bill: what did you say, we play this gig all week? martha: we are here all week, folks. [laughter] bill: we are. martha: we'll see you monday, everybody. have a great day. ♪ ♪ jon: sparks fly on the des moines debate -- jenna: easy enough to say, right? we can start out that way. tripping you up with that. jon: thank goodness it's friday. [laughter] republican presidential candidates square off for the final time before iowa votes on monday. well come to "happening now," i'm jon scott. jenna: we'll say that ten times fast, des moines debate stage. candidates sparred over immigration and national security and each other's records as well, but they safed some fire for democrats as each

candidate made the case for becoming the next commander in chief. >> i'm an establishment because my dad, the greatest man alive, was president of the united states, and my brother who i adore as well, is a fantastic brother, was president. fine, i'll take it. but this election -- [cheers and applause] this election is not about our pedigree, this is an election about people that are really hurting. >> there's the establishment lane, the anti-establishment lane, and then there's the kasich lane. >> and i don't think you have to be a politician to tell truth. in fact, sometimes it's not that way. [applause] and i've had more two a.m. phone calls than everybody here put together making life and death decisions. >> the bulk collection of your phone data, the invasion of your privacy did not stop one terrorist attack. i don't think you have to give up your liberty for a false sense of security. >> right now barack obama is launching between 15 and 30 air attacks a day. he's not arming the kurds. we need to define the enemy, we need to rebuild the military to defeat the enemy.

>> isis is the most dangerous jihadist group in the history of man kind. they are not going to go away on their own. they're not going to turn into stock brokers oversight or open up a chain of car washes. >> there is no one on this stage better prepared to prosecute the case against hillary clinton than i am. the days for the clintons in public housing are over. [cheers and applause] [laughter] jon: and the earlier debate included two potential candidates who have won the last two iowa caucuses on the republican side, rick santorum and mike huckabee shared the stage with carly fiorina and jim gilmore. the lower-polling republican candidates taking aim at hillary clinton, the media and the gop establishment. let's bring in senior political strategist for schoen consulting, also a fox news contributor and a republican strategist. so, tony, from the point of view of a republican, how did it go last night? no donald trump on the stage. what about the others?

>> well, look, i think you've consistently seen even with donald trump on the stage a very strong debate really prosecuting the obama eight years and hillary clinton more than each other. i think we like to always look at the squabbles in between, and certainly that's going to happen in the context of a debate. but i think last night you saw more agreement than disagreement. certainly on immigration you saw some fighting between jeb bush and marco rubio, rubio and ted cruz, but i think overall you are seeing this republican field even with all their differences. you have the libertarians like rand paul, neo-cons like a jeb bush or marco rubio, the constitutional conservative like ted cruz, but they're not that different on some of these major issues. we have rounded that bend of personal attacks, really eclipsing what should be a constructive debate process, and i think last night was a strong showing for many of them. jon: jessica, from the standpoint of a democratic strategist, are you nervous? >> no, definitely not quaking in my heels. i thought it was a great debate.

i thought the donald trump issue was very well handled, and i thought that there was a lot of great policy exchange. i would say that i do feel that there are major differences between these candidates, and i would put, you know, i really liked that governor christie was arguing for the importance of executive experience and that kasich could say that too in talking about consensus building, which is something that jeb bush also talked about from his time in florida. ted cruz, though, is a man unto himself for me. constitutional conservative, what are you want to call him, i call him just awful. i find his temperament incredibly difficult to take, and i thought that he really showed that he needs donald trump to look great. jon: something tells me tony disagrees. [laughter] >> well, first of all, personal insults aside -- >> that was, like -- >> you have bernie sanders and hillary clinton, i wouldn't go bragging about personality, by the way, of our candidates. i think ted cruz took the incoming fire because trump was not at center stage and handled it well. i think his closers are very

