as much as the president might want it to be a good story, that message has not gotten across. >> that's right. and he is not, as we've talked about campaigning in any of these really senate races, the competitive ones, the ones especially in red states, states that mitt romney won in 2012, he is doing some campaigning and especially some radio interviews

in african-american communities trying to stir up the african-american base. but if you look at the stats in african-american communities, it's pretty remarkable when you talk about the economy. while the unemployment rate has goes from 12.7 to 11%, the labor participation rate has dropped to 61% from 63. there are 1.5 million more people not in the labor force in the african-american community. you have a median household income roughly the same from when the president took office. the poverty rate has gone up three percentage points in the african-american community, and home ownership has dropped from 47% to 43%. this is just african-american community stats according to the bls and census. those are not good stats, and yet he is, obviously, well received in that community. but maybe not as forceful coming out to support the president even as he makes it personal. martha: you mentioned these

appearances on radio programs and steve harvey, and we've got to go, but i just want to leave hemowith this -- people with this thought. he made a very personal appeal, we're going to have one last push so the president and the first lady have the opportunity to really use these last two years on our behalf, speaking to a largely african-american audience on that radio show. a very softer, more personal appeal, hang in with me and michelle, very popular. it's an interesting turn in his narrative, bret. >> we'll see, because some of those races for democrats, it's important that community come c. could make the difference. martha: we'll see who turns out. bret, thank you very much. bill: in the meantime, iowa senate race down to a nile biter. republican joni ernst ahead by 2.1 percentage points. ernst telling me last hour that she is going to win come tuesday. >> it is going to be a tight

race, but we are on a 99-county tour, i'm sharing my message across all 9 t counties in iowa, and that is going to make a huge difference in this race. i think we are going to finish strong, and i believe i will be the next united states senator from iowa. bill: her prediction. chief political correspondent carl cameron live in iowa, he's been to all 99 counties. carl, good to you. >> reporter: i have. bill: we talked to joni ernst last hour, we had her on about a month ago, and she seems to have repine thed her message -- refined her message much more in the last four weeks, and is that what we are seeing in the polls there in iowa, or is it something else? >> reporter: no, you have all the candidates who have sort of a learning curve in this process. it really goes back to the primary. she had a competitive primary, she won it pretty strongly, and then she got into the general election and was facing not just bruce braley, but really the full force of the democratic party nationwide. in fact, hillary clinton was

here last night campaigning in iowa for braley, so ernst recognizes she's not running against one congressman, she's up against the whole country. and likewise, the republican party and the gop and conservative outside groups from iowa have been spending a fortune. $78 million is the total price here, and it's not even the most expensive. the kentucky race and north carolina are already over $100 million. but iowa's one of the most expensive. she's hit her stride. the polls show she's up about four points in the latest quinnipiac poll. internal polls say it's a little closer, and they believe their ground game is going to prevail here. but that talk is very standard, bill and, frankly, it's a question of whether ground game versus intensity is going to make the difference, and there is no doubt that on the right there is way more intensity, a lot more enthusiasm and a lot more indication they're going to be turning out. the early voting process is underway here in iowa, most of the indicators suggest ernst is

on a good path. bill: carl cameron, manly, iowa. appropriately named for carl. martha? martha: all right. a reminder to join all of us on election night. bret baier and megyn kelly will be hosting our coverage, bill will be working the board, i'm going to have a look at the exit polls, telling you what's on people's minds when they walk out of the polls on tuesday which is always very interesting. and that gets underway officially at six p.m., tuesday, november 4th, but we'll see people on sunday night as well. bill: told you, we're going to need a bigger bus to get all those folks up here to new york. another former administration official slamming his ex-boss. the former u.s. ambassador for iraq saying everybody warned the president about isis. we'll ask ambassador james jeffrey about those claims in a moment. martha: and russian military

planes making some brazen moves, forcing nato forces onto high alert. a tense situation as the world wonders what vladimir putin is up to. bill: also, here's a question: is mitt romney the darling of the midterms in 2014? >> it's like ronald reagan said, he said it's not that liberals rig significant, it's just -- ignorant, it's just that what they know is wrong. [laughter] and president obama's policies are wrong and have been wrong for the american people. óqoqúú

