>> why back in an hour. "outnumbered" starts now. >> melissa francis is here, and #oneluckyguy, tony sayegh is here. we have a veteran of campaigns and many i worked on him with and maybe we can share the stories for money. >> you have an interesting

nickname andrea gave you. >> we have been friends for a decade. >> a long time. >> we will give the best friend name on overtime. >> i love that. >> we are just hours from round two and the republican debates as 11 candidates take the prime time stage at the ronald reagan presidential library. the senator on the kelly file: >> i think he is running as a conservative. but the tea party movement was very wary of fake republicans. republicans who said they were conservatives but for big government programs. donald trump was for president obama's stimulus plan. no conservative in america was for it. he was for president obama's

obamacare. no conservative in america was for that either. >> that is not the only match up. there is another big one. trump sharing the big stage with carly fiorina for the very first time. and the first time since he appeared to attack her looks and her business skills in that "rolling stone" interview. carly fiorina released a video saying she is proud of ever wrinkle. what can we expect tonight? lots of fireworks and i think they will all try to gang up on trump. much different than the last debate. >> the problem is up until this point no one has been able to land an effective successful attack on donald trump. rand paul makes a good point, which is if you dissect his record and look at his public statement, this is someone who can not make the case he is not constitutional conservative which we have been led to

believe support from the left wing. trump rebranded the debate. it isn't about conservative behavior or greatness or whatever. it is about winning. those messages are resonating. it has been about personality up until now. he is the biggest personality on the stage. i am not sure anyone tonight will land the successful vote to begin to dissect the idea. >> it is a different dynamic. the last debate you could sense the candidates were nervous to go after him because they didn't want his fire. they have been taking shots at him. i think they will go after him. tony makes a good point. this isn't about conservatism. >> he will be questioned on his conservatism. i had to look up if he supported

the keystone pipeline because i could not assume that. he is a yes, on the keystone pipeline for those interested. ben carson is the one to watch. i don't see him launching an attack on ben carson but people liked what they saw. for the first time it was seeing him and he has been climbing every since. he might get more time but he will have to prove he is presidential because that is one area where he doesn't have the political background. does he have the chops to be president? i don't see him attacking trump but standing up with a presence he hasn't had in the past. >> we look at past candidates. that is why i am not buying the faux trump thing. romney wasn't a conservative and neither was mccain. this is bigger than just atalks from a libertarian and by the way a libertarian like rand

paul. >> and here is what i have been watching. i have been watching donald trump with the crowds up to 20,000 just this week alone. you look at the faces of the people in the crowd and they look like everybody. everybody. it is not just what kind of viewpoint he might have. sandra is saying i am not sure where he fell on this. this is what he has been selling and that is he is a winner. that cuts across every political column whether you are democrat or conservative. if you have a w, a v-for victory, that works for him. >> i think people are misinterpreting what he had. you lus n to what he had on bill o'reilly's show and he was talking about the fact he wants to lower taxes on the middle class and corporations. he said the hedge fund guys have to pay more.

bill followed up and said what about me? i am a guy who make as lot of money? am i going to pay more? and he said no, you will pay less because there is a flatter system that is not flat. it is tiered so your rate is higher but you will end up paying less. people are not listening to the details because they get lost. if you can do math and bill made it clear saying what about me? and bill would pay less and bill is a rich guy out there. >> very populus message that a lot of people in both parties don't have the guts to deliver. >> it is a simple message but everybody is waiting for the simple details. lower corporate taxes. >> be sure to tune into the best part of tonight. the post-debate analysis starting at 11 eastern with bill o'reilly and i will join bill and then it is megyn kelly at

midnight and sean hannity at 1:00 a.m. we are looking forward to that. more and more republicans are seeing donald trump as their man. that is according to a new poll that finds 39% of caucus voters as viewing the donald as their best shot at winning the candidate. he spoke on the us s battleship last night in los angeles. >> the silent majority is back: i don't think we can call it a silent majority. people are not silent. we are doing something special. this is a movement. we are going to make our country great governor.