strong, but you could obviously tell that cruz was prepared for this. here is what i'm looking for, jon, marco rubio has consistently had the best debate performances, last night was no different. but there's been no traction afterwards. we're going to see in very short order if rubio was able to gain anything from another positive debate experience now without trump having taken some of the oxygen from the room. jon: it was clever, i thought, of cruz to stand up and say i'm a maniac and everybody else on the stage is fat and ugly and, ben, you're a terrible surgeon. >> it was smart. a couple other jokes he had obviously planned fell a bit flatter, but he was definitely trying to occupy that space, and i think that he did well there. i think that immigration exchange with marco rubio, they both just looked like flip-floppers, which i don't think is a great thing. and then bringing jeb bush into it and said, well, you did too, marco. you know, i -- that issue, i don't know how salient it is for voters n. a world where donald trump is leading the polls, i think people are really concerned with where you are right now, what your policies

are this moment because donald trump used to be a liberal. >> and obama and hillary clinton were opposed to same-sex marriage when they ran for president in 2008 -- >> absolutely true. >> and people evolve. i think i christie sees this point probably better than most in that you're allowed to change your mind, you just have to own up to it -- >> and explain why you're doing it. john kasich also touched upon that and can say things i've actually balanced a budget. these are things you have to do. jon: it did seem to me that kasich had a better night than he has in the past, in my view, jeb bush, chris christie -- >> and rand paul. jon: and rand paul. >> christie's always had good performances. bush and kasich are graded on a curve. i think bush had a great good night, hardly the best on the stage. i think what you're seeing, jon, though is the republicans, and you've seen this in the last couple of debates, candidates really training on hillary clinton and barack obama. they know that their base does

not want an ugly primary. they want to hear the case that these guys could beat hillary clinton in a general election matchup, and i think many of the people on the stage scored well on that measure. jon: one question about the guy who wasn't on the stage last night. donald trump did his own thing and now he's apparently gone off to new hampshire. >> right. jon: he's not even in iowa this morning. the folks in iowa want you to stay there and show them some love. >> i'm sure he'll be back. he moves very quickly on his jet. but donald trump, he knows he's seen some movement in the new hampshire polls. john kasich did well in a poll recently, marco rubio moving up, so i think he wants to shore it up. he's up seven in iowa in the real clear politics average -- jon: but those voters have to show up. >> they have to show up, and i think that's really hard. ed rollins was talking the other day, i think the most on the republican side, 120,000 is the highest number of people who caucus. >> donald trump's been the king midas of this campaign season. i'm not sure skipping this iowa debate was a good move. this is a caucus system.

you really need to work the grassroots til the very end, you have to turn out a finite number of voters to very specific places at very specific times -- >> have to turn out people who don't usually vote, noneducated whites that he needs. that's who his coalition -- >> that sounded a little judgmental. >> no -- not college-educated white people. i'm white, i think it's fine. swrn jon we'll get boo that another time. -- into that another time. jessica, tony, thank you both. we also want to hear from you. how do you think last night's debates will impact iowa voters when they head to the caucuses on monday? our live chat up and running, go to "happening foxnews.com/happed get your thoughts into the conversation. jenna: google revealing more about the top trending moments and what they could mean for the race going forward. shannon bream is live from des moines, iowa, with more. shannon? >> reporter: hi, jenna. it's been interesting all throughout the day yesterday to watch what kind of questions had about the candidates, what they

wanted to know about them, the issues. google trends data helped us to track all of that, so let's take a look at last night when people who were following the debate were on google, and they were asked what for them was the top issue that they're concerned about as a potential voter. national security was at the top of the list with 37% followed closely by the economy at 34%. top two issues. and then followed by gun control, immigration and entitlements. as i said, we could track very specific things, too, about the candidates, and one of the interesting things was throughout the night to watch what were the top questions or trends or queries that people had when they went on google during the debate to ask about different candidates? we've picked one, we're looking at marco rubio. the top three questions that people had that they were googling about him during the debate, number one, how old is marco rubio? what does marco rubio believe in? and how does marco rubio feel about guns? interestingly enough, throughout the day we saw other queries about him. people wanted to know where he