bill: we want to take you way up in the state of maine about a mile from the canadian border. the american nurse who was in west africa and has defied the state's forced quarantine order. she was out on a bike ride with her boyfriend a short time ago, and there's reporters surrounding her home, surrounding her as well when she came back to her home. her name is kaci hickox, speaking to reporters as they surrounded her at the end of that bike ride. roll this. >> you talk about taking this last night? >> no, i didn't. this morning we just said we wanted to go for a bike ride. >> something you guys do often? >> we do, yes. thank you, guys. i have to go speak with the health department now. bill: just yesterday she said she felt she was the one who was suffering during this, and then the health and human services secretary in the state of maine came out late yesterday and said we're going to go to court and

force her to stay home. as of now, that hasn't happened. they have not gotten a judge's order to do just that and, hence, the reason why she was out. and the nurse has said i'm going to fight it even if you come after me, so wow. martha: in that very controlledded area in maine swarmed by press who are hanging on her every word. i think she's enjoying this just a little bit. bill: slightly. martha: we're going to be talking about that coming up. stay with us. ♪ ♪ >> when the town of fallujah, which is an iconic town for the u.s. military because we lost so many people liberating it back in 2004, when that fell, it was very clear that isis was not just another islamic terrorist group, but was a threat to the very stability of the middle east. and for months we did almost nothing, until june. martha: president obama's former ambassador to iraq now saying that the white house was repeatedly warned as early as november and december of last year about the rise of isis, the threat that they posed, and for some reason did very little to

stop it. so what was that reason, becomes the question. ambassador james jeffrey joins me now. sir, welcome. good to have you here today. >> thank you. martha: can you explain to me, you know, what it was like during that period when you and leon panetta and hillary clinton were trying to convince the president that this was a real threat and that it would be better in the long term to address it now rather than later? what was that back and forth like? >> well, many of us or were doing this. i was doing this public, they were doing this because they were in the administration at the time behind closed doors. but the problem is, and i've worked in the white house, the middle east has been a mess for 40 years, and you're deluged in the white house with threats, with movements, with things that are coming up, and it sometimes is hard to react. but this movement looked different, it felt different, it was acting differently, and so it was in some respects a failure of imagination or a failure of concept that led to the inability to take the sort of strong action that we're now beginning to take back after

january. martha: why do you think the president resisted acting earlier on this whole thing? >> i don't think that's fully clear. i think that he has seep, as presidents before him, that the middle east, as i said, is a mess, that there is no way to seemingly from outside fix it for good as we've been successful, for example, in eastern europe or in participants of east -- parts of east asia. so, therefore, it's better to have a hands-off policy. that would work if the neighbors of the region were able to take care of their security, but they're not. and if their security's threatened, ours is because of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, our allies and the flow of oil. those are president obama's words, not mine, on why the middle east so important, and it's now being threatened. martha: do you believe he didn't want to be there anymore because he had run on pulling out of iraq and afghanistan which we've

now completed doing as well and that if there was something going wrong there, he didn't really want to know about it? what he's been accused of, being detached. >> i wouldn't put it quite that strongly, but i do think he felt there wasn't that much we could do in that if we led from behind, to quote him on libya, others would step up to the plate and take the lead. but that's not how that part of the world works. if we are not in the lead, if we're not showing leadership, if we're not putting skin in the game, so to speak, we will not get the arab countries, turkey, we will not get nato to stand behind us. we're doing that much better now, but it's very late. martha: are we going to look back at that moment as a pivotal moment when isis could have been contained, could have been stopped, you know, years from now and say that was a huge mistake? and what does the world look like, you know, down the road because of it, in your opinion? >> well, i do think that we are, first of all, we are containing isis. i think it's going to be very, very difficult to, at this

point, destroy isis which is our professed goal. but had we been able to act with a very difficult, to be honest, iraqi government after january, we might have stopped the seizure of fallujah, and isis would have been more contained in syria rather than sweeping into iraq as it has. but, you know, that's reinventing history to one degree. but right now looking to the future, we have to do a lot more to go after this organization. we cannot contain it, we have to destroy it. martha: a lot's going to be written looking back at that period and the warnings the white house had about the growth of isis. ambassador, thank you very much for being with us today. >> thank you. bill: very interesting. growing concerns about voter fraud. it's not just about stuff in the ballot box, some serious allegations raising new questions about election integrity in a moment. martha: think i'll go for a bike ride, she said, and out she went. flying the coop, riding her bike around maine this morning. is she doing the right thing? the nurse, kaci hickox to, back

from treating patients with ebola. >> the administration still does not have a coherent ebola policy. there's no travel ban from west africa and no mandatory quarantine. 33-year-old nurse kaci hickox is defying a state of maine quarantine because she can. when it comes to medicare, everyone talks about what happens when you turn sixty-five. but, really, it's what you do before that counts. see, medicare doesn't cover everything. only about eighty percent of part b medical costs. the rest is on you.

