good evening e >> good evening everyone. kelly files mid term special. to understand what may happen tuesday we need to start with last spring. the obamacare controversy faded from the headlines obama approval headed back from the 30's. things soon started to unravel. vladimir putin and a group of rebels suddenly threatened a cold war style slow down. by june a new story pushed the headlines here thousands of unaccompanied children started showing up at the border overwhelming border patrol.

they ended up in detention centers and elsewhere. one turned away buses full of these immigrants. the border issue played out an even bigger crisis was taking place in the mideast. >> on june 10th an army of terrorists calling themselves the i say lackic state captured the iraqi city of mosul. they would take tick crete. president obama dismissing them as jd. they control the area the size of the united kingdom declaring the creation of a cal fate. president obama denounced the group but was unwilling to engage until the horror of mount san j sanjara. in the beginning of august american tv screens were filled with pictures like these of i

can't see p,wzied yazidi's. trapped with no food water or shelter they intervened and helped thousands escape. 300 died on the mountain and then a new horror. here is the kelly file on august 19th. first a horrifying message for america from the terrorists in iraq. islamic extremists releasing a new video claiming to show the beheading of an american journalist and now threatening to kill another american in their custody. for nearly 24-hours the white house waited to react. under pressure to say something they went to the microphones on vacation in martha's vineyard and said this. his life signs in our contracts as killers.

they have rampaged across cities and villages killing innocent unarmed civilians. there has to be a common effort to extract this cancer so it doesn't spread. less than 50 minutes late he was playing golf. he said it was a mistake. committed air strikes and more troops to destroy this army. policy numbers spoke to new lows. the public is convinced leon pin n net taw said there is no leadership in this white house. before the mid tirms the white house is ee defense adds ebola is over here despite the fact that we were screaming at home and our hospitals knew not which

to do. what does this mean the social iss issues have gotten far less play: it has become the factor of almost all key races. >> he has worked on a number of presidential campaigns and karl rove former deputy chief of staff signor advisor to president bush both fox news contributors. of all of the items i picked off which do you think i hahas had most impact on what we are going to see tuesday night? >> it is hard to pick them apart because they have been inflated the voe voters all under one thing. secondly the confidence and ability and leadership of the president of the united states. these things reason you flowed through. you have left one of the most important issues that is in this

election off of the list. that is the poor fer form man's of the economy. we are great jobs and we are growing. the unemployment rate has been working slowly ksh ksh. per holding steady manned that mean a political refall. >> the president's job approval numbers have similarly dropped they are in some polls into the 30's and most polls into the 40's. this has had an effect on the president's old state. he had people go back and reexamine is this president up for the job and do they need to send him a message about the final two years he is in office. the issue of security in mid august it wasn't on the list of top concerns in a cbs poll.

six years later it was number 2. the economy continued to be weak and people are concerned about their jobs and paycheck have now become part and parcel of this president is the president up for a job. >> was he a victim of circumstance or a victim of his and their own policy? >> both of those things are true. the remarkable thing you go through that whoelt litany in the beginning of this discussion, you look at the fact every single one of them are in a dead heat. some democrats are behind a little bit more. they are all in it. the number that are this height given the low rating -- by the twhais the single most biggest

indicator in the mid term election. it doesn't real flekt anything on the other side there is disenchantment with the republican party and congress. they are democrats and republica republicans. i think this could be a really punishing november election in which incumbents in both parties, some they would be surprised lose their seat. >> we could wind up with a pro pub can senate and rich mcconnell is not an anti majority leader. there is an anti incumbent mood. >> let's be careful how many races are still in play. monday cana and west virginia. the republicans leading the races by double digits. they recruited a tough candidate

in kentucky. i think mes pundits would leave can there is convention for the kem krat and they mr. stay there. the quo is beau pig is that woman. i think most people all of the election all of the major news organization models from huffington post to "washington post" to new york sometimtimes 538.com the senate starting with the lowest number 63 percent up into the 99 -- 90's. there are two races where the republicans lead but inside the margin of error two where democrats are. you have to say the republicans have a strong play to tuesday

