hillary's firewalls looking at the numbers is so strong. >> the african-american vote -- >> not only african-american. one thing about iowa and new hampshire, they're the not represented racially in terms of being more rural, smaller than the rest of the country. you'll get a different result going forward. what was so telling in '08 about iowa is that they would vote for barack obama. that was like stunning. >> can we at least agree that four or five months back hillary was destroying bernie sanders in iowa and now it's too close to call? >> that energy, that revolution. he's talking about political revolution. that has really caught afire. but the issue is talking about what does it mean down the road. and this electorate on the democratic side is -- let me finish. this iowa/democratic vote that you're going to experience in new hampshire is far more liberal than the democratic vote

in the rest of the country particularly the south. >> i just think firewall starts to come down it she doesn't win one of the first two. >> juan have very bullish about hillary and also a revelation in terms of her legal problems and potential indictment looming. another choice voters have to make. this wild race has left many iowa voters changing their minds up until the last minute. you'll hear from some of them next when our countdown to the caucuses continues.

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welcome back to "the five." polls say one thing, but the people of iowa could surprise us tonight. many voters here still remain undecided. others keep changing their minds on the candidates. watch this frank luntz focus group. >> what would cause you to flip? >> i've gone from trump and we watched the debate where he didn't show up and i was a huge cruz supporter. after megyn kel

showed him the video, i didn't see him as honest. so now i'm with marco rubio. >> there is a word for that. >> it's not flip-flopping. >> and how likely are you to stay with marco rubio? >> 100%. i was actually able to see him in person last weekend and ask him a direct question about my family and their security and the way he answered it where my 10-year-old with me, it solidified why i would choose him. >> so could someone like senator rubio pull off one of the night's biggest surprises even if he doesn't win? charles krauthammer thinks maybe. >> the person to watch is rubio. he's now been at 15% in that area for a while. essentially stalled almost

waitin waiting. i don't think he will win, but if he reaches 20%, he will be the one who is seen as exceeded xeg expectations. and given the tafact that there are really only three in the race right now this, could make him going into new hampshire formidable. >> so what do you say about that? >> definitely like the ground swell of support that we've been hearing about, he's the one that the expectation level was lower, so he could outperform and really be kind of in a sweet spot coming out of iowa. the rubio campaign strategy was the 3-2-1. perhaps to get in the top three in iowa, solidify his positioning and then he might be pe ba peaking just at the right time. trump, cruz, rubio are in the -- >> rubio second place finish would be a real win for him, right? >> i think that he would have to feel really good about that.

their team would be in great position. i think that also this shows that we were talking about the debate and how important it was and how about 45% of people said that they this 2012 they did not make up their decision on who they would support until after that last debate. so that's why it's so important and i think donald trump maybe he doesn't regret not coming to the debate, but i do think it probably has hurt him in iowa. >> greg, so most of the polls had it trump, cruz, rubio the last couple of weeks. any surprises going to break in? >> i think if rubio gets up there, he should thank trump. because cruz had nobody to draft behind. i mean basically lance armstrong took a breather and he couldn't hide behind trump anymore. and then everybody ate him alive because they saw he was an imitator. i think the reason why those focus groups are so unfocused, if you will, there are many

competent different models up there. there is something for everybody. something that you like and dislike. like mitch world but with one lady and 12 dumpy guys. it's a wealth -- you call it a he wi wealth of riches? >> embarrassment of riches? >> i'm an he wi embarrassment. and why are caucuses in really depressing buildings? >> can i just point out the process is really fascinating. especially the difference between the gop and democrats. democrats will go, they will talk, each candidate gets someone to speak on their behalf. and then they try to sway each other's people come over to high side. republicans say here is your four micnutes. now we vote. which one is better. >> if you believe in community, the whole concept of caucus really is that you come together in a small community, maybe even

a living room, you could go to a living room, you know. >> caucus for caucasian? doesn't that make it racist? >> no, this is your problem white chocolate. you always come back to race. >> here we go with the white chocolate. >> it's so fascinating to watch if you go into one of these places because this is -- this has some relevance to tonight. on the democratic side, if you don't get up to about 15%, well, then you can leave, but you could also join one camps. and that means martin o'malley's troops are potentially a target for clinton or sanders. and watching tv ads here in iowa over the weekend, you can't get away from it. it's unbelievable. and guess what, the target from trump and from rubio is cruz. they're all calling him a liar and cheat and 245thief basicall. >> we have a lot more to show you. a lot of young democratic voters

are feeling the burn and backing bernie sanders for president. do they understand what socialism really is. an important refresher from greg when "the five" returns. you're driving through the woods when a majestic beast runs into view. then you run into a tree. but your totaled new car isn't totally replaced. with new car replacement, we'll replace the full value of your car plus depreciation. liberty mutual insurance. ...as a combination of see products.. and customers. every on-time arrival is backed by thousands

