>> breaking tonight after a presidential campaign unlike any other we are finally less than 24-hours away from the first of the nation's caucuses. iowa voters will have their say to elect the next president of the united states. welcome to the kelly files. we are live in des moines, iowa. by this time tomorrow night the caucuses will be well underway. the candidates are crisscrossing the state in an effort to shore up support. the latest poll shows a real battle off of the top. according to the des moines register donald trump in the lead at 28 percent ted cruz at 23 percent. this represents a shift in the race. last month the tame poll had ted

cruz with a 10 point advantage over donald trump. a lot can change overnight because 45 percent of iowa voters say they could still be persuaded to support another candidate. that's how it works with the caucuses. so it is anybody's guess. we have a big show for you on tap. we will get analysis from chris and howe kurtz. we will speak to rand paul about his strategy and iowa congressman steve cane is here to talk about politics and his home state. we begin tonight with frank luntz with a focus group of iowa voters. watch this. >> all eyes are on iowa and on caucus voters like this. every one changed who they support in the last 48-hours. how many of you could change back to someone else? raise your hands. what is wrong with these people? how long does it take? oo the field is so big there

are so many issues and more things keep coming out. in the last debate you saw other candidatesable to come up and rise to the top and give you a different impression of them. >> was that actually a positive not having trump there? did you feel like you learned more? >> yes. >> you are nodding your head. tell me why? >> i feel like when trump speaks it is a circus and all about being a bully and trying to get everybody -- attack attack. this time it was all about the issues. everybody got more of a fair chance to speak. >> i know some of you like trump. you are nodding your head. >> i switched to trump. as a small business owner he gives me the best chance to better my business and leave a legacy for my family. >> what gave you that impression over the last 48-hours that you didn't have before? >> i have really delved into the financial and fiscal policies of donald trump and being a business owner himself and having time to research it over

the weekend and into the wreak end gave me a chance to look and say he's not going to bepenaliz me for being the best business owneric be. >> what caused you to shift? >> i went from trump and we watched the debate and he didn't show up. i was a huge cruz supporter after megyn kelly showed the bill the amendment brought it down to 38 words and kept it back and forth with that so now i am with marco rubio. >> you went through three different candidates in the last 48-hours. >> there's a word for that i don't know what it is. >> it is not flip flopping. >> how likely are you to stay with mark would he r-- marco ru. >> i had a chance to ask a direct question about security in front of my 10-year-old and it solidified it.

>> how -- were you in nebraska? 9 out of 10 of you met a presidential candidates. i am curious at some point in your life have met and met them before they became president. who met someone who became president? raise your hands? 5 out of 10. only in iowa. you haven't gone to any rallies? >> no. i own my own company so i work a lot. i do watch a lot on tv. i have been between cruz and trump a lot. back and forth, back and forth. i will say i have a lot of respect for trump in the aspect of he went against the norm and held his own rally and people lined up. i was watching it on the news. people were lined up all of the way down the street to get in to see him. >> this vote is taking place in less than 24-hours. when did you settle? >> i have been back and forth even to this morning i talked to my brother who is in the

military. he has been diehard trump. i was going back and forth talking about how it is going to effect us. >> where are you now? >> trump. >> you switched from when we interviewed you? >> yes. >> i hate when people do that. >> i have done flip flopping, too. at the beginning carson i think he's an up right man, i kind of moved toward cruz now i am moving toward rubio. i am very impressed with senator rubio and the understanding when he speaks that he's giving americans the importance of this election and how past generations have struggled and worked to make america great and that we are going to continue to have those, but what kind of america are we? are we going to move toward a socialized america or are we going to be the america that say

the greatest generation was and can we really as an america? >> i know that you are -- that people are concerned that iowa is the first in the nation that they cast the first votes and whether it is sophisticated enough. how much television do you watch? how much information have you collected? >> i watch and read the news every single day of the week. >> have you seen every debate? >> yes. >> you saw every who you are. >> i was at the last debate. >> where did you start? >> i started off as a rand paul supporter and now i am for ted cruz more as a protest of donald trump. >> what are you protesting? >> i disagree with some of the comments that he's not conservative. he's stated before that he wants a socialized medicine system beyond obamacare and this country. he's flip flopped on his positions many, many times over the years, i can't stand by and

