eastern. tomorrow we're back to 2:00 p.m. eastern, our regular time. we're going to have alex conet from the rubio campaign. we'll have the power index, very important on monday. caucus voting tomorrow. thanks for being part of "the real story." bill and martha live from iowa. thank you, gretchen. this is, what, a year of campaigning, planning, fundraising, all comes down to this. we are one day until the iowa caucus here, and the candidates have got the state covered, making their cases to caucus goers all across iowa. it's like one event after the other after the other. as we say hello, welcome to a special caucus edition of "america's election we are live in des moines. i'm william hemmer. >> yes, you are. and i'm martha mccallum. so the final poll that everyone was waiting for is out.

it shows a really tight race that is unfolding here in iowa. donald trump leads it. he's got 28% in the bloomberg des moines poll that we are looking at. ted cruz is in second place. he's got 23% there. marco rubio is at 15%. dr. ben carson, the last person in double digits in this particular poll is at 10%. the rest of the gop field in single digits after all of the very hard work in iowa. carl cameron live in cedar rapids right now. trump and cruz in a dead heat. where are they putting their energy and their presence today to shake that up? >> well, they're virtually tied. that poll says that about 45% of the electorate can actually change its mind in the gop caucuses. so it is very, very volatile. trump and cruz are locked in a very difficult battle. trump's been going after cruz for a mailing that he sent out

that in many minds is meant to suppress the vote. keep the turnout low. that would help cruz. if it's high, it would help trump. and trump is essentially saying that ted cruz is dishonest, trying to suppress votes, and has undertaken a whole host of attacks on trump, that trump says is an example of cruz's dishonesty. watch. >> what he doesn't say is that he filled out a financial disclosure form, personal financial disclosure form. and on the form, he wants to pretend he's robin hood. he's going to protect everybody from wall street. big, bad wall street. he forgot to mention that he's borrowed a lot of money at almost no interest from goldman sachs. >> trump's making the argument that cruz should have disclosed that to the federal election commission and not just put it on his own personal financial disclosures as a senator. in response, ted cruz has done something that no other candidate has done in this race today. he has gone after trump's

finances. mr. trump in the past has been particularly sensitive when people have questioned his wealth and success. here's ted cruz doing exactly that. >> if you look at his financial disclosure, he owes at least $480 million right now and it could be billions. >> most of the time, candidates in the last two days before any election really focus on trying to bring people to the polls with a positive message. trump and cruz are staying negative and there's no indication it's going to stop. martha, bill? >> so they locked horns at this point. marco rubio, a lot of buzz about him. they're trying to manage the expectations at this point, because word is he may do better than expected out there. where is he today? where is his focus out there, carl? >> big crowds. it turns out marco rubio has a mailing of his own. one in which it's a voter report

card. they suggest it is not like the one ted cruz gave, which had an official appearance to it. they argue that they do it right and they aren't trying to intimidate voters. having said that, marco is the candidate who is on the stump at least very positive and trying to get people out to the polls. watch. >> i'm asking you to caucus for me tomorrow night. because if i'm our nominee, number one, i will unite this party. we have our differences. we're having a debate now on this campaign, a back and forth, a lot of last-minute attacks that are almost always false. they wait until the last minute to say it's probably not true. but in the end, we still have to be united. we cannot win if we are divided. >> rubio does appear to have some momentum. but he's very aggressively down playing expectations, saying that ted cruz is the obvious frontrunner, that he has the better organization and has spent more money here than rubio

has. and rubio's campaign really intensified in the last couple of weeks. but prior to that, he was not one of the candidates who spent the lion's share of his time in iowa. >> it's an interesting dance at this point. >> for his keen analysis live from washington, newt gingrich, former speaker of the house to weigh in on this. >> i think every four years, we say oh, we've never seen an election like it. i'm certain you miss iowa this time around. you said this is utterly unpredictable. i don't think that's inaccurate, mr. speaker. >> for keen analysis, carl cameron is much closer to what's going on than i am. and he has been an amazing analyst over the years. >> he'd probably agree with you too on that. >> i would say a couple things. the biggest thing to me is if you back out of the details and look at the poll writ large, you have 61% going to trump, cruz,

and carson. that means 61% goes to 63 if you add in fiorina, are going to people who are by definition outsiders. that should say something big to washington about how the republican base feels about the way the party is not changing the country. that's part one. i think in both races, it's a little tricky, having lived through this myself four years ago. like a really wild ride at the amusement park. you had, for example, a couple years ago santorum suddenly surged in the last weekend. went from 8% or 9%, to more carrying the state by a narrow margin. you had a few years later, edwards comes out of nowhere, and edwards and rubio in a sense were very similar candidates. they were surrounded by people attacking each other. folks finally got fed up.

so rubio may overperform the poll come tomorrow night. you've got trump attacking cruz. cruz attacking trump. and you may well have the average iowan going come on, guys. in that context, what rubio is doing is a very calculated effort, which could easily make him the sort of leading candidate to take on trump when you get beyond iowa. >> you said that cruz's campaign for the moment rivals mitt romney's bid in 2012. what does that mean? is that what you're hearing? is that the campaign he's running? what is that? >> if you have -- with all due respect to mitt who i fought pretty hard to stop but couldn't stop, if you have the money, which cruz has raised, and you have a very professional, very solid organization, you'd have to say -- in a normal year, you'd have to say that cruz will

slightly outperform the last iowa poll, because he has a lot better organization turning people out. what you don't know in this particular year is whether the sheer phenomena of trump, and the degree to which the size of his crowds, the level of enthusiasm -- we have a personal friend who waited for two hours at the university of northern iowa in the cold just to see him. i mean, those folks are going to go caucus. so you don't know whether the energy of trump offsets the organization of cruz, but you've got to give ted cruz a lot of credit. he put together the most professional organization on the republican side in iowa. and it's certainly a substantial advantage going into these last 48 hours. >> on the republican side, we had a front page on our website trump versus cruz, and maybe that's the way it goes. maybe there's another lane out there. but you had recently said that trump has mastered the kardashian model of social media. >> sure. >> and because he has had that

effect, he's left everybody else behind. in 2016, is that an effective way to run a campaign? or is that the way you need to do it right now? >> i think he's a phenomenon. i think normal candidates who went out and tried to do that would get no attention. you have to be a guy who wrote his first best-selling book in the '80s, who was on the cover of "time" magazine in '89. i think his first interview with oprah in the '80s. owned miss universe. think about all the things trump was before he announced. so trump -- and he has an easy name. trump is a name you can capture pretty easily. so he has figured out that he can tweet -- he gets up in the morning, he tweets for a little while, then he calls into "fox & friends", then he thinks about doing some stuff on facebook. then he thinks about doing a