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then, a brutal act of teterror here at home.. it's time for a tested and proven leader who won't try to contain isis. jeb bush has a plan... to destroy them. and keep america safe.

jeb bush: the united states should not delay in leading a global coalition to take out isis with overwhelming force. announcer: tested and proven leadership matters. jeb bush. right to rise usa is responsible for the content of this message. last night a russian man asked me hugh on earth bernie sanders a socialist could be running for president. here's the answer. socialists place a blind fold on history masking its denial of progress. see cuba, argentina, bolivia, ecuador, and of course venezuela, a place literally full of crap since socialism made toilet paper scarce. socialism is a doctor who knows

the cure is freedom but suffocates the patient with a pillow anyway. sanders says it's a revolution, a modern code for, quote, something people don't want. so it must be forced on them. it's one step shy of radical islam, rejecting innovation for medieval failure. it's hard enough to craft policies for the unknown. so why are we empbracing the evl of known is this they refuse to name the villain of history because they're in bed with it, it exists on the backs of the rest of us. socialism can't create but only take. socialism can't make money. it thwarts ingenuity because it cannot generate incentive and

kills growth. sure sachbd esanders schbts a va kind man but a cruel doctrine that sticks to the planet like toilet paper from the world's worst restrooms. >> juan, you got me this beautiful shirt which i will never take off. sptd isn't it a fact that you can only love soecialism if you dont live under it? >> yes, but you know the one that bernie likes, scandinavian country. >> of course. it's not even socialism, my friend. >> well, i'm just saying, those kind of -- >> it's a highly taxed hammock. >> that's the big difference.

they're willing to tax the middle class for these programs that protect people who get ill or become economically disadvantaged. bernie sanders is focused on taxing the rich. and i think that is the big difference. and that could be a problem obviously. it's interesting when yournie r than any of the republicans, most come under 200 bucks. and those are from drunk people who watch the a revolution. >> yeah, because they're in student debt because they didn't think about the money they took out. a true socialist would share the money with other candidates. >> good point. >> you left out new york, california. so think about this. bernie sanders the soercialist against donald trump the capitalist. this plays perfectly into the gop hands. you have someone representing capitalism and we built this

country on capitalism. our founders took risks to come over here, start businesses and built a beautiful country, a global power and we fought the socialist and communist countries. this is great for any one of the gop. >> that's why on this panel we're constantly putting downhill hillary and building up bernie. greg is talking about the energy and i think about to ralph nader and the like and all these -- ron paul, ross perot, jesse jackson, i think they come and go, but they don't stay. >> i think bernie is definitely a movement candidate. dana, you know young people. some say you are a young person. how do we talk to these young people today to remind them of what socialism really >> well, we might have to make an app. >> yes. >> the guy that asked you the

question, we were at the villages and we took q&a at the end of our event. and he was an immigrant who had come to america during the cold war and his question to you was how could this possibly happy, how could people in america forget what it was like. and history is doomed to repeat itself. so it is incumbent upon all of white house stu us who studied it to pass on the information and you have to be specific and get social media involved. >> socialist media. that's what i call it. >> the problem is there is a fresh new crop coming in in american universities across this country with liberal professors indoctrinating those with eager minds and lots of student debt and they think it's very exciting to embrace this idea, they don't really understand the history behind it. and that's where you're seeing this big enthusiasm bunch up with young people in the universities that is kind of spilling out and he's been able to tap into take because their

memory is not -- >> nobody in venezuela would vote for bernie sanders after the hell they have been through. if you're a young person and don't know about socialism, read up on venezuela. it's hell hole. >> what do you tell people about social security? >> it's your money. it is your money. >> i don't think all of it is -- >> how is that -- i'm depends it, but it's my money. but i'd rather just say -- i'm for social security amnesty. you can have it, just stop taking it from me. >> bernie sanders, if all his policies were instituted, $19 trillion. $19 trillion. as much as since day one the country has founded. he would double it. >> that's why we're lucky you live here, you can help us at the time out of it. >> he would take 90% of your money and once these kids have to start paying their own bills, they would realize. >> he would take the shirt off

my back. just so people know, these are actually body tattoos. we have to move on. what goes down at a caucus? what is a caucus even? how many times am i going to say caucus? all the answers next. in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in the hudson valley, with world class biotech. and on long island, where great universities are creating next generation technologies. let us help grow your company's tomorrow, today at business.ny.gov and i quit smoking with i'm chantix. i had a lot of doubts going in.

