martha: tonight you and i will be the ones are the information. i'll know what people are saying in the entrance poll. bill: i'll be at micro some of the center. they will file the results by waive an app. they are using an app in 2016. good luck. we'll see you tonight, everybody. jenna: all eyes on iowa today. i'm jenna lee. jon: i'm jon scott. all the debating and polling comes down to this. turnout is the key in iowa with close races on both sides of the aisle. mike emanuel an in-depth look at

the establishment and the outsiders. james has the feel the burn momentum of the sanders campaign. >> outside the bernie sanders headquarters, epicenter of the bernie sanders' surge. >> the anointed candidate, the inevitable candidate, it will be interesting to see, we all know who the inevitable candidate for the democratic nomination will be. a lot has happened in the last nine months and the inevitable candidate is today not quite so inevitable. reporter: polls last month shows vermont senator bernie sanders trailing hillary clinton by an average of 16 points. today "the des moines register"

poll shows them statistically tied. everyone knows sanders enjoys a huge majority ofout voters. among voters make less than $50,000 sanders enjoys a 20-point lead over hillary clinton. reverses entirely for affluent voters with clinton trouncing sanders by 24 points. observers saw another reason for the sanders surge. he has gotten a free ride in media terms. he has not been seen as a serious competitor so his past positions and philosophy has not been examined in detail. reporter: sanders and clinton

raised and spent roughly the same amounts of money in the fourth quarter, on the order of $14 million. but none of bernie sanders' have yet maxed out. more than a third of hillary clinton's have. jenna: with donald trump and ted cruz seen as the frontrunners in iowa, serve of the establishment candidates are struggling to break out. our senior political correspondent mike emanuel in des moines. >> new jersey governor chris christie is making his final pitch to voters hoping it will make a difference tonight. in that lane you have florida center marco rubio. and if you are a establishment voter and you like governors there is three of them on the bam ought, jeb bush, chris christie, and john kasich.

here is a sample of their final pitch to voters. >> i am who i am. i laid everything out. i have a positive vision of what we can do. i can bring people together. people who studied carefully said that in the newspaper endorsements. either they are going to like me or they are not. >> i have been tested by every challenge that can be put in front of you as a public servant and here i stand ready to take on the next crisis and ready to take on the next mission. ready to rebuild our nation and ready to make us proud again. >> there are two other lanes on the republican side. a new one with donald trump and a traditional conservative lane featuring senator ted cruz. an iowa political expert told us don't count out the establishment. >> he has a potential to finish higher. if cruz' support fade and the trump supporter don't turn out, rubio could do well here and

turn out to be first in the establishment lane. reporter: senator marco rubio told supporters nobody is going to win the nomination tonight. it's the first step in a long process. but it's critical, especially for those who don't finish near the top three. jon: for more on the iowa caucuses, let's bring in lisa booth and jeffrey basil, former senior aid to senator hillary clinton. a couple of the leading in the contenders, leading in the players on the stage could not be more opposite. you have got bernie sanders who is an avowed democratic socialist. loves the idea of income redistribution. then you have got donald trump on the republican side, a guy who brags about his billions that he's self-made and all of that.

what are you looking for out of iowa tonight? >> it's interesting and you are right to point out the vast contrast that we have seen not on among bernie sanders and hillary clinton but also on the right with someone like donald trump who has been leading in the polls and was leading in the latest bloomberg and register poll. i think right now what we'll see tonight if someone like trump is the one who wins and bernie sanders wins. it's iowa voter thumbing their nose at the establishment. we have known so far there have been changes on both sides of the aisle to both nominating calendar, also to debates. so we'll see how if those changes have led to sort of the rights of donald trump and bernie sanders. tonight is the biggest test for donald trump. 40% of individual surveyed in

that bloomberg-des moines register poll then donald trump could win iowa tonight. on * is it a turnout on the democratic side as well? >> i think it is. young voters or those vote more don't normally come out to caucus are going to make a huge different in this race, both the democrats and republicans. what i'm also interested in, because the democratic rules in iowa are complicated, i'm interested in looking to see what martin o'malley voters do if they feel they don't have enough to get their candidate over that threshold. if think a 15% or more threshold you need to get, and if martin o'malley supporter don't meet that threshold, there is a period of type when the other candidates can you them to their side. what doesn't get discussed as

much as his supporters may make a difference in this race after all. but my strong belief is if hillary clinton does you think out we'll see what happens in new hampshire. but the fire wall becomes south consider and nevada. jon: after the last go-round there was a feeling there had been too' debate and candidate pounding each other. they changed the rules a little bit. has it worked this year? >> that's to be seen. there has been a lot of krmts convincing the primarily calendar is going to he bolden other states with the fec primary when we get to the winner take all. but what's interesting is how the crowded primary field is actually help something one like