press event. and he may go do a show in the evening. it's all intuitive. it's the opposite of corporate structured plan behavior. >> i think the word intuitive is very applicable here, because you don't just learn that. you either see it and do it, or you don't. thank you, mr. speaker. appreciate your time today. we'll see how right you are tomorrow night. newt gingrich in washington. >> all right, take care. >> that is for sure. interesting to hear from newt on this. the republicans scrambling for position. the candidates in the middle of the pack are all fighting for a place in that top tier coming out of iowa. byron york is chief political correspondent for the washington examiner and a fox news contributor. great to see you here, as always. >> thank you, martha. >> you look at the history of this, how accurate -- and let's put up that new des moines poll that we talked about earlier on in the program. how accurate is it typically, and santorum really broke the

model. what can we apply to it this time? >> if we knew that the poll right now was correct, i guess everybody could just go home. in 2012, we looked back, the poll was very, very correct on where mitt romney turned up, where ron paul turned up, where newt gingrich turned up, but it was way, way off for rick santorum. rick santorum was at 15% in that last poll. a couple of days later in the caucuses, he was at 24.6%. just this much ahead of mitt romney and he won. you go back to anne seltzer, kind of legendary in political circles. he said it was the time they saw a surge beginning. so the question is, is somebody surging now? all we know is that she said she saw no search surge for anybody. and that does include marco

rubio. >> fascinating. sort of anecdotally, what you hear out there is that rubio is getting some attention. but what is so different about this time around? obviously rick santorum did very well with the evangelical vote. but there's a feeling that that vote this time around could be divided. because you've got trump evangelicals, who are very different from cruz evangelicals. >> it is not at all monolithic. last time around, 57% of the republicans who took part in the caucus called themselves evangelicals. probably similar to that now. rick santorum won among those people. but guess who was second. it was ron paul. and then mitt romney. this is not a monolithic group. in my covering of the campaigns here in iowa, if you go to a ted cruz rally, you'll see him make very open appeals to evangelicals. he'll be quoting scripture. he'll be saying we should awaken the body of christ so we may pull the country back from the abyss. it's very vivid. you go to donald trump rallies, sometimes in the same place, and

there's nothing. there is no religious content. >> yesterday he put out a video showing the bible that his mother gave him as a child, and that she wrote his name and address inside. >> he's brought that around a couple of times to iowa. but i think you really cannot say he's made a very religious appeal. if you talk to the trump people, they say evangelical voters, they want a job. they want to destroy isis. they want to secure the border. in other words, they agree with a lot of the donald trump agenda so they will support him. it's not just a religious thing. >> do you think the trump support is as strong as it appears in these numbers? when you look at his organization, you look at his group that he has here, do you feel the presence of that anywhere near what you see with cruz? >> not at all. ted cruz is a very, very strong, conventional organization here, say they have 12,000 volunteers in iowa. they have 1,800 precinct captains. they rented dorms for volunteers

from texas. >> is it secret? >> exactly. >> it's invisible? where is it? >> where is it? so is this just a big misdirection campaign? >> maybe it's all at the rally. i mean, maybe it's what you see when you go to that rally. maybe they're saying we don't need that kind of structure. we have enthusiasm and social media, as newt was just saying. >> a couple of weeks ago, he held a rally at clear lake. and i was there. it was zero degrees beginning of the rally. people stood in line all the way around the building. when we left, it was minus 2, dark, and windy. they waited a long time to get into that rally. i think a lot of people say if they'll endure that to see donald trump, they'll come out to caucus. >> yeah. tom brokaw mentioned that the celebrity culture, that he is reflective of this culture that we live in now, that wants to know that person over time. as newt was just pointing out,

he had a magazine, a show. they feel that they know him regardless of the fact that he hasn't spent the time that these other folks have going from diner to church to diner. >> no. a typical ted cruz day is five, six, seven events. driving 30 miles or so in between them. donald trump flies in. a big day is two rallies. usually it's just one rally. but he knew coming in, trump knew coming in, that he had 100% name recognition. have you seen a five-minute biographical spot introducing you to donald trump? he doesn't have to do that. all the other candidates did have to do that. >> if there is a surprise lane tomorrow, who do you think inhabits it? >> well, it's got to come i think from this top four. we have trump, cruz, rubio, and carson is up there, too. i think it would have to come from rubio. right now, he's at 5%.

he's up three percentage points from the last time "the des moines register" did a poll. that's not exactly a big surge. >> byron, thanks so much. >> interesting stuff, byron. i did my headquarters tour. and at the trump campaign, this is what you get on the way out. you really can't get in. they stop at the front door. >> people stop you at the front door. it's understandable. >> you're not alone! i'm reading this. this goes to the point you're making about whether or not people turn out, etc. it is built entirely on person-to-person relationships and turning out like-minded neighbors who want to make america great again. built entirely on person-to-person relationships and turning out like-minded neighbors. that's what it says. we'll see if it works. >> person-to-person social media. person to person at rallies. >> knocking on your neighbor's door.

>> exactly. >> the race for the democratic nomination, by the way, is so tight if the polling is right. candidates making one final push ahead of the caucus. we'll check in to see what's happening out there in a moment. and the newest polls, rick santorum and mike huckabee might have ground to make up, but if iowa has taught us anything, you can expect a little bit of unexpected tomorrow night. coming up, we'll talk to the woman who's been conducting "the des moines register" caucus poll. byron just talked about her. she is a legend in iowa. but first, here's rick santorum. >> i was david going up against goliath in the race four years ago. we had little money, little chance of winning. but all things are possible. to truly feel healthy on the outside

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in iowa showing you some of the live events that are going on, because these candidates are very, very busy. they're in that final push.

every hand they shake could make a difference for them. this is marco rubio. he's in cedar rapids at the moment, trying to get the good folks there to come over to his side. as i said, we'll continue to show you all of the lively action that's going on in many places around this state. >> i love it. so the last iowa poll ahead of the caucus is out. des moines register, a newspaper here in des moines. it's been pretty good in the past. what about now? here it is, showing donald trump hanging on to his lead in the hawkeye state. ted cruz in second place. marco rubio in third place. is that the way it's going to go? january seltzer is the pollster behind these numbers and she's conducted that since 1988. she's with me in the atrium. how are you doing? nice to see you and meet you. you are well-respected in these parts and i know you know that. but you don't always nail it. so now that you are 28-odd hours away, how do you feel right now? >> you know, i feel okay.

that we didn't see anything lurking in our data that suggests what if this happens, what if this happens, if there would be a shocking shake. -- change. that said, the caucuses are designed for shocking changes. this politicking that is going on, it's not like a primary where they have to stop politicking about 100 yards away. there are people up to the last minute trying to move those votes. >> i get it. i was out today and i was surprised how many people will not caucus. do you do any predictions on turnout? >> i am not a turnout projectionist. >> because that would be the secret sauce. >> it could be. a survey is an estimating tool. so a turnout, you need much more precision than we're able to say. because that's 10,000, 20,000 potential anyway. so i stay away. >> you ready? you caught the late momentum for john kerry in 2004. no one else saw that, did they?

