cruz. >> in closing, if y'all agree with me that it's now or never, that the stakes have never been higher, come out tomorrow night and us. stand and speak for us. if we stand together, we will win. bring others. commit right now to pick up the phone this election matters. >> i believe i will win the states that the republicans never even put down as a possibility. i mean, we are going to win virginia. we are going to win michigan. hey, i am going to bring the car industry back into michigan. >> the polls have done nald trump leading ted cruz by about 5 percentage points. polls can be unreliable so we look to the third and that is marco rubio pulling behind the top two but he is hoping to surge beyond them in an

unexpected case here. >> the deal with iran i will cancel it my first day in office. >> making his promises of what he will do once he is elected president. the caucusing begins this evening for democrats and republicans. the challenge for them other than trying to get the most people in the state to caucus for them the weather. a blizzard is supposed to begin late this evening. >> rich edson in waterloo. thank you, vich. >> it is a fight race on the democratic side as hillary clinton and bernie sanders are head to head. we have good morning, caroline. >> good morning to you. bernie sanders says it comes down to this. if, woulding class people, if low income people show up to the caucuses tonight he will win this thing. however if they don't it could be hillary clinton's to lose. a poll has clinton up by 3

points. >> i will do i thinkic to make sure the campaign we run will flekt the value. for those of you weighing your options i hope i will be able to persuade you. the stakes in this election will be hire. >> she has really good people so i am not knocking them. the excitement and energy is with our campaign. what is our campaign doing so sfwhel a radical concept, we are telling the mere people the truth. >> she is still being doged by the e-mail scandal. they said they had 22 e-mails top secret so secret they couldn't release them. the clinton campaign says none of the e-mails were marked classified at the time.

stay warm. we are hours away from the first votes cast in iowa. what does the iowa state rally matter? what are the caucuses? with us is eric erickson. what is the deal with iowa and the iowa caucuses and why do they matter? explain it to everyone else. >> it is a greatest of the ground game of the candidates. you have to p spend a lot of time going door to door meeting voters getting them to go to the polls. caulk kuks are different than primaries. they are not open all night. instead you have to show up at 7:00 p.m. central time tonight the doors close add plan to be there for an hour where you hear pitches from candidates in the room. if you are a democrat you cast an open ballot, either show your

happened or move in the various parts of the room depending which wcandidate you support. when with they are doing is picking preseat delegates to go to a party meeting that will support candidates. eventually it will go to the candidacy in september. >> over 1,000 counties to be specific about them they will be at the locations trying to pay those voters at the last minute. who has the momentum? >> marco kul yo has been. typically the guy in third place tends to sur pleaprise people w the first and second people started battling in it. just that going said p you know

what i am talking aboutnd probably can't mobilize people. no one roy howard dean collapse in 2004 or barack obama or mick muck bee put in 202 through 2016. the vibing cuss voters are more than poles. they might not show up today. never ne. thank you. >> dur. hours ago. >> ee roy has moshe insignature of you donald trump sledding its way on the brink of the first vote of the poll. ted cruz in 2nd p 23 percent. oo talk show host.

democratic strategist and campaign director for center for american progress action fund. let's start with you tammy. we saw the poll numbers. ted cruz is at a statistical tie. >> what's krog as eric was just saying marco rubio number has been very interesting. the he did very well in the pox race. his father did us well. i think he is going to be in this process. for those of us who don't like the establishment, seeing jeb bush continue to drug el. i like that yet it is a surprise to many people. he has been focusing on new hampshire schiff. he may be able to stay a little bit up there. it ends up being about terneout

it is not just the number of people that turnout and those are dn cats. if more people anonymous if they were registered before and haven't been voting thaet where it p down. he was saying that the polls skew older and he has mowninger societiers i guess my question would be could we see a surprise from perhaps a rubio in this particular situation? >> yeah, i do think that really a lot of options are on the table here. trump has been polling consistently heyed from the againing of the polls. that is almost unprecedented. you don't just pats ball loet and leave everyone is in the room together.

