martha: christmas music. matt plays it for me every year. amy man. i love it it. bill: that is sixth avenue. it is cool this time of the year. martha: have a great day, everybody. see you tomorrow. jenna: less than two months before the first votes are casted in iowa. i am jenna lee. jon: and i am jon scott. three of the top contenders appearing in iowa and nevada and we will speak to one of them. ted cruz is shown to be leading in iowa and donald trump is still dominating the republican

field nationally. here with his crystal ball on where the race could be headed is the director of the center of politics at the university of virginia. you say this is a year when voters probably should tend to want to lean republican. it is tough for one party to keep the white house three terms into row. there are a lot of variables, though. start with the biggest one. >> the biggest one is the candidates. it matters who is nominated. we ignore that and talk about the economy, national security, and foreign policy and of course they matter. president obama's approval rating matters; whether it is high or low. but the most important thing of all is for a party to pick a candidate that can compete and compete with the electorate that

exist. jon: donald trump is number one among republicans and stacked up against the republicans he doesn't do as well. >> that is certainly the conclusion you would reach just looking at the bottom lines of the various polls. of course, you can say one important thing: they change. polls change daily, weekly, and monthly. you never know what the fall is going to bring. but if you are stacking up the candidates you would have to reach the conclusion that you just suggested. jon: the crystal ball still thinks that it is unlikely that donald trump becomes the republican nominee. why? >> well things could change and i understand every year is different and history isn't also a determinant.

the republicans don't want to be on the ballott with donald trump. that is the fact. anybody who talks to these elected officials and the party leadership, at least off the record, knows that is true. jon: jeb bush did some talking to him during the debate. let's replay that clip: >> donald is great at the one-liners. but he is a chaos candidate and he would be a chaos president. he would not be the commander and chief to keep us safe. >> jeb doesn't believe i am unhinged. he is saying that because his campaign has been a disaster.

all i want to do is make america great. jon: maybe not the most solid person but the most solid numbers. all of the other attempts by the others to bring donald trump back down to earth have not worked. >> they haven't. and that exchange was interesting. bush said to trump you are a chaos candidate and trump had the better answer saying jeb, you are a failed candidate. i am not going to say he cannot come back. strange things happen in politics. but when you are in low single digits it is difficult to come back. just a year ago this week, jon, jeb bush announced he was going to run. he was the instant frontrunner and now boom bottom of the pack. jon: an awful lot can happen in

the polls and the voter's minds. let's imagine donald trump were to become the nominee. nominees say one thing to win the nomination and say something else to the general public to try to win a general election. >> this is a trick i think trump has up his sleeve. everybody knows that trump has changed positions, let's say, on a wide variety of issues over the years. well he could easily change again. i could see this guy following richard nixon which works, running to the right to get the republican nomination and scurry back to the center to win the general election. it is not too hard to imagine trump doing that except maybe on immigration where he cannot change the position so easily. jon: where does president obama

and his job performance fit into the calculus going into 2016? >> it matters enormously. people keep writing saying hillary clinton can run independently from president obama because she will refer back to president clinton. but she really can't. any candidate of the incumbent party is tied to the incumbent president. she is not going to be able to be a completely independent actor. she will be partly a function of the obama white house. jon: and you point out that, you know, one of the -- well, some of the baggage she carries into the this election, and it certainly looks like she will be

the democratic nominee but you write many voters don't like or trust her. >> she has serious problems on the honest and trustworthy question that is asked in surveys. she is surprising low with democrats even. a surprisingly large minority of democrats have doubts about her trustworthiness. independents and republicans it is really low. jon: she has been on the scene a while and people know her. >> 25 years she has been in the headlines day after day. by now, most people, even those not that politically active, have a pretty fixed opinion of her. each new piece of information doesn't add too much. jon: thanks, larry.

jenna: breaking news. adam housely is live in san bernardino with the latest for us. adam? >> reporter: jenna, reports out this morning that the man who bought the two rifles is going to be brought in front of a judge to be detained. i can tell you this: just off the phone with our sources and they say this has been ready for almost a week. but they are not hundred percent sure they will take him in front of a judge today and two reasons for that. the first is he is still talking. and once he goes in front of a judge they will lose a lot of access to him. and the department of justice in washington, d.c. has to look at the complaint and it has to go up the chain and back down the change. that has not yet come back down the chain yet. there is not a hundred percent certainty we will be in front of

a judge in riverside today. it may not happen today. the president is coming here tomorrow to meet with families who lost loved ones and those injured and first responders and that will happen tomorrow on the way to hawaii. it is a closed event. we don't expect him to speak and will speak and meet with them on the way to hawaii. it comes as the fbi director talks about the digital footprint they are piecing together. that is confirming the reporting we have been saying and that is these two have been radicalized before isis and have been communicating via the internet. take a listen: >> in late 2013, before there is a physical meeting of these two people resulting in their engagement and journey to the united states they are communicating online showing signs in the communication of their joint commitment to jihad and martyrdom.

