um... hold on. introducing the all-new volkswagen golf. plenty of room for whatever life throws at you. good evening everye . good evening, everyone. welcome to "the kelly file" midterm special. the obamacare controversy has faded from the headlines. democrats had a plan to make social issues the cornerstone of the 2014 midterms. but things soon started to unravel. vladimir putin and a group of ukrainian rebels suddenly threatened a cold war-style showdown. by june, a new story pushed mr. putin from the headlines here. thousands of unaccompanied children started showing up at

our southern border and ended up warehoused in detention centers and elsewhere and it got ugly fast. the border issue played out and a bigger crisis was taking shape in the middle east. on june 10th, an army of terrorists calling themselves the islamic state capturing the iraqi city of mosul. they had already taken fallujah and ramadi. now they controlled the area the size of the united kingdom and declared a caliphate. president only seemed unwilling to engage until the horror of mt. sinjar. in the beginning of august, american tv screens were filled

with pictures like these, of christians and yazidis running for their lives as isis moved in. trapped on mt. sinjar with no food or water, the u.s. intervened and helped thousands escape. at least 300 died on that mountain. and then a new horror. here is "the kelly file" on august 13th. first, a horrifying message from the terrorists in iraq. islamic extremists releasing a new video claiming to show the beheading of an american journalist and now threatening to kill another american in their custody. for nearly 24 hours, the white house waited to react. under pressure to say something, the president came to the microphones while on vacation in martha's vineyard and said this. >> jim was taken from us a from an act of violence.

let's be clear about isil. they have rampaged across cities and villages killing innocent, unarmed civilians. there has to be a common effort to stop this cancer so it does not spread. >> less than 15 minutes later, the commander in chief was playing golf, in a move that he says was a mistake. since then, isis has pledged to degrade and destroy the terror army and his approval rating has sunk to new lows and the public is unconvinced. leon panetta did not help with a recent book that reminded voters of missed opportunities in iraq and syria and suggested there is no leadership in this white house. the white house is on defense as ebola finds his way to america. we were screening here at home and our hospitals knew what to

do, none of which held up. so what does this mean for tuesday's election? key to the democrat strategy has gotten far less play while the president and his policy has become the factor in almost all of the key races. joining me now, joe tripi, a former campaign manager for howard dean and karl rove, whose former deputy chief of staff was george bush. both are fox news contributors. karl, which do you think has the most impact on what we're going to see tuesday night? >> well, it's hard to pick them apart because they've been conflated all into one thing, which is concern about the safety of the united states of america and, secondly, about the competence and the ability and leadership of the president of the united states. you've actually left, however,

one of the most important issues that is in this election off of the list that he is the poor performance of the economy. we're creating jobs and we're growing but the job growth is relatively anemic. the unemployment rate -- >> but that was when he went from holding steady to what may be a political freefall. >> well, you're right. but as these questions about the competence arose, the president's job approval numbers on handling the economy had similarly dropped and some polls into the 30s and most polls into the low 40s. so this whole thing has had a corrosive effect on the president's standing. it's caused people to go back and re-examine, it this president up to the job and do they need to send him a message about the final two years he has in office? you're right, the issue security in mid-august, it was not even on the list of the top concerns in a cbs poll.

six weeks later, it was number two after the economy but the economy has continued to be week and underperforming. people's concerns about their jobs and paychecks have now become part and parcel, is the president up to the job? >> joe, is he a victim of circumstance, a victim of circumstance or a victim of his and their own policies? >> well, both. both of those things are true. but the remarkable thing, megyn, when you go through that whole litany of the beginning of this discussion and you go through that and look at the fact that in all of these races, with all of that being on voters' minds, every one of them is a dead heat. sure, some democrats are behind but they are all in it. the number of races that are this tight, given the president's low ratings -- and by the way, that's the single

most indicator in a midterm election, where is the president's approval. and when they are this low, to have this many competitive races does reflect something else on the other side, that there is -- there is disenchantment with the republican party and both sides, democrats and republicans in congress. i actually think this could be a really punishing november election in which incumbents in both parties, some will be surprised by lose their seat. >> we could wipnd up with a republican-controlled senate and mitch mcconnell is not the majority leader. there is an anti-incumbent mood, is there not? >> nobody talks about montana, south dakota, and west virginia anymore. they made an effort to recruit high-quality candidates and thought they succeeded in doing