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bill: five days away, have you heard? early voting already underway in many states across the country raising serious questions about the extent of possible voter fraud. eric shawn's live on that story in hur newsroom -- here or in our newsroom here in new york. >> it seems some cases are already piling up this season. take tennessee, that's where joanne cronin has been indicted,

saying, quote: >> r eporter: meanwhile, in connecticut state representative christian that ayala has been indicted on 19 voter fraud charges, while in texas two pled guilty on buying votes with cash and cocaine while in rhode island police are investigating several voter fraud educations there. -- allegations there. it's not as widespread as many fear. >> i think that the threat of voter fred is often exaggerated -- fraud is ofoften exaggerated. where it happens, it's quite serious, and i certainly don't condone it where it happens, and it's important to be vigilant against it. >> reporter: well, a maryland voter watchdog group is suing that state accusing them of letting tens of thousands of noncitizens vote, bill.hey do tp voter fraud? >> reporter: there are a variety of actions they can take, and elections officials say they are ready. we talked to nevada secretary of

state ross miller who's a democrat. he prosecuted the activist group acorn for illegal voter registration and other cases. he started an election integrity task force that is a model, he says, for the nation. >> there's nothing more sacred than maintaining integrity in the electoral process, to make sure people have confidence in the democratic process. so you have to have a very diligent system set up to make sure you can detect fraud where it happens and go after those individuals that commit those crimes aggressively. >> reporter: recent cases in nevada involved illegal immigrant voting, double voting and candidates who were not even eligible to run. bill: eric shawn, stay on it. here in new york. martha? martha: so mitt romney is in high demand on the campaign trail these days as democrats distance themselves from the man who beat him in the last presidential election. what's behind mr. romney's growing popularity on the

campaign trail? bill: also here's an incredible find thousands of years in the making. a ship wreck so far below the ocean's as far as that only a specialized team of divers could uncover it, and they did. we'll talk to them live. ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ martha: we are back, and nato is scrambling to reposition military jets at this hour in response to increased air activity that's coming from russia. strategic bombers and fighter jets have been spotted over the atlantic ocean, the black sea and the battics which -- baltics which adds to tension already strained, obviously, between the east and the west. amy kellogg is live in london on this, how serious do they think this is? >> reporter: martha, i tried to draw a nato spokesman on what this all really means, and he

stopped short of calling it a provocation. but interestingly, martha, i spoke to a russian military analyst who was unequivocal, saying that this is cold war era nuclear brinksmanship on the part of moscow. now, it's important to point out that russia's military aircraft didn't violate european air space, and they do fly close to europe quite regularly. however, this was different in terms of the numbers of planes involved and the routes they took and also the planes themselves. there were four separate formations of russian military aircraft in, essentially, a 24-hour period. one formation started in russia, went over the north sea at which point norwegian jets intercepted four bears, bombers which are equipped to carry nuclear weapons, and four tanker planes, some headed back to russia, but others continued towards britain and down to portugal. again, martha, these planes never violated european air space, they were in international air space, but strategic bombers going along

the coast of portugal? it makes nato take nose. martha: -- take notice. martha: official response from russia on this? >> reporter: no. and this military analyst who wasn't as independent on the phone as i remembered him being when we last met, he said, basically, we want concessions on russia -- on ukraine, in other words. we did see president putin recently at a big military parade in his honor in serbia, and he has recently been lashing out more strongly than ever, blaming the united states for the escalation of conflicts around the globe. ukraine, obviously, the heart of the troubles between the u.s. and russia now and that russian military analyst i spoke to just to wrap up, martha, said that actually that first formation reached the point -- and this is symbolic -- where russian long-range, where a long-range cruise missile would be fired if one were to be fired at the united states. again, all symbolism, but very interesting.

