fighting the greatest threat to humanity, the cool. the spin stops here because we're looking out for you, and you, and you, but not you. good evening everyone and welcome to a "the kelly file" midterm special, the democrats last defense. i'm megyn kelly. to understand what happened last tuesday we need to understand withast spring. the obama controversy faded from the headlines. president's approval rating climbed back to the 40s and democrats had a plan to make social issues the cornerstone of the 2013 midterms. but things soon started to unravel. vladimir putin and ukrainian rebels threatened a cold war style showdown. the conflict went on for months. but by june a new story pushed mr. putin from the headlines here. thousands of unaccompanied children started showing up at our southern border overwhelming

the border patrol. they wound up warehoused in detention centers and elsewhere. it got ugly fast to the point where one california town turned away buses full of these immigrants. while the border issue played out, an even bigger crisis was taking shape in the middle east. on june 10th an army of terrorists calling themselves the islamic state captured the iraqi city of mosul. the next day they would take tikrit. with president obama dismissing them then as "jay vee." now they control an area the size of the united kingdom, declaring the creation of a caliphate. president obama denounced the group but seemed unwilling to engage until the horror of mt. sinjar. in the beginning of august american tv screens were filled with pictures like these, of

christians and yazidi innocents running for their lives. trapped on mt. sinjar with no food, water or shelter, the u.s. intervened and helped thousands escape. officials say at least 300 died on that mountain. and then a new horror. here is "the kelly file" on august 19th. first, a horrifying message for america from the terrorists in iraq. islamic extremists releasing a new video claiming to show the beheading of an american journalist. and now threatening to kill another american in their custody. for nearly 24 hours the white house waited to react. under pressure to say something the president came to the microphones while on vacation in martha's vineyard and said this. >> jim was taken from us in an act of violence that shocks the conscience of the entire world. jim foley's life stands in stark contrast to his killers.

let's be clear about isil. they have rampaged across cities and villages killing innocent unarmed civilians. there has to be a common effort to extract this cancer so that . >> less than 15 minutes later the commander in chief was playing golf in a move he later admitted was a mistake. since that time the president has launched a series of air strikes, committed more troops and pledged to degrade and destroy this terror army. and still his foreign policy numbers have sunk to new lows. his generals are unhappy. and the public is unconvinced. former defense secretary leon panetta did not help with a recent book that reminded voters of missed opportunities in iraq and syria, and suggested there is no leadership in this white house. now, just before the midterms the white house is on defense as ebola finds its way to america despite assurances we would stop it overseas. we were screening here at home and our hospitals knew what to

do. none of which held up. so what does this mean for tuesday's elections? the social issues once key to the democrats strategy have gotten far less play while leadership, the president and his policies have become the factor in almost all of the key races. joining me now, joe trippi, a former presidential campaign manager for howard dean, and karl rove who's former deputy chief of staff and senior advisor to president george w. bush. both fox news contributors. both of you welcome. karl, of those items i ticked off, which do you think will have the most impact on what we're going to see tuesday night? >> well, it's hard to pick them apart because they've been conflated by the voters all under one thing, which is about concerns and safety of the united states of america. and secondly, about the competence in the ability and leadership of the president of the united states. these two things have been inexrabble. you've actually left however one

of the most important issues that has in this election off the list and that is the poor performance of the economy. look, we're creating jobs and growing, but the job growth is relatively anemic. the unemployment rate -- >> but that was the case even in the spring when his poll numbers were rebounding. we've been trying to examine how he went from holding steady to in what may be a political free fall. >> well, you're right. but as these questions about the competence arose, the president's job approval numbers on handling the economy have similarly dropped. and they are in in some polls into the 30s and in most polls into the low 40s. so this whole thing has had a corrosive effect on the president's standing. it's caused people to go back and re-examine, is this president up to the job and do they need to send him a message about the final two years he has in office. so you're right, the issue of security in mid-august it was not even on the list of the top