they are direct private messages. we have found no evidence of posting on social media so far. >> reporter: we have also learned the two terrorist have finally been buried here about an hour from this location at an undisclosed location. we have been told several different muslim cemeteries turned them away and they were not allowed to be buried there. obviously it took some time for that to happen and we have a bit surprised because we were first told that malik's body might be sent back to pakistan but apparently that did not happen. they plan to bring enrique m marquez once he stops talking. jenna: adam, thank you for the breaking news. jon: president obama is heading

to san bernardino to meet with the families of that terror atta attack. before he does he is on his way to the national terror center to get a briefing along with his national security team. we will have the president's comments for you live. kevin clark is live at the white house. >> reporter: good day to you, jon. perhaps the third time is the charm for the commander and chief. he talked from the oval office and then later the pentagon and again today the president will talk about coordination, with intelligence community and state and local officials, as the white house tries to put out the idea they are fully engaged and taking this terror threat very seriously. there is not a real read out of exactly what the president will be talking about but i want to share based on what he said in previous addresses what he is probably talking about. we expect him to outline the

steps underway to combat terror. listen to the improved coordination domestically and internationally with our partners in france, and germany and the uk. and the need to undermine the evolving tactics in the way they collect funds and also screening. background checking is huge if you are going to protect the homeland and that is an area where some on capitol hill are saying they are missing the mark. >> the immigration screening process is a critical element in protecting the american people. reviewing the backgrounds of foreign nationals before they come to the united states is crucial in understanding who is entering the united states. in the recent terror attacks in san bernardino highlight how important these background

checks have to be. >> reporter: you should expect the to president to talk about enhancing background checks today. expect coordination between intelligence and military communities and let the american people know as they are engaged they understand the threat is serious and they want to assure you they are working hard to keep us safe. and the second part is they have to keep pace and that means evolving tactics in the war on terror especially here at home. jon: kevin cork at the white house. thank you, kevin. jenna: what the rising in the rates mean from everything from car sales to home sales to the bottom line. and senator mark rubio hitting the campaign tail in iowa. it is your turn to weigh in. what questions do you have when senator rubio joins us live?

jenna: the feds raised the bench mark impacting everything from loans, and credit cards. we will look at the markets today. trading lower by 145 points or so. chief economic correspondent for the washington journal and fox news contributor is here. it seems like the markets were happy yesterday. what is going on with the markets today? >> i think there was some relief because there has been so much talk about this. the markets had a good run up and they are coming back. but the story is the feds did it and chaos didn't break out. there was worry when the feds raised rates it could cause

selling and we didn't see that. jenna: the feds said they will watch inflation in the following months. we have talked about deflation, stagnation, and now we are watching inflation. why the concern? >> so the fed has a goal of 2% inflation. they think that is a level they can keep the economy going at a strong but stable rate with 2% inflation. they have been running below 2% inflation over more than 3.5 years. think of inflation has the temperature. if your temperature is well it shows you are not well. if inflation is very low it shows the economy doesn't have a lot of energy so they want to see inflation getting up to 2% as a sign the economy has more energy inside it. they will keep raising the rates

if they see inflation going up to 2%. if it doesn't, all bets could be off on the increases. jenna: i am curious about the economy and the viewers had a lot of questions. if the feds are raising rates because the economy looks better the viewers had concerns about the economy moving forward and one those areas is the oil market. a lot of oil producers are getting hit hard. how concerned are you about about that market, john, and what it could mean for the economy and moving ahead next year? >> there is trade off with oil. it is hitting oil producing states like texas and oil-producing jobs like people running rigs. but it is a huge boom to consumers. they would say on net it is a benefit for the u.s. economy and it relates to the interest

rates. i was talking to an auto dealer in wisconsin asking which one matters more and he said a quarter percent increase in the rate raises the monthly charge on a 30,000 car loan by $4 a month. the decline we are seeing in gasoline prices given how much americans drive he said in wisconsin it saves the average household about $200 a month. the oil change prices are a big deal and should be helping to keep the economy going next year because it will keep consumers spending money. car sales are booming. jenna: john, great having you on the program. >> thank you. jon: pain at the pump appears to be in the rear view mirror as oil and gas prices head way down. the impact on the economy as a

whole and the industry that is seeing a big boost. and a collision on the high seas. the frantic effort to find missing crew members before it is too late.