night. >> do you feel there are one or two races that could be the bell weather for how the night will go? these things trend if you look back over the 10, 20, 15 years. what are a couple of bell weathers? >> i would look at kennelling k -- kentucky. the polls close if that is the tight race if mcconnell is in trouble then i would say, look, it could be more what i am saying an die incumbent. i am with carl on this it will be anti obama and anti republican. we will get early indication with kentucky. >> much more to be continued sunday and more on tuesday night. >> digital politics chris dire

is on the desk. perhaps he did wall that he and i have in the president 1 is -- in new hampshire he was a shoe in for this time tomorrowing up president only is doing? there will be a chance to follow up, but this is a yes or no answer, do you approve yes or no? ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] great rates for great rides. geico motorcycle, see how much you could save.

. senator shaheen, imagine you're at home wearing your citizen hat and you get a call from a pollster asking the following question. do you approve of the job president only is doing? now, they'll be a chance to follow up but this is a >> do you approve yes or no? >> in some ways i approve, some ways i don't approve. >> that was jean shaheen in a debate with scott brown more than a week ago. the crowd thought it was a funnç moment. hard to see if there is much laughter going on scott brown was not supposed to be a contender. shaheen maintained a 10 point polling lead only to see that disappear in the last few weeks. carl cameron with a look at how

it happened. >> thanks megan. the u.s. senate race= potatoed tent anti obama and democratic strategy by republicans could be. she is going after her republican challenger scott brown. he's a republican. last the u.s. senator from massachusetts. because he's not from new hampshire the carpet bagger has been thrown around a bit. she joked about it using controversial issue about reform. watch. >> let this guy sneak over the border you probably notice them debating border security in this campaign. we didn't do enough for the senate border in new hampshire. >> she voted not to secure the border not to send troops to the border. i have. i am going to extend that to the people and listen to their

rational fears about the real issue. >> john mccain is basically making the argument that chief sh jean shaheen needs to be fired. in new hampshire talking the unpopularity of obama virtually every issue has been debated. they released their final arguments to the closing ad in this case. she didn't just move here. refrn to brown. brown made a point as long as he's voting 99 percent with obama new hampshire won't get any better. >> joining me is chris harwell he knows everything there is to know about politics. >> how big of a stake w-- mistae was it? she had a double dig get lead over him and then that debate

and that answer, it was dodged how badly was she hurt there? >> she was spending some money but brown was so far back she didn't take it seriously. she didn't do town hall wasn't going to do many debates. what changed this race withtyñh shift and issue set two foreign policy national security. border security, ebola. >> scott brown was the right guy for the moment. they stumbled to become a strong supporter of the president. >> he has been very disciplined hasn't made a lot of mistakes in his campaign. if he winds up winning this race is it because of the national sway on the issues. can you attribute it to anything other than that? >> you are right?

he hustled himself all over that state. yes, the issues could change. it's the way the president handled national security foreign policy issues really cooked this race up is it possible for republicans. >> much more of kris standing by we want to go to where kate hagan and tom till lis has become the costliest race of the mid terms. we saw reports this week spending in this fight has topped $100 million. do you believe that? with an estimated 70 percent coming from outside groups. a fact that has not gone unnoticed. >> north carolina is this purple state. i feel very good about where we are. i do think that out of state money is something that i am very disappointed in. it is because of the supreme court decision. >> you benefited from it as well. i think no hatter who gives one.