watch that happen. >> what is more impactful to you the debates, the ads or what you read in the newspaper? >> the rallies. >> i have been to several rallies and i have had candidates come to where i work and actually speak, and that's where you get to know a candidate and their passion and what they believe in. for me that's what people should do. they should go out and listen to the candidate speak instead of having to debate and fight each other. you get a good include who that person is. >> i got one more shot. >> the rise is so important. you interact with them you see their human character, what they believe in and why. because that is the most important element that i find useful, because leadership is based on your character and insight. >> who might switch, raise your hands? >> what advice would you give the candidates when you wake up in the morning what should they be saying to you tomorrow morning to get your vote tomorrow night. >> it is all about the debt. i haven't heard hardly anything about the debt on the republican

side. >> who are you leaning towards now? >> i would say probably rubio protest vote like what he was saying. trump is just -- you can't say bimbo regularly and it's not political correctness, it is just basic human decency. >> i want to make the point, megyn, they are not talking necessarily about issues. there is a lot of conversation about the attributes of the candidate you have to have the right policy but also the right persona. back to you. >> amazing. amazing group. i don't know who has doubts about the iowans but they should be removed now. joining me with more the chairman of the republican of iowa. can't image what it is like having the candidates show up where you work. oh wait they do where i work. for regular folks they have been saturated by these guys and their positions. what have you seen so far in terms of voter regulation? how big do you think it will be?

>> an hour ago republican party of iowa september out a memo to all 1,681 precincts saying, you need to make more copies of materials. >> voting cards? >> the materials that you need. >> why did you do that? >> what we are hearing on the ground anecdotally the weather looks like it will be cooperative in most of iowa. it is more of a hunch than anything else. you begin to feel it and also we are absolutely, our phone is ringing off the hook. 100 per hour. there are usually 4 or 5 an hour. >> where do i go? where do i caucus? >> how do i change my party. they are asking the question. >> if you are a democrat and you want to caucus as a republican tomorrow you can do it. >> absolutely. >> not every state allows that. what are you seeing in terms of momentum for the candidate? whose name keeps bubbling up

now? >> i would say the top three according to the des moines register poll i am hearing a lot about cruz and trump. the angst that you just heard from some of the folks in terms of how they are going to settle and who they are going to vote for, we are hearing that a lot. marco rubio, we are hearing his name quite a bit. to be honest with you, we still have people that are -- i can't think of any of the 11 candidates that today i haven't heard at least one republican mentioned. this thing is fluid. >> as a betting man, if you were a betting man. we have the river boat casino not far. would you put any money on the lower tier the guys in the 2 percent. do you think there's any chance they would have that surprise that level? you have a person that's in 10th place and they make that jump to 5th place, that's a 4th ticket out of iowa. you count up to 5 they have got

momentum. they have something they can take to new hampshire. >> explain on the republican side when they show up to caucus tomorrow night at 7:00 do they talk to each other, or is that only on the democratic side. is there a chance to persuade? >> almost every campaign will have somebody that will be at each of these 1,681 precincts that will speak for them. sometimes people come up and talk. never underestimate the power of that. i have heard so many stories of a farmer never heard him give a peep through out the years and he stands up and he moves to say something, that person has some power, that is more poreful than ads and more powerful than even the candidates. that's the power of the iowa caucus. such a neat process. that's why i promise you drama tomorrow. >> thank you. exciting. >> just for you. >> looking fore toward to it. you heard the top republican official predicting a big turnout. results could be driven by how

many voters show up. bre brit hume is next with an unpredictable vote. churches stores and dierns. he will bring us the ground troop and then hillary clinton is taking new heat tonight for her latest attempt to address the e-mail scandal looming over her campaign. we will fact they can her argument with one of the top national security lawyers in the country. wait until you hear what he's saying about her claims just ahead. >> there is no classified marked information on those e-mails sent or