had played college football, they wanted to know about his wife. all the candidates we saw interesting, different queries ab weight, where they went to school, where they were born. but we can also measure when there's a spike in activity, so last night during the closing statements during the debate, you'll remember that dr. ben carson decided to quote the preamble to the constitution. when he did that at that moment, google was able to track a spike 1600% spike in people looking for the preamble to the constitution. so it's clear that people are very engaged when they're watching these contests and these debates that they are looking at the same time online to look for clarity about issues. we saw spikes in things like gop establishment last night and also amnesty. it's a way to have that second screen experience. and by the way, the most important question that they asked last night on google, of course, for everybody who was tuning in, who do you think won the debate? marco rubio came out on top, i believe, with 29%. we'll be tracking more data throughout the day, looking ahead to new hampshire and south carolina as well to get a peek

at some of the trends there as we move to those states next. jenna? jenna: interesting to see what people are googling. shannon, appreciate it. jon: and right now everybody's googling shannon bream. jenna: could happen. jon: yeah, i think so. those three dangerous inmates who escaped from a maximum security jail in california, they are still on the run this morning, but authorities did make an arrest. we'll tell you who's now accused of helping these three get out. and the affluenza teen making his first court appearance very soon in texas. what a judge could decide any minute now in ethan couch's case. plus, the fbi releasing graphic footage showing officers fatally shooting one of the armed occupiers in oregon. how that deadly encount canner played out. smoked a lot and quit a lot, but ended up nowhere. now i use this. the nicoderm cq patch, with unique extended release technology, helps prevent the urge to smoke all day. i want this time to be my last time. that's why i choose

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have had help. a teacher who taught english at the maximum security jail has been arrested. she is believed to have supplied them with maps. the three dangerous fugitives could still be in california and might be living out of a stolen van. four and a half years after lauren spierer disappeared, police and fbi agents converged on a home and barn in martinsville about 21 miles north of where she was last seen. the activity is reportedly connected to the search for lauren who disappeared in june 2011 after a night out with friends. former nfl player derek lovell is sentenced in a case that involves international drug trafficking, sports gambling and money laundering. authorities accuse lovell of selling drugs in arizona for a group believed to have threatened debtors by showing them beheading videos. lovell and 21 others were charged thursday in a sweeping federal indictment.

jenna: well, the fbi releasing graphic video showing tuesday's traffic stop that ended in that fatal shooting of one of the protesters in that oregon wildlife refuge. the aerial footage shows a white truck trying to speed away from officers before plowing into a snow bank. you see it here. a man gets out of the truck with his hands up, and then he appears to reach for his jacket pocket where authorities say he was carrying a semiautomatic handgun. we're freezing that moment right here. officers responded with lethal force, and that brings us toed. claudia cowan has the latest chapter in all of this. >> reporter: good morning, jenna. you know, there's a real pressure being applied here to the fbi here in burns. the locals don't like their roadblocks, there's a feeling that they've allowed this occupation up at the wildlife refuge to continue for far too long, almost a month, and after tuesday's deadly confrontation, rumors were flying that police

had committed cold-blooded murder. so the fbi released this video, even posted it on to youtube so that people could see for themselves what happened. the video shows 55-year-old lavoy finicum, one of the group's more fervent spokesmen, either trying to get away from police or provoking them. when he appears to reach into his jacket for a weapon, federal agents say a state trooper fired back. >> on at least two occasions, finicum reaches his right hand toward a pocket on the left inside portion of his jacket. he did have a loaded .9 mm semiautomatic handgun in that pocket. >> reporter: finicum, seen here two weeks ago, vowed he would die before going to jail. several others in his car were taken into custody without incident. mean time, four holdouts want to leave but only if no one gets arrested. they're also posting videos like this one showing a husband and wife dancing around cars. they currently have enough

bandwidth and power to charge their electronics. the group also had explosives, night vision goggles and weapons, and that if they didn't get the fight they wanted out there, they would bring the fight to town. the group's leader, ammon bundy, has repeatedly told his followers to go home. he and several others are due to appear in federal court today in portland for a detention hearing. so far 11 people have been arrested on conspiracy charges and, jenna, a federal judge has said no one will be released so long as this occupation here continues. back to you. of. jenna: we'll see what happens next, claudia. thank you. jon: well, iran seems to be thumbing its nose at the united states after another incident in international waters. we'll tell you about that. plus, the cancer that is isis now spreading to libya. our next guest discusses what action the u.s. should be taking against the terror group there.

