sunday night, 8:00 eastern, one more reminder. we will be in philadelphia. looking forward to that with the voters, the viewers and candidates the ninth we will. looking forward to see everybody there. if you can make it to philly, otherwise you can tune in eight until 10 on sunday night and we are looking forward to it. bill: fox news town hall, send your questions. martha: see you there guys. >>. jon: primary season rolls on. just four days from now people in five northeastern states had to the polls and all the candidates are campaigning to try to win as many votes and delegates as possible. good friday morning, i'm jon scott. heather: i'm heather come in for jenna lee. we got news going on this morning so let's get to that starting with politics. voters in connecticut, pennsylvania, delaware, maryland and rhode island will make choices tuesday in the next round of primaries.

republican front-runner donald trump hoping to get closer to that 1237 number of delegates. that's the number who needs to clinch the nomination. jon: but ted cruz and john kasich say they are not going anywhere. both promise they will stay in the race until the convention this summer in cleveland. rich edson live in washington with the latest. rich? reporter: good morning john and presidential front-runner donald trump has to win more than half the outstanding delegates in these upcoming contests to secure the republican nomination on the first ballot. according to a tally by the associated press, donald trump has 845 delegates. ted cruz has 559.ohio governor john kasich has 148. cruz and kasich, he says to drop out and he also tweeted cruz said kasich should leave because he couldn't get 1237. now he can't get to 1237. dropout, lying ted. cruz and kasich maintain they are the only republicans who can win in november. >> what we are seeing in maryland and across the country is 65 to 70 percent of

republicans understand that donald trump is not the best candidate to go head-to-head with hillary clinton. >> they want to get me out of the race because they don't want me to run against hillary. it's interesting. i've got my competitors trying to get me out, the democrats trying to get me out and guess what?i'm not getting out just so you all know. reporter: tuesday five northeastern states vote. real clear politics average of those 18 polling show donald trump has this is financial aid in each. trump campaign in delaware and maryland, kasich in connecticut and cruz is holding rallies in scranton and pennsylvania. the texas senator condemning trump for his recent remarks pushing to change the republican party platform to allow abortion in cases of rape, incest or where the health of the mother is at risk of trump also criticized the law requiring transgender people to use the bathroom of their gender.

this is trump's campaign, says we are going to see a new donald trump, a real different guy referring to their candidate perhaps running a more traditional campaign. that came thing continues this afternoon. we will see. back to you. jon: rick edson in washington dc. rich, thank you. the candidates are not letting up ahead of the next critical round of primaries. >> we have to be tough for a little while and i will be at some point, i'm going to be so presidential that you people will be so bored. >> i am here today with a word of hope and encouragement. all across maryland and all across this country, america is waking up and help is on the way. >> we have to accumulate delegates. we don't accumulate delegates, time to go home but we're going to accumulate delegates x we have to come together as a country and obviously primary

campaigns, general election campaign, there's going to be a lot of contrast drawn. people are going to fight hard to get the votes to win, i totally by that. that's what we do. but let's not lose sight of what's really at stake here. >> we demand real change, not tinkering around the edges change. jon: for more on this fascinating primary season let's bring in iliana johnson, washington editor for national review. caitlin burns is national political reporter for real clear politics. iliana, you first.donald trump says this race is over. is it? ? >> you have to take trump's words and the mail that his campaign sent out supposedly meant for internal purposes but claiming he would reach 1400 delegates before the convention. it's what he wants people to begin to believe and start saying. he wants people to believe he is the inevitable candidate, not just the front-runner but that he's got this nomination clinched and what ted cruz