there's a lot of opportunity for people and they are encouraged for people convincing each other of their bad candidate ogses. the other question is how regular vant if is this, a lot of republicans don't think either lump or freeze a tanz night that can actually win. new hampshire said lae lao it really nor it is a place can do dole in new hampshire. a much more moderate state. >> many say that or donald trump not winning in iowa cause him to

lose some of the momentum. it has been important to his campaign. thank you very much. coming up in a half an hour testimony lee and -- tammy and hasn't here. >> the iowa caucuses are finally here. where exactly is iowa? steve doocy hits the streets for a hawkeye state edition of dues on the lose. >> everybody is talking about iowa these days so you must know where it is at? >> somewhere ore here. >> somewhere in here. >> right here? >> that's so close. that's illinois. >> what do you know about iowa? >> the potato state. >> actually, they are not. it is idaho. >> which of these items does not come from iowa, the corn, ethanol potatoes or captain

crunch berries. >> crunch berries. >> berries. >> captain crunch. >> think of another eye state. >> those are potatoes. >> idaho. idaho. >> did you ever call them potatoes? >> you say tomato, i say tomato. >> iowa the home of the world's largest quart, strawberries pork or ox of ladies. >> strawberries? >> makes no sense. >> you feel like you know a lot about iowa so far. >> where is it? >> i would not have a clue. >> more right about there. >> i was born in iowa. i think we have got some you

cube video. listen to this. >> okay. we don't have the video. one of these people once called iowa home. >> ronald reagan? >> yes, that's right. >> reagan. >> thees right. he lived in davenport and as a loving parting gift we are going to give you a sofa. >> no way. >> you are right, we are not. >> two of these dos the eye kau abo caucuses. hilary and her husband. i am a ford not a lincoln tochlt. >> one of these people mott hap>> ill go with al harp ton. >> tloos no real conflict. >> when you see al sharpton you

say zero? >> pretty much f.>> is it true about the rain in spain? >> rain in spain fall mainly on the plane? >> charlie, you are a professional journalist. two of these people lost in iowa. >> he did to pat roberts. >> i believe it was 1970. >> maybe this card is wrong. >> we need a new card. >> what else? >> draw what the state of iowa looks like. >> like this. i am right. >> you are a fed-ex guy, right? >> you would know where iowa>> you would hough where iowa is on the map. >> you would have to be there overnight. >> that's colorado.

that's february nebraska. that's kansas. that's wyoming. you already did that one. >> are you sure you work for fed-ex? >> hopefully everyone at home is working on their 9th grade map. the time is now 13 minutes after the hour. will history repeat itself? >> we are taking a loussier look. why our next guest says marco rubio could be on the rise. ♪ are you ready? are you ready? i mean, really ready? are you ready to open? ready to compete? ready to welcome? do you look buttoned up, prepared, professional?

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>> welcome back. the pressure is on to win iowa. if a candidate makes it there, will he or she make it every

before? is we have red alert politics with us with what history tells us about the hawkeye state. thank you for joining us this morning. >> what does iowa predict will the rest of the season? >> the winner of iowa is more likely just as likely to win the nomination 8 years ago than they are this year if you look back to 1980. george h.w. bush won iowa won the nomination eight years later. bob dole won in 1998 didn't get the nomination until 96. since then i had two winner that is won iowa that year and won the nomination that year. >> that's on the republican side. on democrats it's different story. >> on democrats it's a different story. with the democrats truly hillary. if if bernie wins it could be a really big shake up. for both of the races the history doesn't matter. we are seeing two really bizarre

races hanning. if trump loses tonight he will be a loser. he put all of thiz chip -- cruz put all of his chips into iowa. with he will learn after tonight who is going to be our real top two. it will be between rubio trump and cruz. if trump or cruz lose i think rubio has a chance to shoot up in new hampshire. >> he is in third place right now and he had momentum going for him at this point. what happens after iowa and new hampshire in terms of the next state in could be south carolina. south carolina does do things on its own. they voted for newt gingrich in 2012. what we are looking for tonight i think the people who are going to out perform the polls marco rubio, rand paul, young people aren't polling as much rubio has been surging anyway. he has a young contender coming

out for him. rand paul should have some of his dad's support. his dad won last time. he's only polling at 5 percent. what does it mean for new hampshire? it could be an interesting rate. >> 2012 santorum won iowa but it was announced romney won. even though it was changed later romney histill had the roam men tum. if you get a close second place a close third place you are getting as much the same of tell gats. he probably has two or three or delegates more. if he wins tonight he is going to win new hampshire. the we have to remember that people don't want to have trump they can add knowledge that.

westbound stays in the pop 2 or 3 per in there. >> ron hire, thank you for fog that. >> enemy had been anothers gentles w i think it landed last tuesday. one second it's there. then, woosh, it's gone. i swear i saw it swallow seven people. seven.