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enthusiast. mmm, a perfect 177-degrees. and that's why this road warrior rents from national. i can bypass the counter and go straight to my car. and i don't have to talk to any humans, unless i want to. and i don't. and national lets me choose any car in the aisle. control. it's so, what's the word?... sexy. go national. go like a pro. welcome back to "the five" live from iowa. tonight's caucuses begin at 7:00 p.m. central time less than three hours from thousanow. for some, it will be their fist an fox news spoke with them

earlier. >> i think they're all a bufrnc of crooks and they lie and we finally have a business than who tell it is like it is and i will tell get something country. >> i feel that it is my duty as an american trsthan who tell it is like it is and i will tell get something country. >> i feel that it is my duty as an american trs to put forth himy opinion. >> i like trump that he started the political incorrectness. >> we'll find out how a caucus working. campaign karl, what are you wearing there? do you have a special outfit on? >> do you like the coat?arl, wh wearing there? do you have a special outfit on? >> do you like the coat?carl, w wearing there? do you have a special outfit on? >> do you like the coat? this coat has been on the campaign trail across the country every single four year cycle since 1984. brit hume wore it and then gave it to me. he did it for four cycles and i did it now for four cycles. a little beat up. buttons don't hold any more.

there is no thread on here. but it has more miles on the campaign trail than any other reporter living at this point i think. >> eric has a question for you. >> so we've been talking about the caucus process on the gop side. they figure out who won with the most votes. but it's not who wins the most caucuses, it's actually a popular vote, right? >> sure. different for republicans and democrats in terms of process. republicans get together. every campaign has a spokesperson. and those individuals will get to make speeches on the republican side. and then they have a secret ballot and that's pretty much it. but those speeches can take a few hours. and they're often laden with peer pressure. for instance, the cruz campaign and rubio campaign plan to send them will armed with talking points but essentially say to all the candidates that are not cruz, trump or rubio that you ought to just hang it up and come over to the cruz/or rubio

campaigns in order to stop trump. a big question whether trump's captains will have that same rhetoric positioning. on the democratic side, obviously they have this process where you go there and you get in line for the candidate you like before you actually even get the chance to votes. sometimes it's in a house or school, you'll gather where the group of supporters for your particular candidate and then you'll have the speaker make the speeches and then they will have a public ballot and any candidate that doesn't reach 15% is considered unviable. and bounce. that sometimes leaves a lot of caucusgoers looking for somebody else to support. and there is a lot of hor trading. if it's in a precinct where there are oy a few delegates up for grabs, you'll see campaigns horse trading just to try to split the dell delegates between the collectively favorite candidates. >> okay.

we're coining you caucus carl today. so tell us about the momentum on the ground as we've seen some shifts over the past week. >> everybody in the top campaigns which is to say rubio, cruz and trump is claiming momentum. we were at a couple of events came where the crowds were substantially smaller. it's a weekday. over the weekend, the crowds got huge because people could actually come. they there slsthere did show to. some did leave trump while he was speaking. perhaps that's a sign of minds changing. but you can't read take many tea leaves about into this. momentum would appear to be with cruz or rubio. rubio campaign thinks it has

gotten a lot of jazz. cruz has the best organization. and momentum in the polls and on the campaign tram il at events not as important as ground troops at the caucuses. >> all right. i bet you've been waiting all day for a greg gutfeld agree. in in order to participate, you have to be 18. what if she told that you she was 18? >> this is the thing about peer pressure. these are friends and family who know one another. and they do shame each other into pigging sides. they don't always check i.d. as thoroughly as they should. they don't always lock the doors exactly at 7:00. particularly if it's their next door neighbor trying to get in. and some, there could be 1500 in a caucus, but it could be as

small as half a dozen. imagine arguing politics with somebody, but at the end you have to vote. and make it official and then send it to the rest of the state. so don't underestimate on either side the ability to arm twist and extort political support from the people who might live right across the street from you about. >> so the moral is at anytime you could be tricked by someone lying to you and it's not your fault. >> this is politics. >> so help out the tv viewers watching fox and megyn tonight. so when can you expect results? >> probably well after 10:00. they are using microsoft to tab uhe lawsuit the inco tabulate the incoming votes. it's a first. but it could go late if there is

a rob with the hike crkro micro technology. the last time there were pballos that weren't counted on time and the results went to the state convention and turned everything upside down. this time it's a binding caucus. >> all right. a binding caucus. you heard it here first. final thoughts and predictions are next. when you write with your favorite tul® brand pen, do you sign invoices like they're autographs?