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jon: right now the u.s. navy confirms an unarmed iranian drone flew over a u.s. aircraft carrier stationed in the persian gulf. a navy commander telling fox news the drone flew directly over the uss harry truman, and a french aircraft carrier as well. iranian state television releasing video of the encounter from january 12th. the uss harry truman is launching airstrikes and supporting operations against isis in iraq and syria. this is just the latest naval incident between iran and the u.s. including test rocket launches and the brief capture of american sailors. ♪ ♪ >> blood establishing the installations where they train people, they're welcoming foreign fighters to flock there

the way in years past they did in syria and iraq. we don't want to be on a glide slope to a situation like syria can and iraq. that's the reason why we're watching it that closely, that's the reason why we develop options for what we might do in the future. jenna: well, that was defense secretary ash carter discussing the growth of isis in libya. the president meeting with national security advisers this week on stepping up the fight in libya which, of course, libya is a country that doesn't have a functioning central government. civil unrest in the north african nation following the overthrow of moammar gadhafi has created, as some have described, an ideal safe haven for isis. should the terror group be forced out of iraq and syria, or even if they're not. that's also the concern. joining me now, lieutenant colonel mitch utterback. why is it so important to watch libya? strategically? >> well, strategically it's isis' second front.

it's literally an isis colony. they're a great military, strategic power. they have a great ability to figure out what's going to happen next and think ahead in the future. they know that libya's an ungoverned country. massive oil revenue and oil resources there. you know, it's a strategic and it's a financial safe haven from which they can launch and plan attacks, certainly, into europe and eventually into the united states. we've got to pay attention to it, and it's great to hear that we are. jenna: so close to europe, as you mentioned. no central government, we do know a lot about the militias that are in control of different parts of the country or at least the territory at this time, and we can't help but think about benghazi as well through all of this and some of our experiences there post-gadhafi. so what's the risk for our operators? because the thinking is that there will be some special operations that are going to be ongoing in that country or at least being set up at this time. >> the risk for our men and women that will be operating there, intelligence operators, special operations, the few numbers, you know? there aren't going to be that many of them there.

not a major, quick reaction force that's going to be able to take care of them. years after benghazi, there's probably still not a lot of firepower there that can come to the assistance of our intelligence operators or our troops if they get in trouble. jenna: so what do we do? >> we send more. we really ask our european allies and our north african allies to contribute more literally intelligence operators and special operations troops and get 'em in there. we need to saturate that country to determine where the threat is coming from, who the isis affiliates are are, who the isis fighters are and begin targeting them immediately. but it really has to be help from north africa and europe as well, because they face a greater immediate threat. jenna: we'll see if they're as anxious to help us as they were when gadhafi was in power. we did have a coalition then. congressman ryan zinn key is a former navy seal, and he had something interesting to say about libya. he says what i see happening is disturbing particularly with the

rules of engagement and this administration's refusal to put a force package in that will move the needle or aid victory in our lifetime. he's talking about the rules of engagement even if we get to go, what that looks like. they were a topic of the debate last night, i just want to play a little sound from that. >> and we need to be focused and list the rule of engagement so we're not sending our fighting men and women into combat with their arms tied behind their back. >> we need to arm directly the kurds, embed our troops with the iraqi military, reengage with the sunni trial leaders, get the lawyers off the damn backs of the military once and for all. jenna: you've done three tours in afghanistan, one tour in iraq. what's your reaction, your take on what was said in the debate and also how it applies to any of our missions going forward? >> it's great to hear a potential president lessening rules of engagement. they're one of our classified parts of our operations, but they literally come from the president himself.

