of honor. the generosity was enormous. thank you to the folks who made our visit enjoyable and profitable. they have done a lot of great work. check out foldsofhonor.org. jon: a deadly terror attack rock as popular tourist site. i'm jon scott. jenna: i'm jenna lee. the turkish prime minister says a syrian member of the islamic state blew himself up in a homicide bombing that killed at least 10 people. it happened in an area of

istanbul very popular with tourists and most those killed were german citizens. reporter: we understand nine out of the ten killed were german citizens. this area was popular with tourists and locals. it really is in the heart of downtown istanbul and it's heavy guarded, an area where there is a lot of security. it demonstrates how vulnerable turkey is to a terror attack. there is a big uptick in the terror attacks the last months. a few months ago we saw more than 100 killed in ankara after isis launched an attack and it's believed isis was behind today's attack as well. officials pointing the finger at isis and a syrian man blew up a suicide belt in this downtown is

and bult market area. istanbul and turkey have changed in the last few months as isis has launched these attacks in turkey. for a long time turkey viewed isis as a partner'. isis has begun to hit against turkey as turkey has begun to allow the united states access to its air air space to strike against isis. turkey is beginning to see isis as an enemy and not an ally in the fight against bashar al-assad. and that's the big change. whether turkey will continue to put the pressure against isis is not clear. they started to tamper down access to the border for foreign fighters but more needs to be done by the turks. whether they will continue to do this with this rash of violence or relent, that's one of the big

questions. jon: let's talk politics on this date of the state of the union. the presidential race is tightening up on both sides of the aisle. polls among new hampshire voters senator bernie sanders leads with 50%. 15 points ahead of former secretary of state hillary clinton. donald trump is out in front for the gop in new hampshire with more than twiems the support of his closest rival, senator marco rubio. but in iowa it's closer with ted cruz and donald trump locked in a statistical dead heat.

joining us now pete snyder, and a democratic pollster in chief. jessica, let me start with you. because the democratic numbers are interesting. do you see any possibility hillary clinton could lose new hampshire and iowa? >> there is a possibility. bernie sanders made up a lot of ground in iowa. the real clear politics average has her at 10. he has -- he's building his ground game. i can see a scenario where she loses iowa and new hampshire. she is stronger in south

carolina. but at the end of the day this is a good thing for hoik to be pushed like this. bernie sanders is a great guy. he's authentic and genuine. he has a real message he's trying to get out there about income inequality and it's resonating with voters. people wanted a healthy democratic competition but i still think hillary clinton comes out on top. bill: people are saying the democratic race is a mess and there is all this turmoil. >> all you hear from the mainstream media is about the chaos in the republican primary. if that's the case, why is every single one of our major candidates beating hillary clinton or tied with her? it's because she is an authentic candidate. sanders is a then particular. our folks are bringing real solutions to the table, and the

country, especially the democrats are sick and tired of the clintons. they want to turn the page and move on. >> jessica did not say hillary clinton was inauthentic. i said bernie sanders is genuine. jon: if hillary drops iowa and new hampshire. you will see elizabeth warren mobilized. i don't think hillary clinton will win the nomination if she losses the first two. jon: let's look at 2016 matchup. marco rubio actually trounces hoik 50% to 41%. ted cruz beats her 50-43. these are the numbers you were alluding to earlier. donald trump comes in 47-44 over

mrs. clinton though that's within the margin of error. jeb bush ties hoik at 44-44. do those numbers worry you? >> they are a little worrying. if your candidate was trouncing everybody else. but the marco rubio point is important. i have been saying for months i think he's the gop's strongest chance. if you were watching this weekend on the for you on poverty. donald trump and ted cruz did not bother to show up. you saw marco rubio a real champion of conservative principles. he was talking about more training and providing opportunities. i think those are the ideas that will resonate with conservative voters. fundamentally donald trump isn't a conservative. ted cruz is. there is an interesting piece from david brooks about how ted

cruz won't end up appealing to evangelical voters. i don't know if that's true. but ted cruz is the one to watch and if he picks up a republican governor as his vp it will be an incredibly strong ticket. jon: 48% of gop voters think donald trump would be the best at undoing or reversing many of barack obama's policies. does that explain much of the trump appeal in the gop world? >> it explains a lot of the trump appeal and it explains a lot of the trus appeal. the republican electorate believes the last 7 years have been a total abomination. if you look at how we keep score. our reputation in the world, what you are economy has been up to. our foreign policy. they are right. it's been a complete and utter disaster *.