>> to my knowledge. >> what did you see that led you to that 48 hours in advance? >> well, we not only saw that john kerry was getting more and more votes every day that we were in the field. we saw that howard dean, who was the presumed frontrunner, dropped. used to carry around the graph that i called the graph of doom for howard dean. because his support just collapsed over the four days we were in the field, at a time that kerry was surging, jashds as well. we were able to say pretty clearly that john kerry would be the win. >> so you caught the santorum charge at the end. you're taking credit for that. >> well, that's a shock. because santorum had lived in the 5% land. and the first day we got data back, he had 10%. >> but he's a 99-county guy. did that matter? if ted cruz goes to 99 counties, if hillary clinton gets to all 99 counties, does it? >> you know, symbolically, that means you understand all of iowa. so there's something to be said for that. if it comes to a case of a tie,

which is also having a chance to meet that many more people. iowans like to meet you before they vote for you. >> way back in 1988, you missed pat robert's potential vote. >> i believe we wrote about it in the story, that he had potential to do better. >> i'm here to give you a hard time. >> okay. >> not really. history suggests there are two type of candidates who outperform the polls. who are they? >> is this a test? >> or what type are they? the first is one with christian conservatives. >> evangelicals, i can talk about. >> why do you not poll well among evangelicals? what do you miss in the data? >> well, here's what i think it is. there's a certain group of people that we poll, and fewer of them are likely to show up than are represented in our poll, and there are people we polled that showed up in disproportionately numbers. that's the evangelical community. our polls show them as under 50%. they show up close to 60%. we did some scenario testing so say what if they show up like

this? donald trump still has a one-point lead, even with evangelicals at a higher level of participation. >> can you say -- i was at bernie sanders' headquarters yesterday. this is what they're doing, okay? hillary clinton mailed out her mailers two weeks ago. and apparently some of the caucus sites have changed since then. so sanders is putting these on the doorknobs of all the people they've identified, and at the bottom it says your caucus location is in said location. >> good idea. >> i've never seen it like this before. and i've been coming here since 2004. but trump doesn't do this. can you say whether or not that interaction and contact matters in 2016 or not? >> well, you need to be educating your supporters, because where you go to caucus is not necessarily where you go to vote. so if it's a different location, it's really helpful to know what that is. he has a strong group of we shall not be moved supporters. 71% of his supporters say they can't be moved.

they cannot be moved staying at home. he's got to be working on getting them to show up. because they can't cast a vote if they don't show up. >> thank you, ann. >> my pleasure. >> good luck, all right? >> thank you. >> not that there's any pressure, is there, martha? thank you. from "the des moines register." >> so we've seen a lot of attention between a lot of candidates, and a new bit of it erupting between ted cruz and marco rubio. cruz calling rubio "the republican obama." he has heard that before. we've got rubio's response to that, as our iowa caucus coverage continues. >> it is a fact that right now, marco rubio advocates amnesty for 12 million people here illegally. he advocates legalization and citizenship for everyone here illegally. he even advocates amnesty for criminals who are here illegally. e*trade is all about seizing opportunity.

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one more live look at the campaign trail. there's marco rubio in cedar rapids at the moment. amazing that anybody has a voice left, right? at this point of the game. earlier todaytoday, he was firi back against a new attack ad by cruz accusing him of being the republican obama. here is rubio's response. >> other than the fact that i oppose virtually everything barack obama stands for. and it's kind of bizarre. ted is leading in a lot of the polls. they took a video of an interview i did in 2007 in florida and clipped it, so that my full statement wasn't heard and it makes it sound like i support cap and trade. this has been lampooned for years. it's a last-minute desperation attack. >> joining me now, the communications director for marco rubio's campaign. it's good to have you back on

the show. welcome. obviously there's been a lot of stuff going back and forth between marco rubio and ted cruz. so why isn't the focus -- why aren't you guys putting your focus on the frontrunner, on donald trump at this point? >> we're most focused on hillary clinton. hillary clinton cannot be elected president of the united states in november. if marco is our nominee, we're going to unite the republican party and beat hillary and bring in a new american century. that's where we've really focused. we're talking about why hillary cannot be president. >> but first you've got to get the nomination, obviously. he has been in this group that is more aligned with the christie, kasich, jeb bush group. with cruz and trump both working out of iowa, we're running -- we're running against the greatest ground game ever built in iowa, if we can come out of here a strong third, a solid third place finish ahead of the governors that you just

mentioned, that gives us a little momentum going into new hampshire, going into the later states. >> three specific questions, all about ground game. do you believe you started too late in iowa? >> well, i guess we'll find out tomorrow night. the short answer is no. >> or was your strategy to catch what they call marcomentum? >> well, we always said we wanted to peak at the right time, february 1st, not december 1st. we have leaders in every single county in iowa. marco has spent a ton of time here in the last couple weeks trying to meet as many iowans as possible. we had over a thousand people come to our rally in urbandale, a suburb here in des moines. there's momentum for marco rubio. if we can finish a strong third, that momentum will propel us into the future. >> another specific question. there are 900 precincts throughout iowa where republicans will caucus. democrats have more than that,

about a thousand. a thousand-plus. what is the percentage of precincts where you will have people who will stand up and speak between two to five minutes on marco rubio's behalf? >> i expect we'll have somebody in every single precinct. >> that's 100%? >> i expect so, yes. we're not as organized as ted cruz, who has 12,000 volunteers and has invested pretty much everything he's got in iowa. we're campaigning in all 50 states. we want to do well in iowa. we've put in the resources needed here to do very well tomorrow night. not ted cruz's level, but we feel like we'll do well. i expect we'll have representatives at every precinct. >> i know you said to me earlier that marco rubio will be at some of those precincts. you're going to try to get him to as many as you can personally. what do you see is his lane here? we talk about the evangelical vote. talk about first-time voters. we sort of know who that seems to be leaning towards. what's his lane? where are his strongest voters? >> i think he's uniquely

situated in that he can pull from all corners of the party. he's not restricted to just one lane in this campaign. we can unite the republican party, which sult matly what we have to do if we're going to be beat hillary clinton this fall. we have to do if we're going to be beat hillary clinton this fall. >> one last question, and then mccallum can interrogate you. i was at the cruz headquarters yesterday. and the feeling was from one person who was fairly prominent, who will go nameless, their feeling was that in the past week, some iowans were moving away from them. and now they're coming back. >> i don't know about that. i expect ted cruz is going to win tomorrow night. a couple weeks ago, he was at 40%. they've got 12,000 volunteers on the ground. i fully expect ted cruz will win tomorrow night. i definitely feel some people have moved from cruz's campaign -- i know for a fact that people have moved from cruz's campaign to marco's campaign. that's why you're seeing all

these desperate attacks like the negative ads you guys were showing earlier. more attack ads have been run against marco rubio than any other candidate in this campaign. that's a sign that we're doing something right. >> what are you guys doing to get people physically to the caucus? i'm wondering what donald trump's mechan we're talking about how we haven't seen his ground game physically here. his ground game appears to be rallies and social media. so what's okay? can you drive around the neighborhood and pick people up and bring them to the caucus? >> we are bombarding people in iowa that we know are supporting marco rubio. they're getting e-mails, phone calls. >> but physically getting people to the caucus. >> they can go to our website, marcorubio.com and we'll help them get to the caucuses. we feel like we're doing very well here. we have some momentum. people just have to turn out. that's what the next 24 hours are all about. >> here we go, right? >> it will be fun. >> good to see you again. >> you know it's the first caucus with uber.