>> he expects it to exceed 2012 numbers. results could change the results of election cycle some pun tidi are calling less predictable than ever. this is interesting. because according to the latest numbers donald trump has a 16 point lead among first time caucus goers if you ask all caucus goers including the experienced ones cruz has a 3 point lead. if they are seeing a surge, he's not giving an actual number to it but he's saying they are

telling them printout more materials. we need more. >> i think the polling suggests that donald trump does not need -- >> he doesn't need it. >> a big surge from big time voters. >> but it would help him. >> he is leading among those who describe themselves as mainstream republicans which means if all things are equal or we get a normal or perhaps large turnout he will be fine. if there's a huge surge of new voters, he could win going away. you know, i think this poll is suggested it's going to be tough for one of his challengers to over take him. >> speaking of which ted cruz is on the record as having said to a group privately that he believes trump wins in iowa looks like he's going to win new hampshire he will be unstoppable. >> that's a warning he's giving. one of the ways you can sometimes win over voters is to get them to be afraid of some other outcome.

so you say look this guy, they are all listening to cruz. this guy could be the nominee. you got to stop that. vote for me. it is not exactly true. if trump wins here cruz failed to stop shim. cruz is badly hurt. trump goes on to new hampshire that creates a band wagon effect you win the first two people think you are inevitable then you get on the band wagon you won the table and you are the nominee. >> do you believe in the rubio men tum. that's what they are calling it. >> i think rubio has something going on here. for a while his staff and team were trying to stir the pot a little bit to get people to say i wasn't thinking about rubio i didn't think he had a chance. now maybe he does. i will vote for him. you take it too far you create expectations you fail to meet. no matter how you see it it is losing which is always a danger in this game. >> politics is weird.

>> it is indeed. more with britt later. joining us now as well, you know these guys. i want to talk to them immediately. oh we have an introductory thought. here it is. the reporters who have covered iowa, they are bossy in the control room. they will tell you one of the best things to do is go out to the people. the people. >> how incredible, smart, committed the people of the united states are. it's incredible. they want to see america great again. it is very simple. they want to see our country be great again. >> we launched this campaign. the new york sometimes promptly opine cruz cannot win. because the washington elites despise him. i kind of thought that was the whole point of the campaign. >> the first thing i am going to do when i get to the oval office

i am going to repeal every single one of barack obama's unconstitutional executive orders. every single one of them. >> joining me chris star well politics editor and host of media buzz. good to see you both. >> you have to do that terrible thing and say i talked to five people and now i know everything of all times. >> you hear a little buzz. >> you go to rallies. that's where you go to events and talk to people. i went to church today and i had the most interesting conversation. one of the preachers there came up and said i love you p on the kelly files. tell mig gwinn i have to -- mey hello. this is a preacher. they have been talking about love and forgiveness. he said, i came down to trump. i said why?

he said, it's just the anger, it is just the anger. i thought, if we are at a point where even a preacher, even a man of the cloth -- >> maybe he liked that trump held up the bible? >> no. i liked the anger. he said his second choice was rubio. he said it wouhe would be okay rubio was nominee. it was important for the party to tell the party they are angry. >> this is one of the moments we are going to find out whether all of the rhetoric hearing about angry republicans wanting to over turn things the system is real or not. >> before coming over here i talked to a young women named jenny who is trying to decide between trump, cruz and rubio. she was disappointed in cruz over reports he only donated 1 percent of the incould am to the church. i talked to people, i am hearing a lot of good buzz will rubio.

it is anecdotal. i heard people swinging back and forth between rubio and carly fan. it is so con volume luted even the best pollster can capture none of the campaigns know what's going on. they try to down-play expectations. >> what per swadz them? if 25 percent are still persuadable with 24-hours left to go what does it? what pushes them over the edge between now and tomorrow? >> first of all you know some are lying. they are not persuaded. >> why are they saying that? >> they want to flatter themselves. >> they want to get on tv. >> they are considering all of the options. >> they want to talk to me outside of church. no. the reality is iowa wants you to pay attention to it. i will want us here tonight. >> they have won. they have won. what's your answer? >> the answer is this. it is pretty simple. ted cruz has the organization. he has the ground game he has the people. they are going to turnout for

him. the rest of it with rubio and trump, it is about the feeling. it's about the vibe. it's about the flow. people like to catch the flow. >> we pundits sometimes over analyze these things. one guy said he liked trump because his brother was in the military. i tell you the whole essence is retail campaigning going to coffee shops and state fairs. donald trump has done the big rallies. that seems to have worked. he hasn't done the 99 counties. if he wins it blows up the model. it blows up the model. >> who doesn't want a tour of the 757. >> shaking one hand at a time. becoming such a television campaign even in a state ike buy awe they take this stuff seriously. >> it will be hard tore this em to replicate that. it will be hard to replicate trump. what if the polls are wrong? rand paul is saying they are wrong and he will tell you why and what it means. >> big play for tomorrow's evangelical vote and show you