concerns in the cbs poll. six weeks later it was number two after the economy. but the economy has continued to be weak and underperforming. people's concerns about their jobs and paychecks have now become part and parcel to this question of is the president up to the job. >> joe, is he a victim of circumstance? he and democrats with him victim of circumstance or victim of his and their own policies? >> well, both. both of those things are true. the remarkable thing, megyn, when you go through that hole in the beginning of this discussion and you go through that and you look at the fact that in all these races with all that being on voters minds, every single one of them it's a dead heat. sure some democrats are behind a bit, but they're all in it. the number of races that are this tight given the president's low ratings. by the way, that's the single most biggest indicator in a

midterm election is where is the president's approval. and when they're this low to have this many competitive races where the democrats are still in it does reflect something else on the other side. that there's disenchantment with the republican party and with congress as a whole. both sides, democrats and republicans in congress, so everybody. i actually think this could be a really punishing november which incumbents could wind up losing. >> we could wind up with a republican-controlled senate and mitch mcconnell is not the majority leader. there is an anti-incumbent mood, is there not? >> well, there is. but let's be careful about saying that what's surprising is how many races are still in play. nobody talks about montana, south dakota and west virginia anymore. and those the democrats made an effort to recruit high-quality candidates and thought they'd succeeded in doing so. and the republicans lead in those races by double digits.

they recruited a tough candidate in kentucky and backed her with a lot of money. but i think most pundits would believe and looking at the polls now this race has floated out of con tinment for the democrats and mitch mcconnell will return accordingly. the president is going to get a whoopin. the question is how big. and his party is going to suffer in the senate. the question is are they going to wake up after the election with 48, 49, 47, 50 or 51. i think most people all the election, all of the major news organization models from "the huffington post" to "new york times" to 538.com all predict a republican takeover in the senate starting with the lowest number 63% all the way up into the 90s. so there are a large number of races out there that are to be settled. there are two races where republicans lead, but inside the margin of error and two races where democrats lead albeit inside the margin of error. i think you'd have to say republicans have a very strong hand to play on tuesday night.

>> joe, do you feel that there is one or two races that could be sort of the bellwether for how the night will go? i mean, these things tend to trend one way or the other if you look back at the midterms over the past ten, 15, 20 years. it tends to be a wave election one way or the other. what are the couple of bellwetters? >> well, i would look at kentucky. it's going to be one of the first states whose polls close. if that is a tight race, if mcconnell is in trouble there, you know, then i would say, look, it could be -- what i'm saying -- this is a fox news alert. a mexican judge ordering the immediate release of u.s. marine andrew tahmooressi. he maintained he got lost on a ramp that sent him across with no way of turning back.

his long call for prompting for freedom. his family issuing the following statement. it is with overwhelming and humbling relief we can say andrew was released today after spending 214 days in mexico. the country has been tightening up its border checks to stop the flow of u.s. weapons that have been used by drug cartels. i'm lea gabrielle. "the kelly file" special returns after this break. you know your dentures can move. unlike natural teeth. try new fixodent plus truefeel. this smooth formula helps keep dentures in place. it's free of flavors and colorants for a closer feeling to natural teeth. fixodent. and forget it.

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senator shaheen, imagine you are at home wearing your new hampshire citizen hat and you get a call from a pollster asking the following question, do you approve of the job president obama is doing? now, they'll be a chance to follow-up, but this is a yes or no answer. do you approve, yes or no? >> in some ways i approve, and some things i don't approve. so -- >> oh, boy. that was new hampshire senator jean shaheen. while the crowd thought it was a funny moment, hard to imagine there's much laughter at shaheen headquarters after this race tightened up. scott brown was not supposed to even be a contender. maintained a ten-point polling lead in the last six months only to see it disappear in the last few weeks. chief political correspondent

