>> memy ple >> my prediction is 11 people on stage. we have to run. but we will be on the radio in a few. >> so, the republican candidates gear up for round two as the campaign shifts into high gear. hello, everybody. >> we have live pictures from the ronald reagan library where another battle could be shaking up between the top ranking outsiders and those referred to as establishment candidates as a recent poll is showing donald trump ahead at the pack and when republican voters were asked

which candidate had the best shot at winning the white house trump increased the lead to 36%. dr. ben carson is at 18%, bush at 15%, and rubio is 5%. but a lot of numbers could change after tonight where donald trump is the candidate at the center of the stage after a speech on board the uss iowa. >> we will make our military so big, so strong, and so great -- [applause] >> and it will be so powerful that i don't think we will have ever to use it. no body is going to mess with us. >> let's bring in brad woodhouse, president of the correct the record. and ed rodgers, republican opinion write for the washington

post and former deputy assistance to george h bush. brad, donald trump is on top of the polls, is this his debate to lose? >> i think the expect achations higher than the other candidates. this could be scott walker's last event after being down 2% in the national polls. and 11 people on stage, trump doesn't have to say a lot and he can filibuster and i think you will see him do that >> what about the speech on board the uss iowa? did donald trump deliver? >> he delivered more of the same which is working for him. he didn't give a policy announcement of any type. it was built as a serious policy

address but it wasn't. republicans are going to nomiinate a good conservative republican and people will have to critique him and see if he is a legit conservative. i think the narrative and where the media wants to go is about trump and carly fiorina. next they want to right something about carson emerging and everybody's appetite for bush to stumble. not a lot of time for anybody to have a breakout moment. >> sticking with you, ed, for the moment, if republicans are looking for the conservative leader who you say will eventually emerge from this process, does donald trump fit that bill?

>> he does not. he hasn't in any way shape or fashion been a good republican. whether he had an epiphany and if he is really a conservative remains to be seen and proven by him. he is going to have to get around it to. republicans will nominate a good conservative and all of the candidates have time. but no, he hasn't been a good conservative republican. >> brad, when you look at the latest new york city times cbs news poll it is interesting. 36% of republicans think that donald trump has the best chance of winning the 2016 -- sorry, 39% think donald trump has the best chance of winning the general election. >> well, that is right. i think that tells you a lot about where the republican primary is going. i agree with ed.

11 people in the race, not a huge threshold event. but the thing to look for is it seems the republicans are willing to lose the general election to win the primary. since the last election we heard anchor baby, get rid of birth right citizenship, end support for women's health care -- all of the things romney adopted that made him unvotable. they are only appearing to the base of the republican party and that is dangerous going into the next year. >> and ed, as you point out, donald trump has supported democratic politicians in the past and esspoused liberal part. >> i think trump tapped into anti-washington sentiment that is real. i am not sure trump is real.

i am not sure he is the authentic vessel to capture that sentime sentime sentiment. this is going to be a change election. that is bad for hillary clinton. that is bad for the democrats. this is an anti-incumbent election. the democrats are the incumbent party in the white house. trump is part of that anti-incumbent sentiment change they want. it is going to be a change election and that is bad for the democrats not the republicans >> here is trump's speech on board the uss iowa for those who didn't get to hear it: >> every other country we do business with is smarter, more cunning and sharper than our leaders. i love free trade, the concept is great, but you need smart people. i have the smartest people lined up.