the latest from him and the iowa insider

>> rand paul is currently sitting in 5th in the latest poll. there is one big group of voters

that may not be showing up in any of the research. a group that he thinks could make for a big surprise when the results finally come in. joining me is senator rand paul. great to see you. why shouldn't we believe the polls? >> (chanting) >> i think some of the evidence is in the noise behind me. we have over 1,000 kids in northern iowa. the young people have called over a million people in iowa. we think we are going to surprise people. we think maybe the day of the pollsters being that accurate may be gone. there may be something surprising particularly if the kids show up and vote for me tomorrow. >> it happened with your dad who was underestimated by some polls. >> yup. he's here with me tonight. we had a big crowd.

a lot of my family is here. we are looking for a strong finish. we think in the debate we pointed out some of the inconsistencies with the others. >> who do you say is the main competition on the gop side? >> i think it's a variety of folks. i think our votes when you look at first, second, third choices it can be a variety of things. my voice is distinctive i am the only one saying you don't need to be locking up a generation of young people for marijuana. >> when i of these three positions for all of the young people we see behind you? >> a lot of it is privacy. i have three teenaged boys.

they communicate with all of their friends and family and everybody through their cell phone. they don't understand why the government would collect all of their phone records. i will tell you some of the loudest applause lines were i am not going to send them to another war. >> the conventional wisdom is there are three tickets out of iowa, you know, it's going to be they say according to cruz, trump, rubio, you reject that theory? do you also believe whoever is in the three that there are only three tickets out. >> many of the candidates, bush, kasich, christie, they are going out to new hampshire. i don't know if there's an exact number of tickets. many are placing more tickets on

new hampshire than iowa. if you don't do well you don't appear to be rising in iowa you are not doing well in new hampshire. there's a roller-coaster ride you can ride out of iowa and we plan to be right there. >> christie, is it carson that's the last one. we are going to hold you to that. (chanting) >> thank you for being here. good night to you. >> with the sanders verses clinton show down coming tomorrow mrs. clinton trying to explain her i mail candle hanging over her campaign. we a fact check of her claims one of the top national security lawyers in the country who knows a lot about what is classified and what's not. plus a new battle is breaking out in the fight for evangel val voters.

steve king is live with us.

>> breaking tonight in the final hours before the iowa caucuses republican frontrunner donald trump is taking to facebook to appeal to evangel val voters. >> i really appreciate the support given to me by the evangelicals. every poll shows how well i am doing with them. you know, my mother gave me this bible, this very bible many years ago, in fact it is her writing right here. she wrote the name and my address. it is just very special to me. and again, i want to thank the evelle cal -- evangelicals. i will never let you down. >> steve king an iowa congressman and republican and he's backing ted cruz for president. great to see you congressman. >> great to be here. thank you, megyn. >> what do you feel about his

chances? >> i think it is good. i think it is close to a photo finish. it is a binary decision for the voters that come out now. it is trump or cruz, cruz or trump. the people in this we need to send a thank you toward to the other -- thank you card to the others. >> for those people still struggling with that decision why? >> i think the difference is the poll is saying it is heading that way. so the people that are loyal say huckabee and santorum, maybe carson it is nice they worked all of this. we are thankful they are candidates but it is at a point where we have at opportunity to advance a full spectrum constitution christian conservative to the white house who understands the article 3 and will make the appointments to the supreme court and dirk the debt of the country into a positive direction. that's a decision. with the evangelical commercial i heard donald trump's speech before liberty university i saw it live. used a couple words of profanity that are prohibited on the

campus along with the way he referenced the bible. i think that voice doesn't resinate quite the way he thinks it does. >> fox news poll shows ted cruz 31 percent donald trump 39 percent marge row rubio with 10 percent and the des moines register poll says 47 percent of iowans are evangelicals they are evenly divided among the two top men. >> that sounds like a dead heat. i think i know the people in iowa. represent northwest and north central iowa. they are driven by the values of life and marriage and religious liberty and constitutional values. with donald trump's record it doesn't support that. so he makes a compelling argument. he's running a commercial right at them. but ted cruz's life does support that his life from on up where he was spoon fed the bible and the constitution at the kitchen table. i was spoon fed the code of iowa my bible was on the end table.