needs to do is really fill the vacuum. there was a vacuum after he won wisconsin. he really didn't fill it and he needs to not let this narrative said in that donald trump has this clinched and he needs to continue to make the case for his candidacy which i'm not surehe's doing right now . jon: caitlin, i guess you can see pennsylvania is the big prize of this tuesday coming up. on the republican side, who is best positioned to take advantage.>>? donald trump is leading the pennsylvania polls right now but pennsylvania awards most of its delegates are unbound so a lot of according of those delegateswill happen behind the scenes and as we know, the cruz campaign has been well organized when it comes to backing up delegates . but the key will be if donald trump wins pennsylvania, that will give him some big momentum in addition to those other four states in which he is also positioned to do well and a lot of these unbound delegates in pennsylvania are saying they would support the winner of

their district so if trump is able to win a lot of those districts, he could convince them to come over to his side and that's also getting an incentive to kasich and cruz to target districts where they can do well and pick up some delegates that way. jon: let's talk a little bit about the democratic race and a piece that i saw in the boston globe this morning talking about ernie sanders and the problems he has had turning his support into voters. it says, 15,000 people packed into new york's washington square park to hear us senator bernie sanders. the largest rally for any candidate in the primary until 28,000 people came to hear sanders and prospect park in brooklyn a few days later. on tuesday, sanders lost the new york primary by 16 percentage points. sanders not only was brooklyn but also the neighborhood where he grew up. what is with that, illyana?

why is he not seeing more votes despite these massive rallies, the big attendance he's getting? >> it's a dichotomy between the enormous crowd showing up for bernie sanders but not the votes showing up in the voting booth. it really suggests the excitement and enthusiasm is with bernie sanders but that hillary clinton really has this nomination locked up and i think there is truly an ideological's struggle akin to what's happening in the republican party happening on the democratic side between more centrist clinton-ism of the 90s and the democratic socialism of bernie sanders but i think what's important is hillary clinton and her campaign have wanted bernie sanders essentially to lay off his vicious attacks against her and to go away and received into the background so they can unite the party. he is not doing that. he is absolutely taking it to her and launching attacks on

her against her transparency, her unwillingness to release transcripts of her wall street speeches that highlight her negatives. her dishonesty, her lack of transparency and that's the problem she's going to take into the general election. he knows he's not going to win the primary but he is doing her a tremendous amount of damage in the meantime you want illyana, you agree with that and what's the motivation for him to stay in? just to damage the front-runner, the woman was certain to get the nomination? i think sanders first of all has been able to raise a lot of money. he spent a lot of money but he certainly has small dollar, grassroots donations coming in but the test for both of them will really be in pennsylvania. pennsylvania is a key state for the clintons. democrats have parried pennsylvania since bill clinton won in 1992. but again, these are white working-class voters that bernie sanders might be able to appeal to. clinton is winning or leaving pennsylvania i should say in the polls by a significant margin. bernie sanders is campaigning hard they're trying to put

pressure on her, talking about the things he's been talking about in terms of wall street money anddonations and that sort of thing. so you saw bill clinton campaigning in western parts of the state , reminding democrats there why they have supported him in the first place so that will be a key. if clinton can win big bear i think she can start really putting this race away. sanders will need another win in a state like pennsylvania that has an electorate perhaps more favorable to him then after that, i think if clinton is able to have a big win she can use that as a way to really to the general. jon: we could know a lot more where this race stands after tuesday. kasich johnson, caitlin burns, real clear politics, thank you both. be sure to tune in this sunday for america's town hall hosted by bill hammer and martha maccallum at eight eastern time on the fox news channel.and from three until five p.m.

eastern, heather and i will be here keeping you apprised of all the latest in this fascinating race for the white house. heather: cindy spend your sunday with us. we will be here. a lot more politics as we go as the battle for delegates heats up. 31 republican governors across the country have influence over a total of 1570 delegates. some officials even saying that delegates are more loyal to the governors and they are to any candidate. interesting new angle. our political correspondent mike emmanuelle is in washington. explain how this works out. reporter: in this most unusual political campaign cycle could be more drama ahead if republicans don't select a nominee on the first ballot. while republicans don't hold the white house, they are ahead in the number of executives leading states. here's a map of the 31 republican governors leading states ranging from arizona to illinois to massachusetts to florida and many places in between. one expert told us if the party