i have the best business leaders and they all want to do. they are wealthy because they make good deals. like me. it is a talent. you can't be a politician. >> he has the best people lined up. brad, ed, either one get a call from donald trump? >> i want him to be on those stage. he should call brad he is a good democrat. >> you can have donald trump first of all. but i agree with the concept. who is going to step up tonight and say who are these people? tell us who they are. who would be running your administration? your treasury department? handling these issues like trade? and the question tonight is does anybody have the gumption to travel donald trump? they didn't in the last debate. it was weak from people like rand paul. i think the expectations are

high tonight and donald trump is in good shape. >> he is in good shape but i don't think anybody should take the bait and try to out trump trump in any way. i think, again, tonight is about being credible and serious. appealing to the people that are leaning your way and sort of letting trump handle trump. i think the person with the bes opportunity is carly fiorina. >> yeah. >> there is a big appetite for her to have an exchange with trump. i will tune in >> >> guessing he is not one of the business leaders he has lined up. >> probably not. >> thank you both. >> thank you. >> we want to hear from you. which candidate do you think will have a breakout performance at the debate? our live shot is up and running. go to foxnews.com/happeningnow and get in on the conversation. the white house is getting

ready to lift some sanctions on iran starting tomorrow despite bipartisan opposition congress has yet to send any measure rejecting the iran delta the president's desk and time is running out. mike emanuel is live. >> reporter: republicans are not giving up the fight on president obama's nuclear agreement with iran recognizing the deal would last beyond this president and with the belief the deal is unpopular with a large portion of the american people. yet the government runs out of money at the end of the month and this morning the senate's top democrat is accusing the gop of wasting time. >> we have seen republicans manufacture crisis before. this one is embarrassing. the government is running out of money in a few days and we have two scores of republicans in the house who say they will vote for nothing unless it defends

planned parenthood. >> reporter: that is conservatives looking to defund planned parenthood and will threaten to defund the government. republicans and democrats continue discussing the iran deal after the senate failed to get 60 votes on a measure disapproving the nuclear agreement. next step is a vote on an amendment that would prevent president obama from lifting to sanction until iran recognizes israel's right to exist and two release the u.s. citizens being held in iran. the senate majority leader says this deal last beyond this president and saying it wilive d president obama's time in office. >> this is an issue with a very long shelf life. it will be before the american people for the next year and a half. and certainly be a factor in their determination of who they want to lead our country as president in the next election.

>> so expect debate from the republicans who would like to be the next commander and chief. a vote in the senate tomorrow to see if they can send some sort of symbolic measure to the iran deal and put all democrats on the record for or against the nuclear agreement. >> thank you. the senate armed service committee is hearing from general loyd austin as it is claims analyst manipulated information about being ready in the iraqi state. general austin is expected to get questioned about that as we get word france is preparing strikes against isis this week. we are monitoring the hearing and general austin's testimony and we will bring you all of the

breaking news that emerges. you can see the dow is trading higher as investors keep a close eye on a two-day federal reserve meeting to decide if interest rates will rise for the first time in years. we will look at the collapse of lee man brothers coming up and if the united states economy and banking system is better prepared to take a shock like that to the system. a doctor charged in the biggest insurance fraud scam in california history was link today a high profile murder case. what happened there and how it could impact his case now. and deadly flash flooding in utah and the latest on the search to find those missing. and live at the reagan presidential library, what will it take to score points at the debate tonight? why our next guest says donald trump has to prove he can take a hit. >> we are doing something special. this is a movement.

we are going to make our county great again believe me. >> i don't think my strategy is going to change. it is to tell the truth and talk about my vision for america.

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>> this is the scene where fireworks could be breaking and reagan said the house may not speak ill of any republicans. we will see if that happens. how do you win the debate? brett o'donnel is here who is a former campaign coach and has been advising lindsey graham as of late but we want to speak to him because of his resume.