we will make our country great again. >> can anything sink donald trump at this point? >> absolutely. there is a lot of time before the votes are cast. but i have conversations with senior republicans who supported establishment republicans who are now saying this guy could win the primary and he might have a chance at winning a general election. >> why won't the establishment of the rnc get behind trump? he is the frontrunner? he is soaking up the oxygen in the room, and if he becomes too much of a villain and they don't focus on hillary clinton and the democrats, the republican party looks tone deaf. the competition is across the aisle. >> they would not get behind a particular candidate this early in the stage. their job is to referee the process.

i hear what you are saying and not everybody is following trump's strategy. that being said, one of the words we talk about today, p populist and winner. this is going outside of the traditional voter. you can finally see him winning and what could sink him is the conclusion among the establishment, the big groups, and the independent expenditures saying jeb bush may not win or scott walker -- >> enthuiasm doesn't translate to votes. democratic voters are excited about hillary clinton as their nominee than republicans with trump. 35% of republicans say they would support trump with exciteme

excitement. >> the polls make my head spin. when you look at the number of peop people. if you drill down on it, the republicans are finally having somebody who is dynamic, who is exciting, who is getting tv time and inspiring people, it feels like their goal is to stop him. they are afraid of him. >> or make him seem like everybody else. we are talking about if you can sink him, he is on a battleship. the symbolism isn't lost. >> you said our guys. their guys have been loosing. the establishment hasn't been able to win. that is the word you pointed out people want to see. they are sick and tired of talking points. they feel the country is slipping away. they want someone who is going

to fight to save it without lobbyist money and a teleprompter. this is why i believe carly fiorina is resonating. if she can handle that shareholder meeting at hp, she can handle a gop debate and the white house. >> interesting point. i had the chance to talk to a former bill clinton speech writer this morning who pointed out we are tired of watching the speeches that have been talked about. >> and ben carson gained from 1% to 23%. it is precisely what we are talking about. it is the anti-political class movement. >> all right. things are heating up here. lawmakers have just one more day to try to block the obama administration's controversial iran agreement. several votes on capitol hill have failed but we are learning of the last ditch effort to derail the deal. and a new poll showing, another poll melissa, showing once again

ground is moving to bernie sanders and just how much hillary clinton's lead has dropped and what clinton is doing to try regain the momentum. join us for "outnumbered" overtime by loging on to foxnews.com/overtime. tweet us questions, comments and tells what topic you want to hear more about.

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customers feel like friends, neighbors and it makes it a little bit more special. together, we're building a better california. let's go to the live pictures. this is the situation. you know the european union said it would share 120,000 refuges. hungary is closing its border. what happened there, we wanted to bring it to you live. tier gas and water sprays they have been using on the families. there are reports that one mom and a baby caught in all of this. the mom fainted. just unbelievable situation unfolding there. hungary having to slow the tide of people coming through europe to try to get away from what is happening in places like syria,

iraq and afghanistan. and again, 120,000 refuges looking, so far that number could balloon, looking for a place of refuge in europe. we are keeping an eye on this. serbia's minister went to the border and said come back to the nearest town so you can get medical aid and food and water and then you can try again later. they put up fences quickly, hungary did, to keep people out and slow down the tide of people. we will watch this and report as it happens. moving on, just one more day for the people who work for us in washington, the lawmakers, to try to derail the nuclear agreement with iran. senate democrats yesterday blocked a second vote on a resolution rejecting the deal. here is the latest last-ditch move we are learning about. mitch mcconnell is planning a third vote to bar president

obama from lifting the sanctions on iran before releasing four american prisoners and until iran recognizes israel as a state. let me finish! pull to together and block the bill. there is criticism to go around. >> why allow the democrats to filibuster at all? apply to nuclear option. if harry reid applied it so we could get two or three judicial appointments why not do it over the most important treaty of our time? the option expose the democrats and it will not stop the deal, but that is going to be important after obama is gone. >> charles is eloquent. why can't they get their act together in washington?