donald trump is strong on that. so is marco rubio and ted cruz. jon: thank you both. a monmouth university poll shows senator bernie sanders leading in the former secretary of state hillary clinton leading in the in every major voting bloc in new hampshire. quite a change from just a few week ago. in november clinton led sanders 48-45%. jenna: new information on the deadly raid that led to the capture of the notorious drug lord el chapo. the mexican government releasing new video giving us a look at the operation. at one point he almost managed to escape. william lajeunesse is live with the details. >> two amazing thing that you see in that video.

when you watch the entire raid, 5 men are still alive despite the hail of business and grenade. secondly the place is a dump where the richest man in the world lives like a peasant with a couch and a microwave. inside cops find rocket, guns and grenade. the cartel literally caught sleeping. and guzman almost escapes again. take a look at the secret tunnel. when the raid begins he runs into the city many sewer system out a manhole where he steals a car at gunpoint but the police catch him an hour later on the highway in a stolen vehicle. but here comes the big question. who gets the drug lord. washington has not decided what u.s. city prosecute him.

charge also pending in miami and new hampshire. prosecutors say they will choose the strongest case to most likely get a conviction. as for sean penn. officials say he was essential to the capture. he was talking to the actress who continued to talk to el chapo. jon: the trial begins for a man accused of luring a real estate agent to a home and then killing her. what the defendant's attorney is saying about this case. pileup thing oil prices sparking fears about american energy companies. is there any help in sight? and we want to hear from you. is president obama's final state of the union address, what would

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or go to gohartfordauto.com today. get this free calculator just for requesting a quote. jon: a former detective testified that a dog detected traces of hannah graham's blood. the trial of the accused killer begins today. lewis' lawyers say it will be impossible to it will be possible to seat an impartial jury despite the interest in the

case. the mother much bella bond whose body was found on a massachusetts beach probably killed the little girl and she is trying to blame another for the murder. jenna: several major investment banks expect oil's downward spiral to continue sparking bankruptcy fears for a large portion of the u.s. oil industry. the oil industry has been a bright not our economy for a number of years. but a number of these companies could be going out of business. why is it so difficult right now. >> we are seeing an epic price collapse. you know, in a way the u.s.

energy industry was a victim of their own success. started to produce a lot of oil and they raised the ire of opec. so opec decided to flood the market with oil. their goal was to put the u.s. energy producer out of business, and i'm sad to say based on what we are seeing they are having a lot of success. if this is a production war, opec is winning. jenna: if you have the saudi arabian companies' goal to be putting american businesses out of business, can we fight back? >> an oil export ban should have been done years ago. and we finally did that. so that is the first step. the other step is basically to

continue to produce a lot of oil and try to keep our guys in business. one of the things i hate about this sell-off in oil. for years we have been trying to become energy independent and we were well on our way. but for the first time in six years since the shale gas revolution started we imported more oil year over year for the first time. that's not the direction we need to be going in this country. jenna: how do we change that? >> the best way to change it is to put a tariff on opec oil. they are dumping oil in this marketplace. if this were any other good or producer we would be screaming for fair trade. we would be in front of the world. but when it comes to oil there is nothing like that. i think that would be one thing to do. er thing is to grow our economy at home because other thing that will solve this problem is to

get our economy going on full cylinder and start using more oil and we are starting to see signs that could happen. the lower prices could help our economy. jenna: economists say you have cheaper gas prices and consumer spending that helps pick up some of the slack. but a lot of the job growth happens in these industries. i'm curious if you can go back to the comments you made at the beginning of the segment. you said you haven't seen anything like this in 45 years. over the last 45 years this industry has had to make adjustments and transitions. could this be an opportunity for some of these companies to learn how to make a lot of money when oil could be trading at $25 a barrel? >> whenever you have see a crash like this, it's a booming and bust industry it's hard to see when you are in a bust that there will be a boom that will

come in the next few years. energy companies have cut back on their spending, the most since the 1980s. if you are going to stop looking for oil at some point, you will get into a shortage. a lot of these oil fields out there will start to decline. if demand starts to go up we'll be behind the curve. sow it will be survival of the fittest. strong oil companies will be enjoying the boom. but that's assuming they can get through the bust. jenna: the markets have a rocky start to the year. we look forward to having you back, thank you. jon: in texas the aif you * mom just got out of jail.

