weather, aircraft systems, possible ice crystals or something else.

those possibilities being considered in the disappearance ever airasia flight 8501. the records still have not been found. joining us on the phone, a former investigator for the national transportation safety board and author of air safety investigators. thank you for joining us on the telephone. what does your gut say first about potentially what happened? >> well, obviously, we know these kind of weather encounters are extremely dangerous. there's really two potential scenarios here. i'll give the good one first. it's the sully landing on the hudson. airbus said it will float for hours. and, you know, so the best case scenario, okay, the engine flamed out. they stucked up hail or who knows what.

lightning took out the communication system and the pilots have fwlid down and hit the ditching system switch and we got a group of people bobbing around in the satisfijava sea. that's the good scenario. the bad one is the al algier scenario in north africa another aircraft with boeing md 83, an older aircraft trying to avoid a severe weather and in that case the aircraft broke up in flight and everybody perished. so i don't know that i have a gut feel. i say the air algier scenario is probably had more likely, unfortunately, but we can just hope and pray that at first light they find the aircraft bobbing on the surface just like airbus promises. >> that would be certainly a miracle. that first light comes in just about an hour. it's 4:32 there now.

the sun will rise at 5:39. a moment ago we were showing those red severe thunder cells that this plane was flying into when the pilot requested to fly to a higher altitude. talk about a plane breaking up that air algier. what about airbus planes. back in 2001 american airlines light 587, it wasn't even a severe storm. it took off from an active runway in jfk in the vortex of a boeing 747. because it started to buffet as it was taking off apparently the co-pilot took a hard turn on the rudder and that tail came right off. that's unbelievable. you would think they would have solved that issue by now. is that a possibility here when you're dealing with composite elements, the new things that airbus and other manufacturers use. >> eric, what they've done, because of -- we learn from these accidents, and because of

that accident there out of jfk, american changed their training program and the word spread throughout the airbus operator fleet that don't do that, you can over power this rudder and laurel literally break it off. so they now train the pilots not to do that in heavy turbulence. do not use the rudder pedals to control the rudder. do not try to correct an imbalance or an upset by using your rudder. i hope we solved that problem but, of course, until we get the recorders, the flight data and cockpit voice recorder, we won't really know. and that's going to be the, hopefully we'll find the aircraft intact. if we don't we'll -- >> you raise an issue though finally american airlines changed its procedure, other

american airlines had that. would you think it would spread throughout the industry. does that type of new operational mode then affect airasia. does it go out over tory single operator of that type of aircraft or is it up to the individual airlines? >> certainly airbus is concerned about the safety of their products. they should. i don't know if they did it in this case. this is obviously a new airline. but, normally either boeing or airbus will immediately notify all their operators and of course they cannot direct manufacturers, unlike the government authorities cannot direct this training or in this case corrective training to occur but normally the airlines listen. when a manufacturer tells you stop doing that they normally listen. eric, i would hope that problem has been solved. i know early on they said this captain had 6,000 hours. that's quite a bit of flying time. i since read he had 20,000 hours

and had 6,000 hours in the airbus for airasia which means he's seen these kind of weather conditions in the past and i would hope he would know how to cope with them. we'll wait and see when we find whatever we find and hopefully tomorrow morning or in the next several days. >> the predictions are they could eventually find something very quickly. thank you. certainly seems that pilot is a veteran of airasia and veteran on board those type of planes. we'll certainly learn more if indeed that black box is recovered. julie? >> a ceremonial end to the longest war in u.s. history. u.s. and naturalo leaders returning security responsibilities in afghanistan back to its people. we've re-established contact with dan springer live from honolulu with the very latest. >> reporter: president obama, of course, is on vacation but keeping tabs on the hand over in

afghanistan. and today he issued a statement in which he thanked the troops for their sacrifice over the last 13 years and what a killed in what s been. has been the country's longest war and today it's officially over. in a ceremony in kabul they lowered the international security assistance force flag. now turns the job over to the afghan government. its president was there. along with the u.s. commander army general john campbell. >> today marks the end of an era, the beginning of a new one. today nato completes its combat mission, a 13 year era of significance achievements. >> reporter: on christmas day president obama greeted marines here in hawaii. he essentially declared mission accomplished when he said afghanistan would never again be a place where an attack on the u.s. is launched. the president's statement today said quote we're safer and our nation is more secure because of

their service. our courageous military helped the afghan people reclaim their communities. but then a more sobering reality pep said afghanistan remains a dangerous place and afghan people and their security forces continue to make tremendous sacrifices in defense of their country. no doubt the taliban is still a threat, 2014 has been a devastating year for the afghan people and their military. 5,000 soldiers have been killed along with 10,000 civilians. the most since the u.n. began tracking in 2009. just yesterday two teenage boys were killed in an attack. the u.s. will leave behind 11,000 troops. they will thereabout to support the afghan military, train them, give support and counterterrorism activities. thank you very much. crews are now preparing to resume the search for the airasia flight that's missing. it's monsoon season there. huge thunderstorms topping 50,000 feet when that plane vanished. we're live from the region coming up. ♪