martha: very interesting. fascinating. amy, thank you very much. ♪ ♪ >> policies that president obama has put in place are not policies that have worked for america. he hasn't had a clue when it comes to dealing with the challenges america faces. bill: well, that was the former massachusetts governor, mitt romney, stumping in north carolina for thom tillis, one of the tightest senate races out there. governor romney getting a much warmer welcome from senate candidates than president obama these days. romney's been all over the map. john sununu, former governor of new hampshire, worked for mitt romney a couple years back. how you doing, by the way? nice to see you. >> i'm well. how are you, bill? bill: i'm doing very well. thank you for coming back. is this a romney revival that we're seeing? >> well, i think mitt romney's doing what all republicans should be doing, and that's making sure that we get a vote out on tuesday. mitt has worked tirelessly, he is one of the leading if not the leading voice for the republican

party in this campaign. but he's helping republican senate candidates in a way that obama can't help the democratic candidates. and getting out the vote in the last week is the message that's important to everybody. bill: yeah. a lot of people ask this question, and i don't think anybody knows the answer: would you expect him to run again in 2016? >> look, i don't think so. i think mitt is very happy in the context of what he's doing now. he's happy to help the party. but i've talked to mitt, and i think he understands there's a lot of good republican candidates that are going to be running in '16. i think he agrees with me that it probably should be a governor or a former governor, because this country needs somebody that doesn't go into the executive office without any experience. we've seen the disaster of what happens when you let somebody who can't run a lemonade stand go into the white house. but mitt is out there giving

encouragement to republicans, and i don't think he's going to run -- bill: interesting. i'll take it as a no. you're up there in new hampshire now. who wins between scott brown and jeanne shaheen? the average is about two points, but brown has pulled ahead in a poll or two just in the past five days. who wins? >> yeah. you're going to see all kinds of crazy polls in the last five days as the democrats try and find some polling for their cause. but the fact is brown has the momentum. if the republicans get out and vote on tuesday -- and i am confident they will -- scott brown's going to win. bill: wow. nationally, what happens then? senate wise? >> 52, 53 republican senate seats. bill: if that is true then, how do you think president obama will govern if republicans control -- >> as badly as he has in the past. bill: what would you expect? >> look, this is a president

that really has no intention to govern. he avoids decisions, he creates by indecision crises. we have the crisis of isis, we have the problems in syria, we have mismanagement of ebola, we have the disaster at the border, the immigration issue is falling apart. he's going to try perhaps to, by executive order, do do some thi, but this is a president who really does not like to make decisions, and we're going to go through another two years of indecision. the senate, however, is going to support the republican house and send them some legislation that he's going to have to decide whether to let go or send back to congress. and i know we'll see a lot of -- bill: i apologize for stepping over your answer -- >> i'm sorry, i couldn't hear you, so it's okay. bill: okay. do you think that he will cut deals, or will he veto? >> i think he's going to start

trying to veto because that's his nature. he never worked as a governor, for example, dealing with a legislature even when he was in the senate, he didn't work with his colleagues. he really has no sense of how to go down and negotiate a compromise. lots of presidents have had a congress that wasn't fully in concert with them, and they've come through with good legislation. clinton worked with gingrich, the president i worked for worked with a house that only had 175 republicans, 260 democrats and a lopsided senate against us, but he got a ton of good legislation. but this president doesn't understand there's give and take in the process. bill: we'll talk to you after the election, okay? it's good to have you back. john sununu out of new hampshire -- >> yeah. just get the republicans out to vote for me, bill. bill: okay. thank you for your time, really appreciate it. your prediction was 52 or 53, right? this is where we are now, at 55

democrats with two incompetents vote -- independents voting with democrats. how would you then get to that prediction that john sununu just made of 52 or 53? west virginia looked comfortable, so, too, south dakota and montana. so now you're at 48. a poll out of arkansas that shows tom cotton with a nice lead there, 49. colorado, you would have to pick up, that would put you at 50. so you still need two or three more states, and we talked to joni ernst last hour. she made a prediction that she's going to win on tuesday. if she right? if she is, she turns iowa from blue to red, and john sununu said new hampshire's going to go for scott brown. if that happens early in the night, that would be a predicter of a republican wave across the country. if that, indeed, happens. meanwhile, here in north carolina similar closing times early in the night, if kay hagan, the democrat, can hold on and beat thom tillis, that would

indicate to democrats that they might be able to hang on, might be able to hang on in the u.s. senate. there's concern in georgia for republicans, there's concern in kansas, and what's going to happen out here in alaska? dan sullivan going up against mark begich. we'll see right now. you can flip this thing around and toss it on its head and look at it 40 different ways. martha: yes, you can. i feel like we have. [laughter] bill: time for that too. martha: it's fascinating, and every one of those races, they are so tight. and given some of the polls we've seen about what people care about, and we're going to look at the exit polls that night, it's surprising how tight it is, but there's been a lot of early voting, so it's going to be fascinating. bill: i thought what carl cameron was reporting on in iowa about the ground game -- martha: can you actually get those people to come out and vote, are they motivated to vote, are they happy with what they've seen, disgusted with the whole process?