so they recruited a tough candidate in kentucky and this race has floated out of the democrats and mitch mcconnell is going to return to the united states senate comfortably. the president is going to get a whooping. the big question is how big is that whooping and the question is, are they going to wake up with 49, 48, 47, 50, 51. i think most of the people, all of the major news organization models from ""the huffington post" to "the new york times" predict all the way up into the 90s. so there are a large number of races out there that are to be settled. two races where the republicans lead but inside the margin of err error but i think that you'd have to say that the republicans have a very strong hand to play

on tuesday night. >> joe, do you feel that there is one or two races that would be sort of the bellwether for how the night will go? these things tend to trend one way or the other if you look back at the last 10, 15, 20 years. what are a couple of bellwethers? >> well, i would look at kentucky. it's going to be one of the first states whose polls closed. and if that is a tight race, if mcconnell is in trouble there, you know, then i would say, look, it could be -- what i'm saying, an anti-incumbent here. i'm with karl on this. it's going to be a bad night for democrats either way. we've got too many democrat incumbents up this year. but i would look at early on in the night. i think we'll get an indication with kentucky. >> great to see you guys. much more to be conditioned with you guys on sunday and again on tuesday night. >> thanks, megyn.

chris is a key part of our decision team. he's on the decision desk crunching the numbers. perhaps you recall that infamous moment he and i had in 2012. up next, his prediction on what you should expect tuesday night, especially in new hampshire where jeanne shaheen was considered a shoe-in until this question started coming up. >> do you approve of the job president only is doing? there will be a chance to follow up, but this is a yes or no answer. do you approve? yes or no? stamps.com is the best.

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. senator shaheen, imagine you're at home wearing your citizen hat and you get a call from a pollster asking the following question. do you approve of the job president only is doing? now, they'll be a chance to follow up but this is a "yes" or "no" answer. >> in some ways i approve and in some ways i don't approve. so -- >> oh, boy. that was new hampshire senator jeanne shaheen in a debate with republican senator scott brown. it's hard to imagine if much laughter at shaheen headquarters has this race has tightened up. shaheen maintained at least a ten-point polling lead for the last six months, even to see that disappear in the last few weeks. chief political correspondent paul cameron with a look at how

that happened. >> reporter: thanks, megyn. the u.s. senate race in new hampshire may show how potent the race could be. in this race, it's a virtual dead heat. jeanne shaheen going after republican challenger scott brown. he's a republican. last, the u.s. senator from massachusetts. because he's not from new hampshire, the phrase of carpet bagger has been thrown around. she joked about it using the very controversial issue of immigration reform to talk about keeping scott brown out of new hampshire. >> we sort of let this guy sneak over the border. you probably have noticed that we've been debating border security a little bit in the campaign. literally, we didn't do enough to secure the southern border in new hampshire. >> she's voted not to secure the border, not to send troops to the border. i have. and i'm going to continue to bring that message to the people and, listen, to their rational

fears about this real issue. >> reporter: brown is drawing big and enthusiastic crowds and he's making the argument that jeanne shaheen has been a loyal democratic supporter for the only agenda and for that needs to be fired. things like obamacare and handling of every issue that has been debated over these two. they just released their final arguments for the closing ads of this campaign and in the case of s shaheen, she makes the point that she's lived and worked in new hampshire and that's not the case for brown. brown says, as long as she's voting 99% with only, the country won't get any better. >> carl cameron, thank you. joining me is chris who will be part of our decision desk on election night because he knows everything that there is to know about politics. how big of a mistake was that? she was running a relatively

mistake-free campaign and had a double-digit lead over him and then that debate and answer, which is a dodge, how badly did she hurt herself there? >> well, she was running basically no campaign. she was spending some money but brown was so far what changed this race unquestionably was a shift in the issue set to foreign policy national security border security, ebola, all of that stuff which, by the way, in new hampshire, which is a state that tends to be socially liberal on national security issues, is rock, ribbed and very conservative. scott brown was the right guy for the moment and she really staggered and stumbled when it came to being a strong supporter of the president and couldn't say so. >> he's been very disinmr.ed. he hasn't made a lot of mistakes in his campaign. if he wins, is it because of