ted cruz. if you look at a lot of where the carson supporters would go if he's not in the race. those voters would go to ted cruz. we see a variety of candidates from jeb bush to chris christie to john kasich. if those individual were in the race that would probably embolden and help someone like marco rubio. it's interesting how this crowded primary field seeped to benefit donald trump. right now he's poised -- he's leading in the in the polls in new hampshire and south carolina. if he win, the big question is can he be stopped? jon: if your position with the democratic state party you are not supposed to be making endorse thes, but are you making predictions. >> i can't make even doarptses but the government, boivment s. senators and just about every democratic member of congress in new york has endorsed hillary clinton. so that's where i have got to go.

jon: do you think she'll win it? >> i think we wined iowa. given the fact that bernie sanders' numbers are so high. it's a neighboring state with his hope state of vermont. a significant number of african-american voters and latino voters in south carolina will be where the rubber meets the road and will be the true test of bernie sanders in this race. on the republican side, will we see on a republican side something the democrats saw in 1992. will the young candidate, the one that get out, the young people perhaps, the marco rubio. even if he doesn't win, dose carry that momentum through to new hampshire and change the narrative. jon: what are the prospects that two polar opposites that bernie

sanders and donald trump could come in winners for both parties. fascinating process and it could happen. jenna: it' a busy day in iowa. i wanted to show you this live shot. chris christie holding a town hall at drake university. mike emanuel is there covering the event. we are going to be talking to brad about what he learned from chris christie who has been making moves in iowa and some say new hampshire as well. we'll be watching the candidate as they crisscross across the state before their last-minute appearances. in the meantime first she pleaded the guilty to the gruesome murder of her boyfriend. now jessica linski says she is innocent. will an approaching store keep caucus-goers at home? which democrat and republican

candidate do you think will win the iowa caucuses. join the conversation. you're a young farmhand and e*trade is your cow. milk it. e*trade is all about seizing opportunity.

jon: now for some crime stories we are keeping an eye on. jury selection begins today in the murder trial of jessica alinski. she claims she is instrength in the shooting death of her boyfriend. prosecutors say she killed hip at point blank range and tried to make it look like a suicide. the teacher linked to the escape of three inmates from a california maximum security jail set to appear in court today. she was booked on suspicion of being an accessory to a felony. jenna: a winter storm barreling

towarded the hawkeye state today. maria molina is with us in the weather center. what are conditions supposed to be like this evening? reporter: there has been some alarm. when blizzard watches were issued be, people were like, oh, oh, will it affect the caucuses? the brunt of the storm is in the late-night hours. if you stay out late the we'll look for novel school up layings in the northern and western part of the state. you can see temperatures are forecast. so you can make it as warm as the 40s during the afternoon hours. that's above average for this time of year across that part of the country. you can see the withs will be much lower than that. even the teens across northern parts of iowa.

as the temperatures continue and the wind chills continue. it will feel as cold as 30 degree. as far as precipitation with that storm system. there is a chance that by 9:00, 10 well, you could start to see rain or snow showers mixing in. most of the heaviest stuff it many forecast into the overnight hours and continuing throughout the day tuesday. we could see seeing hefty snowfall totals with a foot snow possible in some areas. the storm farther west starting to spread snow across kansas and nebraska. a big chunk of iowa and blizzard watches in effect across southern parts of minnesota. the snowfall accumulation laying coulding significant. it could be a not some spots.

across iowa we are looking at 6-10 inches of snow. but it's that in combination with the strong winds that could exceed 30 miles an hour. that will be producing whiteout conditions and blizzard-like conditions across the plains. on the warm side of this system tomorrow we have a big concern. anywhere from the gulf coast up to the midwest. you are looking at a risk for severe weather. that could be firing up those storms and the greatest risk area is anywhere from kentucky down into mississippi. that's where we are looking at the threat for tornadoes. we'll look at that addition to damaging winds and hail. jenna: it's something to pay attention to. maria, thank you. jon: we told you dozens of walmart stores are closing.

that's sparking bargain hunters to scour for merchandise. but they are not keeping it for themselves. what we can learn about last years deadly amtrak accident. ? your dad won't call an exterminator... can i call you back, mom? he says it's personal this time... if you're a mom, you call at the worst time. it's what you do. if you want to save fifteen percent or more on car insurance, you switch to geico. it's what you do. where are you? it's very loud there. are you taking a zumba class?