it really started in afghanistan years ago. we can't have any civilian casualties. what we see across the board is a legacy of that. so a relaxing of the rules of engagement where you can more quickly target and there is fewer levels of permission, a tactical guy on the ground, a staff sergeant, a lieutenant from the seal team, he needs to be able to say we need to take these guys out. jenna: as of right now, what is it like? >> well, it's a couple levels up. jenna: so it's taking a long time to be able to make some of the decisions for the people on the ground that are con to fronting the enemy. -- confronting the enemy. >> that's right. and some of those decisions come through electronic means, radios, cameras. sometimes equipment fails and a decision doesn't get made for simply a means of communication breaks down. if we give the boots on the ground guy the ability to make that decision, we're going to see more progress. jenna: and, of course, we don't want to see civilian casualties, but you're also at war, and there are risks involved.

>> that's right. jenna: great to have you on the program. jon? jon: u.s. officials say activity at a north korean facility could indicate that rogue nation is planning a long-range missile test. the suspicions are based on activity detected at a satellite launching station on north korea's western coast including the arrival of what could be rocket fuel and potentialmissil. japan is putting its military on alert, ordering it to be ready to destroy any missile fired by north korea that threatens the country. the u.s. currently has roughly 30,000 military personnel stationed just across the border in south korea. jenna: well, a day after arriving back on u.s. soil, ethan couch heads to court. what a texas judge could decide today about the teenager who killed four people in a drunk driving clash and used the affluenza defense to get off easy, some say. plus, is the media exaggerating the threat bernie sanders poses to hillary clinton? hmm. we're going to talk about that next.

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worth, texas, with the latest. a lot happened between then and where we are today. >> reporter: exactly, jenna. this is a detention hearing, and we should tell you, we've been here all morning, and we've been waiting to see if tonya couch -- ethan's mother who is out on bond with an ankle monitor -- would show up. we haven't seen her go in, but there are no cameras allowed in the courtroom. that hearing supposed to be starting any minute now. of it's not supposed to last very long, it's very straightforward, and it will be the first time that ethan couch has been before a judge since he was extradited from mexico and arrived back here in texas yesterday. that judge today has three options to consider; keep ethan in juvie jail, transfer him to the adult inmate population where his mother spent some time behind bars when she got back to texas or house arrest is even a possibility, released with a gps ankle monitor. here's what sheriff dee anderson

says he'd like to see happen: >> we'll respect whatever decision the court makes, and we have to do that. certainly, my preference would be to have him locked up in the adult jail since he's a 19-year-old adult in the state of texas. >> reporter: february 19th will be the so-called affluenza teen's next court appearance, and that is a big one because it is where the same judge will consider moving ethan's case out of the juvenile court system into adult court. couch's lawyer, meantime, releasing this statement, and i'm quoting here: we are optimistic that going forward ethan will comply with all court-imposed terms and conditions and that he will successfully complete his term of probation. so the saga continues. we'll keep you posted here from texas, jenna. jenna: we appreciate it, casey. thank you very much. jon: we are just three days away from the iowa caucuses. on the democratic side, there is

a sense among political watchers that bernie sanders has the momentum against hillary clinton. that's reflected in the headlines as well. but the showdown between the two candidates is also sparking speculation about whether the media are making this closer than it actually is. this article in "the hill" newspaper caught our spy entitled "is media driving bernie momentum"? it goes on to say, quote: ironically, just weeks ago it was sanders' supporters who were complaining about the media. his campaign complained about a bernie blackout. since then the media narrative has shifted to sanders' rise and whether clinton is set to repeat her 2008 failure against then-senator barack obama. here to talk about it, judith miller, pulitzer prize-winning investigative reporter, author and fox news contributor. also, lynn sweet, bureau chief for the "chicago sun-times". we'll let you talk first, lynn, so you can get your jaw muscles working. it looks cold out there.