this national sway on the issues? >> he definitely hustled himself all over that state. yes, it's the issue set that changed. it's a lot of things but it's the way the president handled national security, foreign policy issues, really cooked this race up as a possible for the republicans. >> much more with chris standing by. we want to go to north carolina now where the showdown between kay hagan and thom tillis has become the costliest in the midterms. it's topped $100 million. do you believe that? an estimated 70% coming from outside groups. a fact that has not gone unnoticed. >> north carolina is the purple state but i feel very good about where we are. i do think this out of state money is something that i'm upset about. >> but you've benefited from it as well. >> i think no matter who gives

money it should be transparent. >> but as long as the money is to support you, it is okay? >> i certainly wish we could disclose no matter who gives money, that the public knows and follows that. >> good for gwen. it was a good interview. john roberts is following the race and filed this report. >> reporter: north carolina is in a highly competitive race. the republican candidates thom tillis running against kay hagan. hagan has been hammering tillis. tillis fire back that hagan's senate career has been less than distinguished. >> what do you think her biggest liability is? >> the fact that she hasn't gotten anything done. she broke her promise on obamacare, on fixing the v.a., on reducing the debt. >> reporter: the charlotte

observer newspaper, when endorsing her last sunday said, quote, she's been a disappointment and has done the minimum you'd expect as a u.s. senator. she's managed to keep her head above water by tieing tillis to state house speaker to a very unpopular legislature. >> it's very much tom tillis. candidate of the assembly. kay hagan has been able to shift the dynamics to make it a race about him and the general assembly. that is very unpopular in the state among democrats and particularly among unaffiliated voters. >> reporter: this is most likely to go down as the most expensive senate race in history. and after all of that, this is anyone's race. megyn? >> john roberts, thank you. now back to chris stirewalt.

they say that this race is not like the others. do you agree? >> i disagree. this whole election on steroids, this is the way -- seriously. they have squeezed every part of them into their respective camps instead of other states where some are bouncing along. in north carolina, the relentless campaigning has forced everyone into their respective camps and then it comes down to turnout. there's no question that kay hagan has done a very good job of appealing to base voters and putting out a warning for black voters what a republican senate would mean in north carolina. >> and then we saw this ad by a black state senator from louisiana released in north carolina for the other side saying that the democrat policies hurt the african-american community. how much of a factor is that turnout machine that democrats built over the last two or three

election cycles going to beer? >> huge. this is an abs-muolute must-win state. republicans know it. >> chris stirewalt, back to you in a minute. colorado democrats are turning increasingly blue. why are they endorsing the republican senate candidate? the answer is next. plus, we'll breakdown the most powerful political ads of the midterms. howie kurtz is here. nothing beats america's favorite

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well, that was an ad from this campaign season from senator mark udall and the message has not changed since then. while udall is doing good with women and endorsed cory gardener in is surprise move. >> megyn, senator mark udall's strategy seems to have backfired a bit because his polls are showing him behind cory gardener though he's still in the margin of error. it's allowed his opponent to paint him as unconcerned about the jobs and economy. udall has tried to cast gardener who is anti-women, pointing out that gardener has twice voted for an amendment that would

redefine a person's rights as beginning at conception. when the votes are tallies in colorado, women likely won't be the deciding factor. instead, experts say, latino voters will make the difference. two years ago, latinos represented 14% of voters giving the state to president only. but now there is clearly disappointment with president only and democrats for failure to issue an agreement or immigration reform. and now gardener has enlisted the help of jeb bush. listen. [ speaking in foreign language ] >> translation, vote for cory gardener. but democrats are concerned that latinos will flee to the gop and their concern that latino voters will stay home and that could

cost udall the race. now back to chris stirewalt. what is it going to come down to? latino vote? >> they have this new law in colorado with mail-in voting, same-day registration. it's a doozy. >> that is legislature that is very blue. it's supposed to help democrats. >> can you poll correctly? democrats say you can't. but the polling has been heinous for mark udall. it has been bad. and if the polls are accurate, he will lose. >> how did that happen? >> he ran a terrible campaign. when they laugh at a debate and they say you earned the name