that's going to be the questions on their minds. okay. so how about this question, could the amelia earhart mystery finally be solved? the discovery that might reveal what happened to the legendary aviator when she vanished from the sky 70 years plus ago. bill: also, is she selfish or just practical? a defiant nurse sparking debate on an ebola quarantine, says authorities should back off because she's just fine. critics say everyone's fine until they are not. our panel debates that next, and this: >> ms. hickox should be taken into custody, but she will not be because the feds have no ebola policy at all.

big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern.

bill: will a new clue britain scientists closer to -- bring scientists closer to finding out what happened to amelia earhart? a metal fragment matches a patch

that replaced one of the windows. earhart vanished july 2, 1937. she was trying at the time to fly around the world. ♪ ♪ martha: back to the story now, the nurse being monitored for ebola symptoms defied her quarantine, she went out for a bike ride this morning with her boyfriend because that's what she likes to do. she had been threatening to leave her house, she's got a swarm of press all over the place up there in maine. you can see them chasing after her on her bicycle this morning. i am joined by lars larson, radio talk show host and richard fowler, host of the richard fowler show and, boy, what a show this has become, gentlemen. you know, she seems to be enjoying the attention that she's getting. i'm not sure why someone who's such a humanitarian in west africa becomes sort of not a humanitarian when they come back home. lars, what do you think? >> well, she's being a bit narcissistic. she also may think she's earned

so many good credits for the work she did in west africa, which was good work, that she deserves to be at the center of attention now. you know, when i was 9 years old my mom told me she had to stick me in the arm with a needle to protect me against measles, but also everybody around me who might give measles to me or get it from me. kaci hickox is not behaving like a professional, and it's sad to see this kind of situation, especially when the president comes out and announcing that we are not to criticize the likes of kaci hickox or dr. can spencer. but -- dr. spencer. but he plans to quarantine all of our troops for 31 days. -- 21 days. martha: let's play the president now, and then we'll get to richard. >> i'm a firm believer in american exceptionalism. you know why i am? it's because of folks like this. it's because we don't run and hide when there's a problem.

it's because we don't react to our fears, but instead we respond with common sense and skill and courage. martha: the president clearly seems to be scolding people who don't think those surrounding him are heroes, richard. and i think everybody understands. i almost feel like it's an overly simplistic argument. everyone understands these doctors who have been doing god's work in west africa are heroes. no one doesn't get that. the question is, when they come back here, is it incumbent upon them to use that common sense to make sure they keep the people they love safe for 21 days? it shouldn't be a big deal, should it? >> listen, here's the thing, martha, and my mom is a registered nurse -- martha: that's why we booked both of you, because we knew both of your moms were nurses. it's the sons of nurses panel. go ahead, richard. >> my mom would say the same thing, and i don't think kaci is being a narcissist here.

the camera showed up on her door. she's doing the right things. the facts about this case and lars and i and martha, we all know the facts are simple. you do not spread e well bowl la -- ebola until your symptomatic. she doesn't have ebola yet. martha: i get it. the doctor wasn't symptomatic either when he went to the -- >> and he didn't have ebola then. martha: what i don't like is people who are arguing in favor of a voluntary quarantine, a 21-day period where you don't expose yourself to other people are being looked upon as stupid. they don't understand the science. no, that's not it. the question is, is it the humanitarian thing to do to say out of an abundance of caution, i'm just going to make absolutely sure i don't have any symptoms for 21 days? >> no, i hear -- martha: lars? >> i think richard's wrong, and here's why: oftentimes all of us will say i'm not going to go out to dinner with my friends tonight because i have the flu,

and i don't want them to get it. and the flu for most of us is an inconvenience. ebola is deadly. >> but she doesn't have ebola, lars. >> well, hold on, we don't know that. >> neither did the doctor until he becomes -- >> well, listen -- >> he knew the facts. >> richard, he knew -- >> are i wish you would operate under the -- >> richard, let me finish. martha: all right, hold on. quickly, and then i do want to get back to richard. >> do you think anybody went bowling with the doctor the night isn't marking off the 21 days on their calendar right now, hoping to god that they don't have ebola? martha: of course they are. richard, that's the point. the doctor didn't know he was symptomatic, and kaci is in the same situation at the moment. >> right. and the keyword here is voluntary. you can choose not to do it, but at the end of the day her family and her friends, those who are close to her, they're okay with hanging around kaci and hugging her because they know she will

