moines, iowa. see you tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. eastern. thank you, iowa. and special edition of america's elections headquarters starts now. ♪ ♪ it's 8:00 p.m. in the east. 7:00 p.m. here in des moines, iowa. i'm bret baier. >> i'm megyn kelly. good evening, the process of choosing the next president has finally begun. >> early fox news entrance polls indicate a tight race on the republican side with new york businessman donald trump, texas senator ted cruz and florida senator marco rubio battling each other for the top spot. although trump appears to have a very slight edge. it is still very early and the numbers could, of course, shift. >> on the democratic side, there is a similarly tight battle between former secretary of state hillary rodham clinton and vermont senator bernie sanders, a democratic socialist. again, it is]vy very early. about the only projection we can safely make at this early hour is one that will

come as no surprise to anyone who has been paying even remote attention to preiowa polling and that is that fox news can now project that former maryland governor martin o'malley, brace yourself is, will finish third in the democratic contest. far behind frontrunners clinton and sanders. the news is coming in as coverage of the iowa caucuses starts right now. ♪ ♪ >> they have made their case now iowa gets its say. >> we are going to make america great.v;etq)uárp+e to gu have to caucus. >> commit to come out monday night to stand and caucus for us. if we stand together united we will win. [ applause ] >> you have to have somebody who is a proven fighter. >> inevitable candidate, ain't so inevitable today. >> tonight across the state

iowans are starting to caucus, casting the first vote of 2016. >> i will win this election. party. >> as president of the united states, no one will keep this country safer than i will. >> restoring america's leadership in the world, i think is essential. >> for some candidates, it could be their last stand. >> i think it's time as citizens we take our future back. >> america is looking for a new leader. >> we very a rally the base,. >> i know you want a fighter, i am a fighter. >> one of the things i have to do is stay on my feet, run full throttle. >> we are in a situation right now in our country that we have never been in right now. we need people who think out of the box. >> look, we are the little engine that can. >> but as this campaign has proven, anything can happen. >> i never thought in a million years i would be a politician. >> we have a movement now. i will tell. >> you our coverage of the iowa caucuses starts now. ♪

♪i >> live from des moines, this is america's election headquarters, the iowa caucuses. >> you are looking live at the historic state capitol in des moines, iowa, after months of campaigning and more than $70 million in ads. kay can you -- caucus night has arrived. doors have closed at 2,000 sites. voters are beginning to make final pitch for candidates across 99 different counties in the hawkeye state. let's check in now on what the voters are saying as they arrive to caucus. martha mccallum has our entrance polls. >> good evening. entrance polls as we have been telling you. we asked the questions as they go into the caucus. we are at 40 sites at each party across the state. this is how they intend to vote. so what are showing you now is very early. we may see big changes but here we go. let's start with the democrats. bringing in more participants, often a goal

of the new can especially. this year we are seeing a smaller percentage of first-time caucus goers at least on the desms side. in 2008 when barack obama took iowa 57% say that they had never caucused before. today we are seeing about 41% newcomers. the new buys so far appear to be going for sanders 59% versus 38% for hillary clinton. now, people who say that electability is the single most important thing for them. they are going unsurprisingly for hillary clinton 711% to 18% over sanders. democrats who want a nominee who is honest and trustworthy, they are backing sanders by a wide margin 77%(ç to 14%, given all of the news that we have had in recent weeks about hillary clinton not a huge surprise and her honest and trustworthy numbers have been trouble throughout the course of this campaign so far. now let's go to

evangelical christians, a key voting group, so far they are making up 62% of caucus goers, that's up a little bit. 56% were evangelical caucus goers back in 2012. they went h|ñ for the that nightnner rick santorum. another group everybody is watching closely firs]á oát caucus goers on the g.o.p. side. early numbers so show that 43% say this is the first time that they have attended. that is higher than 2012 when there were 38%. we will see who that bodes well for. the early suggestion is that could be good news for donald trump tonight. late deciders those who made up their mind today or over the weekend were 46% of the participants last time around. so far tonight only 344%. about one third made up their minds in the last few days but many of those folks may be coming in a little bit later in the evening because we are just looking at the beginning numbers especially on the g.o.p. side. so the evangelical vote obviously is a big part of this evening. and we know that those

voters are a group that ted cruz really wants. the first timers are they turning out for trump? all these questions we will be able to nail down with more specificity as we get a little bit further into this hour. bret and megyn back to you. >> martha, thanks. >> joining us now is brit hume and the distinguished open voice -- voice of our open. steve hayes. fox news contributors. and kirsten powers. >> not exit polls, people could change their mind as they go into the caucuses. >> thank god people are now voting after all this time and all this money and all this interest, ifíy i may say so. we finally are going to get some real results by the time this night is over we have some idea who can make it on and carry forward and who will not be able to. iowa it seems to me play traditional role in winnowing the field and thank god. >> kirsten, what are you looking at right nau? >> well, stem early so we

don't know how accurate numbers are going to be, 62% of evangelicals really jumped out at me. at the des moines register poll they had much lower number for evangelicals. they were expecting around had 47%. last time it was about 57%. what they have said in the poll is higher numbers mean better for cruz. they do tend to split the evangelicals but the bigger the evangelical vote is, they said, means a good night for cruz. >> steve? >> well, there are reports all across the state that turnout is astonishing. high virtually everyone. mike warren my colleague at the "weekly standard" is in ames says it's up 40%. something like that at the precincts that hewx is attending. you are hearing similar reports. assumption is that that bodes well for donald trump who was thought to bring in a number of new caucus goers. we will see as soon as we get9n-d more of the entrance polls whether that adds up being true. on the surface that might be a good sign for trump. >> and sanders too. there is a line that looks

like it's a city block long in des moines here for democrats looking to go caucus and that is too up way higher than 2012. >> entrance polls, brit, with the honest and trustworthy number on the democratic side that's a big >> it is a big deal in this race. surprising number of democrats in national polls have said that this is a very important issue for them. and, of course, that cuts hardvagainst hillary clinton whose reputation on that score has suffered and we have seen it throughout the polling all year long. it will be interesting to see if that plays out in the way that we expect. >> i love the way martha phrased it which is to those voters to whom hun honesty and trustworthy is important. they are siding with sanders. who says they don't care about that? they do. >> what's interesting is people will say no it won't be a top priority for a number of reasons. >> way down the list. >> 70%, was it 71% for sanders, i think, if i saw it correctly. this would be a blowout if that were really the top issue for everybody across the board. >> talk about the first-time

caucus goers are showing up. and we are presuming if it's on the republican side that's a good thing for trump and democratic side good thing for sanders. this is where the loyalty of the trump voters will really help him. right? because if they get in there and, you know, this is a last-ditch effort. they are dug. in these trump voters are not likely to be persuaded or am i wrong? because a lot of them do have a second choice. >> what i think about them is the people might have hoped that they would be, because they are first-time caucus goers. they might not be motivate to do come out tonight. i never thought that for a second. these trump voters i think are highly motivated. my sense is that you get a big turnout. that means that's big for him. no question about it. i don't think there is any chance that these people are going to stay away from the polls. dying to vote for this guy. >> quickly youxt have martin o'malley. no shocker coming in thirds. we announced that important in the democratic caucus those people who don't qualify, who don't get to that level could go to some place else. go to sanders. >> in the polls they were evenly splitting between

hillary and sanders. you have the dynamic that people start making their case. the feeling was that hillary clinton has the better organization, so he shield be able to poll those people. look, people are going to want to go with who they feel the winner is they are going to feel the enthusiasm. if there is a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of people that are supporting him, they could definitely poll them over. >> could you explain that to the viewers what we are talking about. the democratic side works differently than the republican side. dr. is a dust-up to what is going to happen to o'malley's voters. >> basically people come in and stand -- hillary peopl go stand over here and sanders people go stand over here and o'malley people stand over here. if he doesn't meet the threshold, those voters have to go somewhere else, 15%. >> they either have to go home or choose another team. >> so then what you will have is surrogates for each of the campaigns making their case why you should come over. >> like holding up candy? >> no prescribing. >> milk shakes? >> you never know. milk shakes? very persuasive these days. >> they will make their case. that's why typically

organization is very important. you have to have good surrogates to make the best case. >> that's democrats only, remember. it's like a firehouse primary. they come in, and they cast a ballot and they are free to leave. >> no one has a chance to persuade you? >> there is some discussion. but the point is if they cast a veto ballot, so nobody gets a boot -- there is no first round -- the democrats. >> there is no loser area. >> democrats like a little mini convention where if you don't make a certain level then up go to the next round and you are out. and so if you don't meet the threshold. discreet ballotև cast. it's different. not as likely that somebody is going to switch. >> surrogates make the speeches but they still vote. >> no secret ballot. you can change your mind from the time you walked in the door until the time you vote. >> on the democratic side they try to humiliate you. they make you stand in a circle where no one is. and they sort of shame you out of your choice. >> and then you say you go over to some other candidate and they say this is the cool kid's table come with

us. >> all the cool kids are over here. >> middle school dance. >> oh, that's sad. >> it went well for you. >> it did. i'm happy it worked out. >> meantime our reporters are spread out across the state tracking the campaigns. team fox coverage right now. carl cameron is following the cruz campaign. john roberts is at the trump headquarters. mike emanuel is with the rubio campaign. he had henry with the clinton campaign. james rosen is at sanders' headquarters. but we begin with chief political correspondent carl cameron. carl? >> hi, megyn. well, ted cruz is one the guys who came into tonight's caucuses as part of theme two-man race against donald trump. the cruz campaign has even been acknowledged by all of their rivals as the most organized as you say talking about its importance. they have an army of people from out of state who are here. they have been working for the better part of last year getting precinct captains all across the 99 counties and 1200kn precincts all being staffed up. very aggressively working the phones for weeks, direct

mail and very, very in-depth data system that they say has sort of moved the science forward so they could find all the persuadable republican voters out there. and even poach them from some of the other candidates. they believe that they're going to get the biggest lions share of evangelical voters and perhaps break records on that and they have been boasting about winning for the last few days. certainly the early entrance polls about evangelicals helps them cruz is expect to do come here very early in the east coast. hopely results will come in this way. when you talk about republican caucuses there definite solid peer pressure there. they have been given specific talking points to all of their friends and neighbors there if you are with certain candidates get away from them and come to us in order to stop trump. megyn? >> carl, thank you. >> well, just hours before the caucuses began, donald trump was bragging about his support from evangelicals, telling a crowd at one rally, quote: they really

do get me. john roberts is following trump's campaign. he is live in west des moines. john? >> bret, good evening to you. certainly having the endorsement of jerry falwell jr. doesn't help when you are trying to pull in evangelicals. donald trump after all of the huge massive rallies. thousands of people coming tout see him, at the end here he is doing a little retail politics. presently at a caucus knight west des moines. don't forget you can have a volunteer stand up for you, your precinct leader and give the pitch for why you think your candidate is the one who people should vote for. well, donald trump is actually making that pitch right now at one caucus. he is planning on heading to another one shortly after that he also has his and donald jr. and his son eric out there this evening. talking about whether people are commit to do vote, brit, we talked to people earlier today in cedar rapids. young people never caucused before saying they are dedicate to do come out tonight for donald trump because he is the only politician they have seen who has ever energized them.