is jenna: investigators are trying to learn what caused this collision but one report suggested they tried to take a shortcut and violated traffic separation rules. jon: there is positive fallout from the falling fuel prices. the national average for a gallon of regular gas is just a

little over two dollars. americans have more cash and that is boosting spending with car dealers reaping a lot of benefits. we are live with more. >> reporter: because of the story i am in pretty sweet company. we are at audi denver and according to jp morgan chase 80% of the money americans are saving at the pump they are spending instead of saving. sales of vehicles from ford surpassed an 18 million annual rate and suvs and trucks are particularly poplar. and you know the fuel cost sticker you see on the new vehicles that tells you how much to expect to spend on gas on that car for the year that price is set by the federal government which is at $3 a gallon which is more than gas cost.

so subtract about 34% from that figure. >> when households save on anyone whether it is gasoline or electric they want to buy. we are forecasting a good year for automobile purchases as well. >> reporter: according to aaa vehicles new and old are being put to work. americans drove 3.12 trillion miles and that is a 3.5% increase over last year. some say consumers can expect the lower prices into 2016. aaa says 105.5 million people hit the road air or rail and 91% will be driving. and i have nicknamed this rudolph but i don't think it can

fit in my stocking. jon: that could mean you haven't been a good girl this year. >> reporter: that is not what that means at all. i just don't have a big enough stocking. jon: merry christmas. see you later. jenna: as we go over the final debate of 2015 we discuss what it means for the candidates and the future of the republican party. and army sergeant bowe bergdahl speaking about his first meeting after walking off his post and meeting with the taliban. meeting with the taliban. california walnuts. the best simple veggie dish ever? heart healthy california walnuts. the best simple dinner ever? heart healthy california walnuts. great tasting, heart healthy california walnuts. so simple. get the recipes at walnuts.org.

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jon: guess what? the iowa caucuses are less than seven weeks away and the gop field is still very crowded. this as the debate showed there is a wide range of ideas within the republican field about the future of the country. new york times writing quote we have taste in the republican debate of what the contest would look like when paul sniped at rubio from the corner of the stage. yet the possibility of a real clash of ideas hasn't gone the way of paul's campaign. if the race came down to the three men currently leading in the national polls republican primary voters would be facing

their most ideological choice since 1980. let's talk about it with the panel. you say republicans are facing a delima. >> i think they are at an inflection point. it is very exciting to see because you know, i will put it back to my mother, she said you win by addition not by subtraction. and the question is will republicans be exclusionary or inclusionary? 51% of americans make 28,000 a year or less. that is not enough. we call ourselves middle class but we don't have middle class pocket books. we have a trillion student loan problem. what are we going to do about this? the republicans could walk in and bring people together. i am waiting to see that happen.

>> during the debate process we are trying to see who our nominee will be. once we get that then we can reach out. i think it is great trump is in the race. i don't listen to the new york times because they are not great policymakers. but discussing issues is good. many of the candidates are having trump set the report, having trump set the tone. if i were running for office, i would look to carly fiorina and take a play from her playbook because she answers the questions and then goes on to her agenda. jon: as donald trump says things about the mexicans being killers and banning muslims. is that the way to grow the part? >> i am a registered republican. do i sound like a rapist? just because one person has that point of view. and he is saying the sentiment

dealing with some americans, the tea party, that is why the poll numbers are up. donald trump doesn't set the tone or platform for the republican party. the press and candidates are giving him too much attention. >> i don't agree with that. i think you have outliers in both parties giving the parties the emergency -- energy. >> that is energy not platform. >> i saw this with reggie jackson and him bringing in two million people. you need energy to fire up the base in the fall. >> she is exactly right. but we're great communicators and policymakers. >> i don't think this is about liberals or conservatives. >> i don't either. >> then let's not put the labels on there. i am an american. >> and i am, too.