carl cameron now with a look at how that happened. >> thanks, megyn. the u.s. senate race in new hampshire really may test how potent the anti-obama and democratic agenda strategy by republicans can be. in this race is a virtual dead heat. jean shaheen going after republican challenger scott brown. he is a republican last u.s. senator from massachusetts. and because he's not from new hampshire the charges of carpet bagger have been put on quite a bit. at a chili cookoff she joked about it using immigration reform to talk about keeping scott brown out of new hampshire and denying him entry. watch. >> we sort of let this guy sneak over the border. you probably notice we've been debating border security a little bit. clearly we didn't do enough to secure the southern border. >> she's voted not to secure the border, not to send troops to the border. i have. i'm going to continue to bring that message to the people and

listen to their rational fears about this real issue. >> brown's drawing big enthusiastic crowds. he's basically making the argument that jean shaheen has been a loyal democratic voter for the obama agenda and for that needs to be fired. counting on the national and sentiment here in new hampshire. virtually every issue has been debated between these two. it's been really close. they both just released their final arguments for the closing ads of this campaign. in the case of shaheen she makes the point she's lived and worked here in new hampshire, didn't just move here. a reference to brown. and brown made the point that as long as she's voting 99% obama, new hampshire and the country won't get any better. megyn. >> carl, thank you. joining me kries stirewalt who will be part of our decision desk on election night because he knows everything there is to know about politics. chris, she was running a relatively mistake-free campaign

and had a double-digit lead over him. and then that debate and that answer, which is so patently, you know, a dodge, how badly did she hurt herself there? >> well, she was running basically no campaign. she was spending some money, but brown was so far back she obviously didn't take it seriously. she didn't do town halls. she wasn't going to do very many debates. what changed this race, unquestionably, was the shift in the issue set which by the way in new hampshire which is a state that does tend to be socially liberal on national security issues is rock red and very conservative. scott brown was the right guy for the moment. and she really staggered and stumbled when it came to being a strong supporter of the president who couldn't say so. >> he's been very disciplined. he hasn't made a lot of mistakes in his campaign. if he does wind up winning this race, is it because of this national sway on the issues? can you attribute it to anything other than that?

>> you're right. he definitely hustled himself all over that state. but, yes, it's the issue set that changed. shaheen's poor campaign, but it's the way the president handled national security, foreign policy issues really cook this race up as a possible for the republicans. >> much more with chris standing by because we want to go to north carolina where kay hagan has become the costliest race of the midterms. spending in this fight has topped $100 million. do you believe that? with an estimated 70% coming from outside groups. a fact that hasn't gone unnoticed. >> north carolina is this purple state. but i feel very good about where we are. i do think this out of state money is something i'm very disappointed in, but it's because of the supreme court decision. >> but you've benefitted from it as well. >> i think no matter who gives money it should be disclosed.

and i think it should be transparent. >> as long as the money is coming from people who support you, it's okay? >> i certainly wish that we could have disclosed where no matter who gives money that the public knows and follows that. >> good for gwen, good interview. john roberts is following the race and filed this report. >> megyn, north carolina is one of several highly competitive seats the republicans hope will lead them to control of the senate next year. the republican candidate now running neck-in-neck with the incumbent senator kay hagan. she's been hammering tillis for being too conservative for a purple state like north carolina. and he fired back her career less than distinguished. what do you think her biggest liability is? >> the fact she hasn't gotten anything done. and the promises she made have been broken. broke her promise on obamacare, fixing the v.a. >> reporter: even supporters

share that view. the charlotte newspaper when endorsing her saying "she has been a disappointment" and "has done about the minimum you would expect as a u.s. senator." while hagan has been hurt by her association with president barack obama, she's managed to keep her head above water by tying tillis to a very unpopular legislature. >> it is very much tom tillis as the candidate of the north carolina general assembly. kay hagan has been able to shift the dynamics to make it a race about him and the general assembly that is very unpopular in this state among democrats and particularly unaffiliated voters. >> this is likely to go down as the most expensive senate race in history, $100 million spent with nearly 100,000 ads aired all across the state over months. after all of that this is anyone's race. megyn. >> john roberts, thank you. back now to chris stirewalt. all right, chris. they say this race is not necessarily like the others in that it's not a straight