we will see how that is reflected tonight at these caucuses. bret? >> i don't know, thank -- john, thank you. >> mike emanuel is standing by at the marco rubio headquarters tonight. mike? >> hi, megyn. marco rubio is at a caucus site in clive. one of three that he will visit tonight in the final hours of this iowa caucus. his campaign's focus has been on driving turnout. aids say that he is expected to finish third in iowa. they say they're comfortable with that trying to set expectations there. but since last thursday night's fox news debate, momentn the hawkeye state has been described as being with rubio. when he speaks to supporters here tonight, senior be on why he is running and the importance of this 2016 election. bottom line, marco rubio's campaign says they feel good about where he is they say it's important because it's an actual contest. they are saying that this contest on the republican side they expect to be a

megyn? >> mike, thank you. >> now turning over to the democratic race. he had henry is following the clinton campaign. he had? >> bret, she was obviously once the inevitable nominee. hillary clinton now in a dead heat here on the ground in iowa. they are looking at a number of things very closely inside the clinton[y camp. they are telling me they will watch what will happen as you mentioned with martin o'malley supporters. if he doesn't reach that 15% threshold for viability. they will be working very hard. they have plans to do that martin o'malley very close friends with former president bill clinton. they will try to work that watching nervously some of the pictures coming in from democratic caucus sites where this there is heavy turnout. bernie sanders big turnout helps them. that makes them nervous. i was in a field office earlier in are for clinton today around the des moines area. plastered all over the wall next to clinton campaign signs was a quote from a democrat saying there is no energy in the clinton campaign. who wrote that and said that? bernie sanders. they had on the wall as if it were a spores locker

room. bernie sanders1doesn't think we have energy, let's show him, bret. >> he had, thank you. >> earlier today bernie sanders told a crowd in des moines taps tied ballgame and warned them they would face a struggle if the voter turnout is low. james is live at the campaign in des moines. james? >> we have been hearing so much about turnout it's critical to bernie sanders. as you say he told his supporters at campaign headquarters in a strip mall in des moines today we will win if we have a high turnout. if not we will struggle tonight. two factors very interesting. today the quinnipiac university survey of likely democratic caucus goers put bernie sanders ahead of hillary clinton by 3 percentage points. it shows he has kept his huge lead with low income voters. he has kept his slim lead with middle income voters. he has cut in half hillary clinton's huge lead with affluent voters. of course affluent voters are more likely to show up and vote. the problem for bernie sanders tonight is

geography. 25% of his support come from precincts that don't yield 25% of the delegates toò the dnc, megyn? >> james, thank you. >> it's interesting to look at these entrance polls. democrats 15% going in are under 30. of those, 91% went for bernie sanders. 14% are 30% to 44%. 64% going for sanders. if those numbers hold, that's a good night on the younger vote for bernie sanders as we predicted. >> they are motivated. and the first time caucus goers are motivated for berne i don't know 00 democratic side and for trump on the republican side. yet, we haven't seen a surge, we were told as of yesterday in first time voter registration. however here in iowa you can do it same day. as the night goes on, we will learn a lot more and pretty soon we think. >> we now know had t. is a tight race for first on the republican side, trump, cruz, rubio, battling for that's a live look we have got coming up at two caucus=a locations, ames and clive, iowa. speeches are now over, we're

told. and now it's time for iowans to cast their vote there. >> coming up, the campaign cowboys are here. chris wallace, karl rove and joe trippi join us along with dana perino and juan williams in what mattered most in the final days that straight ahead as our special coverage of the iowa call cusses rolls on live from des moines. ♪ i have asthma... ...one of many pieces in my life. so when my asthma symptoms kept coming back on my long-term control medicine,

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welcome back, everyone. we are live here in des moines, iowa. we are getting some preliminary information here tonight. first on the g.o.p. side, as expected, based on the last polling we saw prior to top three positions are held at this moment by trump, cruz, and rubio. not any surprise but really too early for this to be particularly meaningful. we will know more soon, we believe. over on the democratic side, again, no huge surprises yet. hillary clinton, bernie predicting now that martin o'malley will come in third which is, again, not a surprise but it leaves his supporters with an interesting question tonight about whether they should stand firm at these caucuses and saying we are going home rather than cast our lot behind sanders or clinton or turn around and walk out the door. joining us now with more

"fox news sunday" anchor chris wallace as well as former senior advisor to president george w. bush and fox news contributor karl rove and former howard dean campaign manager and fox news contributor joe trippi. so, joe, i will do you the courtesy of not mentioning anything about howard dean for some time and i will let chris take it away. chris? >> great. >>qn thanks, megyn the campaign cowboys back in the saddle again. i can tell you they are not very happy because when campaign cowboys don't have any numbers to go over, they are like people on the biggest loser who's can't find a meal. >> we are grumpy. let's leave it at that. >> okay. in any case, one of the things, joe, we were talking about is if you are a campaign manager and you were for howard dean back in 2004, today, with today's technology, if you're clinton's campaign manager and precinct 101, what do you know? >> a ton. we had no -- we had nothing. the iphone wasn't even out until 2007. they have an app., all these

campaigns both in the bernie sanders campaign and the clinton campaign have apps where their precinct captain puts in right now it already knows whether the people they wanted to be there showed up and can at least estimate how many people in the room. they are already putting together how long a night this is going to be or how well they are doing. >> can they react in realtime? in other words, if they realize their number is low or that there are more of the otherfo6((p'didates, people out there, can they quickly get some more people into the caucus? >> that's going to be hard to do. both of those campaigns have tried to get everybody they can to get there they will have the o'malley people who work on this the kind of race they are in not likely they will be able to do much. >>=$ karl, this isn't a primary. you have all the early returns and have a sense getting your early voters out. what's it like on caucus night. >> a lot of work in the 72 hours leading up to it

making sure you touched everybody on your list has a supporter. doing everything to surround them to get them to the polls. if if you are smart is you have a chairman for every precincts. 1500 precincts on the republican side. ted cruz say they have in excess of 1,000. if you are really good you go further. in 2000 we had captains for every 10 people that we had as a supporter. and they had a list of who they were. each precinct captain had a list of the team captains. >> the republicans are a little bit different than the beginning of the republican caucus, every candidate gets a chance to have a representative speak. there are 12 republican candidates. virtually every one of these 1500 candidates there will be seven or eight speeches. many of the big ones there will be 12 speeches. so you have got time to find out do i have a couple of my people not here, if so get somebody on the phone and beg and plead them to come. >> i asked both of to you take a look and give us an early bellwether of counties that you will be looking at to give you a sense of how

it's going tofxd turn out. on the republican side where are you going to be looking l tonight, karl. >> i will be looking at webster county which has called the last two caucuses not only the right order but almost the right percentage for huckabee, romney and thompson in 2008 and santorum, romney and paul in 2012. just northeast of des moines, dodge county center. >> joe? >> marshall county have been right in the last democratic caucus, and the last one in 2008. last c']wmtted one had obama at 38%. edwards second at 30% and hi2iáv at 30%. called it perfect. one last thing that i want to get into. this is absolutely fascinating because of the mistakes back in 2012 where everybody thought romney won and, in fact, santorum won the republican side. microsoft came in and completely, you know, took us into 3.0 land in terms of the technology. you tell me sanders people are nervous about this? >> yeah. they have made some

accusation that microsoft might be trying to skew the results for hillary clinton, which i just found astonishing that they even -- >> let me briefly say that the precinct captain at the let's say for the democrats will put in to his iphone clinton got this many votes, sanders got this many votes. and o'malley got this many votes and sanders people are worried that they are going to somehow play with the numbers? >> something dangerous happening here. when everybody in the room knows what the result was in a caucus. it's not like, you know, a secret ballot and you can mess up what the numbers are. >> sanders people are even talking lawsuit, right? >> i think that's what the last couple things i have heard. there is definitely some brouhaha coming out of the sanders campaign about microsoft which i do not understand. >> millionaires and billionaires. >> having been accused of having stolen the 2004 election by doing something to the software in ohio i think it's better if i not speak on this particular issue tonight. >> you are going to recuse

yourself? campaign cowboys are waiting for numbers. would are hungry, guys. >> i bet. >> we can feel it too, thanks, chris. >> donald trump has been hammering ted cruz about where he was born. the voters of iowa say they are more worried about the economy and the threat of terror. we will bring you those entrance polls from the caucuses up next. >> plus, juan williams and dana perino will be here live to share their thoughts on w tonight's contest. don't go away. that's coming up as our live caucus coverage from the iowa state house continues right here on fox news, america's election headquarters. ♪ ♪ seven. i just wish one of those people could have been mrs. johnson. [dog bark] trust me, we're dealing with a higher intelligence here. ♪ the all-new audi q7 is here. ♪

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welcome back to live coverage in iowa. getting update from carl cameron on voter turnout. maybe antidotal. what he is saying is that g.o.p. officials are nowf reporting several caucus sites have remained open to accommodate very long lines. some have run out of registration forms and in some cases have actually run out of ballots which is significant since we had the head of the iowa g.o.p. on fox news last night saying they anticipated significant turnout and planned ahead by having extra forms available. having extra long lines and running out of registration forms and running out ballots. it tells you something. >> good news for donald trump and bernie sanders if predicting going in holds true. let's drill down. you heard a little bit about this from the campaign cowboys. drill down on some of the

crucial counties in the hawkeye state. when it comes to caucuses state of iowa breaks into distinct voting regions. we will be looking at how the caucus results in five regions are coming in give a glimpse what the night could look like. eastern cities have been the most democratic area in iowa in recent years. university of iowa is in iowa city. so strong, you want to look for bernie sanders' numbers here. maybe even rand pé;l on the g.o.p. side, too. this was barack obama's strongest region in 2008. mitt romney won all nine counties in this region in 2008 as well. >> most of the counties in the east central region are farm based with the exception of black hawk county home to the university of iowa waterloo. most of the region trends democratic except for the southern counties near the missouri border. washington county is home to the largest amish community west of the mississippi. des moines, where we are, and that's where the long lines are being seen by the way by carl cameron is obviously the commercial, financial, and governmental

center of iowa. filled with young professionals, this region is politically competitive. president obama carried this region with 54% of the vote in 2012. and the area contributed the most votes in both the 2008 and 2012 republican caucuses. >> still pretty spli[9ñ central iowa minus des moines and the surrounding area tilts republican but remains competitive in presidential elections. six-term republican governor terry branstad who by the way is the longest serving governor in american history. >> wow. >> grew up in winnebago, county. finally you look out west. this area is mostly rural and spread out. two major cities, sioux city and council bluffs. deeply conservative area. farming, agra business, very important here. this was though, hillary clinton's strongest region in 2008. democratic caucuses and rick santorum's strongest in the 2012 republican caucuses. >> well, martha mccallum has updated look now at some of our entrance polling. she has some of that now. martha? >> yeah, megyn, take a look.

more numbers now in on the g.o.p. side from fox news entrance polls evangelical christians go. back to that number for a moment. very key group in iowa make up 60% of those voting in the g.o.p. caucus. look at this. think are very split between cruz and trump at this point. 26% of thatwéij vote so far going to ted cruz. 24% going to donald trump. and can you see rubio and carson at 21%az and 1212% respectively. first timer ares, now, you are talking about the long lines that carl cameron is reporting, so far 45% of republicans5%b say that it is their first time caucusing and those voters are going with trump with 33%. rubio is getting 21%. cruz gets 18%. carson down at 10%. let's also talk about the late deciders because we talked so much about this in the last 48 hours that there were so many people, about a third of voters saying that they maybe could change their mind. we saw a surge of those voters delivering unexpected

victory to rick santorum last time around. 35% of caucus goers decided in the last few days, 35%. that is down from 46% in 2012. so, of those late decider voters though, we are seeing a trend that we could have expected given the recent quinnipiac polls. 28% of those are supporting rubio. 20% of the late deciders going to cruz. 14% it to trump, his voters seem to have decided some time ago and carson is getting onlysh 11% of those in last minute campaigning. >> what kind of persons experience are looking for. hawkeye republicans want an outsider. look at these numbers, 43% want someone with political experience. that's what's important to them. 51% would like to see an outsider in the white house. among the voters who say i would like an outsider in the white house, 49% of them are voting for donald trump for the next president. carson got 16%. cruz 16%. fiorina and rubio at 6%.

all of them have made the argument throughout the course of this campaign so far that they are, indeed, outsiders as well. sanders is killing it with the young folks out there, everybody. 91% of those under 30. 91% to 8% of the young vote. hillary clinton lost that vote last time around in a big way to barack obama. faris getting a beating tonight as well. tonight there are twice as many seniors as young people at the caucuses.mo they, as they did last time around, are with hillary clinton. 69% of those older voters are sticking with hillary clinton. bernie sanders, despite the fact that he is 74 years old, only has 23% of that group. so lots of new numbers coming in. minute by minute here. that's a look at the latest ones that we have got. back to you guys. >> that are that thank you. it's got to be really irritating for hillary clinton after all that dancing on ellen. not the young people? >> 9 1%? >> come on.

>> right now we have dr. ben carson. is he speaking to a group down in clive, iowa. let's listen in a little bit to this. >> in every aspect of you areót -- of our lives. [ applause ] >> the government has insinuated itself with all of these regulations, 8 is 1,000 pages of new regulations last year. and look at what that cost us. you know, 2 trillion, almost $2 trillion, $24,000 perççwn family of four. that happens to be also the poverty level for a family of four. so, if you want to fight poverty, why not get rid of some of all of these"fnu regulations. you know, that, i think, makes a whole lot more sense than anything else. and then i have a lot more to say but i'm going to wrap it up here by simply saying we americans must be proud of who we are. we cannot give away our values and principles for the sake of political correctness.