>> i am curious what debate coaches are doing now for the candidates. if you were coaching candidates for tonight, are you drilling them? going through flash cards? letting them relax? what is the strategy? >> i think for today you want them focused but not too tight. i don't think there is much heavy drilling today. it is basically a day where you be refocus them and get them prepared on their message. talk through your strategy. like a football team would go through a walk through on the day of the game, you would do that and make sure they have something on the schedule to get them warmed up and relaxed. >> what would something like that be? >> it is different for different folks. when i coached john mccain he loved doing town hall meetings

the day of the debate. senator mccain was the master of the town hall and that helped him get focused. for others it might be taking a nap, it could be playing tennis. i know john kerry went and had a manicure and pedicure before his event when he ran. >> carly fiorina likes to play solitaire. she talked about that. we will see who is the most centered when they step to the stage. who do you think has the most to lose tonight, brett? >> i think several candidates have campaigns going in reverse who have a lot to loose. scott walker, chris christie, they need moments. but it is interesting to see how trump handles ben carson. t he attacked him and dit didn't o

over well. carson is not aggressive. he is passive and laid back and i am not sure he presents an opening for trump to go after him. it will be interesting to see how that exchange goes. in the under car debate, i think lindsey graham has a lot to gain from foreign policy experience. i look for him to shine in that debate as well. >> and we might expect that, brett. let me ask you about how you win a debate. you know? as we got past the first debate, many suggested that mark rubio was the winning. but mark rubio isn't the person most are talking about. what defines a win in a debate? >> i think there are two things that define a win in a debate. first, the public judges the winners and losers on who is the most aggressive in the debate.

who can get their message out, make sure it is communicated clearly and who has a moment of competitive advantage on stage. it was -- i believe the debate will feature more back-to-back arguments can donald trump and carly fiorina or maybe chris christie and rand paul trying to get into it with donald trump. whoever wins those usually is judged to do better in the debate. so you know again mark rubio did have a great debate last time but while he did a great job of pushing his message he needs to get into the fray with the other candidates because debates are a place where audiences have to have a chance to make head-to-head comparisons between the candidates and those come through the exchanges they have with each other.

>> interesting. we should note this is number two of 12 debates. there is a lot of ahead. it is a long debate of two hours and 45 minutes. indurance is something candidates will have to manage. i only have 30 seconds here. what is one mistake candidates can't make that is a deal breaker? >> what is the one thing when you advise candidates don't do this. >> you can't say something factually incorrect. that is the place where trump is the most vulnerable. he played fast and lost with facts and that can get him into trouble especially tonight with foreign policy. >> we ask the question if facts matter anymore and apparently they do. thank you for your expertise. which candidate do you think will have the breakout performance at the debate?

our live chat is up and running so log in and vote. and join us for the discussion after the debate. firefighters battling flames in california. will mother nature help the crews get an upper hand on the killer fires? killer fires? this bale of hay cannot be controlled. when a wildfire raged through elkhorn ranch, the sudden loss of pasture became a serious problem for a family business. faced with horses that needed feeding and a texas drought that sent hay prices soaring, the owners had to act fast. thankfully, mary miller banks with chase for business. and with greater financial clarity and a relationship built for the unexpected, she could control her cash flow, and keep the ranch running. chase for business. so you can own it.

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took a lot of juggling to keep it all together. what's possible when you have high-speed internet at home? the library never closes. it makes it so much better to do homework when you're at home. internet essentials from comcast. helping to bridge the digital divide. right now firefighters are gaining ground on a fire that destroyed homes and killed one person. firefighters say the valley fire that tore through this community is now 30% contained. that is an improvement. this as the sacramento fire department releases new video of firefighters working to save a house early sunday morning. in the mean time, cal fire

officials say the butte fire that burned more than 70,000 acres and now 40% contained and they are hoping rain later today helps them make more progress. maria is live and we talk todeda cal fire official and they said rain can bring wind which is challenging for us. what does the weather pattern look like? >> i think the worst would be low humidity, dry and strong gusty winds. but his concern is with some storms we could get winds that could spread the fires. we don't want that. and lightning is certainly dangerous out here across parts of the western u.s. where we have drought condition and dry, tinder conditions out here across many states. the butte fire is expecting cooler temperatures and that is welcome news. the winds shouldn't be too much

of an issue. eventually the drier air starts to settle in in parts of california. other areas of concern include parts of the pacific northwest and parts of utah and nevada. across most of the areas we have an increase in humidity and chance of rain fall so that is welcome news. we have a batch of rain fall moving in through parts of northern california, great news there, and across parts of nevada. just a couple inches could produce dangerous flash flooding out here. the dry is ground, run off, and doesn't absorb the rain fall. that could be another problem not related to wild fire but another danger for the people here. additional rain fall in northern california, parts of the rockies and mostly the northern half of the west over the next few days. as we go into the weekend and early next week, look at the forecast in parts of california.