doesn't unite around one presidential candidate on the first ballot, republican governors will likely have majorinfluence . >> if we go to a second or third or fourth ballot, they will be critically important because they are often times presiding over their delegation. they are certainly the senior member in their delegation and if there are discussions to be had with various campaigns or other states, they will go through the governor. reporter: some of the influential republican governors are mike pence from indiana, larry hogan from maryland and south carolina's nikki haley, some of the key players to watch. we are seeing presidential candidates trying to court these governors for support, recognizing their popularity. if there's a winner of the nomination for president on the first ballot, one expert says expect the governors to sit there like potted plants but if there is no nominee, that governor will be the most

powerful republican to his or her delegation as it looks for guidance. >> i think if donald trump fails to get the 1237 vote majority on the first ballot, you could see delegates from states which voted for trump suddenly be released and going for another candidate and governors like nikki haley of south carolina, pat mccrory of north carolina, tennessee could be influential. in pushing delegates to support another candidate.reporter: if there is chaos in cleveland, those 31 governors could provide some direction. heather? heather: mike emmanuelle in washington. great to see you be on an unbelievable story here. a fitness instructor murdered in church. the latest on the police investigation to find terry beavers killer. plus, exactly one month ago brussels was rocked by simultaneous terror attacks.

how that city is paying tribute to the victims today. also, we want to hear from you. now that donald trump is getting closer to the nomination, you think the mainstream media will give him more respect moving forward? you can join the conversation. go to foxnews.com/happeningnow and share your thoughts. you don't let anything keep you sidelined. that's why you drink ensure. with 9 grams of protein and 26 vitamins and minerals. for the strength and energy to get back to doing... ...what you love. ensure. always be you.

jon: investigators say a fitness instructor whose body was found in a texas church died of a head wound. police believe that an assailant seen on surveillance video in swat gear broke into the church and killed terry missybevers . the mother was there to teach an early-morning fitness class. a florida man who landed his gyro copter on the west lawn of the capital last year was sentenced to 120 days in prison. douglas hughes claims he did it to call attention to campaign-finance reform. he pled guilty to six federal charges. not guilty, i should say. a man nicknamed the ninja

burglar has accepted a plea deal with authorities in new york, new jersey and connecticut. robert cast on so confessing to more than 100 break-ins over the decade. he pled guilty to three counts of burglary. as the statute of limitations had expired on many of the others. heather: new information now on the brussels subway station where 16 people were killed in a homicide bombing.that station is now set to reopen as belgium marks one month ends the terror attacks took place. the brussels transit authority announcing today the subway station will reopen on monday. attributes held today to remember all those who died including the americans. benjamin hall is live for us in london with more. reporter: i heather. it has been one month since those awful events in brussels. where 32 people died and today the cities and countries commemorating all those people but today we are also learning more about the attackers and

the link they had inside the isis organization. the belgian parliamentary commission commemorated the 16 people who died there. the subway will roll we open on monday and include a wall of memory.today was also reported that not seem like rally, one of the airport bombers was also one of the isis prison guards who held, interrogated and tortured or french journalists inside syria. before hostages released after a ransom was paid in 2014 after 10 months in captivity. now a lawyer for two of them has confirmed that not shima was one of their brutal captors. they were held alongside other western hostages who were killed including jim foley. this direct link reaffirms the extent to which the attacks in brussels and paris were planned and organized from inside isis held territory in syria and iraq. meanwhile, terrorists attack suspectsalah abdeslam has been charged with attempted murder .