[ applause ] >> there are those. [ applause ] there are those who go around proclaiming separation of church and state. you can't put anything up that has anything to do with god. certainly nothing to do with jesus christ. and, you know, i have a seizure if i see a cross and all this kind of crap, you know. [ laughter ] >> the fact of the matter is, do they realize that our founding document, the declaration of independence says we have certain inalienable rights given to us by our creator, aka god. the pledge of allegiance says we are one nation under god. most courtrooms on the wall it3p says every coin in our pocket and bill in our wallet in god we trust. if it's in our court and on our money we are not supposed to talk about it. what in the world is that? if medicine we call it schizophrenia. [ laughter ] >> doesn't that explain a

lot of what is going on in our nation? and we need to make it perfectly clear that it's okay to live by godly principles. loving your fellow man. caring about your neighbor. developing your god given talents. having values and principles that govern your life. if we do that not only will reremain a pinnacle nation, but we will truly have one nation under god, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. thank you very much. [ applause ]ój >> and there you have it. dr. ben carson wrapping up an event in clive, iowa. all the candidates making the rounds today. most still in iowa trying to wrap up every last vote they can get. i want to direct you now to the bottom of your screen where we have added some words and some numbers. [ laughter ] >> so far not that exciting because it's like 1% of precincts reporting here in the g.o.p. race.rc-<

6% in the democratic race. as the night goes on, those numbers will become more meaningful. >> hard numbers start going in and scrolling from each of the five regions we just talked about across iowa. >> well, iowa has gone high tech tonight. the caucus results being tabulated with the help of a brand new app. >> bill hemmer is live at the site where all the results are coming in realtime. who will get out after tonight? what does it mean for new hampshire? our live coverage from america's election headquarters continues from the state capitol in just moments. ♪ ♪ we're the hottest young company around but if we want to keep the soda pop flowing we need fresh ideas! >>got it. we slow, we die. >>what about cashing out? no! i'm trying to build something here. >>how about using fedex ground for shipping? >>i don't need some kid telling me how to run a business! i've been doing this for 4 long months.

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let's get a quick check of the race and take a look at the boards. we can tell you at this hour it is too early to make any calls and don't pay attention to all of the percentages there because as we said they are coming in. the raw totals. but based on our entrance polls as well as the raw vote coming in, it is very close. donald trump has a very slight lead, ted cruz and marco rubio, but all three of them fighting for the victory here in iowa at this hour. on the democratic side. also very close. and again a caution about these numbers on the screen because these are raw totals as these various precincts are reporting the results from those caucuses. but hillary clinton and bernie sanders are0f very

close also at the top. we have already announced that martin o'malley will finish third in iowa. >> well, let's bring in now fox news contributor juan williams and former white house secretary dana perino. both are co-host of the five. >> thanks for having us. >> your thoughts so far. >> i think it's interesting and encouraging about the turnout. regardless of who it is good for. i think it's good for democracy in america and really mirrors what we have seen both in the rating for our network but also on social media and that type of activity. people are really engaged from millennials to generation x, baby boomers and then the silent generation. they all look at the world very differently. they get information differently. but the microtargetting of these campaigns has been have good. and social media component i think has driven the kind of turnout that both sides are seeing tonight. >> juan, on the democratic side the entrance polls are showing us that the democratic party here is more liberal than it was in 2008. >> absolutely. >> there are fewer first time caucus goers. so, on balance, how does that play? >> well, key thing to remember is that among

democrats, the democrat who wins iowa has won the nomination open contest the last threeoh times. unlike republicans, they haven't picked a winner here since 2000 in george w. bush. so when it comes to the idea of who turns out. this has been one of the keys in polls that i have been looking at, brit. what you see is that bernie sanders actually leads in some of the polling that's predicated on first-time people turning out. but when you ask, internally, have you voted in a caucus before, hillary clinton then is nearly at a 20-point advantage. and i was out this week watching some the hillary events. and what was telling to me was the number of clearly union democratic party activists. the people who are the heart and soul of voter rich area like des moines, who aren& working aggressively to push clinton over the bar. >> date of birthna, according -- dana, according to the latest polling that martha put up, first time

voters so far up to 44%. last time 38%. having first time jorts coming out at least so far. some people are showing up and getting them on the roster as well. 33% for trump, 221% for rubio. 18% for cruz. she said the late deciders too, those who decided in the last three days just 35% say they decided in the last few days they are going 28% for rubio, 20% for cruz, 14% for trump. so, the numbers in those two polls are pretty good for marco rubio. >> they are. and i think there is a direct result from the debate last thursday. we knew that from 2012 that about 45% of people decided after the last debate in 2012. i think that looks like it could be true this time as well. >> let's do you know in to clive, iowa as donald trump makes his case to that caucus site. >> every single cylinder. we're going to repeal and absolutely repeal and replace obamacare. it's a disaster. [ applause ] >> it's a disaster. [ applause ]

>>+ we're going to strengthen our borders. we're going to build a wall. we are going to build a wall. and people are going to come into our country but they are going to come into our country legally. they're going to come in through a process legally. [ applause ] some of the great businessmen of the world have endorsed me, mr. karl icon and others. we are going to use our most talented people to renegotiate horrendous trade deals with china. we're losing $500 billion a year in 5 trade. it's ridiculous. we're losing with japan. we are losing with mexico, both at the border and with trade. we are losing with vietnam. we are losing with everybody. we're going to have the finest negotiators in our greatest people negotiating our deals. we are north going to be losing anymore. so important because we can't afford to do it. we can't afford to play the

game. we're going to have countries that we're defending for nothing. we're going to have those countries help us out. we can't be defending the world anymore. you look at some of the countries. south korea we defend. germany we defend. japan, we defend. saudi arainia, we defend. we defend everybody. we get nothing. so, we're going to work with partners. we're going to have great relationships. but we are going to be the smart people now. not the people that made that ridiculous iran deal where we gave them $150 billion and we couldn't even get our hostages and our prisoners back. [ applause ] and what do they do? two days later they take our sailors, 10 wonderful, people. they takení them at gunpoint, put them a horrible

position with their hands up in the air, on their knees. and you heard the people the way they were talking to these young people. and, frankly, if the money wasn't coming in two days later, they would still have those sailors, believe me, 100 percent. they don't respect us. one of the worst deals i have ever seen. sergeant bergdahl, as an example, a trartd, we get bergdahl, they get 5 people that they have coveted, that they wanted for a$t?ñ period of seven years, eight years, nine years. so we get bergdahl and they get the five people that they most wanted. those days are over. so,i just want to thank. [ applause ] >> thank you. [ applause ] i want to thank the people of iowa. it's been amazing journey. it started on june 16th. i will tell you, we are going to start winning again. we're going to win with trade. we're going to win wieo our military. we're going to make it so strong, so powerful that

nobody is going to mess with us. we are going to win with healthcare. we're going to win with everything. so, again, thank you very much. you're amazing people. it's an incredible process, and i appreciate it very much. thank you. [ applause ] thank you. thank you. >> donald trump in clive, iowa. it's interesting, we just saw ben carson making his case at that same caucus site. that's what happens here. sometimes it's a surrogate who stands up. sometimes it's the candidate who stands up and makes the case. in fact, some reporting out of cedar rapids that evng can a trump and ted cruz are at the same caucus site at the same time. standing up. one a candidate and another daughter representing the candidate. >> has to be awkward. love her, however. >> we want to take you inside now the microsoft caucus center because that's where all the votes are being reported. using some new and we're told fairly amazing software and our own bill hemmer is hey,.

>> so far, amazing, megyn. good evening to you. bret, my brain is exploding with technology right now, numbers, i absolutely love it. let me tell you right now what microsoft is doing. they took over the process over the summer. they set up the own software, own app for republican and democratic parties. they did it for free. all the precinct captains, 1,681 republican, 1,681 democrat all over the state of iowa. we'll have a smartphone, red is republican. this is what you'll get. set to begin reporting. click again. are you ready to report? yes. put in your cell phone number. authorize. please enter the code for assigned precinct. authorization, sorry. because not a precinct captain there. so that is where the process stops for the public. the precinct captains are putting in that information now. the other thing they're doing right now, megyn, it's kind of cool. we want data, we want to find out what's happening as best as we can. scott county, far eastern side of the state of iowa,

mississippi river town, davenport, iowa. they have about 35% reporting. cruz 29.9%. trump at 29.0%. rubio down here at 18.2%. 35% is a pretty good percentage so far, but raw numbers not great. cruz at 500, trump 488, rubio at 306 there. that's kind of what's happening right now, what we're watching on the republican side. keep a very close eye on des moines, polk county by far and away the most populous county in the state at 430,000 population. on the democratic side, i think there are two counties to key in on. one is johnson county. eastern part of the state. a lot of young voters there. university of iowa's located in iowa city. if sanders is going to do well tonight, he's got to drive up the numbers in johnson county. right now, not a enough information coming in to say whether or not that is happening for sanders or whether or not hillary clinton is stopping the charge there. the other county for the democrats just north of des

moines, in story county, county -- the city of ames, iowa, that's where you find iowa state, again, a lot of young voters there. you know, people like rand paul would expect to do well there. and bernie sanders, again, wants to do well in that county to drive up those numbers. right now, just about 10%, 11% reporting from story county. and it's an even 50/50 between clint and sanders. >> all right. >> back to you guys now. >> we'll be right back. >> we'll be right back. don't go away. don't stare at me. see me. see me. see me to know that psoriasis is just something that i have. i'm not contagious. see me to know that i won't stop. until i find what works. discover cosentyx, a different kind of medicine for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. proven to help the majority of people find clear or almost clear skin. 8 out of 10 people saw 75% skin clearance at 3 months. while the majority saw 90% clearance. do not use if you are allergic to cosentyx. before starting, you should be tested for tuberculosis.

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welcome back, everybody. it is 9:00 p.m. here on the east coast. look at that pretty dome in the iowa state capitol. we are live in des moines, historic city capital. we welcome you back to america's election headquarters. i'm megyn kelly. >> i'm bret baier. i like that shot from the top. >> pretty. >> we look good. >> still too early to call the winners of iowa's presidential caucus with candidates in both parties locked in competitive fights for first place. on the democratic side, secretary of state hillary rodham clinton and vermont senator bernie sanders neck in neck. early caucus results have begun to supplement our fox news

entrance poll. we're getting real information here. you can see how the numbers shake out so far. 53% clinton, 47% sanders. >> on the republican side, it is a three-way fight among new york businessman donald trump, florida senator marco rubio, and texas senator ted cruz. now, these characterizations vary somewhat from the numbers at the bottom of your screen. we talked about that. raw early votes not supplemented by the entrance polls. it's not exactly necessarily predictive. 30%, 29%, 18%. as you have the early votes coming in now. >> joining us now with more from washington, syndicated columnist charles krauthammer. charles, your thoughts so far. >> the one thing, the first thing that strikes me is that carson appears to be holding his own at about 10% if you look at the first deciders. the late deciders, you look at evangelic evangelicals. you've got about 10% of carson. remember that the surge that cruz had about a month, a month

and a half ago, began when the carson support began to dissolve. but if he stays at 10% or 12%, i think that takes away the potential for a real heavy surge for cruz tonight. second thing that strikes me is the late deciders. you got rubio having about twice as many late deciders as trump. the interesting part about it, however, is that there are only about three quarters as many late deciders this time on the republican side as of four years ago. and i must say, the last item that strikes me is the evangelical vote. it's about 60% according to our entrance polls which is a lot higher than it was four years ago. that was assumed to be a heavy plus for cruz, but if you look at the split of the evangelicals, cruz is only two

points ahead of trump. if you put it all together, i think what it suggests at least now is a trump victory with cruz and rubio behind neck in neck for second place. >> you know, you talk, charles, about that evangelical vote. 62% according to the entrance polls. 56% in 2012 when rick santorum pulled out the victory here. if dr. carson is holding at 10%, 11%, that does not bode well for ted cruz. >> and that's exactly why i think he's only two points ahead of trump among evangelicals. cruz was the one to enhart the carson vote. had it crashed or disappeared, i think he would have had a bulge. that bulge is not there. i think later down the road, carson becomes a less viable candidate, but as of tonight in iowa, he could actually come in fourth. >> and yet right now, what we're

seeing, charles, according to the iowa gop caucuses results, is that ted cruz is in the lead with trump right on his heels which would seem to counter what we had seen in the latest "des moines register" and the latest quinnipiac poll right before we came. voting is still ongoing, but so far it's not a runaway. >> no, not at all, but remember, what you're looking at and what you're talking about here is a relatively small sample of the actual, the vote. if you project from the entrance polls which i assume should be fairly accurate, i don't see why anybody would or should lie on such an entrance poll, and you look at how did they break down, cruz seems to have less of a springboard than one would have thought a few weeks ago and rubio appears to be cashing in on the momentum that we heard anecdotely over the last week or so. >> charles, what does this say,

if anything, this early about donald trump's choice not to show up at the debate? anything? >> well, i'm not sure that you can draw a firm conclusion, but the fact that he's getting half the late deciders, i mean, half as many of the late deciders as rubio, would indicate that he's rising and perhaps part of it is a result that rubio did well in the debate and trump was a no show. >> we're getting reports, we talked earlier, charles, about overflow crowds at gop sites, lines wrapping around, needing new registration forms, needing actual ballots. we're hearing the same at the democratic precincts. from our producer out of precinct 56, they predicted a crowd of 160 this year. 469 showed up. they had to switch rooms. they had to add an overflow room. lines wrapped around the block. that's compared to 2008 when this town was completely energized for barack obama.