as long as people are -- no matter who gets money the public knows. >> good interview. senior national correspondent john roberts is following this race and this report. >> north carolina fliis one of heavily controlled seats. the republican candidate tom ti tilis running neck and neck with hagan. tillis. tillis fire back that hagan's senate career has been less than distinguished. >> what do you think her biggest liability is? >> the fact that she hasn't gotten anything done. she broke her promise on obamacare, on fixing the v.a., on reducing the debt. >> reporter: the charlotte

observer newspaper, when endorsing her last sunday said, quote, she's been a disappointment and has done the minimum you'd expect as a u.s. senator. she's managed to keep her head above water by tieing tillis to state house speaker to a very unpopular legislature. >> it's very much tom tillis. candidate of the assembly. kay hagan has been able to shift the dynamics to make it a race about him and the general assembly. that is very unpopular in the state among democrats and particularly among unaffiliated voters. >> reporter: this is most likely to go down as the most expensive senate race in history. and after all of that, this is anyone's race. megyn? >> john roberts, thank you. now back to chris stirewalt. they say that this race is not

like the others. do you agree? >> i disagree. this whole election on steroids, this is the way -- seriously. they have squeezed every part of them into their respective camps instead of other states where some are bouncing along. in north carolina, the relentless campaigning has forced everyone into their respective camps and then it comes down to turnout. there's no question that kay hagan has done a very good job of appealing to base voters and putting out a warning for black voters what a republican senate would mean in north carolina. >> and then we saw this ad by a black state senator from louisiana released in north carolina for the other side saying that the democrat policies hurt the african-american community. how much of a factor is that turnout machine that democrats built over the last two or three

election cycles going to beer? >> huge. this is an abs-muolute must-win state. republicans know it. >> chris stirewalt, back to you in a minute. colorado democrats are turning increasingly blue. why are they endorsing the republican senate candidate? the answer is next. plus, we'll breakdown the most powerful political ads of the midterms. howie kurtz is here.

>> that was one of the first ads this season and the message has not changed much since then. while udall is polling well with women the denver post slammed what it called an obnoxious single issue race by udall and endorsed republican challenger corey guard they are in a surprisur -- gardener in the move. >> megyn senator udall's strategy back fired a little bit after most polls show him falling behind gardener. they will be within the margin of error. udall's focus on reproductive rights painted him as a single issue candidate unconcerned about jobs and the economy. udall has cast him as an extreme conservative who is anti women pointing out gardener twice voted an amendment as a person's

right as beginning with conception. he countered the extreme conservative label coming in favor of over the counter contraceptive. women likely won't be the deciding factor instead experts say latino voters will make the difference. two years ago latinos represented 14 percent of colorado voters giving the state to president obama. pollsters now say there is clearly disappointment with obama and democrats for failing to deliver on a promise of immigration reform. corey gardener is actively campaigning for the latino vote even enlisting the help of potential 2016 presidential candidate jeb bush. watch? (speaking spanish) >> translation vote for corey gardener. democrats are concerned latino voters will flee to the gop. they are concerned latino voters will stay at home. if they do that could cause y

udall the race and possibly cost democrats the senate. >> back to politics he had pore. what will it come down to latino vote in colorado? >> mail end voting same day registration. it is a doozy. >> ef i have seen legislatures very blue it helps democrats. >> they like it a bunch. the question is can you poll the state correctly. democrats say you can't because there will be magical em anythingses coming from different precincts. but the polling has been tainted for mark udall. >> how did that happen? >> because he ran a terrible campaign. when they laugh at you during the debate when one of the interlockers says you are nicknamed mark uterus that's a

strong stand. >> they didn't mean it as a compliment. to take place in a movie voold be in the an ad in a gynecological office. >> instead of that it was instead of vote floi done. in iowa reone cans decided. they did it by a man gat who is joed bee e. enough of a threat to democrat bruce braley that democrats sent in one of the big gurns. >> it is not enough to be a woman.