over the attacks last month in brussels but he is expected to be extradited first and the belgium head of the security analysis enter saying this week they pick up signals showing isis has continued to send fighters into europe so although he didn't elaborate on that, fears very much exist. heather: benjamin, thanks so much. jon: some of your favorite stores could be closing this summer. we will tell you why dozens of sears and kmart stores across the country have to shut down. and there are growing questions about the death of a ♪ ♪ superstar. ♪ as we await the results of ♪ an autopsy on prince and the ♪ world mourns the passing of ♪ a groundbreaking musician. ♪ why do we scream at each ♪ other? ♪ this is what it sounds like ♪ when doves cry. >> once driven, there's no going back.

heather: troubling reports about the death of a music legend. an autopsy will be performed today on prince's body after he was found dead in his home in minnesota yesterday. dmz reporting the superstar had allegedly been treated for an overdose of the painkiller percocet just six days before his request. we cannot confirm that report but that report is out there. prince's representatives say he had been battling the flu earlier this month. you will us to talk about it, doctor ernest hattaway, physician of emergency medicine at saint barnabas hospital in the new york area in the bronx. doctor, we have this autopsy taking place today. what can we expect a? >> autopsy take a while to get toxicology reports back but hopefully we can get an idea as to what caused the demiseof prince . heather: his camp is saying it was the flu but there have also been reports about an alleged drug overdose.

we can't confirm that but could there be a confluence of events here question mark.>> there definitely could be. a lot of these things are speculative but influenza still kills people and we see that even every year. it's a serious disease especially in someone who may be overworked or exhausted, running low on their immune system. he was also in an airplane. maybe he had issues with blood clots or permanent embolus is as well. heather: even a blood clot could take days before it could eventually kill somebody? >> potentially depending on where the size, where it's located. these things can work together to create a more serious problem. heather: there are reports he went to the hospital in molina illinois on friday but reports that he left early, that the doctors wanted him to stay for 24 hours but that he left after just three hours. what could be significant? any diagnosis could require you to stay in the hospital longer. it could have been a complication but if he did in fact use medications they would

require treatment for that. it's possible they wanted him to stay for observation. heather: another topic i want to ask you about, the cdc has come out with a troubling new report about the leading cause of death in this nation, the 10th leading cause and that is suicide. there's a new federal report on this that the rate has risen sharply on the americans over the last decade and a half. between 1999 and 2014, there's been a 24 percent increase in suicides and women, the rate rose the fastest. what's this all about question mark x tremendous increase. they look at a number of factors. one could be the fact the economy hasn't been doing so well. an economic downturn, people are losing their houses, their jobs, these things can contribute to that. heather: but you think about that for men, not women. >> women also, many households have both men and women in the workforce. two income houses be said of course, but you don't really think, you don't associate higher suicide rate with women than you do men.

>> i guess that's true, looking at the studies initial statistics but i have to tell you that today with the pressures that we are all facing, both economic, social, things like that, social media, that's also increasing rates for young children i'm assuming. heather: let me tell folks about that. a tripling of the rate among young girls. girls under the age of 14 for suicide in the last 15 or so years. what the parents need to know and what is that about? >> parents have to be into this. look at changes in behavior. have a become withdrawn, less social, less outgoing. in their health. kings of that nature. any type of substance abuse. heather: what shocked me as a parent is some of these are very young children, as young as five, six, seven, eight. >> i would imagine it has to do a lot with the exposure they get from the media, internet, cell phones, things like this. all inundate children with

images and issues that should be reserved for later on when they are little more mature and able to handle this. heather: it's hard to keep an eye on these things but it's good to let parents know that is a concern and reality. according to our statistics even for those very young children. >> we have to communicate better with our children. family dinners, spending time together. very important. heather: keep up those family dinners. doctor ernest, thank you very much for joining us. good donald trump, i'm sorry, john you are back. take it away. jon: donald trump, is he changing his tone? his new campaign chief assures republican leaders that the gop front-runner is about to retool his image and embark on a more professional phase of his presidential campaign. what's that going to look like mark plus, a family wants answers after a man is beaten and left unconscious on a city street as bystanders did nothing. eventually he was run over by a taxi and later died. who they are holding responsible.