what he needs to say tonight and will it affect the heated race for the white house.

marco rubio. he ran for senate saying he opposed amnesty... then he flipped, and worked with liberal chuck schumer to co-author the path to citizenship bill. he threatened to vote against it. and then voted for it. he supported his own dream act and then he abandoned it. marco rubio. just another washington politician you can't trust. jeb bush. he's a leader,

so you always know where he stands. right to rise usa is responsible for the content of this message.

jenna: tonya couch, the so-called affluenza mom is out on bail. she came back to the united states after leaving for mexico with her son who was on probation. ethan not sentenced for any time in jail after his attorney argued he didn't know the consequences of his actions because he was coddled by his wealthy parents. jon: the president is gearing up for his final state of the union

address. how does it all figure into tonight's speech. neil, obviously up until paris and san bernardino the economy was front and center on the minds. americans. these days, terrorism and national affairs trump those. where does the president smart this speech tonight? >> we are told he's going to do a lot of brag. he will refer to the 2.5 million jobs gained last year. he will talk about how different the country is from when he assumed office. he will talk about the unemployment rate at 5% versus near 10%. so he will be doing a lot of crowing. prescription drug prices soared

over 10% in the last year. even though the president is talking about how much the healthcare law has helped folks. $17 million added to payroll. nikki haley and her response will be it's come as an enormous cost. the back and forth is why we are here and the presidential candidates will be so focused on responding to what the president says tonight, on. jon: we are told he wants to talk about what unites us as a nation. i think going back 8 years ago when he was talking about hope and change and was elected to be a fewifying figure in the country. you can't blame the president for all of this. >> they continue to be on the national campaign front.

they are divide amongst themselves. ' they have prepared their talking points against each other, and i haven't even gotten to hillary clinton and her battle. a lot of these candidates seem to be focused of late on terror. the istanbul attack you were alluding to early on that killed 10 people is a reminder isis is alive and well and how to deal with it. republicans are seizing on that as a reminder that the president isn't up to this task. as it goes into this final state of the union address on the issue of terror and whether we are safe. 72% of americans feel we are not. jon: talking about the politics and divisiveness that seems to

prevail in this country. the president has said to rather urn kind things about republicans and even individual republicans. the leading in the contendser for the democratic nomination is someone who counsel among her biggest enemies and bragged that her biggest enemies in washington are republicans. is it any wonder that we are so fractured right now in this country? >> i think you hit on something here. but they do dislike each other intensely. you always wonder how they are going to bridge that divide whoever is elected later on this year. the fact of the matter is i had one analyst say whoever wins better win by a landslide because the verdict won't thereby and the support won't be there. of course, it depend if it's a republican then he or she has control of the house or the

senate, you can do a lot with that. but for revolutionary structural change. the tax code. that's something that would require a reaganesque victory with the mandate to change that kind of stuff. short of that people are saying, whose better for the job. unless he or she has a large voting mandate behind them it will be pretty much the same old story. jon: are you getting ready to pin the republicans down in that debate? >> if you were to handicap this a week ago you would think gun control would be the dominant theme. and market volatility. a dominant theme. isis has moved front and center with these attacks in istanbul. it literally changes on the hour. i remember in th -- in the

milwaukee debate, our theme changed as we saw protesters outside the hall talking about a minimum wage. the difference this time is it's not just business topics we can get into. we can get into peaks in the middle east, the whole nine yards. it's all open and fair game. jon: tonight president obama delivers his final state of the union address. bret baier anchors our coverage beginning at 8:55 eastern time. neil will moderate the gop presidential debate on the fox business network thursday night with maria bartiromo. the second tier candidates get the chance to face off at 6:00 p.m. eastern time and the prime time debate kicks off at 9:00 p.m. eastern time.