[laughter] what do you think? >> well, i'm dressed in my chicago warm. jon: oh, okay. you're used to the weather. what do you think? do those who say that the media are favoring bernie sanders, do they have a point? >> no. bernie sanders earned the attention he's getting. he did it three ways, by just attracting massive crowds, he did it by doing spectacular fundraising without any formal effort, and then, yes, he's doing it in the polls. if rick santorum or jeb bush or chris christie hit any of those metrics, they would be getting more media attention as well. jon: what do you think, judy? is the media unfair, is that what's pushing this bernie momentum? >> no, i totally agree with lynn. look, this is a guy whom the media virtually ignored even as he was beginning to gather the attention of thousands of young

people all across the country, even as those feel the bern signs were going up all over the country. if anything, you can fault the media for not paying attention early enough to bernie sanders -- >> yeah. >> -- and overestimating hillary clinton's attraction to voters. it's now become pretty obvious she has some problems. if anything, the media were late to the game. but, of course, everybody loves to bash the media, so we've got to blame minute for this. let's blame us. >> i want to underscore that. this is a bash the media routine when you have nothing else to say. for example, if martin o'malley, the oft-ignored third democratic candidate, if all of a sudden he started attracting crowds in the thousands, of course everyone would be starting to pay more attention. sometimes campaigns have to earn attention. they just don't get it. jon: there were plenty of complaints against the media displayed last night on both

stages, or on any stage in both events at the republican event. i want to play some of that sound for you now. >> you know, listening to what your network was talking about prior to this race, this debate reminded me of the coverage that many on this floor are getting. this race, this debate was called the undercard debate. the undercard debate. it wasn't advertised significantly. in fact, the entire hour lead-up to this, there was no conversation about any of the four people on this debate stage. and that is the chronic situation. >> the last four questions have been, rand, please attack ted, marco, please attack ted, jeb, please attack ted. if you guys ask one more mean question, i may have to leave the stage. [laughter] >> well, don't worry, i'm not leaving the stage no matter what you ask me. jon: all right. so do they have a point in lynn, to you first. >> no. grow up. [laughter] jon: all right.

>> and -- jon: simple and sweet. >> these are candidates -- well, and i fear that we might all be in violent agreement on this one. [laughter] not all campaigns are equal. and, now, you know, the good news is in our system many people on the republican side are running for president. and if they had, in an ideal world, everybody would be on the same stage and get actual the same amount of time, i suppose. but it doesn't happen that way because of the reality that it's just a harder format. and it is sometimes candidates have a point where some people get an abundance of attention in a debate, but if all your campaign can do is just say blame the media or everybody's inviting, you know, questions about me, well, that's their job. it was the job that senator cruz -- of senator cruz last night to not complain about the questions, but to deal with them. jon: rick santorum, we had him

in studio, by the way, just about two weeks ago for a live interview. he's complaining that we called it the undercard debate, which is true, but it's based on the polling. now, i don't know how else you're going to try to figure out who it is that viewers want to see and hear from the most. >> exactly. i mean, i think this election has been pretty fair. it is based on a mix of polls, and the fact of the matter is these guys and carly fiorina have not been able to pull their weight in terms of attracting the kind of support from the people that would get them onto that main stage. but, you know, before this year they wouldn't have had a platform at all. now people are beginning to hear what they think and who they like and who they dislike. that opportunity didn't even exist. so in a year in which the media have helped create a man like donald trump by giving him a lot of free publicity because he says outrageous things, in the year of the kind of media creation of someone who wouldn't

have even been on the stage in only eight years ago, i think it's a little rich to start complaining about media not paying attention. jon: let's take a quick peek at -- >> i quickly make one more point? may i? jon: very quickly. >> i'm in des moines, and it's the proud home of the iowa cubs. they don't complain that they're not in wrigley field. they own it, and they're proud of it, okay? be a proud underdog. jon: there you go. you mentioned donald trump, judy. the guy who really has mastered the media this cycle. he is in nashua, new hampshire. this is video from just a little while ago. got out of iowa quickly. we presume he will be going back there, but what do you think about the way his whole boycott and subsequent event was covered? judy? >> look, i just think his position was absolutely ridiculous from the beginning. it was very important for fox news to establish that it is the news organizations that determine who asks questions and not the candidates.