>> people just walked by like nothing happened. this is human. this is a person. what if it was your own family?

. heather: right now a quick look at what's to come in this hour of happening now. a 16-year-old girl dies after she is assaulted in a school bathroom. who could be held responsible for her death? plus, as any presidential candidate ever been as disliked

by their opponent as donald trump and hillary clinton? our guest coming up says yes. we tell you who that is and why. and the world of music morning the loss of the legend as prince spans celebrate his fans by listening to his music, sending sales of his biggest it's skyrocketing. jon: in this political season, donald trump is sticking with the game plan that got him thus far but that could change soon. his new campaign chief says the gop front-runner will reveal a more professional side when the time is right. >> you think mister trump will run a more professional campaign? >> it's a donald trump campaign but it will have traditional elements to it. jon: for more on this let's bring in judith miller, pulitzer prize winning investigative reporter, author and fox news contributor. when sweet as bureau chief for the chicago sun-times and you have to admit lynn, so far the campaign donald trump has lung has served them well. >> yes.

but he hasn't clinched yet and he is facing the potential of a contested convention. it seems he made a strategy switch that makes sense and it he wonders in to the zone of being conventional, i think he thinks he has enough support that his followers who may be antiestablishment won't fault him for coming into the republican establishment may be ankle-deep. we will see if he gets up to his knees. jon: he says duty he's going to be more presidential and his supporters are going to be bored with him being presidential. is that a possibility? >> if you have to make the transformation from being class clown to student body president, yes. he's going to have to change the things he says and how he conducts himself. the issue is, will the media buy the new trump 2.0? kinder, gentler, more disciplined.

or will they do what they should have been doing all along which is calling him on misogynist , the anti-muslim, anti-women things he's been saying. will those continue to resonate despite the effort to have a personality transplant? jon: duty, when you look at the current occupant of the oval office, we were promised hope and change and we were going to be this i don't know, united country i guess and this president has gone on to say that compare republicans with terrorists and things like that. everybody who runs a campaign handles the overall oval office differently than they ultimately campaigned on, don't they? >> i honestly wish barack obama much as viewers know. i've been a critic of his foreign-policy but i agree with him when he says that americans

will not collect donald trump. i think the things he says so far to get into front-runner status in the gop will be the things that will defeat him because ultimately americans will ask themselves who isthis man? is it the kinder, gentler , guy who's been a man of the people or is it the man who said all those terrible things to propel himself to this frontrunning status and get us to cover him. jon: lynn, his negatives are high but so long the clintons. >> the question is then can either hillary clinton or hillary clinton has email issue and we don't know how that will unfold on in the coming weeks and months but there's a lot that donald trump will have to's face because if what judy says is going to happen and that is he has more media scrutiny than ever before, if he has tougher interviews and

if he has surrogates that are out there speaking for him more in which case they will take questions that i don't think his negatives get washed away because hefaces an opponent who also has negatives . this is still a rough and tumble few weeks but i think, isn't the question judy and john, what can donald trump do that is believable with his base now to change his negatives without taking a reversal on the core issues that got him to where he is today? jon: i don't suppose judy that needs to reversed position on some of the core issues but he needs to maybe temper the language that he has used to bring those issues to the public attention. >> paul manafort already told the republican committee members behind closed doors that what you've been hearing from trump is kind of an act. that's the word used. we know that because the new york times get doctor tate of paul manafort's remarks and donald trump himself this

morning said, he said things that offended people and hurt them, that was entertainment. people are going to ask what does he really believe about women? are we pigs? are we the other things he's called us? what does he believe about mexicans? which is the real donald trump and i think donald trump changing who he is and his message is a very tricky business. he has to do it in order to get elected but i don't think it will play well with the base. this is a moment for the republican party. what is this party about mark is the party of lincoln want to nominate a man who so totally disagrees with so many of the poor republican positions. that's really the challenge. i'm not sure he could persuade the people in that room and that beach resort hotel yesterday and he is the answer to their nomination prayers. jon: everybody who wants to win the white house seems to say one thing and sometimes do another. that's the way it seems to go. judy miller, lynn sweet, thank you both.