402 people caucused here. already 469 showing up. what does that tell you about what's happening over on the dem side, if anything? >> i think what it tells us on both sides is the size of the crowd actually reflected enthusiasm which actually translates into showing up on caucus night. and that was a question everybody had. it all depends are you just showing up for the show, especially on the trump side, or for the sanders show, the energy, the enthusiasm, the optimism and the idealism, if you like, of the students, is it just theoretical or are they going to show up on a cold night? it looks as if it actually is translateable into real appearances at the caucus. >> charles, great to see you. >> my pleasure. >> let's check in with some of the caucus sites. shannon bream is live in clive at a republican site. peter is live in ames at a democratic site. let's start with shannon. shannon?

>> reporter: well, bret and megyn, this has been one of the places tonight that has been more than an overflow crowd. they were setting up all day. we were with them as they were organizing for about 800. they had the chairs out. there were a couple hundred people left standing. so they're still taking out chairs as people are speaking at the stage and it's been one of the most popular sites tonight for the candidates who know when every vote counts if you show up somewhere where you have 1,000 or more voters, it's a good bet you may sway some votes because many of the people we talked to coming into here literally tonight told us they still had not decided and were waiting to hear from the stage behind me. tonight we saw marco rubio, we saw rick santorum, we saw ben carson and donald trump and his wife as well. it's been a popular site for candidates making their last-minute pitches here. i got to tell you, the biggest reaction we saw tonight was for ben carson. it's clear people here, even though the polls don't show he's their favorite, as far as we know, they have a great deal of respect for him. he got a standing ovation, taking the stage and leaving the stage. many, many people wanted to shake his hand, talk to him,

tell him how much they respected him. it may not be translating into votes but the most warmth and reaction for him tonight. the speeches have not started tonight. we'll get you updated as we get them. >> shannon, thank you. >> let's go to peter live at a democratic caucus site in ames, iowa. peter? >> reporter: megyn, there was a line out the door into the cold to get into this caucus site. the turnout is a lot bigger than organizers were expected. there are 527 people and we're told iowa state students, many of whom have never been to a caucus before, showed up and registered as democrats on the spot tonight. there is student housing across the street. so they could caucus. you look, this is the sanders side. it is overwhelmingly where the sanders crowd is here. in ames, a lot of the students we talked to said they are motivated by sanders' message of cleaning up wall street and they say they are stubborn, not likely to two over or be convinced to caucus for hillary

clinton. whereas some of the undergrads that we spoke to on the clinton side say they are here to listen, they could be convinced. now, as for o'malley supporters, he did not have a very good turnout here. it was pretty anemic. most the seats set aside for him were filled with sanders backers. right now folks from the clinton side and sanders side are playing a game of let's make a deal to try to get the o'malley backers to sit, or this location, stand with them. they keep doing counts. it is quite a night. quite a sight here in ames. megyn? >> peter, thank you. >> get them to do the wave or something. back with our panel, brit, kirsten, and steve. looking at these early numbers. >> one thing seems fairly evident, that is that cruz's got a slight lead but it's only a few hundred votes. way too soon to say he's seriously ahead. he seems to be doing just fine. marco rubio is down at 19%, 20%.

my sense about that is it's not a surprising number but probably enough for him to claim respectability. the real question, how the battle for cruz and trump turns out. i noticed looking at the in the republican electorate here, they are a distinct large majority, but they split pretty evenly in our entrance polling among the three top candidates. which tells you if you didn't already know it that these evangelical christians just don't vote on the question of faith, they're not voting for pope, they're voting for president. the fact they're distributing the votes the way they are telling you about the -- >> our political producer writing in, senior rubio officials, quote, expecting a very good night. based on internal exit polls, or entrance polls, at key precincts across iowa. these may be exit by the time they're talking to them. top rubio aide tells fox news they're expecting a very good night.

going in they talked about it new yo, now they're talking about it. if they're playing the expectations game, they're playing a dangerous game. >> his earlier interview, what he said was not inconsistent with that. they must have a lot of money if they're doing their own entrance polling. i'm skeptical if there's such a thing as a private entrance poll. who knows. >> speaking of rubio, steve, we're getting good news for him as politico is reporting he's expected to secure the endorsement of south carolina senator tim scott which is co t coveted and would be significant for him. the only black republican in the u.s. senate. south carolina comes up next after new hampshire. >> would be really one of the huge gets of the cycle so far. tim scott, very popular in south carolina. it would come on the heels of the endorsement from trey gowdy for marco rubio in south carolina as well. together they are both very popular politicians in south carolina but also bring organization. they also have -- >> why would they release that tonight? that was clearly leaked by somebo somebody. is that to bolster what we're seeing now? >> probably to give him momentum

heading into new hampshire on to south carolina. it was an endorsement in the works for white a while. i think there had been some thoughts this was likely coming and i think, yeah, they probably leaked it tonight to give some momentum. >> endorsements don't matter the way they used to. used to be a popular politician like tim scott would have a machine in a state and could swing the electorate in a certain person's direction. those days are gone. although it never hurts and gets you into a news story which -- a positive one. i don't think endorsements are worth very much here. >> what about the democratic side, looking at these polls, looking at the raw numbers coming in. >> yeah. looking at the raw numbers of young people, we're not seeing the kind of young people turning out that turned out for barack obama. that's one thing that's been hillary -- >> which would be near impossible, wouldn't it? he broke all the records. >> 2004 levels basically. unless that changes, that's not great for sanders. we're hearing a lot about sanders crowds but in terms of -- what martha reported in terms of first-time caucusgoers, it's only 41% which is really a

little low for, you know, it was 57% with barack obama. so if you're bernie sanders, you want that number to be a little bit bigger because she dominates with the people who have caucused. >> what do you make of it, brit, when you see the breakdown in terms of the college educated and not college educated? it seems to be breaking as we saw in the entrance polls, if you don't have a college education, you tend to prefer donald trump, if you do, you may prefer rubio here or cruz. it seems like the entrance polls were sort of -- you tell me, i'm seeing more support for rubio than predicted in those -- >> you know, that may mean he'll end up when everything is counted to have a surprisingly good night which is i think what he needs. he didn't expect to win and he was -- he didn't quite say, in answer to your question, bret, that he'd never win. they've never said they thought he would win. what he needs is a better than expected showing and to give him a little oomph going into new hampshire. he was thought not too long ago not to have anything going here

and came in and made a push. >> thanks to what, the debate? he had a strong debate performance. was it stronger than he had prior to that? >> he came in and campaigned really -- >> he spent a lot of time here over the past couple months. there's also an answer to that, if you look at the numbers, the late deciders as charles pointed out earlier, the late deciders went heavily for marco rubio, so people who made their decision in the last week, today -- >> last three days. >> 26% went to rubio today, 30% la few days. 13% last week. i mean, those are good numbers for marco rubio. it suggests that the momentum that we heard so much was actually happening. there's a number in the exit polls and i wish i had it directly in front of me now and i don't, i believe it was 46% who thought electability was the most important characteristic of their candidate chose marco rubio. >> let's talk briefly about the other candidates who we're seeing here. rand paul at about 4.4%. bush, 2.2% at this hour. and then you have huckabee,

fiorina, kasich. i talked to chris christie tonight. he wanted to be the top governor. currently he's the last governor. so how does that affect the establishment lane as they fight for this, whatever spot it is, to go up against donald trump it looks like and ted cruz? >> one thing, these results will be reflected in fund-raising, and jeb bush has plenty of money left. what is it, some number we saw today, $59 million left. breathtaking. >> in his superpac. >> he has behind him the kind of money to keep him on the air at least. so, if chris christie having said he's going to be the number one governor ends up being the number two, number three governor, i can't imagine he has much money left and will be hard for him to keep campaigning. you just have to have money to do it. that's one of the things that iowa does. you know, may not pick the winner but it sure picks a lot of losers. >> want to bring in this update to you now as we're getting this from our decision desk. we can report here that texas

senator ted cruz and new york businessman donald trump are in a very tight race. they are -- >> i'm certainly glad -- >> they are locked in a virtual dead heat. >> thanks to the decision desk. >> this is actual data that we have now processed. take a look at it. they are locked in a virtual dead heat. >> that's what the raw numbers say. >> hume? where's that cough button. >> we need it. >> florida senator marco rubio is mow in third place. this can all still shift as the election returns continue to come in. but right now, ted cruz is outperforming what had been predicted to happen, according to the latest polls, but you can see we don't have anywhere near all the precincts in. some of the precincts have about 50% of the vote tallied. some of them have zero. so you can see it's all over the board as they take in the counties and get their actual data from this microsoft app. steve, to follow up on your point, i got that number, can win in november, 20% of the gop electorate thought that to be

the most important thing, who's going to beat hillary clinton. you'd think they'd all say, yes, i want to beat the guy who can beat hillary clinton. that's not necessarily the driver for everyone and overwhelmingly they're going for rubio, 42%. >> almost 2-1 over the next competitor, trump, at 26%. >> okay, panel. thank you. all right. two big stories shaping up so far. first, turnout is so heavy, it is overwhelming some caucus sites. three times larger than predicted at one spot in des moines. second, it is a dog fight for the lead in both parties. >> chris wallace, karl rove, and joe trippi coming up as we continue live from historic iowa state capitol. america's election headquarters. coverage of the iowa caucuses rolls on.