referendum on president obama and the democrats policies. do you agree? >> i disagree because what this is is this whole election on steroids. seriously. they have squeezed every possible partisan into their respective camps instead of the other states where you see undecideds bouncing along. in north carolina aggressive relentless campaigning has turned everyone to their camps and then a question of turnout. no question hagan has done a good job of appealing to base voters and putting out the warning about especially for black voters what a republican senate would mean in north carolina. she's doing her best to get them going. >> and then we saw this ad by a black state senator from louisiana released in north carolina for the other side saying that the democrats policies have hurt the african-american community. how much of a factor is that turnout machine that the democrats built over the past two or three election cycles

going to be here? >> huge in north carolina. and remember this is a absolute must-win state for them. there's no way for them to hold the senate based on what else is going on if they can't keep her in her office in north carolina and republicans know it. >> chris stirewalt. we'll be right back to you in a minute. colorado politics turning increasingly blue. so why is the liberal denver post newspaper endorsing the republican senate candidate? the answer's next. most powerful political ads of the midterms. fox news media critic how wi kurts is here. >> i grew up castrating hogs on an iowa farm. so when i get to washington, i'll know how to cut pork. big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much.

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that was one of the first ads this campaign season from democratic incumbent mark udall and the message has not changed much since then. while udall is polling well with women, the paper slammed an obnoxious race by udall and endorsed republican challenger cory gardner in a surprise move. how udall's strategy is playing in the final week of the campaign. trace. >> senator udall's strategy seems to have backfired since most polls have him falling behind though within the margin of error. his releaptless focus on reproductive rights allowed him to be painted as a single issue candidate. udall in turn has tried to cast gardner as an extreme conservative who is anti-women pointing out he's twice voted for an amendment that would redefine a person's rights as

beginning at conception. political experts say gardner successfully countered the extreme conservative label by coming out in favor of the over the counter contraceptives. women likely won't be the deciding factor. experts say latinos will make the difference. two years ago latinos represented 14% of colorado voters giving the state to president obama. but now pollsters say there's clearly disappointment with obama and democrats for failing to deliver on a promise of immigration reform. and now cory gardner is campaigning for the latino vote enlisting the help of potential presidential candidate 2016 jeb bush. translation, vote for cory gardner. but experts say democrats are concerned latino voters will flee to the gop. they're concerned latino voters will stay home. and if they do, that could cost

udall the race and possibly cost democrats the senate. megyn. >> trace, thank you. now back to chris stirewalt. so what's it going to come down to? latino vote in colorado? >> well, remember, they have this hankie new law in colorado with male-in voting, same-day registration. it's a doozy. >> it's very blue. meant to help democrats. >> right. they like it a bunch. the question is, can you poll the state correctly? democrats say you can't because there will be magical em nations coming from different precincts. but the polling has been heinous for mark udall. it has been bad. and if the polls are accurate, he will lose. >> how did that happen? >> because he ran a terrible campaign. when they laugh at you at a debate, when one of the interlock wetters at a debate jokes and says you're in the

nickname mark uterus, that's not a strong sign for your candidacy. >> if this race were to take place in a movie, it would be in a gyn's office. >> he set an ad in an obstetrician gynecological office. >> instead of please vote it was please fly down. my fellow women understand that. never mind. going to leave that alone. good to see you. standby. more with you in a second. in iowa republicans decided they would try to meet democrats head-on when it came to connecting with women and young people. and they did it with a candidate by the name of jodi ernst. ernst has become a rising republican political star. she's a mother, soldier, farmer and blue collar worker and enough of a threat to democrat bruce braley that democrats this week sent in one of the big guns. >> it's not enough to be a