and judy's book, the story: are reporters journey comes out this weekend paperback. i wanted to flag that for your attention. >> thank you john. the one you bet it. heather: new information coming in as new surveillance video shows more than a dozen people doing absolutely nothing to help a chicago bartender as he is attacked on the street. we want to warn you the video you are about to see is disturbing. it happened to 32-year-old marcus gaines.he was beaten unconscious on the street outside the 7-eleven in chicago. he was lying in the crosswalk as people just walked on by, some of them didn't even seem to notice. he then was accidentally run over by a taxi. he died later at hospital. his family now filing a wrongful death, negligent lawsuit against several businesses and also the taxi company. joining us now, fred kesey, a former presidential prosecutor

and former prosecutor and also criminal defense attorney. good to see you both. fred, let's start with you. we all know there are good samaritan laws but is there any kind of legal obligation on the general public to help in a situation like this? >> no heather. unfortunately their art. the question about what's legal and what's right and wrong are sometimes different things. i tried to teach my sons what is right and wrong but the law doesn't impose a duty, which is an affirmative reason to act in these situations. these good samaritan laws to talk about protect people if they act from being sued from negligence because we want to foster and encourage people to act but i think it's repugnant that these people stood around and watched this man died. what has happened to us as a society? heather: it's upsetting to see. before we get more in the legality of this, i wonder if you're in your practice you see more of this where people have a failure and seemingly a disregard for life where they don't try to intervene? it's awful. look, we are all flawed human

beings in one way or another and there's just too much violence and at least in appearance, when you see something like this there's a lack of caring. i will say that sometimes what you see can be deceptive. chicago is notoriously plagued by gun violence, gang violence and you know, an innocent bystander so to speak that sees something like thishappen and the immediate aftermath thereof may not be acting as far as actually approaching the body and getting involved. not because they don't care but because they are worried they may become targets themselves . let's hope that's what was going on here and take a more optimistic view of humanity . heather: >> one person went up to the body and took the guys wallet. i hear what you are saying, and that's a terrible, terrible environment. you and i both get that as former prosecutors but at the end of the day, the bottom line is that people need to help

when they see others in trouble. heather: ,,who could be facing charges question mark he was inside the 711. does the story have any legal obligation? >> i agree with fred with respect to the good samaritan laws as you brought up and the innocent bystander does not have any affirmative duty. in a classic case you learn in law school, if you are walking by and you see a baby face down in a puddle, you have no obligation to turn that may be over. morally, you hope any reasonable human being would do so. 7-eleven and is in a different situation because remember, mister carter, the tragic victim was a customer at the store so he's considered an invitee. he was on the premises for the benefit of 7-eleven. the 7-eleven security guard did make efforts to intervene. the question in a civil suit is whether those efforts were reasonable and of course as the 911 tape, it sounds like the

store manager was calling into 911 so 7-eleven will say look, we may have had duty and we fulfill the duty. we tried to get our security involve and when this individual was assaulted in the street we immediately called 911. heather: real tragedy. i want to ask you about another case out of delaware. a 16-year-old high school girl died after she was assaulted in the bathroom at her high school. the family of anita joyner francis questioning how safe the school was. i like you to listen to this . >> if the schools were a safe place you could drop your kids off and they would come home after school. but apparently that's not the case with some of the schools now.all i know is that my daughters gone and she was the love of my life. and it hurts. heather: witnesses say amy got into a fight with another girl in the school bathroom over a boy and that's when she was