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it's now 4:41 in the morning in indonesia. still dark. the sun comes up in about 40 minutes from now. ships continue to scour the waters for any signs of airasia airliner the plane that vanished with 162 people on board. search planes are expected to begin flying again in less than two hours. airasia flight 8501 lost contact with air traffic control shortly after the pilot requested a new flight path to try to avoid thunderstorms. meanwhile hundreds of relatives have gathered at airports in indonesia and at it's destination, singapore waiting for any word about their loved ones. >> reporter: good morning from here. yes, the search resumes very shortly. i'm not sure if you can hear in the background. we have the call to freyr the

local mosque so that means we're getting close to daylight. ships and airplanes from several countries have joined in the search just as they did in the missi missi missing malaysian flight. families are gathering in surabaya and indonesia. airasia set up special counselling centers for them. but the problem is they have no information. it's really frustrating. i've spoken to a few people involved in this operation. it's very frustrating that nobody really knows what happened. after the last contact, there was nothing else. no sign of transponders or any other locating devices on this plane like the flight in march. >> terry, thank you for the very latest. we'll have much more as this story develops and perhaps there

are chances that this plane will be found sooner because if it did go down it went down in water in the java sea that's much shallower than the previous malaysia flight so that's still to come. daylight coming bin 40 minutes from now. there are many factors to consider in the mysterious disappearance of airasia flight 8501 especially so early in the search and investigation. do you believe lieutenant general that turbulence brought the plane down? >> i'm hypothesizing because we don't know. but clearly a very severe weather. if i had seen that weather picture before i took off or was about to launch forces because i used to train down in the singapore area when i was a wing commander in the philippines. i would have probably designated another route. that's a very severe picture that our viewers are looking at

right now when you see all that red and orange and so it has every indication of a catastrophic event of severe turbulence. but we don't know. that's what we're trying to find out. until we find the aircraft or the debris, we'll not know those facts. but certainly is in that indication. >> okay. weather will not be the only area of investigative focus. investigators have to look at all options. so that would include the pi lot's actions and whether these contributed to the accident. all mechanical issues with the air frame and engines and although it's initially presumed this is an accident as a matter of routine, investigators are going to have to consider whether sabotage by one person or a group is involved. would you rule out the latter. >> i never rule out terrorism. in this particular case because of the way it was set up versus mh-370, i really believe that this was a catastrophic event

caused by weather, severe turbulence in that particular realm not a terrorist event or a bomb. >> in the wake of malaysia airline mh-370's disappearance investigators had to determine already any other criminal activity might be involved. so as the search-and-rescue continues in just about 40 minutes from now as daybreak in the area is upon the family members who are desperately awaiting word and hoping for a miracle that their loved ones are still alive what are investigators doing behind-the-scenes to determine that this was no accident? >> well, they impounded all the flight records of the aircraft and maintenance, et cetera. that's a precursor right away to an accident investigation board. they got already a search-and-rescue operation going on both land and sea. then when they, if they do find debris, or the wreckage then they go into what we call a

salvage operation. first trying to make sure that they can get anybody that is alive get them out. then they switch to the salvage operation. so all these actions are ongoing right now. the indonesian government because it was in their airspace and under their control they will be the responsible party. >> it's interesting in an earlier interview one of our guests mentioned that the airbus is equipped to float on the surface of the water. so let's say hypothetically speaking the pilot tried to go up to a higher elevation, turbulence somehow rattled the airplane and sent it down, if it was able to safely land on the sea level and there are passengers alive how long do they have, do we know with this aircraft to remain floating until rescue teams can find them? >> well, if you hypothesize they

they got quite a bit of time in that area because the area is not cold, it's probably 80 degrees. and in the area. the real concern to me on that would be is because i don't think in a violent thunderstorm that you're going to able to come out -- but you could, i'm not saying you couldn't -- but normally you would be in a rather uncontrollable position so it would be very difficult to land like the a 320 did on the hudson river. the real concern is the violence of those thunderstorms and that line of thunderstorms, updrafts and down drafts, this type thing. we had a very similar experience with the air france airplane out of brazil about four years ago. you remember flying into paris, and the problems it encountered. it was an a-330, which is a much bigger airplane but a very similar flight control system.