woman, you have to committed to expand rights and opportunities for women. >> campaign carl cameron outlines the fight in iowa. >> thanks, megyn. now we're heading into the final weekend iowans can start making up their minds. this state has a long history of being fairly fickle. the polls suggest joni ernst as having the lead. it's been a long and bruising campaign, almost $80 million spent so far and four more days of attack ads filling the waves here in the hawkeye state. joni's campaign began with the ad, ad with the castration of hogs. that's how it's been dubbed. >> i grew up castrating hogs on an iowa farm, so when i get to washington, i'll know how to cut pork. >> her opponent is democratic congressman bruce braley. he got off to a rather rocky start when he was going to a fundraiser in texas and started

talking about his history as a lawyer suggesting that it was really important that democrats win the majority and keep it otherwise chuck grassley, the republican senator from iowa would end up being the chairman of the judiciary committee. and braley made a bit of a slur. this is a fox news alert. a mexican judge ordering the immediate release of jailed u.s. marine andrew tahmooressi. it's been more than six months. he maintained he got lost on a california freeway ramp that sent him across with no way of turning back. his long detention prompting calls for his freedom from many u.s. politicians. tahmooressi's family issuing a statement. "it is with overwhelming humbling feeling and relief that we confirm andrew was released today after spending 214 days in jail in mexico.

the country has been tightening border checks to stop the flow of u.s. weapons that have been used by drug cartels. now back to "the kelly file" already in progress with a special report. for all of your headlines, log onto foxnews.com. is it the ad? the ad certainly catapulted her to national prominence where she hadn't been before. >> great ad got her the nomination no question. what got her in contention is she is the new-look gop, marco rubio in 2010. she is the new look which as you say, blue collar, hard working, soldier, mom, all of that stuff. but also don't discount that bruce braley has been a terrible candidate. he was the prohibited front-runner expected to walk away with this. he didn't get there, he ran poorly, she took advantage of it. >> chris, thank you. democrats have long counted on women voters to safe the day. kirsten powers here on why that

may not work this time. and howie kurts with the ads making news. >> in 2008, 90% of black folk in north carolina have voted for kay hagan. who among us have they saved? how much money do you have in your pocket right now? i have $40, $21. could something that small make an impact on something as big as your retirement? i don't think so. well if you start putting that towards your retirement every week and let it grow over time, for twenty to thirty years, that retirement challenge might not seem so big after all. ♪

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don't start humira if you have an infection. set a new goal today. ask your dermatologist about humira. because with humira clearer skin is possible. this is a fox news alert. jailed u.s. marine veteran andrew tahmooressi on his way to being a free man again. immediate release of the war veteran who suffers from ptsd. it's been 26 months since the veteran was arrested by mexican authorities for crossing the border with loaded guns. he maintains he got lost on a california ramp that sent him across with no way of coming back. he carried guns, because his weapons purchased legally in the u.s. make him feel safer. in mexico possession for weapons

use -- a crime. family saying "it is with overwhelming humbling feeling of relief that we confirm andrew was released today after spending 214 days in mexican jail" now back to "the kelly file" special already in progress. welcome back to a "the kelly file" midterm special, the democrats last defense. the political ads flood the air waves and in recent days the air waves have gotten special fierce with ads in the state of north carolina. first, democrats tried to tie the republican senate candidate there to the shooting death of trayvon martin. then came this from the other side. >> black people are just being used by limousine liberals who have become our new overseers. we've only traded one plantation for another. >> host of media buzz on the fox

news channel which airs on sunday mornings, good to see you. so in north carolina and several other states we have seen it boil down to these ads. are they having a real impact? or is it more gas and other things the campaigns do on the road? >> well, that particular ad for tom tillis republican challenging kay hagan i think using an african-american state senator makes sense. but when he uses language for trading one plantation for another or food stamps is going to be a wash. folks even not in missouri this is really about both sides trying to gin up the base and get them excited on emotional hot button issues. >> they will go to the lowest place in terms of race baiting. in particular in north carolina we have seen in the last couple of weeks. >> absolutely. >> all right. let's talk about iowa and the joni ernst ad we've played and the pig. it's worked for her. >> this castration ad absolutely put joni ernst on the national