jenna: dozen of walmart stores across the country getting ready to close. bargain hunters are scouring the clearance rack buzz they are not keeping the merchandise for themselves. instead they are selling it online trying make a profit.

amazon market place have made that easier but a lot of community being affect bid these closings as well as job losses. a story to watch. jon: we are after he waiting new information on what could have - could have caused the deadly amtrak wreck last year. there is word that another train got hit by an unknown object last night. reporter: why did the train take such a sharp curve at twice the speed limit before it jump'ed the track? today's release of datd data will include the information from the black box. it there include interviews with crew members and first

responders. the engineer who was at the control says he doesn't remember the crash and doesn't recall anything after ringing the train's bell three minutes before the curve. the investigators say he was not using his cell phone to text or make calls. they say that's drugs and alcohol was not a factor. this a possibility something hit the train after a grapefruit size impact was found on the train's windshield. today's release of information is what investigators will use to draw their conclusions into the cause of the crash. and we'll hear about the

research done into the safety. that report out at 1:00 today eastern. jon: looking forward to that. jenna: the eyes of the world will be on iowa as the official race kicks off. we are going to be keeping to bret baier about his take on what's going on. the number of people affected by the zika virus continues to rise. the world health organization is deciding whether to designate as a world health emergency. ♪

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jon: a quick look at what's still to come. we all know donald trump likes winning. will voters' actions back up donald trump's words and make him a winner. the zika virus linked with brain damage in students. two virginia tech students charged in the death of a 13-year-old girl who vanished from her bedroom last week. jenna: presidential hopefuls barnstorming across iowa. >> we feel good about our campaign. we not' an uphill climb. if i feel real positive by the.

>> we feel very good. we worked so hard. i have had a great operation here. so many young people, organizers who and out across the state. the thousands of volunteers. we did knock on 125,000 doors this past weekend. so we are very committed and energized and enthusiastic. jenna: no big deal, the caucuses are tonight. bret baier this iowa because it's a big deal. reporter: it is, jenna. jenna: you were with chris christie who was holding a townhall. tell us was your impressions were at that event. reporter: he had a tele-town hall with 6,000 people dialed into this conference call at drake university. then he was getting ready for an event with governor branstad.

he has had a lot of town halls here. he invested some time in iowa, but most of his time is spent doing town holes in new hampshire. he's leaving this afternoon to go back here. he told me he wants to be the to governor at the end of the night tonight, to be the top governor finishing. that means ahead of governor bush, governor kasich and former governor huckabee. if he does that, he feels he does well in this environment. jenna: it looks like he could do that but we'll wait and see what happens when we get the result tonight. it strikes me as interesting. there was a gop strategist who made a comment about donald trump saying he's almost no one's second choice. he thinks that may impact donald trump where chris christie might be somebody's second choice. that could give chris christie and others room for movement. what do you think of that

observation? reporter: i don't think christie is polling well in iowa. the campaign believes he can surprise and do better than people are saying going in. obviously the top tier is donald trump, ted cruz and marco rubio with the possibility that ben carson pulls out a strong fourth place or surprises even more. i think the real question is for the evangelical vote in iowa, the rick santorums, the mike huck bees, how do they factor in and how does that affect ted cruz in the final vote total. jenna: i know you spent time for events with bernie sanders and hillary clinton. as you take a look at that side of the race, what strikes you most about today and how important these last few hours are? reporter: the clinton machine as you know is very powerful.

but here in iowa it cement momentum has been on bernie sanders' side. it seems the excitement and turnout has been on the bernie sanders side. whether he can translate that the first-type caucus-goers much like donald trump will have to do, if those can materialize, hillary clinton could be in trouble in iowa. >> we are getting behind the scenes photos. can you take our voters behind the scenes what struck you most about being on the ground here and how are the preps going for tonight? reporter: we are always excited for a big election night. it's excited to get to real people voting instead of talking about polls ad nauseam. we are ready. our team is ready. we have a lot of expectations this vote could come in a lot sooner than last time. last time it was 2:00 a.m. in

the morning and we were chasing down a white pickup truck with a box of ballots from a precinct. this time i think it will be smoother. every place we can make a call, our decision team is going to make it as it happens. jenna: we did enjoy the 7 hours you spent on the air trying to track down that truck. reporter: i have got fox news catheter so i'll be ready to go. jenna: as long as you are prepared, i don't need to know the details. reporter: just kidding. jenna: you have big interviews with marco rubio and jeb bush as well. >> for marco rubio this is an interesting time. if he finishes and surges to a strong third, even a second, that could be a big game changer going down the road. jeb bush, his campaign is