just saying. >> my uber driver said he was going to caucus for marco rubio tomorrow night. >> and you told him to pick up as many people as possible. hillary clinton is on the stump. hillary clinton and bernie sanders making their final push and final argument today in iowa. campaigning right now, council bluffs, western part of the state. latest polling them shows them in a statistical dead heat. i don't know. this could go late tomorrow night. or maybe not. ed henry's got an idea live in waterloo. and what is -- let's start with clinton. what is her final argument? maybe her closing statement. >> well, bill, it's all about experience or proximity to president obama. remember when this campaign started, hillary clinton was splitting with the president on some big issues, in part to kind of develop her own as a candidate, but also to show that she was going to break away from some more controversial policies within the obama administration. now she's trying to get democrats to come home in these

caucuses. what bernie sanders is doing, he's saying nice things about the president, but trying to take on not just the republican establishment and wall street, but the democratic establishment, the democratic party saying that he's gone around all of that structure, and just announced today he raised another $20 million in the month of january alone. here's a flavor of what bernie sanders just said and what clinton has been saying in her final pitch. >> what we are saying is enough is enough. you've had your day. now it is our turn. >> i am a progressive who likes to get things done. i'm a progressive who actually likes to make progress. that's what i believe in. >> what we need is a plan and a commitment and me. yes, thank you. >> you were just talking about that des moines register on the republican side. a lot of interesting developments. on the democratic side, that same poll eight months ago had hillary clinton with a 41-point lead.

now down to a three-point lead, bill. >> i remember in 2008, when she lost to barack obama in the final 24 hours, they took out that television ad at 7:00 at night to make the closing statement. i haven't heard anything about it. perhaps you have. also, they will debate, clinton and standers, before the new hampshire primary. how did this come together? >> it's not 100%, but it's definitely leaning that way. maybe three more debates. it came about because there had been pressure for martin o'malley and bernie sanders saying let's have more debates. then all of a sudden hillary clinton's campaign, which had been against more debates, when she was a clear frontrunner, in recent days saying she's done well in those debates. let's have more of them. the dnc didn't want to add more. late development, the dnc says fine, we'll sanction more debates. but they also said stop fighting about the venues and the dates for these next four debates.

one of them in new hampshire next week. but three more. they're still fighting about where they'll be. the dnc saying let's take a time-out until after monday night. the democrats should be focused on getting voters out to the caucuses, not fighting about debate sites. >> keep up the great work. you still have your voice. well-done. ed henry live in waterloo. >> so exactly who turns out to caucus tomorrow night and for whom is the big question. no stone unturned in the search for supporters. the role of turnout, and believe me, you're going to get your door knocked on if you live in iowa, today, tonight, tomorrow. what's the impact? when we come back. >> number one, go out and caucus. number two, caucus for me. i know you have a lot of choices. i do. one out of seven republicans ran for president this year. that's a lot of people. it takes a lot of work... to run this business.

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how important is voter turnout? it is everything. to those in the know, turnout means winning or losing. the weather could be an issue. forecast calls for snow monday night into tuesday morning. how are you doing, katherine? you were so good yesterday. we brought you back for a double shot. i don't believe the forecast is going to have an impact. >> they're saying it's going to be later than the caucus. people should get out just fine. >> martha and are saying we're not going to allow our anxiety to get that. >> it's really the journalists who have to fly home on tuesday. >> 20% of iowans caucused based on history, accurate or not? >> i mean, the numbers speak for themselves. caucuses are very different than primaries in other states. they require a high level of participation. they take more time. it can take several hours.

so less people tend to show up. >> is there any evidence that would suggest that number will be higher tomorrow night? >> certainly people are enthusiastic on both sides. i was talking to a lot of republicans today who think on the republican side, they expect higher than usual turnout. >> i can see that. >> there's so many candidates with a lot of enthusiasm around trump. cruz is really well-organized. on the democratic side, they're producing good turnout, but they don't think they'll hit the numbers they hit in 2008 when obama really helped boost the turnout. >> 220,000, what was that? >> 240. that was an unprecedented size. this year, with two candidates, you're not going to see the same. >> republican record 122,000, right? >> about that. >> which was four years ago. i was at a diner earlier today, and you'll see this later tonight on our special that we're doing out of des moines. well under half of the people who were eating there will caucus. >> you said 20%. that's iowa. the people who participate are very into it.

they're highly educated and motivated. but there's a lot of folks who will vote in primaries and generals, but they don't caucus. >> quinnipiac. 39% will change their mind in the closing days. i think based on what i've heard, i think that's probably true. >> i think there's still definitely fluidity in the race. i've been hearing that all along. and some people do like to go at the very end. they might be down to their top two. but then they listen to the speeches and the conversation at the caucus. >> democratic side, let's see what the turnout does. but it is thought that you had a strong youthful turnout in 2008. >> that's right. >> can bernie sanders come close to that? can he match it? can he surpass it? >> it's hard to know. and this is the big question mark. he needs a big youth turnout. he needs new people to come out. and he's trying to do that. they are trying to get college kids to go home to their hometowns to caucus, for example. because their votes might be more valuable in a small rural town than in a university town.

they're trying to get high school students who are of age to participate. so they are doing some of the things they need to do. but it's hard to know. >> it was my sense on the campaign headquarters tour that they did over the weekend, that the sanders headquarters has the most energy. people are buzzing around that place. >> absolutely. i was there yesterday. i met people who had come in from california, from chicago, from missouri, all coming in for the weekend on their own dimes to just go knock doors all weekend. >> we'll see if it matters. o'malley will, in all likelihood, not get to 15%. and so those people are beginning to have to go do -- >> well, it's case by case. it's each individual precinct he has to reach that minimum. so he could do okay in some areas. and then in others, people will have to go somewhere else. >> thanks, catherine. do you make predictions or are you in that business? >> i try not to. >> it's safer at this point, right? >> i'm always wrong, too. >> thank you very much. are thanks so much. we've talked about this quite a bit. pro-lifers are likely to play a

big role in the iowa caucuses tomorrow evening, but they have a number of candidates to pick from this time around. so who are they expected to support tomorrow? but first, take a look, back to the campaign trail with carly fiorina. >> citizens, i'm asking you to stand with me, to fight with me, to caucus for me. i think it is time to take our future back. i think it is time to take our politics and our government back. time. we must. you're here to buy a car. what would help is simply being able to recognize a fair price. truecar has pricing data on every make and model, so all you have to do is search for the car you want, there it is. now you're an expert in less than a minute. this is truecar. joining her daughter's yoga class.ng about she was thinking about her joints.