map. it's funny, it makes you squeal and who's going to be offended except for some pig lovers? >> well, showed a pig after talking about castrating them. >> we're still talking about it. the ad came out in the primary. that's an effective piece. >> that's the point. get you talking about it. what about in colorado mark udall been called senator uterus out there. but he keeps hitting the womens issues including in this ad we're showing here. >> well, i think that it's been effective for udall for this reason, going after his republican opponent cory gardner he says that he had championed a crusade to outlaw birth control. gardner comes back with an ad saying i'm for over the counter birth control. by the way, i've listened to the voters and changed my mind about this personhood amendment which some people think could have restrictions on birth control. so he moved the ball on this. but udall seems to be pounding

this above all else because democrats going after that female vote. >> all right. in new hampshire jean shaheen is in a battle with scott brown. and he wasn't expected to do much in this race but now he's closed a ten-point gap. here's an ad she's run attacking him on womens issues. watch. >> in massachusetts scott brown pushed for a law to force women considering abortion, force them, to look at color photographs of developing fetuses. >> now, he came out and called that despicable. "the washington post" gave it one pinocchio meaning mostly correct but not fully correct, the forced they took issue with. did it work? that what is jean shaheen trying to do? she's trying to get female voters to feel scott brown is not on their side. what does scott brown do? he says i'm pro-choice, which is true despite his part of that legislation. and hearing this from jean shaheen who has voted six years with barack obama.

this is the gop playbook. what is the charges? my opponent doesn't like children. come back and say, yeah, she was seen in a room with president obama. so republicans very much trying to use the president's unpopularity against democrats in every instance they can. >> how much do you think tv presence affects these races? does it matter if you're good on tv? if you're good obviously in a debate it will help. how important has tv become in penetrating the electorate? >> i think increasingly tv is most of the ball game. candidates don't do quite as much in terms of town halls and pressing the flesh. they spend millions on these attack ads. even if they're not very good, you do enough retakes you can get a reasonable commercial out of it. what happens is there are so many negative ads people get sick of them and they wonder which side should i believe? >> they wind up feeling disgusted at the end of the process and then stay home. which is not what they're supposed to do. good to see you. >> same here, megyn. up next, kirsten power on

mary landrieu's southern voters race and gender. >> not always been the friendliest place for african-americans. it's been a difficult time for the president to present himself in a very positive light as a leader. it's not always been a good place for women to be able to present ourselves. it's more of a conservative place. i told my dentist about my sensitive teeth,

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now to a new controversy on the campaign trail where nbc's chuck todd asked senator mary landrieu about her reelection, the president and his policies and her answer. >> i'll be honest with you, the south not always been the friendliest place for african-americans. it's been a difficult time for the president to present himself in a very positive light as a leader. it's not always been a good place for women to be able to present ourselves. it's more of a conservative place. so we've had to work a little bit harder on that. but the people trust me, i believe, really, they do, to trust me to do the right thing for the state. >> oh, boy. >> kirsten powers is a fox news analyst and usa today columnist. your reaction to that. >> astonishing. i don't know why she would say something like that. she's such a good politician. she's so smart. she really has stayed in this race, which i think has surprised a lot of people in a climate that's very hostile to democrats in a very conservative

state and she's really been hanging in there. she's down by about four points and i think this is going to be hard for her to recover from. >> really? >> she just insulted all the voters. she essentially said the voters in her state are racist and have problems with women. >> and sexist. a double whammy. >> i don't understand why she would say something like that. i think clearly they elected her. >> right. >> so i don't know why she would say that. >> and you look at, you know, we were just talking about new hampshire earlier. president obama has a 38% approval rating. that's not in the south and yet people don't really love his policie policies. it doesn't always boil down to race. >> yeah. >> but we've seen a lot of democrats make that mistake. what does it say she went to that place at this point days before the election? >> that she's very tired. i really don't have a good explanation for it. >> do you think it was a mistake? >> i do think it was a mistake because i don't think that