it goes in your phones. memorize it you debate it over texas and high school. he went off to law school and demonstrated his commitment to the constitutional religious principles. they fought nine times before the supreme court. if there are 2, 3 or 4 appointments to the united states supreme court coming up for the next president of the united states we better have a president who understands that or our constitution will be obliterated. >> what makes a difference? >> turnout. >> the difference is turnout. turnout we don't really know tip point. i will say this. we have a little number out there for viewers. i will pick 135,000. >> 122 last time around. >> this will be a record by 13 13,000 or so. if it is 135,000 or less ted cruz wins in iowa. if that number soars above in a significant way it is donald trump and he will have

accomplished something we have never seen before which would be this amazing turnout of people that have never gone to caucus before. >> steve king, fascinating. thank you. good too see you. >> thank you. >> in a new york times editorial the times suggested mr. trump uses his promise of a wall and the tactic to rile up voters writing quote at a meeting with the times editorial writers he talked about the art of applause lines. you know if it gets a little boring if i see people starting to think about leaving i can tell the audience, i just say we will about a wall and they go nuts. david wall is an torn and a big trump supporter. trying to take a shot at that maybe it's not heartfelt he is using it to rile people up. you buy had a? >> it is hard to find for me a bored person at a trump rally. i am not sure that ever happens.

the reality is the wall at this point is more than a physical object. when he refers the wall to stop immigrants and terrorists it's a symbol of regaining control of america on economical political and social level. it is something we haven't had the last seven years and it is something that is really appealing. we mentioned that people just jump on it and say yes it is the iron fist approach not the pretty please approach. >> earlier in the show we had a frank luntz focus group. one iowan was saying i don't like the language he uses. i don't like the language about women, et cetera, for me that's a turnoff. he said. does that bother you? >> i think megyn a lot of rock stars successful people, very talented genius people have he can sen electricities that -- h

sen trieses. i think if he could take them back he would. he is so out of the ordinary so unorthodox people grab on to that and say yes this is somebody who won't be a standard politician. will he take things and sort of twist them in a way they haven't been done before. when he wants to make america great, it is more of a movement than just a slogan. that is why they are grasping on to i am had. some of the things have been offensive. but you know what? it is just like they rub right off and it is working for him. >> let me ask you. we have known each other for a long time. you are a successful talented lawyer. do you consider yourself a conservative? are you one of the conservatives that says i don't care that he might not have been a lifelong conservative, how would you describe yourself? >> idealogically conservative maybe with libertarian bend as

well. this is what i think about that. a lot of people are condemning him and criticizing him saying he's flip flopped on issues. where are we heard that before, ronald reagan barack obama ted cruz on amnesty. donald trump can't evolve politically and others can is not acceptable. he's going to evolve. he lives he learns he is counseled by people. that is what gave him the current political bend he has now. i believe him when he says what he wants to do now as far as the second amend am and defunding planned parenthood. i believe when he says that he's go to stick to that. a lot of iowans do as well. >> we hope this time tomorrow whether he gets -- pulls out a victory. great to see you david. >> thank you megyn. >> hillary clinton getting called out for the e-mail questions dogging her campaign.

one of the nation's top national security lawyers he will fact check the claims that she is making now that she did nothing wrong here. don't miss it. >> there is no classified material. i am well aware of the classification requirements and did not send classified material. ♪

♪ it was always just a hobby. something you did for fun. until the day it became something much more. and that is why you invest. the best returns aren't just measured in dollars.