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>> pro life supporters in what what will make up a good portion of tomorrow's republican caucus goers so it is no surprise that many of the g.o.p. candidates are trying to make their case for the crucial voting bloc here. is this an issue, russian -- shannon, this time around? >> martha, you know as we have heard and seen for years on the ground that issues of faith and family are big for iowa voters. we talked to the local pastor, politically active, about this issue. he said that for republicans and many democrats, the issue of abortion is important. he added this. all the first thing in the declaration of independence the rights guaranteed from us from our creator are given to us is

life. if i cannot trust a candidate on his position on life how could i trust him to handle our entire budget of our nation? >> the issue has sparked a letter from national and iowa pro life leaders inching people to vote for anyone but donald trump saying "america will only be a great nation when we have leaders strong character who will defend both up born children and the dignity of woman. we cannot to do either." that is raising a last eyebrows? >> no doubt. in terms of the candidates and how they address it, something on that? >> yes, donald trump is answer a lot of questions. here is what he said when pressed on the issue of whether he would ban partial birth abortion. >> i was raised in new york and grew up and worked in new york city with i am strongly for choice and yet i hate the

concept of abortion. >> you would not ban it? >> no. >> or ban partial birth abortion? >> i am pro choice in every respect and as far as it goes but i hate it. >> he now said he is 100 percent pro life and he has evolved talking with doctors and friends who considered abortion, and not everyone is convinced. we will see if it marries to voters on monday night. martha? >> thank you, shannon. >> 47 hours and latest polling in a moment special america's election headquarters continue. in a moment. 80% of women say a healthy lifestyle is a priority. but up to 90% fall short in getting key nutrients from food alone. let's do more. add one a day women's 50+ complete multivitamin. with vitamin d and calcium to help support bone health. one a day.

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>> it is crunch time in iowa, everyone. it is. we have been saying it is coming, coming, coming, but it is here now. thes with discandidates are across the state. they must be exhausted. they are making the final pitches before the caucus tomorrow and it is a personal process in iowa. welcome, brand new hour now, on a surprising day, a sunday afternoon out of nowhere. here is bill and martha in

america's election headquarters in des moines, iowa. >> that is martha and i am bill. a special day. technology becomes part of this more and more afternoon time around and this time this are 900 precincts throughout iowa. on the respect side, a through on the democratic side. the republicans this year will have a captain, say, at each precinct. normally they tabulate the numbers and make a continue call. this year they use an app. >> on knows how it will go? >> on my phone it is down ladied saying iowa 2016 and if you tap on it, it says welcome, begin the result for caucus 2016, and note that your session only lasts for 15 minutes. you hit "begin," and it asked for your phone number, are you ready to report, yes or no. then you have a phone number and

you hit "authorize," set up for most, not all, but the greater majority of the precincts. we will find how well it works. >> they have a backup plan? something on marine? this is the first time they have done this and we have not talked about it enough. it is possible people could have trouble with it working, it could be slow. >> the romney team in 2012 with the new software system did not go well. this time they are trying it and we will see if it is accurate, if it is past, we could have quick results. >> we could. yes. "if." >> "if." >> on republican side of the race the latest poll looks like this, we are waiting for the numbers because they fairly accurate and you have 28 percent for donald trump, 23 percent for ted cruz and 15 percent for marco rubio. on the democrat side, close as a

whisker, hillary clinton at 45 percent and bernie sanders has 42 percent which is a wash. they are neck and neck in the margin of error, former maryland governor o'malley polling at 3 percent. with all of that, maybe, we do not know, maybe o'malley will have a big surge, we don't know. >> and you have to get 15 percent in the democratic caucus to stay in the game. if you got get it --. >> he ain't going to get it. 3 percent ain't a lot of per sent. >> i am looking at the questions for the polls, are you a first time caucus goer? evangelical? did you go to college? not go to college? when we start to get -- this is when people are walking in to the poll unlike the ones on election night where they eleven the polls, how accurate are they

given the fact they walk in there and politics happens? >> pretty accurate. the democratic side had more wrinkles in it because of the way they do it and you miss the threshold you caucus for uninterest else of the open republican side they have to listen to everyone talk. sometimes minds or changed and people talk with each other the on the way out, they let their preference be known. what is difference, it is binding. this past years it was a straw poll that would have an affect on how the candidates are chosen. we can do real delegates. do not jinx the app. quick talking about it. >> i worry about things in advance so they do not happen. >> that is called the hillbilly happiness edge if a good things happens it is good but if bad things happen you can say you were right. >> exactly. >> patented. >> something interesting today, a social media video from ivanca

trump, she said it is private, can you write your name on it, and no one will know. that is the take away. from the video. >> she did that. >> i went today and i need all the help i can get so i went to church today. i need a double. i went to church today. i talked to a guy and he said something fascinating, i was thing about all these things but in the end i am just trump. i said, why? because i am angry. the anger. in the end, he did not want trump be the until me and thought marco rubio would an better choice to pete hillary clinton but he wanted iowa to san a message that the republican electorate is enraged. >> fascinating. it could be a lot of people who support donald trump are trying to send a message, trying to rock the house down.

they are very, very unhappy with the way it is going in washington. how many of those people, and we were talking about this, are fires time caucus goers? one estimate out there is 40 percent are first time caucus goers and we spoke to the a.m. reporter who said people do not like to caucus. >> there will not be -- put it this way. if it is 40 percent first time caucus gories donald trump wins so much you will be bored with winning is what he say the people get tires of it. 40 percent is the technical political science term is ridiculously high share. basically what i will look at, in past years it is eight out of ten or nine out of ten are previous caucus goers and first time caucus gories is usually low and the high are number of first time or have not been caucused last time or in 20

years, the more first timers or infrequent caucus goers turn up, the betterrer for truck, the higher turnout the better for trump, but ted cruz and donald trump no matter how you slice it are very close. they are neck and neck and the senator from florida, marco rubio, is moving. he has momentum of the that is clear, too, from all the polls and the best polls, our poll, everyone, so we know the shape of the race but it is go -- there is a snowstorm coming. it will depend on how they lay the game. >> love it. >> israel -- love it. >> but don't talk about the app. >> had to get it out through. >> stop talking about the storm and i will top talking about the app. >> deal. >> deal. >> sold. >> why are outsiders like trump bernie sanders finding so much