we are talking not only dry conditions but also very high temperatures. upper 90s out here on sunday and into monday so that is not welcome news and that is going to be the big story across parts of the southwestern united states. in northern parts of the country we expect the cooler temperatures to continue. look at saturday, sunday, and early next week, the heat is back across parts of the southwest, jenna. >> thank you, maria. >> thanks. a frantic search for four people missing after flash floods killed at least 16 people in utah. cars swept away a lining to ditches and debris as the cleanup gets along the way. four visitors making their way through zion national park are still missing. william is following this live from our west coast bureau. >> imagine throwing a bucket of

water on the pavement, it doesn't soak in. that is what this is like. heavy rain on rock and hard packed soil creating the deadliest water event in history and rivers of mud that didn't exist hours before. >> we never expected to see what was coming. >> i have seen something like it but nothing on this scale. way more water than we have ever seen. >> let's start with hilldale, utah. a family drove down the street to watch the water when a debris dam upstring gave way, they got back in their vehicles but as you can see it is too late. >> it lifted the whole thing he said. 10-15 feet instantly and they were parked. the two vehicles were parked back on the road at a safe distance. some of the children you can see getting out and looking at the

flood as it is passing down. >> 16 victims, 12 dead, one missing, three fatalities were sister, two were married to the same man, the national guard arrived yesterday to help clean up. about 20 miles north of that, a group of hikers from california-nevada, men and women in their 40s and 50s, got stranded in the zion national park after repelling and getting caught in a narrow canyon. >> you will find people further down the stream with flash flood. one was found within the canyon that you could see at the end and two further down. >> the stagnant water turns into flowing water and that changes things dramatically. >> four died, three still missing. crews continue to search today, jon, but can't get into canyon because of the risk of maybe

more rain. >> frightening how fast the floods develop. >> with the white house and lawmakers on capitol hill going down to the wire on the budget showdown why planned parenthood is at the center of the fight. and hungry closing the key way migra migrants are getting in but how they are a finding a new route to hopefully a better life in europe. europe. europe. or make a backyard pizza oven? oh yeah. i can almost taste it now. tastes like victory. and pepperoni...

a fox news alert.

president obama is making remarks on the budget while he meets with business leaders in our nation's capitol. he is also going after republicans over all of this. doug mcelway is live at the white house with the latest for us. doug? >> reporter: that is right. the president is speaking at the business round table and we are beginning to get a glimpse of another potential looming budget battle on capitol hill. the president is expected to warn the republicans whatever budget they come up with for next year must be bipartisan. at issue, the series of planned parenthood videos that have drawn the discuss of conservative republicans. they want to strip planned parenthood for the funding and attach that to a resolution to fund the budget next year. democrats are signaling if the republicans do that they are playing with fire. >> it has dragged on too long.

we have been suggesting the negotiations take place for months now. back in 2013, the last time the republicans shutdown the government, we had to go through two and a half weeks of a shutdown before republicans engaged in serious negotiations with democrats. the republican leadership in both houses is in fear of shutdown because they take the blame for the past shutdowns. the majority leader told politppoli politico this is a fight that cannot be run. he called it an exercise in futility. but senators, including cruz and rand paul, are opposed to any continuing resolution that does not defund planned parenthood. clear politics was told

mcconnell was gutless and he said we have a heck of a chance to get it done. anything that wants to be done and vetoed by president obama and that would lead to an all-government shutdown and the republicans being blamed for it. >> keep us updated. >> a fox news alert on the refuge crisis in europe. thousands of people are trying. this is forcing thousands of others here in europe to go through croatia and we have a look at serbia her here. this is near the serbian border with the latest. >> this is an important development after the last two hours.