>> all right. thank you very much. thank you. the search for the airasia bus expected to resume twin hour or so as it will be daylight at about 5:37 local time there in indonesia. it will be a massive operation in the java sea. coming up we'll take a look at some of the hi-tech under water equipment that might help find any possible wreckage and lead eventually to some answers. ♪ (holiday music is playing) hey!

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i was thinking about htaking this speed test from comcast business. oh yeah? if they can't give us faster internet or save us money, they'll give us 150 bucks. sounds like a win win. guys! faster internet? i have never been on the internet and i am doing pretty well. does he even work here? don't listen to the naysayer. take the comcast business speed test. get faster speeds or more savings, or we'll give you $150. comcast business. built for business. >> planes and helicopters will resume the search for airasia flight at day break in 40 minutes. but the recovery of the missing airliner could require more equipment. especially if the plane new is resting at the bottom of the java sea. authorities will need to bring in high-tech equipment to locate

the fuselage, the flight data and cockpit recorders. ations of this time, time is of the essence. >> joining us by telephone is vice president of the american underwater search and survey. john, what is the search like? what are the challenges? what will they be doing? >> good evening. the challenges will be, first, to locate floating debris which there is likely to be a significant amount. thankfully, the waters are shallow. also, it is much closer to land mass than some of the accidents where they have had difficulty locating wreckage. once they do find floating debris, they will use a process that backtracks where the debris originated from given the time of 9 disappearance plane and the time they locate the debris they can backtrack the debris. >> the water here we are told is

150' dope, comparable to where flight 800 went down in july of 1996 a few miles off of long island. we saw and witnesses and reported and were there a mapped recovery effort of the wreckage of the boeing 747 at the bottom of the atlantic in 115'. will we see a similar operation this time? i remember the navy divers and the police divers and the f.b.i. divers, all going through the wreckage and of aring the bodies. >> actually, in the 15 years since the twa accident there has been major leaps in advances. they will likely be using a special vehicle that is unmanned untethered underwater drone. usually in conventional work in the past, in the 80's and 90's one ship would tow one so far sensor. in this case one ship can deploy

ten of the underwater drones and they can all go to different areas. with the machine you can cover much more sea bed per unit time than conventional systems. >> it is fought lick the missing malaysian plane that went way off, perhaps, in the india ocean in deep, deep water or air france flight 447 that crashed in 2009 off the south american are you confident and optimistic wreckage will eventually be found and they will recover the black boxes? >> i do believe so. because of the lack of deep abyss areas and the fact that it is shallow, it will be a much more rapid location of the debris and the recovery of the instruments that investigators need. it will take less time. >> did they have this quip in the who has this equipment? how do they get it there? >> this is an american piece of

equipment and it is probably true this could be several hundred away the world that would flown around. >> you feel in a matter of time, it will be daylight soon, potentially wreckage could be pound and they could use the sophisticated equipment to find the answer to what happened? >> that is correct. that that is the answer here, we need to know what happened so it will not happen again. >> a lot of questions on the weather and thunderstorms and poe step between the aircraft systems and pilots all part of the investigation and what we will see in the future. thank you john perry fish. >> fox news will continue with our coverage of this throughout the rest of the day. coming up next is "media buzz." thank you for being with us. >> we will see you at 7:00 eastern for the fox report with continuing coverage and much, much more of the search for airasia as the search-and-rescue

operations resume in under an hour. hopefully, more developments as they happen tonight at 7:00.

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our commitment to current and former military members and their families is without equal. start investing with as little as fifty dollars. >> this is a fox news alert, airasia from indonesia to singapore is missing. the families of the 162 passengers on board are waiting for any word of what has happened to loved ones. amazing this has happened. again. now the latest on the efforts. david? yes, airasia chief executive tony fernandez is holding a news conference in indonesia, flying there immediately after the plane went miss saying at the news conference the pilot did radio in they were facing severe weather. he also said that the pilot had 20,000 hours flying experience, 6,000 with airasia. he did not have any news on the whereabouts of the plane.