support? an article claims that many iowa voters sigh the system, the policemen system, rigged and they want it fixed. four in ten likely republican caucus gories say the system is rigged against them and for likely democratic caucus goers, it is much higher, 67 percent, two thirds say the system is rigged against them. a political columnist with the des moines register and nice to see you in person. we talked to the window by way of negotiation and now we are here. what does this tell you about the mood in iowa and, perhaps, reflecting the rest of the country? >> first, there is a segment of voters in iowa who are angry. you are seeing that play out in this very interest number of people who say the system is rigged in this poll. that is not a typical republican

response. most republicans say the system works pretty well for people who work hard or are willing to work hard. the system is rigged. most of those people who think the system is rigged supporting donald trump. interestingly enough, the demographics, the only people who feel the same as donald trump are people making less than $70 the a year and political independents which is a strong segment for donald trump, he needs political independents to town out to the republican caucus. >> you that is enough. a lost data. what you are finding, though, we have seen voters in the past say they were angry and they told us that. is that number higher now or not? >> it is. people are more angry, more people are angry now than four years ago. >> is that an economic condition? what is that? >> it is both economic and political. when we talk about the system being "rigged," they concerned

the economic system is rig today favor the wealthy and the power will but they are happen -- unhappy about the political system. donald trump is a billionaire, why pick him to be the voice of someone who is getting the shaft from the wealthy? it is because he is promising to change the political system. he doesn't talk lick a politician. people like that he is a straight talker and not politically correct. >> who do they say screwed it up for them? >> i think it is a situation where washington culture, people are angry about politicians in washington unfold, both parties. they feel they are lied to by politicians and they see people go to washington and get corrupted. you could send good people from iowa to washington but they are corrupted by the system and that includes the lobbyists, the big money, corporate interests. >> the people feel like washington has not helped them?

>> no. >> my sense that is a reflection how you fool about your situation in life and that comes become to finances. >> if you have a middle class that is battered for the last decade this is the voice that is emerging. >> it is more economic than education. people say, donald trump is the candidate for people without college education. that is not necessarily true. he has support from people who are college educated and not but people on the lower end of the economic spectrum regardless of how educated they are gravitate to donald trump and it is partly dissags. in iowa the economy is one of the best in the nation with low unemployment. very low. people who are still not working --. >> are the wages higher or stuck? >> iowa is a very high employment state but we very a low wage state.

>> thank you, kathie. >> thank you. >> jam packed day with candidates scrambling to reach as many voters as possible. john reports has been all over the state and right now he is in iowa so, john, a flurry of events taking place cross all of iowa. where are you and what is going on? >> yes, we are in an area that has more wind mills per capita than rome has mountains in the central part of iowa. campaigns have been blitzed trying for hit as many voters as possible the licks in iowa is like an iceburg, the big campaign rallies is the tip. the very public showy part. below the surface a massive ground separation to get supports to the caucus, hundreds of volunteers making thousands of phone calls, tens thousands,

walking the neighborhoods and knocking on doors and bearing potential caucus gories and marco rubio's campaign also hitting voters on social media, facebook and twitter. >> are you confident the ground game can finish people out? >> we have from people working for us, a last students who are helping and many people. we have all of the caucus sites with from people working on our behalf. we feel very good about that. >> by most accounts the ground game to beat is ted cruz where dozen of out of stale volunteer volunteers, bunked at camp doman beck those who say they could change their minds. >> we have identified a large number of voters who are with other candidates now, who would pick ted cruz as a second close and that is what we are dough here, call those people and

having conversations with them. >> ted cruz is playing for a win here in iowa so anything less than that is seen as a big defeat. marco rubio is trying to exceed expectations. the campaign would like to come in a strong third. >> they reiterated that. donald trump, obviously, in the lead in the des moines register poll. what did we learn about his ground game? >> in a couple of words: not much. when we contact the donald trump campaign to say we would like to look at the ground game, come to the headquarters and see the phone bank, and they say, i am sorry we are far too busy and we dropped by the headquarters yesterday and you cannot look inside because the windows are plastered up with trump stickers and we not allowed to go inside so it raise one of two possibilities, when can you not see something it is very secretive or it does not exist. don't know if donald trump could winter weather warning iowa without a good ground game but

nothing he has done is conventional. >> with social media and with rallies he is turning the some media on its head. thank you. >> we talked about being angry and most say they are angry and we have heard that from many. but will they come out? or will they chalk this up to politics as usual? if they come out who does it help? who does it hurt? >> and this is very interesting, ted cruz underfire for a controversial mailer that was sent to voters in iowa accusing them of "voting violations." a top cruz supporter will join us to talk about that coming up next. >> a lot of voters will react and say, what kind of person sends out and trillions me i am not showing up for votes particularly when ted cruz is the one who did not show up to vote for a history of other issues.

.

>> in des moines, iowa, the crazy crazy campaign is under

fire over a mailer they sent to voters that reads at the top "voting violation." how without feel about that? it shows the recipient's record of showing up to vote as well as their neighbor's record of show up to vote, some call this vote are shaming. one state official said the mailer misrepresented what a's election law but senator cruz said he thinks this is absolutely fine and on the up and up. >> listen, max schultz is a federal secretary of state, chairman of our campaign put out a public statement saying the mailers are routine, the iowa republican party has done so in the past in past elections. i the apologize to no one for using every tool we can to encourage iowa voters to come out and vote. >> gin me is texas lieutenant governor patrick who is a ted cruz supporter. good to have you. >> thank you for being here. >> i want to show people more

about this. >> marco rubio put out a similar one yesterday and the republican party has done it in the past. it is -- towed isen attacked by everyone on every side. he is building momentum in iowa. >> we will let the viewers see this is an excerpt from the mailer, that foes are getting in the mail, a yellow slip of paper that says your individual voting history and your neighbor's voting history are public record, the scores are published below and many will see your score, as well. to improve your score we encourage your neighbors to caucus and a follow-up notice could be issued following the monday caucus. a lot of people if they got this it would make them nervous and it is intimidating to say i know what your voting record is and your neighbor. you can make it better not to be embarrassed. all the information is public and marco put out one yesterday

and the republican party did one in 2014. sitting in new in iowa and people are looking for any reason they can to attack ted cruz because he is the consistent conserve stiff in the race with the best ground game. martha i was at campaign headquarters yesterday and today making phone calls. our team yesterday made 27,000 calls and there is not even a close second. we have 12,000 volunteers in the state. we have 1,800 chairs and co-chairs blanketing --. >> absolutely --. >> that is the key. >> ted cruz's ground game is good and as you said, it mirrors and builds on what they did in texas but back to this vote, mailer. it shows the response from the second of state in iowa and he state accusing citizens of iowa of voting violation businesses on iowa caucus participation or lack thereafter is a false