you have to be committed to expand rights and opportunities for women. >> carl cameron outlines the fight in iowa. >> now that we are heading into the final weekend eye owians can finally make up their minds. we have a long history of being fairly fickle and understanding they haven't been going well with the polls. put her up 4 points and it is a warm and brulzing campaign as it is filling the airways. it began with an ad. it was the ad of castration are hoggs. take a look. >> i grew up castrating hogs on an iowa farm. when i get to washington i will know how to cut pork. >> her opponent is bruce brayley. >> he got off to a rocky start when he was going to a fundraiser in texas. he was talking about his history

as a lawyer. it was important for democrats win the north majority and keep it. otherwise the re pub can senator from iowa would end up being the chairman judiciary committee. he suggested he was only a farmer and insulted farmers in iowa. hasn't been a good start for him. democratic partied founding away and republicans and conservative grou groups look pretty much the same. >> you might have a farmer from iowa who never went to law school, never programtied law. >> identified as a so-called fire wall in order to inspect. they were iowa and north carolina. in iowa they have to release. when the early voting republicans got started early more than 30-days of early

voting ab sd tee says you would going into fuse. stirewalt.paignf >> the great ad got her the nomination, no question. what got her into contention was the new look gop. she's a new look for the gop which is, as you said, blue collar, hardworking, soldier mom, all of that is good branding but don't discount that bruce braley has been a terrible candidate. he was expected to walk away with this. he didn't get there. he walk awhich. >> thank you. oo oh in that may not work this

>> in 2008, 95% of black voters in north carolina voted for kay hagan. democrats created the illusion that they have a a a a a a a

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deli wright do you knack to you. file" midterm special. campaigns are remembered for the political ads that flood the airwaves and they have gotten especially fierce with ads in the state of north carolina. first, democrats tried to tie it to trayvon martin. then, came this from the other side. >> black people are just being used by limousine liberals who have become our overseers.

>> howie kurtz airs on sunday morning. good to see you. in north carolina and other states, we've seen it boil down to these ads. are they having a real impact or is it more gaffes and what other campaigns do on the road. >> i think using an african-american state senator makes sense but when he says trading one plantation for another or food stamps, it's going to turn black voters off. you mentioned ferguson with ads not even in missouri. this is trying to get them excited on an emotional hot

. >> in massachusetts, scott brown pushed for a law to force women considering abortion. force them to look at color photographs of developing fetuses. >> the "washington post" said mostly correct, but not fully correct. but did it work? >> it worked only in the sense that what is she trying to do? she's trying to get female voters to feel that scott brown is not on their side. he comes back and says, i'm pro-choice which is true. and he also says -- we're hearing this from jean. this is the gop play book.

my opponent doesn't like children. but she was seen in a room with president obama. the republicans very much trying to use the president's unpopularity. >> how much do you think tv presence affects these races? does it matter if you're good on tv? how important has tv become? >> i think increasingly tv is most of the ball game. candidates don't do quite as much in terms of town halls. even if they're not very good, you can get a reasonable commercial out of it. there's so many negative ads that people get sick of them and start to wonder which side should i believe. >> they wind up feeling disgusting and stay home. good to see you. up next, a brand new controversy cropping up on the campaign trail.

powers on southern voters, race, and gender. it's not always in the friendliest place for african-americans. it's been a difficult time for the president to present his doubts. not always been a great place for women to be able to present ourselves. it's more of a conservative praise.

and now to a new couldn't

ver controversy on the campaign trail where mary landrieu was asked about her policies and watch her answer. >> i'm going to be very honest with you, in the south it's not been the friendliest place for african-americans. it's been a difficult time for the president to present himself in a positive light as a leader. it's not always been a good place for women to be able to present ourselves. it's more of a conservative place. so we've had to work a little bit harder on that. but the people trust me, i believe, really, they do, to trust me to do the right thing for the state. >> oh, boy. kirsten powers is a fox news political analyst. she joins me now. your reaction to that? >> astonishing. i really don't know why she would say something like that. she's such a good politician. she's so smart. she really has stayed in this race, which i think has surprised a lot of people in a climate that is very hostile to democrats and in a very conservative state and she really has been hanging in

there. she's down by four points and i think it's going to be very hard for her to >> she just insulted all of the voters. she essentially said that voters in her state are racist and have problems with women. >> sexist. double whamy. >> clearly they elected her. so i don't know why she would say that. >> and you look at, you know, we were talking about in new hampshire earlier president obama has a 38 percent approval rating. that's not in the south and people don't love his palsies. if that doesn't always boil town to race. we have seen democrats make that mistake. when is the day she went there. kays before the election. >> that she is very tired. i don't have a good explanation of it. >> do you think it was a mistake? >> i think it was a mistake because i don't think -- doesn't strike me as the kind of thing that would necessarily turnout