relying heavily on new hampshire and that whole establishment lane, there is a battle. it's going to be next tuesday before we know who's going to come out of that lane to challenge either ted cruz or done are * or both. jenna: you mean who is going to be staying in the race as far as those individual who are quote-unquote establishment? >> the senator rubio, the chris christie, the john kasichs. and carly fiorina. i just talked to her here. she said she'll surprise in iowa. when we get votes it will be great to see. jenna: it will be great to see over the next week how the race shapes up. we like sharing them with our viewers here at "happening now." thank you so much. jon: the media have been counting down to the caucuses in

iowa for months now because it is the first contest where votes are actually cast that lead toward the presidential elect. but how big a role does iowa play in the race for the white house? joining us, family bruce, radio talk show host. also alan colmes. alan, you say -- you say the iowa caucuses are overrated? >> that's ridiculous. it's 92% white. 90% -- 19% actually show up for the caucus. it's not a primary, it's a caucus it's not representative of the rest of the country. baits' the first place that's voted pong the media gives the outside importance compared to the rest of the country. and on 1% of delegates come out of iowa.

jon: it's where the winnowing process begins. >> the last two who won, huckabee and and tore up didn't get the no nation on the republican side. jon: george w. bush won iowa. is he wrong, tape bruce? >> yes, 2008, when a pretty much unknown black american senator beat hillary clinton. but it's weird. those say iowa people within all those white people voted for him, too. and i also like the idea -- i know this bothers the liberals. there are state other than california and new york to thank you about. there is a thing called iowa and it's fabulous. this is what iowa and th the het of country shows us. it tells you what the average

american is thinking and what we are willing to do. what chances we are willing to take. >> i'm not putting down iowa. i'm talking about it relative importance. they have the best milkshake in the world. >> iowa for the democrats, the choosing obama sent a message to the rest of the country, if iowa can like him, let's give him a chance. that was a major message. this is why it' up per tough iowa is the first. it remind people there is a variety of ways to think. i think it's fabulous. i don't know what iowans are going do today or tonight but i think it will be important. jon: there are those who who argue in this era of social media when donald trump can send the out 6 million tweets a day

to his twitter followers. he doesn't need iowa to win the nomination. >> he goes to iowa, does a rally and he gets in his plane, the trump-mobile and snreeps his ivory tower. jon: are the traditional media and our covering a dying breed? >> yes. i don't know how much longer -- if iowa continues to not be able to predict republicans -- you made a good point they did predict the democratic candidate. but in terms of the republican party they have not been good predictors. >> they do predict who won't be. if you can't get out of iowa you won't be representative of the rest of the country. but we do play an important role. it's not one other other. we can ask social media which

all of us do. all three of us were tweeting before this segment that we were going to be having this conversation. that informed us. but this covering is imperative because it remind people of the social importance of it. we hopefully give them more information for their tool chest in deciding there is something different we add. it doesn't might's always right. it can also inform you what's wrong with the media and where their biases are. social media and fox news where you can speak your mind, where you are looking at the truth of the matter when it cops to the issues. john: on the republican side where you say iowa has not been a god predictor. donald trump and ted cruz are pretty much neck and neck. cruz has a huge ground gape there, trump not so much.

if trump pulls it out does he throw the rule book out the window? >> he has already thrown the rule book out. if marco rubio comes in third that will be the big story coming out of iowa. jon: big story for you? >> it's troubling. 45% say they could still change. but i think -- i'm still calling it for cruz because of the ground game. we don't see a surge in registrations for voters like we did with barack obama. it's the same rate. so it's not like people suddenly moved in here. i'm very excited. >> another big story will be bernie. >> i don't think they necessarily will. jon: i think it will be a fascinating night even though

you dislike the iowa caucus process. jon: two college student are arrested. how they are connected to the disappearance allegedly and death of a 13-year-old girl. the zika virus spreads at an overwhelming rate. gear up for great®.