>> don't blame me. i left washington. very aptly. this identifies the biggest frustration that most republicans have with our leadership which is they just don't fight. even in the case of iran you had a bad deal. our allies in the region oppose it. so does saudi arabia and egypt and jordan and the moderate sunnis and this is creating an arms race. mcconnell and boehner are waiting until the 11th hour to show we are opposed to it. this is going to be a hard deal to stop legislatively. but we could have pointed out the flaws by forcing president obama and the democrats to look more foolish. we look foolish right now. we look late to the game trying to stop this deal when meanwhile

we had to tools that would force others to not look like there good guys. >> this is about the sanctions and a situation everybody agreed on i thought like our four americans in captivity there, like recognizing israel is a state. isn't that something everybody would want? >> president obama got what he wanted. he lost to the iranians and beat the republicans. he wants a field to go through and nothing to be a speed bump. >> let me get this in. i am coming to you on this. now, concerns are being raiseded that iran and north korea might try to share their nuclear technology. >> access of evil. they are allies. we talked about this for months.

this is the beginning, the first domino to fall and trigger a global arms race. krauthammer is right, there is little to be done. tony is right, there are other things republicans could have done to blame. but democrats are to blame for this. republicans are stepping up saying we are going to fight to get the host plages back. if you want to block that you will own this. >> they can stop the run away train. north korea is setting up ballistic missiles saying it is about celebrating their anniversary but it is showing strength and showing they want sanctions lifted on them. the more money we put in the pockets of these people the more they spend on weapons >> senator john cornan is

putting together a plaquer with quotes from democrats who express reservations because many of the pro-deal republicans are coming out about the sanctions and had reservations about the deal. let's highlight them. >> they didn't have to cover they needed from this president to be bold. >> and no encouragement moment for democrats. they always knew they would the votes. we need the people to stand up against this and this became a political vote instead. >> do you think when it comes to hillary clinton they just don't show her the poll numbers in the morning? new numbers out showing a trend that is not looking for good her. is this opening the door wider for vise president joe biden who blasted trump by name? is it time for joe to go all in? the former secretary of state is trying a new tactic. i do this every thursday.

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. . . . ♪ >> pipe down. smitty. [laughter]. welcome back to "outnumbered." hillary clinton losing ground to bernie sanders. a brand new poll find her lead over vermont senator is shrinking from 41 percentage points to 20 points in little over a month. uneasiness towards clinton is creates possible opening for vice president joe biden. he hasn't said yet whether he will run but he is sounding more and more like a candidate. listen how he blasted donald trump over his remarks on immigration. >> i walked out of the house just as trump was talking on the television.

folks, this will not prevail. this will not prevail. the trump and that stuff you're hering on the -- hearing team, this isn't about democrat an republican. its is about a sick message. this message has been tried on america many times before. we always, always, always, always, always, always overcome it. >> another beltway i hate to say it, dune sauer going after trump but they're worried about him with a message resonating so is biden worried about trump. >> i think he is certainly worried hillary and bernie sanders is not dealing with trump the right way. what you hear from joe biden is recognition from democrats right now and that hillary clinton is not doing the job or doing it well. you hear the vote bernie sanders is getting, i don't care how

many emails are hidden or play out. she goes into general very wounded. democrats have to listen to thee coal mine moment and realize if it is not joe biden, if he doesn't have the heart and the will, we all understand why, he went through a major trauma someone else has to step in. hillary's trajectory is not just bad in the states where she is dropping by double digits and bierne is any is going up. likability underwater, trustworthiness and is underwater. you will not win presidency with those numbers. >> brilliant analysis. >> thank you. >> i has to do that without hitting her. that's tricky. you got to show your potential opponent is going down without landing a boy. that is important. you don't want to pick on her. you don't want to seem like the person shooting inside of the tent at this point. because he is not even officially in the race. i think he may be focusing a little bit on trump and others

to get his own message out without being oppositional to hillary. >> is it bernie is not hillary? not that people love bernie but she is not hillary clinton? she is sinking herself without bernie laying a groff. >> does anybody let her know when she wakes up in the morning where she is in the poll? >> doing downward dogs. >> not very well. >> hang on, careful. i make track-and-field references on this show too many, when i was running the mile for the great school of louis state university, i had a coach standing ought quarter mile marker let me know where i was. they are mile splits. you have to know if you have a few seconds in the bank or you have a little room to spare you can slow down and save some for the end. she knows where she is at. you're behind. you're slipping. you have to make up ground here. lack of acknowledgement though. she is lacking she has a problem. she is being laking