african american voters which is something she is concerned about. it may be something, perhaps maybe they think that and they are desperate. it strikes me more of a gap, though. >> you think they are going to blow it up? >> definitely there's no question. >> even on the gender thing it doesn't make they sense. i don't think that that is going to necessarily help her. >> put her in office three times. >> yeah, yeah. >> she is suggesting their sexist? >> like you said there's such an easy answer. i sdpnt -- it doesn't have to be anything other than that. it could be she was saying what she thinks. it could be a strategy because it is down. i am surprised how close we have been able to keep it. if this was a strategy i think it's a pretty risky strategy.

>> what oh do we hear when we talk about hillary clinton. it's not just about being a women it's being an advocate for children's policies. >> it's a democratic shocking point a lot believe if you are fo for women you are pro choice. pro variety of democratic ideals. the i think that joanie earnsrns somebody who is turning this up said down. she is running a different kind of race. it's a good model for republicans where she has never said she is trying to break the glass ceiling though she has showcased the fact had a she is a mother. she is showcasing but she is jumping over in a state that has never elected never sent a woman to washington p. she is aware of that. contrast that with the democratic house candidate who is explicitly saying send me to washington i will be the first women to go to washington.

i think what ernst has done is highlighted the national security credentials. >> here's another question. do you think that statement could come back to haunt hillary clinton the first half of it not just about electing a women. that's not the point just to put a woman in office. i hear a lot of women who in casual conversation say i would vote for hillary just because i want to see the women with the president. it works for her because she has all of the right positions. right? cut off the second half and say even she admits. you don't put somebody out there just because of the gender. i don't think you do it just because of the gender but to stand up for other women. >> next week's midterms one of president obama's go to work groups. at's when we come back.

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i'm just looking over the company bills.up? is that what we pay for internet? yup. dsl is about 90 bucks a month. that's funny, for that price with comcast business, i think you get like 50 megabits. wow that's fast. personally, i prefer a slow internet. there is something about the sweet meditative glow of a loading website. don't listen to the naysayer. switch to comcast business today and get 50 megabits per second for $89.95. comcast business. built for business. >> the mid term elections one of president obama's go to support groups may not be there for him or for his party. leland vittert tells us why the so-called melinnials may be charting a new course. >> we are so fired up. we are so ready to go. >> those were the days when the president and by extension democrats held the youth vote

but times have changed among young liberals. >> i am seeing people more apathetic. >> now a different crowd is fired up and ready to go. >> among the most enthusiastic of all segments within the 18 to 29-year-old cohorts are those who voted for mitt romney a couple years ago. >> a harvard study shows among voters 18 to 29 who say they will be voting on tuesday, 51 percent want a republican run congress. the compare that to mid terms 2010 when 55 percent wanted a democratic congress. a stunning 16 point swing. >> it goes with the face that they are reliable democratic cohort every single election. people are politically up for grabs. young adults voted for 2-1. now with approval numbers near all time lows. of those millennials definitely

voting 42 percent approve of courses 56 percent disapprove. >> they got worse outcomes. nearly 16 percent of young americans are unemployed or given up work. >> no surprise millennials report jobs and the economy as their biggest concern. we look beyond the midterm with the voting block up for crabs it brings up the important question which side is candidates and which argument will fire them up for 2016. in washington leland vittert, fox news. >> don't go away. we will be right back. mmm, progressive insurance here.

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this is "the kelly files." this is the final stretch in the race to determined who holds the key to power in congress for the next two years. >> welcome to america's election headquarters, midterm special coming to you live from the fox news world headquarters in new york city. i'm bret baier. >> i'm megyn kelly. we'll be right here bringing you the election results. >> a series of new polls were released today including kentucky, where senate minority leader mitch mcconnell appears to be