mark uterus -- >> did they mean it as a compliment? >> i don't know. maybe they did. >> if this was taking place in a movie, this race would be taking place in a gyn office. >> he really did that. >> instead of please vote, it's please slide down. women will understand that. they did it with a candidate by the name of joni ernst. she's become a rising republican star even though she's only a state senator. she's a mother, a soldier, a farmer, and a blue collar worker and enough of a threat to bruce braley that democrats this week sent in one of the big guns. >> it's not enough to be women.

you have to expand rights and opportunity for women. >> carl cameron is joining us from iowa. >> reporter: thank you, megyn. this state has a long history of being fairly fickle and hasn't been going with the conventional wisdom in the polls. the polls show that joni ernst is in the lead. we've still got four more days of attack waves filling the hawkeye state. joni's campaign began with an ad, with the castration of hogs. that's how it's been dubbed. take a look. >> i grew up castrating hogs on a form. when i get to washington, i'll know how to cut pork. >> reporter: bruce braley got

off to a rocky start in texas. he started about his career as a lawyer. he made a slur and suggested he was only a farmer and insulted farmers here in iowa, which it wasn't a good start for him. it's been incredibly close and republicans and conservative groups are doing the same. >> you might have a farmer from iowa who never went to law school or practiced law. >> reporter: iowa is identified as a must-win state to protect the majority. it's iowa, colorado and north carolina. in iowa she has a lead although it's with a margin of error. democrats have had an advantage with absentee ballots.

it's been 40 days of early voting and absentee ballots. republicans could be going into tuesday with a nice big gain. >> carl cameron, thank you. now back to chris stirewalt. >> the great ad got her the nomination, no question. what got her into contention was the new look gop. she's a new look for the gop which is, as you said, blue collar, hardworking, soldier mom, all of that is good branding but don't discount that bruce braley has been a terrible candidate. he was expected to walk away with this. he didn't get there. he ran poorly. she ran with it. democrats have long counted on women voters to save the day. why that may not work this time. plus, howie kurtz is here with the ads making news.

>> in 2008, 95% of black voters in north carolina voted for kay hagan. democrats created the illusion that they have a salvation of the black community. who among us have they saved? feet...tiptoeing. better things than the pain, stiffness, and joint damage of moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis. before you and your rheumatologist decide on a biologic, ask if xeljanz is right for you. xeljanz (tofacitinib) is a small pill, not an injection or infusion, for adults with moderate to severe ra for whom methotrexate did not work well. xeljanz can relieve ra symptoms, and help stop further joint damage. xeljanz can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers have happened in patients taking xeljanz. don't start xeljanz if you have any infection, unless ok with your doctor. tears in the stomach or intestines, low blood cell counts and higher liver tests and cholesterol levels have happened.

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to help you feel less hungry between meals. and promotes heart health. experience the meta effect with our new multi-health wellness line and see how one small change can lead to good things. live from "america's news headquarters," u.s. marine veteran andrew tahmooressi is free after eight months in a mexican jail, he's now home in florida. a mexican judge ordering the immediate release of the afghanistan war veteran who suffers from ptsd. mexican authorities arrested the 26-year-old for crossing the border with loaded guns. he said he crossed the border mistakenly. investigators are trying to

figure out what caused the galatic spaceship to explode yesterday. richard branson, the company founder, is vowing to find out what went wrong. i'll see you at the top of the hour for "america's news headquarters." i'll get you back now to megyn kelly. enjoy your saturday. welcome back to "the kelly file" midterm special. campaigns are remembered for the political ads that flood the airwaves and they have gotten especially fierce with ads in the state of north carolina. first, democrats tried to tie it to trayvon martin. then, came this from the other side. >> black people are just being used by limousine liberals who have become our overseers.