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you're looking live now at the state capitol here in des moines, as america's election headquarters of the iowa caucuses continues. welcome back. it is an exciting night and obviously the headquarters are waiting for any results as are we. we should point out on the bottom of the screen, this is the raw vote total coming in from the different precincts. as you look live at the headquarters for donald trump, ted cruz, hillary clinton, and bernie sanders. there you can see some people

mulling around. maybe the most at the trump campaign. watching, waiting, for anything that tells them where their guy finished. >> some of the largest precincts are already starting to come in, so we expect the vote count to start going up quickly. keep your eyes on the bottom of your screen as we go back now to chris wallace anchor of "fox news sunday," karl rove, former senior adviser to president george w. bush and fox news contributor, and former howard dean campaign manager joe trippi. >> i can report the campaign cowboys are somewhat happier campers because i've got some numbers to look at and analyze now. i want to point out, though, before we go into these that the report -- the results so far are very fragmented. the big vote centers like des moines, like dubuque, davenport haven't come in yet. the smaller precincts where the caucuses go faster are coming in. karl, you're seeing some trends tonight. >> first of all, remember 24% f the precincts in and 33,000

votes cast. that would point to at least 138,000 people turning out to vote. and since you said, these tepid to tend to be the precincts in the counties where we got results. this ends up like a record total of 150,000 or more. >> we should point out 122,000 four years ago, all-time record for republicans at an iowa caucus. you're saying it could be 150,000. >> i think it's going to be. it's going to be at least 138,000 just logic dictates that. i'd say it's 150,000. >> what are you predicting for these precincts? >> that's interesting is donald trump is doing better in eastern iowa where mitt romney got strength in 2012 and marco rubio is doing well in the rural parts of the state. even some evangelical, some of the western evangelical counties. cruz offsetting it, marlparticuy polk county, des moines, mitt romney carried last time around. we have a confusing pattern. my suspicion is it's different

from last time largely because we're having a lot of new people show up. >> and do you believe this theory that's going to favor donald trump? >> it favors whoever gets them to turn out. everybody is getting their share. marco rubio is getting the late deciders who decided to come in at the last moment. ted cruz is getting people as a result i think of his organization, and donald trump is getting the people who are going to be for him but he's not getting more than the people who showed up in the hard number in his poll. >> joe, what are you seeing on the democratic side? >> look, i've been looking at pottawattamie county, council bluffs area, across the river from omaha. the reason i was looking at it, hillary clinton, it was one of her strongest counties in iowa in 2008 against obama. she got 41% of the vote there to obama's 26% of the vote. remember john edwards was in the race, too, he got about 31%. but today she's winning it but it's 51%-49% between her and bernie sanders right now with 50% of the precincts in in that county. makes me think -- >> she's underperforming there

as opposed to 2008. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. you know, look, it's still 50% out in that county and it may be council bluffs, you know, precincts that are kind to her. we don't know yet. i'm really -- >> marshall county, your bellwether from the beginning, how's that working? >> over 50% of the vote in there. bernie sanders ahead 51%-49%. it was right. it's been right seven straight democratic caucuses matching with the statewide vote so we'll see whether that pans out or not. 50% of the vote out still. >> all right. we pointed out some of the big population centers like des moines, like dubuque, like davenport really still out. who are they going to tend to favor on the republican side? >> well, we don't know. i mean, it's -- >> they wouldn't tend to favor ted cruz. >> they would tend to favor marco rubio and donald trump except the evangelical element in those counties would tend to favor ted cruz. what we're seeing tonight is because we have so many new people, some of the customary guidelines we would use are being busted up. but let me point out this.

take this number where we are now and compare it to the "real clear politics" average. the last number we had, aggregate of the most recent polls. donald trump is underperforming his number by 1.8 points. ted cruz is overperforming his number by 1.3. and marco rubio is overperforming his by 2. cruz is likely to be the result of superior organization, rubio is likely to be momentum and personality. >> and your thoughts about those big population centers as they come in. >> well, on the democratic side, it's going to be different. a lot of those population centers have universities or colleges. sanders does very well in those. you'd expect him to do better in those. it's going to be interesting, again, council bluffs isn't in on the southwest, we don't know yet. the thing i think that's clear to me is it's going to be a lower turnout than 2008 and i would caution, though -- >> you're talking about, of course, on the democratic side where you had this record 220,000. >> yeah. i think part of the reason, people forget, john edwards, i was with that campaign, there were three well-organized

campaigns in iowa on the democratic side in 2008. one of them's missing. there's not -- o'malley is just not turning out anybody to vote for him. >> and one last quick add from karl rove? >> correction. cruz is overforming by six points. >> by six points? >> six points. 23.9-29.9. i'm sorry. i misspoke on that one. >> okay. you're basically saying this is going to be very close between cruz and trump. >> yeah, and clearly the organizational strength of cruz with 12,000 volunteers, 1,000 precinct captains, all kinds of data analytics, it's clearly helping him tonight. >> and in 30 seconds -- >> look, i -- >> sanders/clinton? >> i think it's going to be really tight. this is going to be a close one. i don't know yet. you can't tell what's going to happen. we're going to be up -- this may be longer than i thought. thought it was going to be an early night tonight. >> lots of reading of the tea leaves with the campaign cowboys. back to des moines. >> so fun to listen to. thanks, guys. >> you know, we just got word from the carson campaign, a statement out of the carson

campaign. there was a rumor that he was going to leave the campaign. that he's heading to florida. and this was it. and it says "contrary to false media reports, dr. ben carson is not suspending his presidential campaign which is stronger than ever after spending 18 consecutive days on the campaign trail, dr. carson needs to go home and get a fresh set of clothes." he will be departing des moines later tonight to avoid the snowstorm and will be on the trail wednesday. we look forward to tonight's caucus results and to meaningful debates in new hampshire and south carolina." i mean, there are targets -- >> presidential candidates. they're just like us. their clothes get dirty. they have to get fresh ones. >> they have to go home. trump and cruz in a virtual dead heat as you just heard the campaign cowboys really in iowa right now, florida senator marco rubio currently in third, but, again, still early to make a call on any of those positions. >> and the night is far from over. as our coverage continues from

the historic state capitol. up next, rnc chairman reince priebus. we are america's election headquarters. don't go away. don't miss it. i think it landed. one second it's there. then, woosh, it's gone. i swear i saw it swallow seven people. seven. i just wish one of those people could have been mrs. johnson. [dog bark] trust me, we're dealing with a higher intelligence here. ♪ the all-new audi q7 is here. ♪

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in third position. i want to explain what you're seeing on the screen. it can be a little overwhelming. basically on the bottom of the screen you're seeing the number of precincts reporting. gop side, 41% so far. about 60% are still out there. democratic side about 51% reporting so far. you can see this is the actual vote that's coming in. there's no entrance poll factoring in here. this is the actual vote that's coming. you can see the percentages so far. rand paul 4%, jeb bush 3%. a moment ago we had the leader board up and could see it's at this point cruz, trump, rubio. >> the bottom of your screen has the raw vote total coming in from the precincts. wa you're looking at there on the board includes both the raw total and what we had from the entrance polls, the polls we took as people were going into the caucuses. so that extrapolates a little bit more about where we're thinking this race is. >> we wanted to make it as difficult for you to understand as possible, thus the two competing numbers. but if you want to know the actual raw vote, that's what you're seeing at the bottom of

your screen. >> i think we got it. >> i think so. we were told there would be no math. every year we go through it. >> every year. just a calculator. joining us now is reince priebus, chairman of the republican national committee. mr. chairman, thanks for joining us. >> well, i could make it a lot more complicated when you start calculating actual delegate votes. so for everybody 3.33% of the vote, each republican candidate will get one delegate out of iowa. >> okay. >> you can add that into your math. >> stop right there. >> that could be a rather -- mr. chairman, let me get your thoughts on what you're looking at here. the turnout. the early numbers. what you see in this race as you have this three-way race. really two-way at the top right now. and senator rubio in third. >> well, i see the same thing you all do. i mean, we have our own war-room here at the inc and obviously the gop is doing a lot of work out in des moines. it's going to be tight. obviously we've got a lot of

candidates doing well. someone's going to declare victory and have a great night, but there's going to be a few tickets out of iowa. i'm seeing the same thing you are. i think the enthusiasm is off the charts. that's what we see in our republican primary. i think that's been the positive in regard to our primary. yeah, there's some drama and there's intrigue and you know what, it's not always easy, but this fascination with these primaries, i think is good for our process. i think we're going to have a better nominee because of it. >> reince, thank you for being here. it's megyn kelly. karl rove was saying moments ago he thinks we could see as much as 150,000 turnout on the gop side. last year, it was significantly lower. they were saying perhaps 138,000 this year. now he's saying maybe 150,000. do you believe it will reach that high? >> yeah, i mean, that was the number i was just talking about before i got on the air when we were calculating the number because i was wondering how the different networks were calculating the amount of total in because it seemed like the

calculation was too high for the number that we thought the number would be. so i was around 150,000, myself. and so i didn't hear that karl had said the same thing earlier, but that's the same number i was running with, myself. >> wow. >> mr. chairman, what about this whole push for one establishment-type candidate, excuse me, to try to challenge donald trump and ted cruz at the top here? you look at the polls heading into new hampshire and obviously things can change, but what do you think about this effort? will there be an effort by the rnc to narrow this field? >> well, we're not going to be in that effort. i mean, if folks out there are talking like that, it's news to me. i mean, our job is going to be to get behind the nominee, to put on a great convention and go win this election once and for all for our party. so whoever our nominee is, no matter which one of the 10 or 11 candidates there are, we're going to be there and we're going to be so much better than

we were four years ago. we're not going to embraarrass r party, have the best ground game. so far we're crushing the dnc, it's not even close. >> 9:36 in the east, 8:36 here iowa time. any prediction on when we'll know? >> you know, i don't have a prediction on that, megyn. just around here, we're figuring at least a couple more hours before we feel like we're going to be in a position to know. so, i mean, again, you know, that turnout number is the big issue and how those calculations are going to be done and i think you mentioned in the earlier segment the difficulty here in predicting is that the votes are coming in kind of scattershot all over. it's short of hard to predict where these numbers are going to fall because there really isn't a necessary pattern as far as how they're coming in. >> rnc chairman reince priebus, thank you for your time, sir. >> martha maccallum as a look at

more of our entrance polling. martha, what did you find? >> all right, thanks, megyn. here's what makes this gop race so tight right now. updated numbers just coming in. let's go back to this late deciders issue. 35% of the caucusgoers tonight decided in only the last few days they are going for marco rubio. 29%. cruz, 24%. and donald trump 15%. carson at 10%. withdr you have to wonder if some of those late decisions may have migrated away from donald trump. we don't know if that's the trend yet, but it's something we're keeping an eye on. so in terms of the most important candidate quality among those caucusgoers tonight, republicans who prioritize electability are picking marco rubio. so far. that number has grown for him. he's at 43% since the last time we talked. trump is at 26% for electability. and cruz at 21%. just look, bush and fiorina in the electability area, are at 2% and chris christie's falling below that tonight.

so not good news for them. for those who say that this person shares my values, the top pick is ted cruz. 36% for him. 21% for rubio. 16% for carson. and 7% for paul. donald trump when it comes to shares my values falls below rand paul and comes in at 6% on the shares my values measure. among republicans who say that bringing change is paramount, no surprise, trump is their favorite, 34%. ted cruz who has portrayed himself as an outsider as well gets 23% of that. rubio 16%. carson 8%. biggest issues facing the next president, let's go to the democratic side for a moment. stressing their differences here. caucusgoers the most concerned with health care favor hillary clinton. 58% she gets over sanders' 37%. those who are most concerned with income inequality, something bernie sanders has talked about a lot, no surprise he gets 62% of those voters. one more here, fitting in with

sanders' emphasis on income inequality, he does better among those households with income less than $50,000 and you see the numbers there. clinton does better among higher income households. she's at 51% there. president obama won iowa in 2012 and in 2008. democrats here want the next president to continue president obama's policies, while 1/3 want more liberal policies. the same as obama, 56% more liberal, 33%. so that's pretty good news for hillary clinton there tonight as well. we'll keep crunching the numbers and get more. megyn and bret? >> interesting she's in that law library. i can see the record. >> if there are any legal challenges, we're going to have to pull a book and look it up. >> exactly. >> gorgeous room. >> we're prepared. >> we are. we are nearly two hours into caucusing and we've got a dead heat on both sides. it is a battle for first between donald trump and senator ted cruz and also senator marco

rubio who's in third right now. a two-way battle on the democratic side. >> and an overwhelming turnout at caucus sites across the state. yeah, you can see hillary clinton now edging out bernie sanders so far, but man, it is tight. it is a razor thin lead that she has right now. you can see the percentages of precincts reporting is going up considerably and we're expecting that to go faster and higher soon because we're using this fancy app this time and bill hammer has been watching that. he's going to be live next from microsoft center with all those results are coming in. don't go away. announcer: a horrific terror attack in paris. then, a brutal act of terror here at home. it's time for a tested and proven leader who won't try to contain isis. jeb bush has a plan... to destroy them. and keep america safe. jeb bush: the united states should not delay in leading a global coalition to take out isis with overwhelming force. announcer: tested and proven leadership matters.