it is at the main border crossing between hungary and serbia we have been telling you about. that has been closed and we have noticed a restless crowd with young men and women wanting to get into hungary. they through rocks, bottles, pressed against the fence, some reports they broke down one fence, it is a hungarian security forces in huge forces. helicopters, armored cars, using cany canyons and pepper spray to keep the crowd back. it is a messy scene and a crack down by hungary against the floods of immigrants they have been getting the last couple weeks. they are saying no more, they are into a zero tolerance mode. take a look at what we saw as they approached three migrants today near the border.

>> you are looking at an example of zero tolerance by hungarian officials. these three migrants came from serbia to hungary and are now described as illegal aliens and are being held to possibly be taken away by the police. those were not the only people detained by the hungarian authority. an extended family, maybe as many as 14 years old, men and women, a lot of small children came from afghanistan and tried to get in. we talked to the father of many of them and he said we have survived the taliban, isis, and look at us now. they are being detained by the hungarian authorities and they could chase jail time and more likely they would be deported from the scene. an example of the zero tolerance policy in hungary. what is happening is this is

shifting the problem from this border to the next border. we have seen streams of migrants on the other side of the fence inside serbia heading toward croatia and there are buses of refuges coming from the serbia border up to croatia and that is the next country over. that could be a gateway to austria. they are saying they would have to be registered and couldn't use their country as a pathway to get to the north. it is an example of the confusion and uncertainty on the ground. we are seeing it turning violent. there are reports from the border crossing we are getting the strong images of injuries among the refuges. even of a birth of a pregnant women giving birth in the middle of the chaos. a lot of kids and old people mixed in with younger men who

are actually trying to take matters into their own hands. a dangerous situation, not yet under control. >> speaking of strong images, greg has amazing photos and additional photos on his tweeter feed. it is an amazing story and what is next is it big question. >> many of the reuges fleeing the chaos in their homeland and there is new developments in syria. what u.s. officials spotted in brand new satellite images. and a doctor charges in a multi-million insurance scam was link tod linked to to a high profile murder case years ago. and prosecutors say the same man killed these two college students. the case against a suspected serial killer. serial killer. from constipation or irregularity? trust dulcolax® for dependable relief. try free at dulcolaxoffers.com dulcolax® tablets are comfort coated for gentle, overnight relief.

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right now, recent developments in the middle east. u.s. officials telling fox news they spotted troubling images on satellite intel. specifically two russian helicopters like this at the assad international airport. there is no sign the helicopters have been taking their first flight. intel officials believe they could be air born as soon as they are prepped for take off. we will team keep an eye on the developments. new information on the case that is being called the largest insurance scams in california history. you might remember the doctor at the center of it from another high profile legal case a few years back. he was the ex-boyfriend of this woman, an inspiring actress who

was strangled five days after her father broke off business ties with the doctor. the doctor's office manager, kelly sue park, was acquitted of the murder even after it was said six figure payments were made to park and her family right before juliana redding was killed. they spend billing $150 billion to insurance companies often for surgeries that were not performed. heather hanson is here and richard paul. the doctors team, heather, is saying look, you know, they tried to tie him to the murder of juliana redding, prosecutors didn't get it done, this is short of a revenge case. how do the prosecutors answer that? >> they can answer it so thoroughly because this grand

jury went through 102 witnesses, more than a hundred felony counts, this insurance scam is huge. it brings about a whole number of people who testified about the grand jury. he was asking a physician assistant, not going to medical school, perform surgeries he build for. he will face almost as much time as he would have if he had been indicted in the murder case. >> this is a case that could put them in prison for life. if you don't get a conviction on a murder case, richard, this is jus about as good as you can get. >> look, i certainly think the investigation into the doctor's personal assistant murder was a catalyst in the doctor's business. but according to the consumer affairs board, the physician assistance board, a pa or physician assistant, can operate without the super vision of a doctor in some surgeries.