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and here they come down the stretch. some final thoughts before tonight's first presidential vote of 2016. our predictions and a look ahead to the upcoming contest. i start with our trifecta expert, miss dana perino. >> i think that we'll have some surprises tonight and i think that the polls will show to not bepredictor.

because that's been the case especially in kentucky. the other thing is this is just the first of many. as soon as the voting is under way tonight, the candidates are going to high tail it to new hampshire. and after new hampshire, they go to south carolina and then nevada. and then you don't get the big super tuesday results until i think march 15. so we have a long way to go, but it's good that tonight we get it started. >> you got to give me a prediction. >> i actually feel like we do a disservice to people. i have no idea. >> you know when you go to the window, you got to put your money down. >> i'm not a gambler. >> i picked up the fried chicken and went to pick brit hume's brain today. he said to me, you know, kimberly, there is no reason to not believe the polls right now. we'll see what happens. and then last night when i was watching special report, kind of the same thing. consistent message with where the polls are going, they have

been pretty, you know, straight on the line there. trump. and the only thing maybe cruz and rubio. but the one who has something to lose is cruz because there is high expectation on him. trump was getting all the rapid fire at him. he's put a tremendous a of resources and, yes, a smart intelligent ground game. they need to deliver for him so that he still remains vibrant. >> and now my vegas friend. >> trump will win it, but the long shot i would say marco rubio does take it. it's a long shot. no one expected him to come in in the top lee or four. i think he comes in second. again, this is just -- we're just speculating. i think cruz comes in third. and jeb had an event here. >> tremendous event. >> and it was packed. it was a big, big event here.

so maybe look at jeb bounce up into the top three or four. and on the other side, i think bernie walks away with this. >> walks? >> wow. >> before we go, people in iowa are amazing. passionate, you love politics. >> i only have a few seconds, but gregory, i go to vegas and play three card monty. so i have to hear your prediction. >> the only poly trust was john paul ii. so an interesting thing about the caucuses, the candidates don't have to file to be in this poll. so you could just write in me. >> that's a great idea. i don't think there is much question about the polls. if you look at the poll, it's clinton and trump. one more thing next.

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parking is hard to find. seems like everyone drives. and those who do should switch to geico because you could save hundreds on car insurance. ah, perfect. valet parking. evening, sir. hello! here's the keys. and, uh, go easy on my ride, mate. hm, wouldn't mind some of that beef wellington... to see how much you could save on car insurance, go to geico.com. ah! (car alarm sounds) it's ok! it's time for one more thing. >> these little guys are rescues, while we spend a lot of time talking about caucuses this week, my wife has been like, you have to see these people. these are patriots for pets. this is squat. dana's holding shorty, these

guys are available for rescue. they are rescue dogs. iowa get out there and meet your new best friend. by the way, try to figure out a way to get squat to come home with me. we're working this one. >> if i had a dollar for how many times i heard that. i want to introduce to you nate and ryan. 10 and 11, they are from iowa here. tell them who your favorite is on the show. >> all of them. >> you can say greg. >> greg. >> tell them what your favorite part of the show is? >> i hate these people. >> we're showing everybody how -- >> i'm training them well. >> dirks bentley traded in his guitar for a hockey stick. nhl all-star skills competition, and he scored a goal. i think we have some video. >> this is country star dirks bentley moving in with james

neal, he scores. >> there we go. he announced the american country music awart nominees today, he's going to host that event with lou bryant on april 3rd. i am looking forward to that. >> hockey and country music right up your ally? >> i'm telling you. >> last night dana and i flew to florida to be with the villages, where we put on an event with larry gatlin. we interviewed ourselves. there's a cutout of jasper there. there she is, dana running around with her dog. they're such dedicated -- that's me sleeping. never take pictures of people asleep on the plane, it's a violation. villages loves the five. they love everybody here. they are inside for this show. it reminds you how special this show is, when you see the reaction. they treat it like a family.

>> almost 1,000 people at the sharon. >> all right, i'll shut up now. >> juanita, what do you have for us? >> yesterday i got to have a little fun here in iowa with bill and martha, for martha's birthday. take a look at this. >> before we get out of here, iowa's throwing a party for my co anchor, we'd like to say. happy birthday to you. happy birthday to you. happy birthday dear martha mack cal um, happy birthday to you. >> that was beautiful. >> happy birthday martha, you deserve it, you're the best. >> that's awesome. >> very nice. yes, happy birthday miss martha. there's a lot of things in life that can bring comfort. beautiful animals like we have here are definitely a way to find comfort, then there's also

food you can put in your mouth. the top ten comfort foods chosen by americans. number one was pizza, topping the list. chocolate, ice cream, mac & cheese, potato chips, hamburgers, steak, popcorn -- i think i've had them all. >> you are holding president obama's comfort food. >> k.g., he already fell asleep. tune in tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. eastern and don't miss the outcome of the election tonight. this is a fox news alert, this is decision day. you are looking at live pictures from two of the 20,000 sites where the iowa caucuses will take place tonight. it doesn't look like much right now. a republican caucus site in clive, iowa just west of des moines.

on the right ames, iowa. we'll have more as people again to file in. coming to you from our headquarters in des moines. a beautiful spot, during the next hour, we'll tell you how the candidates made their final pitches today to iowa residents, who according to polls are very