not spread ebola until she presents with the symptoms. we need to focus our ebola -- martha: one last question, and then i've got to go. why are we quarantining our military and not the medical professionals? >> exactly. martha: why is that? >> listen, that's a question for the pentagon that i can't necessarily answer. >> no, it's not. martha: well, they said they're doing it out on an abundance of caution, they understand the science, but they feel that it's wise -- >> martha? >> and they can choose to do that. at the end of the day, we cannot go against our health care workers because they don't have ebola, and they want to go out for a bike ride with their husbands. martha: thank you to our sons of nurses panel. thanks to your moms. bye, guys. bill: sometimes they're like sons of anarchy. jon scott's coming up next, "happening now" rolls your way. what you cooking up? jon: yeah, ebola just one of the issues voters are going to be thinking about as the clock ticks down to the midterms. tight races in key states. a lot of guessing going on, but

we will talk to some of the best experts on the polling numbers. larry sabato joins us with his crystal ball, and we'll talk last minute strategy with steve israel, also with karl rove. plus five bodies found in a home in utah, now police say the family was probably poisoned, but who did it? and we're learning a top isis target has been in america's sights for more than a year. so why did the obama administration wait until last month to call him a terrorist? it's all "happening now." bill: good deal. okay, jon, we'll see you then. jon: see you in ten minutes. bill: top of the hour. a 2,000-year-old fine, a shipwreck like nothing you have seen before. we're going to talk to one of the divers who has been down braving the abyss. ♪ ♪

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♪ ♪ bill: so an ancient ship webbing has been discovered -- shipwreck has been discovered in the med town ran, said to have scheduled 2,000 years ago. my next guest has been there, he's back in florida, with global underwater explorers fresh in from overseas. how are you, jared? good morning to you. >> i'm great, bill. it's great to be here. bill: you do work all over the world for a nonprofit, but what did you find off the coast of italy? >> this is an extension of a project baseline activity we have going on, and off the coast of italy we were exploring a number of areas that the siciliano government had identified as potential targets, a group called aurora trust had done some drops, and we were going down to try to identify in more detail one of these

shipwrecks. bill: what did it teach you? >> it really told us a lot about what was going on during this time. it's really fascinating to think about 300 b.c., about 2200 years ago. i think we can learn a lot about ancient trade during that time period, the historical significance of this period of time as well. bill: this is 200 years before christ. >> yeah, it's amazing. bill: how do i know i can believe you? >> i've asked that question myself on a number of different projects, but the researchers are really quite good at defining a very specific date relative to the containers that would transport food and wine around the world, and they're really quite precise at identifying the region and the date of these things. and then, of course, we also have more rigorous scientific analysis that can locate the location and time period that the clay that was used for these terra cotta style, where they came from. bill: wow. but specifically, how did you know that a certain boat had passed through that period of

the ocean? >> well, there have been a number of scans by some work that had been done by aurora trust in the area with the siciliano government, and they had identified this as an ancient shipwreck region and had identified through rov and camera drops that this was a very specific and interesting site. bill: aha. >> there hadn't been very much documentation, and no one had discovered this fascinating altar we located as well. bill: jared, thanks for sharing your story, okay? >> thank you, bill. bill: amazing history from the deep. thank you, in gainesville. martha: love that. well, there are some key races that are going to go down to the wire in just a few days where the outcome could change the balance of power on thehe scaffold-covered capitol hill. larry sabato looks into his crystal ball, coming up.

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>> madison bum garner. bill: madison bumgarner. martha: we salute you, winning

game 7 for the giants. third time in five years. extraordinary. bill: i don't know how you do. that have a great day. martha: bye-bye jon: for royals fans there is always next year, right? down to the final days before the midterm elections, one top political analyst is making a big bet on which party will prevail. welcome to "happening now." i'm jon scott. shannon: i'm shannon bream in for jenna lee. this election cycle was marked by millions spent on ads and ferocious campaigning. as the question remains, who will take the gavel come january? we have tight races in key battleground states around the country and looks like anyone's game. we may get new clues where the races are headed. jon: let's bring in larry sabato. director of university of virginia center for politics. spends a lot of time