suddenly jumped by a group of girls in that bathroom. one of them allegedly slamming her head against the sink and that is how it is believed she died. the one about the safety at that school friend?is the school now liable for her death? >> you always wonder about whether the school took reasonable precautions as tom was saying to protect the students. we send our kids to high school to get their hearts broken ultimately , to learn. not to end up dead. in any society which doesn't protect its children is really doomed to fail. heather: should they have had because they had numerous violent felonies that have taken place within that school. within the last year. you think they should have had some sort of hall monitor or something. >> welcome hall monitor. they could have asked closed-circuit surveillance, a bunch of things. there were several violent felonies in that school in the last seven days, the last

couple months and the school is on notice that these are dangerous conditions and they better do something or they will face rias liabilities. but in the meantime, long one person need to find thesepeople and prosecute them as adults and charge them with murder . heather: tom, quickly. do you agree with that, charge them with murder? >> this is an equally tragic situation but it's different because the school has a dutyto protect its students . heather: thank you so much for your expertise. jon: you might think these two front-runners are incredibly unpopular but history shows us those negative numbers might not matter. >> h booty... you could just book a different resort. like in alaska. they've got igloos.

jon: when you hear the word unfavorable you might think of the republican and democratic front-runners. our next guest says history

shows this is not the first time a candidate who seems unpopular could wind up in the oval office. doug cohen's presidential historian, also author of the presidents first year and has made a study of this kind of thing. has there ever been a campaign like this? i mean, in terms of past history. how would you compare this primary season? >> this one definitely comes close to 1860. 1860, abraham lincoln was running against three other people. he wasn't even on the ballot in 10 southern states and he was finally elected with 39 percent of the popular vote so he has to go down in history as the single most negative elected president. jon: so negatives don't necessarily mean you're not going to win the presidency first of all and not going to do well in the second case. >> well, you actually get into a different subject here because you get into the idea of plurality presidents and the primary plurality presidents

have been abraham lincoln, wardrobe wilson and bill clinton. and in each case, they had more than one candidate they were running against and in each case, in the case of bill clinton and abraham lincoln they won with 39 percent of the vote. woodrow wilson won with 41 percent of the vote and that's not what you would call a mandate. there were problems that emanated fromthat . jon: when we talk about some of the front-runners, 65 percent of the voters say they could not see themselves supporting donald trump. 61 percent say they could not back ted cruz. 58 percent say they couldn't vote for hillary clinton. one of those people is likely to win this office, aren't they? >> that's why negative views do not always result in negative votes. so what people do is they vote for someone they didn't care for in the first place but you are going to still end up with a president in most cases who

ends up with near a majority. by majority, you can actually call it an actual majority, 48 to 49 percent because you can get right in candidates and other strange things but it's when you have more than two candidates running that you end up with morality candidates and that's when the negative aspect shows itself but in this coming election, that's not going to happen. they are going to end up owning for donald trump or hillary clinton which by the way, donald trump is going to be the nominee. i've run my figures myself, the polling shows he's going to have 1400 votes. my work shows he's going to have 1500 votes so unless something cataclysmic happens, he's going to be the nominee. hillary clinton is going to be the nominee we are going to contend with. jon: those candidates once they reach the office always face a first year that is different from anything they ever expected. i know you've made a study of that. we will ask you about that when we come back. >>

[ male announcer ] eligible for medicare? that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, they could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call today to request a free decision guide. with these types of plans,

you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients... plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. join the millions who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp... and provided by unitedhealthcare insurance company, which has over 30 years of experience behind it. with all the good years ahead, look for the experience and commitment to go the distance with you. call now to request your free decision guide.