i think his outrageous demands for money for this or money for that far exceed what is normally acceptable in politics. i think he has played this for all it's worth, and i think that fox news did exactly the right thing by inviting him to appear if he wants to but understanding that he could not control who asked the questions. and you know what? i watched a little last night during the commercials of the debate -- [laughter] i watched donald trump. and it was so unbelievably boring. and even he didn't look like he wanted to be there and made several allusions to that. so i hope he's learned a lesson. jon: even said he'd rather be at the debate. lynn, your take very quickly. >> i was there, and he didn't even, you know, he hand picked some reporters for a so-called, for a press conference. but on his plane on the tarmac in des moines, you know, there was a file room at the event at drake university, he could have had a press event there, and

remarkably at this event that was there, he hardly spoke compared to the others -- jon: so you're saying -- >> he was like the host of a telethon. jon: you're saying he was hiding from the media? >> no, well, i think he wanted -- it's manipulative, and i'm not saying i would have turned down an invite to go talk to him on the plane, i'm just explaining his m.o. in this case. jon: all right. >> i want to underscore that $5 million request he made of fox news, that, i think, is a story that will have legs including his spreading of charitable money to veterans' organizations in iowa, new hampshire no matter how worthy the cause. there are certain ways that you can use money in political campaigns. this is worth a discussion. jon: that story's gathering some steam. lynn, judy, we have to say good-bye. >> thanks. jenna: starting monday the voters get their say, and next jerry seib with "the wall street journal" joining us with his reasons why the presidential race could look very different in just a few weeks. you're here to buy a car.

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♪ ♪ jenna: well, donald trump still holding a commanding lead in the polls three days before the iowa caucuses and just over a week before the new hampshire primaries. hillary clinton leading bernie sanders in iowa by a small margin while sanders holds a big lead in new hampshire. clinton leads in the national polls as well, but it's a long road to november, and anything can happen, as i know you know. jerry seib writes today, quote, unlike a general election campaign which is a long and slow slog to a single destination point, primary season is a series of rapid-fire twists and turns which are harder still to predict. the six reasons why this race may look different in six weeks. jerry, one of the points you make is there's a big difference for voters between shopping and buying what do you mean by that. >> well, look, i mean, people have been venting in a way through their attendance at rallies and through what they say to pollsters, basically, we're unhappy with the establishment, we don't place

much stock in experience. that's all good until you have to walk into the voting booth or into the caucus in iowa and cast a real vote that matters for something. and will the attitude be different when it really counts as opposed to when people are just blowing off steam. that's at least a possibility here, and i think we should be aware both that some of the trump supporters are not regular caucus-goers, maybe they won't show up, and maybe some people who are plague around with -- playing around with voting for a donald trump or bernie sanders will pull back when the moment comes. jenna: do you think voters in these early states are voting to say this is the person i want to see as president, or this is the person i want to see in the race? >> i actually think they're voting to say here's the person i want to be president, because everybody thinks their vote is worth that much. but they also know that the way they vote determines who survives out of iowa, new hampshire and moves on, and perceptions matter in this game. for example, small example, a strong third place finish in iowa by marco rubio would look a lot different than a weak third place finish by marco rubio in iowa. so we'll see how that plays out

in the pair sense game after the -- perception game. jenna: you had an interesting example of how bill clinton played that game. tell our viewers about how that impacted his race. >> in 1992 bill clinton looked like he was in a lot of trouble. he didn't compete much in iowa, got less than 3% of the vote and came in second place in new hampshire, you know? there was the favorite son running, but bill clinton ran into some trouble because of questions about his marital fidelity. he finished second in new hampshire, he managed to portray that as, basically, a comeback victory even though he didn't win. that perception took hold, and it gave him just enough fuel to get to the south where he had more strength, and then he was on his way to the nomination and the presidency. so how people handle adversity really does matter here. jenna: i also like this point that you make, and this is really key: candidates' performance under stress matters, you write, and we're only now about to find out how candidates handle real stress. i would think the last few weeks have been stressful, but you say