doesn't strike me as the kind of thing that would necessarily turn out african-american voters which is obviously something she's very concerned about it. may be something perhaps they think that and they are desperate. it strikes me as more of a gaffe. >> you think they're going to blow that up? >> well, the republicans are definitely. there's no question. also on the gender thing doesn't make any sense. i don't think that's going to necessarily help her. >> they put her in office three times. >> yeah. >> she's suggesting they're sexist? >> there's such an easy answer. the president's just unpopular. >> why does it have to be about his color? >> it doesn't have to be anything other than that. could be just she was saying what she thinks. could be a strategy because she is now down and desperate. i'm surprised at how close she's actually been able to keep it. so this just -- if this was a strategy i think it's a pretty

risky strategy. >> a risky one. you know, we heard hillary clinton stumping in iowa saying it doesn't matter, it's not about being a woman, it's about being an advocate for women's policies. legitimate point? >> it's a democratic talking point for sure. i think that's something a lot of democrats believe if you are for women you are pro-choice and you are pro a variety of democratic ideals. i think that joni ernst is somebody turning this upsidedown though. she's somebody running a different kind of race and a good model for republicans where she has -- you know, she never said she was trying to break the glass ceiling though she's showcased the fact she's a mother. she's showcasing her femininity in a state that has never sent a woman to washington. so she's aware of that. you contrast that with the democratic house candidate explicitly saying send me to

washington i'll be the first woman to go to washington. i think what joni ernst has done is highlighted her national credentials. >> do you think that statement could come back to haunt hillary clinton? that's not the point just to put a woman in office. i hear women in casual conversation say i would vote for hillary just because i want to see a woman win the presidency. >> it works for her because she does have all the right positions. >> republicans cut off the second half and say even she admits -- >> which i think she probably would say. if you pressed her i would think you don't do it because of the gender. i think you do it because i'm going to stand up for women and ghkts stand up for women. >> good to see you. next week's midterms one of president obama's go-to support groups may not be there. that story when we come back.

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the midterm elections one of president obama's go-to support groups may not be there for him or for his party. fox news correspondent leland vittert tell us why the so-called millennial may be charting a new course. >> we are still fired up. we are still ready to go. >> reporter: those were the days when the president and by

extension democrats held the youth vote, but times have changed among young liberals. >> i'm definitely seeing people much more apathetic. >> reporter: now a different crowd is fired up and ready to go. >> among the most enthusiastic of all segments within this 18 to 29-year-old cohort are young people who voted for mitt romney just a couple of years ago. >> reporter: a harvard study released today shows among millennial or voters 18 to 29 who say they will definitely be voting on tuesday 51% want a republican-run congress. compare that to midterms 2010 when 55% wanted a democratic congress, a stunning 16-point swing. >> it absolutely goes in the face that they're reliable democratic cohort every single election young people are politically up for grabs. >> reporter: digging deeper in the study shows a president who young adults voted for 2-to-1. now with approval numbers near

all-time lows. of those millennial voting 42% approve, 56% disapprove of the president's job performance. >> they didn't get help and change, they got worse outcome. nearly 16% of young americans are unemployed or given up looking for work, a third forced to move back in with parents. >> reporter: millennial report jobs and economy are their big issues. the larger question, which side, which candidate and which arguments will fire them up for 2016. in washington leland vittert, fox news. >> don't go away. we'll be right back. you owned your car for four years.

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thanks for watching. i'm megyn kelly. this is "the kelly file." this is a fox news alert. i'm lea gabriel in new york. jailed u.s. marine veteran on his way to becoming a free man again. a mexican judge ordering the immediate release of afghanistan war veteran who suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder. it's been 26 months since he was arrested by mexican authorities for crossing the border with loaded guns. he maintains he got lost on a california highway that got him lost with no way back. he carried loaded guns because his weapons which were purchased legally in the u.s. actually make him feel safer. the attorney also saying tahmooressi often feels