>> i don't want a democratic president or republican president. i want a president who is going to be for all of the people. whatever party they are in that is fine with me. at the end of the day, even in the primary process, angela, we have to bring people in under the tent. even mr. trump said i don't want to be pushing people away. jon: jeb bush said something about how to grow the party during the debate and i will play that: >> we have to secure the border. it is a serious undertaking. we need more fencing, to use technology, and need more border control and better cooperation with local law enforcement. there are 800,000 cops on the beat. they ought to be trained to be the eyes and ears for law enforcement for the threat against terror as well as immigration. this is a serious challenge. if we can get it right, we will start winning votes again. jon: let me finish with you

because you are the registered republican of the duo. do you predict republicans are going to create this big tent this year that they say they want? >> i think they have a grand opportunity in 2016 and if anybody can do it is jeb bush. his brother received 45% of the latino vote and a large percentage of the african-american vote. right now, in fighting and the actual candidate that said mexicans were racist is not a good start. >> i am not for exclusion. i am for inclusion for everybody. at the end of the day, what we have to do is put aside the language that divides us, but also bring people in. and that is true for democrats and republicans. you have to make face for people -- >> tell bernie sanders and hillary clinton that. double standard. >> i don't have a double standard.

what i am saying is at the end of the day what we have to do is find a way to bring people in. jon: both parties ought to get more people to the polls because not enough americans vote. there are tensions rising in baltimore after a mistrial is declared in the trial of the first police officer charged in the death of freddie gray. peter is live in baltimore live with more on what happened there. >> reporter: officer porter told the baltimore sun writer who wanted to know how he felt about the mistrial: it is not over yet. and the next step to determine the officer's fate is in progress. the judge just met with porter's lawyers and the state prosecutors to talk about the possibility of a retrialing where timing is key because the state has been hoping porter could testify against the officer who was driving the van in the freddie gray case where freddie gray was injured.

but the state can't make porter testify in another matter before his is resolved. so retrying him first means a delay for another trial and retrying him last means loosing a valuable witness. the weather is dampening the widespread protest after a night of marching that disrupted traffic but only resulted in two arrest before winding down. the demonstrations came after the mayor explained to the people upset about the mistrial that it is all part of the process. >> the protesters were very clear they supported this trial being held in baltimore city. that means they put the case in the hands of baltimore city residents. 12 baltimore residents answered the call to hear the case and make a decision. they did that. and we have to respect that. >> reporter: and there is still

a gag order on everybody involved in this matter. we don't know how close the hung jury came to convicting or acquitting officer porter and we don't know if a retrial has been scheduled yet. jon: people thought they would get an answer and there isn't it. pe peter, thank you. jenna: bowe bergdahl offered his side of the story in a podcast and the second one is out this morning. he said quote i told the taliban i was fed up with the american commanders because they were disrespectful but that didn't work because they didn't know what disrespectful meant so i told them rude and they understood that. he is facing a charge of desertion and it could follow

with a full life in prison charge. tom is here to talk to about this. the podcast came out with comments from bowe bergdahl. what do you think the impact of his point of view now coming out on the podcast before his trial? >> it is horrendous. as a criminal defense attorney any time your client is speaking statements like this it isn't a good thing. everything he is saying in this podcast is admissable in court. if you look at the substance of what he is saying it is more consistent than someone who was looking to go to give himself over to the enemy whereas the defense is trying to say he was mentally unstable and couldn't handle it.

jenna: you hear there are two episodes out there and the journalist doing them came out this morning in the second installment and said there are two schools of thoughts. those that really know bowe bergdahl like the investigating officer feel like five years with the taliban was enough and maybe a year sentence and that is fine. but the army as a whole has a different perspective. how do you see it? >> you wonder is it the army that has a different perspective or the political powers that be? that is a big theme in this case. if he is convicted that will be an issue the defense is going to look at on appeal. in a military trial jurors are not ordinary citizens but they are members of the military and members of the marshall all the way up to the president who is commander and chief. the argument the defense makes is it is weighing on the decision of the jury to convict because they feel like they have

an obligation or mandate from higher powers. jenna: the podcast gives insight on what the case will look like. you hear from those who served with bowe bergdahl and the situations they were put in trying to find him. they go into what is like a house, a building, and the entire thing is booby-trapped. it shows how many lives were put at risk. how do you think that impacts the case? and that perspective coming out before the trial and one we will hear inside the trial. >> that is a huge factor because a lot of the members on the jury panel are going to have served in combat themselves and understand the risks that go with that and it is going to add an emotional element to this trial whereas we may have the inclination to sympathize with bowe bergdahl because this is someone who whatever mistakes he

made he spent five years with the taliban so the debt is paid in full. on the other hand, the jury hears about other individuals who put themselves at risk or may have lost their lives trying to capture or rescue this individual who perhaps didn't want to be rescued and was leaving his post to con sort with the enemy. jenna: tom, great to have you. thank you so much. jon: senator mark rubio is hitting the campaign trail in iowa and he is joining us live to discuss how he would address growing concerns about national security.