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>> the administration getting a real slap in the face. iran awarding victory medals to navy commanders who humiliated american sigh lowers. >> kristin fisher is live with the latest on this. >> good morning. these medals are the same medals that are given to iranian war heros. it is one of the highest honors iran coupe preem leaders can give to a military leader. he is giving them to five

members of the iranian navy for capturing ten u.s. sailors earlier this month. he posted this of the iranian commanders seeing the e-mails for capturing and intruding the u.s. they both said this is one big mistake that they accidentally crossed into iranian wuters by iowan of the u.s. sailors on their needs. they are tub pise the publically who later acknowledged on "fox & friends" that those emergencies infuriated him. as a former sailor member of the military i was infuriated this.

i express that to our part. >> the announcement of the medals did happen on a sunday. neither the secretary of state or other obama administration official has commented. >> kristin fisher in washington. thanks. >> thanks. trouble for trump, could an upset be in his future? why our next guest thinks so. we will be live from our election coverage. r a microscop, r a microscop, we can see all the bacteria that still exists. polident's unique micro clean formula works in just 3 minutes, killing 99.99% of odor causing bacteria. for a cleaner, fresher, brighter denture every day. what's that, broheim? i switched to geico and got more. more savings on car insurance? yeah bro-fessor, and more. like renters insurance. more ways to save. nice, bro-tato chip.

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>> it is monday february 1st. the road to the white house begins today. we are hours from the iowa caucuses. >> republican and democratic candidates making their final plea to voters.

oh oo if you are sick if you have 100 degree fever, doesn't matter. get up and caucus. >> we will make you proud. with he will be proud of the fact that you caucused for me. not only will the entire country be looking at iowa the rest of the country will. >> sign up for caucus. don't worry about the weather. >> we have team coverage live across the state. carol ann shieb lee is in des moines. >> first let's start with rich edson who is life in waader lieu. good morning, rich. >> they will have a rally in the building behind me. we will find out whether they will become caucus vote he is or goers eventually.

donald trump and ted cruz are in the lead. marco rubio running third is trying to reestablish himself by detracting the frontrunners. >> senator cruz built his campaign on the fault that he is the only conservative in the race. he is a supporter of realizing people that were here illegal. he was a supporter of that until he was called out on it. one of the candidates has fallen dramatically has been ben carson. he is trying to establish his lead. >> i think people actually when it comes down to the actual vote will be looking to listen to their heart. i think everybody will be completely shocked. >> polls aren't the best

predictor in the caucuses. not everyone is at the top of the polls will emerge on top. you remember even last time the thought was that governor mitt romney had won the iowa caucuses in 2012 where it was later when all of the votes were counted that it was in fact mike huckabee had won. so the caucuses begin this evening. perhaps contending with snow which supposed to role through here and potentially be blizzard like conditions tomorrow. oh oo thank you, rich. bernie sanders and hillary clinton are now head to head. carol ann shooieb lee joins us with more. >> the latest poll out this weekend has hillary clinton up in bernie sanders.

the iowa caucuses are unique they are designed to let people change their minds on who they want to vote for from the time they walk into the caucus site. >> not only will the entire country be looking at iowa, much of the world will be looking at iowa. they will see whether or not iowa is prepared to move the country away from establishment politics monday night could be an historic night a oo don't worry about the weather i have it on good guidance the storm won't start until after midnight. let's start a storm of movement towards the future that we want to make together. >> hillary's worst nightmare is a repeat of 2008. we were here covering the caucus sites. the clinton supporters were there with their cookies out and

arguments ready to go when a storm of 20 somethings came in they were barack obama supporters and he won the state. clinton supporters tell us her ground game is proven a lot in the last eight years. >> thank you so much. in des moines this morning. a blizzard watch is in effect in the hawkeye state. how will it impact the voter turnout? we are in the weather center tracking that. she has it on good guidance that storm is not happening until after midnight. is that coming from you? >> we have seen changes in the last couple of minutes across the state of iowa. we saw blizzard watches get upgraded to blizzard warnings. some were changed to winter storm warnings. it may not be as big an issue in places like des moines. overall we know the worst is forecast for overnight tonight and into the day tomorrow.