now is game time, and this is where we need to watch. >> oh, yeah. there's nothing like the stress between the weeks of iowa and new hampshire if things aren't going well for you. my favorite example of a campaign i covered was in 1988 when then-vice president george h.w. bush lost in iowa. people really doubted whether he was going to be the heir to ronald reagan. he didn't panic, he got his guys together and said no back biting, no recriminations, we're going to go to new hampshire. governor john sununu's going to help us win there, that's what happened. he was on his way to the nomination. so being cool under pressure is an important attribute for a president but also a candidate. [laughter] jenna: and really for anyone. it's a really interesting example, and we'll be watching to see who is handling the stress well. >> exactly. jenna: jerry, great to see you. thank you so much. >> sure. jon: just how much would someone pay for a car pope francis used? we will soon know as one of the pope mobiles that the pope used on his trip to the united states goes up for auction. hi i'm heather cox

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♪ ♪ jon: let's check out what's ahead on "outnumbered" at the top of the hour. what do you have? harris: it's a fine friday. we are just three days out from the iowa caucuses, and the gloves came off in last night's gop debate. we'll bring you the most fiery moments and talk winners and losers. andrea: plus, reports that some of the last and most controversial batch of hillary clinton's e-mails are set to be released today. but the state department wants to delay releasing a big chunk of them, so what is in those messages, harris? be. harris: friday news dump, we call it. and just when you thought it couldn't get any worse, americans say they hate the federal government more than ever. andrea: i do. well, our one lucky guy is the perfect person to ask. utah congressman jason chaffetz is here. we'll see you on "outnumbered"

top of the hour. jon: looking forward to it. see you then. jenna: you might be in the market for a pope mobile, and if you are, you're in luck. one of two fiats that the pope used on his trip to the u.s. are up for auction at the philadelphia auto show. lauren green is live with the details for us. hi, lauren. >> reporter: hey, jenna, well, you know, someone tonight will be this car's proud owner. i have to show you this. pope francis always sat in the back right seat, that's where he got in and out of. normally this 2000 fiat 500l would sell for around $20,000, but this one will likely go for much, much higher. it was a well-known sight, pope francis get anything and out of the small fiat on his visit to philadelphia last september for the world meeting of families. the pontiff chose the iconic car in keeping with his no-frills style and care for the environment. the vehicles were gifts for the pope's vis. the archdiocese ever thought the fiats would come back to

philadelphia. >> it's the gift that keeps giving. the visit of pope francis has had such an impact in philadelphia, and these fiats and this action, it's just another way for philadelphia to say take a moment and think about what the visit of pope francis meant to all of us. it's really incredible. >> reporter: now, the fiats will be the main attraction here at the philadelphia auto show, one being auctioned off tonight at a black tie affair where 4,000 are expected to attend, plus there'll be bidding online. predictions have it could go as high as into the six figures, and the money raised here will benefit several charities in the, several catholic charities in the philadelphia area. nan-and-a-half sounds like a great cause. lauren, thank you. jon: i rented one of those exact cars in italy this summer with my kids. the pope hadn't driven it -- jenna: how did it go? did you like the way it handled? perhaps you president in a bid. [laughter] jon: new next hour, a

multimillion dollar dream home leveled before then owner could move in. it's the latest home in california to have the earth cave in beneath it. ..

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jon: see you in an hour. jenna: "outnumbered" starts now. >> this is "outnumbered," and i am andrea tantaros 10 years harris falkner, co-hosted after the bell on fox business, melissa frances, nationally syndicated radio shows and fox news contributor megan mccain and one lucky guy from the great state of utah, chairman of the house oversight and government reforms committee jason chase fits is here. you are "outnumbered," welcome back. thanks for making time, this is a big political day and we can't wait to get your thoughts because you have an important role. >> i am honored to be there. we hava