jenna: president obama will be speaking on national security amid the growing questions in response to the terror threat

and funders are debating a funding bill that will bring syrian refuges to the united states. joining us live is senator mark rubio. nice to have you back. >> thanks for having me back. jenna: we expect to hear from the president today and we heard sweeping policy ideas from the president and a lot from candidates. specifically if it was today and president rubio and you had to decide the action to take what would be one thing you would change to make us safer? >> we have to focus on homeland security and defeating isis where they are located in the middle east. on the homeland security front as i said we need a top down review of every single legal immigration program we have that could be manipulated.

most americans didn't know about the fiance visa. we know isis is trying to recruit people like doctors and students to use those visas. it is disappointing that the funding bill in place does nothing to deal with that or the syrian refuges. we need to rebuild our intelligence capabilities especially in the face of home-grown terrorism. we have people running for president that voted to diminish this program and take away valuable tools. jenna: if i could before we move abroad, the reviews you are taking about could take months or years. and a lot of americans think there needs to be things done immediately. what kind of time frame are you looking for to make reviews and make the changes? >> we know a lot of what we need to know. we know they are targeting doctors and student visas.

we need err on the side of caution before allowing people into the country. we need to know more than before about people entering the country particularly if they have markers and could be the kind of people isis is recruiting. this includes looking at social media profiles. and as far as the middle east is concerned we need to work together to put together the coalition led primarily by sunni operators. jenna: i want to ask you about the spending bill. your colleagues, senator jeff session, says when it comes to provision for refuges this bill allows more refuges and more taxpayer dollars to do that. every gop senator or lawmaker has to approve this bill to move

it forward. so a senator could put a stop to this if they don't agree with it. it this is a big enough issue you would put a stop to the bill moving forward because of the refuge provision? >> you can slow it down. if they want to pass it they will ram it down everyone's throat. this is over a trillion in spending put together at the last second. they know it has to be done. they wait until december to do it. there is one provision that takes away the bailout fund for obamacare and a bunch of really bad stuff and you mentioned one. this is why people are so frustrated with washington. we know this is a problem, we know isis is trying to use the refuge program to infiltrate isis members into the united states and nothing is changing. people are asking how washington

can be so out of touch? people shake their head asking how can it be. jenna: you are part of the group that will allow it to go through. we understand the point of slowing it down but the question about what to do next is a big one and i will ask you that after this break.

jenna: back with us is mark rub rubio. he is headed a town hall meeting soon so we will wrap up. you are telling us we know isis is trying to use the refuge program to get into the the country and on the other hand you are saying there is nothing to stop the spending bill. if we cannot do anything about

it, how will you change it as president? >> we can slow down the process and force them to make changes and there is no doubt and we can and we should and will. there is an effort with many conservatives to make it happen. there is a way to do it. the question is whether the willingness is there. my point is over the last few years there is a moment when the establishment in washington and both parties get together and get enough votes and cram it down people's throat. this is a massive piece of legislation. over a trillion in spending. it was just announced and in 48 hours everyone has to make a decision about what to do. i know identify to say we will oppose it and should use procedures to force the slow down and changes. jenna: how would you slow down the bill? what would be your role?

>> if you can slow it down and make them take more days in order to pass it. if they sufficient number of votes at the end they can ram it down our throat. if we can add days the way senator session is and others maybe the process of slowing it down allows more americans to wake up to the reality of what is in the bill and demand their representatives make the changes. jenna: what would be the one change in 30 seconds you would make to refuge program? can you give me one? >> i think on the syrian refuges we would not be able to admit most of them. we just don't have enough information to vet them again. i would say if there is a seven year old orphan or well known priest or something that common sense shows us we know something about you can make an exception. but this is an issue we have to be 100 percent right on. until we have enough information to vet people with we will not

bow allowed to let them in. jenna: thank you for joining us, senator. we will be right back with more "happening now."

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>> more news to get to. we'll see you back here in an hour. >> "outnumbered" starts right now. harris: fox news alert. we're waiting on the president again, to make remarks at the national counterterrorism center in virginia. i say this again, we heard him talk about terror couple times in past two weeks. he has met again with his national security team for a briefing on terror threats and this is one day after homeland security just revamped it is entire terror alert system and activated it for very first time, warning the public quote of self-radicalized actors who could strike with little or known notice, end quote. this is crowd numbered. i'm hair russ faulkner. here today, sandra smith.