we don't really predict significant impact as we head into the evening hours tonight. temperatures ahead of the storm will be quite cold. you have to bundle up as you head out to the polls. temperatures in the 30's and possibly the 40's at times across the state. it is heated up by 9:00 p.m. eastern time we could see showers moving through the rest of the united states. >> maria molina. >> hours to go until the iowa caucuses. who pulls ahead and falls behind? keeping a tight grip on her ever bernie sanders in the des moines register poll. 45 to 42 percent. that is a close one. we have radio talk show host and strategist and campaign

director for american progress action fund. thank you for sticking around for us this morning. emily i am going to start with you. the numbers 45 to 42 percent. who do you think is going to move heyed and who is going to fall behind? >> i think sanders has done better han expected. interesting about the iowa caucus on the democratic side about this process it encourages open debate. it will be interesting. they will show up and physically move to their physical camp and there will be opportunity to convince one another of the opposing views to move floo the other camp. there's an element of peer pressure there. it was never going to look wild,

never look that wild because she has been around for a long time. caucus goers internalize the fact that they support her but they didn't show up in 2008 and are determined to show up this time for her. >> do you think that is going to spell trouble for hillary clinton? >> it could a little bit. but look back on 2008 her only real issue is the fact that john edward won the vote. he wasn't in iowa. >> even though the younger voters are coming out for obama. >> when you are thinking about especially this time around with the weather you have dynamic hillary core supporters come out traditionally who voted before. voting is a habit. we are used to doing it.

older individuals aren't used to driving themselves. who is organized better the sanders campaign or clinton campaign. they are excited with the rallies with the big stadium speeches and the ideas that are being discussed. it is very different and more difficult by the democrats because of the rigmarole you have to go through which is different for the repub dans. that is more intimidating on the end of the i'll aisle. they stand in the room and nothing is private. for people uncomfortable with that that's another reason not to go.

the republicans have a private voting system. >> we will see what happens. >> sri exciting. glad it is here finally. >> it will be an interesting night. >> the time is 38 minutes after the hour. a close call how a police officer managed to walk away from this out of control truck fire. and are to stop braing rolling your own kid. are you ready? are you ready? you've got to be ready. i mean, really ready. are you ready to open? ready to compete? ready to welcome? the floors, mats, spotless.

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>> here's what's coming up on "fox & friends" in the next few minutes. talking closing the deal on the caucus. we have pitches from the four leading candidates who is able to do the job on the final day before the big caucus day? also on our show iowa governor will be right here. why he appeared with governor crist tee but he did not endorse last night. senator joanie hurertz is the superstar. she will be here. a huge upset may be on this table. seems almost as nice almost as nice as greta van susteren who has a show at 7:00. the inside story of what is happening on caucus day and in 13 minutes the buffet opens. i will finally get breakfast. first these two lovely women.

>> i have lived in manhattan all my life. my views are different than if i was in iowa. >> they are different. >> it is time for a president who would put their left hand on the bible and right hand in the air and keep their promise to uphold the constitution. we have had 80 years since a president has been willing to do that. >> i have been doing deals for a long time. that's what i do. >> guys like ted cruz will never make a deal. >> donald trump on top with 28 percent. how will the latest polls and political ads impact today's voting? lee carter. good to see you. >> great to see you. we are having a blitz of ads right here on the last segment. how will this effect what's happening tonight?

oo we know 45 percent of voters are willing their change their minds. these attack ads are adding elements of shadow of doubt across voter's minds right now. they are going to be important. they are going to be hearing other arguments. if there's that doubt i am not sure i am going to trust him or like him they are going to swing. when you see the trump new york values ad, he really belittled that. am i willing to listen to somebody else? it is really important. >> candidates are going to the rallies listening to the candidates. rallies ne in particular talk basically to see, is this man really an evangelical? they know he's not an evangelical, but is he true to his word about their faith. it's interesting when it comes to voting.

let's look at the latest polls we're seeing. so as far as the choice of iowa gop presidential candidates, if a calk was held today, let's look at what the numbers say. okay, so we have donald trump at 28%, ted cruz, 23%, marco rubio at 15%. then we go from there. now in the past, we've seen these poll numbers aren't necessarily accurate. you know, back in 2012, we looked at rick santorum. a few weeks before the caucuses, he was in sixth place. by the final polls, he was i think third. then he ended up win, satellite. >> i think it's unbelievable what can happen in iowa. part of that is because you don't have to register in advance. a lot of polling is done with likely voters. likely voters are those who voted last nightmare. people going out for trump are unlikely voters. we might see trump's numbers come up. on the other hand, we'll see people voting against trump. as many as love him, hate trump. they'll be energized, too, and might be coming out in droves that we're not expecting.