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enjoys her first trip to the kingdom. expedia, technology connecting you to what matters. jon: a fox news alert. take a look at senator marco rubio make a campaign stop in ankeny, iowa. all candidates are working hard to get the last voters into caucus. they have 8 hours to get them into place. 7:00 p.m. you have got to be there to get your vote registered. jenna: the world health organization is holding an knowledge meeting discussing the

rapid spread of the zika virus linked to birth defects in babies. one of the things w.h.o. is trying to do is declare this a global emergency. dr. durbin, how important as we kick things off today, for the world health organization to declare this an emergency -- they haven't don't yet. do you think they should? and what will be the impact of that 1234? >> i think they will declare an emergency of international importance because of the raped and ex closive spread of zika. once that recommendation is made, a coordinated international effort to combat not only the disease but the mosquito as well. jenna: we'll watch for that announcement today.

dr. durbin, what are the concerns as we take a look at the story is the discussion of microcephaly in infants. women who were pregnant who have apparently been bitten by a mosquito who carries this virus. it's gone to if you get by a mosquito with this your baby will have this. what is the truth about this birth defect and the mosquito and the virus? >> when viruses infect mothers early in pregnancy, generally the first trimester, that can result in serious birth defects, including microcephaly. a lot of the studies are being focused to determine if that link is real it many important to note that determination is very important. we want to make sure we make all

of the efforts we can to prevent microself live. prevent -- prevents microcephaly. it will allow public health experts to. >> is this virus it's possible to have a vaccine for? >> it's related to the yellow fever virus. we have had a vaccine for the yellow fever virus for 70 years. and we have had a vaccine license for dengai. general from you take the vaccines for either of those will that help you with zika? or if you are living in an area of the world where the

mosquitoes are carrying this virus, are you only relying on mosquito repellants or nets? >> we are relying on mosquito repellants. it doesn't appear those vaccines would prevents zika. in brazil a lot of the population is vaccinated genss against yellow fever. jenna: how far away are weiss from a zika vaccine. sum letter be here before we know it. what does the timeline look like? >> there is a timeline for testing vaccines and a timeline for licencing of vaccines. we'll have testing in 3 to 6 months. with international and efforts to accelerate the process we may have testing done in highly

at-risk populations that could be implemented 2 to 3 years. but it depends on the safety and the efficacy or the effectiveness of those experimental vaccines once they are in trial. jenna: the story keeps on gathering steam. dr. durbin. great to have you on the program, thank you. jon: donald trump is gearing up for his first big political test in iowa tonight. e*trade is all about seizing opportunity. and i'd like to... cut. so i'm gonna take this opportunity to direct. thank you, we'll call you. evening, film noir, smoke, atmosphere...

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jon: let's check out on once ahead on outnumbers. harris: things are ramping up in iowa where voters are getting set to pick their presidential nominees. what will the caucuses mean for the gop frontrunners.

sandra: a former inspector general said she and the state department are lying about them. there was personal info on government workers and military members. what will they do about that? jenna: donald trump joins big crowds in iowa. will it translate into votes? the republican front runner faces his big test tonight. reporter: what the trump folks are say can is a large overall turnout is a good indication they managed to get hundreds of thousands to show up at the caucuses this evening. this event is supposed to start in five minutes. there are hundreds of empty seats. usually donald trump brings out the packed house and fills places like this.

trump is urging these event-goers regardless of the conditions night to come out and show up. >> if your doctor says u not leave your bed, you won't make it. it doesn't matter. get and caucus. reporter: we have been speak with trump campaign-goers. they have been telling us form of them they have have not caucused before, that donald trump has brought them into the political process and they will show tonight. >> i van outside, i was so excited. >> he's different. he's open about everything. it's amazing. >> i believe this is a dedicated group. so i think everything that's here hopefully will show up tomorrow. reporter: this is trump's first events of the day in waterloo, iowa. he will be joined by the former governor alaska and vice presidential candidate sarah palin in cedar rapids.

then it many watching returns for him. a new experience for him with his name on the ballot. >> new information in the murder of a 13-year-old girl. two virginia tech students under arrest. david eisenhauer was arrested in his dorm. police say he abducted and murdered nicole lovell. natalie keepers was arrested for allegedly helping in the disposal of the little girl's body. they found her body in north carolina this weekend. jenna: the justice department will investigate the san francisco police department. winter storm warnings froaftd rockies to the central plains. we'll be tracking the storm for you up next.

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jenna: "outnumbered" starts right now. ♪ ♪ andrea: well, today is the day. just eight hours from now iowans will head to their schools, community centers and other caucus stations to choose their presidential nominees. kicking into high gear what has been an exciting and unpredictable election season. this is "outnumbered," i'm andrea tantaros. here with us today harris faulkner, sandra smith, fox news contributor or megan mccain and today's #oneluckyguy on loan from fbn, the one, the only l.d., otherwise known as lou dobbs, and he's got a really, really dope car, and that's all i have to say. harris: really? >> amen to all of that. [laughter] andrea: you looked really good cruising you around in your car. i spotted you the other day. sandra: what car? [laughter]