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let us help grow your company's tomorrow, today at business.ny.gov welcome back to des moines and the state capitol. you're looking at a replica of the "u.s.s. iowa" and the bell that was on that battleship here in the state capitol building. a gorgeous building. and it is where our headquarters is for the iowa caucuses. let's check back in with bill hemmer, he joins us from the microsoft caucus center where all the results are coming in realtime and a lot coming in pretty fast, bill. >> yeah, hey, bret, good evening, again. a big question mark tonight was how this technology was going to work. this was a big deal here especially among republicans. four years ago they blew it.

they awarded the state to mitt romney on caucus night. several weeks later they had to take it back and found out that rick santorum actually won the state by a couple dozen votes. they did not want a repeat of that. microsoft came in, got involved, built the software and the app for the republican party and the democratic party and so far, bret, as of 9:47 east coast time, it's working. and everything seems to be rather smooth. to us it looked like the republican website was perhaps knocked off online but only for about a minute's time and everything seems to be going quite well with the technology. as you know, going intothis, we weren't quite sure how this would work. we haven't done it like this before. couple things to look at right now, dubuque county, far northeastern side of the state, mississippi river county, heavily catholic, those numbers are just now starting to trickle in only about 10%, 11% reporting

and show close between rubio and trump and cruz. they seem to mirror right now at least in the early stages what we're seeing throughout the rest of the state of iowa. we also emphasize on the democratic side, remember the two counties we talked about last hour, story county north of des moines, johnson county to the east, university of iowa, a lot of young voters, that's where sanders is trying to drive up the vote. he's doing well in the two counties. if he wants to win the state, he has to do very well, though. at the moment story county up eight on hillary clinton. johnson county, iowa city, university of iowa, he's up 13 on hillary clinton. is that going to be enough? right now he's keeping it close but too early to say whether or not that will be enough for sanders to take victory tonight here in iowa. but, again, the story from the microsoft center, it's working. fingers crossed as we go onward. bret, back to you. >> all right, bill, thank you. by the way, just reminding everybody on the bottom of the screen, that is the raw vote

total coming in. right now, 67% of the precincts in on the republican side, 63% on the democratic side. and those numbers are the raw votes, not the added entrance poll and raw vote total. >> we're getting there now. and the bigger counties are coming in. hopefully we're going to have some results very soon. it is a tight race for both the democrats and the republicans this evening. too close to call right now. live look here at the headquarters of trump and ted cruz. stand by. wait for it. it's coming. there we go. as trump, in any event, ted cruz will come up. those two men are locked in a very tight fight tonight. could go either way. stay tuned. you do all this research on the perfect car.

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welcome back, everyone, to america's election headquarters. we are watching the numbers come in fast and furious. you can see at the bottom of the screen. 5% of the raw vote has tabulated on the gop side. and ted cruz remains in the lead. donald trump in second. marco rubio in third. all three men with a strong showing tonight. some of the predictions of marco

rubio had been lower than this prior to the evening and the headlines so far came out of the gop chairman here who said he does believe that we will see about 150,000 turnout on the gop side which would be a record setter. there were 122,000 four years ago. >> and hearing gop precincts running out of ballots and will be able to get them what they need and clearly having a major turnout on the republican side. on the democratic side, also, a close race. you have hillary clinton and bernie sanders head to head. and there you see that is the delegate count. 451 to 432. they do it differently on the democratic side but percentage is what we're looking at. 51% to 49%. this is a dead heat. on the democratic side. as 63% of the precincts are reporting. you have a lot of that still happening at this hour. with democrats standing up and firehouses and schoolhouses and they're moving around in those

rooms. going to different corners dpepding on who they're for. >> back with us now, juan williams and dana perino. looking inside of the polling that we are just getting, the latest sweep tells us how voters are feeling tonight, shares my values. they ask, is that -- what is your top quality in a candidate? shares my values? somebody to win in november. most of the voters said shares my values most important thing to me. not a majority. of those, going overwhelmingly for cruz. 34%. marco rubio 23%. donald trump gets just 6% of those voters. to you, dana, whether the new york values thing that ted cruz tested and he must have gotten positive feedback because he busted it out at the debit and shot down by trump and most of us media folks thought trump did well on the exchange. did cruz know something we didn't know? >> absolutely. and i remember thinking that people that worked in the media in new york and washington and maybe even l.a. thought that

that was the best answer and it would help trump overtake cruz and i don't think that was the reason the polls tightened. cruz doing well in the area shows that he did a lot of groundwork, touch add lot of people and they believe he shares their values. >> on the other hand, juan, asking the folks who tellsic it like it is and who can change the they need and never mind outside the establishment, trump is killing it, if they want somebody who tells it like it is, 68% going for trump. 4% for rubio. 10% for cruz. >> wow. >> that tells you a lot. we're talking about with value voters is essentially evangelicals so you're asking someone am i voting for someone who shares my values, my belief structure, the system the way i think? and what you're hearing there is saying, yes, i like that. i do want to vote for someone like that and then here's donald

trump and donald trump is bringing the energy, the passion and he's shaking up the system in a way that evangelicals appreciate and makes them go beyond the values. i think that's what we're seeing here. back to dana's point. cruz has the structure but the surprise to me is that donald trump is doing so well with evangelical voters. >> dana and juan, bring you back in a moment. a tight race on both sides of the aisle. >> and the night is far from over. our live coverage from the state capitol in des moines rolls on next.

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visit the certified pre-owned sales event, now through february 29th. and learn more about our unlimited mileage warranty, only at your authorized dealer. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing. it is 10:00 p.m. on the east coast. 9:00 p.m. here in iowa. we are america's election headquarters. live from the historic state capitol in des moines. >> right now, the races are too close to call. we've been watching the republican side where ted cruz, donald trump and marco rubio are all locked in a tough battle. all three candidates having a strong showing tonight and, wow, the turnout is quite something. >> our friend jennifer jacobs at

"the des moines register" is tweeting out 170,000 for republicans turnout. according to gop leaders. that would be historic. >> stunning. >> well above anything we have seen here in iowa. caution. it is early. but the fact that a great reporter is getting that from top leaders is significant. democratic side, a dead heat, a big turnout for hillary clinton and bernie sanders. 51% to 49%. you see the delegates there that have been allotted. 451 to 432. democrats doing it a little differently. 63% of the precincts in. very tight race at this hour. >> our reporters are tracking the campaigns for you. we have team fox covering for you. carl cameron, john roberts at the trump headquarters, ed henry with the clinton campaign, james rosen at senator sanders' headquarters and we begin with

carl cameron. carl? >> reporter: hi, this is the point in an election night where the campaign such as cruz's the staff says they feel great and then biting their nails like crazy behind the curtain. i told you this is likely to be a three-way car wreck at the end and 4,000 votes separate cruz and trump and 4,000 votes separating cruz from rubio. the cruz campaign's take on all this for now is clearly the establishment wing which in their view is represented by marco rubio, the establishment wing is losing. they make the argument that between trump's numbers, cruz's numbers and car son's numbers they have well over two thirds of the republican party voting for conservatives and the cruz campaign and ted cruz said there's one consistent conservative in the bunch. and that he's the guy

conservatives coalesce behind. >> thank you. >> john? >> good evening to you. donald trump not having the night that he really wanted to have. and said that he probably would have. though he didn't say he would win and he has good news. winning in woodbury county where sioux city is and council bluffs and where he's not winning, very important for donald trump, he's not winning around des moines and running third in polk county. not doing well in dallas county. also not winning around scott county, where davenport is. lynn county, cedar rapids where he was earlier today. donald trump tried to do this in an unconventional fashion doing the big rallies, thousands of people to generate excitement. didn't have a particularly strong ground game and now that may be being realized in the results that we are seeing. also, interesting to point out

that donald trump did not do particularly well with people who decided late. marco rubio seems to be doing better with them and may come to rue the day he didn't show up for the final debate on thursday night because a lot of people were looking to that debate for some signals on how to make up their mind. trump was not there. many may have looked and said, you know, i'll go a different way. bret? >> john, that's interesting. thank you. >> we are just now learning that martin o'malley, former governor of maryland is suspending his campaign. ed? >> reporter: that's right, megyn. he'll do it 9:30 local time. here in des moines, iowa, at a restaurant. not showing up tonight. not reaching viability in very many of these precincts. so not a b surprise for o'malley bgetting out. looking at the numbers,

treatmently tight race on the democratic side between hillary clinton and bernie sanders. it's within a point and a half, two points with clinton in a narrow lead. here's what a democratic official said to watch. later precincts likely to have a lot of first-time voters, newcomers first time. those are more likely to be sanders people. the point being more and more as the numbers come in, likely not definite but likely sanders voters. this could tighten or sanders could get ahead. >> thank you. >> james rosen is following bernie sanders. james? >> reporter: good evening. this race is so tight now it is impossible to say how it's going to turn out. just over the last 15 to 20 minutes, we have seen this race tighten with hillary clinton's lead of about two-plus percentage points tighten. it was down to .6%. that lead for hillary clinton. this is going to be portrayed by the bernie sanders campaign as a

titanic victory. even if hillary clinton emerges with more popular votes in this caucus because they're going to cull away at the end of the evening, the two candidates with almost an equal number of delegates and bernie sanders who once trailed by 50 percentage points and avowed democratic socialist candidate to be giving hillary clinton this kind of run for her money in this the first balloting of this contest is portrayed as a major victory. the balloting is still coming in and it could go any old way at this point. >> james, thank you. >> let's bring in radio talk show host and contributor laura ingraham now. an interesting thing of the exit poll numbers is gives you a snapshot of how the electorate here in iowa is feeling. what best describes your feelings of the federal government? 92% of the republicans say

they're dissatisfied or angry. 8% say they're enthusiastic or sat satisfied. those are going for cruz. cruz edges out trump by 2 points in that category. 28% to 26%. rubio a close third with 21%. what does it tell you? >> well, precinct 62, i went to the democratic and republican rooms and fascinatinfascinating. republican room, moderate voters. a lot of sympathy and support of rubio and bush. however, when you add up carson, cruz and trump, that's the anti-establishment vote, about 62% of the republican electorate. that's about what it was and looking at the polls over the last several months, it is about 62%, 65% anti-establishment support in the republican party and the question is whether those three work together to hold off what i think is the inevitable push for people to

start coalescing behind someone like a marco rubio. the democrat room fascinating. 767 democrats who showed up. 150 more than the last caucus. and this was a huge turnout for hillary clinton. she had 562 out of 762 caucus goers in precinct 62 and they had to vote, i kid you not, three times because the sanders people were not happy how it went down. it was a big curfuffle and by the people resigned to the fact hill clinton able to turn out big support in des moines tonight. a big narrative. that 62% anti-establishment number, whether trump comes in first, second or third, that's still a very large percentage for the republican party to deal with going into a general election cycle. >> looking at the numbers and the surge perhaps other candidates, ted cruz, rubio had,

do you think that the debate had any affect on these numbers? >> could very well have. you know? this was a strategy call by donald trump in the end and they made a call that it was probably going to be better for him not to go into the debate. but, you know, look, time will tell. this is tight tonight. he didn't spend as much time doing the retail politics in iowa other candidates like ted cruz did. marco rubio, you know, had a lot of support. iowans, calling them the iowans nice and the minnesotan nice. they think marco rubio could do a pretty good job and seems like a nice and accomplished young man and i think the moderate voters at the end breaking to marco rubio but i'm telling you, you look at the 62% number and marco rubio outperforming tonight, no doubt, that 62% number is still a force to be reckoned with. question is whether the three candidates are able to work together instead of atagging

each other and i think going to give it to marco rubio in the end. >> laura, thank you so much. back with us now, brit, steve and kirsten. brit, i want to start with the newest entrance poll numbers. we have in the young people, 17 to 44, rand paul said he was going to get them all out. rubio at 44%. trump at 43%. cruz at 56%. if you add all of those together. >> right. >> you see young people coming out for ted cruz and you look at that evangelical number you wonder if that's coming from the western part of the state. >> perhaps so. the other number is if you look at the numbers s oon the scree may be a little different now, 28 cruz, 25 trump. rubio all the way up at 22 having been down in the polls at 15 at least. conservative voters. fully 84% of iowa republican

voters consider themselves conservatives and how did they break? they broke 28% for cruz. 24% for trump. and 22% for rubio. almost perfectly paralleling the state of the race as we see it now telling you about conservative support and the extent to which it mirrors exactly what we're seeing. >> updated now i think the latest sweep is 30% of the conservatives went for cruz. 22% went for rubio. 23% for trump. >> i have sweep four. >> this is sweep six. cruz gotten 30% of the conservatives. >> and -- and he's ahead. >> right. >> right? telling you the importance of that vote. >> you look at the issue by issue breakdown, not surprising to see here in iowa that trump, if immigration number one issue, trump's winning. trump is getting the immigration vote handily. 45% over the next closest guy cruz at 33% but what's interesting, steve, here the economy and jobs, trump was