anything can really happen tonight. >> all right. we'll see how it goes. lee carter, thank you very much for joining us. >> thank you. >> thank you very much. the time now is about ten minutes until the top of the hour. is it really all about iowa, or are other states more important? no republican has ever become president without winning one state. we'll tell you which state up next. avo: when laquinta.com sends craig wilson a ready for you alert the second his room is ready, ya know what he becomes? client: great proposal! let's talk more over golf. craig: great. client: how about over tennis craig: even better. avo: a game changer! avo: the ready for you alert, only at laquinta.com. do you sign invoices likeour fathey're autographs?en, then you might be gearcentric. right now,

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500 calories or less. at panera. food as it should be. welcome back to "fox & friends." all eyes on iowa today. but did you know that since 19 6 the hawkeye state has the worst track record actually in the nation for choosing the eventual republican nominee? >> not the case in south carolina. in fact, in south carolina, six out of seven candidates who won the primary there went on to the gop nomination. so is it really all about iowa? >> fox news contributor eric erickson is back. he says no and joins us with his take. figure it out for us. what is important here? >> well, you got to remember so you have iowa and new hampshire, then south carolina. iowa tends to go much more evangelical, social conservative. new hampshire tends to go much more secular centrist to liberal republican. south carolina brings them all

together. you have -- >> i'm going to call for the full screen -- >> the higher income voter. then you have the more rural south carolina republicans, christian evangelicals and picks between them. iowa, new hampshire forced people to drop out. then you try to get a nominee in south carolina. >> let's look at some other information. a lot of people are talking about this in iowa, that it's a two-man race, trump versus cruz. we have the des moines likely preference among likely gop-goers, i'm having trouble pulling up the full screen. it says trump at 28%, cruz at 23%, rubio at 15%. that's significantly down there. could we see a surge from rubio in this? >> you could. mike huckabee in 2008, rick santorum in 2012 were not the frontrunners. that i certainly had momentum going in as marco rubio does now. when the first place and second place poll winners in 2008 and 2012 started beating each other up, the third guy ended up

winning in iowa. we're seeing that marco mentum, as people are calling it. it could help marco as he goes to south carolina and new hampshire with momentum. >> in terms of the democrats, though, it's not the same issue. and it really does tell the story a lot more frequently from democrats, right? >> very much so. if you look at john kerry, he was dead in the water in 2004. then heward dean collapsed in iowa and then revitalized the campaign. if hillary clinton loses to bernie sanders in iowa, it would single serious signals to democrats that she may be weak. >> now you know, we're seeing these attack ads last minute. we're seeing the ground game heat up. one thing we haven't seen is the new emails that the state department will not release from hillary clinton that they say that they were top secret level. but bernie sanders says he's not

going there is that a mistake, and would it have more impact well, to a degree.end game? one of the other downsides to hillary clinton is she's limited her debate performance. republicans tend to have stronger general election performances because they have a much broader field. they have to go through a lot of debates. with hillary not having a lot of debate in the primary and not being challenged on emails by her candidates, she's going to have a hard time shaping messages in general. trust me, the republicans are already polling on the idea of emails. they will have a message for hillary clinton on emails in the general election. and she's got no time in the primaries to test a rebuttal. >> all right. erick, thank you for your insight. >> close, 45% to 42%. let's keep talking about the caucuses. who do you think will take iowa and why? log on to "fox & friends" facebook page now to weigh in. # keeptalking. >> i'm sure lots of people have insight on this one this morning.

will be an exciting night for everyone. >> we'll be back early tomorrow. 4:00 a.m. eastern time. we'll bring you up to date overing that happens. >> we sure will. see you all then. "fox & friends" starts right now. >> bye. if we could come out of iowa with a nice victory, it's important. if the doctor says it doesn't matter, get up and caucus. get up and caucus. >> get up and caucus tomorrow night. the storm is not coming until after midnight. if you stand up for me tomorrow night, i will stand up and fight for you. >> i will unite this party and the conservative movement. i'm f i'm our nominee -- if i'm our nominee, i'm going to win. >> the energy is with our campaign. >> why me? i have a proven record y. me? i'm a proven leader. why me? whenever there was a problem, i didn't cut and run. >> you're not going to walk out