jenna: my next guest says if 2012 is anything to go by. >> an american woman was found strangled in her apartment in florence. what ashley olsen's friend are saying about the night she disappeared.

jon: new information on an american woman murdered in italy. what she was doing just before she vanished. jo ling: the powerball lottery jackpot just hit the 1.5 billion mark. with lots of people pooling their money to buy more ticket. how do you keep track your numbers? now there is an app for that. jenna: donald trump and ted cruz leading in the the gop pack in iowa. but some analysts say both those candidate could have trouble gaining support from middle of the road voters. 20% crib themselves as moderate and 29% describe themselves as

independent. in the "wall street journal," david brady writes ... professor brady, i'm curious, if the same is true for democrats as well. there are more democrats than republicans. do they need independent as much as republicans do? >> they don't need them as much as republicans do, but they do need independent. they have to come in under the present party division. they have to come in with 45% or so of independent. if they don't come in with that, the republicans win. jenna: what is it about the

independent voters you feel is of particular note for this republican field. >> generally independent are more moderate than are democrat and republicans and they generally go in the following direction. the independents are a little more conservative on economic matters than democrats. and they are more liberal on social matters than are republicans. they fit in the middle and their vote can wave and move from one candidate to the other. jenna: you write in your piece, the large field of folks who say they will vote. why is that particularly bad for trump and cruz. >> we have the same panel of 5,000 people. and we interviewed them five times since june.

and it turns out when we ask the question do you have very favorable to very unfavorable, senator cruz and mr. trump had the most negative unfavorable to very favorable rating. so in december we decided to ask a consideration question. would you consider voting for, and we went over all the candidates, democrats included. would you consider voting for tore would you never consider voting for or don't know. it turns out among moderate. 58 per, 60% of independents or moderate say they would not vote for mr. trump and 60% say they would not vote for senator cruz. other republican candidates didn't have numbers as a negative numbers as high. jenna: could that be because trump and cruz are getting the most press. they feel contrasted with other

candidates who aren't maybe getting as much attention? >> that's possibly so. but i don't think that's correct. the reason i don't think it's correct. you have to remember what we are focusing on is the iowa electorate. that iowa republican caucus electorate is very evangelical. in november 2/3, 3/4 of the people voteing are not republican. so it's an entirely different audience. what you say now in order to gain support in iowa or south carolina or in nevada does not necessarily play very well in november when you are up for the general electorate and that's basically the point i was trying to make in that article saying if republicans want to win in november, pay attention now. jenna: we found your piece in your analysis very interesting. from some of the first races to the year as a whole.

we were talking to political pundits yesterday. what david is saying for the most part is correct. but donald trump is someone we have never seen before. he's reaching out to people who are not involved in the political process and people who have not per is pay thed in see you what. he's somehow doesn't fit the mold. what do you say to that? >> it's possibly true. on the other hand, what i believe is going to happen is that if senator cruz wins in iowa that will change the ballgame in november. politic is quite fluid at this point. voters -- many of the trump voters have democrats, they have not been involved in the political process. it's not clear to me they are well organized in caucus states like iowa. so when trump doesn't win in iowa, what happens to those voters in new hampshire?

does that change their opinion? that's what happened when barack obama upset hillary clinton in iowa everybody thought it was over because he would win in new hampshire where he had been ahead an lost in new hampshire. it's quite volatile when it comes to the election and i don't think mr. trump is a sure thing and he's a relatively new phenomena that we don't know about, but i think in the long run kinds of normal politics come back. >> we'll see where we end up. it's great to have you on the program wp. thank you so much. jon: a san francisco man dies days before his 110th birthday. his connection to one of the deadliest disasters in u.s. history.

a little boy makes a donation from his piggy bank and tonight he's going to the state of the union address. ck. our truck? it's touring across america telling people about idaho potatoes. farmer: let's go boy. again this year the big idaho potato truck is traveling the country spreading the word about heart healthy idaho potatoes and making donations to local charities. excuse me miss, have you seen our truck? you just missed it. ahhh! aw man are you kiddin' me?