acknowledgement of email controversy. not acknowledging to herself. she has a lot to do. >> why i can never beat you at a shoe sale. >> hillary clinton is no sandra smith, i can vouch for that. i wonder if she surround herself, we see in the emails with step ford staff i call it. >> agreed. >> go, uh-huh. they just nod, bill, she's got sid and uma. nod their heads when she says get me my tea. >> how much bernie sanders plans would call each of you and me all of us out there. went through and crunch of the number, $18 trillion. medicare, infrastructure programs, college affordability, free tuition, leave from work for a stubbed toe everything else out there. that is a fortune. $18 trillion is the size of our debt. he would rack that up in then years. no one is taking him seriously

to point that out. she unit either. all i heard was biden bite, everybody was playing. >> not taking him seriously but following him down that socialist rabbit hole. what is hillary clinton talking about? income inequality, same things that sanders is talking about. she realizes there is a problem on the left. you're right, her staff is not serving her well. basically this is fundamentally flawed candidate who has never been somebody that really great at retail campaigning. it is showing in the poll numbers. >> does she see that for herself? that is what sandra is talking about. when does she say okay, i'm at half mile marker? >> or does she listen to the coach at mile marker. >> or she gets beat. or fbi shows up with handcuffs. i don't know which one comes first. >> whoa. >> it could happen. >> it could. meantime, she -- [laughter] on that note, maybe trying to gain back her lead with new efforts to become more relatable.

clinton revealing a series of older pictures on herself on social media. we like to use older pictures. a toddler riding a tricycle in illinois. classroom photo from high school in 1965. family moto with her and bill. posing with daughter chelsea with her baby. opening up about family and other topics. careful there. now, now. series of television interviews, with tonight show with jimmy fallon airing tonight. going more softer and more loveable. why is she losing women. >> i don't think women like phony people. women don't like liars. you don't like it in men. you don't want to like it in the someone being president of the united states. >> i challenge that. do you think women are much more critical of a female candidate than they are of men. >> i heard enough people saying i would like to see a woman president. time for that. women that would volt for her

just because she is woman. they are both easier and harder on her. >> there is polling to substantiate what you said, tony. 51% said they thought her issue was dishonesty. why they were baking away. that is the rhine they gave. >> which is surprising, idealogically, especially since bill clinton, ironically, women on issue cluster aligned much more with democrats. you imagine the first real credible woman to run on the democratic side would galvanize them. she is clearly failing. there is issue for hillary clinton which no one probably wants to say yet, it sounds hyperbolic. is it too late for her to change? >> but women also have excellent memories. we don't forget a thing. hillary clinton -- >> i feel like andrea is talking to someone specifically. >> no, i'm not. general point. we remember that hillary clinton came out and insulted stay-at-home moms. what am i supposed to do, bake cookies.

went after bill's accusers. this picture does not make me want en v.able marriage like the clintons. it is a bunch of baloney. we're bigger than yoga poses and hair color. she talks down to us and assumes we will vote for her because we use the same restroom. i'm sorry we don't like liars. we remember everything that she has done. and -- >> to her defense i don't think it could hurt. >> stops women's rights in a lot of way. >> i don't blame her wanting to attack -- >> we do have better values. >> don't see a picture of her getting shot at in bosnia. wait, that never happened. >> actually we saw her making this argument, this compelling argument to women even before the email scandal heated up. remember very early on in the campaign before the second rollout of it, problems getting women to come to all women events. >> yeah. >> had a couple more in iowa, women organizing for hillary. she did bert there. this has been a long-term

narrative, long term, this season for her anyway. with regard, doesn't have anything to do with the scandal. >> shows how desperate she is bringing out pictures. we haven't seen any of trump's family. >> we haven't seen any of her family with bill. >> old pictures. >> he has kids up on the stage all the time. >> presidential announcement. ivanka. >> melania. she came down -- >> tell you this -- question is, the question is this, is not is this a good strategy. it is, everyone does it. will it work for hillary. >> people believe she does it when she is for women's rights, only for advances rights of one woman. that is herself. >> high school football player is the focus of a police investigation after he is caught on camera hitting an opponent in the head with a helmet? have you seen this? he is suspended for two games. is that enough? could he be learning the on-field violence from the pros.