i expect the doctor's defense attorneys will bring that up. >> some of these people were appare apparently scarred and had to go back to further surgeries, heather, to repair the damage done by this physician's assistant. >> and on top of that the doctor cannot bill for surgeries he is not present for. there are a number of things. this doctor and his office were referring patient do is certain attorneys and certain attorneys were referring him to the doctor. they were making up findings on mri in order to perform surgeries. there was a host of problems at the doctor's office and this didn't stem solely from that investigation. this is stemming from $150 million worth of fraudulent billing. >> kelly sue park, who was charged with murder in the other case, she is being held on $18.5 million bail. have you heard of that kind of a number in a fraud case? >> that is excessively high.

bail is set to make sure you will return to court. and that you are not a flight risk, or a danger to yourself or society. in order to get a bail that high, which basically amounts to basically keeping you in jail as if you were a murder emurderer, prosecution has to say she is a flight risk. i think it is excessive and should be appealed >> let's turn to another case. a murder suspect is facing charges in another killing after a grand jury indicted jesse matthew in the death of morgan harington. that is another case we covered here. she was a virginia tech student who disappeared during a concert in charlottesville in 2009 and rater found dead. he is charged with her murder and abduction and charge would the death of hannah graham and a

few months back he was convicted of sexual assaulting and attempting to kill another woman in fairfax, virginia. hannah graham disappeared about a year ago and her body found a short stimulattime later. prosecutors have said they will not seek the death penalty in the hannah graham case. might they try for the death penalty in the murder of morgan harrison? >> it doesn't look like they will. but you have to look at what is going to happen with this guy. he has taken the alfred plea which is like a conviction and he is going to have life in prison, hopefully without parole, and avoid the cost and trauma to the families of having to go through different trials. >> i know the families of morgan herrington said they hope he takes a plea deal.

we will keep the viewers updated on what happens there. richard, heather, thank you both. >> we will we right back.

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a six minutes away from "outnumbered" at the top of the hour. what do you have? >> republican presidential candidates are ready for round two. what does each candidate need to do to stand out? who has the most to lose? will everybody combining gang up on the donald? >> and a stunning high school football play is getting attention and many are asking about the two-game suspension and what message it sends. and los angeles is still in america, right? why in the pitch for the 2024 olympics does the city call

itself the northern capital of latin america? >> holiday for some folks. it is hot holiday for marijuana users in colorado. just today, they are exempt from paying taxes after legislatures under estimated how much they would collect in sales tax for the year. we are live in denver to explain all of this. >> reporter: folks who come to places like medicine man get what amounts to a 10% discount which is no change when you considered the average cost of mid grade marijuana is $200 for on ounce. they are ready for the surge in customers and increased the inventory.

>> they can have a 10% discount on what they are purchasing. regular customers have a good time to stock up or get to their limit. tourist will be just be lucky to be here on the tax holiday. >> i make a purchase once every couple months. i am not a big spender. so every little bit helps. >> reporter: so why is this happening? in the first fiscal year, legal recreational marijuana sales, the state took in more overall projected tax revenue and theed the bill of rights a portion of any taxes must be refunded and that new tax is pot. instead of sending checks, they opted to give a tax holiday on the product. this is the only year the consumers will get this awesome deal. the state must ask voters what to do with the money going forward so the money will be on

the november ballot. there is a line of people next to me we are just not showing them because not everyone wants people to know they are here purchasing what is legal in colorado. >> understood. we will be right back.

>> why back in an hour. "outnumbered" starts now. >> melissa francis is here, and #oneluckyguy, tony sayegh is here. we have a veteran of campaigns and many i worked on him with and maybe we can share the stories for money. >> you have an interesting