>> howie kurtz airs on sunday morning. good to see you. in north carolina and other states, we've seen it boil down to these ads. are they having a real impact or is it more gaffes and what other campaigns do on the road. >> i think using an african-american state senator makes sense but when he says trading one plantation for another or food stamps, it's going to turn black voters off. you mentioned ferguson with ads not even in missouri. this is trying to get them excited on an emotional hot button issues. >> in north carolina we have seen that in the last couple of weeks. >> absolutely. >> all right. let's talk about iowa and the joni ernst ad and the talk about pigs and it worked for her. >> this absolutely put joni

ernst on the national level. who is going to be offended, except some pig lovers. >> they talked about a pig and then showed a little one. >> that's an effective piece of point. >> that's the point, to get you talking about it. what about out in colorado, how mark udall has been focused on women issues that they call him senator uterus out there but he keeps hitting the women issues, including in this ad that we're showing here. >> well, i think that's it's been effective for udall for this reason, going after his oppone oppone oppone opponent cory gardener says i'm for over-the-counter birth control but i've changed my mind about this personhood amendment. so he actually moved the ball on this but udall appears to be

pounding this above all else. >> in new hampshire, jeanne shaheen is in a battle with scott brown and he wasn't expected to do much in this race but now he's closed a ten-point gap. here's an ad that she has run attacking him on women's issues. let's watch. >> in massachusetts, scott brown pushed for a law to force women considering abortion, force them to look at color photographs of developing fetuses. >> now, he came out and called that despicable. "the washington post" gave it one pinnochio which means mostly correct. >> she's trying to get female voters in new hampshire to feel that scott brown is not on their side. he said i'm pro choice, despite that legislation, and he says i'm hearing from jeanne shaheen who has voted for six years for president only.

no matter what the charges are, my opponent doesn't like children, you can come back and say, yeah, but she was seen in a room with president only. they are trying to us auto the president's unpopularity against democrats in every instance that they can. >> how much do you think tv presence affects these races? does it matter if you're good on tv, if you're good in a debate it will help but how important has tv become in penetrating the electorate? >> i think tv is most of the ball game. candidates don't do much in terms of town halls, spend millions on attack ads. you can get a reasonable commercial out of it. what happens is, there's so many negative ads that people get sick of them and start to wonder what side should i believe. >> you wind up feeling disgusted at the end of the process and then they stay home, which is not what they are supposed to do. howie, thank you. >> thank you. a new controversy showing up on the campaign trail. kristen powers on mary landrieu

on race and gender. >> the south has not always been the friendliest place for african-americans. it's been a difficult time for the president to present himself in a positive light as a leader. it's not always easy for women to present ourselves. it's always been a conservative place. crest gave one friend crest 3d white whitestrips, and the other, a whitening toothpaste. here's what they thought. i can't tell if the paste whitens. eeww... well the white strips worked. yeah, the paste didn't do that. crest whitestrips work on a deeper level than paste. whitening toothpaste only removes surface stains. but white strips go below the enamel surface. to safely remove deep stains. it says they whiten 25x better than the leading whitening toothpaste. crest 3d white whitestrips, the way to whiten. use this collection together to whiten in just 1 day.

and now to a new couldn't

ver controversy on the campaign trail where mary landrieu was asked about her policies and watch her answer. >> i'm going to be very honest with you, in the south it's not been the friendliest place for african-americans. it's been a difficult time for the president to present himself in a positive light as a leader. it's not always been a good place for women to be able to present ourselves. it's more of a conservative place. so we've had to work a little bit harder on that. but the people trust me, i believe, really, they do, to trust me to do the right thing for the state. >> oh, boy. kirsten powers is a fox news political analyst. she joins me now. your reaction to that? >> astonishing. i really don't know why she would say something like that. she's such a good politician. she's so smart. she really has stayed in this race, which i think has surprised a lot of people in a climate that is very hostile to democrats and in a very conservative state and she really has been hanging in

there. she's down by four points and i think it's going to be very hard for her to recover from. >> really? >> she just insulted all the voters. she essentially said that the voters in her state are racist and have problems with women. >> and sexist. a double whammy. >> yes. i don't know why she would say something like that. and clearly they ee equilected >> right. and you look at new hampshire, president only has a 38% approval rating. >> exactly. >> that's not in the south and yet people don't really love his policies. >> exactly. >> it doesn't always boil down to race but we've seen a lot of democrats make that mistake but what's to say she went to that place at this point days before the election? >> that she's very tired? i really don't have a good explanation for it. >> do you think it was a mistake or -- >> i do think it was a mistake because i don't think -- it doesn't strike me as the kind of