leading on this in almost every poll. and yet, they're siding not with cruz or trump but with rubio with 30%. trump's got 24%. cruz got 18%. the economy, what a shift there. >> yeah. it's interesting. i don't have those latest numbers. >> we like to hold the numbers. >> that's fine. you look smart. we can be clueless again, again. >> you have questions let us know. >> i will. thank you. it was very interesting. i think to flip the rubio immigration question around, you look at rubio. he is down in this sweep i had in the single digits. >> killing it. 45% and rubio's got 9%. cruz with 33%. >> 12% of the republican electorate that thought that that was the most important issue and it's killing rubio. to the extent that you can point to an issue that's has rubio not rising higher. that's it. i have to say looking early right now at these results, the story is that the establishment lane, so much discussion about the establishment lane and the

competition and so-called establishment lane. that competition is over as far as iowa goes. >> rubio's winning it you're saying? >> yeah. tally bush, kasich, christie, and not half of what rubio has. >> when you go to new hampshire and chris kchristie say i'm the guy or jeb bush says, trust me, i can win at 2%, 4%, 3%, and rubio's at 20 plus percent -- >> right. >> how does that play the. >> doesn't play well for them. rubio is overperforming and if the numbers hold, he comes out of iowa with a big push and always the person that surprises that gets people excited and clearly the establishment choice. he is not off trailing far behind trump and cruz and going to be a serious player and hard to convince anybody. i wouldn't be surprised you

speak to this more than i can but donors pressuring them to get out of the race because you have a person now that people need to get behind. >> what do you make of martin o'malley? >> soft. >> i know. he had a small percentage. who does that help? >> in the polls they typically split between hillary and sanders evenly. not probably dramatically change the shape of the race and we can see they're in a very, very tight race, very close between them. so i would suspect that they'll probably break evenly even though they seem to be sanders type voters. >> if ted cruz wins this, he is the winner. but he put the whole enchilada bet on this place and he really needed to win and said i think he got what he needed and goes on. donald trump, i think it will be said underperformed. marco rubio it looks like having, you know, looked like 15% in the polling as we saw it yesterday a couple of polls similar on that. if he comes in in the low to

mid-20s, he will be the guy who surprised and i think what everybody's saying about him beginning to emerge as the mainstream lane candidate will start to happen. >> but this whole conventional wisdom of record turnout, trump going to soar. >> that is amazing. if trump wins without it, that's what i thought, win without it. if he got the big surge and looks like it's now happening of new voters or a larger turnout that he would win big. doesn't look like it's happening yet. if at all. >> this could speak to the fact that organization matters. right? cruz has a good organization. >> organization versus enthusiasm? interesting. >> thank you, panel. >> stay by. possible record turnout tonight in iowa and still too close to call on both sides. >> campaign headquarters filling up, the tallies coming in. 75%, 79% on the bottom of your screen there. we'll bring you the results as we get them.

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welcome back m, everyone. look at this. it is almost done. we are almost able to call this race and you can see how the leaderboard looks right now with ted cruz in the first position. donald trump in the second position and marco rubio with a surprisingly strong showing in the third position there. look at the number of votes supreme courting marco rubio and donald trump there, bret. >> this was the surge we heard about that was anecdotal for days. rubio campaign saying they thought they would have a good night. if by chance we get to the end of this voting and he comes in second somehow, overtaking donald trump, that could be quite something. but the other huge story here is ted cruz at 43,000 votes, 28%. 99% in. this looks like it's heading towards a ted cruz win in iowa. something that he predicted and his organization on the ground predicted and now it's coming to fruition. >> want to get back to the

washington panel now. they know the counties outstanding and may enlighten us. chris wallace is here, karl rove and chris trippy. chris? >> yeah. we are looking at same numbers and trying to make sense of how the world turned tonight. we're not calling it officially for ted cruz to win the iowa caucus. why, karl? >> he is doing really well in rural iowa. he's doing well in some surprising places like cedar rapids. he is running second in the des moines area. despite the fact he's losing in the west to donald trump, he is running a statewide effort. >> is there anything that you see as megyn asked in the precincts out seem to conceivably lose him this caucus? >> i don't think so. i think it will tighten a little bit because what looks to be out are in the des moines area.

a little bit in the eastern. those appear to be the biggest places and in those places he is tending to run less than his current statewide average and i don't think see anything in this to cause me to believe he would lose. >> on the republican side, basing it on the "des moines register" poll on sunday donald trump by a fairly significant margin underperforming. marco rubio by a big margin overperforming. how come? >> he's running poor -- less well in the blue collar counties. trump is. southeast part of the state where you expect him to run and then in the des moines area with college educated voters he is third. he's offset it to some of the degree by taking the western iowa counties. woodbury and plymouth on the west side. council bluffs across from omaha with tea party people running 4.2% less than the clear

politics average. >> what about marco rubio? he was at 15% in the "des moines register" andtonight. >> overperforming the real clear politics average. he's doing well in the southeast part of the state where romney did well. >> davenport. >> and johnson county where iowa city. and doing really well in the des moines area and interesting to me he's running second in rural counties, particularly the west with evangelical. >> a chance he beats trump? >> looking now at my suspicion is he's now within statewide he's within about 3,000 votes. i bet he is going to be within 1,500 votes behind trump by the end of the evening and depending on the big counties. one other point, we will have over 180,000 turnout. they may say 170. i bet on 180. >> you should be pushing th ini

point with me all night. this is too close to call but you have interesting stats why if sanders doesn't win that's why it will be. >> he's starting to underperform in the university and college counties. you know, in johnson county, where the hawkeyes are -- >> university of iowa. >> iowa city. obama beat her by 32 points in 2008. sanders beating her but only clinton by 16 points. >> all right. we have to go. we are apparently having breaking news now. back to chicago. >> thank you, chris. and we have some breaking news for you now. fox news can now project that texas senator ted cruz has won iowa's republican presidential caucuses beating new york businessman donald trump finishing second and florida senator marco rubio finishing a close third. based on election returns from across the state, fox can also

project that retired neuro surgeon ben carson is a distant fourth and kentucky senator rand paul is fifth. >> this is what senator ted cruz working for. he put a lot of time, a lot of money, a lot of effort into iowa. you're looking at cruz headquarters right now. live in des moines. and doesn't look like they have gotten word. i'm not sure. >> clearly not gotten the news. we have our panel here and this is significant. i mean, this is a huge win for ted cruz. he needed to win this state and people predicting his demise in this race if he did not, steve. >> huge win for ted cruz. his team had confidence all along the organization lead them to prevail. they had done considerable work on analytics. they had a very sophisticated get out the vote operation and some reporters mocking myself included talking about how many -- they knew there were 9,131 voters who were deciding between cruz and rubio. and they could reach out and

influence those voters as they headed to the caucus. who knows if they were that good? but they were clearly very good and a big win for ted cruz. >> brit, ted cruz put it all on iowa. >> he did. >> what happens coming out of iowa going to a perhaps unfriendly place in new hampshire? >> well, he is coming up a bit in new hampshire. he's 12, 13% which is higher than he had and he'll get a burst of publicity and come in as the iowa winner and new hampshire has a habit of being somewhat disrespectful to iowa winners and doesn't mean it happens this time. he -- i think he deserves credit for running a disciplined campaign, well organized here where organization is so important. and one more thing. he made a very gutsy call on this ethanol mandate, ethanol subsidy. >> candidate who ran against the sitting six-time governor who said you cannot elect ted cruz. >> right.

and he -- you know, tempting in a situation to trim your sails but he didn't really do that and deserves in my book credit for doing that. rubio is a winner. it's interesting to see how donald trump and donald trump support earls will react to the fact he's beaten. certainly convincingly it seems. the aura of inabilivisibility m stripped away an how he responds and the voters. >> kerstin, looking forward to new hampshire now, which is a more moderate state i guess in the voting as the demo goes, just looking at the exiting polling here, entrance polling here, the moderate voters in iowa, they went 35% for trump, 9% for cruz, 26% for marco rubio. so it was about did what? 9-point difference between trump and rubio of moderate voters.

>> benefits rubio much more in the next state and i want to give ted cruz's due here and battered first of all. donald trump has gone after him and the attacks didn't work, you know, the canadian attack and nobody likes him attack and really been hammered and run a good campaign. >> he showed up at the fox news debate and took a beating. the headline next day not good for him but he argued the points. >> exactly. to the point the fact that trump missed the mark. most of all, look. we have a record evangelical turnout here, as well. with cruz and i think he can take credit for that and winning 33% of them. that's great accomplishment. >> steve, i have asked it a couple of times but can we say that not going to the debate hurt trump, a strategic error,

that close? >> i don't think you can point to that and make a conclusion but all of the data that we have about the decision about the timing of the swing of support to a marco rubio, donald trump didn't pick up many of the late deciders at all at a time when people making the decisions in this last several days. so yeah. i think it's fair to conclude that. i don't think you can make a one to one causal argument but it looks like that. >> takes groundwork, brit. organization in iowa. it takes -- they respect their first in the nation status and they take it seriously. >> they do, indeed, bret. this is going to engender a discussion now among political junkies like ourselves about which is more important, enthusiasm or organization? cruz supporters from what i tell and hear from them are quite enthusiastic about him. >> on twitter. >> right. but certainly no. one thing to say about donald trump is supporters are extremely enthusiastic.

and it wasn't enough for him to carry the day out here. he never really organized the state in the way you classically have to do and he got beat. so that will be a discussion worth having. >> two update from the campaign trail. mike huckabee is dropping out of the race. he has tweeted out i'm officially suspending my campaign. thank you all for all of your loyal support. not a huge surprise there and the man that won iowa not long ago doesn't come close and this from the clinton camp. attributable to a clinton aide saying turnout is high. which the sanders campaign has always said would benefit them but we believe, this is from the clinton camp, we believe we have won tonight. fox news is not ready to declare that. back to the gop race, first of all, steve, what do you think? does the huckabee -- does he have anything to offer either one of the candidates?

donald trump scheduled a trip through arkansas next week and many suggested perhaps that's -- after huckabee showed up at -- trump's event last week in iowa and maybe there's an endorsement there waiting. >> the team said they declined that. no plans to be in little rock when trump was in little rock. i think that's -- that's not going to have an affect one way or the other and talking about somebody with 2%, previous winner of the iowa caucuses here in 2008, it seems like he doesn't have much real pull anymore. >> not going to make a difference. >> other question is, on the notion of trump's invisibility and being a winner and the country getting sick of winning and how does that play now having, you know, now that he's lost? >> i think it's a hard argument to make at this point if he comes in second. looks like it's second. donald trump has dominated the discussion of this campaign for the last six months. he has dominated the media

coverage. he's gotten, you know, inord nant number of media appearances beyond the other candidates gotten an appears to have gotten him a quarter of the republican vote. so the time that he has spent as a leader of this race that he has benefited from getting i think pretty good media treatment may be over. >> brit, heading into new hampshire he holds double digit leads. some polls up to 23% over the nearest come we or the and one thinks over the next week there's a shifting tide in new hampshire. >> well, it looks like, you know, we now have a full-blown clear three-way race with each of these candidates having been close enough to winning that all comes out with something to go on in to new hampshire. i think, you know, cruz has a win. rubio has an expectations win. and trump has a loss. and as steve suggesting, i mentioned before, this whole aura about him i think may begin

to subside. and we'll hear more and more from and about the other candidates. will everybody cover every live donald trump speech as many of the networks have done for so long? i'm not sure. i think, you know, others now can claim a share of the stage and i don't think that can help him going forward. >> stand by. >> cleef political correspondent carl cameron from the cruz campaign headquarters. campaign carl? >> reporter: hi, bret. the cruz campaign said they've proven take take the donald trump punch and beat him and anticipate that trump tries again to come hard at cruz in new hampshire in the days ahead but the argument here from the cruz campaign is he's inoculated and the blows bounce off and raises the question of whether or not trump might for the first time in months unleash on marco rubio clearly a threat and with only a couple thousand votes of surpassing donald trump.

the cruz campaign roars into new hampshire and brit was saying sometimes new hampshire flips the switch on the folk that is do well in iowa but unlike in iowa where there's a very, very high evangelical part of the electorate, they call it the liberty movement or 603 movement after the area code of new hampshire and it's been growing in large measure with ted cruz's help. he is quietly nurturing conservative independence and independents can vote in the primary and the movement for months. rand paul has something of a foothold there and fifth here in iowa could give rand paul an opportunity to excel in new hampshire or improve. for cruz and trump, going into new hampshire now, the question will be, what does donald trump do? who does he attack? perhaps, does he dial back the criticism and try to alter the campaign and talk about issues and policy a bit more?

cruz campaign couldn't care less. they're leaving iowa a head of steam they could only dream of. >> we're waiting for marco rubio. while we wait for senator rubio, oh, he is in the room we're told. let's head to rubio campaign headquarters. >> they were fantastic. i want to thank them really quickly. i'm very proud of the campaign we have built here. i'm very proud of the campaign that marco man. i was a first state chair in the nation to sign up and not one day i was not proud to support marco rubio. he's going to beat hillary clinton. [ applause ] so marco has a flight to new hampshire so we're going to get on with this. please welcome the next president of the united states, marco rubio.