representation of an official act." he goes on to say and i quote, "there is no such thing as an election violation related to frequency of voting. any insinuation or statement to the contrary is wrong and i believe it is not in keeping with the spirit the iowa caucus." is this something you think the campaign wants to say, we want everyone to understand this, we did not noon it to be intimidating and maybe go further and explaining it? >> no, i think it is much ado about nothing. marco put out a similar mailing. there have been some in the state for some candidates and for others and i am not sure where it is coming from. it is another one of many attack s that is not making a difference in towed. if you have seen the polling of the "des moines register" ted will have a great night he will be the conservative coalescing conservatives in iowa and across the country. i believe he is going to be the next president of the united states and we will be excited in texas and america. we have not had a real

conservative lead for long. >> what do you think the story is tonight night? we were discuss on the brake donald trump very invisible or perhaps underground. >> or nonexistent. >> but we will know the answer tomorrow night and what do you think the surprise will be? >> i think the palming is correct there are three candidate whose have separated from the field. if you take the other seven and they average four points that leaves 72 percent for three so the will positiving is about showing the number and today will do well tomorrow night. he has -- he is the only conservative who has a chance to win iowa and he has money and a team for the long run. they want iowa but did not have the full campaign. ted can go the distance having a strong conservative who, by the way, after a couple of weeks by the time we get to texas and early vote stars in two weeks,

you will be down to five people in the debates. the more you see ted in the debate the stronger he gets, the more you see trump the weaker he gets in the debate. you have a candidate in ted cruz who millionized the constitution, and i am not sure others have read it. hillary clinton does not follow it. the more they get to seated the more he coalesces the conservatives and it will an great night the we see what the turnout is. >> good to have you here. and interesting to see the vote are violation that some people got and how everyone caucuses and how the vote is out tomorrow night. >> i don't think it will make a difference tomorrow. >> thank you. law is significant news over the weekend for hillary clinton regarding her mails and we will examine what the mail issue means for neither how and bernie sanders drewing some big crowds in iowa. does that enthusiasm bring him victory tomorrow night?

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me, i understand it. that is how they are but after 11 hours of testimony answering every question in public which i requested for many months it is clear they are gransing at -- grasping. >> and co-host of "the five," and manager of iowa caucus in 2012 and knows quite a bit about iowa and how it works. welcome. both of you. first, i know you went to a hillary clinton event. what do you make of the reaction with stephanopolis? thank you is the standard hillary clinton response, taking it to benghazi for a new level i did not hear that before where she tied it to what reminds me of vast right-wing conspiracy and these are dead horses that republicans continue to bet in an effort to stigmatize her and hurt her because, i guess --. >> is it wise?

do people take it more seriously? i not bernie sanders saying he thinks it is a serious issue. obviously he is running against her. >> but bernie sanders also said today he is not going to make an issue of the e-mails. >> she said get it out. >> what is taking is long? >> based on what i understand if you wanted to get all of e-mails out, there is one person who has the ability. that is president obama. >> we didn't know who some of the e-mails are to or from but we have good ideas it could include the president or n.s.a. staffers and obviously they are classified and used on her own private server. the challenge for hillary clinton is if we go become to last year when she stood at the press conference of the u.n. and said this is not a big deal, i did not do anything wrong and this will blow over. this has been a career of obviously the story changing week after weekday after day and it means for a year hillary clinton has not been on message she wants to talk about. right now again she is on

against. >> here is the issue i see: you have today. cnn announced another ton hall in new hampshire on wednesday and that is in between the iowa and new hampshire affair and msnbc announced a debate on thursday in new hampshire. does that tell us how the clinton team is feeling? they need to get back on stage with bernie sanders, one-on-one. that would suggest this story is doing no...this is nothing in this story that is helping her candidacy right now. that is what i take away. >> a challenge for her, juan mentioned the vast right-wing conspiracy, barack obama white house and department of state and justice department are not the right-wing conspiracy so if beers said we are sick talking about the hillary clinton e-mails he means we are sick of it and hillary clinton needs to put this to an end or she has

problems as a candidate. >> i think you are off. what you are seeing in terms of the clinton camp response and be welcoming more debate is about the fact they are trailing badly in new hampshire. for matter how they do --. >> what i am suggesting is perhaps they are seeing it in iowa and new hampshire and this is still a drag often her. >> why think it is a drag. we are talking about democratic primary voters. >> you don't thing it is a drag? >> if that is not what is doing it, if the preoccupation beach gaza -- benghazi which she looped into this. she said she would like them to be out, she knows they will never be out there, but, obviously, they are weak on her campaign. >> i don't ink this so. >> what is the problem? >> why think she a very good candidate. she is getting better and getting warmer. if you look at bernie sanders he has picked up on the populist

impulse in materials of young people. that is the energy, the grass roots energy like the republican side but on the democratic silent hillary clinton is the establishment. people have a sense of been there before, especially young woke, you would thing necessity would tap into the first potentially woman candidate. >> but the addition of the ton hall and debate mean she is losing traction especially in new hampshire but it does not have an association with e-mails. now, doug, you say the e-mails have three main issues. it has been a year. >> yes. >> still going on. it takes her off message. puts her on defense and it is hard to give in to people that there are not those in washington who could manage this now. >> get it out and clarify. >> this is why it is a drag on the campaign. for the year, a rule of political communications you want your candidate to talk about what they want to talk about and your component to talk about what they don't want to.

hillary clinton has been talking about a she doesn't want to talk about and the story changes every week. that is a political problem. >> among democrats, again, i don't hear they really are tapped into. >> but she is not making the connection with the d voters. >> but that is --. >> but talking about what she wanted to tack about all time perhaps he is not in a world of hurt with bernie sanders. >> she used up her capital talking air about the issues. >> bernie sanders is not and she is not. bernie sanders is not evershadowing her but doing better-than-expected and that is obvious by the numbers. >> who would think 74-year-old democratic socialist bernie sanders would be the barack obama in iowa. >> barack obama...that is a little much. he is the one with the energy. >> the surprise person who is californiaing her in a way she did not anticipate. >> it will be true and evident in new hampshire which is why theally ton camp wants to get back on the stage.

>> by the way, it is the four. of us. the four. do you feel comfortable? >> how can you beat martha? can know about you and doug. >> thank you. >> we were talking about bernie sanders closing in on the lead of hillary clinton in hawkeye state. the question now, whether all of the young voters who support the vermont senator are going do show up tomorrow and caucus. ed our senior correspondent is in iowa where bernie sanders is campaigning today. mike, what do the supporters say about their intentions tomorrow night? >> martha, we have heard from folks who think that hillary clinton cannot keep some of her campaign promises because of her big money donors to her super pac and, also, the clinton foundation. we have talked to a lost bernie sanders supporter whose say bottom line, they like his. >> then -- like his realness.