jon: the last known survivor of the san francisco tesht quake has died. he passed away in his sleep at 109 sunday. he was born 3 months before the quake and subsequent fires that's destroyed san francisco, killing 3,000 people. the 1906 earthquake remains one of the deadliest disasters in american history. jenna: tonight's state of the union address, a 4-year-old wisconsin boy will be house speaker paul ryan's special guest. he gained national attention when he wanted to use his piggy bank to send care packages to

soldiers overseas for the holidays. his community rallying around him to raise $1,000. logan and his parents will be sitting in the box with paul ryan. it's great to have you all on this special day. logan, i'm waving at you from new york. becky, tell me about how this all came about. >> he got some pocket change from grandpa. when he was getting ready to put it in his piggy bank. he said he wanted to give it to the soldiers because their job isn't very fun so wanted to give them something fun? jenna: logan, where did you couple that idea? >> i don't know.

jenna: i heard your uncle might have been part of the idea. who is your uncle? >> craig. jenna: what's craig's job? >> he was that reasons years ago but he likes to talk about with it logan baits many exciting for little kids. jenna: nick, when you heard yourston made this decision, that he came up with this idea, what did you think? >> i didn't believe it at first. you don't expect to hear that out of a 4-year-old. i kind of looked at him and we didn't think he said the soldiers at first, we thought he said hosaid shoulders. he said they don't have fun over christmas because they are not with hair families. we it on facebook and it took off from there. jenna: what were you able to do with the money you raised?

>> we bought lots of stuff. we ended up doing 17 packages. we got addresses from family and friends. we filled them to the brim. we got suggestions from things most requested from soldiers overseas. logans idea about having fun things, we let him pick out a number of items. jenna: what are some of the fun things you put in the packages. >> there was cars and pez dispensers. jenna: i love those. those are fun things. what is the response he received as people have received these packages? >> we got a couple letters back right away, then actually while we have been in d.c. we got two more packages back. the two we got are actual envelopes, so we have no idea ways in it. we sent self addressed stamped

postcards so we could hear back and do what they -- hear what they do. we are intrigued to get back. we got a post card from one of the soldiers and he flies helicopters. so logan got to look at that and it's been amazing. jenna: i'm glad you are able to have this next amazing experience going to the state of the union. it's nice to know you will be in the crowd tonight. thanks for taking the time to join us. it was great meeting you. i'm waving good-bye to you. can you wave good-bye to your viewers? nice to know little boys like you are out there. congratulations on raising a truly special little guy. >> thank you. jon: supporting the troops at age 4. the power ball drawing just a day away. there is a new app link to it.

jon: "outnumbered" at the top of the hour with harris and andrea. andrea: who must bring their a-game at the big who has the most to lose. harris: a-game is not optional. germany's chancellor says the problem with syrian refugees is out of control. wait all means for the united states. andrea: actress kirstie alley is turning 63 this week.

why she says she's looking for someone 30 years her junior. harris: now back to. >> the young man, jon scott. jenna: a story we have been following on "happening now." ashley olsen, the 35-year-old woman murdered in italy. she was last seen at a club. there was no sign of forced entry into olsen's apartment. her neck was bruised and scratched. jon: an international child exploitation ring busted wide open as the fed convict eight american men and suspects from a wide range of countries connected by webcams. >> the operation subject tremendous fiewng iopen -- oper.

it's a child pornography ring that stretches across the world. the investigation is still going on and more people will be arrested. so far 8 men in the u.s. have been convicted by the feds and the justice department is trying to extradite a south african man who has been sentenced for child pornography to the u.s. 1,600 children have been drawn to pedophiles web site. u.s., canada, sweden, australia and south africa. pedophiles troled popular social

site persuading the children as piers to come to the porn site. they coerces those visiting the site to perform sexually explicit acts that were automatically recorded through the children's web cams. several of the conspirators are still out there. jon: just an awful story. let's hope they get the rest of them. jenna: some new details of isis experimenting with chemical agents. what it means in the fight against terror.

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