thing that would necessarily turn out african-american voters which is obviously something that she was very concerned about. >> right. >> perhaps maybe they think that and they are desperate. it strikes me as more of a gaffe. >> do you think they are going to blow that up? >> the republicans are, most definitely. there's no question. and even on the gender thipg, that doesn't make any sense. i don't think that's going to necessarily help her. >> to put her in office three times. >> yeah, yeah. >> and she's suggesting they are sexist. >> there's such an easy answer. the president is just unpopular. >> right. >> he's just unpopular across the country. >> why does it have to be about his color? >> it doesn't have to be anything more than that. it could be that she was just saying what she thinks. could be a strategy because she is now down and she's desperate. i'm surprised how close she's been able to keep it. if this was a strategy, i think it's a pretty risky strategy.

>> what do you make of hillary clinton stopping in iowa saying, it's not just about being a woman, it's about being an advocate for women's policies. >> right. right. >> legitimate point? >> it's a democratic talking point for sure. i think that's something that a lot of democrats believe that if you are for women, they are you are pro-choice and you are pro a variety of democratic ideals. i think that joni ernst is somebody who is kind of turning all of this upside down. she's running a different kind of race and i think it's a good model for republicans where she has never said that she's trying to break the glass ceiling though she has showcased the fact that she's a mother. so she's showcasing both her femininity but in a state that has never sent a woman to washington. so these aware of that. you contrast that with the democratic house candidate who is explicitly saying, send me to

washington, i'll be the first woman to go to washington. i think what joni ernst has done is highlighted her national security credentials. >> do you think that statement could come back to haunt hillary clinton, the first half of it? >> what part of it? >> it's not enough to put a woman in office. i've heard women say i will vote for hillary because i want a woman to be a president. >> cut off the second half and even say even she admits, you don't put somebody in office just because they are a woman. >> i think she would say, it's not because of the gender but it's because i'm going to stand up for women and democrats stand up for women. >> good to see you, kirsten powers. one of president only's go-to support groups may not be there during the midterm election. that's when we come back.

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the midterm elections one of president obama's go-to support groups may not be th in the midterm elections one of president obama's support groups may not be there for him or his party. fox news correspondent tells us why the so-called millenials may be charting a new course. >> we are still fired up! we are still ready to go!

>> those were the days when the president and by extension democrats held the youth vote. but times have changed among young liberals. >> i am definitely seeing people more apathetic. >> reporter: now a different crowd is fired up and ready to go. >> among the most enthusiastic of segments within the 18-24 are people who voted for mitt romney. >> reporter: a harvard study shows among voters 1-29 who say they will definitely be voting tuesday, 51% want a republican led congress. compare to 2010 when 55% wanted a democratic congress. a stunning 16-point swing. >> it absolutely goes in the face that they're reliable democratic cohort every single election young people are politically up for grabs. >> digging deeper shows a president whom young adults voted for 2-1. now with approval numbers near

all-time lows. of those millenials voting, 42% approve. 56 prs di 56% disapprove of the president's performance. >> they didn't get hope and change. 16% of young americans are unemployed. a third have been forced to move back in with their parents. >> reporter: no surprise, reporting jobs and the economy as biggest concerns. as we look beyond the mid terms with this intensely passionate voting bloc now up for grabs it brings up the larger question, of which side, which candidates. which arguments will fire them up for 2016 t in washington, fox news. >> don't go away. we'll be right back. so,as my personal financial psychic,

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balanced. thank you for joining us. i'm megan kelly. this is "the kelly file." hello, i'm arthel neville. >> i'm eric shawn. topping the news, it has horrible week for private space industry. two major accidents just this week. the latest one, sadly, taking a space adventurer's life. >> also, violence on the rise in iraq. and the u.n. points to the isis terror army. that on the heels of the latest mass execution, killings that apparently happen every day. >> the countdown to the mid terms. republicans are pulling out all the