>> you get the feel he is genuine. hillary clinton looked right through me. >> beers feels more honest and i want an honest people in there who we can trust. why goal like we can trust hillary clinton. >> we have heard a lot of that in polling, and clinton struggling on being honest and trustworthy and that is certainly helping bernie sanders for president. martha? >> fascinating to hear in people's own voices what they taking away after all of these months of the messaging coming at them, what is resonating with them and it is very clear, with those two, obviously, two women, what is driving them. how does sanders move to close the deal in the final hours, mike? >> martha, bernie sanders told abc news he is fully confident he can win the white house so sander is making the last minute stops to visit supporters and volunteers trying to get them across the finish line, trying

to fire them up one more time to make that final push before cubs night and we spoke to an iowa political analyst who talked of the effort to dry up turnout and finishing the job here. >> you have to get the young people the new voters out is convince people the last now days people that caucus anyway, convince them that, in fact, bernie sanders is electable. >> bernie sanders will dress the campaign and volunteers. he is trying to fire them up before they go cure -- door-to-door to get friends and neighbors to contact for bernie sanders. >> contact sport. >> have you had the hash brown service. >> i have heard about them. with the hot peppers inside. >> deep pockets are key to iowa in the past but it may not be the case this time around s that

right? chris christie saying voters are fed up and ready for change and could a political outsiders prevail? christie is making the case with expert analysis next. >> those guys standing on the same on thursday, they are trying to confuse. right? they are trying to run the old h trophy, push you off, and make sure you don't hear them real loud because maybe you could think they will be okay but. you ask me a question i give. >> direct answer.

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>> some an lives state polls in iowa show voters are sick of politics as usual. this is something we have been hearing throughout the entire cycle. how will that reflect in who is

chosen tomorrow night, the establishment candidates or the political outsiders shake things up. we have federal republican reporter for "des moines register" and with southern illinois university. welcome back, david. >> how do you feel? the "des moines register" poll, do you think it is accurate? >> they know what they are doing with this poll. it is pretty accurate. but be careful about a prediction. what jumped out is a large number of democrats, 30 percent, some 60 percent of the republicans say they could still be persuadeed. don't forget there is a neighborhood meeting. people will gather and talk politics with one another and a lot people do change their mind at the caucus site, different than a primary. >> what about crossing overst there are working class voters that donald trump has said he has -- cross over voters. how long would they have to cross over? >> right there at the site.

that is important. a lot of people are just going do show up and they are not registered it vote, even, but they sign it, necessity can vote the. >> i want to play this, air on social media today, ivanca talking about the process and giving people a few pointers. >> it should take only half an hour. a secret ballot, you write down the name "trump," and you done. a is it. very exciting. >> that is it. >> everyone said it is a long produce, and crowds and you are there for a long-term, it will be quick, it is a secret ballot and it is interesting. what do you think she is getting? >> she is getting at on the republican side you cannery down a number and put it in the box, and skit like 9 democrats stand up publicly, but, half an hour, that is optimistic. the caucuses are going to be crowded we will have huge turnout and a lost new people and that is one of the big

questions, will a lot of the supporters for trump and forbears show up? if you set them in a line for a cold winter day do get interest an event you will do it on caucus night. >> it belies common sense to think people with show up at the evens and putting energy and of the it takes into doing that and they will not show up tomorrow night. it remains to be seen. in terms of the category, what categories do you expect to see broken in this? evangelicals? wrong are voters? first time voters? what do you expect from the polls? >> all of the above. we will have a big town out. there will be people from all of the fashions. there will be some people that wear a couple of hats. youngest gel -- the young ever develop challenges are moments separated by different things than the older evangelicals.

most people will note what they going do do going into a caucus but there are a lot of people who do not know. >> and the push-pull of negotiation comes into pull with bernie sanders and hillary clinton. >> and the republican side. there is still conversation about would people should support, people stand up and say, this is your neighbor. if you like them, thing they know something about accomplishes you can go in there and ted cruz and thing, well, maybe i should go for marco rubio. >> or if they are an annoy 19 you could run in the other direction. >> social media is the key. this will drive the town out. >> all right, david, thanks for coming back. >> you are a brave pan. you are the first opinion -- person going on record predicting the large turnout. you are saying officially you think it will be...

>> large town out. i am not saying breaking record but people are looking at voter registration, that is flawed metric because of the phenomenon. you can show up that night and vote. you do not have to go to the courthouse and register ahead of time. you can register that night. you can change parties that night. a lot of this is a last minute thing particularly with the bernie sanders wronger voters. >> and if it turns out to be high on the first time voter that is with donald trump and bernie sanders on top. >> thank you david. >> new, two candidates are among the options and does one candidate have an advantage? first, jeb bush is making a play for the grope. >> our enemies will fear us and we will be pore safe and more secure. your works makes me believe i have a very good chance of being

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>> the new thing is record number of hispanic voters registered for tomorrow in iowa, there are two latino candidates to choose from. we are covering the latino vote of 2016 and we are in new york city with more on that. how significant does the hispanic vote in iowa? >> significant. it could make a difference in iowa where rick santorum won the republican caucus in 2012 by 35 votes hispanics are the largest minority at 175,000 hispanics in iowa. that is 38 percent officer from 2008 and 50,000 hispanics are registered to vote. in 2012 only a thousand latinos caucuses for republicans and 3, 500 caucused for democrats. in year, organizations are hopping to double the caucus town out holing seminars in various states including des

moines. >> they are not counting on the conservative evangelical vote but other groups, including latinos. latinos, although they are not a big part of iowa yet, they are big enough they can make a difference especially in a state where not many people participate in the caucus. >> remember, mitt romney won only 27 percent of the latino vote in 2012 and republicans need to beat that to win the white house. marco rubio and cruz are not getting the votes out there, it is jeb bush and o'malley that are pushing for for the latino vote. >> interesting. we will watch that angle. >> good to see you. >>. coming up our final thoughts on this eve before the iowa caucuses and well tack about those. i've smoked a lot and quit a lot, but ended up nowhere. now i use this. the nicoderm cq patch, with unique extended

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>> before we get out of here iowa is throwing a party for my friend, martha, and we like to say ... happy birthday. ♪ happy birthday. >> so nice. >> happy birthday, dear martha. ♪ happy birthday. >> beautiful, the best happy

birthday serenade. ♪ happy birthday, to you ♪ happy birthday, to you ♪ birthday >> 26 hours and counting a furious weekend before the first-in-the-nation caucuses here in iowa. the campaign, the questions, and the controversies. from the capital building in des moines this is "special report." we are coming live from the what state capital in des moines, positioned right under the rotunda and in front of the bell from the battleship uss iowa with a copy in the state capital. i am bret baier. tonight on this special sunday "special report," we set the stage for the first