[ cheers and applause ] ♪ >> thank you. thank you. thank you! thank you. thank you. [ chanting ] thank you. so -- so this is the moment they said would never happen. for months, for months they told us we had no chance. for months they told us because we offered too much optimism in the time of anger we had no chance. because we didn't have the right endorsements or the right political connections we had no chance. they told me that we have no chance because my hair wasn't

gray enough and my boots were too high. they told me i needed to wait my turn. that i needed to wait in line. >> this is your turn! >> but tonight, tonight here in iowa, the people of this great state sent a very clear message. after seven years of barack obama, we are not waiting any longer to take our country back! this is not a time for waiting. for everything that makes this nation great now hangs in the balance. this is a time where we need a president that will truly preserve and protect and defend the constitution of the united states. not one that undermines, attacks and ignores the constitution of the united states.

this is a time for a president who will defend our second amendment rights. not a president who undermines them. this is a time for a president that will rebuild the u.s. military because the world is a safer and a better place when the united states has the most powerful military in the world. this is no ordinary election. 2016 is not just a choice between two political parties. 2016 is a referendum. it is a referendum on our identity as a nation and as a people. and america, there are only two ways forward for us now. we can either be greater than we've ever been so we can be a great nation in decline. if bernie sanders or hillary clinton get elected -- [ booing ] -- if they were to win we would be a great nation in decline. if they win, obamacare becomes

permanent. if they win, these unconstitutional executive orders of this president become permanent. if they win, our military continues to decline. and if they win, the balance of our supreme court will be controlled by liberal justices for over a decade or longer. they cannot win. hillary clinton is disqualified from being the president of the united states. because she stored classified and sensitive information on her e-mail server, because she thinks she's above the law. and hillary clinton can never be commander in chief because anyone who lies to the families of people who have lost their lives in the service of this country can never be commander in chief of the united states.

and so, tonight, i thank you you here in iowa. i thank you. tonight we have taken the first step but an important step towards winning this election. if i am our nominee and i will be our nominee thanks to what you have done here in this great state. when i am our nominee, we are going to unify this party and we are going to unify the conservative movement. when i'm our nominee, we are going to grow the conservative movement. we are going to take our message to the people who are struggling paycheck to paycheck. to the students living under the burden of student loans. to the families struggling to raise their children with the right values. we will take our message to them. and we will bring them to our side. when i am our nominee we will unite our party, we will grow our party and we will defeat

hillary clinton or bernie sanders or whoever they nomin e nominate. i want to thank all mighty and all powerful god. for the chance that he has given us to be a part of this endeavor here in iowa. i want to thank my wife and my family. i want to congratulate my friend senator ted cruz. he worked really hard here in iowa and he earned his victory here tonight. i want to thank another good friend of mine. governor mike huckabee for his service to our country, to the state of arkansas. he's announced he's suspending his campaign.

we have tremendous admiration for governor huckabee and we thank him for all he's done. [ applause ] two centuries ago an extraordinary generation living in one place at one time here in america colonists of an english colony declared their independence from the most powerful empire in the world. they did it with a powerful words of principle that our rights come from our creator. they do not come from our government and over the rest is a two-century history of the most ickes troid their nation in the history of mankind. i know america is special because i was raised by people that knew what life was like outside of america. i was raised by people who came to this country with nothing. they barely spoke english at the time. they had no money. my father stopped going to school when he was 9 years old. he had to go work. he would never go back to

school. he would for the next 70 years of his life. they struggled arriving here in america. they were discouraged but they persevered. less than a decade after arriving here with nothing, my father a bartender on miami beach, they owned a home. not a mansion. but a safe and stable home. in a safe and stable neighborhood. decades later, they would retire with dignity and with security. and the most important thing of all for them, they left all four of their children with a life better than their own. this was the purpose of my parent's life. to give their kids, us, the chance to do all the things they never could. that's not just my story. that's our story. that's america's story. that's the story of your parents. you know the stories. of your parents who sacrificed and gave up so much so you could be what they could not. it's the stories of those parents today doing the same for

their children. it is this that makes america special. and it is this what we fight now to preserve. this is the kind of country that i want to leave for my children. this is the kind of country your children deserve to inherit, as well. and this is what we must now decide. whether we will remain that kind of country or whether we will be the first generation to lose it. it's an important choice. and one that each generation before us has had to make. for america is not a special country by accident. america is a great nation because each generation before us did their part. each generation before us sacrificed. they confronted their challenges. they embraced their opportunities and for over two centuries each generation has left the next better off than themselves. now the time has come for us to do the same. now the moment has arrived for this generation of americans to rise up to the calling of our

heritage. now the time has come for us to take our place and do what we must. and when i'm elected president of these great united states we will do our part. when i -- when i am elected president, when we together achieve this victory, we will embrace all of the principles that made america great and we will apply them to the unique challenges of this new century and when our work is done here's what history will say of this generation. it will say that we lived in the early yeerp years of this new c in difficult and uncertain time

but we remembered who we were. we rose up to the challenge of our time. we confronted our probables and we solved them. and because we did the american dream didn't just survive. it reached more people and changed more lives than ever before. because we did our children and our grandchildren grew up to be the freest and the most prosperous americans that ever lived. because we did what needed to be done, the 21st century wasn't just as good as the 20th century, it was better. it was a new american century. [ applause ] this is the task before us. and i thank my lord and savior jesus christ. i thank god for allowing me the opportunity to come this far with each of you.

i am grateful to you, iowa. you believed in me when others didn't think this night would be possible. when perhaps we were lost in the dayty narrative, when some said it was time to step aside. you walked with us. you made the calls and knocked on doors. you made a huge difference tonight. we are going to be back. i will be back here in october next year and september of this year. because -- i said next year. i said next year. i'll be next year, too. i'll be back in october and september of this year because when i'm our nominee we are going to win iowa and we are going to win this election for this country. [ cheers and applause ]

and so, iowa, thank you so much. we'll never forget you. we'll see you soon again and, new hampshire, we will see you in the morning! thank you. god bless you. ♪ >> senator marco rubio with a wrap-up speech of a big night. overperforming the polls going in. there was only one poll over the past year where he got over 20% it happened to be tonight. saying that 2016 is a referendum on our identity as a people and if bernie sanders or hillary clinton wins, it is declining nation. the fact he has to mention bernie sanders possibly winning this race and being the democratic nominee suggests a different environment on that side. senator marco rubio, obviously, attacked for his gang of eight support on immigration and everyone thought was going to be a major problem here in the state of i with and overcame that to come in close third and

almost knocking on the door of donald trump in second. >> certainly didn't help him, for those to whom immigration was the most important issue he did poorly. just a little color for you from here at trump campaign headquarters and the producer on the scene saying they were watching marco rubio speak and when he attacked hillary clinton and bernie sanders, the trump supporters cheered. marco rubio's speech. we are now waiting to hear from donald trump who's come in second in this election to ted cruz and then we'll go to cruz campaign headquarters hearing they're gathering. steve king and others are there. >> ted cruz has already set a record for the most iowa caucus votes of a single candidate as s we look live in trump headquarters. let's listen in as he takes the stage.

>> thank you very much. thank you. thank you very much. i love you people. i love you people. thank you. unbelievable. i have to start by saying i absolutely love the people of iowa. unbelievable. unbelievable. so, on june 16th, when we started this journey, there was 17 candidates. i was told by everybody, do not go to iowa. you could never finish in the top 10. i said but i have friends of iowa. i have a lot of people in iowa. i think they'll really like me. let's give it a shot. they said don't do it. i said i have to do it. and we finished second and i want to tell you something, i'm honored and i want to congratulate ted and the

incredible candidates, including mike huckabee who has become a really good friend of mine. congratulations to everybody. congratulations. i want to thank all of the folks that worked with us. we had a great team and we'll continue to have a great team. we're just so happy with the way everything worked out. and most importantly, i have to thank my life, and laura and eric, and vanessa and don. they went out and they were doing speeches and don and eric did about six speeches today. i want to thank my family. they have been amazing and supportive. and we've had every indication we're going now, we have a poll. we're at 28 points ahead, okay. new hampshire, we love new hampshire. we love south carolina. and we're leaving tonight and tomorrow afternoon we'll be in

new hampshire. and that will be something special. it's going to be a great week, we're going to be up here next week and i think we're going to be proclaiming victory, i hope. i don't know who is going to win between bernie and hillary. hillary has bigger problems maybe bigger than the problem she's got in terms of nominations but we've had so many different indications and polls that we beat her and beat her easily. and we will go on to get the republican nomination and we will go on to easily beat hillary, or bernie, or whoever the hell they throw up there. iowa, we love you. we thank you. you're special. we'll be back many, many times. in fact, i think i might come here and buy a farm. i love it. okay? thank you. thank you everybody. thank you.

thank you very much. >> donald trump, having come in second at the iowa caucuses, harkening back to when he first entered this race, many folks counting him out altogether, off to new hampshire. by that showing he had success tonight, it is true, however, not the results he ultimately wanted, which was to come in first. ted cruz received that honor, marco rubio congratulated him, and donald trump saying he is very happy and says he hopes he will win iowa and saying he is greatly ahead in new hampshire. we will see. >> we have to take a break here, we're taking a look at ted cruz headquarters, but on the democratic side, it's only separated by only.2%.

>> wow. >> we're rounding to 50% on the bottom of the screen, there, you see 90% of the precincts in. this is a barn burner, folks on the democratic side as we wait for ted cruz to give his acceptance speech of the iowa caucus win. >> don't go away. we're going to be right back. you're won't miss anything. stay with us. ♪

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welcome back, everybody. it is 11:00 p.m. in the east, 10:00 p.m. here in iowa and the crowd at ted cruz's head quarters is anticipating his arrival. we expect him to be there soon and make his remarks as the winner. he has sent out a message to the associated press tonight as followed, iowa win signifies strength of conservatives against washington insiders. so now, we know who won the iowa caucuses on the g.o.p. side and it is ted cruz who peaked in december and suffered a blow in the polls leading up to tonight's caucuses only to win over donald trump, who congratulated him moments ago. marco rubio in a close battle behind trump for third. however, the real interesting race, thing about the evening, yet to be decided is what's happening on the dem side, bret?

>> it is neck and neck. separated by.2%. and you can see on the raw totals, 90% of the precincts have reported. there are still some out there. we don't know what the hold up is. we're going to get the campaign cowboys back in to look at the remaining districts and counties, and you remember at the beginning of the broadcast we talked about the five regions of iowa and how they play. depending outstanding vote is on the democratic side could tell us whether it's headed for bernie clinton and bernie sanders. the mere fact that bernie sanders is essentially tied to hillary clinton is stunning in and of itself. >> this is a must win for him. his entire campaign strategy rests on winning iowa, winning new hampshire and trying to build some sort of momentum to

take down the presumed front runner on the democratic side. so he's watching this more closely than anyone and the clinton campaign predicted a win in this state. so we continue to watch that side. >> it is 11:00 p.m. on the east coast. we have a winner on the rin side, ted cruz is the winner and we're awaiting his remarks but the big indecision at this moment is the democratic side. hillary clinton 50% to 49%, perhaps a little ticking up of the vote total. let's try to get a breakdown. >> we're going to go live to our campaign cowboys, space cowboys, it's odd. they know what they're doing and chris wallace