jon: .comis back with us, historian and author of the presidents first year. we are getting indications from the trump campaign that the rough and tumble manner that he has maintained during the primary season is about to change that we are going to see a more refined and presidential donald trump . as any other candidate in the past done the same kind of thing, pivoted ahead of the general election? >> all the candidates that to some degree. richard nixon was famous for saying run to the right for republicans of the primary and run to the center in the general election but the classic cases andrew jackson. he was a rough cut frontiersman and he brought a very egalitarian nature to the office but once he got into office he became former presidential and that's the primary comparison to donald trump. jon: i know you have studied

presidential first years in office. everybody faces challenges they were not expecting. what looks, i mean to you what looks to be ahead for whoever wins this race? >> the interesting thing is, once they take office they don't know what they're going to get. and it's the same thing you find in any organization. it's always easier to be the second or third person rather than be the leader and when somebody takes a leadership role and they are responsible for their actions it's a whole different system. that's why none of these people are prepared for it. the two things that make a person most prepared historically are if they showed personal courage, particularly in a combat situation and had a solid knowledge of history. the roosevelt, john kennedy, both fall into those categories. people running now do not have that. neither one of them would be considered in history, neither one of them have shown any area

of personal courage so what they're going to be facing are some very tough decisions coming up. jon: we were talking about this earlier with our media panel. what about the current occupant of the oval office? didn't have a lot of political experience. campaigned on hope and change. how would you assess barack obama's first year? >> he made mistakes in his first year like all the others. his primary mistake in his first year is he put most of his marbles on the healthcare act and he got through but in doing so he managed to lose congress and he's had an uphill battle with that ever since. he also had a learning curve on foreign policy but he's been picking up steam on that. his poll numbers have been improving recently. jon: king of the presidents foreign policy, he is meeting with british prime minister david cameron nd in a fox news

alert, they are about to speak outside the prime minister's residence. doug cohen, presidential historian. thank you for your insight. we've been led to believe the president is about to emerge from the prime ministers residence on downing street. they have been meeting for the last hour or so we understand and we are going to get some kind of summation of that meeting from the two of them. the president was expected to weigh in on the idea of britain withdrawing from the european union and a lot of brits telling him too but out. heather: there is a fascinating back story here for anyone who's interested in international affairs and also our domestic politics and the word is that british prime minister asked president obama to come over there because president obama is more popular than cameron is over there, especially with young people and cameron and obama both want the uk to stay within the european union and this vote comes up in the month of july the idea is that president

obama would be able to weigh in and convince those young voters to keep the uk in the eu. jon: but you have to wonder why it is so vitally important to this president to weigh in on another nation's politics. heather: our president said he believes there is a stronger world basically if the uk stays within the eu and one of the questions we will talk with casey mcclellan about in the next hour is what does this mean for us if the uk were to leave the eu, what does it mean for our national security and the us economy. jon: but look what happened within the eu. the universal passport essentially that you get if you are admitted to one european union country, say greece. you can travel freely around the other european union's without a visa. and as tens and thousands of syrian refugees have swarmed into europe, there are concerns

especially in britain about whether all those people have arrived with the best intentions. we know at least one of the paris attackers was somebody who arrived as a so-called refugee. heather: that is a huge security concern there as it's a security concern we share here with our visa waiver program so expect that folks there following this closely will continue to explore that angle and figure out what they want for the future of their country you want to we are expecting david cameron, the prime minister and the president toemerge . we would hope to have them a bit earlier but it's taking in time. heather: we will hear what they have to say later and desperate say, hey president obama, but out. jon: it's going to be fascinating. you're going to want to hear it. we will have it for you ahead on outnumbered. we will see you back here in one hour and outnumbered starts now. a fox news alert. we are waiting a joint news conference with president barack obama and ridge prime minister david cameron. they are holding a news

conference following a meeting in london where they have been discussing we are told efforts to combat crisis as well as discussions over the referendum over whether or not great britain should remainin the european union . barack obama has weighed in on the case for why he believes why they should remain in the eu. the two have been discussing that today and michelle obama, the first lady had lunch with green to celebrate her 90th birthday and then, prime minister david cameron and the president meeting to discuss a joint effort in the fight against terrorism and isis. we are told that he is on his way to 10 downing street. it should be arriving any moment. we're expecting that news conference and they are going to buy the way waiting, the beginning of this news conference.