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♪ >> police launching an investigation after a new jersey high school football player ripped off the helmet of an opponent and smashed him in the head with it. that opposing player suffered a concussion and needed stitches. the incident friday night caught on camera. a referee penalized the defensive lineman but did not eject him from the game. the school however, suspending him for 10 taste, which means he will miss two games. meantime we saw two similar incidents over weekend in the nfl. dolphin's defense tack tell ndamukong suh kicking off a rival's helmet. "pacman" jones taking opposing rookie's helmet and slamming his head against it. nfl taking no disciplinary

action against the players. i take this story very seriously, melissa. this affect as lot of our country's kids. some involved in football. two game suspension for a high school football player, is that enough. >> i don't think it is enough. this is huge problem. i think it is too late for those kids. i think this is something starts very young. i look at my five-year-old playing competitive sports. you shake their hand, good game, win or lose. you have to teach them to fight hard, be a competitor, play hard but to be fair. that sportsmanship is what counts. you shake hand of other team afterwards. you mean it and you're a good sport. if you don't start very young. i mean, i think these kids, i almost, i think it is too late. i don't know that you teach them a lesson. it should have been harder. >> point out that this starts young, tony. shouldn't we hold parents responsible for a child understanding the difference between on play activity and violence versus off-play -- when

you're not playing the game. >> i do think the vast majority of parents involve themselves in youth sports are doing it for the right reason, there is a segment, a, basically trying to relive their own youth through their kids or that sport or so competitive they will go to the point of driving young people basically win at all costs. i will tell you, i was watching myself-year-old's flag football game this weekend. you hit it on the head. team came off losing dejected, the kids, seven, eight, trash-talking. using curse words. doing things you accept that in sports, but really at seven? the thing that kills me the most about this, we talked about weeks ago a rutger's football player basically kicked off the team because photographed in halloween costume that offended people. that was his punishment. he was kicked off the team. violence that can hurt the player and a two-game suspension.

>> nfl is not a lot of great examples being set there. i shouldn't pay entire picture. there are a lot of instances of not good play. >> we talk the nfl with image ding once a week now. at least now it is football season. we were doing it a lot in off-season. if the young boys looking for scruples and more race from that group it is widespread. -- morays. coach of seattle seahawks wanting to tone things down get nicer on field, you can win and not be a monster. you can win and not be a monster. >> why is this, i pointed this out before. why is this different from nfl to nhl. l? they're fights all the time. friends across teams fight all the time. why is nfl much more different? >> i think it is much more violent sport.

nfl is more under pressure focal point for americans more so than hockey. nhl, as you point out, harris, to be less violent. go to melissa and harris, you have two boys. four boys. when if you see something like this in your school, kid hit another kid in geometry, and they need 14 stitches, that to me is not football. it is assault and battery. >> it is without question. talk about them coming off the field, you have to step out there then when they're young, no, turn around, go back. you apologize right now. and you tell them good game. you have to stop the behavior in its tracks early. not the school's responsibility or nfl's. it is parent. >> parental responsibility for sure. there has to be consequences for bad actions. in nfl all year, adrian peterson and tom brady, domestic violence issue. >> they're unevenly -- >> they have no policy on those issues.