♪ >> that he is than 24-hours before iowans cast the first kuk cuss of the united states. hillary clinton is trying to get out of the e-mail scandal in her campaign. >> here in des moines tonight hillary clinton is making some of her closing argument. has one of the best crowds of this entire campaign. over 2600 people as they tshe to push back against bernie sanders. they are locked in a dead heat as her big lead has evaporated in large part because of the e-mail controversy. people have the eyebrows raced because of an explanation she gave about why this controversy dogged her. she gave it on a local tv station who this morning.

the best ex plan may gos i heard of this yesterday from des moines from a man i shaked hands with. you drive through the same intersection for four years speed limit is 35 you move out of town they change it to 25 and they start sending tickets to people who drove over 25 when the speed limit was over 35. >> it would be like somebody in the department of transportation setting speed limits let's say the speed limit was 35. and then retro actively the police say, well you know what that speed limit should have been 25. let's go back and look at anybody who drove down that road and exceeded 25. >> sounds awfully similar to what she is saying today she heard just yesterday gives you

an idea of one of the reasons why this question of trust, being honest and dog her through out the campaign. we will find out tomorrow night whether it matters in a democratic caucus. it could be something that is bigger problem for her in a general election if she gets past sanders. megyn? >> ed, is any other network going to fact check her on that? people are laughing. everybody in here is like -- it is obvious what happened. >> right. she is saying it was told to me yesterday the guy was shaking my hand yesterday. then there's a tape where she said the same thing three weeks ago. >> in the first take did she say somebody told it to her or was she saying it herself. maybe she had a conversation with the guy yesterday. you know what it is just like he repeated it back to her? >> maybe the man heard her saying it three weeks ago and repeated it back to her. that might be the best explanation. >> the e-mail comes up in almost every interview. it was no exception when she

appeared with george stephanopolous at abc news. >> what do you know about those e-mails that we don't. >> here's what i know. i know that this is a continuation of the story in the last few months. there is no classification on the e-mails sent or received me. >> the nondisclosure agreement you signed as secretary of state says that's not that relevant. it is marked or classified and that all of you are trained to treat all of that sensitively and should know the difference. >> of course. that's exactly what i did. i take classified information very seriously. look, as i have said many times it was permitted. my predecessors had engaged in a similar practice. it was not the best choice. >> we wanted to fact check that. we reached out to mark. he's a national security lawyer who represents covert

intelligence officers all of the time. his firm is handling three lawsuits seeking mrs. clinton's e-mail from the state department. great to see you. let's start with this claim that there were no markings on these document oos saying classified so she is exonerated on that bas basis. let's play the sound bite. >> when you receive information of course there has to be some marking some indication somewhere down the chain they thought this was classified and that was not the case. true or false? >> false. any that is classified is supposed to be properly marked. you could obviously have e-mails that are not marked. it was charged to the espionage act and he had classified

information. that was not marked. >> she is not saved once and for all by the fact that the documents may not have had the marking classified on them. that is a red herring. >> as was said in the abc interview. secretary clinton signed the same secrecy nondisclosure obligations that all of us do. when we come across classified information even when not marked we are supposed to report it to the government. i have done that multiple times. >> you can't get classified information off of the classified system and put it on the nonclassified system. watch, listen here. >> you can't get information off the classified system in the state department to put on to an unclassified system no matter what that system is. >> true or false? >> well, it's probably true. but that's not what any one has alleged. the state department system i presume, i haven't worked on it specifically, like many of the

other analeses so that there are precautions and limitations on printing information on the classified system. using e-mail with the classified system. what is alleged here is someone took a sentence or so the brown cow jumped over the moon isn't a classified document. if it you take that sentence and type it in an unclassified e-mail it doesn't mean that sentence is now unclassified. it means it is not in the original classified document. that's what is being alleged for the most part as far as we know. >> when you hear -- i mean, how do you see this situation? what is your overall take on her maintaining 1200 documents they now say on an unsecured server that were classified? >> in fact the explanation you heard in the earlier segment with abc she was talking apples and oranges. there's a difference between classified information and using this private server. that is what some of the predecessors did. not a private server but at least sending e-mails on a

private e-mail ask t account. nobody was sending classified information on a classified system. i have seen pundits on the left or the right saying there's no way she will be prosecuted, she definitely will be prosecuted. the who, what, why, whens we are waiting to see. i need to see the context of some of these documents and what information is at issue. what i do see from a political standpoint is whoever is advising her is giving her poor advice factually speaking. she is making the wrong argument. it enables those of us who have no -- nothing in this fight. i don't care who wins. i am going to be suing whoever is in the white house come next year. for her to be able to tee this up. >> i have to cut you off. >> stick to the real facts. >> coming up against a hard break. thank you for being

>> see who shows up for a special kelly file tomorrow night at 11:00 p.m. live from iowa. thank you for watching ever