>> four games for dough plate gate and two games for domestic violence. they were all over the road. >> that's true. >> police launched investigation into the incident at new jersey high school. we'll hear more soon. los angeles is looking to host the 2024 games. is it effort to put best face forward? calling it the northern capitol of latin america. why not calling itself the a great city in good ol' u.s. of a. ♪ why do so many people choose aleve? it's the brand more doctors recommend

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>> more "outnumbered" in just a moment. but first to jon scott with what is coming up in the second hour of "happening now." jon? >> hi, andrea. in that next hour president obama speaking on the economy at a business roundtable event just a few minutes ago. called on businesses to press congress on the budget. government runs out of money at the end of the month. we are also keeping a close eye on capitol hill as we await a possible congressional vote on the iran deal. the white house expected to start lifting some sanctions on tehran as early as tomorrow. plus all eyes on tonight's

second republican debate. what the candidates need to say to win voter support. who needs to do what in this critical second debate? full analysis with our political panel ahead on "happening now." andrea. >> thanks, jon. >> los angeles one of five finalists to host the 2024 olympics. in an effort to stand out, i like that music, organizers release ad promotional video. it touts l.a. as the northern capital of latin america as well as western capital of the u.s. and eastern capital of the pacific rim. that is melissa laughing. why are you laughing? >> it is so silly. it is so ridiculous. i don't know, i'm from l.a. i bathed in the ridiculousness for a long time. i'm a little cynical about it. but i also think it is so funny they're trying to win this booby prize. everyone that wins olympics rye get later. it's a huge cost. never make the money they say.

people stay away because they don't want to build traffic. they build huge stadiums no one uses again. businesses say they lost money and spent all this money. this is a booby prize and doing silly thing to get it. i don't know. >> we looked this up, according to the latest numbers from the u.s. census, 48.5% of los angeles is hispanic or latino. they may be basing this on the numbers that they see. it is outreach thing. it is marketing thing. >> that is exactly what ply point will be. i'm reserving outrage here. everybody who tries these campaigns tries to highlight the diversity, what makes them unique and different. >> yeah. >> certainly in the case of l.a. i think they went a bit overboard, glorifying some of their distinctions geographically. i don't think frankly more than a marketing executive did some sort of analysis. >> thank you. >> somebody says you're this and that. >> somebody is getting paid big bucks to come up with something,

tony. the answer was good ol' usa? paycheck withdrawn. i completely agree with you. >> how does this work exactly? you're saying, melissa cities don't recoup what they spend. >> here in new york, with the super bowl. bring in all the money. you end up hiring all the security. they think tourists flood into town. half stay away because they're afraid of traffic and danger and everything else that comes with it. ends up being this huge cost. >> i would love -- >> you would? >> for fun of it. then you get the traffic and, no. money loser. it always ends up being a money loser. you know you pay for it. later taxpayers will be mad and just -- >> doesn't this point to a bigger issue of immigration? they're doing this because, according to the associated press a couple weeks ago latinos are on the verge of outnumbering whites. a lot of them are illegal immigrants. this is why trump is resonating. if they're doing this, it is

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>> well, listen up, boys. it helps to show those pearly whites a little bit more especially if you're looking for lasting love. a new study shows that women who want a long-term relationship find men who smile more attractive. women also rate men more trustworthy when they smile. but if you're just looking for a fling, research suggests the brooding or cool guy look comes off as more masculine. our stage manager patch doesn't agree at all. shakes his head. does our one lucky guy? >> i think this is totally intuitive. i would love to see raw numbers of men who wanted fling versus real relationship we might see frowning men around town. turn it on its head, right. men who smile are more wholesome.

maybe appear polite, pleasant, whatever, they will get women to trust them more might have a long-term relationship. the guy says come hither he wants a fling. if the woman smiles. the perception is somebody might be outgoing, gregarious, open-minded, however you want to phrase it. that is one way to put it. ruining my theory, up for fun and a woman who is frowning less approachable. >> icy? >> icy. she might be someone you need to spend a lot of time and invest a lot of energy but you would, if you wanted to have a long-term relationship with her. so i think this is entire theory makes sense. >> you think where opposites attract came from? frowning guys looking for smiley women? >> there may be truth in that although that is not the point necessarily. >> working back through the math on that. is that what i said? i'm not sure that is what i said. >> we're all looking for a fling because we're all smiling with

big tooth think grins. that is because, not for flings. we're going our own fling, "outnumbered overtime." go to the web. foxnews.com,/ot tab. tune into our debate coverage, pre-and post with, bill o'reilly 8:00 p.m. live. we'll be there. "happening now" right now. in the reagan library. and collapse and economic meltdown felt here and around the world. seven years after the fall of